1. ArchArchArch – I’ve been big on him for a few races. Like that he stays a little closer to pace than Nehro and Dialed In, meaning he may get first run on the leaders at the top of the lane. He’s also been training up very well at CD. ½ brother to Blame, who loved Churchill Downs. Jon Court is the perfect match for his running style. Will likely play everywhere. Thursday update: With him drawing the #1 post position I have to stick to the guns that I didn't stick to last year. I cannot play him to hit the board from the #1 hole on very many tickets at all. There is just too much for him to have to overcome, and quite simply (as I said with Lookin at Lucky in 2010), he isn't good enough (and I don't think he's as good as Lookin at Lucky).
2. Brilliant Speed – Closed into really slow fractions in the Bluegrass, which is impressive, but Dave is right, the Bluegrass has been a joke lately, though Street Sense did run 2nd in the Blue Grass a few years back. Seems to put in an honest run, but meh….3rd at the best.
3. Twice the Appeal – Definitely not good enough, and has distance concerns. Gets Borel, which will likely mean he is slightly overbet. Toss.
4. Stay Thirsty – Definitely well regarded, but top figure of 89 just doesn’t bode well for the Derby. Can’t find his PP’s right now, so will need to do more research.
5. Decisive Moment – Just not good enough, and again he has distance concerns. Toss.
6. CommaToTheTop – He will be on the front end with Pat Valenzuela, but I don’t think he can carry the speed, as he has been faltering at shorter distances in the stretch. Hope he goes really fast early. Toss.
7. Pants On Fire – I have severe distance concerns about him, coupled with a last race 94 Beyer, which is 10 pts higher than his previous best, am thinking he is topped out. Pass.
8. Dialed In – I don’t like his figures, I don’t like his running style considering the pace isn't going to be fast, he hasn’t beaten anybody, and he will likely deal with a lot of traffic problems. That’s the bad. Now the good. Been training really well, has a win at Churchill, his sire was a monster, and the distance will not be a problem. I’m just not sure he can overcome all of the difficulties he will face. Easily will be all over the tickets, unless he happens to draw the inside post, in which case I think you just play against.
9. Derby Kitten - Probably best suited for the grass, this one is well bred. I can't forget Dean's Kitten last year not running well at Churchill. If the track is wet I think I will ignore completely, but he's the one I have a hunch may pick up the pieces late and hit the bottom of the superfecta.
10. Twinspired - Only race on dirt was his worst one. Was close to early fractions in Blue Grass and couldn’t hang on. Distance shouldn’t be a concern, and I could see maybe playing for 4th, but probably no higher.
11. Master of Hounds – I am intrigued by him, especially a big performance in the 1 3/16 mile race last out, but if there is anything that I learned last year, it’s not too ask a horse to do too many new things in the Derby. 1st race on dirt (1 on synthetic), travelling overseas to race. He was 2 lengths behind Soldat in the BC Juv Trf last October for reference, and Soldat improved a lot from last year. We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again….Aidan O’Brien has no clue how to prepare a horse for the Derby. Until he proves otherwise to me, I can’t play him for the win, unless the odds are extraordinary. That being said, due to the weak nature of this field, I can probably play him as high as 2nd, though more likely 3rd.
12. Santiva – I’ll toss his Blue Grass, as it was on Poly and he ran into traffic issues. The main concern is 1 figure over 90. Only win did come at Churchill. Giants Causeway is a stud of a sire. I’m thinking outside chance of hitting the board here.
13. Mucho Macho Man – Not really big on him. Looks like this years Awesome Act. In a race like this you can’t afford to play them all. Thinking 3rd at best.
14. Shackleford – Has won at 1 1/8 miles, almost won twice at the distance, but top fig of 93, and was laboring down the lane. I think the last 1/8 of a mile will be too much to overcome, especially considering his pedigree. Toss.
15. Midnight Interlude – Most people don’t really like him, and say that the California fields are weak this year. They also tout the slow pace of the Santa Anita as a knock. But the truth is that the pace may be set by Comma to the Top, who set the pace in the Santa Anita. Also a believer in Baffert, so I will probably play him strongly, especially if he hovers around 8 or 10-1. Want to see how his final workout goes.
16. Animal Kingdom – Watched his Spiral Stakes race as I was curious on him. He made a Derby winning move around the turn, but he was closing into pretty honest fractions, and his splits for each of the last ¼ miles was nothing to write home about. Apparently he is training GREAT over the track, and he should love the added distance. But, has never raced on dirt, 3 times on synthetic. Going to play him, just not sure how high.
17. Soldat – Tried rating in the Fla Derby and it didn’t work. When he was on the lead they weren’t very fast fractions, but maybe he just doesn’t like dirt thrown on him. His best dry track race was a 96 at Gulfstream on the lead, which is inherently a speed favoring track. His top beyer of 103 was on a speed favoring track in the slop. So despite reports of him training up well, I am inclined to toss him, unless the track comes up wet.
18. Uncle Mo – Sire was best at a mile, and had lead in his Derby briefly on turn. But he has the 2 best dry track beyers of anyone not named “The Factor” in the field by far. If he isn’t a prohibitive favorite, there is something wrong. Let’s not search for something that isn’t there. I don’t like the “runs” excuse, but I am willing to forgive one bad race, especially when that race is a 92 beyer when setting decent fractions on the front end. The fact that that bad race occurred right before the Derby will do nothing but help the price.
19. Nehro – Getting better with every start. Figures never topped 100, but they are going in the right direction. I’m not thrilled about Nakatani as the jock, and you have to worry about potential traffic troubles, but I think you have to play him everywhere.
20. Watch Me Go - I just can’t play a horse whose highest figure in 10 starts is an 84. He has beaten nobody in this field that I can see, and is an easy toss. Beware that he is the 2011 Mine That Bird.
Predicted order of finish:
1st - Nehro
2nd - Animal Kingdom
3rd - Uncle Mo
4th - Derby Kitten
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