1. Astrology – I was reasonably impressed with his effort in his last 2 races from a visual standpoint, even though the speed figures were a little light. I could see him running a big race and finishing somewhere in the superfecta, but I don’t really see him as a likely winner.
2. Norman Asbjornson – Best figure was an 87 in a dull Wood Memorial. Running style suggests he may be reasonably close to a fast pace. Probably play for 4th if at all.
3. King Congie – A lot will play the Robbie Albarado revenge line, but I don’t buy that as even an issue. If his horse has it, Albarado would love to win, no matter what happened 2 weeks ago. The simple truth is that I don’t really like him. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will like more distance, his 3rd in a weirdly run Blue Grass wasn’t flattered by Brilliant Speed and Twinspired performances in the Derby. 3rd or 4th at best, and even then not strongly.
4. Flashpoint – Looks to be some quality speed, but his pedigree is ALL sprinter. His 102 speed figure in the Hutcheson was huge, but it was only 7F, and played right into the track bias at Gulfstream. He couldn’t keep up with Shackleford in the Florida Derby, who I also consider an outsider here. Will be a pace factor, and may have to play him the back half of tickets strictly because of that, but I lean towards a pass.
5. Shackleford – This horse is game and tough, and I have somehow bet on all of his races this year, despite very limited betting by me. He couldn’t hold on late in the Florida Derby despite running with the track bias, and he couldn’t hold on for more than 4th in the Kentucky Derby, despite getting everything his own way. With Flashpoint, as well as some other speed in this race, and the speedy nature of Pimlico, I don’t see him getting anywhere near as good of a trip, so he is a toss for me.
6. Sway Away – I really like him, and would be shocked if he goes off at anything above 10-1, let alone 15-1. His sire won the Preakness and Belmont, so distance isn’t a concern, and he should get a legit pace to run at.
7. Midnight Interlude – I’ve decided this horse is a phony. He had no real excuse in the Derby, aside from not liking the crowds (Pimlico is no picnic either). The Santa Anita Derby field he beat was beyond weak, so I think I will pass entirely on him.
8. Dance City – Think he may be the front runner that hangs on for a piece, potentially a large piece. Should get a nice stalking trip just off the leaders. The only concern is that his pedigree is full of sprinters, but he has hung on well in all of his races.
9. Mucho Macho Man – The bad news is that everyone likes him, and he will probably be lower than 6-1. The good news is that he is clearly the best to 2nd best horse in this field, and was running well late in the Derby. All indications are that he is training up very well also. Definite win candidate.
10. Dialed In - I don’t like his figures, I don’t like his running style considering the pace isn't going to be fast, he hasn’t beaten anybody, and he will likely deal with a lot of traffic problems. Sound familiar? That’s what I said before the Derby. I STILL don’t like his figures, his running style is still a negative due to the shorter distance, though he should get a legit pace to run at. I’m also not a big Leparoux fan. Stands to get a big bonus for winning, but I think you should put that out of your head, he simply isn’t good enough right now. You can count him to give a decent effort, but I really don’t see better than 3rd out of him.
11. Animal Kingdom – Forget the fact that I may be biased because of my fondness for his Derby effort, but what’s not to like (aside from the price). He was MUCH the best in the Derby, despite closing into slow fractions. None of the horses he beat had any excuse. His Beyer pattern is continually increasing, and though some would say a bounce is expected, we are just starting to see how good he may be. The choice to win again, and head to Belmont looking for a triple crown.
12. Isn’t He Pefect – He isn’t perfect, not even close, and really doesn’t belong in this race. The only factor he could possibly have is that he breaks next to Animal Kingdom and could cause him trouble out of the gate.
13. Concealed Identity – Sire won the Preakness, and he is 2 for 2 at Pimlico. His speed figures are light, but there always seems to be one horse to crash the party, he may be my choice to do it in 3rd or 4th at 30-1.
14. Mr. Commons – Pretty well bred (for turf), and overall I like the way he looks, but he is also coming out of that weak Santa Anita Derby, and breaking from the 14 post with his running style suggests he will be 4 wide on the first turn, which I think will be too much to overcome. Bottom of tickets if at all.
Predicted order of finish:
1st – Animal Kingdom
2nd – Sway Away
3rd – Mucho Macho Man
4th – Astrology
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Monday, May 16, 2011
2011 Kentucky Derby Trip Report
Thursday, May 5th
Cinco de Mayo, also travel day for the Derby. Got on the road around 5 with Victoria and Doug. Picked up Mert in Cincinnati around 9ish, and got to see his new house. Guess that short sale worked out for him too. After that we took part in the final segment of the drive, arriving in Louisville around 11pm. We checked into the hotel, and conveniently we had 3 rooms all next to one another. After checking in to the hotel (Super 8 on Preston Hwy in Louisville) and getting settled, we made the annual trip to Trixies / Knockouts. This place has gone downhill every year we’ve been going, and this year was no exception, though I believe it has totally bottomed out. There was one other table occupied, and there was no music (or TV audio) playing. We began the festivities, drinking beer and shooting pool (of which I won 3 of 4 games, therefore I declare myself 2011 Derby Billiards Champion). I also recall a round of Jager shots being ordered. Paul’s contingent arrived around 1am, and the fun continued. At some point in the night Sonny and I went over to the “other” side of the bar, where the girls get naked and the drinking stops. After denying my free pass since it didn’t have the e-mail header on it, Sonny went back to grab another pass from someone in our group. During the time I waited for Sonny, I gave the manager behind the counter a little lip (an incredibly small amount relative to what I am capable of) and the dickhead came around the corner and got in my face. I just stared at him and then looked at other things on the wall, as he continued staring me down. At this point I saw something to the effect of “Save Our Strip Clubs” on the wall, but thought little of it.
Finally Sonny came back with a “valid” free pass, and they let us in. We found it odd that none of the girls were getting naked, and since there were like 5 people in there, we decided to go back with the group. Shortly after that, we headed over to Godfather, where there have been many fun incidents, including Doug being onstage as the biggest fucking loser at the Derby, and most of my bachelor party festivities (note no hyperlink). Again, the girls were wearing clothes, and the vibe seemed totally off. At that point a simple google search noted that the laws in Kentucky changed sometime in 2010, essentially eliminating any fun that can be had in a strip club. After a handful more beers, we left for the hotel, in preparation for Oaks Day.
Friday, May 6th
Woke up in time for first post on Oaks day, getting down to our normal parking spot around 10am. As we were pulling up to the house, and saw our usual hosts, Charlie and Phil, we yelled “Booyah!”, which has become our standard means of saying hello. At that point both Charlie and Phil broke into what is apparently a standard booyah pose, with both arms outstretched in some weird manner (see picture below). Note how everyone has their own little take on the booyah pose. After pounding a quick beer (for the hangovers), we left for the track.
Oaks day started off good, with me nailing a superfecta in the 2nd race (with Doug as a partial investor), but as the day got longer, our bet sizes increased, while our amount of returns decreased. By the end of the day, I was stuck about a nickel, and everyone else was stuck as well. The day as a whole was great though, the forecast had this being our best day, and it didn’t disappoint….partly to mostly sunny, high around 70, basically perfect.
After the track, we headed out to dinner, with the plan being to visit Roosters, which is the restaurant we went to last year with the bachelor party group. We ordered a lot of wings (maybe 100), and didn’t come near finishing them all. An awful lot of beer was consumed, and when it came time for credit card roulette, my good run was ended, as the waitress drew my card to pay the bill, which came out to around $175 (cheaper than I expected). As dinner had progressed, the table got louder and louder, and soon after paying our bill, we were asked to leave. Apparently they had complaints from some of their other patrons. In the end, Paul and I went to the bar area to finish our drinks and the manager and waitress invited us to sit back down, essentially saying Sonny was the reason for us getting the boot (as a side note, I have seen Sonny, and even myself on far worse behavior).
Following Roosters we headed back to the hotel, with undetermined plans. While handicapping the Derby a bit further, I passed out on the bed. Similar things appeared to happen in all rooms, as Doug ended up going downtown (allegedly) with a guy who was staying on our floor, apparently getting a ride in their limo. He ended up coming back by himself around 2am, nearly fighting with the cabbie over the return fare, while nearly getting into a race fight with him.
Saturday, May 7th
Derby day…we got to the track a bit later than planned, and grabbed basically the last 2 parking spots at Charlies. Paul’s contingent had arrived several hours earlier as they were sitting on the infield. On the way to the track, we had to unload 2 Derby tickets, with a $129 face value. We were hoping to get at least $65 each out of them, fully preparing to take a 50% loss. When we hit our first scalper, he was also asking for tickets, we showed him what we had, and he asked how much we wanted for them. I responded, “We’ll take $100 each for them.”, and he immediately peeled $200 from his roll and gave it to me. A guy who was himself looking for tickets said he would have paid a lot more of them. So while it felt good to rid ourselves of the tickets at a small loss, it still felt like we left some money on the table.
Derby day started out a bit like Oaks day finished, with me flushing money down the toilet. Around noon it started raining, so we decided to make the trip down to the infield to check out Paul’s setup, which was phenomenal compared to past infield setups of ours. Along with a tarp, they had a small canopy that allowed us all to stay dry during the brief rainy period. During this time it was a bit cold, as the temperature was around 60. Eventually as the weather improved we decided to head back to the grandstand, partially in order to stake our claim on our spot for the Derby itself. In the 8th race, Sonny opened up a 50 cent pick 4 ticket that would close out on the Derby, netting him over 6K (incidentally the ticket originally was for a $1 base bet, but due to the ticket costing $500 he refunded the ticket and did it for 50 cents. The 9th race came through for him and the pick 4 with Aikenite winning at something like 13-1. I continued to slowly bleed money. In the 10th race, the Woodford Reserve turf race, I concluded that I loved the #7 horse, Get Stormy, who was around 6-1 or 7-1, as I felt he would make an easy uncontested lead. The race played out just as I had imagined, as Get Stormy had enough left to hold on, and I caught the trifecta, which wasn’t a large windfall, but it did give me some more money to play with for the Derby.
Now, on to the Derby. In this post, I predicted Nehro 1st and Animal Kingdom 2nd, so I had Dave put in bets on my Twin Spires account, wheeling Animal Kingdom in 1st, 2nd and 3rd, around a bunch of horses. Since he was 20-1, there was no fear of the payout being poor. We finished constructing our super tickets throughout the early afternoon, and in the end we wheeled Nehro (Sonny and I both loved him) and Midnight Interlude (Sonny’s love, I liked him but not as much) in all 4 spots, surrounded by a bunch of horses, with the final investment being slightly North of $2400. Here is the workout for the Derby ticket.
I also placed a small win bet on Animal Kingdom for Victoria, and then threw in some other trifecta bets. The Derby started out as expected, with Shackleford making the lead in very easy fractions (I expected slow, but not as slow as they went). On the far turn, from our vantage point, we could tell the #19 (Nehro) was making a big move. As the horses passed us, I couldn’t tell who was on the extreme outside. After the finish, all I knew was that Nehro was in there, and that Shackleford finished 4th (all good things). We frantically started asking people who won, and many people said they thought it was the #19. Somebody else said the #16 (Animal Kingdom), which was thrilling to me since I loved him. Then somebody else said they thought it was both of them. The jumbotron was focused on the winner, but due to the odd saddlecloth color, and the fact that the saddlecloth was partially folded over, we still couldn’t tell who it was. Finally they put the winner on the board, the #16 horse. They still didn’t say who was 2nd-4th, though I knew about 4th. Finally after an agonizing minute or two, they put the final order of finish on the board, 16-19 (Nehro)-13 (Mucho Macho Man) – 14 (Shackleford). Once I figured out who the horses were, I knew we had it, and I knew I had the trifecta as well. Here is the winning ticket:
Sonny had run to a TV after the finish to see if he could see the order of finish, and when he returned, we began celebrating, believing this race would pay WAY more than the $29K we got back in 2008, on the Big Brown super. Needless to say, we were “disappointed” when it came back $24K on the $1 bet. My trifecta also got almost $1K on a 50 cent bet. In addition to that, Victoria had $5 to win on Animal Kingdom, as did Jen. Fortunately everyone in our group got a piece of the ticket (from as low as 2% shares), and everybody left the track at worst dead nuts even.
On the way back to the car, I ran ahead and threw Charlie $20 to buy 10 beers. We then proceeded with the traditional “Jimmie Johnson” beer showers. After that, we went to Outback Steakhouse for a celebratory dinner, which we “forced” Sonny to pay for, by virtue of his 40+% stake in our Superfecta ticket, along with his $1.50 cent trifecta, 50 cent pick 4, and $1 pick 3, all closing out on the Derby. Amazingly, we didn’t get kicked out, and had a very good meal. Following dinner we stopped at a party store and bought 30 tall Miller Lites, and proceeded to tailgate in the parking lot. We were eventually joined by the guys from Wisconsin, one of which Doug hung out with the night before.
Sunday, May 9th
Me, Doug, Sonny and Victoria went to Waffle House for the traditional Sunday breakfast, in which we had the slowest and worst server ever. Then we began the drive back, with me allowing Victoria and Sonny to do the driving as I wrestled with a hangover and alcohol induced upset stomach. The hills of Kentucky were rough, as I had to fight the urge to vomit multiple times.
Epilogue:
Overall though, a great trip, one of the best yet. We had a very large contingent. Hopefully I capture it all here, from Michigan it was Me (14th year), Sonny (14th or 15th year), Paul (16th year), Victoria (3rd year), Laura (3rd or 4th??), Doug (who knows, 7 years?), Austin and Beverly (1st timers), Dan and Jen (Dan 2nd time, Jen 1st), Sarah (1st timer), Brett and his 4 brothers (1st timers mostly, maybe 1 of them had been there before). We were also joined in spirit by Erik (had a last minute work conflict), and Dave (wife wouldn’t let him have his balls), and Doug had a few investors of his own in Steve and his Dad.
Nobody lost money, at least none in the immediate group involved in Superfecta. It was the first year in a long time that we didn’t visit the casino.
Other items of note that didn’t make the main blog:
The “Bad TV” didn’t get enough of a mention above, so I need to mention it again.
Charlie and Phil always arguing, and Sonny’s imitation during the post derby fun.
The “Gotcha Bitch” Osama t-shirts that were being aggressively sold outside the track.
The back stairwell carnage, that progressively got worse by late Saturday night, culminating in Paul hearing someone complain about it at the main hotel counter Sunday morning.
Brett mentioned seeing “Barenaked Ladies” performing a free concert on 4th street on Friday night, unfortunately we were all too wrecked to make it.
Another Brett: "While waiting at the limo, drinking beer with chuck and phil, they needed me to move the limo because they boxed in a dude from abc/Lexington for 3 hours...I didn't have the keys- or so I thought! After another 40 minutes, I realized I had the keys!"
More Brett: “The IRS girl looking at me funny when I vouched for my brother and he proceeded to bet $2 to show! Hilarious!”
Last Brett: “Hitting the Tri in 2010 and being part of a Super in 2011....super high 5 next year!”
Cinco de Mayo, also travel day for the Derby. Got on the road around 5 with Victoria and Doug. Picked up Mert in Cincinnati around 9ish, and got to see his new house. Guess that short sale worked out for him too. After that we took part in the final segment of the drive, arriving in Louisville around 11pm. We checked into the hotel, and conveniently we had 3 rooms all next to one another. After checking in to the hotel (Super 8 on Preston Hwy in Louisville) and getting settled, we made the annual trip to Trixies / Knockouts. This place has gone downhill every year we’ve been going, and this year was no exception, though I believe it has totally bottomed out. There was one other table occupied, and there was no music (or TV audio) playing. We began the festivities, drinking beer and shooting pool (of which I won 3 of 4 games, therefore I declare myself 2011 Derby Billiards Champion). I also recall a round of Jager shots being ordered. Paul’s contingent arrived around 1am, and the fun continued. At some point in the night Sonny and I went over to the “other” side of the bar, where the girls get naked and the drinking stops. After denying my free pass since it didn’t have the e-mail header on it, Sonny went back to grab another pass from someone in our group. During the time I waited for Sonny, I gave the manager behind the counter a little lip (an incredibly small amount relative to what I am capable of) and the dickhead came around the corner and got in my face. I just stared at him and then looked at other things on the wall, as he continued staring me down. At this point I saw something to the effect of “Save Our Strip Clubs” on the wall, but thought little of it.
Finally Sonny came back with a “valid” free pass, and they let us in. We found it odd that none of the girls were getting naked, and since there were like 5 people in there, we decided to go back with the group. Shortly after that, we headed over to Godfather, where there have been many fun incidents, including Doug being onstage as the biggest fucking loser at the Derby, and most of my bachelor party festivities (note no hyperlink). Again, the girls were wearing clothes, and the vibe seemed totally off. At that point a simple google search noted that the laws in Kentucky changed sometime in 2010, essentially eliminating any fun that can be had in a strip club. After a handful more beers, we left for the hotel, in preparation for Oaks Day.
Friday, May 6th
Woke up in time for first post on Oaks day, getting down to our normal parking spot around 10am. As we were pulling up to the house, and saw our usual hosts, Charlie and Phil, we yelled “Booyah!”, which has become our standard means of saying hello. At that point both Charlie and Phil broke into what is apparently a standard booyah pose, with both arms outstretched in some weird manner (see picture below). Note how everyone has their own little take on the booyah pose. After pounding a quick beer (for the hangovers), we left for the track.
Oaks day started off good, with me nailing a superfecta in the 2nd race (with Doug as a partial investor), but as the day got longer, our bet sizes increased, while our amount of returns decreased. By the end of the day, I was stuck about a nickel, and everyone else was stuck as well. The day as a whole was great though, the forecast had this being our best day, and it didn’t disappoint….partly to mostly sunny, high around 70, basically perfect.
After the track, we headed out to dinner, with the plan being to visit Roosters, which is the restaurant we went to last year with the bachelor party group. We ordered a lot of wings (maybe 100), and didn’t come near finishing them all. An awful lot of beer was consumed, and when it came time for credit card roulette, my good run was ended, as the waitress drew my card to pay the bill, which came out to around $175 (cheaper than I expected). As dinner had progressed, the table got louder and louder, and soon after paying our bill, we were asked to leave. Apparently they had complaints from some of their other patrons. In the end, Paul and I went to the bar area to finish our drinks and the manager and waitress invited us to sit back down, essentially saying Sonny was the reason for us getting the boot (as a side note, I have seen Sonny, and even myself on far worse behavior).
Following Roosters we headed back to the hotel, with undetermined plans. While handicapping the Derby a bit further, I passed out on the bed. Similar things appeared to happen in all rooms, as Doug ended up going downtown (allegedly) with a guy who was staying on our floor, apparently getting a ride in their limo. He ended up coming back by himself around 2am, nearly fighting with the cabbie over the return fare, while nearly getting into a race fight with him.
Saturday, May 7th
Derby day…we got to the track a bit later than planned, and grabbed basically the last 2 parking spots at Charlies. Paul’s contingent had arrived several hours earlier as they were sitting on the infield. On the way to the track, we had to unload 2 Derby tickets, with a $129 face value. We were hoping to get at least $65 each out of them, fully preparing to take a 50% loss. When we hit our first scalper, he was also asking for tickets, we showed him what we had, and he asked how much we wanted for them. I responded, “We’ll take $100 each for them.”, and he immediately peeled $200 from his roll and gave it to me. A guy who was himself looking for tickets said he would have paid a lot more of them. So while it felt good to rid ourselves of the tickets at a small loss, it still felt like we left some money on the table.
Derby day started out a bit like Oaks day finished, with me flushing money down the toilet. Around noon it started raining, so we decided to make the trip down to the infield to check out Paul’s setup, which was phenomenal compared to past infield setups of ours. Along with a tarp, they had a small canopy that allowed us all to stay dry during the brief rainy period. During this time it was a bit cold, as the temperature was around 60. Eventually as the weather improved we decided to head back to the grandstand, partially in order to stake our claim on our spot for the Derby itself. In the 8th race, Sonny opened up a 50 cent pick 4 ticket that would close out on the Derby, netting him over 6K (incidentally the ticket originally was for a $1 base bet, but due to the ticket costing $500 he refunded the ticket and did it for 50 cents. The 9th race came through for him and the pick 4 with Aikenite winning at something like 13-1. I continued to slowly bleed money. In the 10th race, the Woodford Reserve turf race, I concluded that I loved the #7 horse, Get Stormy, who was around 6-1 or 7-1, as I felt he would make an easy uncontested lead. The race played out just as I had imagined, as Get Stormy had enough left to hold on, and I caught the trifecta, which wasn’t a large windfall, but it did give me some more money to play with for the Derby.
Now, on to the Derby. In this post, I predicted Nehro 1st and Animal Kingdom 2nd, so I had Dave put in bets on my Twin Spires account, wheeling Animal Kingdom in 1st, 2nd and 3rd, around a bunch of horses. Since he was 20-1, there was no fear of the payout being poor. We finished constructing our super tickets throughout the early afternoon, and in the end we wheeled Nehro (Sonny and I both loved him) and Midnight Interlude (Sonny’s love, I liked him but not as much) in all 4 spots, surrounded by a bunch of horses, with the final investment being slightly North of $2400. Here is the workout for the Derby ticket.
I also placed a small win bet on Animal Kingdom for Victoria, and then threw in some other trifecta bets. The Derby started out as expected, with Shackleford making the lead in very easy fractions (I expected slow, but not as slow as they went). On the far turn, from our vantage point, we could tell the #19 (Nehro) was making a big move. As the horses passed us, I couldn’t tell who was on the extreme outside. After the finish, all I knew was that Nehro was in there, and that Shackleford finished 4th (all good things). We frantically started asking people who won, and many people said they thought it was the #19. Somebody else said the #16 (Animal Kingdom), which was thrilling to me since I loved him. Then somebody else said they thought it was both of them. The jumbotron was focused on the winner, but due to the odd saddlecloth color, and the fact that the saddlecloth was partially folded over, we still couldn’t tell who it was. Finally they put the winner on the board, the #16 horse. They still didn’t say who was 2nd-4th, though I knew about 4th. Finally after an agonizing minute or two, they put the final order of finish on the board, 16-19 (Nehro)-13 (Mucho Macho Man) – 14 (Shackleford). Once I figured out who the horses were, I knew we had it, and I knew I had the trifecta as well. Here is the winning ticket:
Sonny had run to a TV after the finish to see if he could see the order of finish, and when he returned, we began celebrating, believing this race would pay WAY more than the $29K we got back in 2008, on the Big Brown super. Needless to say, we were “disappointed” when it came back $24K on the $1 bet. My trifecta also got almost $1K on a 50 cent bet. In addition to that, Victoria had $5 to win on Animal Kingdom, as did Jen. Fortunately everyone in our group got a piece of the ticket (from as low as 2% shares), and everybody left the track at worst dead nuts even.
On the way back to the car, I ran ahead and threw Charlie $20 to buy 10 beers. We then proceeded with the traditional “Jimmie Johnson” beer showers. After that, we went to Outback Steakhouse for a celebratory dinner, which we “forced” Sonny to pay for, by virtue of his 40+% stake in our Superfecta ticket, along with his $1.50 cent trifecta, 50 cent pick 4, and $1 pick 3, all closing out on the Derby. Amazingly, we didn’t get kicked out, and had a very good meal. Following dinner we stopped at a party store and bought 30 tall Miller Lites, and proceeded to tailgate in the parking lot. We were eventually joined by the guys from Wisconsin, one of which Doug hung out with the night before.
Sunday, May 9th
Me, Doug, Sonny and Victoria went to Waffle House for the traditional Sunday breakfast, in which we had the slowest and worst server ever. Then we began the drive back, with me allowing Victoria and Sonny to do the driving as I wrestled with a hangover and alcohol induced upset stomach. The hills of Kentucky were rough, as I had to fight the urge to vomit multiple times.
Epilogue:
Overall though, a great trip, one of the best yet. We had a very large contingent. Hopefully I capture it all here, from Michigan it was Me (14th year), Sonny (14th or 15th year), Paul (16th year), Victoria (3rd year), Laura (3rd or 4th??), Doug (who knows, 7 years?), Austin and Beverly (1st timers), Dan and Jen (Dan 2nd time, Jen 1st), Sarah (1st timer), Brett and his 4 brothers (1st timers mostly, maybe 1 of them had been there before). We were also joined in spirit by Erik (had a last minute work conflict), and Dave (wife wouldn’t let him have his balls), and Doug had a few investors of his own in Steve and his Dad.
Nobody lost money, at least none in the immediate group involved in Superfecta. It was the first year in a long time that we didn’t visit the casino.
Other items of note that didn’t make the main blog:
The “Bad TV” didn’t get enough of a mention above, so I need to mention it again.
Charlie and Phil always arguing, and Sonny’s imitation during the post derby fun.
The “Gotcha Bitch” Osama t-shirts that were being aggressively sold outside the track.
The back stairwell carnage, that progressively got worse by late Saturday night, culminating in Paul hearing someone complain about it at the main hotel counter Sunday morning.
Brett mentioned seeing “Barenaked Ladies” performing a free concert on 4th street on Friday night, unfortunately we were all too wrecked to make it.
Another Brett: "While waiting at the limo, drinking beer with chuck and phil, they needed me to move the limo because they boxed in a dude from abc/Lexington for 3 hours...I didn't have the keys- or so I thought! After another 40 minutes, I realized I had the keys!"
More Brett: “The IRS girl looking at me funny when I vouched for my brother and he proceeded to bet $2 to show! Hilarious!”
Last Brett: “Hitting the Tri in 2010 and being part of a Super in 2011....super high 5 next year!”
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
2011 Kentucky Derby analysis
1. ArchArchArch – I’ve been big on him for a few races. Like that he stays a little closer to pace than Nehro and Dialed In, meaning he may get first run on the leaders at the top of the lane. He’s also been training up very well at CD. ½ brother to Blame, who loved Churchill Downs. Jon Court is the perfect match for his running style. Will likely play everywhere. Thursday update: With him drawing the #1 post position I have to stick to the guns that I didn't stick to last year. I cannot play him to hit the board from the #1 hole on very many tickets at all. There is just too much for him to have to overcome, and quite simply (as I said with Lookin at Lucky in 2010), he isn't good enough (and I don't think he's as good as Lookin at Lucky).
2. Brilliant Speed – Closed into really slow fractions in the Bluegrass, which is impressive, but Dave is right, the Bluegrass has been a joke lately, though Street Sense did run 2nd in the Blue Grass a few years back. Seems to put in an honest run, but meh….3rd at the best.
3. Twice the Appeal – Definitely not good enough, and has distance concerns. Gets Borel, which will likely mean he is slightly overbet. Toss.
4. Stay Thirsty – Definitely well regarded, but top figure of 89 just doesn’t bode well for the Derby. Can’t find his PP’s right now, so will need to do more research.
5. Decisive Moment – Just not good enough, and again he has distance concerns. Toss.
6. CommaToTheTop – He will be on the front end with Pat Valenzuela, but I don’t think he can carry the speed, as he has been faltering at shorter distances in the stretch. Hope he goes really fast early. Toss.
7. Pants On Fire – I have severe distance concerns about him, coupled with a last race 94 Beyer, which is 10 pts higher than his previous best, am thinking he is topped out. Pass.
8. Dialed In – I don’t like his figures, I don’t like his running style considering the pace isn't going to be fast, he hasn’t beaten anybody, and he will likely deal with a lot of traffic problems. That’s the bad. Now the good. Been training really well, has a win at Churchill, his sire was a monster, and the distance will not be a problem. I’m just not sure he can overcome all of the difficulties he will face. Easily will be all over the tickets, unless he happens to draw the inside post, in which case I think you just play against.
9. Derby Kitten - Probably best suited for the grass, this one is well bred. I can't forget Dean's Kitten last year not running well at Churchill. If the track is wet I think I will ignore completely, but he's the one I have a hunch may pick up the pieces late and hit the bottom of the superfecta.
10. Twinspired - Only race on dirt was his worst one. Was close to early fractions in Blue Grass and couldn’t hang on. Distance shouldn’t be a concern, and I could see maybe playing for 4th, but probably no higher.
11. Master of Hounds – I am intrigued by him, especially a big performance in the 1 3/16 mile race last out, but if there is anything that I learned last year, it’s not too ask a horse to do too many new things in the Derby. 1st race on dirt (1 on synthetic), travelling overseas to race. He was 2 lengths behind Soldat in the BC Juv Trf last October for reference, and Soldat improved a lot from last year. We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again….Aidan O’Brien has no clue how to prepare a horse for the Derby. Until he proves otherwise to me, I can’t play him for the win, unless the odds are extraordinary. That being said, due to the weak nature of this field, I can probably play him as high as 2nd, though more likely 3rd.
12. Santiva – I’ll toss his Blue Grass, as it was on Poly and he ran into traffic issues. The main concern is 1 figure over 90. Only win did come at Churchill. Giants Causeway is a stud of a sire. I’m thinking outside chance of hitting the board here.
13. Mucho Macho Man – Not really big on him. Looks like this years Awesome Act. In a race like this you can’t afford to play them all. Thinking 3rd at best.
14. Shackleford – Has won at 1 1/8 miles, almost won twice at the distance, but top fig of 93, and was laboring down the lane. I think the last 1/8 of a mile will be too much to overcome, especially considering his pedigree. Toss.
15. Midnight Interlude – Most people don’t really like him, and say that the California fields are weak this year. They also tout the slow pace of the Santa Anita as a knock. But the truth is that the pace may be set by Comma to the Top, who set the pace in the Santa Anita. Also a believer in Baffert, so I will probably play him strongly, especially if he hovers around 8 or 10-1. Want to see how his final workout goes.
16. Animal Kingdom – Watched his Spiral Stakes race as I was curious on him. He made a Derby winning move around the turn, but he was closing into pretty honest fractions, and his splits for each of the last ¼ miles was nothing to write home about. Apparently he is training GREAT over the track, and he should love the added distance. But, has never raced on dirt, 3 times on synthetic. Going to play him, just not sure how high.
17. Soldat – Tried rating in the Fla Derby and it didn’t work. When he was on the lead they weren’t very fast fractions, but maybe he just doesn’t like dirt thrown on him. His best dry track race was a 96 at Gulfstream on the lead, which is inherently a speed favoring track. His top beyer of 103 was on a speed favoring track in the slop. So despite reports of him training up well, I am inclined to toss him, unless the track comes up wet.
18. Uncle Mo – Sire was best at a mile, and had lead in his Derby briefly on turn. But he has the 2 best dry track beyers of anyone not named “The Factor” in the field by far. If he isn’t a prohibitive favorite, there is something wrong. Let’s not search for something that isn’t there. I don’t like the “runs” excuse, but I am willing to forgive one bad race, especially when that race is a 92 beyer when setting decent fractions on the front end. The fact that that bad race occurred right before the Derby will do nothing but help the price.
19. Nehro – Getting better with every start. Figures never topped 100, but they are going in the right direction. I’m not thrilled about Nakatani as the jock, and you have to worry about potential traffic troubles, but I think you have to play him everywhere.
20. Watch Me Go - I just can’t play a horse whose highest figure in 10 starts is an 84. He has beaten nobody in this field that I can see, and is an easy toss. Beware that he is the 2011 Mine That Bird.
Predicted order of finish:
1st - Nehro
2nd - Animal Kingdom
3rd - Uncle Mo
4th - Derby Kitten
2. Brilliant Speed – Closed into really slow fractions in the Bluegrass, which is impressive, but Dave is right, the Bluegrass has been a joke lately, though Street Sense did run 2nd in the Blue Grass a few years back. Seems to put in an honest run, but meh….3rd at the best.
3. Twice the Appeal – Definitely not good enough, and has distance concerns. Gets Borel, which will likely mean he is slightly overbet. Toss.
4. Stay Thirsty – Definitely well regarded, but top figure of 89 just doesn’t bode well for the Derby. Can’t find his PP’s right now, so will need to do more research.
5. Decisive Moment – Just not good enough, and again he has distance concerns. Toss.
6. CommaToTheTop – He will be on the front end with Pat Valenzuela, but I don’t think he can carry the speed, as he has been faltering at shorter distances in the stretch. Hope he goes really fast early. Toss.
7. Pants On Fire – I have severe distance concerns about him, coupled with a last race 94 Beyer, which is 10 pts higher than his previous best, am thinking he is topped out. Pass.
8. Dialed In – I don’t like his figures, I don’t like his running style considering the pace isn't going to be fast, he hasn’t beaten anybody, and he will likely deal with a lot of traffic problems. That’s the bad. Now the good. Been training really well, has a win at Churchill, his sire was a monster, and the distance will not be a problem. I’m just not sure he can overcome all of the difficulties he will face. Easily will be all over the tickets, unless he happens to draw the inside post, in which case I think you just play against.
9. Derby Kitten - Probably best suited for the grass, this one is well bred. I can't forget Dean's Kitten last year not running well at Churchill. If the track is wet I think I will ignore completely, but he's the one I have a hunch may pick up the pieces late and hit the bottom of the superfecta.
10. Twinspired - Only race on dirt was his worst one. Was close to early fractions in Blue Grass and couldn’t hang on. Distance shouldn’t be a concern, and I could see maybe playing for 4th, but probably no higher.
11. Master of Hounds – I am intrigued by him, especially a big performance in the 1 3/16 mile race last out, but if there is anything that I learned last year, it’s not too ask a horse to do too many new things in the Derby. 1st race on dirt (1 on synthetic), travelling overseas to race. He was 2 lengths behind Soldat in the BC Juv Trf last October for reference, and Soldat improved a lot from last year. We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again….Aidan O’Brien has no clue how to prepare a horse for the Derby. Until he proves otherwise to me, I can’t play him for the win, unless the odds are extraordinary. That being said, due to the weak nature of this field, I can probably play him as high as 2nd, though more likely 3rd.
12. Santiva – I’ll toss his Blue Grass, as it was on Poly and he ran into traffic issues. The main concern is 1 figure over 90. Only win did come at Churchill. Giants Causeway is a stud of a sire. I’m thinking outside chance of hitting the board here.
13. Mucho Macho Man – Not really big on him. Looks like this years Awesome Act. In a race like this you can’t afford to play them all. Thinking 3rd at best.
14. Shackleford – Has won at 1 1/8 miles, almost won twice at the distance, but top fig of 93, and was laboring down the lane. I think the last 1/8 of a mile will be too much to overcome, especially considering his pedigree. Toss.
15. Midnight Interlude – Most people don’t really like him, and say that the California fields are weak this year. They also tout the slow pace of the Santa Anita as a knock. But the truth is that the pace may be set by Comma to the Top, who set the pace in the Santa Anita. Also a believer in Baffert, so I will probably play him strongly, especially if he hovers around 8 or 10-1. Want to see how his final workout goes.
16. Animal Kingdom – Watched his Spiral Stakes race as I was curious on him. He made a Derby winning move around the turn, but he was closing into pretty honest fractions, and his splits for each of the last ¼ miles was nothing to write home about. Apparently he is training GREAT over the track, and he should love the added distance. But, has never raced on dirt, 3 times on synthetic. Going to play him, just not sure how high.
17. Soldat – Tried rating in the Fla Derby and it didn’t work. When he was on the lead they weren’t very fast fractions, but maybe he just doesn’t like dirt thrown on him. His best dry track race was a 96 at Gulfstream on the lead, which is inherently a speed favoring track. His top beyer of 103 was on a speed favoring track in the slop. So despite reports of him training up well, I am inclined to toss him, unless the track comes up wet.
18. Uncle Mo – Sire was best at a mile, and had lead in his Derby briefly on turn. But he has the 2 best dry track beyers of anyone not named “The Factor” in the field by far. If he isn’t a prohibitive favorite, there is something wrong. Let’s not search for something that isn’t there. I don’t like the “runs” excuse, but I am willing to forgive one bad race, especially when that race is a 92 beyer when setting decent fractions on the front end. The fact that that bad race occurred right before the Derby will do nothing but help the price.
19. Nehro – Getting better with every start. Figures never topped 100, but they are going in the right direction. I’m not thrilled about Nakatani as the jock, and you have to worry about potential traffic troubles, but I think you have to play him everywhere.
20. Watch Me Go - I just can’t play a horse whose highest figure in 10 starts is an 84. He has beaten nobody in this field that I can see, and is an easy toss. Beware that he is the 2011 Mine That Bird.
Predicted order of finish:
1st - Nehro
2nd - Animal Kingdom
3rd - Uncle Mo
4th - Derby Kitten
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