A quick recap of the fantasy season thus far. I will dissect the teams by league, giving pre-season thoughts that I wrote up first about the team, followed by thoughts now that nearly 9 weeks of the season are complete.
Champions Club:
Pre-season: Loaded RB’s, average WR’s at this point, but likely to make a move at some point. Definite playoff team, and likely division winner. Consensus top pick for playoffs in pre-season predictions.
Mid-season: Everything just went wrong with this team. The RB’s (MJD, Rice and Turner) couldn’t reach the endzone, the WR’s disappointed mightily in the beginning, and got swept in the doubleheader week. Lost 2 close ones in the middle of the season, and at 4-6 at this point, the team is done. I have moved Ray Rice for a 1st round pick in 2011, and that pick is shaping up to be middle of the road, which is pretty nice. I have also managed to spin 2 QB’s, a WR, and a TE into improved draft position for 2011 as well.
Labelle:
Pre-season: Started in a whole with draft choices, this is probably a middle of the road team. Could be a fringe playoff contender, and I haven’t been afraid to add for a playoff push. Thinking 7-6.
Mid-season: Everything has gone right with this team. Peyton HIllis and Michael Vick have been free agent gold, and also added players like DeAngelo Williams, Marques Colston, and Phillip Rivers. Currently sitting at 8-1 and in first place overall.
Dynasty:
Pre-season: This is the league I really have no idea about. I think there are a lot of teams that are very close to each other, and our division will beat up on each other. The unchanged schedule means I again don’t play Madsprayer, which was an easy win last season. Think I will be 7-6 again and right on the edge of the playoffs.
Mid-season: My prediction looks dead on here. This team has had a few huge weeks and a few terrible weeks. Sitting at 4-4, they have the 2nd highest point total. Also right on the edge of the playoffs at this point, sitting in the 6th spot. Added Jacob Tamme to try to get superstud performance at TE down the stretch, trading Dexter McCluster and LeGarrette Blount (I also got Chris Wells and Tim Hightower in the deal).
Auction:
Pre-season – Todd’s analysis:
QB: Kolb ($14) All-in on him here. I tried to get a backup, but will use the waiver wire for it, as at the end of the auction I thought grabbing Hillis as a potential RB was more valuable than another QB.
RB: Mccoy ($63), Grant ($60), C Wells ($42), R Williams ($13), Hillis ($8), Choice ($3), Bell ($1) No-name, but I think a decent group. Think Wells and Ricky may have some value, and Grant should be consistent.
WR: Nicks ($50), Bowe ($48), Maclin ($37), Garcon ($29), Burleson ($14), M Thomas ($9), D Henderson ($1 – accidental bid) Again a lot of lesser names, but the whole squad is guys I am really high on.
TE: Scheffler ($1), Gresham ($2)
Because I bid on Ricky, I couldn’t afford even a bottom level TE. So I grabbed Scheffler to start early, and hoping to hit a home run on Gresham
Dave’s analysis: not a huge fan of the Auction team, although i think it can be sneaky good...really gonna depend on how Kolb plays (or if you get a lucky on WW)...i think you may be overly reliant on the Eagles. also with the WRs you dont have any go-to guys, and most of them are in offenses that like to spread it around so you could be in for some down weeks...probably a rollercoaster of a team that should be around .500 but could sneak into the playoffs
Mid-season: Team started 0-2, but has now won 6 straight (looking for 7) and almost assured to be in the playoffs. In the hunt for the division title as well. The gamble at the QB position hasn’t worked out, as Kolb got hurt week 1, and lost the job. It has been patchwork since that week, with guys like Bradford, Young, and now the recently acquired Carson Palmer (got along with Celek in exchange for Garcon and Thomas). The RB’s were hurt by the week 1 injury to Grant, but Hillis has been a revelation in his place. WR’s have been great, with Nicks emerging as a star, and the rest being solid. Waiver wire acquisition Devone Bess made trading Garcon and Thomas possible.
Redraft:
Preseason: Todd’s analysis: This was a snake draft, with the 3rd round going in reverse order from a typical serpentine, hence I am early in the odd number rounds and late in the even number rounds after the 3rd round.
QB: Manning (8.09), Henne (13.04) As most know, I am really big on Eli this year. Henne could be a sleeper this year with Marshall, though I hope to play him only once or twice.
RB: Turner (1.09), Greene (4.09), Ricky (7.04), T Jones (11.04), Snelling (14.09), B Jackson (16.09) Pretty decent group I think. Snelling is a capable handcuff to Turner. No real receiving points out of this group, but hoping to get a ton of carries out of Turner and Greene.
WR: Marshall (2.04), Desean Jackson (3.04), Bowe (5.04), Garcon (6.09), Hester (9.04), Devin Thomas (15.04), Tate (17.04) Love this group. Garcon and Hester as my #4 and #5 is huge in PPR.
TE: Carlson (10.09), Gresham (12.09) As with the other team, I sacrificed at TE for WR depth. Again went with Gresham as a home run candidate.
Dave’s analysis: i like the redraft quite a bit, although not having any pass catching backs could be an issue...as long as Turner and Greene churn out the points it should be a playoff team
Mid-season: This team started off awful, losing first 4 games, and putting up dismal scores in most of those. Since then they have won 5 in a row, and now sit in a jumbled up playoff chase, around the 5 spot at this point. The RB’s aren’t very good after Turner, and the WR’s have slightly underachieved, but this team still has a shot to put it together led by the top 3 WR’s.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Monday, August 09, 2010
Big Saturday of poker and horses
Had a pretty big Saturday at Northville Downs.
Started the day off handicapping the pick 4 at Ellis Park. I put about $190 into the tickets, and immediately started off with a 12-1 shot winning the first leg (who I had), to make a long story short, by the 4th leg I was still alive, and 0 favorites had won. I had the 1 (paid $1270 if wins), 3 (paid $3000 if wins) and 6 (paid $900 if wins) covered. I also was going to get consolation payouts of several hundred if any of the other horses except the 5 won, as nobody had them in the pk4 at all. So I put $50 on the 5 to win as a hedge, and watched the race. The 1 took the lead right from the gate, and led by several lengths entering the stretch. In the final few strides my 3 almost caught him on the far outside, but the 1 ended up holding on, giving me my 2nd best scenario.
At the same time of this pick 4, I was playing in a $40 Pot limit Omaha tourney. As some of you may know, Omaha is the only game I play online anymore, and people are really terrible at it. I got a monster chip stack early and cruised to the final 3 (there were only 14 players). I took a brutal beat with 3 remaining (got a guy to go all-in before the river, with his only card to win the pot being a T….boom T on the river). I managed to recover, and got heads-up. After a bit of play, the blinds were really high, and I wanted to bet some more ponies and play some cash poker, so we chopped it for $240 apiece.
Then I sat down at the same cash table as Erik, and after a few hours of drinking and breaking even, I hit a $500 pot with the monster hand 4-2, and ended up making $300 at that table.
The Poker Grump would be proud of this one. I was sitting with about $215 going into the hand, and was in the SB with 24o. UTG limped (had been a thorn in my side for most of the night, but I knew he would overplay a hand), all folded to me, and I decided just to complete, and the BB checked his option. Now as an aside, I know the Grump might recommend raising for value here, but I decided to just complete the BB for deception sake.
The pot was only $6, and the flop came 853r. I checked, the BB led out $15 (some of these players love the overbet). When the UTG called the $15, I decided to change my decision from folding to calling and hope to drill my open ender.
The turn was the lovely A. I checked again, the BB bet $25, and UTG raised to $50. At that point I had a tough decision, as both raising and calling showed significant strength. Because calling I felt gave up as much info as raising, I decided to raise, and popped it up to $100. The BB folded , and UTG debated and called.
The river was kinda ugly, a 2, which I felt increased the likelihood of him being able to dump a hand like aces up. I moved in for my last $100, and he debated for about 30 seconds to 1 minute and decided to call. I turned over my cards, and he said “I thought that was what you had.” and proceeded to muck.
Thanks Grump!
Started the day off handicapping the pick 4 at Ellis Park. I put about $190 into the tickets, and immediately started off with a 12-1 shot winning the first leg (who I had), to make a long story short, by the 4th leg I was still alive, and 0 favorites had won. I had the 1 (paid $1270 if wins), 3 (paid $3000 if wins) and 6 (paid $900 if wins) covered. I also was going to get consolation payouts of several hundred if any of the other horses except the 5 won, as nobody had them in the pk4 at all. So I put $50 on the 5 to win as a hedge, and watched the race. The 1 took the lead right from the gate, and led by several lengths entering the stretch. In the final few strides my 3 almost caught him on the far outside, but the 1 ended up holding on, giving me my 2nd best scenario.
At the same time of this pick 4, I was playing in a $40 Pot limit Omaha tourney. As some of you may know, Omaha is the only game I play online anymore, and people are really terrible at it. I got a monster chip stack early and cruised to the final 3 (there were only 14 players). I took a brutal beat with 3 remaining (got a guy to go all-in before the river, with his only card to win the pot being a T….boom T on the river). I managed to recover, and got heads-up. After a bit of play, the blinds were really high, and I wanted to bet some more ponies and play some cash poker, so we chopped it for $240 apiece.
Then I sat down at the same cash table as Erik, and after a few hours of drinking and breaking even, I hit a $500 pot with the monster hand 4-2, and ended up making $300 at that table.
The Poker Grump would be proud of this one. I was sitting with about $215 going into the hand, and was in the SB with 24o. UTG limped (had been a thorn in my side for most of the night, but I knew he would overplay a hand), all folded to me, and I decided just to complete, and the BB checked his option. Now as an aside, I know the Grump might recommend raising for value here, but I decided to just complete the BB for deception sake.
The pot was only $6, and the flop came 853r. I checked, the BB led out $15 (some of these players love the overbet). When the UTG called the $15, I decided to change my decision from folding to calling and hope to drill my open ender.
The turn was the lovely A. I checked again, the BB bet $25, and UTG raised to $50. At that point I had a tough decision, as both raising and calling showed significant strength. Because calling I felt gave up as much info as raising, I decided to raise, and popped it up to $100. The BB folded , and UTG debated and called.
The river was kinda ugly, a 2, which I felt increased the likelihood of him being able to dump a hand like aces up. I moved in for my last $100, and he debated for about 30 seconds to 1 minute and decided to call. I turned over my cards, and he said “I thought that was what you had.” and proceeded to muck.
Thanks Grump!
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Almost final Kentucky Derby analysis
Did some more final derby analysis, used my horse racing ratings to further investigate some of these race times (Sonny and Paul should remember these from back in high school / college).
I have categorized them into Early Speed, Stalkers and Closers groups, and rated them within the group. The ratings I gave them are based on their race times. The first rating is their overall ability, and the second # is kind an endurance measure. Also some final comments:
Early Speed:
Sidney’s Candy (48, 48) – My favorite horse now. Rates nearly as strongly as Eskendereya did. There are 2 leaps of faith here, (1) that he can rate off of the pace, which I kind of expect, and (2) that he can run well on dirt.
Conveyance (45,43) – This horse is really good. But, his last few races his last ¼ has been significantly worse than the previous one. I watched both of those races and he was visually tiring down the lane. I just don’t think he can carry the mile and a quarter and will look to play elsewhere unless the price is phenomenal. May be able to hold on for a piece, but I don’t see any of the other early speed being able to carry.
American Lion (43,40) – Another I am re-thinking. His Illinois Derby was by far his best race, and it was his first on dirt. He did get to carry things his own way in terms of a molasses slow pace, so he should have had enough to turn back all challengers. He won’t get that luxury in the Derby, but his other races are solid. Very slight chance of holding up.
Line of David (42,40) – His last 2 efforts have been very strong. But looking a little closer at the Arkansas Derby, his last quarter was FAR worse than the previous one, leading me to believe that the extra 1/8 of a mile of the Derby will be his complete undoing. Will not play at all unless early speed is holding strongly at Churchill.
Discreetly Mine (42,37) – He just isn’t good enough right now. He’s the one I pegged that could change their running style, and I may play on the bottom of a few tickets, but overall just not going to happen.
Stalkers:
Endorsement (44,42) - Rapidly improving horse. His last race Beyer puts him right there with the best. Play on top.
Super Saver (43,40) – Derby winning sire, best Churchill jockey around, improving horse. Don’t ignore!!!
Awesome Act (41,40) – His ratings weren’t what I had hoped, though that last race was very weird. Think there is a lot more left in the tank. Potential winner.
Jackson Bend (42,40) – He’s gutty, I just don’t think he’s good enough. Left twice in Eskendereya’s wake. I will play for 3rd and 4th.
Mission Impazible (42,39) – Upon closer look, he just isn’t good enough to win this race. 3rd and 4th are definitely possibilities, and perhaps as high as 2nd.
Homeboykris (41,41) – Think he has little to no chance here.
Paddy O’Prado (39,39) – I didn’t count his last turf race, the Palm Beach handicap. It was a big race, but he is definitely more suited for turf. Would like more if he was a closer, will look elsewhere.
Dean’s Kitten (40,38) – His Lane’s End wasn’t bad, but it’s not good enough in this field. Like other stalkers much more.
Backtalk (36,33) – No chance.
Unknown:
Devil May Care – The filly. Haven’t seen her PP’s yet, but she has a last race Beyer of 100, so she definitely fits in this field.
Closers:
Ice Box (43,42) – Deep closer could have the race setup well for him. He may be rounding into his best for at the right time. One downside is his sire wasn’t as good in the last ¼ mile of the Derby. Think I will play him on the top of my tickets.
Lookin at Lucky (42,41) – I can’t leave him off of my tickets, but he doesn’t seem to have a Derby winning move. He is so much like PioneeroftheNile last year it is scary. The only reason I will play him on top is due to the trouble he has had in almost all of his races. We still may not know how good he is.
Stately Victor (42,42) – Very light Beyer wise, but his Blue Grass move was very impressive. Also the only horse thus far to run better their last ¼ better than the ¼ before it. Could be rounding into form at a big upset. Probably have to play on top on some tickets.
Dublin (43,40) – He may have topped out at the 97 beyer, but that may be good enough to win here. Like the other 3 closers more here, but I can’t ignore for the 3rd and 4th spot on my ticket.
Noble’s Promise (42,37) – I have to look at his Ark Derby race again, to see the trouble he got in. His last quarter was a lot worse than the one before that, not sure if that is because of the trouble or not. If the trouble was genuine, than I can see playing him, if the trouble wasn’t too bad, I can see him for maybe 3rd. His workout reports have not been very good either that I recall. I think he is the pretender of the closers.
I have categorized them into Early Speed, Stalkers and Closers groups, and rated them within the group. The ratings I gave them are based on their race times. The first rating is their overall ability, and the second # is kind an endurance measure. Also some final comments:
Early Speed:
Sidney’s Candy (48, 48) – My favorite horse now. Rates nearly as strongly as Eskendereya did. There are 2 leaps of faith here, (1) that he can rate off of the pace, which I kind of expect, and (2) that he can run well on dirt.
Conveyance (45,43) – This horse is really good. But, his last few races his last ¼ has been significantly worse than the previous one. I watched both of those races and he was visually tiring down the lane. I just don’t think he can carry the mile and a quarter and will look to play elsewhere unless the price is phenomenal. May be able to hold on for a piece, but I don’t see any of the other early speed being able to carry.
American Lion (43,40) – Another I am re-thinking. His Illinois Derby was by far his best race, and it was his first on dirt. He did get to carry things his own way in terms of a molasses slow pace, so he should have had enough to turn back all challengers. He won’t get that luxury in the Derby, but his other races are solid. Very slight chance of holding up.
Line of David (42,40) – His last 2 efforts have been very strong. But looking a little closer at the Arkansas Derby, his last quarter was FAR worse than the previous one, leading me to believe that the extra 1/8 of a mile of the Derby will be his complete undoing. Will not play at all unless early speed is holding strongly at Churchill.
Discreetly Mine (42,37) – He just isn’t good enough right now. He’s the one I pegged that could change their running style, and I may play on the bottom of a few tickets, but overall just not going to happen.
Stalkers:
Endorsement (44,42) - Rapidly improving horse. His last race Beyer puts him right there with the best. Play on top.
Super Saver (43,40) – Derby winning sire, best Churchill jockey around, improving horse. Don’t ignore!!!
Awesome Act (41,40) – His ratings weren’t what I had hoped, though that last race was very weird. Think there is a lot more left in the tank. Potential winner.
Jackson Bend (42,40) – He’s gutty, I just don’t think he’s good enough. Left twice in Eskendereya’s wake. I will play for 3rd and 4th.
Mission Impazible (42,39) – Upon closer look, he just isn’t good enough to win this race. 3rd and 4th are definitely possibilities, and perhaps as high as 2nd.
Homeboykris (41,41) – Think he has little to no chance here.
Paddy O’Prado (39,39) – I didn’t count his last turf race, the Palm Beach handicap. It was a big race, but he is definitely more suited for turf. Would like more if he was a closer, will look elsewhere.
Dean’s Kitten (40,38) – His Lane’s End wasn’t bad, but it’s not good enough in this field. Like other stalkers much more.
Backtalk (36,33) – No chance.
Unknown:
Devil May Care – The filly. Haven’t seen her PP’s yet, but she has a last race Beyer of 100, so she definitely fits in this field.
Closers:
Ice Box (43,42) – Deep closer could have the race setup well for him. He may be rounding into his best for at the right time. One downside is his sire wasn’t as good in the last ¼ mile of the Derby. Think I will play him on the top of my tickets.
Lookin at Lucky (42,41) – I can’t leave him off of my tickets, but he doesn’t seem to have a Derby winning move. He is so much like PioneeroftheNile last year it is scary. The only reason I will play him on top is due to the trouble he has had in almost all of his races. We still may not know how good he is.
Stately Victor (42,42) – Very light Beyer wise, but his Blue Grass move was very impressive. Also the only horse thus far to run better their last ¼ better than the ¼ before it. Could be rounding into form at a big upset. Probably have to play on top on some tickets.
Dublin (43,40) – He may have topped out at the 97 beyer, but that may be good enough to win here. Like the other 3 closers more here, but I can’t ignore for the 3rd and 4th spot on my ticket.
Noble’s Promise (42,37) – I have to look at his Ark Derby race again, to see the trouble he got in. His last quarter was a lot worse than the one before that, not sure if that is because of the trouble or not. If the trouble was genuine, than I can see playing him, if the trouble wasn’t too bad, I can see him for maybe 3rd. His workout reports have not been very good either that I recall. I think he is the pretender of the closers.
Monday, April 19, 2010
A little Derby "belt tightening"
With the Kentucky Derby trip just 12 days away, I felt that I needed to do a little bit of horse handicapping to get back into the swing of things...a belt tightening of sorts. It was a damn good thing that I did.
I ran up to Northville Downs to get a copy of the Daily Racing form, and then headed back home to bet from the comfort of my office on Twinspires.com. My plan was to bet primarily Keeneland, as that has been my bread and butter in the past year, and also to bet on occasional races at other tracks if there was a full field that interested me. After hitting my first race for $170 profit, I slipped back down to around even. It was the 5th race at Pimlico, a 5 furlong turf 25K claimer. I put together what I thought was going to be a big Superfecta ticket, but when I tried to bet it I found that the minimum bet on Supers was $1, instead of the 10 cents that I planned. Instead I placed a small exacta bet. At post time, one of the horses I liked broke free near the gate for a jaunt around the track. He was subsequently scratched, and they took several minutes before re-loading the gate. In that time, I decided to put together a large trifecta ticket (cost me $100 for the base $1 bet). This was primarily because upon elimination of a horse that I pegged as a potential 2nd placer, it made my ticket more affordable.
Down the stretch I had the winner, but was cursing the 50-1 shot that was streaking for 2nd place. As the race finished I scanned over my bets, and with great pleasure I realized I had him. The odds were 9/2, 55-1, 25-1. At that point I realized that I had drilled a monster. When the payback came back, it was $3200+ for the tri, plus the exacta as well.
For a little while after that, it was difficult to concentrate, so I took care of some mundane tasks like laundry and dishes. A short while later I bet another race at Pimlico. This one was a bottom of the barrel 5000 claimer, going 5.5 furlongs. A horse I really liked was about 8-1 (the eventual winner, went off at a little more than 5-1). I also didn't really like the favorite at all. The race set up beautifully, with the horse I loved streaking to the lead in the stretch to win going away. I was pretty sure I had the race hit, I just couldn't tell who finished 4th. After the replay, I knew I had it....this time by it I mean the trifecta for $2, and the superfecta for $1. The payouts came back way better than expected, with the tri returning $385, despite it being 3 of the top 4 favorites. The super returned an awesome $1363, again without a horse over 10-1.
Following that I lost a few races, and won a few races, turning an excellent profit on the afternoon. This not only significantly increased the Derby bankroll, it also helped the confidence level. The one thing I have to say to slightly temper the enthusiasm. The payouts on both of the races was beyond what I was expecting, and the races came in close to my ideal combination.
Can't wait for 2 weekends from now, for what is sure to be a ridiculous time with it being a bachelor party and the Derby.
I ran up to Northville Downs to get a copy of the Daily Racing form, and then headed back home to bet from the comfort of my office on Twinspires.com. My plan was to bet primarily Keeneland, as that has been my bread and butter in the past year, and also to bet on occasional races at other tracks if there was a full field that interested me. After hitting my first race for $170 profit, I slipped back down to around even. It was the 5th race at Pimlico, a 5 furlong turf 25K claimer. I put together what I thought was going to be a big Superfecta ticket, but when I tried to bet it I found that the minimum bet on Supers was $1, instead of the 10 cents that I planned. Instead I placed a small exacta bet. At post time, one of the horses I liked broke free near the gate for a jaunt around the track. He was subsequently scratched, and they took several minutes before re-loading the gate. In that time, I decided to put together a large trifecta ticket (cost me $100 for the base $1 bet). This was primarily because upon elimination of a horse that I pegged as a potential 2nd placer, it made my ticket more affordable.
Down the stretch I had the winner, but was cursing the 50-1 shot that was streaking for 2nd place. As the race finished I scanned over my bets, and with great pleasure I realized I had him. The odds were 9/2, 55-1, 25-1. At that point I realized that I had drilled a monster. When the payback came back, it was $3200+ for the tri, plus the exacta as well.
For a little while after that, it was difficult to concentrate, so I took care of some mundane tasks like laundry and dishes. A short while later I bet another race at Pimlico. This one was a bottom of the barrel 5000 claimer, going 5.5 furlongs. A horse I really liked was about 8-1 (the eventual winner, went off at a little more than 5-1). I also didn't really like the favorite at all. The race set up beautifully, with the horse I loved streaking to the lead in the stretch to win going away. I was pretty sure I had the race hit, I just couldn't tell who finished 4th. After the replay, I knew I had it....this time by it I mean the trifecta for $2, and the superfecta for $1. The payouts came back way better than expected, with the tri returning $385, despite it being 3 of the top 4 favorites. The super returned an awesome $1363, again without a horse over 10-1.
Following that I lost a few races, and won a few races, turning an excellent profit on the afternoon. This not only significantly increased the Derby bankroll, it also helped the confidence level. The one thing I have to say to slightly temper the enthusiasm. The payouts on both of the races was beyond what I was expecting, and the races came in close to my ideal combination.
Can't wait for 2 weekends from now, for what is sure to be a ridiculous time with it being a bachelor party and the Derby.
Thursday, April 08, 2010
2010 Fantasy Bases draft review
Admittedly, I spent a lot less time on this year than in past years, with all of the work and excitement around moving and the upcoming wedding. My league is also the only league I am doing this season. But here is the team, drafting from the 11 spot.
1) Halladay – Was hoping to get Longoria, and wasn’t thrilled about any of the other hitting options. Didn’t want to go 1B because of the overall depth, and felt it was too early for Zimmerman. I wrestled between Roy and Lince, but went with Roy being on the better team, and switching to the NL from the toughest division in baseball. Remember, he could win 25 games this year (per Deshetler).
2) Tulowitzki – Almost took Tex, but 1B is so DEEP this year, I went to a more scarce position. If I knew I could get Reyes in the 3rd/4th I probably would have gone Tex though.
3) Sizemore – Actually my first easy pick. He was hurt all year last year and shut down early. He went 6th overall last year, and 35th this year.
4) Votto – Debated Johan here, but didn’t want to go with 2 of 4 pitchers. Votto’s numbers from last year projected over a full season are pretty sick (he only had 469 at bats last year with the vertigo – inner/ear thing).
5) Phillips – Would have gone Reyes here, despite already having Tulo, but Labelle took him 2 picks earlier. I screwed up and should have taken Beckham here, since Jay already had a 2B, but I was playing catchup after 3 straight really fast picks.
6) Beckham – Really big on him, and that fills out my infield in the first 6 picks.
7) Choo – Think he is really peaking here, considered Markakis, but I think he may have reached his ceiling on production.
8) Garza – Considered Nolasco, Lackey and Shields, but went with the K potential of Garza. A little more luck and his win numbers could take a huge jump.
9) Soria – Thought he was the last of the elite closers. May not get as many save opps, but he does get brought in for tie games, and may grab a few wins.
10) Soto – I had him pegged for the 10th, or Suzuki in the 14th, since only 3 catchers had gone so far, I decided to get at the front of the run.
11) Soriano – Had no idea he changed teams until yesterday. Had 100 K’s in 75 innings in 1st healthy season in a while. Should get a lot of opportunities for a good team.
12) Liriano – Kind of a man-crush here. May have been able to wait another round, but I read he tore up winter ball, and maybe he will be close to what he was a few seasons ago.
13) The other Santana – Needed a pitcher I could kind of count on, and he seemed like a good fit. Pretty good numbers last year considering he was just back from injury.
14) Bourn – Needed a 3rd OF, and I had him higher than all else. SB’s are valuable in this scoring, and he should play everyday and steal 60ish.
15) Ortiz – Was targeting him and almost forgot him. Hate him being stuck at DH, but he had a rebound 2nd half, and at only 34 (allegedly), should have some pop left.
16) Sheets – 16th round seemed like a good time for a shot on him. Struggled in the spring, but is the opening day starter and pitches in a pitcher park.
17) Hudson – Good value here, he seems all the way back from his injury, and should be very dependable.
18) Chapman – Homerun ball here. Realize he is starting in the minors, but think he is a much better shot at pitching by May/June than Strasburg. If as good as they say he is, he won’t stay in the minors for long.
19) Pavano – Meh, wanted someone else to count on, and he still gets K’s. I’ll just start him against the Tigers and White Sox.
20) Adam Laroche – Needed some more pop in my lineup.
21) Maine – He’s gotta figure it out this year, right?
22) Garland – Hate the guy, but I could have a 4.00 ERA in San Diego.
23) Matsui – Just hitting depth. Pretty good for this late.
24) Dotel – Always loved the guy. Pit isn’t a good situation, but Capps had value in the past and Dotel K’s more people.
25) Nick Johnson – Whatever, probably a first cut.
26) Latos – Another SD pitcher, this guy did well last year in limited action.
1) Halladay – Was hoping to get Longoria, and wasn’t thrilled about any of the other hitting options. Didn’t want to go 1B because of the overall depth, and felt it was too early for Zimmerman. I wrestled between Roy and Lince, but went with Roy being on the better team, and switching to the NL from the toughest division in baseball. Remember, he could win 25 games this year (per Deshetler).
2) Tulowitzki – Almost took Tex, but 1B is so DEEP this year, I went to a more scarce position. If I knew I could get Reyes in the 3rd/4th I probably would have gone Tex though.
3) Sizemore – Actually my first easy pick. He was hurt all year last year and shut down early. He went 6th overall last year, and 35th this year.
4) Votto – Debated Johan here, but didn’t want to go with 2 of 4 pitchers. Votto’s numbers from last year projected over a full season are pretty sick (he only had 469 at bats last year with the vertigo – inner/ear thing).
5) Phillips – Would have gone Reyes here, despite already having Tulo, but Labelle took him 2 picks earlier. I screwed up and should have taken Beckham here, since Jay already had a 2B, but I was playing catchup after 3 straight really fast picks.
6) Beckham – Really big on him, and that fills out my infield in the first 6 picks.
7) Choo – Think he is really peaking here, considered Markakis, but I think he may have reached his ceiling on production.
8) Garza – Considered Nolasco, Lackey and Shields, but went with the K potential of Garza. A little more luck and his win numbers could take a huge jump.
9) Soria – Thought he was the last of the elite closers. May not get as many save opps, but he does get brought in for tie games, and may grab a few wins.
10) Soto – I had him pegged for the 10th, or Suzuki in the 14th, since only 3 catchers had gone so far, I decided to get at the front of the run.
11) Soriano – Had no idea he changed teams until yesterday. Had 100 K’s in 75 innings in 1st healthy season in a while. Should get a lot of opportunities for a good team.
12) Liriano – Kind of a man-crush here. May have been able to wait another round, but I read he tore up winter ball, and maybe he will be close to what he was a few seasons ago.
13) The other Santana – Needed a pitcher I could kind of count on, and he seemed like a good fit. Pretty good numbers last year considering he was just back from injury.
14) Bourn – Needed a 3rd OF, and I had him higher than all else. SB’s are valuable in this scoring, and he should play everyday and steal 60ish.
15) Ortiz – Was targeting him and almost forgot him. Hate him being stuck at DH, but he had a rebound 2nd half, and at only 34 (allegedly), should have some pop left.
16) Sheets – 16th round seemed like a good time for a shot on him. Struggled in the spring, but is the opening day starter and pitches in a pitcher park.
17) Hudson – Good value here, he seems all the way back from his injury, and should be very dependable.
18) Chapman – Homerun ball here. Realize he is starting in the minors, but think he is a much better shot at pitching by May/June than Strasburg. If as good as they say he is, he won’t stay in the minors for long.
19) Pavano – Meh, wanted someone else to count on, and he still gets K’s. I’ll just start him against the Tigers and White Sox.
20) Adam Laroche – Needed some more pop in my lineup.
21) Maine – He’s gotta figure it out this year, right?
22) Garland – Hate the guy, but I could have a 4.00 ERA in San Diego.
23) Matsui – Just hitting depth. Pretty good for this late.
24) Dotel – Always loved the guy. Pit isn’t a good situation, but Capps had value in the past and Dotel K’s more people.
25) Nick Johnson – Whatever, probably a first cut.
26) Latos – Another SD pitcher, this guy did well last year in limited action.
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