This is another one I just have no clue how to deal with.
The Good:
1) One of only 4 horses who has a triple digit Beyer speed figure, a 100 in a non-winners of 1 race at Gulfstream, on a "good" track, a race in which he beat Take Charge Indy.
2) His Risen Star race got a 98 Beyer at Fairgrounds. Combine that with a win at Belmont, and he has won on 3 different tracks.
3) There is stamina in his bloodlines, with both AP Indy and Giants Causeway as "grandparents".
4) His stalking style is almost a perfect fit for the Derby.
5) Pletcher....despite the Derby record one of the best in the business.
The Bad:
1) Horses out of Pulpit in general haven't seemed to get the Derby distance. Pulpit himself faded in the last eighth of a mile. El Padrino has seemed to flatten out a bit in the end of his races.
2) Both of his starts at 1 and 1/16 miles were revelations, then he regressed in the Florida Derby. A closer look at that race though may provide a reason for the struggle. He raced wide most of the way, and in watching that race, it seemed jockey JJ Castellano was more interested in keeping Union Rags in tight along the rail, then he was in racing his own horse. You can bet that Rafael Bejarano will not make that mistake in the Derby. Because of that, I argue that you could almost completely discount this race from his record.
3) 2 of his 3 wins were on an off track. It can definitely be argued that his chances increase if the going is wet.
Betting strategy:
Is he going to be overlooked? I'm not sure. His speed figures fit, his running style fits, he has one of the best trainers and a good jock. He also shares my birthday, which probably can't be a bad thing. I think he will go off around 12-1 or so, and I think that's a pretty good price on him.
So in the 30-45 minutes that I just spent devouring his past performances and race history, I believe I have talked myself into including him on most of my tickets, and believe he has a legitimate shot at winning.
No comments:
Post a Comment