Alpha is one of the more curious horses in this years projected Kentucky Derby field. There are a lot of things to like, things to not like, and some questions that I would have liked answered in the prep races that unfortunately still linger.
The good:
1) His top Beyer speed figure of 98 stacks up pretty well with the rest of the field, outside of Bodemeister. Sure, he will have to take a step forward to win, but that goes for almost every horse in the field.
2) His running style is prefect for the race, with his ideal spot probably 4th-7th down the backstretch, making a move on the turn.
3) His sire is Bernardini, out of AP Indy. His best race also came in his longest race, indicating he may get better with distance. The Derby distance shouldn't be a problem at all.
4) His top figure, in the Wood Memorial, he nearly passed Gemologist, despite getting a very troubled trip, and sustaining a cut on his leg.
The bad:
1) First, the obvious, his worst race by far came at Churchill Downs in the Juvenile, where he was a badly beaten 11th. He was fractious in the gate, so you could maybe discount this performance, but it's still there for all to see.
2) Despite running well at 3 of the 4 tracks he has been on, all dirt, none of them have been outside of New York. I am particularly suspicious of horses whose top figures have come at Aqueduct, as through personal experience they seem unlikely to repeat elsewhere.
3) The aforementioned cut/injury kept him out of training for a few days. He just had a sharp workout at Belmont Park which seems to indicate that he is healed, but you never want an interruption in training to coincide with your preparation for the biggest and most demanding race of his life.
4) Despite having a good run at Gemologist, he was never able to get by him. Was that a product of Gemologist heart, or an indictment against Alpha.
5) It's something I have noticed, and my friend Erin also brought it up to me. Bernardini colts seem to develop a bit later than other horses. Stay Thirsty last year comes to mind.
Betting strategy:
He is going to be a nice price in the Derby, potentially around 15-1, which is phenomenal considering his speed figures are comparable to horses that are expected to fall around the 5-1 to 8-1 range. He isn't being ignored, but in this Derby field there are a lot of other horses to take money in this field.
He should be able to manufacture a good trip, and be in good striking position when turning for home. The only real question is whether or not he is good enough to win.
My plan is to likely include Alpha on all of my tickets, likely in all of the spots, including the win. I have a few too many questions to use him as a key horse, but he would definitely not surprise me to see him crack the superfecta.
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