I have bit my tongue for far too long on this issue (unless you ask my closest friends or my wife). This Jose Valverde experiment is annoying the absolute piss out of me for more reasons than I can count (though I will try in the below post).
The raw numbers:
I thought we were through with this mess at the end of last year. I could see it coming a mile away....anyone with a reasonable baseball IQ who watches the game and understands statistics could see it coming. The guy clearly wasn't the same pitcher in 2012 that we was in previous seasons. Here is his K/INN rate since 2007, the year he became a full time closer with Arizona: 1.21, 1.15, 1.04, 1.00, 0.95, 0.70. Pretty distinct trend there, and something that you could see plainly with the naked eye. The guy was simply struggling to miss bats (more on that later), which is the primary thing a pitcher can control.
What makes this more annoying is that I would have to read articles, and hear people on sports radio touting his high save percentage, and that he is still getting the job done. This was exactly the wrong kind of negative reinforcement that the Tigers brass did not need, as they were constantly putting a pitcher into a critical situation, who was getting by on pure good fortune in a small sample size.
He has 2 pitches
I only say this because I've heard a rumor that Valverde actually has 2 pitches, a fastball, and a splitter. I say it's a rumor because I can't recall seeing anything other than a fastball in the last 1 year plus. Let's first ignore the absurdity of any pitcher ever getting to the highest level of the game and only throwing 1 pitch - a fastball, as it seems ridiculous to me to for it to even be done at a high school level.
So let's first assume that throwing only 1 pitch is rational. If that's the case, you would have to assume that fastball is a top shelf plus pitch, probably lighting up the radar gun near 100 MPH with a good deal of movement, and perhaps even good location and command. That's not the case with Valverde, his fastball regularly clocks in around 91-94 MPH, with the occasional blip at 96 MPH if he somehow catches a hot radar gun. Movement??? What movement, the damn thing seems to be straight as an arrow, flat with zero drop. The capper to this? He can't even control it, evidenced by his recent outing on May 12th, where he walked the leadoff hitter, and throughout the inning had thrown more balls than strikes.
During yesterday's outing, Rod Allen, the Tigers color commentator, who has rarely had an insight that I considered to be groundbreaking, pointed out that of Valverde's first 20 pitches, all were fastballs. No shit!!! If Allen can recognize it, then you better believe other teams are going to pick up on it (unless you are as blind as the Tigers apparently).
Imagine your hitting approach when facing Valverde. You have to be patient, as you don't know whether he is going to throw strikes. You are sitting dead red on fastball, as there is zero chance you are going to receive anything other than that. If you happen to get behind in the count by letting a good fastball go by, not to worry, you are certainly going to get another one.
At this point (and it was the same last year), Valverde is throwing the ball hard, trying to get it over the plate, with zero movement and basically hoping that the other team either doesn't hit it hard, or hits it right at somebody.
Intangibles - settling effect on the bullpen
It's been argued, primarily by Tigers brass, that installing Valverde as the closer has a settling effect on the rest of the bullpen, as the other pitchers better know their roles. They do have a point to this, but this could also be achieved by naming me the closer....or anyone else on the team.
Others may argue that if you don't have a replacement in mind, then you can't argue Valverde being the closer. To that I agree, so my response is ANYONE on the roster, and quite possibly anybody on the AAA roster. I would even allow Don Kelly a shot at it, at least he threw an off-speed pitch in the inning he pitched a couple of years ago.
Conclusions:
There comes a point when the tangibles begin to outweigh the intangibles, we can only hope that day comes before the real games start (and this is assuming we win the division and are in the playoffs, which is a giant leap this early in the season. Having Valverde as the closer is doing the entire team and fanbase a great disservice, as it is not putting the team in anywhere near the best position to win a game, championship, etc....
Monday, May 13, 2013
Thursday, May 02, 2013
2013 Kentucky Derby preview
My prediction is at the bottom of this lengthy post. I may update this as I think about the race a little further.
1. Black Onyx - Disastrous draw for him. His running style seems to be the worst for this spot possible, as he tends to stalk close to the lead (within 5 lengths of the lead at every call in his career). It will be very difficult to get good position without either using a lot of his horse early, or laying way back and coming with one big run. Add to that his best two races have been on turf and poly, means you are asking him to do an awful lot.
Verdict - I can play him for 4th, and maybe 3rd since I think he will be coming late, but I think any better is asking for the world.
2. Oxbow - Another who did not get the best draw. Off of a bit of a bad trip in his last race, and if you excuse the last race he would be a bit more highly regarded. Ridden by Gary Stevens, and out of Awesome Again, meaning the distance should not be a problem. The bad news is that in his last 3 races he has been beaten by 4 of these, and they are not the most highly regarded of the bunch.
Verdict - I have a feeling I'm going to want him on my tickets. The jockey/trainer combo, combined with the pedigree and the long odds make him one of the more attractive if not the most attractive bomb in the field. Not enough for the win, but maybe as high as 2nd.
3. Revolutionary - Off of 3 straight wins, and out of the red hot barn of Pletcher. It was nice to see him race and win outside of New York too at the Fairgrounds. The bad news is that he was life and death to beat Mylute, a horse who I don't think wants any part of more distance. He does have a 102 BSF in his maiden win at Aqueduct, but it was on an off track, which is something I am always skeptical of. Take that race out of his record, and his highest BSF is 93, which puts him outside of the top players. I like the War Pass connections, and Borel in the Derby can never be a bad thing. He seems to be training awesome at Churchill, and with Churchill being a bit of a unique surface in horses taking to it, you can't ignore it.
Verdict - I like him as one of my key horses, though I think he is a cut below the top tier. It would be a terrible idea to ignore him based on the awesome training tab leading up to the race, and the Borel/Churchill factor. That being said, he is likely to be a bit overbet due to Calvin.
4. Golden Soul - Another who could crash the party coming late, and make tickets pay a ton. He closed well in the La Derby, but was no match for the winner. Good result in past race at Churchill, and Albarado knows Churchill.
Verdict - On my tickets for 4th for sure, and maybe as high as 3rd.
5. Normandy Invasion - By Tapit, who is a great sire, but he's never been known to sire horses for much more distance than a miler. Did finish less than a length off Verrazano, but you have to wonder how wound up they had Verrazano for that race, since they didn't need it to make the field. His best races have been at Aqueduct, which is a track I am always a little skeptical of, as it seems to be one of those "horse for the course" type of places. He seems to be training very well leading up to this.
Verdict - I think I can play him for as high as the win in some tickets, but I'm just not sure the mile and a quarter is right for him. I feel like he is going to be overbet. I do have a small future wager on him at 17-1, but that would not even come close to covering my Derby bets.
6. Mylute - Looked like he had every chance to beat Revolutionary, yet couldn't get past him in the Louisiana Derby. It won't get any easier with added distance and a much tougher field. He closed well in the Louisiana Derby, which was a new dimension for him, but that may have been more due to the swift early pace, rather than discovering a new running style. Top speed figure of 93, combined with distance limitations being out of Midnight Lute don't give me a feeling he is ready to take a step forward with the added distance.
Verdict: I'm not particularly fond of him, but may have to use him since he will be one of the few who are running late.
7. Giant Finish - Best race thus far has been on Poly, and he couldn't beat Black Onyx while being in the front end of a slow pace. There are better horses who will be near the front end than this one. In my book he is a toss.
Verdict: Toss him
8. Goldencents - Needed a big Santa Anita Derby to get in, and responded with a lifetime best performance, and perhaps most importantly a 105 beyer. The SA Derby was a path to win the Derby last year, validating it as a prep race again now that it is on dirt. Rookie jockey, coupled with a horse that has had trouble relaxing in some of his races can be a somewhat scary combination (though the rookie jock had no problem last year). I also question his ability at the distance, being out of Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday. We saw with Shenghai Bobby just how much distance he wanted.
Verdict - The good news is I have a future bet on him at 49-1, the bad news is that I don't think it cashes. I think he's going to be very close to the lead, and unless allowed to go very slowly and freely on that lead, I think he's a player until the far turn, when he will get swallowed up by the closers. My initial inclination is to leave him off the tickets entirely, as reckless as that may seem.
May 2nd update: Upon further review though, that does seem totally reckless to ignore him. He has a tie for the highest last race Beyer, has the highest last race Beyer in the field (an angle that has produced a few surprising longshot winners in Charismatic and War Emblem), and will be forwardly placed in a race without a lot of pace. I still think he will be too aggressive early and not be able to hold for the distance, but ignoring him could be a fatal flaw.
9. Overanalyze - From the Pletcher barn, which means you have to respect him. His Arkansas Derby win was visually impressive, but yielded a very low Beyer of 88. On the down side, a turd like Frac Daddy finished 2nd, which immediately calls into question the quality of the race. Out of Dixie Union, which I believe is the same sire as Union Rags, and those horses are always very well regarded. He showed big time ability in the Remsen Stakes as a 2 year old last year, throwing a 99 beyer. He hasn't broke 90 in either of his races this year yet, but the way he has been training leading up to this has been solid. He is very gutty as well, as it appeared that he would be beaten in the Remsen, after Normandy Invasion passed him, and he came again.
Verdict - I have a nice future bet on him also at 49-1. He is one that I am unsure what I am going to do with right now.
10. Palace Malice - By Curlin, it's a bit early to decide how good he is as a sire. He hasn't won since breaking his maiden at Saratoga in August, and his highest Beyer figure is a 94, with that number trending in the wrong direction as the distance increases. Without a significant improvement he is a cut below the best in this field, and he has been training OK leading up to this race, which just isn't good enough in my book.
Verdict - I think I will use him 4th if at all.
11. Lines of Battle - Until Aiden O'Brien proves to me he can travel here for the Derby and compete, he should continually be bet against. Same goes for horses traveling the Dubai route. But the simple truth is that the outsiders that I have been listing outside of the top contenders are so unappealing to me I have to search for a few who may be able to make some noise. He's out of War Front, which is respectable for getting the distance. He just won the UAE derby in decent fashion, however that field was thought to be somewhat weak. The fact that he has never raced on a dirt is scary enough, and it would make me feel a lot better if he were at Churchill training and growing accustomed to the track (ala Animal Kingdom), but I don't believe that has happened either.
Verdict: Unless I see a phenomenal love the track workout, I'm going to have to pass on him.
12. Itsmyluckyday - He nearly has the highest Beyer in the field, but is he just a horse for Gulfstream? He was looking like a potential Derby favorite, until Orb ran by him like he was tied to a post in the Florida Derby. He was still able to hang on for 2nd in that race. Reports have him training well leading up to the race. Sired by Lawyer Ron, who I don't believe is the most suited to mile and a quarter distance.
Verdict - He will be forwardly placed, and potentially in an ideal position on the far turn, and I wouldn't be surprised if he would make the lead on the turn or at the top of the stretch. I think it would be unwise to ignore him, especially because he may be one of the forgotten horses here, and go off at decent odds.
13. Falling Sky - May be the pace setter, or at least will be pressing the pace. Top beyer of a 92 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, nor does being sired by Lion Heart, who actually had the lead in the stretch of the 2004 Derby, but that was a day when early speed dominated, and the track was sloppy following a monsoon. It would take a similar result to let him hit the board in my opinion.
Verdict - Toss him
14. Verrazano - Looks to be the obvious Derby favorite, and deserving at that. Done nothing wrong so far, winning all of his starts, with 2 speed figures over 100 or better, including a 105, which is likely required to win this. Pletcher is hot as hell with his 3 year olds as well. His 4 wins are at 3 different tracks.
There is no bad with him right now, just questions. His sire, More Than Ready, was 4th in the 2000 Kentucky Derby, and sure didn't seem like he wanted that last furlong. I also can't recall any of his progeny being championship caliber horses at the classic distance. He has been very forwardly placed in all of his races thus far. Typically in the Derby you want to be sitting a little further back due what is usually a hot pace. Can he relax enough to get a good trip?
Verdict - He looks to be a dominant player, and he should be ignored at your own risk.
15. Charming Kitten - He's a Kitten's Joy horse who just threw his career high Beyer on polytrack....hmmm....and now he's coming to the Derby. We already went through this with Dean's Kitten a few years ago, and he ran 14th more highly regarded than this one. That career high Beyer, again on Polytrack, was only an 88. So you have to find reason to think he is going to improve double digit points on a surface that Kitten's Joy progeny have proven to not have an affinity for, to believe he can hit the board. And he also has to do it on a surface that he has never run on before, as well as only having a 3rd in 2 starts on the Poly. He does have Pletcher, but he's probably fairly busy with his top contenders.
Verdict - Toss him
16. Orb - Unbeaten in his last 4 starts. Speed figures are a little bit light, with a high of 97, however perhaps more impressively, he closed 3 times at Gulfstream, most of which is on the outside, which is atypical of that track, where a traditional inside speed bias exists. Sired by Malibu Moon, with AP Indy in his bloodline, the distance shouldn't be a problem. He also is not a typical 1 run deep closer, as he has been within 5 lengths of the front at all calls of both the Florida Derby and his claiming win in January.
On 4/29 he had what many consider to be the most impressive work of anyone in the field, and he has Rosario on the mount, who is winning everything in sight, and riding with extreme confidence right now.
Verdict - He feels like a key horse to me if there ever was one.
17. Will Take Charge - He kinda came out of nowhere to win the Rebel at 28-1, following an awful performance in the Southwest Stakes. That win was at Oaklawn, which is a track that tends to portend future Churchill success, but then again so was the Southwest. He raced at Churchill last year, finishing last in a Grade 2 race out of 13 horses. Looking at that field now and their poor recent results, it has to lead you to believe that race was a fluke. With a top speed figure of 95, in a race that I already believe was a fluke, leads me to believe that this horse is a throwaway to the tickets. As for the pedigree, Unbridled was a Derby winner, but his son, Unbridled's Song was more of a miler (led the Derby top of stretch before fading to 5th in 1996).
Verdict - Toss him
18. Frac Daddy - I'm not a big fan of Scat Daddy horses in general, and this one has been a turd this year, having to gut out a 2nd place on less than 2 weeks rest in a weak Arkansas Derby to make this field. What gives on a bit of pause though is that his 2 best races last year both occurred at Churchill Downs. The question you have to answer for yourself is "Is he a better horse at Churchill, or was he a better horse last year?" Nothing he has done this year says he can even hit the board, with an 81 beyer for a high!!! He did throw a 91 at Churchill last year, so it at least makes me consider him.
Verdict - He should be an easy toss based on current form, but the Churchill results will at least make me consider playing him in 3rd place, but probably not at all above that.
19. Java's War - I was very impressed visually with his Blue Grass, though the speed figure was only 89. His inability to break cleanly in any of his starts is very worrisome. With this year's pace scenario more likely to be tepid than hot, getting a clean break is even more paramount. Having Leparoux in a big race in a Derby field, I would expect a less than clean trip, and probably a belated effort late on the outside. Good post position draw though for him, actually helps Leparoux as being on the outside should help him stay out of trouble.
Verdict - The pace scenario is likely to not be in his favor, his speed figures show him to be outside of the top contenders, and his inability to break clean are huge negatives, along with a jockey who until proven that he can navigate a good Derby trip has to be doubted are all very negative factors. I think I can play him to be picking up pieces late in 4th place, and potentially as high as 3rd.
20. Vyjack - Has done little wrong in his career, winning his first 4 races, and then finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial, losing to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. On the bad side, his top beyer is a 96, and his top Beyer at a distance of a mile or more is 93, which is a trend in the wrong direction. My thinking is that he is a horse that absolutely does not want any added ground, and while seeming to be game, will more likely be getting passed rather than passing horses.
Preliminary verdict - There are too many I like better with a similar running style, and there are some that I think that will be coming late that will make me pass on playing this one. You have to take a stand somewhere.
Prediction: I drilled it big time in 2011 calling the exacta in Animal Kingdom and Nehro, hitting the tri, and being a part of a super, all in all killing it that year. Last year, not so much, but I thought last year was an insanely difficult race. This year I think the favorites are just a lot better than the also rans. Note that if the race is on a muddy/off track, I will stick with this, but have a lot less faith in my selections since I suck in wet Churchill conditions.
Predicted order finish:
1st - Orb
2nd - Revolutionary
3rd - Verrazano
4th - Java's War
5th - Itsmyluckyday
1. Black Onyx - Disastrous draw for him. His running style seems to be the worst for this spot possible, as he tends to stalk close to the lead (within 5 lengths of the lead at every call in his career). It will be very difficult to get good position without either using a lot of his horse early, or laying way back and coming with one big run. Add to that his best two races have been on turf and poly, means you are asking him to do an awful lot.
Verdict - I can play him for 4th, and maybe 3rd since I think he will be coming late, but I think any better is asking for the world.
2. Oxbow - Another who did not get the best draw. Off of a bit of a bad trip in his last race, and if you excuse the last race he would be a bit more highly regarded. Ridden by Gary Stevens, and out of Awesome Again, meaning the distance should not be a problem. The bad news is that in his last 3 races he has been beaten by 4 of these, and they are not the most highly regarded of the bunch.
Verdict - I have a feeling I'm going to want him on my tickets. The jockey/trainer combo, combined with the pedigree and the long odds make him one of the more attractive if not the most attractive bomb in the field. Not enough for the win, but maybe as high as 2nd.
3. Revolutionary - Off of 3 straight wins, and out of the red hot barn of Pletcher. It was nice to see him race and win outside of New York too at the Fairgrounds. The bad news is that he was life and death to beat Mylute, a horse who I don't think wants any part of more distance. He does have a 102 BSF in his maiden win at Aqueduct, but it was on an off track, which is something I am always skeptical of. Take that race out of his record, and his highest BSF is 93, which puts him outside of the top players. I like the War Pass connections, and Borel in the Derby can never be a bad thing. He seems to be training awesome at Churchill, and with Churchill being a bit of a unique surface in horses taking to it, you can't ignore it.
Verdict - I like him as one of my key horses, though I think he is a cut below the top tier. It would be a terrible idea to ignore him based on the awesome training tab leading up to the race, and the Borel/Churchill factor. That being said, he is likely to be a bit overbet due to Calvin.
4. Golden Soul - Another who could crash the party coming late, and make tickets pay a ton. He closed well in the La Derby, but was no match for the winner. Good result in past race at Churchill, and Albarado knows Churchill.
Verdict - On my tickets for 4th for sure, and maybe as high as 3rd.
5. Normandy Invasion - By Tapit, who is a great sire, but he's never been known to sire horses for much more distance than a miler. Did finish less than a length off Verrazano, but you have to wonder how wound up they had Verrazano for that race, since they didn't need it to make the field. His best races have been at Aqueduct, which is a track I am always a little skeptical of, as it seems to be one of those "horse for the course" type of places. He seems to be training very well leading up to this.
Verdict - I think I can play him for as high as the win in some tickets, but I'm just not sure the mile and a quarter is right for him. I feel like he is going to be overbet. I do have a small future wager on him at 17-1, but that would not even come close to covering my Derby bets.
6. Mylute - Looked like he had every chance to beat Revolutionary, yet couldn't get past him in the Louisiana Derby. It won't get any easier with added distance and a much tougher field. He closed well in the Louisiana Derby, which was a new dimension for him, but that may have been more due to the swift early pace, rather than discovering a new running style. Top speed figure of 93, combined with distance limitations being out of Midnight Lute don't give me a feeling he is ready to take a step forward with the added distance.
Verdict: I'm not particularly fond of him, but may have to use him since he will be one of the few who are running late.
7. Giant Finish - Best race thus far has been on Poly, and he couldn't beat Black Onyx while being in the front end of a slow pace. There are better horses who will be near the front end than this one. In my book he is a toss.
Verdict: Toss him
8. Goldencents - Needed a big Santa Anita Derby to get in, and responded with a lifetime best performance, and perhaps most importantly a 105 beyer. The SA Derby was a path to win the Derby last year, validating it as a prep race again now that it is on dirt. Rookie jockey, coupled with a horse that has had trouble relaxing in some of his races can be a somewhat scary combination (though the rookie jock had no problem last year). I also question his ability at the distance, being out of Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday. We saw with Shenghai Bobby just how much distance he wanted.
Verdict - The good news is I have a future bet on him at 49-1, the bad news is that I don't think it cashes. I think he's going to be very close to the lead, and unless allowed to go very slowly and freely on that lead, I think he's a player until the far turn, when he will get swallowed up by the closers. My initial inclination is to leave him off the tickets entirely, as reckless as that may seem.
May 2nd update: Upon further review though, that does seem totally reckless to ignore him. He has a tie for the highest last race Beyer, has the highest last race Beyer in the field (an angle that has produced a few surprising longshot winners in Charismatic and War Emblem), and will be forwardly placed in a race without a lot of pace. I still think he will be too aggressive early and not be able to hold for the distance, but ignoring him could be a fatal flaw.
9. Overanalyze - From the Pletcher barn, which means you have to respect him. His Arkansas Derby win was visually impressive, but yielded a very low Beyer of 88. On the down side, a turd like Frac Daddy finished 2nd, which immediately calls into question the quality of the race. Out of Dixie Union, which I believe is the same sire as Union Rags, and those horses are always very well regarded. He showed big time ability in the Remsen Stakes as a 2 year old last year, throwing a 99 beyer. He hasn't broke 90 in either of his races this year yet, but the way he has been training leading up to this has been solid. He is very gutty as well, as it appeared that he would be beaten in the Remsen, after Normandy Invasion passed him, and he came again.
Verdict - I have a nice future bet on him also at 49-1. He is one that I am unsure what I am going to do with right now.
10. Palace Malice - By Curlin, it's a bit early to decide how good he is as a sire. He hasn't won since breaking his maiden at Saratoga in August, and his highest Beyer figure is a 94, with that number trending in the wrong direction as the distance increases. Without a significant improvement he is a cut below the best in this field, and he has been training OK leading up to this race, which just isn't good enough in my book.
Verdict - I think I will use him 4th if at all.
11. Lines of Battle - Until Aiden O'Brien proves to me he can travel here for the Derby and compete, he should continually be bet against. Same goes for horses traveling the Dubai route. But the simple truth is that the outsiders that I have been listing outside of the top contenders are so unappealing to me I have to search for a few who may be able to make some noise. He's out of War Front, which is respectable for getting the distance. He just won the UAE derby in decent fashion, however that field was thought to be somewhat weak. The fact that he has never raced on a dirt is scary enough, and it would make me feel a lot better if he were at Churchill training and growing accustomed to the track (ala Animal Kingdom), but I don't believe that has happened either.
Verdict: Unless I see a phenomenal love the track workout, I'm going to have to pass on him.
12. Itsmyluckyday - He nearly has the highest Beyer in the field, but is he just a horse for Gulfstream? He was looking like a potential Derby favorite, until Orb ran by him like he was tied to a post in the Florida Derby. He was still able to hang on for 2nd in that race. Reports have him training well leading up to the race. Sired by Lawyer Ron, who I don't believe is the most suited to mile and a quarter distance.
Verdict - He will be forwardly placed, and potentially in an ideal position on the far turn, and I wouldn't be surprised if he would make the lead on the turn or at the top of the stretch. I think it would be unwise to ignore him, especially because he may be one of the forgotten horses here, and go off at decent odds.
13. Falling Sky - May be the pace setter, or at least will be pressing the pace. Top beyer of a 92 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, nor does being sired by Lion Heart, who actually had the lead in the stretch of the 2004 Derby, but that was a day when early speed dominated, and the track was sloppy following a monsoon. It would take a similar result to let him hit the board in my opinion.
Verdict - Toss him
14. Verrazano - Looks to be the obvious Derby favorite, and deserving at that. Done nothing wrong so far, winning all of his starts, with 2 speed figures over 100 or better, including a 105, which is likely required to win this. Pletcher is hot as hell with his 3 year olds as well. His 4 wins are at 3 different tracks.
There is no bad with him right now, just questions. His sire, More Than Ready, was 4th in the 2000 Kentucky Derby, and sure didn't seem like he wanted that last furlong. I also can't recall any of his progeny being championship caliber horses at the classic distance. He has been very forwardly placed in all of his races thus far. Typically in the Derby you want to be sitting a little further back due what is usually a hot pace. Can he relax enough to get a good trip?
Verdict - He looks to be a dominant player, and he should be ignored at your own risk.
15. Charming Kitten - He's a Kitten's Joy horse who just threw his career high Beyer on polytrack....hmmm....and now he's coming to the Derby. We already went through this with Dean's Kitten a few years ago, and he ran 14th more highly regarded than this one. That career high Beyer, again on Polytrack, was only an 88. So you have to find reason to think he is going to improve double digit points on a surface that Kitten's Joy progeny have proven to not have an affinity for, to believe he can hit the board. And he also has to do it on a surface that he has never run on before, as well as only having a 3rd in 2 starts on the Poly. He does have Pletcher, but he's probably fairly busy with his top contenders.
Verdict - Toss him
16. Orb - Unbeaten in his last 4 starts. Speed figures are a little bit light, with a high of 97, however perhaps more impressively, he closed 3 times at Gulfstream, most of which is on the outside, which is atypical of that track, where a traditional inside speed bias exists. Sired by Malibu Moon, with AP Indy in his bloodline, the distance shouldn't be a problem. He also is not a typical 1 run deep closer, as he has been within 5 lengths of the front at all calls of both the Florida Derby and his claiming win in January.
On 4/29 he had what many consider to be the most impressive work of anyone in the field, and he has Rosario on the mount, who is winning everything in sight, and riding with extreme confidence right now.
Verdict - He feels like a key horse to me if there ever was one.
17. Will Take Charge - He kinda came out of nowhere to win the Rebel at 28-1, following an awful performance in the Southwest Stakes. That win was at Oaklawn, which is a track that tends to portend future Churchill success, but then again so was the Southwest. He raced at Churchill last year, finishing last in a Grade 2 race out of 13 horses. Looking at that field now and their poor recent results, it has to lead you to believe that race was a fluke. With a top speed figure of 95, in a race that I already believe was a fluke, leads me to believe that this horse is a throwaway to the tickets. As for the pedigree, Unbridled was a Derby winner, but his son, Unbridled's Song was more of a miler (led the Derby top of stretch before fading to 5th in 1996).
Verdict - Toss him
18. Frac Daddy - I'm not a big fan of Scat Daddy horses in general, and this one has been a turd this year, having to gut out a 2nd place on less than 2 weeks rest in a weak Arkansas Derby to make this field. What gives on a bit of pause though is that his 2 best races last year both occurred at Churchill Downs. The question you have to answer for yourself is "Is he a better horse at Churchill, or was he a better horse last year?" Nothing he has done this year says he can even hit the board, with an 81 beyer for a high!!! He did throw a 91 at Churchill last year, so it at least makes me consider him.
Verdict - He should be an easy toss based on current form, but the Churchill results will at least make me consider playing him in 3rd place, but probably not at all above that.
19. Java's War - I was very impressed visually with his Blue Grass, though the speed figure was only 89. His inability to break cleanly in any of his starts is very worrisome. With this year's pace scenario more likely to be tepid than hot, getting a clean break is even more paramount. Having Leparoux in a big race in a Derby field, I would expect a less than clean trip, and probably a belated effort late on the outside. Good post position draw though for him, actually helps Leparoux as being on the outside should help him stay out of trouble.
Verdict - The pace scenario is likely to not be in his favor, his speed figures show him to be outside of the top contenders, and his inability to break clean are huge negatives, along with a jockey who until proven that he can navigate a good Derby trip has to be doubted are all very negative factors. I think I can play him to be picking up pieces late in 4th place, and potentially as high as 3rd.
20. Vyjack - Has done little wrong in his career, winning his first 4 races, and then finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial, losing to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. On the bad side, his top beyer is a 96, and his top Beyer at a distance of a mile or more is 93, which is a trend in the wrong direction. My thinking is that he is a horse that absolutely does not want any added ground, and while seeming to be game, will more likely be getting passed rather than passing horses.
Preliminary verdict - There are too many I like better with a similar running style, and there are some that I think that will be coming late that will make me pass on playing this one. You have to take a stand somewhere.
Prediction: I drilled it big time in 2011 calling the exacta in Animal Kingdom and Nehro, hitting the tri, and being a part of a super, all in all killing it that year. Last year, not so much, but I thought last year was an insanely difficult race. This year I think the favorites are just a lot better than the also rans. Note that if the race is on a muddy/off track, I will stick with this, but have a lot less faith in my selections since I suck in wet Churchill conditions.
Predicted order finish:
1st - Orb
2nd - Revolutionary
3rd - Verrazano
4th - Java's War
5th - Itsmyluckyday
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