2012 Belmont Stakes Preview

It's time to preview this weekends Belmont Stakes, which has to be the most anticipated in recent memory, firstly because of another opportunity to capture the elusive triple crown, and secondly because for some reason this horse has captured the attention/imagination of more people than other previous attempts.  Do I think it will happen?  We'll see...

1 - Street Life -  This one intrigues me a bit.  May have been a bit late developing, and seeming to love all the extra distance they can throw at him.  I am always skeptical of New York horses, but this race is at Belmont, where his best race to date is.  He will have to take a step forward, but not as much as you may think IF (big capital letters here) I'll Have Another and Paynter take a big step backwards, which is very possible.

2 - Unstoppable U - Another that could be very late developing, but would have to take too big of a step forward.  Also not sure how much he will appreciate the distance, so he's a pass for me.

3 - Union Rags - My feelings about him are well known.  He isn't good enough to win unless he takes a big step forward.  I think he's a likely 3rd placer here, and probably a good distance behind the top 2.

4 - Atigun - Really??  Only chance is if the track comes up muddy, and the top contenders hate it, which I doubt.

5 - Dullahan - I'm not telling anybody anything they don't know when I say that he is the prime threat (one of two) to upset the triple crown shot.  He has gotten better pretty much every race, was a fast closing 3rd in the Derby, perhaps the winner if they go another 1/16 of a mile.  Sometimes that logic is faulty though, as we saw with Ice Box in the 2010 rendition.   You have to love that he took the 5 weeks off and is coming in fresh for this.  All reports are that he is training wonderfully.  Does he have more improvement in store, or is he topped out?  Will I Have Another regress off of his Preakness win?  Those are the questions you have to ask yourself.

6 - Ravelo's Boy - ZERO CHANCE

7 - Five Sixteen - Slightly greater than ZERO chance.

8 - Guyana Star Dweej  - The horse is nowhere near good enough, and is training poorly as well.  ZERO CHANCE.

9 - Paynter - The other most likely spoiler.  His career mark looks similar to I'll Have Another, he just arrived a bit late to the party.  Ran a 106 Beyer at Pimlico on Preakness Day, which rivals IHA's 109.  His sire is Awesome Again, a winner of the Breeders Cup Classic, so you wouldn't think the distance would be a problem.  Trained by Baffert, no stranger to the Triple Crown trail.  Could Baffert run 2nd in all the crown races, with 2 different horses?  His running style is perfect, he should be near the front and have zero traffic troubles.  In fact, he may find himself in the lead or in the 2nd spot the whole way around.

10 - Optimizer - 11th in Derby, 6th in Preakness without much of an excuse.  The horse is simply not fast enough.

11 - I'll Have Another - That was quite simply a huge race in the Preakness, to run down Bodemeister, who had the lead all to himself.  That put away the naysayers of his Derby performance, who touted his perfect trip.  I love everything about the way they have handled this horse, the keys in my mind being sending him directly to Pimlico following the Derby, and then directly to Belmont following the Preakness, allowing him to get acclimated to the track.  He should be right up near the front with Paynter, thus ensuring a clean trip.  

Gutierrez has shown a lot of patience thus far, and now he must fight the urge to use his horse too soon.  We have seen it time and again in the Belmont, with horses moving too soon and getting swallowed up late, the most vivid being Spectacular Bid in 1979, Real Quiet in 1999, and Smarty Jones in 2004.  

We have also seen horses who have run huge Preaknesses regress in the Belmont, possibly from the wear and tear of the Triple Crown.  These recent examples include Big Brown, Smarty Jones and Real Quiet. 

12 - My Adonis - A late addition to the fray, and probably not one that needs to be worried about.

Final analysis:  Will the Triple Crown happen this year?  I have learned to never count on it, as in 2008 Big Brown towered over the field he faced, and he ran dead last.  That being said, unless chaos happens, there are only 5 horses capable of winning.  IHA, Paynter, Dullahan, Union Rags (maybe), and I'll give Street Life a very outside chance as well. 

All indications say that IHA has handled the campaign well.  His connections have handled it well and are having fun with it.  I think he will do it.  My prediction is that IHA will enter the stretch in front, just outside of Paynter.  Dullahan will be moving towards them, looking like the winner, and will flatten out in mid-stretch.  Union Rags will be coming late, but will also flatten and finish 5th.  Street Life will come out of nowhere and run by Dullahan and Union Rags, but not threaten the top 2.

Prediction:
1st - I'll Have Another

2nd - Paynter

3rd - Street Life

4th - Dullahan

5th - Union Rags