Did some more final derby analysis, used my horse racing ratings to further investigate some of these race times (Sonny and Paul should remember these from back in high school / college).
I have categorized them into Early Speed, Stalkers and Closers groups, and rated them within the group. The ratings I gave them are based on their race times. The first rating is their overall ability, and the second # is kind an endurance measure. Also some final comments:
Early Speed:
Sidney’s Candy (48, 48) – My favorite horse now. Rates nearly as strongly as Eskendereya did. There are 2 leaps of faith here, (1) that he can rate off of the pace, which I kind of expect, and (2) that he can run well on dirt.
Conveyance (45,43) – This horse is really good. But, his last few races his last ¼ has been significantly worse than the previous one. I watched both of those races and he was visually tiring down the lane. I just don’t think he can carry the mile and a quarter and will look to play elsewhere unless the price is phenomenal. May be able to hold on for a piece, but I don’t see any of the other early speed being able to carry.
American Lion (43,40) – Another I am re-thinking. His Illinois Derby was by far his best race, and it was his first on dirt. He did get to carry things his own way in terms of a molasses slow pace, so he should have had enough to turn back all challengers. He won’t get that luxury in the Derby, but his other races are solid. Very slight chance of holding up.
Line of David (42,40) – His last 2 efforts have been very strong. But looking a little closer at the Arkansas Derby, his last quarter was FAR worse than the previous one, leading me to believe that the extra 1/8 of a mile of the Derby will be his complete undoing. Will not play at all unless early speed is holding strongly at Churchill.
Discreetly Mine (42,37) – He just isn’t good enough right now. He’s the one I pegged that could change their running style, and I may play on the bottom of a few tickets, but overall just not going to happen.
Stalkers:
Endorsement (44,42) - Rapidly improving horse. His last race Beyer puts him right there with the best. Play on top.
Super Saver (43,40) – Derby winning sire, best Churchill jockey around, improving horse. Don’t ignore!!!
Awesome Act (41,40) – His ratings weren’t what I had hoped, though that last race was very weird. Think there is a lot more left in the tank. Potential winner.
Jackson Bend (42,40) – He’s gutty, I just don’t think he’s good enough. Left twice in Eskendereya’s wake. I will play for 3rd and 4th.
Mission Impazible (42,39) – Upon closer look, he just isn’t good enough to win this race. 3rd and 4th are definitely possibilities, and perhaps as high as 2nd.
Homeboykris (41,41) – Think he has little to no chance here.
Paddy O’Prado (39,39) – I didn’t count his last turf race, the Palm Beach handicap. It was a big race, but he is definitely more suited for turf. Would like more if he was a closer, will look elsewhere.
Dean’s Kitten (40,38) – His Lane’s End wasn’t bad, but it’s not good enough in this field. Like other stalkers much more.
Backtalk (36,33) – No chance.
Unknown:
Devil May Care – The filly. Haven’t seen her PP’s yet, but she has a last race Beyer of 100, so she definitely fits in this field.
Closers:
Ice Box (43,42) – Deep closer could have the race setup well for him. He may be rounding into his best for at the right time. One downside is his sire wasn’t as good in the last ¼ mile of the Derby. Think I will play him on the top of my tickets.
Lookin at Lucky (42,41) – I can’t leave him off of my tickets, but he doesn’t seem to have a Derby winning move. He is so much like PioneeroftheNile last year it is scary. The only reason I will play him on top is due to the trouble he has had in almost all of his races. We still may not know how good he is.
Stately Victor (42,42) – Very light Beyer wise, but his Blue Grass move was very impressive. Also the only horse thus far to run better their last ¼ better than the ¼ before it. Could be rounding into form at a big upset. Probably have to play on top on some tickets.
Dublin (43,40) – He may have topped out at the 97 beyer, but that may be good enough to win here. Like the other 3 closers more here, but I can’t ignore for the 3rd and 4th spot on my ticket.
Noble’s Promise (42,37) – I have to look at his Ark Derby race again, to see the trouble he got in. His last quarter was a lot worse than the one before that, not sure if that is because of the trouble or not. If the trouble was genuine, than I can see playing him, if the trouble wasn’t too bad, I can see him for maybe 3rd. His workout reports have not been very good either that I recall. I think he is the pretender of the closers.
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