Daddy Nose Best - 2012 Kentucky Derby preview

The horses I'm doing near the end are clearly the ones that I have the least informed opinion of, outside of the outsiders that I don't plan on dedicating a single post to.  Daddy Nose Best is one of those horses that I have really been wrestling with in my mind.

The good:
1.  He is one of only 4 horses with a triple digit Beyer in the field, which will be required to win this race.
2.  He has twice won at a distance of a mile and an eighth.
3.  This is his third race of the year, which is again typically a big effort in the form cycle. 
4.  His running style suggests he will be a deep closer in this field, which figures to be good for him as it looks like a hot pace for this year.
5.  He has won on all 3 surfaces, which suggests that he shouldn't have a problem with the track. 
6.  All reports indicate that he is training up really well.

The bad:
1.  I believe he was the beneficiary of an absolutely PERFECT trip in the Sunland Derby, and think that speed figure may not be attainable under conditions any more adverse than what he received there.
2.  His ability to get the distance is a question mark.  His sire, Scat Daddy won the Florida Derby at a mile and an eighth, but Scat Daddy ran 18th in the Derby. 
3.  While his win was impressive in the Sunland Derby, it didn't appear that he was relishing the last eighth of a mile, which makes me question how much he wants another furlong.  But, the time for that final quarter mile was 12 and change, which wasn't all that bad.   
4. The first two starts of his career were at Churchill, with one being a decent 2nd in a MSW, and the other one being a  badly beaten 7th in another MSW. 
5.  His running style, while it may be flattered by the Derby pace, will likely require him to travel very wide, or weave through traffic.


Betting strategy: 
I'm thinking he's going to go off at 18-1 or so, which is a great price based on his last race Beyer.  He is getting largely overlooked due to the quality in this field.  He should definitely get a good pace to run at, and is one of the few in this field who you would expect to be running late.  I can't use him as a key horse, but I can certainly use him on my tickets, perhaps even as high as the win.