2009 Kentucky Derby preview

My opinions are subject to change between now and the Derby based on odds, the pace scenario, post positions, and the track bias that day.

All of these are listed in order of Mike Watchmakers projected Derby odds:

I Want Revenge (9-2) – Got beat twice in a row by Pioneerof the Nile out West, so came to Aqueduct and through two monster races under two entirely different sets of circumstances, including his last race where he was nearly left in the starting gate and spotted the field 5 lengths. Big contender, especially given him showing he can win from on the pace or off the pace.

Quality Road (5-1) – Two straight huge races in FLA, both over 110 beyers, including a win over high touted Dunkirk. Figures to be close to what is likely not going to be a very hot pace. My concern on him is his ability to get the mile and a quarter with only 2 routes on his resume. Check the dosage here.

Dunkirk (6-1) – Lightly raced and looks full of talent. Sire is Unbridled’s Song, and I remember his Derby, where he was clear at the top of the stretch but couldn’t hold on. I think he is one that will make a move on the turn and then fade/flatten out in the end.

Friesan Fire (8-1) – Looks and feels like a Derby winner to me. Has 7 races under his belt, but will have 6 weeks off leading to the Derby. Drew clear in the Louisiana Derby and I think he may be sitting on a big race come Derby day.

Pioneerof the Nile (8-1) – If you like I Want Revenge, you have to like him, and at a better price. His Beyers are short, but Revenge made a big step forward going from synthetic to dirt, and it can be projected that Pioneer will as well. His running style may hurt with a slower pace than most Derby’s expected, but his last race showed him staying very close to the pace. If a hot pace is expected, he could move forward even more.

Chocolate Candy (15-1) - Just a length behind Pioneer in his last start, and the lack of pace in Santa Anita likely hurt him, but looking at his running line, I just don’t think he’s good enough. May be good enough for 3rd-4th.

Desert Party (15-1) – The more highly touted of the Goldophin pair, hard to figure with all of his 3 year old campaign being in UAE. I’ll have to compare his ratings to other horses to get a comparable Beyer figure. But until Goldophin shows they can get it done in the Derby, inclined to avoid.

Hold Me Back (20-1) – Would be helped by a live pace, and if the pace completely collapses he could prove to be this year’s Giacamo. I don’t think it’s likely to happen, but he could grab a piece. I also feel he could be sitting on a 105 beyer. I smell a potential 3rd placer here.

Musket Man (20-1) – 5 wins in 6, but top Beyer figure of 98, and that was in a weak Illinois Derby field, a race that I watched. Running style suits Derby winning style, but I just don’t think he’s fast enough.

Papa Clem (20-1) – Profile looks similar to Friesan Fire, however, Friesan Fire hammered him the only time they raced together. Papa’s last race was an all out win over a horse that suffered a major injury too. Although he looks like a decent longshot, I am guessing the Derby chase has taken a lot out of him. Looking past.

General Quarters (30-1) – Difficult horse to figure. Ran a bigger race in the Blue Grass in very slow fractions, near the front end. His other big race, the G3 Davis was also in very slow fractions. While the pace will not be ultra fast, I expect it to be 23 and 46 and change to the half. I also question his ability to go the distance.

Mr. Hot Stuff (30-1) – Can’t argue with the lineage, and the ownership knows what they are doing. I don’t think he’s fast enough to win…but he looks to be cut in the mold of Denis of Cork (last years 3rd placer), and I am definitely playing him on my tickets for 3rd and 4th.

Regal Ransom (30-1) – The other half of the Goldophin group. Maybe he liked the extra distance his last race in finally being able to get past Desert Party. I again question the Goldophin angle, but like the price on him far more than his stable mate.

Square Eddie (30-1) – This one will put in an honest effort, but simply isn’t fast enough, and will need a career effort to hit the board. I may play as 4th if at all.

West Side Bernie (30-1) – How can you argue with 30-1 on a horse coming off a 101 beyer? I’m not sure of the lineage and ability to make the distance though. He also couldn’t beat I Want Revenge despite the hellish trip for him. Still, the price intrigues me, and of the long shots, he’s the one that has shown the most promise so far.

Win Willy (30-1) – Sire is a Derby winner. This one seems to like to close from the clouds, which is normally a bad idea in a 20 horse derby field, and is even a worse idea in a slower pace. Still, you have to believe that he will be making an honest run late, and could easily hit the board. Possible win candidate if the pace is faster, and early speed is having a problem holding.

Charitable Man (50-1) – Very lightly raced, threw two big races as a 2 year old (93,96 beyers) and a clunker in the Blue Grass. It’s very possible he didn’t like the Polytrack, and he also could have needed that race. Based on his 2 year old ability, he has every right to throw a 100+ beyer this race. If he goes off anywhere near 25-1 he is worth playing.

Jeranimo (50-1) – I have no idea on this horse, never saw his PP’s.

Mafaaz (80-1) – I can’t find his PP’s, but I remember looking at them and seeing low 80 beyers. He made the field by winning some stupid race, but probably has little to no shot of doing anything here.

Advice (not listed) – Showed a huge closing move in the Lexington with a slow pace, yielding a career Beyer by 11 pts. Will need to move forward another 15 points to win, which isn’t likely with 2 weeks between starts. 4th maybe.

Flying Private (not listed) – Son of a Derby winner, a 700K purchase and trained by a several time Derby winner. But that hasn’t translated into the races. Career best Beyer of 94, simply isn’t good enough to contend.

Mine that Bird (not listed) – Zero chance.

Summer Bird (not listed) – Late bloomer as 1st race was March 1st. Huge closing move to get 3rd in the Arkansas Derby. Unlikely to get much of a pace to run at. Could be rounding into form around Belmont time. Candidate to hit the board if he runs.