Over the next 2 weeks, I will be posting thoughts on many of the key 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders. Today is the 2nd of such profiles. Follow the link for the profile on Union Rags.
The good: Secret Circle is trained by Bob Baffert, who knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby, owning 3 winners to his credit (though I think it's deservedly 2 and a half, since he picked up War Emblem merely 2 weeks or so before the Derby).
He holds a win at Churchill Downs, which is always a positive for Derby prospects. That win also came in almost the best company around, as he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint, at odds of 2-5.
From a speed figure perspective he's a contender, with a top Beyer of 102, and 5 Beyers at 95 or over.
The bad : Let's move on to the bad at this point. His top 5 Beyer figures have come at the shorter distances, with 92's at his two longest races, the 1 1/16 mile Rebel and the 1 1/8 mile Arkansas Derby.
He doesn't pass the eye test either. In the previously mentioned Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint, which is run at 6 furlongs, he was weaving in and out in the stretch, with a 3 length margin reduced to a length at the wire. He lost the Sham Stakes in a 5 horse field at Santa Anita getting a great stalking trip at a mile distance. He followed that up with an impressive win in the Southwest Stakes for his top Beyer of 102, but he won that against a very weak field where he again got a perfect stalking trip. The Rebel may have been one of his best preparations for what he will see on the Derby, as he managed to sit a little further back of the pace, make a move on the turn, draw clear, but again floundered a bit in the late stretch to a fast closing Optimizer, who is nothing to speak of. His final prep was the 2nd place to Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby. 2nd to a huge race like that doesn't look bad on the surface, but if you watched that race, Secret Circle was struggling badly in the stretch, again drifted in and out in the lane, and was almost passed for 2nd.
These patterns are not a sign of a horse who wants more distance. Quite the contrary, I think he wants far less distance and may be best at distances between 6-8 furlongs. The 10 furlongs of the Derby will be far more than he ever bargained for. The only conceivable way he could win the race is to actually make the lead or the top 2 in very slow fractions, like 24 and change to the quarter, and 48 and change to the half, which is very unlikely the way this field is shaping up.
Betting strategy: With the emergence of Bodemeister and Dullahan as top contenders, he is very likely to be a nice price, maybe in the range of 20-1. The reality of it is that I think his win odds should be closer to 60-1. I think he stands very little chance of catching even the slightest piece of the pie given his limited distance ability. In my book he is a complete toss from all but the smallest of my tickets.
No comments:
Post a Comment