Take Charge Indy is a horse that I have been intrigued in from the start, primarily due to his breeding. I even have a future bet on him to win the Derby at something like 40-1. Let's examine further.
The good:
1) Start with the most obvious, the breeding. He is out of AP Indy, who is by Seattle Slew. That's a ton of classic victories. AP Indy won the Belmont and the Breeders Cup Classic. Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. His Dam, Take Charge Lady ran 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks, and won 9 stakes races, going as far as 1 and 1/16 miles. Stamina is not an issue with this one.
2) He has taken a step forward as a 3 year old, and this is his 3rd race in his form cycle. His high Beyer of 96 is a little light, and definitely shy of where he needs to be. But the curious thing about his Florida Derby (95) race was it earned a 104 Bris figure, which is right on par with Bodemeister's big effort in the Arkansas Derby. A similar case can be made for his race prior to the Florida Derby, where his Beyer was low (96), but his Bris figure was through the roof at 109. This leads me to believe that something is going on with Gulfstream Park Beyers and Bris speed figures that require those races to be looked at a little bit more closely. (The same goes for Union Rags as well)
3) His rider is Calvin Borel, who has won 3 derbies in 5 years. Churchill is his home track. Nobody, and I mean nobody knows that track as well as he does, and I am counting on him being able to judge pace better than any other rider.
4) He seems to be very versatile, as he has gained ground and passed horses in the stretch (all in his 2 year old campaign), and also raced well while on the lead.
The bad:
1) His Florida Derby win has been discounted as he was able to set leisurely fractions, which is true. Union Rags also got boxed in and was given a poor ride, which compromised his chances. He will not get that free run on the lead.
2) The aforementioned Beyer figures definitely need to improve from where they are at now. Again, part of this I question due to the difference between Beyers and Bris at Gulfstream, but strictly based on Beyers, he needs to take a step forward.
3) While his best races have happened this year, they also have happened either on the lead or very close to the lead. Running with that style could potentially negatively effect his chances.
4) He raced at Churchill Downs once, in the Juvenile. It was not necessarily a bad race, but not a good race either. He got an 83 beyer, in what was his first race on dirt, finishing 5th in a tough field. This can in part be explained by the fact that he was doing something for the first time. Each of his subsequent races have been on dirt.
Betting strategy:
He's going to be probably 12-1 to 15-1, and he may be longer than that in the exotics pools since Borel will certainly drive his win price down. I can't help but think he is WAY underrated, as he is getting almost no press, as people are downplaying his Florida Derby win, and overplaying a lot of his rivals. I believe that he can run forever, and the only question is can he take a step forward off of his last two Gulfstream races, although as I mentioned earlier, those Beyer figures are questionable to me.
I will certainly have him on all of my tickets, and likely lobby to have him on all of the super tickets as well. I'm not sure we can use him as key horse, but I think that is likely to be due to my other ticket investors, and not through any knock against him.
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