2026 Kentucky Derby horse preview

 

1 - Renegade

I don't think the rail is a great draw for him.  You have to be a really great horse to win from the this spot in my opinion, and his speed figures up to now do not show that.  He's definitely one you can't ignore, but a lot is going to have to go his way to avoid the wall of horses that will be in front of him.  Lost to Paladin in the Remsen, who was going to be a favorite for the Derby before injury.  His Sam F Davis performance was very business-like.  In the Arkansas Derby, he had to check a bit on the backstretch, but still closed well into a slowish pace to win going away.  

2 - Albus

For starters, the winner of the Wood Memorial has been a complete non-factor for two decades.  It always seems that Aqueduct form does not translate here.  The pace in the Wood completely collapsed, and he won with an 83 Beyer.  He would have to improve by over 20 points to win this.  Only chance is for another hot pace, and have the race collapse, and even then there are likely better closers.   

3 - Intrepido

Hasn't won since last year's American Pharoah.  This year his efforts have all been middling with Beyers in the 80's.  Had a huge workout on 4/26, but I'm not sure how to gauge that relative to his best races.  That day had some other very fast works, including Potente.  

4 - Litmus Test

5 races as 2 year old, all with progressing Beyers topping out at 96, but has not been the same horse as a 3 year old, with an 82 and a 79.    Tried rating off the pace unsuccessfully in the Arkansas Derby.  Adding blinkers for this one, I expect him to be close to the front end.  It's foolish to dismiss Baffert, and this one showed great potential 5 months ago.  I am worried the running style will make for a difficult trip unless they let him get away with Medina Spirit like fractions.  

5 - Right to Party

Late closer got up for 2nd in the aforementioned Wood Memorial, with all of his races at Aqueduct.  With a top figure of 81, he could/should be the longest shot on the board.  Barring major improvement, his only hope is for a complete pace collapse, and a massive improvement.  

6 - Commandment

It's difficult to find something bad to say about him, been winning in Florida, which has been one of the most productive races in recent years.  Has two triple digit beyers back to back, and he came widest in that race as well, into a not fast pace.  Closing at Gulfstream is always something that piques my interest.    About as close to a key horse as you can find.  If there's anything negative to say at all, it's that he got a great trip in the Fountain of Youth (and won).  

7 - Danon Bourbon

He got a great stalking trip and easy win in the Fukyru stakes, and his other two races were also easy wins.  Japan is going to get one of these soon, but I believe it takes a transcendent horse to win this (Forever Young was that horse and also fell short).  So you have to ask yourself is this horse as good as Forever Young, as that's what it will take.  

8 - So Happy

One of the toughest horses for me to handicap.  Turned in a triple digit Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby, but that race was weird when one of the favorites broke poorly changing the entire complexion of the race.  In the San Felipe, he was no match for the two runners ahead of him, and I'm also not sure if he wants the distance.  If you draw a line through the San Felipe Stakes, he is probably 10-1 or lower.  Has the ageless Mike Smith riding him, but I think I'm going to be against him.  

9 - The Puma

His Beyer speed figure progression is strong, and he's been racing on the Florida circuit.  Lost as a maiden to Chief Wallabee, but then they thought enough of him to put him into stakes company as a maiden.  In his loss in the Sam F Davis, he had a very troubled trip in between horses most of the way, and then was stopped on the final turn, and still rallied for 3rd (losing to Renegade).  After winning the Tampa Bay Derby (beating Further Ado) they could have taken an easier route, but instead chose to race in Florida against Commandment and Chief Wallabee.  He went wide in the Florida Derby and barely was beaten by Commandment, he went wide in the Tampa Bay Derby on both turns and won.  The question is will he stay the distance.  Likely my pick.    

10 - Wonder Dean

The winner of the UAE Derby has never hit the board, so consider that when making a decision on him.  He ran down Six Speed loose on lead in UAE, but didn't look great to me finishing the race.  He has been at Churchill for over a month training and getting accustomed to the track.  

11 - Incredibolt

Probably the toughest horse for me to make a decision on.  The Virginia Derby is a weird race (1 turn mile) - last years winner did nothing in the Derby and Preakness.  He did make a big move in the Virginia Derby to win, and he also has two wins at Churchill, including the Street Sense Stakes.  He had no excuse in the Holy Bull Stakes, maybe he didn't like the rail.  I'm thinking I play him very sparingly.  

12 - Chief Wallabee

I've been on him since his maiden win.  He had a huge workout 4/20 at Churchill.  In the Fountain of Youth, he went much wider than Commandment did, and couldn't get by him.  In the Florida Derby, he couldn't get by The Puma or Commandment.  I'm also not huge on the switch to blinkers, I'm afraid of him going too fast too soon.  That being said, his last two Beyers are 99 and 100.  Impossible to ignore, but I also don't fully trust him.  

13 - Silent Tactic

He always seems to give a decent run, and seems an obvious choice to hit the board in the Superfecta.  He also seems like his only chance of winning is with a super hot pace, as his top speed figure is 91.  He exploded in Southwest Stakes (lugged in a bit in the late stretch).  Slow pace in Smarty Jones, but closed wide.  No match for winner but winner had a perfect trip.  He made a decent run in the Arkansas Derby, but was no match for Renegade.  

14 - Potente

It's not wise to ever count Bob Baffert out, especially after Potente had a huge workout on 4/26.  In the San Felipe, he closed and barely got there past 60-1 Robusta.  In the Santa Anita Derby, he broke well and found himself on the lead on the rail when another horse broke poorly, but was no match for So Happy.  I would expect him to be nowhere near the lead as Baffert's other horse, Litmus Test, will likely be forwardly placed.  His speed figure progression is strong too, he might be my longshot play.  

  

15 - Emerging Market

He is very lightly raced, with two lifetime races, with Beyer speed figures of 97 and 90.  Many believe two races is not enough of a foundation for the rigor of a 20 horse field in the Derby.  In the Louisiana Derby he barely got up for the win over Pavlovian.  All that being said, he will probably get a good trip from the outside, and Candy Ride is a top sire.  If he moves forward at all, he's a top threat.  

16 - Pavlovian

He's a real fighter, as both of his last two races were nail biters.  He won Sunland Derby in a head-bob, chasing the  favorite from two spot all the way around.  He was the early leader in Louisiana Derby, and didn't quit.  His speed figures of 90 and 87, along with how he was all out in his last two races tell me there may not be more in reserve.  

17 - Six Speed

As mentioned above, the winner of the UAE Derby has never hit the board, nor has the 2nd place finisher.  He was the early speed in UAE, and was clear by a lot having it his own way.  I don't expect that to happen in Louisville, and would expect him to finish in the bottom half of the field.  The 17 hole has never won the Derby, and that record will still be safe.  

18 - Further Ado

Highest Beyer in the field at 106, but he has freaked out a few times at Keeneland.  Can he race like that anywhere else?  His Blue Grass was huge.  In the Tampa Bay Derby, he was in a great spot but got outrun by the Puma.  In the Kentucky Jockey Club Cup at Churchill, he was wide at the start, and wide on the turn but still managed to win.   You would be foolish to ignore, but I like others more.  

19 - Golden Tempo

He is very similar to Silent Tactic, in that he always makes a run, but often leaves himself too much ground to makeup.  He was in last entering far turn in LeComte, and rallied up the inside to win.  He was way back entering far turn of Risen Star and made a strong run, but left himself way too much to do.  He closed decent in the Louisiana Derby for 3rd, but was never a threat for the win.  His speed figures of 88-84-81 also tell me he needs to improve a ton to be a win contender.  He's one that can build the Superfecta payout up, but that may be his ceiling.  

20 - Fulleffort

The question is how will he take to the dirt?  He nearly got there in the Battaglia despite being very wide - looked like a Derby move.  Then he ran by everyone in the Jeff Ruby.  These races at Turfway have been pretty legit for performing in the Derby - his figures probably point to 3rd-4th, as his last Beyer was 93.  His connections weren't thrilled with the outside draw, and he's likely to be wide all the way around the track unless he finds a Rich Strike route.  

21 - Great White

The 2nd horse (potentially) in this field going the Turfway route.  The difference between him and Fulleffort, is that we have seen one dirt race from this one and it wasn’t great, beaten 22 lengths by Further Ado.  His running style will force him to use a lot of energy to get near the front, and he will likely be outside of a number of horses.  I think he's a total pass for me.  

22 - Ocelli

He's still a maiden, and has faced 5 horses in the Derby field in his last 3 races, and finished ahead of none of them.  His best speed figure is an 81 in a suspect Wood Memorial when everything was setup for a closer like him.  It would take a huge improvement from him, and a huge pace letdown from everyone in front of him.  I could see playing him in 4th….maybe, and just maybe on a pace collapse closer only ticket.  

23 - Robusta

Doug O'Neill has won this twice, but both times he had a horse that looked really strong.  This one has one speed figure that is above 80 (89).  In that best race, he stalked the pace but was beaten by Potente.   He has raced Potente, So Happy and Interpido multiple times and has only beaten one of them (So Happy) once.  His running style is also forwardly placed, and unlikely to get a great trip.  He probably will not be on the lead, there are stalkers better than him, and then there are a host of strong closers in the field.  Pass for me.  

24 - Corona de Oro

Seems extremely unlikely to draw into the field.  He has some decent speed figures, topping out at 92 in January.  But his running style is to be on the front end, and I don't believe he is as fast as a few others in this field.  In the Lexington he was passed by two horses and didn't quit, so I could see a scenario where he is able to get a decent trip and be about 2-3 wide entering the first turn, and maybe hang on for 3rd-4th.  Mostly I'm thinking I would ignore him though should he draw in.  

2013 Poker Year in Review

As we near the end of 2013, I thought it was a good time to take stock of my poker play, look for trends, and develop some goals for next year.  Also I will look at my goals from last year, and see how badly I failed at them.

For reference,  here is my end of 2012 post.  

2013 began with what is becoming my annual swoon in Vegas.  I was down nearly 1K after my first 3 sessions.  One of those sessions were 2/5 at Bellagio, where I felt that I played very well, but ran into one particularly difficult spot.  That hand is detailed here.

I made a recovery in a big 5 hour session at Planet Hollywood on the last night of my trip to end the trip a slight loser, and a subsequent session at Northville Downs left me a very slight winner for the month of January.  The session at Planet Hollywood was one where I played like a maniac, and ran over the table, and also made a few big hands vs 2nd best hands.

February saw me play 3 sessions, all winners, including my only 4 digit winner of the year.  The details of that session are chronicled here.

March saw me play in the MSPT event that occurred at Firekeepers in Battle Creek.  Overall I played poorly in the tournament, I guess my tournament game can get a little rusty after 3+ years of almost all cash play (save for like 4 tournaments).  The brief details of that trip are here. 

Following that came a 7 month dry spell, both in terms of quality of play, run bad, and amount of play.  During those 7 months I played a total of 18 sessions, encompassing all of 59 hours.  During that time I'm sure that I played sub-optimally, but I ran horribly.  My cryptic notes from those sessions included these gems:  Lost $400 pot with AA to QJ got 140 in on turn on Q632 board, Lost AA v KK got it in on JJ8xhh flop, Chopped KQ v QJ on Q62 board, Lost set over set on 1st hand.  Running bad in the short term can be real frustrating at times like this, when you aren't getting in anywhere near the amount of volume to reach the long term.

During that stretch, most of my free time was blocked off by family obligations (coaching softball for 9 year old daughter, 8 month old daughter), and playing golf and on my softball team when possible.

I did manage to get in my 2nd ever trip to Foxwoods in July during a family vacation, this one culminating in a small winner in a 3 hour session.

Finally, in November and December, I was able to put together some more time at the tables, as the weather turned colder.  It was a break even month until me and the wife took a vacation to Traverse City, and the first night I had nearly a 4 figure session at Turtle Creek.  Disappointingly I followed that up by losing a couple of buy-ins the next night.  The good news was that my wife managed to win $150ish playing both nights as well, so a good time was had by all.

In December I played 6 sessions, all at Northville Downs, and all winners, making in excess of $70/hr for that time.  During that time I still suffered 2 ridiculous beats, but I also got AA what seemed like an inordinate amount of times, winning some big pots with it.

2013 results charts are shown below:

Profit vs hours

Profit vs date

Also, below you can see the graph of hours played by month.

I've found when I analyze my play, it helps to parse my results by a lot of different categories.

Different limits:

The first thing to look at is my results at different limits.  For the year I played mostly 1/2, and a smattering of 1/3 and 2/5.  Below are the results.

1/2:  $26/hr for the year.  (In 2012 I was at $25/hr, in 2011 I was at $30/hr)  

1/3:  I played one 2 hour session where I got beat for a buy-in.  Still not even worth looking at as I only have 19 hours in 3 years

2/5:  -$87/hr (in 1 nearly 7 hours session, I never played again for the year) 

Different rooms: 

My play has been primarily spent at Northville Downs, with the rest of the hours being in a smattering of other rooms.

Northville Downs (53.4% of my play): $45/hr ($31/hr in 2012, $28/hr in 2011)

Docs (19.1% of my play):  -$48/hr ($34/hr in 2012, $58.hr in 2011)

I played less than 10 hours for the year in all other rooms.  

Session length:  

This one doesn't mean a lot.  The only thing I really take from it is that I only played 2 marathon (more than 8 hours) sessions all year.  

Less than 2 hours (25.0% of sessions):  -$1/hr

2-4 hrs (31.3%):  $15/hr

4-6 hours (27.1%):  $20/hr

6-8 hours (12.5%):  $50/hr

8+ hours (4.1%):  -$13/hr

2012 Goals (review): 

Half of the goals will be evaluated subjectively, but unfortunately that is the nature of the beast when dealing with some of the goals that I put together.

Goal #1:  Play 200 hours in 2013.:  I need to average 17 hours per month, which is hopefully doable, as the baby gets older.  The winter should allow me to get a head start as I don't have any responsibilities such as softball or coaching Abby's teams taking up my time, and I also don't have golf competing for my free time for the first few months of the year.

I fell just short of this goal, putting in 185 hours.  This is mostly due to it being a very busy summer, and between April and October I averaged slightly more than 8 hours per MONTH.  

Goal #2:  Play 40 hours of 2/5 or higher in 2013.  This should be a doable, as long as I am smart about bankroll, don't run awful, and make sure to visit rooms that have this limit available.

I fell WAY short of this one.  I only played 1 session, that was back in January, and I never went downtown to Motor City Casino, the only place in the area where 2/5 is consistently offered.  A key contributor to this is that I went on a considerable downswing between April and August, which not only affected my bankroll, but my desire to play as well.    

Goal #3:  Continue to find profitable spots to 3 bet.  I wrote an article on it in 2+2 magazine, which was generally well received.  Players tend to hate it, and don't properly combat it, and just generally allow themselves to be walked all over.

I still look for this every session, but most of the games I play in aren't conducive to 3 betting light, primarily due to the fact that people aren't playing deep stacked enough.  It's definitely still an area I focus on.

Goal #4:  Continue to find ways to exploit my position.  This is kind of related to #3, in that I want to generally 3 bet in position.  But I believe my goal should be to make the player or 2 directly to my right very uncomfortable.  If I am not doing that, I am not doing my job well enough.

I really started doing this more at the end of the year, and plan on focusing more and more on it in the coming months.  It's very tough to hit a flop, and I plan on playing back at more players, especially TAG's as the cards and situation dictate it.  

Goal #5:   Once I get a big stack, aggressively target other big stacks.  This is one where I feel I could definitely improve.  I try to be keenly aware of all stack sizes at the table, and am especially aware of my potential exposure every time I play a hand.  What I need to do though is to exploit players who are also aware of their exposure, especially ones who are fearful of playing deep.

Probably a fail, I don't think I was able to play enough deep stacked to really follow through on this one.  

Goal #6:  I had one article published in 2012 (Low Stakes Live Light 3 Betting) which was published by 2+2 internet magazine, and that I was compensated for.  The article remains on the site for 6 months, and is no longer available there.  I'm going to start small this year and set a modest goal of 2 articles for 2013.

Definitely a fail.  I have started articles on 5 topics, but just never had the time, desire and patience to finish them up to my standards.  

2013 Goals: 

Hopefully in 12 months time I will be able to re-examine this post to see how I did about attaining my goals.

Goal #1:  Play 200 hours in 2014.:  This is a repeat from 2013 that I am going to try to make.  I do have my 3rd child on the way in July, which is going to make this goal even more difficult to attain, so the goal will be to get a lot of time in during the first 5-6 months of the year.

Goal #2:  Play 25 hours of 2/5 or higher in 2013.  Also a repeat goal, but reduced in hours from last years goal.  Hopefully a hot start in the month of January can kickstart this one.

Goal #3:  I feel like I do very well playing against LAG's, but I have identified playing TAG's as a potentially weak spot in my game, and am going to try to focus on attacking them.  I just finished reading Playing the Player by Ed Miller, which is an excellent book, and one I would recommend any advanced player to pick up.

Goal #4:  Similar to goal #6 last year, I would like to have at least 1 strategy article published in 2014.

Lifetime stats:
1/2:  $28/hr  (nearly 1000 hours)
1/3:  -$22/hr (less than 20 hours)
2/5:  -$53/hr (less than 40 hours)

Northville Downs:  $35/hr  (500 hrs)
Docs:  $16/hr  (100+ hrs)
Vegas casinos:  -$20/hr  (less than 100 hours)
Detroit casinos:  -$4/hr  (50 hours)
Other casinos:  $45/hr  (50 hours)