Take Charge Indy is a horse that I have been intrigued in from the start, primarily due to his breeding. I even have a future bet on him to win the Derby at something like 40-1. Let's examine further.
The good:
1) Start with the most obvious, the breeding. He is out of AP Indy, who is by Seattle Slew. That's a ton of classic victories. AP Indy won the Belmont and the Breeders Cup Classic. Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. His Dam, Take Charge Lady ran 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks, and won 9 stakes races, going as far as 1 and 1/16 miles. Stamina is not an issue with this one.
2) He has taken a step forward as a 3 year old, and this is his 3rd race in his form cycle. His high Beyer of 96 is a little light, and definitely shy of where he needs to be. But the curious thing about his Florida Derby (95) race was it earned a 104 Bris figure, which is right on par with Bodemeister's big effort in the Arkansas Derby. A similar case can be made for his race prior to the Florida Derby, where his Beyer was low (96), but his Bris figure was through the roof at 109. This leads me to believe that something is going on with Gulfstream Park Beyers and Bris speed figures that require those races to be looked at a little bit more closely. (The same goes for Union Rags as well)
3) His rider is Calvin Borel, who has won 3 derbies in 5 years. Churchill is his home track. Nobody, and I mean nobody knows that track as well as he does, and I am counting on him being able to judge pace better than any other rider.
4) He seems to be very versatile, as he has gained ground and passed horses in the stretch (all in his 2 year old campaign), and also raced well while on the lead.
The bad:
1) His Florida Derby win has been discounted as he was able to set leisurely fractions, which is true. Union Rags also got boxed in and was given a poor ride, which compromised his chances. He will not get that free run on the lead.
2) The aforementioned Beyer figures definitely need to improve from where they are at now. Again, part of this I question due to the difference between Beyers and Bris at Gulfstream, but strictly based on Beyers, he needs to take a step forward.
3) While his best races have happened this year, they also have happened either on the lead or very close to the lead. Running with that style could potentially negatively effect his chances.
4) He raced at Churchill Downs once, in the Juvenile. It was not necessarily a bad race, but not a good race either. He got an 83 beyer, in what was his first race on dirt, finishing 5th in a tough field. This can in part be explained by the fact that he was doing something for the first time. Each of his subsequent races have been on dirt.
Betting strategy:
He's going to be probably 12-1 to 15-1, and he may be longer than that in the exotics pools since Borel will certainly drive his win price down. I can't help but think he is WAY underrated, as he is getting almost no press, as people are downplaying his Florida Derby win, and overplaying a lot of his rivals. I believe that he can run forever, and the only question is can he take a step forward off of his last two Gulfstream races, although as I mentioned earlier, those Beyer figures are questionable to me.
I will certainly have him on all of my tickets, and likely lobby to have him on all of the super tickets as well. I'm not sure we can use him as key horse, but I think that is likely to be due to my other ticket investors, and not through any knock against him.
Monday, April 30, 2012
I'll Have Another - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
I'll Have Another is a horse that has given me a lot of difficulty as far as handicapping. I'm not sure that I can pinpoint the exact reasons why, but I have really struggled with him.
The good:
1) He is 2 for 2 this year, winning a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 at Santa Anita.
2) His speed figures for the year are decent, 96 and 94 in his two starts, and this being his 3rd race of the year he is definitely eligible to improve.
3) His sire Flower Alley, didn't make the Derby distance when he raced in it, but he did follow up by winning the Travers and finished 2nd in the Breeders Cup, so the distance shouldn't be a problem.
4) His win over Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby was very game, although there is the question as to whether or not Creative Cause was wound very tightly for that start.
5) His running style should ensure that he gets a good trip.
The bad:
1) His only race outside of California was a dismal performance in the Hopeful Stakes. It's possible it was the sloppy track that was the reason for his performance. But I am always skeptical of horses who throw their best few races on a specific track, especially when that track is not Churchill Downs.
2) His aforementioned Beyer Speed figures are a little on the low side, with a 96 being his highest. He will have to step forward off of that. The fact that he didn't improve in going an extra 1/16 of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby is also concerning.
3) In general, Flower Alley has been an average sire to this point.
4) The Santa Anita Derby hasn't produced much in the Kentucky Derby lately, though the recent switch to dirt last year definitely increases it's relevance. Last years Santa Anita Derby winner, Midnight Interlude raced poorly on Derby day.
5) The running style previously mentioned as a plus, scares me slightly in that he may be a little too close to a hot, contested early pace. In the Derby that Flower Alley ran in, he pressed the pace in 2nd but gave way after about 3/4 of a mile.
Betting strategy:
He's likely to be in the 10-1 to 15-1 range, as despite being the Santa Anita Derby winner, he isn't getting a lot of attention. I think that's right around where he should be, considering his 96 top Beyer, and the questions I have.
My hopes were that after writing this up, some of my questions in my head would be resolved, but unfortunately that's not the case. I would be surprised if he won, but not shocked. My inclination is to leave him off of my personal smaller money tickets, but I believe we will use him in the Superfecta tickets, as it makes sense from a value perspective, likely even as a potential winner on some of the key tickets.
The good:
1) He is 2 for 2 this year, winning a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 at Santa Anita.
2) His speed figures for the year are decent, 96 and 94 in his two starts, and this being his 3rd race of the year he is definitely eligible to improve.
3) His sire Flower Alley, didn't make the Derby distance when he raced in it, but he did follow up by winning the Travers and finished 2nd in the Breeders Cup, so the distance shouldn't be a problem.
4) His win over Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby was very game, although there is the question as to whether or not Creative Cause was wound very tightly for that start.
5) His running style should ensure that he gets a good trip.
The bad:
1) His only race outside of California was a dismal performance in the Hopeful Stakes. It's possible it was the sloppy track that was the reason for his performance. But I am always skeptical of horses who throw their best few races on a specific track, especially when that track is not Churchill Downs.
2) His aforementioned Beyer Speed figures are a little on the low side, with a 96 being his highest. He will have to step forward off of that. The fact that he didn't improve in going an extra 1/16 of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby is also concerning.
3) In general, Flower Alley has been an average sire to this point.
4) The Santa Anita Derby hasn't produced much in the Kentucky Derby lately, though the recent switch to dirt last year definitely increases it's relevance. Last years Santa Anita Derby winner, Midnight Interlude raced poorly on Derby day.
5) The running style previously mentioned as a plus, scares me slightly in that he may be a little too close to a hot, contested early pace. In the Derby that Flower Alley ran in, he pressed the pace in 2nd but gave way after about 3/4 of a mile.
Betting strategy:
He's likely to be in the 10-1 to 15-1 range, as despite being the Santa Anita Derby winner, he isn't getting a lot of attention. I think that's right around where he should be, considering his 96 top Beyer, and the questions I have.
My hopes were that after writing this up, some of my questions in my head would be resolved, but unfortunately that's not the case. I would be surprised if he won, but not shocked. My inclination is to leave him off of my personal smaller money tickets, but I believe we will use him in the Superfecta tickets, as it makes sense from a value perspective, likely even as a potential winner on some of the key tickets.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Alpha - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Alpha is one of the more curious horses in this years projected Kentucky Derby field. There are a lot of things to like, things to not like, and some questions that I would have liked answered in the prep races that unfortunately still linger.
The good:
1) His top Beyer speed figure of 98 stacks up pretty well with the rest of the field, outside of Bodemeister. Sure, he will have to take a step forward to win, but that goes for almost every horse in the field.
2) His running style is prefect for the race, with his ideal spot probably 4th-7th down the backstretch, making a move on the turn.
3) His sire is Bernardini, out of AP Indy. His best race also came in his longest race, indicating he may get better with distance. The Derby distance shouldn't be a problem at all.
4) His top figure, in the Wood Memorial, he nearly passed Gemologist, despite getting a very troubled trip, and sustaining a cut on his leg.
The bad:
1) First, the obvious, his worst race by far came at Churchill Downs in the Juvenile, where he was a badly beaten 11th. He was fractious in the gate, so you could maybe discount this performance, but it's still there for all to see.
2) Despite running well at 3 of the 4 tracks he has been on, all dirt, none of them have been outside of New York. I am particularly suspicious of horses whose top figures have come at Aqueduct, as through personal experience they seem unlikely to repeat elsewhere.
3) The aforementioned cut/injury kept him out of training for a few days. He just had a sharp workout at Belmont Park which seems to indicate that he is healed, but you never want an interruption in training to coincide with your preparation for the biggest and most demanding race of his life.
4) Despite having a good run at Gemologist, he was never able to get by him. Was that a product of Gemologist heart, or an indictment against Alpha.
5) It's something I have noticed, and my friend Erin also brought it up to me. Bernardini colts seem to develop a bit later than other horses. Stay Thirsty last year comes to mind.
Betting strategy:
He is going to be a nice price in the Derby, potentially around 15-1, which is phenomenal considering his speed figures are comparable to horses that are expected to fall around the 5-1 to 8-1 range. He isn't being ignored, but in this Derby field there are a lot of other horses to take money in this field.
He should be able to manufacture a good trip, and be in good striking position when turning for home. The only real question is whether or not he is good enough to win.
My plan is to likely include Alpha on all of my tickets, likely in all of the spots, including the win. I have a few too many questions to use him as a key horse, but he would definitely not surprise me to see him crack the superfecta.
The good:
1) His top Beyer speed figure of 98 stacks up pretty well with the rest of the field, outside of Bodemeister. Sure, he will have to take a step forward to win, but that goes for almost every horse in the field.
2) His running style is prefect for the race, with his ideal spot probably 4th-7th down the backstretch, making a move on the turn.
3) His sire is Bernardini, out of AP Indy. His best race also came in his longest race, indicating he may get better with distance. The Derby distance shouldn't be a problem at all.
4) His top figure, in the Wood Memorial, he nearly passed Gemologist, despite getting a very troubled trip, and sustaining a cut on his leg.
The bad:
1) First, the obvious, his worst race by far came at Churchill Downs in the Juvenile, where he was a badly beaten 11th. He was fractious in the gate, so you could maybe discount this performance, but it's still there for all to see.
2) Despite running well at 3 of the 4 tracks he has been on, all dirt, none of them have been outside of New York. I am particularly suspicious of horses whose top figures have come at Aqueduct, as through personal experience they seem unlikely to repeat elsewhere.
3) The aforementioned cut/injury kept him out of training for a few days. He just had a sharp workout at Belmont Park which seems to indicate that he is healed, but you never want an interruption in training to coincide with your preparation for the biggest and most demanding race of his life.
4) Despite having a good run at Gemologist, he was never able to get by him. Was that a product of Gemologist heart, or an indictment against Alpha.
5) It's something I have noticed, and my friend Erin also brought it up to me. Bernardini colts seem to develop a bit later than other horses. Stay Thirsty last year comes to mind.
Betting strategy:
He is going to be a nice price in the Derby, potentially around 15-1, which is phenomenal considering his speed figures are comparable to horses that are expected to fall around the 5-1 to 8-1 range. He isn't being ignored, but in this Derby field there are a lot of other horses to take money in this field.
He should be able to manufacture a good trip, and be in good striking position when turning for home. The only real question is whether or not he is good enough to win.
My plan is to likely include Alpha on all of my tickets, likely in all of the spots, including the win. I have a few too many questions to use him as a key horse, but he would definitely not surprise me to see him crack the superfecta.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Hansen - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Hansen is probably the most accomplished horse in this field, and yet I find him one of the more difficult to handicap for this Derby because I have a lot of questions about him and how the race will play out.
The good -
1. He's won 4 of 6 starts, with 2 seconds the times he didn't win.
2. He won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill in November, beating many of the horses that are racing again in the Derby.
3. He appears to be very game, as he dug in when headed in the Juvenile.
4. He's very consistent, last 4 Beyers 96, 95, 96, 94.
5. He's almost white as snow. You will always know where he's at in the field, regardless of saddlecloth color.
The bad -
1. He sure doesn't look like a horse that wants any more distance than he has already traveled. His longest race, the Blue Grass at a mile and an eighth, he was caught in the stretch. In the Juvenile at 1 and 1/16 miles, he was nearly caught, barely holding off a few challengers. Tapit colts, like Pulpit colts, seem to be better around a mile to 1 and 1/16.
2. His running style is not the most conducive to winning the Derby. He has been in front at nearly every call of his races except for the Gotham, where he stalked the pace in 2nd and ran a big race. That was a new dimension that I expected to see in the Blue Grass, so either it was bad race riding by Dominguez, or the horse really wanted the lead (I'm inclined to believe this is the case). In any case, wanting the lead in this Derby is not a good idea.
3. His consistent speed figures that I alluded to, while nice, are not high enough to win the Derby. He had a 94 in the Juvenile last year, and has now raced 3 times this year, with all between 95-96. That seems like a horse that has topped out, and isn't going to make a huge jump the first Saturday in May, especially considering that his chances are likely to be compromised by the added distance and pace setup.
Betting strategy -
He's probably going to be around 10-1 or so, which is a great price considering he's the 2 year old champion, and he's in good form this year as well. That being said, that form doesn't look like it's good enough to be the best on Derby day. On top of that, his running style and pedigree suggests he will be moving backwards at the wire rather than forward. Unless the track is very speed favoring, or some of the early speed defects from the race, I am inclined to avoid him entirely on my tickets. For superfecta strategy, I am inclined to play him as high as 3rd on a few backup style tickets, maybe 4th on a main ticket, but off the board on the primary tickets.
The good -
1. He's won 4 of 6 starts, with 2 seconds the times he didn't win.
2. He won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill in November, beating many of the horses that are racing again in the Derby.
3. He appears to be very game, as he dug in when headed in the Juvenile.
4. He's very consistent, last 4 Beyers 96, 95, 96, 94.
5. He's almost white as snow. You will always know where he's at in the field, regardless of saddlecloth color.
The bad -
1. He sure doesn't look like a horse that wants any more distance than he has already traveled. His longest race, the Blue Grass at a mile and an eighth, he was caught in the stretch. In the Juvenile at 1 and 1/16 miles, he was nearly caught, barely holding off a few challengers. Tapit colts, like Pulpit colts, seem to be better around a mile to 1 and 1/16.
2. His running style is not the most conducive to winning the Derby. He has been in front at nearly every call of his races except for the Gotham, where he stalked the pace in 2nd and ran a big race. That was a new dimension that I expected to see in the Blue Grass, so either it was bad race riding by Dominguez, or the horse really wanted the lead (I'm inclined to believe this is the case). In any case, wanting the lead in this Derby is not a good idea.
3. His consistent speed figures that I alluded to, while nice, are not high enough to win the Derby. He had a 94 in the Juvenile last year, and has now raced 3 times this year, with all between 95-96. That seems like a horse that has topped out, and isn't going to make a huge jump the first Saturday in May, especially considering that his chances are likely to be compromised by the added distance and pace setup.
Betting strategy -
He's probably going to be around 10-1 or so, which is a great price considering he's the 2 year old champion, and he's in good form this year as well. That being said, that form doesn't look like it's good enough to be the best on Derby day. On top of that, his running style and pedigree suggests he will be moving backwards at the wire rather than forward. Unless the track is very speed favoring, or some of the early speed defects from the race, I am inclined to avoid him entirely on my tickets. For superfecta strategy, I am inclined to play him as high as 3rd on a few backup style tickets, maybe 4th on a main ticket, but off the board on the primary tickets.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Bodemeister - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Just two weeks ago there was debate as to whether or not Bodemeister would even make the Derby field, as he needed a win or a 2nd place in the Arkansas Derby to secure his spot in the field. A 9 length victory and a 108 Beyer later and he is the presumed favorite (at least presumed by me).
The good -
1) He has the highest last race Beyer in the field, at 108. And he has 3 triple digit Beyers, whereas nobody else in the field even has 2.
2) He passes the eye test. As Sonny said, he "looks" fast.
3) His sire is Empire Maker, who won the Belmont, and ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, so despite the appearance that he portrays as a speed horse, he has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree.
4) Trained by Bob Baffert....as said in the Secret Circle post, he knows how to win Derbies.
5) He showed an ability to rate from just off the pace in the San Felipe, a race that he took the lead in the stretch, ran greenly, and was outfinished by Creative Cause. While finishing 2nd was disappointing, it shows a different dimension, that may be required to win the Derby.
6) The Arkansas Derby was won at Oaklawn Park, a surface that many consider to be very similar to Churchill Downs.
7) He is ridden by Mike Smith, who is widely considered the top jock around.
The bad - Not a lot of bad here, the stuff below is reaching.
1) Never raced as a 2 year old. Yes, this is a trend that he is bucking, as no horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 in like forever. Personally I feel it is meaningless, as he raced on January 16th, had it been 17 days earlier this point would have been moot.
2) Only 4 lifetime races. Similar to Gemologist, he is very lightly raced. He showed that lack of experience in the stretch of the San Felipe, when he weaved in and out in the stretch. Looked much more professional in the Arkansas Derby though.
3) His running style is what many will point to as a hang-up, and part of me wants to agree. The pace will likely be hot with the addition of Trinniberg to the field, and winning the Derby on the front end is an extremely difficult task, unless you are allowed to get away with moderate fractions. The hope for his backers is that Smith will be able to settle him in a good spot behind Trinniberg, and wait for him to inevitably stop. The key will be for Smith to judge the pace keenly and keep him in a striking position while not burning him up early.
Betting strategy - I think he will be the favorite. Top last race Beyer,. 3 triple digit Beyers, Bob Baffert, etc....probably somewhere around 4-1. I will likely use him everywhere on my tickets, but I don't forsee myself using him as a key horse, just due to the risk of him blowing himself out in a speed duel. If this race was devoid of early speed, I would have no problem keying on him, but that's not the case at this point. He looks to be the best horse in the field, but the best horse rarely wins the Derby. I expect him to throw a strong race, and am anxious to see if Gemologist, Creative Cause, Union Rags, Dullahan, or someone else can run him down.
The good -
1) He has the highest last race Beyer in the field, at 108. And he has 3 triple digit Beyers, whereas nobody else in the field even has 2.
2) He passes the eye test. As Sonny said, he "looks" fast.
3) His sire is Empire Maker, who won the Belmont, and ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, so despite the appearance that he portrays as a speed horse, he has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree.
4) Trained by Bob Baffert....as said in the Secret Circle post, he knows how to win Derbies.
5) He showed an ability to rate from just off the pace in the San Felipe, a race that he took the lead in the stretch, ran greenly, and was outfinished by Creative Cause. While finishing 2nd was disappointing, it shows a different dimension, that may be required to win the Derby.
6) The Arkansas Derby was won at Oaklawn Park, a surface that many consider to be very similar to Churchill Downs.
7) He is ridden by Mike Smith, who is widely considered the top jock around.
The bad - Not a lot of bad here, the stuff below is reaching.
1) Never raced as a 2 year old. Yes, this is a trend that he is bucking, as no horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 in like forever. Personally I feel it is meaningless, as he raced on January 16th, had it been 17 days earlier this point would have been moot.
2) Only 4 lifetime races. Similar to Gemologist, he is very lightly raced. He showed that lack of experience in the stretch of the San Felipe, when he weaved in and out in the stretch. Looked much more professional in the Arkansas Derby though.
3) His running style is what many will point to as a hang-up, and part of me wants to agree. The pace will likely be hot with the addition of Trinniberg to the field, and winning the Derby on the front end is an extremely difficult task, unless you are allowed to get away with moderate fractions. The hope for his backers is that Smith will be able to settle him in a good spot behind Trinniberg, and wait for him to inevitably stop. The key will be for Smith to judge the pace keenly and keep him in a striking position while not burning him up early.
Betting strategy - I think he will be the favorite. Top last race Beyer,. 3 triple digit Beyers, Bob Baffert, etc....probably somewhere around 4-1. I will likely use him everywhere on my tickets, but I don't forsee myself using him as a key horse, just due to the risk of him blowing himself out in a speed duel. If this race was devoid of early speed, I would have no problem keying on him, but that's not the case at this point. He looks to be the best horse in the field, but the best horse rarely wins the Derby. I expect him to throw a strong race, and am anxious to see if Gemologist, Creative Cause, Union Rags, Dullahan, or someone else can run him down.
Dullahan - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Back in February I made a futures bet on Dullahan to win the Kentucky Derby at 40-1. I don't really remember what it is I liked about him back then, coming off of his 4th place in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but he has certainly moved forward since then.
The Good:
1) He finally seemed to put things altogether in the Blue Grass, coming from well off the the pace, and making a Derby type winning move down the lane to get by Hansen.
2) His speed figures are improving with every race, albeit a very slow incline.
3) He has a sold foundation of 4 races over 1 mile at 2, and now two races at 1 1/8 miles at 3.
4) He is moving into his all-important 3rd race of the year in his form cycle, suggesting he could peak with the Derby.
5) He was a 250K purchase as a yearling, so somebody sees a lot of talent in him.
6) Dale Romans led Shackleford through the Triple Crown campaign last year, and I suspect he learned some things for this go-around.
7) Kent Desormeaux knows how to win Derbies, with 3 wins to his credit.
The Bad:
1) He has two races at Churchill in his career, a 5th place in a maiden race, and then a 4th in the Juvenile, beaten by 3 horses who are going in the Derby this year. While Dullahan has improved since then, so have at least 2 of the horses who finished ahead of him.
2) His speed figures seem a little light, with the 98 in the Blue Grass being his only race above a 90 in 7 previous starts. His highest dirt Beyer is an 83. His best races thus far have been on Polytrack and Turf.
3) His Blue Grass race gave him almost a perfect trip, chasing a pretty hot pace that set it up perfectly for him.
4) His running style, while likely to be flattered by a hot Derby pace, may force him to cover a lot of extra ground, and may get him blocked behind traffic.
5) He has 8 starts, and his record of 2-2-2 in those starts isn't the most inspiring.
6) I don't know a lot about his sire, Even the Score, but his sires sire was Unbridled's Song, who couldn't get the Derby distance.
Betting Strategy:
He is likely to be around the 5th choice in the Derby, with odds somewhere between 10-1 and 12-1. He may even go lower as sort of a wise guy horse. He is likely to be coming late, but based on everything that I have examined, it's going to be asking an awful lot for him to be the winner. To make him the winner, you have to be able to surmise that he will run better on Churchill this time than the previous two chances that he had, turn the tables on the 3 horses that finished ahead of him in the Juvenile on the same track, battle through the likely traffic trouble he will need to overcome, and also improve 5-7 Beyer figure points.
I could see playing him in 1st on a few backup type tickets, in 2nd on many tickets, and 3rd on virtually all tickets.
The Good:
1) He finally seemed to put things altogether in the Blue Grass, coming from well off the the pace, and making a Derby type winning move down the lane to get by Hansen.
2) His speed figures are improving with every race, albeit a very slow incline.
3) He has a sold foundation of 4 races over 1 mile at 2, and now two races at 1 1/8 miles at 3.
4) He is moving into his all-important 3rd race of the year in his form cycle, suggesting he could peak with the Derby.
5) He was a 250K purchase as a yearling, so somebody sees a lot of talent in him.
6) Dale Romans led Shackleford through the Triple Crown campaign last year, and I suspect he learned some things for this go-around.
7) Kent Desormeaux knows how to win Derbies, with 3 wins to his credit.
The Bad:
1) He has two races at Churchill in his career, a 5th place in a maiden race, and then a 4th in the Juvenile, beaten by 3 horses who are going in the Derby this year. While Dullahan has improved since then, so have at least 2 of the horses who finished ahead of him.
2) His speed figures seem a little light, with the 98 in the Blue Grass being his only race above a 90 in 7 previous starts. His highest dirt Beyer is an 83. His best races thus far have been on Polytrack and Turf.
3) His Blue Grass race gave him almost a perfect trip, chasing a pretty hot pace that set it up perfectly for him.
4) His running style, while likely to be flattered by a hot Derby pace, may force him to cover a lot of extra ground, and may get him blocked behind traffic.
5) He has 8 starts, and his record of 2-2-2 in those starts isn't the most inspiring.
6) I don't know a lot about his sire, Even the Score, but his sires sire was Unbridled's Song, who couldn't get the Derby distance.
Betting Strategy:
He is likely to be around the 5th choice in the Derby, with odds somewhere between 10-1 and 12-1. He may even go lower as sort of a wise guy horse. He is likely to be coming late, but based on everything that I have examined, it's going to be asking an awful lot for him to be the winner. To make him the winner, you have to be able to surmise that he will run better on Churchill this time than the previous two chances that he had, turn the tables on the 3 horses that finished ahead of him in the Juvenile on the same track, battle through the likely traffic trouble he will need to overcome, and also improve 5-7 Beyer figure points.
I could see playing him in 1st on a few backup type tickets, in 2nd on many tickets, and 3rd on virtually all tickets.
Gemologist - 2012 Kentucky Derby Profile
The Good - There is an absolute ton to like about this horse leading into the race from my perspective. So many that I am going to have to itemize them:
1) He has never been beaten, undefeated in 5 starts.
2) He has heart. He got headed by Alpha in the Wood Memorial, and had that unique cliche quality to look another horse in the eye and not let him get by. Reminds me a bit of Silver Charm at this point.
3) His sire is Tiznow, who won the Breeders Cup Classic at the Derby distance twice, including once (and maybe twice) at Churchill Downs.
4) He owns two victories over the Churchill Downs track. As mentioned before, Churchill seems to be a unique course, some horses love it, others hate it. Gemologist has proven to like it.
5) His trainer, love him or hate him, knows what he is doing. He only has 1 Derby to his credit, but is one of the best in the business.
6) His speed figures have improved in EVERY race he has ever ran. This will be his 3rd race of the year, and he should be primed to run a big one.
7) His running style is versatile, he has won on the lead, and he has won rating slightly off of the pace. His stalking style insures that he should get a decent trip.
8) He has won at 4 different tracks (Aqueduct, Churchill, Gulfstream and Turfway), and 2 different surfaces (Dirt and Synthetic).
The Bad - Not a lot of bad here, but in the interest of fairness I have to at least list the things that concern me.
1) He got a great trip in the Wood Memorial, but barely held off Alpha who had a rough trip. The final eighth of a mile was also run in over 13 1/5 seconds, which is not fast.
2) His speed figures, while improving, are a little light by Derby standards, with a 98 in the Wood Memorial. To win this Derby a horse probably needs to run a 103-105. Certainly not the lowest in the field, but not the highest either.
Betting strategy - He's liable to go off as one of the 4 favorites, but it's difficult to estimate where he will settle out at in the betting. I'm guessing he settles in as the 3rd choice, somewhere around 7-1 behind Union Rags and Bodemeister. This is very likely to be one of my key horses for the trifecta and/or superfecta, due to his consistency, versatility, likelihood to get a clean trip, and feeling that he is ramping up into a big race.
1) He has never been beaten, undefeated in 5 starts.
2) He has heart. He got headed by Alpha in the Wood Memorial, and had that unique cliche quality to look another horse in the eye and not let him get by. Reminds me a bit of Silver Charm at this point.
3) His sire is Tiznow, who won the Breeders Cup Classic at the Derby distance twice, including once (and maybe twice) at Churchill Downs.
4) He owns two victories over the Churchill Downs track. As mentioned before, Churchill seems to be a unique course, some horses love it, others hate it. Gemologist has proven to like it.
5) His trainer, love him or hate him, knows what he is doing. He only has 1 Derby to his credit, but is one of the best in the business.
6) His speed figures have improved in EVERY race he has ever ran. This will be his 3rd race of the year, and he should be primed to run a big one.
7) His running style is versatile, he has won on the lead, and he has won rating slightly off of the pace. His stalking style insures that he should get a decent trip.
8) He has won at 4 different tracks (Aqueduct, Churchill, Gulfstream and Turfway), and 2 different surfaces (Dirt and Synthetic).
The Bad - Not a lot of bad here, but in the interest of fairness I have to at least list the things that concern me.
1) He got a great trip in the Wood Memorial, but barely held off Alpha who had a rough trip. The final eighth of a mile was also run in over 13 1/5 seconds, which is not fast.
2) His speed figures, while improving, are a little light by Derby standards, with a 98 in the Wood Memorial. To win this Derby a horse probably needs to run a 103-105. Certainly not the lowest in the field, but not the highest either.
Betting strategy - He's liable to go off as one of the 4 favorites, but it's difficult to estimate where he will settle out at in the betting. I'm guessing he settles in as the 3rd choice, somewhere around 7-1 behind Union Rags and Bodemeister. This is very likely to be one of my key horses for the trifecta and/or superfecta, due to his consistency, versatility, likelihood to get a clean trip, and feeling that he is ramping up into a big race.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Creative Cause - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
The good: There is a lot to like about Creative Cause. First is his sire, Giant's Causeway is a beast. Believe Causeway ran 2nd in the Breeders Cup Classic at Churchill Downs, so affinity to Churchill and the 1 1/4 mile distance shouldn't be a problem.
Creative Cause ran 3rd at Churchill in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, beaten only a length by Hansen and Union Rags, so he definitely likes the track.
His top Beyer is a 102 from the San Felipe, in a race where he impressively ran by Bodemeister in the stretch. But, it looks like Bode got the worst from a trip perspective. While he was pulling along to set a fast pace, Creative Cause was stalking back in 4th-5th, and made a move around the turn.
His Beyer figures from his last 4 races were 94, 102, 92 and 92....it's possible that the 102 is the outlier. I'm inclined to think it is a legit 102 though, as Bodemeister appeared to legitimize that race with his run in the Arkansas Derby.
The bad: He bounced from that race in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing 2nd to I'll Have Another in a photo. His Beyer that race was 94, and the race wasn't visually impressive, especially considering that Creative Cause got a near perfect trip. But....he didn't need to win that race (similar to Union Rags last race), and it's possible they didn't have him totally amped up for the Santa Anita, preferring to focus on the big prize ahead.
He wore blinkers in his San Felipe (102 Beyer), then switched to no blinkers in the Santa Anita. The reports are that he will still have no blinkers for the Kentucky Derby. In general I am not a fan of going away from what worked in the best race of your career, but apparently the owner/trainer are going off of some less objective measure than speed rating and whether or not they won the race.
Betting strategy: He's probably going to be one of the top 4 choices, with odds settling somewhere around 8-1. Based on his one triple digit Beyer, and his victory over Bodemeister, he is definitely a significant threat to win. His running style suggests he should be able to carve out a decent trip a few lengths off the pace this time around as well. He has also never thrown a bad race, so you have to figure he will give it an honest try.
I don't feel he's the best horse in the field, but I definitely think he is one of the more honest, and could be worth using as a key horse in the Derby superfecta tickets.
Secret Circle - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Over the next 2 weeks, I will be posting thoughts on many of the key 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders. Today is the 2nd of such profiles. Follow the link for the profile on Union Rags.
The good: Secret Circle is trained by Bob Baffert, who knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby, owning 3 winners to his credit (though I think it's deservedly 2 and a half, since he picked up War Emblem merely 2 weeks or so before the Derby).
He holds a win at Churchill Downs, which is always a positive for Derby prospects. That win also came in almost the best company around, as he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint, at odds of 2-5.
From a speed figure perspective he's a contender, with a top Beyer of 102, and 5 Beyers at 95 or over.
The bad : Let's move on to the bad at this point. His top 5 Beyer figures have come at the shorter distances, with 92's at his two longest races, the 1 1/16 mile Rebel and the 1 1/8 mile Arkansas Derby.
He doesn't pass the eye test either. In the previously mentioned Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint, which is run at 6 furlongs, he was weaving in and out in the stretch, with a 3 length margin reduced to a length at the wire. He lost the Sham Stakes in a 5 horse field at Santa Anita getting a great stalking trip at a mile distance. He followed that up with an impressive win in the Southwest Stakes for his top Beyer of 102, but he won that against a very weak field where he again got a perfect stalking trip. The Rebel may have been one of his best preparations for what he will see on the Derby, as he managed to sit a little further back of the pace, make a move on the turn, draw clear, but again floundered a bit in the late stretch to a fast closing Optimizer, who is nothing to speak of. His final prep was the 2nd place to Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby. 2nd to a huge race like that doesn't look bad on the surface, but if you watched that race, Secret Circle was struggling badly in the stretch, again drifted in and out in the lane, and was almost passed for 2nd.
These patterns are not a sign of a horse who wants more distance. Quite the contrary, I think he wants far less distance and may be best at distances between 6-8 furlongs. The 10 furlongs of the Derby will be far more than he ever bargained for. The only conceivable way he could win the race is to actually make the lead or the top 2 in very slow fractions, like 24 and change to the quarter, and 48 and change to the half, which is very unlikely the way this field is shaping up.
Betting strategy: With the emergence of Bodemeister and Dullahan as top contenders, he is very likely to be a nice price, maybe in the range of 20-1. The reality of it is that I think his win odds should be closer to 60-1. I think he stands very little chance of catching even the slightest piece of the pie given his limited distance ability. In my book he is a complete toss from all but the smallest of my tickets.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Sunday, Bloody Sunday
The title is appropriate. It was a bloody Sunday session for me this weekend. After grinding out decent winners early in the weekend, I had high hopes for adding to it, on Sunday which is historically my best day by far. Unfortunately, the results were not good.
A great start
A fish/donkey raises to 10 UTG (he has 100 behind - have played with him a lot recently and typically he flushes 300+ per session with awful overplays/bluffs/etc.), an older woman calls, and normally I would try to isolate the fish on the button with AQs, but decided to flat this time, to try to let him make a bigger mistake if I hit the flop. A woman in the blinds called as well. Flop is Q93. Fish bets 25, old woman folds, I flat call with the hope of letting him fire a final barrel at it. I am probably calling any card on the turn, with the lone exception maybe being a King. The blind folds as well. Turn is a 9, and he shoves the rest of his chips in. I call and hold against his KJ, so up an early 120.
They love their top pair
Tattooed guy limps, there is another limper and I make it 14 on the BTN with KsJs. Tattoo calls and rest fold. Flop Ax8s3s. Tattoo donks 15, I make it 50, and he pretty quickly calls. He has 125 or so behind. Turn is a low blank. Tattoo checks, and I check behind....I've pretty much decided he is married to his hand here and not likely to fold. River blanks out, he checks, and I give up and he shows A7o. I feel really good about this hand, as I think a turn/river shove is fruitless.
Good bluff
After a few limpers, I limp 6d4d in the CO, lady on btn limps, and we see flop 6 handed. Flop Tc8d5d. Flop flush draw (gutshot straight flush draw). Checks to me, I bet 10, the button puts 10 in the pot almost in unison, making me think she thought action was on her and she was betting 10. I get 2 other calls. Turn is a 3s, making my straight draw now open ended, along with my flush draw. Checks to me, I bet 40 - the small flop bet followed by a large turn bet has been a recipe for nice profit in the past. The button quickly calls (about 125 behind), rest fold. River Ah. I debate what I think is my standard amount of time, and then declare all-in. She almost snap calls with JhTh....for flopped top pair. She claimed to be agonizing over it, but the call was literally within 10 seconds of my bet. I do like how I played this hand, but one thing to consider when discussing the hand with Ryan, is why bother even playing it, despite my great position. I need to hit the board hard, and at the same time have somebody else make 2 pair for me to get paid.
Very next hand - Hello overplay!
I have topped off my stack to $200, and I raise Kc9c to 12 in the HJ. Older guy on button calls (210 behind), and fish from first hand calls (73 behind). Flop is KQ4r. Fish donks 15, I raise to 60, and surprisingly the button calls, and then the donk calls. My plan was to iso the fish, but the button calling 60 is a huge warning sign. For some reason though, I was strongly putting him on a draw like JT. Turn is another 4, donk shoves his last 13, and based on previous action I need to just call here. Instead I shove and he snap calls with KQ. River is an A, which means I would have won with AK or AA, two of the hands I was repping. Unfortunately I didn't have those.
In hindsight, I think just calling the flop bet was the way to go. That way, I give the donk rope, and also get to learn more about the buttons hand cheaply. Basically flushed 140 there.
Very next hand - WTF!!
I again top off to $200, and limp 97o in MP after 2 limpers. No excuse for the play, but obviously steaming a little. We see a flop 7 ways, and the flop comes A97, giving me bottom two. Tattoo from the A7 hand bets 12. Folds to me and I raise to 50. Folds to Tattoo and he re-raises to 90. God it feels like he has two pair here, but hands like A9, 99, 77 and even A7 are sometimes raising from the SB, so I slightly discount those. Based on the fact that it could look like I am steaming, and his prior play with only top pair, I elect to shove, and he snaps with A9 and holds up.
This hand I am on the fence on. In an ordinary spot, I think I could simply fold this, but with my steaming/losing dynamic, I think there are a lot of players that will go to war with just an ace here. Curious to hear other thoughts on this one.
The final hand
My stack is at about 175 on my final rebuy, I have been quiet for about 30 minutes. Two limpers and I make it 14 with AA. Button (150 behind) calls, and one of the limpers calls (200 behind). Both were new players, so they don't know how I have been running/playing/steaming. Flop is Q88. When the flop came out I was watching the button and he shook his head, which I took as a huge suggestion of strength. The limper leads out for 25 now. I flat, and the button flats. Turn is a 7, limper checks, I check, and button checks (????). River is a 4. Limper bets 25, I am 100% sure I am ahead of him, but fight off the urge to raise as I am still suspicious of the button. Button now raises to 100. Limper folds, and I go into the tank. I tell him this is the most obvious 8 in the world, and he laughs saying something like "You guys were betting it for me." I mutter something about running so bad today, and then fold my aces face up. He shows me 88 for flopped quads!!! So while I feel bad about the result, I feel very good about actually making the professional play when I was steaming and laying it down to obvious defeat. I'm fairly sure I lost the absolute minimum here.
Overall a really bad session after a promising start. The cards definitely weren't co-operating. I had AA and 99 once, lost them all, and in fact I can't recall winning a single hand with a pair, though I didn't have many either. But the main problem was I got caught bluffing once, made a total overplay in the K9 hand, and then the 97 hand that I am still on the fence on.
Tuesday, April 03, 2012
Union Rags - Kentucky Derby 2012 preview
I swear that I have been thinking about this for a while, and am not just coming up with this after Union Rags defeat at the hands of Take Charge Indy in last weekend's Florida Derby, you will just have to believe me on that. As I continue the several month long process of handicapping the Kentucky Derby field, something is sticking out like a sore thumb at me....the expected Derby favorite is once again a hugely overrated horse, and I can draw several legitimate comparisons between Union Rags, and Dialed In from 2011, and Lookin at Lucky (LAL) from 2010.
Speed Figures - Kentucky Derby winners typically have to run a 105 Beyer speed figure, just to have a chance at winning the Derby. For a while it was 108, but in the last few years, these lightly raced 3 year olds have had declining figures, so I'll set 105 as my benchmark. In 2010, LAL had a highest figure of 98 entering the Derby, with a next highest figure of 91. In 2011, Dialed In had a highest figure of 97, with a next highest figure of 93. In both cases, the horses were sent off as lukewarm favorites in the Derby, and in both cases I suggested that they did not deserve favoritism.
For 2012, that highly touted horse is Union Rags, his Fountain of Youth performance was visually impressive, as he appeared to do it easily, though his figure was an unimpressive 95. I should say right up front that I'm not generally a believer in the well subscribed theory that they didn't ask him to run, so he could have run better. Some of the best performances I have ever seen from a speed figure perspective have been when a horse wasn't asked for his all and allowed to run freely. So then Union Rags followed that performance up with his 3rd place in the Florida Derby. He was gaining in the final strides, but it was more of a sustained slow gain, then of a Derby winning rally that you like to see out of a horse. For that race, he got a paltry 93 speed figure. So his last 5 races he has run a 93, 95, 94, 92 and 95 speed figure. Does that sound like a horse that will be able to uncork a 105 on the first Saturday in May? I have my doubts.
In quickly looking at the other major prep races, there are some high speed figures out of horses expected in the field, like Creative Cause (102-San Felipe), Secret Circle (102-Southwest), Daddy Nose Best (100-Sunland), El Padrino (98-Risen Star), and even Hansen (95 - BC Juevenile and Gotham).
One other factor to take into account is that Churchill Downs is the type of track that some horses handle really well and some don't. Union Rags lost the Breeders Cup Juvenile by a head in November, in what many thought was a bad performance (his speed figure was a 94). The simple truth is that he may have run the best race he is capable of running at this point.
Jockey - For this part, I will just compare 2011 to 2012, as Julien Leparoux was on Dialed In in 2011, and will be on Union Rags in 2012. For full disclosure, Leparoux is one of my least favorite riders, but I will try to remain objective for this analysis. In 2011, everyone in the world knew it was going to be a very slow pace, except for maybe Julien Leparoux. While Shackleford was cantoring through fractions of 48 and change to the half (I believe one of the slowest ever in recent Derby history), Dialed In was 20 lengths back, going through a 1/2 mile in about 52-53 seconds (his previous 3 workouts were significantly faster than that, like 48-49 seconds), so he was certainly capable of maintaining better position with the pace. So whether it was poor preparation that led to this bad bit of riding, or poor recognition of the slow pace that was developing, that is squarely on Leparoux. It's no surprise that the horses that finished 1-4 in the Derby were all in the top 6 entering the stretch, as nobody could close into those slow fractions. Dialed In was able to pass some tiring horses but only managed to finish a well beaten 8th.
Now we move on to 2012. In the Florida Derby, Leparoux gave Union Rags a dismal ride. He kept him well back of a loose on the lead Take Charge Indy, through relatively slow fractions at Gulfstream. He kept him on the rail (or was kept on the rail by another rider, depending on what you believe), allowing other horses to be outside of him and bottle him up, and did nothing to try to correct for that. If you believe you have the best horse by a lot (like the Rags connections did in the Florida Derby), you keep yourself in the clear, travelling a wider trip if necessary to keep yourself out of trouble. Leparoux failed to do that.
Type of trip - You are going to hear an awful lot in the upcoming weeks about the type of trip that Union Rags got in the Florida Derby. I agree, he didn't get a good trip, but I wouldn't call it a bad one either. He got a bad ride, no doubt, but it wasn't as if he was checked or steadied, and had to start and stop his momentum. He got in a bad spot and had to wait for an opening, and probably move later than his jock would have preferred. This is the kind of trip that may result in a 2 length difference, if that, not a huge difference as many will suggest.
Now think back to 2010, the horse in question was LAL. He had had several troubled trips, so many figured he was capable of a lot more than he had shown to that point. He also had the added issue of breaking from the 1 hole, almost ensuring traffic troubles in the 20 horse field. In order to win, Garrett Gomez was probably going to have to either run more early than he would have liked to ensure position, or drop to the back of the pack, take a wide trip, covering a lot more ground, and then run everyone down. My suggestion was that the horse wasn't good enough to overcome all of that, and I was right, as he had another troubled trip and finished 6th.
On to 2011, where Dialed In earned the favorite role when Uncle Mo was scratched. Again you had a horse with very little tactical speed, who was going to have to drop to the back of the field, then maneuver through 19 horses to the wire, in what was expected to be a very slow pace. Again, this was way too much for him to overcome, unless he was a superhorse....which I think has been proven that he wasn't.
Now we move on to 2012. It's a little difficult to anticipate the type of trip at this point in the race, since we don't yet know who the pacesetters will be, but I believe Union Rags has more tactical speed than the previous 2 favorites. But I expect Leparoux to ride quite a bit different in the Kentucky Derby than he did in the Florida Derby, which may not be a good thing. Here's some quotes from a recent DRF article about the Florida Derby.
"Michael Matz, trainer of Union Rags, said jockey Julien Leparoux likely learned a lot about Union Rags in the race, and Matz said he had no problems with the tactics employed by jockey Javier Castellano – the former rider of Union Rags – aboard El Padrino.
“Hopefully, Julien learned a lot from it. That part of it is good. The rest was disappointing. He wasn’t able to run until he got to the eighth pole. Next time, maybe he’ll let him run away from the gate a little more. You just have to view it as a good lesson. The good thing is he came out of it okay, and we have five weeks to prepare for his next race.”"
I'm reading between the lines here, but my hunch is that Leparoux has "learned" from his mistakes here, and will be very likely try to keep Union Rags on the outside and in the clear, and maybe even use a little bit more of him early to keep him in good position. This is a great idea if you are the best horse in the field, and can win in spite of any bad trip / luck that you are dealt, but as I pointed out earlier this article, he is not the best horse in the field by any objective measure that one can use. If you force him to travel more ground than other horses in this field, I don't believe he is good enough to overcome it.
Betting strategy - Am I going to throw him off of my tickets? No, I will probably treat him like I did Dialed In last year. He won't be a horse that I key on, but I will probably wheel him in several positions, in case he does live up to his potential. But I will not be surprised in the least if he fails to hit the board, and in fact, I kind of expect a 4th-6th place finish for him.
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