Larry Johnson is the 2006 consensus #1 pick in all fantasy football circles, but I question whether or not that should be the case. I will outline the reasons below:
Recent history is riddled with RB’s who have torn it up for less than a full season, only to fall flat on their face the following season. In 2005, those players were Julius Jones and Kevin Jones (both correctly pointed out as risks by me prior to the season last year). A few years before that it was William Green. One would be advised to look at recent history, and not just 9 game splits when it comes down to projecting the 2006 season.
The Chiefs offensive system is different. New Head Coach, new offensive co-ordinator. Herm Edwards teams will never be confused with offensive juggernauts. Curtis Martin had some good years there, but nowhere near the kind of numbers that people are predicting out of Johnson.
An improved Chiefs defense (remember, Edwards preaches defense) will likely result in less touches, less wide open games, etc….
Offensive line problems. The loss of Willie Roaf could be a huge impact on the entire offensive scheme. His retirement came unexpected, allowing the Chiefs little time to prepare or counter.
Finally, I don’t expect Johnson to fall on his face and rush for 600 yards or anything ridiculous. The Chiefs don’t have any other valid RB’s, so Johnson will get the lion’s share of the work. But, I think 1200 yards and 10-12 TD’s is far more realistic then the 1800+ yards and 18+ TD’s people expect.
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