I'll Have Another - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview

I'll Have Another is a horse that has given me a lot of difficulty as far as handicapping.  I'm not sure that I can pinpoint the exact reasons why, but I have really struggled with him.

The good:
1)  He is 2 for 2 this year, winning a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 at Santa Anita.
2)  His speed figures for the year are decent, 96 and 94 in his two starts, and this being his 3rd race of the year he is definitely eligible to improve.
3)  His sire Flower Alley, didn't make the Derby distance when he raced in it, but he did follow up by winning the Travers and finished 2nd in the Breeders Cup, so the distance shouldn't be a problem.  
4)  His win over Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby was very game, although there is the question as to whether or not Creative Cause was wound very tightly for that start. 
5)  His running style should ensure that he gets a good trip.

The bad:
1)  His only race outside of California was a dismal performance in the Hopeful Stakes.  It's possible it was the sloppy track that was the reason for his performance.  But I am always skeptical of horses who throw their best few races on a specific track, especially when that track is not Churchill Downs. 
2)  His aforementioned Beyer Speed figures are a little on the low side, with a 96 being his highest.  He will have to step forward off of that.  The fact that he didn't improve in going an extra 1/16 of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby is also concerning. 
3)  In general, Flower Alley has been an average sire to this point.
4)  The Santa Anita Derby hasn't produced much in the Kentucky Derby lately, though the recent switch to dirt last year definitely increases it's relevance.  Last years Santa Anita Derby winner, Midnight Interlude raced poorly on Derby day.
5)  The running style previously mentioned as a plus, scares me slightly in that he may be a little too close to a hot, contested early pace.  In the Derby that Flower Alley ran in, he pressed the pace in 2nd but gave way after about 3/4 of a mile.

 Betting strategy:
He's likely to be in the 10-1 to 15-1 range, as despite being the Santa Anita Derby winner, he isn't getting a lot of attention.  I think that's right around where he should be, considering his 96 top Beyer, and the questions I have. 

My hopes were that after writing this up, some of my questions in my head would be resolved, but unfortunately that's not the case.  I would be surprised if he won, but not shocked.  My inclination is to leave him off of my personal smaller money tickets, but I believe we will use him in the Superfecta tickets, as it makes sense from a value perspective, likely even as a potential winner on some of the key tickets.