1. Astrology – I was reasonably impressed with his effort in his last 2 races from a visual standpoint, even though the speed figures were a little light. I could see him running a big race and finishing somewhere in the superfecta, but I don’t really see him as a likely winner.
2. Norman Asbjornson – Best figure was an 87 in a dull Wood Memorial. Running style suggests he may be reasonably close to a fast pace. Probably play for 4th if at all.
3. King Congie – A lot will play the Robbie Albarado revenge line, but I don’t buy that as even an issue. If his horse has it, Albarado would love to win, no matter what happened 2 weeks ago. The simple truth is that I don’t really like him. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will like more distance, his 3rd in a weirdly run Blue Grass wasn’t flattered by Brilliant Speed and Twinspired performances in the Derby. 3rd or 4th at best, and even then not strongly.
4. Flashpoint – Looks to be some quality speed, but his pedigree is ALL sprinter. His 102 speed figure in the Hutcheson was huge, but it was only 7F, and played right into the track bias at Gulfstream. He couldn’t keep up with Shackleford in the Florida Derby, who I also consider an outsider here. Will be a pace factor, and may have to play him the back half of tickets strictly because of that, but I lean towards a pass.
5. Shackleford – This horse is game and tough, and I have somehow bet on all of his races this year, despite very limited betting by me. He couldn’t hold on late in the Florida Derby despite running with the track bias, and he couldn’t hold on for more than 4th in the Kentucky Derby, despite getting everything his own way. With Flashpoint, as well as some other speed in this race, and the speedy nature of Pimlico, I don’t see him getting anywhere near as good of a trip, so he is a toss for me.
6. Sway Away – I really like him, and would be shocked if he goes off at anything above 10-1, let alone 15-1. His sire won the Preakness and Belmont, so distance isn’t a concern, and he should get a legit pace to run at.
7. Midnight Interlude – I’ve decided this horse is a phony. He had no real excuse in the Derby, aside from not liking the crowds (Pimlico is no picnic either). The Santa Anita Derby field he beat was beyond weak, so I think I will pass entirely on him.
8. Dance City – Think he may be the front runner that hangs on for a piece, potentially a large piece. Should get a nice stalking trip just off the leaders. The only concern is that his pedigree is full of sprinters, but he has hung on well in all of his races.
9. Mucho Macho Man – The bad news is that everyone likes him, and he will probably be lower than 6-1. The good news is that he is clearly the best to 2nd best horse in this field, and was running well late in the Derby. All indications are that he is training up very well also. Definite win candidate.
10. Dialed In - I don’t like his figures, I don’t like his running style considering the pace isn't going to be fast, he hasn’t beaten anybody, and he will likely deal with a lot of traffic problems. Sound familiar? That’s what I said before the Derby. I STILL don’t like his figures, his running style is still a negative due to the shorter distance, though he should get a legit pace to run at. I’m also not a big Leparoux fan. Stands to get a big bonus for winning, but I think you should put that out of your head, he simply isn’t good enough right now. You can count him to give a decent effort, but I really don’t see better than 3rd out of him.
11. Animal Kingdom – Forget the fact that I may be biased because of my fondness for his Derby effort, but what’s not to like (aside from the price). He was MUCH the best in the Derby, despite closing into slow fractions. None of the horses he beat had any excuse. His Beyer pattern is continually increasing, and though some would say a bounce is expected, we are just starting to see how good he may be. The choice to win again, and head to Belmont looking for a triple crown.
12. Isn’t He Pefect – He isn’t perfect, not even close, and really doesn’t belong in this race. The only factor he could possibly have is that he breaks next to Animal Kingdom and could cause him trouble out of the gate.
13. Concealed Identity – Sire won the Preakness, and he is 2 for 2 at Pimlico. His speed figures are light, but there always seems to be one horse to crash the party, he may be my choice to do it in 3rd or 4th at 30-1.
14. Mr. Commons – Pretty well bred (for turf), and overall I like the way he looks, but he is also coming out of that weak Santa Anita Derby, and breaking from the 14 post with his running style suggests he will be 4 wide on the first turn, which I think will be too much to overcome. Bottom of tickets if at all.
Predicted order of finish:
1st – Animal Kingdom
2nd – Sway Away
3rd – Mucho Macho Man
4th – Astrology
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