Hansen - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview

Hansen is probably the most accomplished horse in this field, and yet I find him one of the more difficult to handicap for this Derby because I have a lot of questions about him and how the race will play out. 

The good -
1.  He's won 4 of 6 starts, with 2 seconds the times he didn't win.
2.  He won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill in November, beating many of the horses that are racing again in the Derby.
3.  He appears to be very game, as he dug in when headed in the Juvenile.
4.  He's very consistent, last 4 Beyers 96, 95, 96, 94. 
5.  He's almost white as snow.  You will always know where he's at in the field, regardless of saddlecloth color.

The bad -
1.  He sure doesn't look like a horse that wants any more distance than he has already traveled.  His longest race, the Blue Grass at a mile and an eighth, he was caught in the stretch.  In the Juvenile at 1 and 1/16 miles, he was nearly caught, barely holding off a few challengers.  Tapit colts, like Pulpit colts, seem to be better around a mile to 1 and 1/16. 
2.  His running style is not the most conducive to winning the Derby.  He has been in front at nearly every call of his races except for the Gotham, where he stalked the pace in 2nd and ran a big race.  That was a new dimension that I expected to see in the Blue Grass, so either it was bad race riding by Dominguez, or the horse really wanted the lead (I'm inclined to believe this is the case).  In any case, wanting the lead in this Derby is not a good idea.
3.  His consistent speed figures that I alluded to, while nice, are not high enough to win the Derby.  He had a 94 in the Juvenile last year, and has now raced 3 times this year, with all between 95-96.  That seems like a horse that has topped out, and isn't going to make a huge jump the first Saturday in May, especially considering that his chances are likely to be compromised by the added distance and pace setup. 

Betting strategy -
He's probably going to be around 10-1 or so, which is a great price considering he's the 2 year old champion, and he's in good form this year as well.  That being said, that form doesn't look like it's good enough to be the best on Derby day.  On top of that, his running style and pedigree suggests he will be moving backwards at the wire rather than forward.  Unless the track is very speed favoring, or some of the early speed defects from the race, I am inclined to avoid him entirely on my tickets.  For superfecta strategy, I am inclined to play him as high as 3rd on a few backup style tickets, maybe 4th on a main ticket, but off the board on the primary tickets.