The Good - There is an absolute ton to like about this horse leading into the race from my perspective. So many that I am going to have to itemize them:
1) He has never been beaten, undefeated in 5 starts.
2) He has heart. He got headed by Alpha in the Wood Memorial, and had that unique cliche quality to look another horse in the eye and not let him get by. Reminds me a bit of Silver Charm at this point.
3) His sire is Tiznow, who won the Breeders Cup Classic at the Derby distance twice, including once (and maybe twice) at Churchill Downs.
4) He owns two victories over the Churchill Downs track. As mentioned before, Churchill seems to be a unique course, some horses love it, others hate it. Gemologist has proven to like it.
5) His trainer, love him or hate him, knows what he is doing. He only has 1 Derby to his credit, but is one of the best in the business.
6) His speed figures have improved in EVERY race he has ever ran. This will be his 3rd race of the year, and he should be primed to run a big one.
7) His running style is versatile, he has won on the lead, and he has won rating slightly off of the pace. His stalking style insures that he should get a decent trip.
8) He has won at 4 different tracks (Aqueduct, Churchill, Gulfstream and Turfway), and 2 different surfaces (Dirt and Synthetic).
The Bad - Not a lot of bad here, but in the interest of fairness I have to at least list the things that concern me.
1) He got a great trip in the Wood Memorial, but barely held off Alpha who had a rough trip. The final eighth of a mile was also run in over 13 1/5 seconds, which is not fast.
2) His speed figures, while improving, are a little light by Derby standards, with a 98 in the Wood Memorial. To win this Derby a horse probably needs to run a 103-105. Certainly not the lowest in the field, but not the highest either.
Betting strategy - He's liable to go off as one of the 4 favorites, but it's difficult to estimate where he will settle out at in the betting. I'm guessing he settles in as the 3rd choice, somewhere around 7-1 behind Union Rags and Bodemeister. This is very likely to be one of my key horses for the trifecta and/or superfecta, due to his consistency, versatility, likelihood to get a clean trip, and feeling that he is ramping up into a big race.
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