Just two weeks ago there was debate as to whether or not Bodemeister would even make the Derby field, as he needed a win or a 2nd place in the Arkansas Derby to secure his spot in the field. A 9 length victory and a 108 Beyer later and he is the presumed favorite (at least presumed by me).
The good -
1) He has the highest last race Beyer in the field, at 108. And he has 3 triple digit Beyers, whereas nobody else in the field even has 2.
2) He passes the eye test. As Sonny said, he "looks" fast.
3) His sire is Empire Maker, who won the Belmont, and ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, so despite the appearance that he portrays as a speed horse, he has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree.
4) Trained by Bob Baffert....as said in the Secret Circle post, he knows how to win Derbies.
5) He showed an ability to rate from just off the pace in the San Felipe, a race that he took the lead in the stretch, ran greenly, and was outfinished by Creative Cause. While finishing 2nd was disappointing, it shows a different dimension, that may be required to win the Derby.
6) The Arkansas Derby was won at Oaklawn Park, a surface that many consider to be very similar to Churchill Downs.
7) He is ridden by Mike Smith, who is widely considered the top jock around.
The bad - Not a lot of bad here, the stuff below is reaching.
1) Never raced as a 2 year old. Yes, this is a trend that he is bucking, as no horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 in like forever. Personally I feel it is meaningless, as he raced on January 16th, had it been 17 days earlier this point would have been moot.
2) Only 4 lifetime races. Similar to Gemologist, he is very lightly raced. He showed that lack of experience in the stretch of the San Felipe, when he weaved in and out in the stretch. Looked much more professional in the Arkansas Derby though.
3) His running style is what many will point to as a hang-up, and part of me wants to agree. The pace will likely be hot with the addition of Trinniberg to the field, and winning the Derby on the front end is an extremely difficult task, unless you are allowed to get away with moderate fractions. The hope for his backers is that Smith will be able to settle him in a good spot behind Trinniberg, and wait for him to inevitably stop. The key will be for Smith to judge the pace keenly and keep him in a striking position while not burning him up early.
Betting strategy - I think he will be the favorite. Top last race Beyer,. 3 triple digit Beyers, Bob Baffert, etc....probably somewhere around 4-1. I will likely use him everywhere on my tickets, but I don't forsee myself using him as a key horse, just due to the risk of him blowing himself out in a speed duel. If this race was devoid of early speed, I would have no problem keying on him, but that's not the case at this point. He looks to be the best horse in the field, but the best horse rarely wins the Derby. I expect him to throw a strong race, and am anxious to see if Gemologist, Creative Cause, Union Rags, Dullahan, or someone else can run him down.
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