Here is the final Kentucky Derby field, with my prediction at the end of this. Recall that last year I pegged the exacta in reverse order, and on track hit the trifecta and superfecta (as a team on the last bet).
1 - Daddy Long Legs - I didn't want to use him before, and him drawing the rail assures it. Until proven otherwise, Aidan O'Brien does not know how to win the Kentucky Derby.
2 - Optimizer - Basically an outsider in this group. I can play him for 4th....maybe.....and even then I don't feel very good about it.
3 - Take Charge Indy -Definitely a tough one to figure. Borel will get the rail as long as he wants it.
4 - Union Rags - Everybody in my Derby group is falling into the same trap, expecting him to take a step forward despite no evidence that he can, and paying a terrible price to boot. Does he have the talent? I don't know, but you are paying 9-2, near favoritism for the POSSIBILITY.
5 - Dullahan - He probably would have rather drawn a bit further outside, but I don't think it's a big deal. I'm inclined to say he's much more likely in 5th-8th place, than 1st-4th.
6 - Bodemeister - I think it's a very good draw. The question is can Smith get him to settle at the right pace to be able to carry his speed. It may all depend on how fast Trinniberg goes.
7 - Rousing Sermon - Outsider closer that may have a chance for 4th.
8 - Creative Cause - Most of my group is souring on him. I'm not sure that I have yet. Yes, he has hung a bit in the stretch, but he beat Bodemeister once.
9 - Trinniberg - He's a speedster, and I think he will lead for about 7/8 of a mile, and then fade. I'll be wheeling him in 19th and 20th place on all tickets.
10 - Daddy Nose Best - My daughters pick, but I think she is biased. I think he would need a perfect setup and trip to win, don't think he will get it.
11 - Alpha - Everything seems to be shaping up well for him. Good draw, training up well, added distance. Big threat.
12 - Prospective - Hard to see better than 4th for this outsider.
13 - Went The Day Well - I think he will be overrated based on the Animal Kingdom comparisons, but the simple fact is that despite his running style, he is not well suited for this distance. I'm inclined to toss him.
14 - Hansen - Is game, but I just don't think he will want the distance. 3rd at best, but I think he fades to 7th or 8th.
15 - Gemologist - He drew perfectly, and is a huge threat to win.
16 - El Padrino - Not a bad draw for him either. An outside threat at the win.
17 - Done Talking - The less time I talk about him, the better off I am.
18 - Sabercat - Another outsider that could maybe crash the party if the pace collapses. Thinking no though.
19 - I'll Have Another - I don't think he is as good as some of the others here, so I am inclined to pass.
20 - Liaison - He has Baffert and bad form. I pass.
21AE - My Adonis - Maybe he could crash the party also if the pace totally collapses, and that's even if he gets in the field. I will pass.
Now, the big moment....the prediction....in what is maybe the most difficult Kentucky Derby I have ever handicapped.
1st - Alpha
2nd - Bodemeister
3rd - Gemologist
4th - Take Charge Indy
No comments:
Post a Comment