The good: There is a lot to like about Creative Cause. First is his sire, Giant's Causeway is a beast. Believe Causeway ran 2nd in the Breeders Cup Classic at Churchill Downs, so affinity to Churchill and the 1 1/4 mile distance shouldn't be a problem.
Creative Cause ran 3rd at Churchill in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, beaten only a length by Hansen and Union Rags, so he definitely likes the track.
His top Beyer is a 102 from the San Felipe, in a race where he impressively ran by Bodemeister in the stretch. But, it looks like Bode got the worst from a trip perspective. While he was pulling along to set a fast pace, Creative Cause was stalking back in 4th-5th, and made a move around the turn.
His Beyer figures from his last 4 races were 94, 102, 92 and 92....it's possible that the 102 is the outlier. I'm inclined to think it is a legit 102 though, as Bodemeister appeared to legitimize that race with his run in the Arkansas Derby.
The bad: He bounced from that race in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing 2nd to I'll Have Another in a photo. His Beyer that race was 94, and the race wasn't visually impressive, especially considering that Creative Cause got a near perfect trip. But....he didn't need to win that race (similar to Union Rags last race), and it's possible they didn't have him totally amped up for the Santa Anita, preferring to focus on the big prize ahead.
He wore blinkers in his San Felipe (102 Beyer), then switched to no blinkers in the Santa Anita. The reports are that he will still have no blinkers for the Kentucky Derby. In general I am not a fan of going away from what worked in the best race of your career, but apparently the owner/trainer are going off of some less objective measure than speed rating and whether or not they won the race.
Betting strategy: He's probably going to be one of the top 4 choices, with odds settling somewhere around 8-1. Based on his one triple digit Beyer, and his victory over Bodemeister, he is definitely a significant threat to win. His running style suggests he should be able to carve out a decent trip a few lengths off the pace this time around as well. He has also never thrown a bad race, so you have to figure he will give it an honest try.
I don't feel he's the best horse in the field, but I definitely think he is one of the more honest, and could be worth using as a key horse in the Derby superfecta tickets.
2 comments:
he's definately solid and has the right running style, i just dont like how he seems to drift in the stretch when hit with the whip (watch the San Felipe...also notice it a bit in the BC Juvenile). obviously have to use him unless he draws a terrible post
I think it's more likely that he's just a young, inexperienced horse that tends to drift in the stretch when he begins to get tired. You see the same thing with Bodemeister in the San Felipe as well. That's why they were experimenting with removing the blinkers in the Santa Anita.
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