I set a personal record for profit at 1/2 at Northville on Sunday, 11/27. I played for only 5 hours and 15 minutes, and turned a profit of 1002. It was a combination of playing well, and running phenominally. I would say that I was able to extract the max out of my good hands in this session.
Quick start
Playing 6-7 handed, I open in CO for 8 with 77, and tight middle aged guy (I actually saw him flat the turn and the river with the nuts) calls on button. Flop K87. I cbet 15, and he calls. Turn 10, I bet 30 and he calls. River K, I bet 60 and he calls, and MHIG. I didn't see what he had, but I am guessing it is trip K's.
Luckbox
There is a button straddle, and after 1 call, I raise to 25 with AdQh. Guy after me with a bit over 100 in his stack smooth calls (he's a guy that I really hate from an incident I had with him at Doc's when he was all-in, and I was taking my time in the same pot trying to determine if I was going to call on the river after a bet into the sidepot, where he called the clock on me). I remember thinking that he had a really strong hand there to just call. One of the blinds calls and the pot is 80. Flop is Tc6x2c. Blind checks, I cbet 40 (totally forgetting/ignoring my earlier read), smooth caller shoves for 80, blind folds and I feel I am priced in and call. Turn Jc, river K and he rolls over KK, I roll over runner runner broadway. He actually takes it remarkably well.
The roll ends
I have just picked off a few bluffs, and I am about +500. I pick up QsQx in the BB, and after about 4-5 limpers, I raise to 15. I get 3 callers, however at the time I only thought there were 2 callers. Flop is Ts4s2s. I actually look back at my cards and say "Just have to do a spade check", and then bet 25. One player folds, and then the fat thinking regular (FTR), raises to 75, with 175 back. Folds to me. I think he has a lot of semi-bluffs in his range here, especially considering my un-intentional small bet may have induced a raise, and I decide to shove. He calls fairly quickly, asking if I flopped a flush. Obviously he did and he turns over 8s5s. Turn is a red K, and the river is the Jc, giving me a quick tease, since it looked like the spade, and I lose a big pot.
The very next hand
Suddenly I am only up about 250-300, and thinking about leaving and locking in a winner. Aggressive young kid (AYK) raises in EP to 12. For a stretch he was sitting 2 to my right, and was opening a lot of pots, forcing me to alter my game. I don't think I 3 bet him any in that stretch, as a good opportunity didn't seem to present itself. He moved about 4 seats to my left after I got some chips, not sure if that was a coincidence or not. FTR is still stacking chips and calls the 12. Fold to me in the SB and I have QQ again. I elect to 3 bet to 48. Young spewy regular (YSR) cold-calls with about 150 behind. AYK calls (425 behind), and FTR calls (500 behind). I cover all.
Pot is about 190 and the flop is Q42r. I decide to check, with the hope that one of them will stab at the pot, but it gets checked around. Turn is another 4, and my plan was to bet the turn, but now that I am full I elect to check again. Checked to AYK, and he bets 99. FTR thinks for a bit and looks pained, finally he says "oh man" and then folds. I ask AYK how much he has behind, though I know exactly, as a plan is starting to formulate in my head. He has 325, and I decide to almost min-raise it to 200, hoping to give him the impression that I am messing around, and he has some fold equity. YSR folds, and then AYK thinks for about 30 seconds, and then says "All-in". I snap and he says "Do you have queens?" I say yes and roll them over and he mucks his cards before the river is even dealt. Good thing he didn't have KK as the inconsequential river is a K.
I don't think I get his stack taking a conventional bet 80 on flop, bet turn, shove river line, though I could be wrong. Obviously I got the max.
Running good
Now I am just running over the table. LP player (playing about 250) raises to 7, I flat with 88 in the CO, button calls (100 behind). Flop is 7s5s2x. LP bets 10. I raise to 35, button calls the 35, LP folds. Turn is Qx. I shove, button says "Let's gamble", and calls with AsKs. River bricks and I pick up the pot.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Friday, October 21, 2011
3 days 3 rooms
I spent the weekend playing 3 different rooms, and thought I would report on a few hands, as well as some of the differences in the rooms.
Thursday
I decided to head to Doc's Sports Retreat, mostly because I wanted to watch the afternoon game 5 of the Tigers/Rangers series, and the environment is much more conducive to watch sports here, than my usual hangout of Northville Downs.
As usual I called ahead, and when I arrived in the room, there was only 1 table going, but I was at the top of the list. After 15 minutes of waiting, I got called to the game, and a few minutes after that, a second table got started (and eventually a 3rd got going around 7pm).
This is going to be a gross generalization, but the people at Doc's are some of the most unlikable I have run into. Many are easily agitated, shout at other players, angle shoot, and in general act like major league douchebags. Many of the examples can be attributed to a few certain regular players, so they may not be representative of the player pool as a whole. For example, there is a line on the felt that looks exactly like a betting line, however, it doesn't function as a betting line. Therefore, players can in one forward motion reach out a handful of red $5 chips, and in the end merely call a $5 bet by just releasing 1 chip. More than one time, I saw a player make sure to get the attention of the dealer and say "call" to the $2 pre-flop blind, and then following that lay out 7-10 red chips. I don't think he was playing an angle in this case, but I'm sure this is something he has done dozens of times if not more, and he must think it is really cute.
On to one very interesting hand that I played, that will certainly out me if you were at the table as it was pretty memorable. Regular from the previous paragraph straddles UTG for 5. I pick up As8s in MP and raise to 25. There were two players I believed were likely to call, the SB (had a stack of 800+ when I got there, has since dwindled down to 300, making several crazy bluffs, where he was beaten by dubious final hands), and the UTG. Ordinarily, I may muck this hand, or limp, but believing I would have position led me to opening, though it's not necessarily such a good play. As expected, both of them call. Flop is 5s5x3s. Both players check, and I bet 45 (I have 250 when the hand started and both players cover). SB almost immediately says "All-in", but doesn't move his chips to the pot. UTG apparently doesn't realize this and puts out a stack of 125, with the intention to raise. When informed of the action, he looks troubled and eventually folds.
At this point I am leaning towards a call. I have his range at this point on almost any two cards, as well as spade semi-bluffs. Of course this range includes some 5's, but it also includes almost every other random hand in the book. I am about 90% for sure calling for my last 175, and he starts talking to me, saying "You can't fold now." I start to think it's a reverse tell, and I say "You're right, I can't fold.", and push my chips in the middle. He say's "Bluff, good call." I tell him that I'm not very strong. The board runs out 4x5x, and I can tell he doesn't want to show. I know I am good and roll my cards over and he mucks, and my ace high takes down the pot of $550, which is a huge surprise to the entire table. This kind of a call/read also tends to put players on notice to not mess with me, since I am willing to call down light.
After having a few beers (Happy Hour, $2.75 for a tall Sam Adams), I decide to rack up and spend time with the wife. In the end I made over 300 in a 3+ hour session.
The room in general is nice. A bit small and cramped, but you get to watch most major sporting events on a large screen, there are good beer specials, and they take care of the players. During the time I was there they brought out free spinach dip, free pizza on 2 separate occasions, sliders, and chicken wings. Dealers are decent, though a bit too chummy with the regulars. The main downside to me of the room is that you sometimes have to wait a while to get a seat, as they are limited to 3 games, and most of the time only have 1-2 going. This is despite me calling ahead 100% of the time.
Friday
With the day off on Friday, I headed over to Northville Downs. The primary reason was that in addition to playing, I also wanted to bet on some horses. The place was very crowded for 12:30pm on a Friday, with 2 games already running and a full list for a 3rd game. They had to wait for another dealer to arrive at 1pm before the 3rd game started. The mix of players was your standard mix, maybe even easier than normal. I had good control over the table, opening more than my fair share of pots, and taking pots down without a showdown.
The day got off to a good start when I played a very big hand within the first orbit. After 2 limps (weak player, and a tight passive regular - TPR), I raised to 12 with JdTd. The really bad player after me called (playing $85-$90), , weak player called and the TPR (playing $140) called as well. Flop was 9d8d8x. I bet 35, the bad player called, and TPR called. Turn was a 3x. Check to me, I check (could/should have bet here), weak player shoved for 40ish. TPR calls, and I call. River is a Qx, giving me the nut straight. TPR checks, I shove and he quickly calls his last 50ish showing AdQd. I take the pot as the bad player had A8.
Unfortunately, that was my high point. I doubled up the TPR when I raised a few limpers with 9h8h. Flop came 3 ways KxJh3h. Both players were playing $100 deep, so I decided to check behind after being checked to, since I didn't feel I was getting any folds. Turn was a 6h, filling my flush. Check to me again and I bet 30. Both the weak player and TPR called. River was a blank. Weak player checked, and TPR shoved for 50ish. I called, knowing there was a chance I was beaten, weak player folded and TPR showed KhTh.
The room in general is a lot like people have described in this thread. It is dark, a bit seedy feeling, and during the horse racing season, there are a TON of flies. They try to manage it by putting fly tape up, but when it was warm in September, it was unmanageable. They do have free WIFI now, which is a nice touch for those that like to play on their phones a lot (me). The food is meh at best, and the beer selection is non-existent (Bud and Bud Light). Friday and Saturday's during horse racing season are crazy busy, since they have live racing on those nights. You get a ton of players who love to bet horses trying their luck at cards.
The people in general are pleasant. I am a semi-regular in the room, so most people know me, even if they don't know me by name. There was some arguing at my table between two guys who weren't willing to back down, but that generally is atypical of the normal day there. Due to its proximity to my house (in Milford), the horse racing, the bad players, and my general comfort with the area, it's my go-to room and has gotten probably 90% of my play in the past year.
Saturday
My buddy sold me one of his extra MSU/UM tickets. I am an MSU alum, so I am familiar with the area. I arrived to tailgate at about 8am, and pretty much attacked the alcohol until gametime. It was a fun game, albeit sloppy with the wind. At least the right team won, again...... and I won a few hundred in side bets on the game.
After the game, I knew I wouldn't be able to get out of the parking garage in good order, so I decided to walk the total opposite direction to Trippers, as I knew the poker room was affiliated with Northville Downs. On the way to the room, I found the call ahead number and called them 5-10 minutes before I arrived. When I got there, there were 2 tables going, and 4-5 players on the list for a 3rd game. I asked them if they were going to start another game, and they said "Not until we get 3 more players." ??? So I sat down and watched football. I haven't been to Trippers since I was in college, which was in the late 90's, so I don't remember the layout that well. The room is in an area that looked like it used to be a billiards area. There are a lot of large projection TV's, as well as smaller TV's to watch football/sports. They also have a full kitchen since they are a restaurant. I can't speak to the beer prices as I was trying to finish sobering up. I ordered cheese bread while I was playing, and it was decent but not great.
It took nearly 30 minutes for them to start a new game, which was frustrating. I bought in for the $200 max, but when scanning the table, only one other player bought in for more than $100. It was basically a short stack fest. Combine that with my earlier drinking, my desire to get something going quickly (knowing I had a 2.1 mile walk back to my car, as well as wanting to get back to watch the Tigers game that night), and you had a recipe for impatience. I started playing like a super LAG, and for the most part it was working. I had chipped up about $50, when my turning point hand came up. A few limps, and I raised to 15 with AJs. Folds around to the player right before me, who shoved for $75. I didn't feel he would limp a big hand behind other limpers, despite my aggression to that point, so I decided to call. The board ran out 5 cards between 4 and T, and he turned over 33 to drag the pot.
After that point, I failed to adjust, and continued to hammer away at the table. The table started adjusting to me though, and they kept making hands just marginally better than me. By the time I had had enough, I was down about a buy-in, and decided that it would like squeezing grapefruit's to get that money back.
By contrast to Doc's though, the players were all total sweethearts, and not very good at poker. If I had the patience that day, I'm sure it could have been a profitable session, but I quite frankly played impatient and bad for the table environment. It was a session I probably shouldn't even have played for my mindset. The disappointing factor was how many short stackers there were, and it seemed to be the norm. In the 2+ hours I played, several people came and went, but none of the new players ever came with a full stack.
One interesting feature of the room is that the tables are apparently smaller (I didn't measure). They only played 8 handed max at all of their tables, and made it seem that this was normal. I tend to enjoy short handed more, so it wasn't a problem for me. But I can see your normal live player having a fit when 2-3 seats are open at a time. Overall, a decent room, but I would like to get a larger sample size to see if the short stacking was just a phenomenon I experienced, or is the norm there.
Thursday
I decided to head to Doc's Sports Retreat, mostly because I wanted to watch the afternoon game 5 of the Tigers/Rangers series, and the environment is much more conducive to watch sports here, than my usual hangout of Northville Downs.
As usual I called ahead, and when I arrived in the room, there was only 1 table going, but I was at the top of the list. After 15 minutes of waiting, I got called to the game, and a few minutes after that, a second table got started (and eventually a 3rd got going around 7pm).
This is going to be a gross generalization, but the people at Doc's are some of the most unlikable I have run into. Many are easily agitated, shout at other players, angle shoot, and in general act like major league douchebags. Many of the examples can be attributed to a few certain regular players, so they may not be representative of the player pool as a whole. For example, there is a line on the felt that looks exactly like a betting line, however, it doesn't function as a betting line. Therefore, players can in one forward motion reach out a handful of red $5 chips, and in the end merely call a $5 bet by just releasing 1 chip. More than one time, I saw a player make sure to get the attention of the dealer and say "call" to the $2 pre-flop blind, and then following that lay out 7-10 red chips. I don't think he was playing an angle in this case, but I'm sure this is something he has done dozens of times if not more, and he must think it is really cute.
On to one very interesting hand that I played, that will certainly out me if you were at the table as it was pretty memorable. Regular from the previous paragraph straddles UTG for 5. I pick up As8s in MP and raise to 25. There were two players I believed were likely to call, the SB (had a stack of 800+ when I got there, has since dwindled down to 300, making several crazy bluffs, where he was beaten by dubious final hands), and the UTG. Ordinarily, I may muck this hand, or limp, but believing I would have position led me to opening, though it's not necessarily such a good play. As expected, both of them call. Flop is 5s5x3s. Both players check, and I bet 45 (I have 250 when the hand started and both players cover). SB almost immediately says "All-in", but doesn't move his chips to the pot. UTG apparently doesn't realize this and puts out a stack of 125, with the intention to raise. When informed of the action, he looks troubled and eventually folds.
At this point I am leaning towards a call. I have his range at this point on almost any two cards, as well as spade semi-bluffs. Of course this range includes some 5's, but it also includes almost every other random hand in the book. I am about 90% for sure calling for my last 175, and he starts talking to me, saying "You can't fold now." I start to think it's a reverse tell, and I say "You're right, I can't fold.", and push my chips in the middle. He say's "Bluff, good call." I tell him that I'm not very strong. The board runs out 4x5x, and I can tell he doesn't want to show. I know I am good and roll my cards over and he mucks, and my ace high takes down the pot of $550, which is a huge surprise to the entire table. This kind of a call/read also tends to put players on notice to not mess with me, since I am willing to call down light.
After having a few beers (Happy Hour, $2.75 for a tall Sam Adams), I decide to rack up and spend time with the wife. In the end I made over 300 in a 3+ hour session.
The room in general is nice. A bit small and cramped, but you get to watch most major sporting events on a large screen, there are good beer specials, and they take care of the players. During the time I was there they brought out free spinach dip, free pizza on 2 separate occasions, sliders, and chicken wings. Dealers are decent, though a bit too chummy with the regulars. The main downside to me of the room is that you sometimes have to wait a while to get a seat, as they are limited to 3 games, and most of the time only have 1-2 going. This is despite me calling ahead 100% of the time.
Friday
With the day off on Friday, I headed over to Northville Downs. The primary reason was that in addition to playing, I also wanted to bet on some horses. The place was very crowded for 12:30pm on a Friday, with 2 games already running and a full list for a 3rd game. They had to wait for another dealer to arrive at 1pm before the 3rd game started. The mix of players was your standard mix, maybe even easier than normal. I had good control over the table, opening more than my fair share of pots, and taking pots down without a showdown.
The day got off to a good start when I played a very big hand within the first orbit. After 2 limps (weak player, and a tight passive regular - TPR), I raised to 12 with JdTd. The really bad player after me called (playing $85-$90), , weak player called and the TPR (playing $140) called as well. Flop was 9d8d8x. I bet 35, the bad player called, and TPR called. Turn was a 3x. Check to me, I check (could/should have bet here), weak player shoved for 40ish. TPR calls, and I call. River is a Qx, giving me the nut straight. TPR checks, I shove and he quickly calls his last 50ish showing AdQd. I take the pot as the bad player had A8.
Unfortunately, that was my high point. I doubled up the TPR when I raised a few limpers with 9h8h. Flop came 3 ways KxJh3h. Both players were playing $100 deep, so I decided to check behind after being checked to, since I didn't feel I was getting any folds. Turn was a 6h, filling my flush. Check to me again and I bet 30. Both the weak player and TPR called. River was a blank. Weak player checked, and TPR shoved for 50ish. I called, knowing there was a chance I was beaten, weak player folded and TPR showed KhTh.
The room in general is a lot like people have described in this thread. It is dark, a bit seedy feeling, and during the horse racing season, there are a TON of flies. They try to manage it by putting fly tape up, but when it was warm in September, it was unmanageable. They do have free WIFI now, which is a nice touch for those that like to play on their phones a lot (me). The food is meh at best, and the beer selection is non-existent (Bud and Bud Light). Friday and Saturday's during horse racing season are crazy busy, since they have live racing on those nights. You get a ton of players who love to bet horses trying their luck at cards.
The people in general are pleasant. I am a semi-regular in the room, so most people know me, even if they don't know me by name. There was some arguing at my table between two guys who weren't willing to back down, but that generally is atypical of the normal day there. Due to its proximity to my house (in Milford), the horse racing, the bad players, and my general comfort with the area, it's my go-to room and has gotten probably 90% of my play in the past year.
Saturday
My buddy sold me one of his extra MSU/UM tickets. I am an MSU alum, so I am familiar with the area. I arrived to tailgate at about 8am, and pretty much attacked the alcohol until gametime. It was a fun game, albeit sloppy with the wind. At least the right team won, again...... and I won a few hundred in side bets on the game.
After the game, I knew I wouldn't be able to get out of the parking garage in good order, so I decided to walk the total opposite direction to Trippers, as I knew the poker room was affiliated with Northville Downs. On the way to the room, I found the call ahead number and called them 5-10 minutes before I arrived. When I got there, there were 2 tables going, and 4-5 players on the list for a 3rd game. I asked them if they were going to start another game, and they said "Not until we get 3 more players." ??? So I sat down and watched football. I haven't been to Trippers since I was in college, which was in the late 90's, so I don't remember the layout that well. The room is in an area that looked like it used to be a billiards area. There are a lot of large projection TV's, as well as smaller TV's to watch football/sports. They also have a full kitchen since they are a restaurant. I can't speak to the beer prices as I was trying to finish sobering up. I ordered cheese bread while I was playing, and it was decent but not great.
It took nearly 30 minutes for them to start a new game, which was frustrating. I bought in for the $200 max, but when scanning the table, only one other player bought in for more than $100. It was basically a short stack fest. Combine that with my earlier drinking, my desire to get something going quickly (knowing I had a 2.1 mile walk back to my car, as well as wanting to get back to watch the Tigers game that night), and you had a recipe for impatience. I started playing like a super LAG, and for the most part it was working. I had chipped up about $50, when my turning point hand came up. A few limps, and I raised to 15 with AJs. Folds around to the player right before me, who shoved for $75. I didn't feel he would limp a big hand behind other limpers, despite my aggression to that point, so I decided to call. The board ran out 5 cards between 4 and T, and he turned over 33 to drag the pot.
After that point, I failed to adjust, and continued to hammer away at the table. The table started adjusting to me though, and they kept making hands just marginally better than me. By the time I had had enough, I was down about a buy-in, and decided that it would like squeezing grapefruit's to get that money back.
By contrast to Doc's though, the players were all total sweethearts, and not very good at poker. If I had the patience that day, I'm sure it could have been a profitable session, but I quite frankly played impatient and bad for the table environment. It was a session I probably shouldn't even have played for my mindset. The disappointing factor was how many short stackers there were, and it seemed to be the norm. In the 2+ hours I played, several people came and went, but none of the new players ever came with a full stack.
One interesting feature of the room is that the tables are apparently smaller (I didn't measure). They only played 8 handed max at all of their tables, and made it seem that this was normal. I tend to enjoy short handed more, so it wasn't a problem for me. But I can see your normal live player having a fit when 2-3 seats are open at a time. Overall, a decent room, but I would like to get a larger sample size to see if the short stacking was just a phenomenon I experienced, or is the norm there.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Roller coaster session
I played a roller coaster session at Northville Downs yesterday, one in which I misplayed/mangled a few hands, and also played a few hands fairly well.
Elementary Fold
After about 1 orbit or so of folding, I pick up JJ in EP. The pot is straddled by the button to 5, one of the blinds call, and I raise to 25. Player after me calls (125 behind), next player (stack of about 400) raises to 110, player immediately after him shoves for 145. Fold to me, I fold, the first caller goes all-in for his 125. The hands are AA out of the first caller, KK out of the guy that made it 110, and unknown out of the shover. The board runs out QQ9KJ, and the kings take down a monster.
Interesting hand I wasn't involved in
An EP player raised to 12, and got 4 callers. The raiser was playing with a big stack, but effective stacks for the hand was 200. Flop came K22, and the raiser bet 35, getting called by a female regular who plays decent, if not a bit station-y. The turn was a 6, putting 2 clubs on board, and the PF raiser checks, and the woman bets 50, leaving about 125 behind. The PF raiser quickly says all-in. After a very brief consideration, she calls. The river is a blank, and the PF raiser is hesitant to flip his cards. She tables 99 and he mucks.
I thought he did a credible job of repping AK, AA or KK there, but apparently she didn't. She seemed to think that betting a K would have been odd on that flop, which I disagree with, at least in regards to my game.
Weak-tight
This was the first hand that I think I really misplayed. UTG (66 total) raises to 14, UTG+3 (stack of about 900, very aggressive opening in the last orbit, but he has shown down AK twice and KK once, so he may just be running hot) 3-bets to 46. I have QcQs on the button, with 240 behind. I am not sure what to do, as I think stack sizes are awkward to both call, and to shove. I think folding is actually fine here, though I decide to just call. UTG shoves his 66, and UTG+3 calls (I'm not sure if he could have re-raised here, I forget the rule there, but him not asking made me feel a little more re-assured). I decided to just call, as I didn't want to ask and tip the strength of my hand any more than I already had.
Flop was K76, and UTG+3 checked to me, I elected to check behind, as I had seen him check the flop with strong hands up to this point and then bet the turn. The turn was a 9, and he led 60. I was really leaning towards a call, but the fact that there was no side pot led me into a fold. He had TT, while UTG had KQ, so had I 4 bet shoved pre-flop, I would have likely taken the whole pot, unless UTG was totally steaming and decided to go for it.
Missed opportunity
Another one that I misplayed. Same player from above hand raised to 12, and I 3 bet in position on the button to 36 with QsQc again, and he flatted. Flop was Q64. He checked, and I should have checked, as I think he would have bet any turn. Instead I bet 45, and he folded.
Getting cute
A few limpers to the CO who raises to 10. He has just lost a buyin, but doesn't seem to be steaming. He does seem like the kind that could overplay a hand and pay me off. I'm in the SB with 8s7s and elect to call, even though this is probably an elementary fold, given my position, as well as my relative position to the raiser. But, given the limpers I can see this being 4-5 ways to the flop, so that was my thinking going in. As expected, 3 players call and we see the flop 5 handed. While the calling was all going on, I decided if I flopped a draw, I would lead out with it, in an attempt to trap the 3 players between me and the PF raiser.
Flop was Ts5x4s. As planned, I make a weak lead of 25 into a pot of 50. Unfortunately all fold to the PF raiser who calls. The turn is a 2x. I follow through and bet 55 on the turn, leaving myself about 125 for the river. My plan is to shove almost all rivers, and my only fear is that my turn bet gets raised. He calls, and I have his range heavily weighted towards 1 pair hands, as I am not expecting a draw, and I think a set would have raised me by now.
The river is the 5s, completing my flush, and pairing the board. I tank for a bit and then shove. He looks resigned, and then decides to call. I table my flush, expecting to be slid the pot, and he tables As6s for the nut flush. Definitely a kick in the teeth there, as I see that I would have likely won the pot with my river bet had the spade or ace not gotten there.
Finally some payback
UTG (same player from the weak tight and missed opportunity hands) opens to 12, I 3bet to 36 with AA(this is the 3rd or 4th time I have 3 bet him, and we haven't shown down yet, so I think he has to be getting suspicious). The BB (A6s nut flush guy) cold calls, and then UTG calls. So 3 to the flop with a pot of 105-ish.
Effective stacks are 280. Flop is 873r. They both check to me and I make an unorthodox check, partially for pot control, and partially for deception, knowing that UTG will bet the turn if given the chance.
The turn is a great card, another 3. THe BB checks, UTG bets 37, I smooth call, and the BB calls (very thrilled he didn't raise, as I am pretty sure I am good here because of it).
The river is a K. Both players check to me and now I know I am good. I elect to bet 90, the BB folds, and UTG goes into the tank before letting curiosity get the better of him and call. My hand is good and I don't see his cards.
In the end I turned a very small profit of 30, which was great considering I was stuck about 340 at one point. Definitely mangled a few hands, but still felt good to battle and eek out a profit.
Elementary Fold
After about 1 orbit or so of folding, I pick up JJ in EP. The pot is straddled by the button to 5, one of the blinds call, and I raise to 25. Player after me calls (125 behind), next player (stack of about 400) raises to 110, player immediately after him shoves for 145. Fold to me, I fold, the first caller goes all-in for his 125. The hands are AA out of the first caller, KK out of the guy that made it 110, and unknown out of the shover. The board runs out QQ9KJ, and the kings take down a monster.
Interesting hand I wasn't involved in
An EP player raised to 12, and got 4 callers. The raiser was playing with a big stack, but effective stacks for the hand was 200. Flop came K22, and the raiser bet 35, getting called by a female regular who plays decent, if not a bit station-y. The turn was a 6, putting 2 clubs on board, and the PF raiser checks, and the woman bets 50, leaving about 125 behind. The PF raiser quickly says all-in. After a very brief consideration, she calls. The river is a blank, and the PF raiser is hesitant to flip his cards. She tables 99 and he mucks.
I thought he did a credible job of repping AK, AA or KK there, but apparently she didn't. She seemed to think that betting a K would have been odd on that flop, which I disagree with, at least in regards to my game.
Weak-tight
This was the first hand that I think I really misplayed. UTG (66 total) raises to 14, UTG+3 (stack of about 900, very aggressive opening in the last orbit, but he has shown down AK twice and KK once, so he may just be running hot) 3-bets to 46. I have QcQs on the button, with 240 behind. I am not sure what to do, as I think stack sizes are awkward to both call, and to shove. I think folding is actually fine here, though I decide to just call. UTG shoves his 66, and UTG+3 calls (I'm not sure if he could have re-raised here, I forget the rule there, but him not asking made me feel a little more re-assured). I decided to just call, as I didn't want to ask and tip the strength of my hand any more than I already had.
Flop was K76, and UTG+3 checked to me, I elected to check behind, as I had seen him check the flop with strong hands up to this point and then bet the turn. The turn was a 9, and he led 60. I was really leaning towards a call, but the fact that there was no side pot led me into a fold. He had TT, while UTG had KQ, so had I 4 bet shoved pre-flop, I would have likely taken the whole pot, unless UTG was totally steaming and decided to go for it.
Missed opportunity
Another one that I misplayed. Same player from above hand raised to 12, and I 3 bet in position on the button to 36 with QsQc again, and he flatted. Flop was Q64. He checked, and I should have checked, as I think he would have bet any turn. Instead I bet 45, and he folded.
Getting cute
A few limpers to the CO who raises to 10. He has just lost a buyin, but doesn't seem to be steaming. He does seem like the kind that could overplay a hand and pay me off. I'm in the SB with 8s7s and elect to call, even though this is probably an elementary fold, given my position, as well as my relative position to the raiser. But, given the limpers I can see this being 4-5 ways to the flop, so that was my thinking going in. As expected, 3 players call and we see the flop 5 handed. While the calling was all going on, I decided if I flopped a draw, I would lead out with it, in an attempt to trap the 3 players between me and the PF raiser.
Flop was Ts5x4s. As planned, I make a weak lead of 25 into a pot of 50. Unfortunately all fold to the PF raiser who calls. The turn is a 2x. I follow through and bet 55 on the turn, leaving myself about 125 for the river. My plan is to shove almost all rivers, and my only fear is that my turn bet gets raised. He calls, and I have his range heavily weighted towards 1 pair hands, as I am not expecting a draw, and I think a set would have raised me by now.
The river is the 5s, completing my flush, and pairing the board. I tank for a bit and then shove. He looks resigned, and then decides to call. I table my flush, expecting to be slid the pot, and he tables As6s for the nut flush. Definitely a kick in the teeth there, as I see that I would have likely won the pot with my river bet had the spade or ace not gotten there.
Finally some payback
UTG (same player from the weak tight and missed opportunity hands) opens to 12, I 3bet to 36 with AA(this is the 3rd or 4th time I have 3 bet him, and we haven't shown down yet, so I think he has to be getting suspicious). The BB (A6s nut flush guy) cold calls, and then UTG calls. So 3 to the flop with a pot of 105-ish.
Effective stacks are 280. Flop is 873r. They both check to me and I make an unorthodox check, partially for pot control, and partially for deception, knowing that UTG will bet the turn if given the chance.
The turn is a great card, another 3. THe BB checks, UTG bets 37, I smooth call, and the BB calls (very thrilled he didn't raise, as I am pretty sure I am good here because of it).
The river is a K. Both players check to me and now I know I am good. I elect to bet 90, the BB folds, and UTG goes into the tank before letting curiosity get the better of him and call. My hand is good and I don't see his cards.
In the end I turned a very small profit of 30, which was great considering I was stuck about 340 at one point. Definitely mangled a few hands, but still felt good to battle and eek out a profit.
Friday, September 09, 2011
Dream session at Northville Downs
Here is a brief report from Northville Downs, from about a week and a half ago. It was one of those dream kind of sessions where every move I made I was right. Every time I needed to duck some outs, I was able to dodge them, and any time I needed a card to make my hand, I was able to make it.
In my first major hand, I was in the SB with T7o. Folded around to the bad player on the button who chop-blocked limped, I completed, and the BB (aggressive spewy regular - ASR for now) checked. The button was a bad player, who had a tendency to donk out into pots where he was out of position. After witnessing this a few times I was able to take a pot away from him earlier in the orbit after he called my pre-flop raise and donked the flop. Flop comes 773. Often I lead this flop, but I decided to check given who the other 2 players were in the hand. Surprisingly it gets checked around. Turn is a 4. I check, hoping somebody will stab at it, and it gets checked around again. The river is another 4, making the board 77344. Now I bet $10, ASR folds, and the button raises to $30 (with about $145 more behind, which I cover). After thinking about it for about 15-30 seconds, I shove, which is a slight overbet. My plan is to test the Zeebo theorem (if any of you guys around earlier in the days of online poker remember), that most players will not fold a full house. He debates for about a minute, looks like he is leaning towards a fold, and then calls. I show my hand, and he nods and shows T4 offsuit. Shocking that I was able to get $175 out of him on the river, when the pot started at $6.
After I have gotten my stack at about 400 or so, I really start attacking some of the passive limpers. I would say that I am able to pick up 10-15 pots uncontested after 1-2 limps in the next 2 hours or so, just by raising anywhere from $12-16, so I feel that I have very good control of the table.
A short while later, ASR limps UTG, there are a few more limpers and I check in the BB with QTo. Flop comes J9x. Check to ASR who bets 10, LP calls, and I call. Turn is a K (told you I was hitting good). ASR bets 25, LP calls, and I raise to 75. ASR shoves for 135 total, and LP folds and I call. He asks if I have a straight and the river blanks and my hand is good. He doesn't show but says he had JJ. Not so sure I believe him. He doesn't seem the type to limp JJ.
I win another $100 on another hand with an older regular when my overpair holds against a flush draw with one overcard.
Another hand with ASR. I am really starting to roll at this point. He has rebought in for 200, and may even be up to 250, which I easily cover. Straddled pot by UTG. Fold to me and I raise to 15 UTG+1 with JJ. ASR calls, and there is one other caller in position, so pot is about $50. Flop comes 776. I lead $25, and ASR immediately and confidently says "$50." I'm not inclined to believe he has a 7 here, as he isn't the loosest of players pre-flop, and I also think he would have re-raised QQ+. After the other caller folds, I decide to make it $150, and he quickly folds.
Like I said in the beginning, just one of those sessions where everything went right and you feel like you can do no wrong. There was definitely some good strong play thrown in as well, but often the two can run hand in hand. I've definitely been on the other side of things, so I know the feeling.
In my first major hand, I was in the SB with T7o. Folded around to the bad player on the button who chop-blocked limped, I completed, and the BB (aggressive spewy regular - ASR for now) checked. The button was a bad player, who had a tendency to donk out into pots where he was out of position. After witnessing this a few times I was able to take a pot away from him earlier in the orbit after he called my pre-flop raise and donked the flop. Flop comes 773. Often I lead this flop, but I decided to check given who the other 2 players were in the hand. Surprisingly it gets checked around. Turn is a 4. I check, hoping somebody will stab at it, and it gets checked around again. The river is another 4, making the board 77344. Now I bet $10, ASR folds, and the button raises to $30 (with about $145 more behind, which I cover). After thinking about it for about 15-30 seconds, I shove, which is a slight overbet. My plan is to test the Zeebo theorem (if any of you guys around earlier in the days of online poker remember), that most players will not fold a full house. He debates for about a minute, looks like he is leaning towards a fold, and then calls. I show my hand, and he nods and shows T4 offsuit. Shocking that I was able to get $175 out of him on the river, when the pot started at $6.
After I have gotten my stack at about 400 or so, I really start attacking some of the passive limpers. I would say that I am able to pick up 10-15 pots uncontested after 1-2 limps in the next 2 hours or so, just by raising anywhere from $12-16, so I feel that I have very good control of the table.
A short while later, ASR limps UTG, there are a few more limpers and I check in the BB with QTo. Flop comes J9x. Check to ASR who bets 10, LP calls, and I call. Turn is a K (told you I was hitting good). ASR bets 25, LP calls, and I raise to 75. ASR shoves for 135 total, and LP folds and I call. He asks if I have a straight and the river blanks and my hand is good. He doesn't show but says he had JJ. Not so sure I believe him. He doesn't seem the type to limp JJ.
I win another $100 on another hand with an older regular when my overpair holds against a flush draw with one overcard.
Another hand with ASR. I am really starting to roll at this point. He has rebought in for 200, and may even be up to 250, which I easily cover. Straddled pot by UTG. Fold to me and I raise to 15 UTG+1 with JJ. ASR calls, and there is one other caller in position, so pot is about $50. Flop comes 776. I lead $25, and ASR immediately and confidently says "$50." I'm not inclined to believe he has a 7 here, as he isn't the loosest of players pre-flop, and I also think he would have re-raised QQ+. After the other caller folds, I decide to make it $150, and he quickly folds.
Like I said in the beginning, just one of those sessions where everything went right and you feel like you can do no wrong. There was definitely some good strong play thrown in as well, but often the two can run hand in hand. I've definitely been on the other side of things, so I know the feeling.
Foxwoods Trip Report
In early August I was on a trip to Rhode Island with my wife and daughter. While trying to figure out things to do, I noticed Foxwoods was only about 45 minutes away from where I was staying, so I made a point of it to try to make a trip there. I was able to find a chance on a Wednesday night, so I made the drive, leaving about 9pm or so. I didn't have the call ahead number and I didn't feel like researching it, so I knew I may have a wait on my hands.
The resort wasn't exactly how I envisioned it, as I expected it to be a sprawling resort cut out of the middle of the forest. In fact, I was slightly confused when I missed my turnoff and saw MGM Foxwoods, which I didn't even know existed. I aimed for the original Foxwoods, assuming the poker room would be there somewhere. After parking in the garage and entering the casino, I was able to find the poker room fairly easily due to the signs, and it was down an escalator at basically the ground floor or slightly below the ground (I think, I was a little disoriented from going up the garage, and then up and down escalators and elevators).
I entered the poker room and put my name on both the 1/2 and 2/5 lists (which was dangerous, as I had only about 650 with me). I was about 15th on the 2/5 list, and about 25th on the 1/2 list. The lists ran through semi-quickly, and after about 20 minutes I got called to the 1/2 game. You can buy-in for 300, and I bought in for the max. The table however, didn't have much money, and I covered everybody. There were several 100-150 stacks. The first hand had a bunch of limps, and I took it down with a raise pre-flop with something like ATx. I was immediately called for the 2/5 game, and after observing another limp happy, tightly played post flop hand, I decided to take the seat in the 2/5 game.
The 2/5 was in another area of the room, but the way they run things with multiple floor people, responsible for their own section, and walkie talkies makes it run fairly smoothly. This table had a lot of decent sized stacks, however, the table only had 4 players on it as everyone else had ran to piss/smoke/eat/etc....I treaded water for a while, winning a few pots, losing a few pots. There were what I consider 2-3 tough players, a few average players, and one clear mark. There was more than your average amount of 3 betting from a few players in particular, who I had position on.
The first hand I tangled in, I opened in EP to 20 with 9h6h (very loose, I know, but that tends to be my preflop game, and it helps classify me as a bit of maniac, without a big cost generally). I was called in 3 places, and the flop came down Td9d6d. One of the blinds checked to me, and I led 55 into 80, and wasn't quite sure what I was going to do the rest of the hand if I encountered resistance. The player after me, who I considered the clear mark, almost immediately shoved for 350, and the other players folded. That left me to call about 295, into a pot a little less than 500. This was a tough spot, as I stated earlier, I was underfunded for the game on this trip, and basically only had one bullet with me. Generally in this spot I try to get a physical read on my opponent, so I started staring at him. He was initially leaning back, and when he noticed me looking at him, he immediately leaned forward in his chair and struck a very strong posture. Everything I was picking up off of him said "strong means weak", so I started weighing his range more strongly to weak made hands like AT with no diamonds, and hands with a bare Ad. Made flushes, made straights, and sets comprised a much smaller part of his range. As I continued to look at him he began to look uncomfortable, so I announced call and slid the chips across the line. After I slid them I knew I was correct by his reaction, we kept the cards turned down, the turn was a 2x, and the river was a terrible 8d. He took a few seconds to roll over Ad6x, to scoop the pot. It turned out I was 56% on the call against his actual holdings.
That hand hurt, as it knocked me down to about 250. I continued to play but my heart really wasn't in it, and I dusted off another 100 or so before deciding to leave.
An interesting note which I wasn't prepared for. I ordered a bloody mary, and about 15 minutes later it arrived. What was surprising was that the drink was comped. I'm very accustomed to that in Vegas, but haven't run into it elsewhere.
An interesting hand occurred earlier in the night in which I was not involved. The bottom line is that on the turn the board was unpaired and king high, with 3 diamonds, the 3rd diamond hitting on the turn. A guy who someone said used to be a professional boxer who seemed like a solid player bet something like 80, and an Asian who looked like he lacked experience shoved for what amounted to 300 more. The boxer looked pained when this move was made. The pot was heads-up, so without saying anything, he turned his cards over, exposing a 9 high flush. The Asian guy, apparently thinking this constituted a fold, turned over his cards, showing a set of Kings. The boxer looked confused for a second, and then said call. The board ran out a blank, and the boxer shipped the pot. The Asian guy looked real confused, not realizing what had happened. Eventually the floor was called, and the Asian was made aware that in a heads-up pot, you can expose your cards. He left the table immediately. I felt bad for him for a multitude of reasons, but it definitely goes to show that you need to understand the rules of the cardroom you are playing in.
The resort wasn't exactly how I envisioned it, as I expected it to be a sprawling resort cut out of the middle of the forest. In fact, I was slightly confused when I missed my turnoff and saw MGM Foxwoods, which I didn't even know existed. I aimed for the original Foxwoods, assuming the poker room would be there somewhere. After parking in the garage and entering the casino, I was able to find the poker room fairly easily due to the signs, and it was down an escalator at basically the ground floor or slightly below the ground (I think, I was a little disoriented from going up the garage, and then up and down escalators and elevators).
I entered the poker room and put my name on both the 1/2 and 2/5 lists (which was dangerous, as I had only about 650 with me). I was about 15th on the 2/5 list, and about 25th on the 1/2 list. The lists ran through semi-quickly, and after about 20 minutes I got called to the 1/2 game. You can buy-in for 300, and I bought in for the max. The table however, didn't have much money, and I covered everybody. There were several 100-150 stacks. The first hand had a bunch of limps, and I took it down with a raise pre-flop with something like ATx. I was immediately called for the 2/5 game, and after observing another limp happy, tightly played post flop hand, I decided to take the seat in the 2/5 game.
The 2/5 was in another area of the room, but the way they run things with multiple floor people, responsible for their own section, and walkie talkies makes it run fairly smoothly. This table had a lot of decent sized stacks, however, the table only had 4 players on it as everyone else had ran to piss/smoke/eat/etc....I treaded water for a while, winning a few pots, losing a few pots. There were what I consider 2-3 tough players, a few average players, and one clear mark. There was more than your average amount of 3 betting from a few players in particular, who I had position on.
The first hand I tangled in, I opened in EP to 20 with 9h6h (very loose, I know, but that tends to be my preflop game, and it helps classify me as a bit of maniac, without a big cost generally). I was called in 3 places, and the flop came down Td9d6d. One of the blinds checked to me, and I led 55 into 80, and wasn't quite sure what I was going to do the rest of the hand if I encountered resistance. The player after me, who I considered the clear mark, almost immediately shoved for 350, and the other players folded. That left me to call about 295, into a pot a little less than 500. This was a tough spot, as I stated earlier, I was underfunded for the game on this trip, and basically only had one bullet with me. Generally in this spot I try to get a physical read on my opponent, so I started staring at him. He was initially leaning back, and when he noticed me looking at him, he immediately leaned forward in his chair and struck a very strong posture. Everything I was picking up off of him said "strong means weak", so I started weighing his range more strongly to weak made hands like AT with no diamonds, and hands with a bare Ad. Made flushes, made straights, and sets comprised a much smaller part of his range. As I continued to look at him he began to look uncomfortable, so I announced call and slid the chips across the line. After I slid them I knew I was correct by his reaction, we kept the cards turned down, the turn was a 2x, and the river was a terrible 8d. He took a few seconds to roll over Ad6x, to scoop the pot. It turned out I was 56% on the call against his actual holdings.
That hand hurt, as it knocked me down to about 250. I continued to play but my heart really wasn't in it, and I dusted off another 100 or so before deciding to leave.
An interesting note which I wasn't prepared for. I ordered a bloody mary, and about 15 minutes later it arrived. What was surprising was that the drink was comped. I'm very accustomed to that in Vegas, but haven't run into it elsewhere.
An interesting hand occurred earlier in the night in which I was not involved. The bottom line is that on the turn the board was unpaired and king high, with 3 diamonds, the 3rd diamond hitting on the turn. A guy who someone said used to be a professional boxer who seemed like a solid player bet something like 80, and an Asian who looked like he lacked experience shoved for what amounted to 300 more. The boxer looked pained when this move was made. The pot was heads-up, so without saying anything, he turned his cards over, exposing a 9 high flush. The Asian guy, apparently thinking this constituted a fold, turned over his cards, showing a set of Kings. The boxer looked confused for a second, and then said call. The board ran out a blank, and the boxer shipped the pot. The Asian guy looked real confused, not realizing what had happened. Eventually the floor was called, and the Asian was made aware that in a heads-up pot, you can expose your cards. He left the table immediately. I felt bad for him for a multitude of reasons, but it definitely goes to show that you need to understand the rules of the cardroom you are playing in.
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
2011 $250 Redraft team
Here's the results of my redraft. Scoring is same as auction team, PPR, and you have to start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 FLEX.
Last year I went 5-8 in the league with a team that everyone loved. I was bit by Turner, Marshall and Shonn Greene all underachieving last year.
In this draft, you got to pick your draft spot and I got the #2 choice. I wanted Rice or Charles, and I looked at 12 high stakes draft leagues to see where players were going. The first choice picked the #3 spot, so I picked the #4 spot. In all of the leagues I looked at, one of Rice and Charles were there. The draft also uses 3rd round reversal, meaning the 3rd round goes the same order as the 2nd, and then snakes from there.
My strategy was again to get strong at WR, and go QB very late.
1.04 - Mendenall - Controversial choice here. Rice and Charles went 2 and 3. I hate ADP this year and didn't want him. Felt Rashard was a better pick. Flame away.
2.09 - Wallace - Love him this year. He was who I pegged in every mock I did. Not thrilled about the PIT-PIT start, but there are worse offenses I could lock in.
3.09 - Welker - PPR monster. With Ocho drawing a bit of attention, think his catch numbers may go back up, though his TD numbers will likely go down. Considered Mike Williams and Blount here.
4.04 - DeAngelo - Looks like I am going all-in on him this year. Definitely scares me, but the other RB's and WR's I liked for this spot were gone.
5.09 - Britt - Another one I am all-in on. Considered nobody else.
6.04 - Lynch - Wanted to go WR, but they were picked pretty thin. Considered V. Davis here.
7.09 - S. Rice - Definitely need WR's. His QB situation scares me, as does this new injury which happened after the pick was made.
8.04 - Meachem - Like the pick , and like him as a WR5 with big upside.
9.09 - Little - Got my 6th WR, another home run pick. Maybe could have waited, but there was nobody else I liked there.
10.04 - Woodhead - Suprised how good he was last year, and he can be a capable RB2/3 since he gets so many touches. Think the Pats will still keep him involved. Probably a need pick here since my RB2 scares the piss out of me.
11.09 - Cutler - I personally hate him, but love his prospects for big #'s this year. They got rid of Olsen, and will be turning the WR's loose this year.
12.04 - G. Olsen - Was going to go with Flacco here, but he went between my picks. Need a TE, and he could be the focal point of their passing game.
13.09 - Fred Davis - As I said in the other draft, could be huge.
14.04 - Cassel - Barf, but needed a backup QB.
15.09 - Thomas Jones - Meh, just trying to get a few RB's that have some potential, since I am fairly set at WR.
16.04 - Forsett - He's a handcuff who has proven capable in limited work starting.
17.09 - Redman - Another cuff.
18.04 - Taiwan Jones - Stranger things have happened, and Oakland's running game has been great in the recent past. DMC and Bush have never been pictures of health.
Overall - Jury is still out here. If DeAngelo shows up, this team could be very good. If not, it will be a struggle.
Last year I went 5-8 in the league with a team that everyone loved. I was bit by Turner, Marshall and Shonn Greene all underachieving last year.
In this draft, you got to pick your draft spot and I got the #2 choice. I wanted Rice or Charles, and I looked at 12 high stakes draft leagues to see where players were going. The first choice picked the #3 spot, so I picked the #4 spot. In all of the leagues I looked at, one of Rice and Charles were there. The draft also uses 3rd round reversal, meaning the 3rd round goes the same order as the 2nd, and then snakes from there.
My strategy was again to get strong at WR, and go QB very late.
1.04 - Mendenall - Controversial choice here. Rice and Charles went 2 and 3. I hate ADP this year and didn't want him. Felt Rashard was a better pick. Flame away.
2.09 - Wallace - Love him this year. He was who I pegged in every mock I did. Not thrilled about the PIT-PIT start, but there are worse offenses I could lock in.
3.09 - Welker - PPR monster. With Ocho drawing a bit of attention, think his catch numbers may go back up, though his TD numbers will likely go down. Considered Mike Williams and Blount here.
4.04 - DeAngelo - Looks like I am going all-in on him this year. Definitely scares me, but the other RB's and WR's I liked for this spot were gone.
5.09 - Britt - Another one I am all-in on. Considered nobody else.
6.04 - Lynch - Wanted to go WR, but they were picked pretty thin. Considered V. Davis here.
7.09 - S. Rice - Definitely need WR's. His QB situation scares me, as does this new injury which happened after the pick was made.
8.04 - Meachem - Like the pick , and like him as a WR5 with big upside.
9.09 - Little - Got my 6th WR, another home run pick. Maybe could have waited, but there was nobody else I liked there.
10.04 - Woodhead - Suprised how good he was last year, and he can be a capable RB2/3 since he gets so many touches. Think the Pats will still keep him involved. Probably a need pick here since my RB2 scares the piss out of me.
11.09 - Cutler - I personally hate him, but love his prospects for big #'s this year. They got rid of Olsen, and will be turning the WR's loose this year.
12.04 - G. Olsen - Was going to go with Flacco here, but he went between my picks. Need a TE, and he could be the focal point of their passing game.
13.09 - Fred Davis - As I said in the other draft, could be huge.
14.04 - Cassel - Barf, but needed a backup QB.
15.09 - Thomas Jones - Meh, just trying to get a few RB's that have some potential, since I am fairly set at WR.
16.04 - Forsett - He's a handcuff who has proven capable in limited work starting.
17.09 - Redman - Another cuff.
18.04 - Taiwan Jones - Stranger things have happened, and Oakland's running game has been great in the recent past. DMC and Bush have never been pictures of health.
Overall - Jury is still out here. If DeAngelo shows up, this team could be very good. If not, it will be a struggle.
2011 Auction $250 team
Here's the results of my auction draft. Scoring is PPR, and you have to start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 FLEX.
Last year I went 11-2 in the league with a team that none of you guys really liked, and lost in the semi's because I failed to notice my TE on the inactive list, and would have won starting my backup. $1000 mistake as I would have won the finals.
My strategy was to not spend a lot on anyone, and try to get very deep at WR as I feel that is the way to win this style of league. RB is not near as important, and I would like to start 4 WR's most weeks.
$400 salary cap, basically twice what me and Labelle were allotted when we split the WCOFF auction team, with the same exact scoring.
QB: Schaub 20, Leinart 1
I got a QB I can start every week for a decent price. I didn't want to spend any more on QB, so I rolled without a backup. His bye week is week 11, so I can scour the waiver wire until then. The lack of a backup means I am starting Leinart if he gets hurt, which is ok by me as I think most QB's could be serviceable in that system. In fact, would rather go Leinart then Cassel if that situation happens.
RB: Forte 72, Deangelo 47, Lynch 28, BJGE 15, Snelling 12, McGahee 9, Forsett 1
Forte is a PPR beast. Deangelo scares me, but I thought he was value. I think Lynch is very underrated this year, and can even be a #2 if DeAngelo flops. BJGE is strictly a bye week or injury fill-in. Snelling is a lottery pick, as I think Turner is on his last legs. Willis will be a TD vulture, and Forsett is just a low end handcuff who could pay off.
WR: MWilliams TB 52, Britt 36, Garcon 35, Little 13, Meachem 9, MWilliams SEA 8, Bennett 7
Didn't do as well as I hoped here. I like all of my guys, but I love them one slot lower than they are in my lineup. Williams will have to step up to achieve #1 status. Britt could be a #1, but he also could be a total bust (he is this years Bowe in my eyes). Garcon I always liked, but this was before the Peyton stuff came back out. Little I think could be starter potential in Cleveland, and I also like Meachem's chances with Colston's knee about to fall apart. The bad news is figuring out when to start him and Little. BMW may be a steal, since Rice is dinged up, and he was a great PPR guy last year. Bennett could be the lead guy in Martz's system.
TE: Daniels 27, Fred Davis 2
I had Daniels pegged as my #3 TE on the board, but had to pay for him, as he was one of the last upper tier guys left. Should have gone for Vernon at 25 earlier in the draft, but figured Daniels to be in the 20 range. I do have the Schaub/Daniels hookup though. Fred Davis could be huge, as I don't think Cooley plays much this year.
Overall: I give myself a B- here. I did a lot of pre-work, made a budget, and stuck to my budget. The problem was that a lot of the guys I was very high on went for more $ than I had planned them to go for, reducing my ability to grab other guys.
Last year I went 11-2 in the league with a team that none of you guys really liked, and lost in the semi's because I failed to notice my TE on the inactive list, and would have won starting my backup. $1000 mistake as I would have won the finals.
My strategy was to not spend a lot on anyone, and try to get very deep at WR as I feel that is the way to win this style of league. RB is not near as important, and I would like to start 4 WR's most weeks.
$400 salary cap, basically twice what me and Labelle were allotted when we split the WCOFF auction team, with the same exact scoring.
QB: Schaub 20, Leinart 1
I got a QB I can start every week for a decent price. I didn't want to spend any more on QB, so I rolled without a backup. His bye week is week 11, so I can scour the waiver wire until then. The lack of a backup means I am starting Leinart if he gets hurt, which is ok by me as I think most QB's could be serviceable in that system. In fact, would rather go Leinart then Cassel if that situation happens.
RB: Forte 72, Deangelo 47, Lynch 28, BJGE 15, Snelling 12, McGahee 9, Forsett 1
Forte is a PPR beast. Deangelo scares me, but I thought he was value. I think Lynch is very underrated this year, and can even be a #2 if DeAngelo flops. BJGE is strictly a bye week or injury fill-in. Snelling is a lottery pick, as I think Turner is on his last legs. Willis will be a TD vulture, and Forsett is just a low end handcuff who could pay off.
WR: MWilliams TB 52, Britt 36, Garcon 35, Little 13, Meachem 9, MWilliams SEA 8, Bennett 7
Didn't do as well as I hoped here. I like all of my guys, but I love them one slot lower than they are in my lineup. Williams will have to step up to achieve #1 status. Britt could be a #1, but he also could be a total bust (he is this years Bowe in my eyes). Garcon I always liked, but this was before the Peyton stuff came back out. Little I think could be starter potential in Cleveland, and I also like Meachem's chances with Colston's knee about to fall apart. The bad news is figuring out when to start him and Little. BMW may be a steal, since Rice is dinged up, and he was a great PPR guy last year. Bennett could be the lead guy in Martz's system.
TE: Daniels 27, Fred Davis 2
I had Daniels pegged as my #3 TE on the board, but had to pay for him, as he was one of the last upper tier guys left. Should have gone for Vernon at 25 earlier in the draft, but figured Daniels to be in the 20 range. I do have the Schaub/Daniels hookup though. Fred Davis could be huge, as I don't think Cooley plays much this year.
Overall: I give myself a B- here. I did a lot of pre-work, made a budget, and stuck to my budget. The problem was that a lot of the guys I was very high on went for more $ than I had planned them to go for, reducing my ability to grab other guys.
Friday, August 26, 2011
2011 Mystic Creek Club Championship
Two weeks after playing the Michigan Publinx State Match Play, I was considering playing the Mystic Creek Club Championship, at Mystic Creek near my house. The draw was that it would give me an excuse to play 36 more holes of competitive golf. When deciding to register, I got more tournament details from a guy in the Pro Shop (not the pro). The tournament will flight you after 18 holes (you can essentially pick your partner the opening round), and then the final 18 holes would be the next day. I was told two very key details, (1) That if I shot 80 I would not likely be in the Championship flight, and (2) the scores reset after the first round. Knowing these details I decided to go for it.
The first round was brutally hot and humid, and I teed off at 10am, which put me in the middle of it. We were scheduled to play the Woods then the Meadows. My favorite side is the Lakes, which wasn't being played on day 1, and the Woods is by far my least favorite, given several holes that make playing a draw like I do very difficult. My playing partners was a very young employee of the course, and a middle aged guy who just seemed happy to be golfing. On the first hole, I piped a drive down the middle, and hit a sand wedge to about 4 feet. I missed the putt but got an easy par to start things off. I was 2 over after 6 holes before 3 putting the par 3 7th for double, and then bogeying 8 and 9, both from the middle of the fairway. So I went out in 42, after playing what I felt was very good (with 20 putts on the front). The back 9 started off bogey, par, then I made a triple on the par 5 3rd (my 12th hole). I had 115 in for my second shot and missed the green by about a yard to the left, which in turn kicked into a wooded area where I had to take an unplayable lie. Then I chili-dipped a chip, and 2 putted for 8. I alternated pars and bogies coming in until the par 5 9th. I smoked a drive down the left hand side, and only had 185 in from the fairway bunker. The shot was straight uphill so I went with my hybrid and hit it very flush, but a bit right of the green. It proceeded to hit the cart path and kick into what I later found out was a hazard. Before I knew it was a hazard I went through the debacle of playing a provisional from the bunker, where my drop plugged. When all was said and done I had carded an 86, which was complete with 39 putts and 2 penalty strokes. I had amazingly not 1 putted a single green. The reality was that I hit the ball fairly well, hitting 9 of 14 fairways, and 10 of 18 greens. I figured this kind of round ensured I wouldn't make championship flight.
The next morning when I arrived at the course, I found out that the pro put me in championship flight, as the last player out of 10. This immediately made me think I would have to shoot low, this being a 1 day shootout and all. Then I found out the scoring was cumulative, which demoralized me. I was 12 strokes behind the leader, and 3 strokes behind even 9th place. This was amazingly frustrating to me, and I played like it, shooting 42 on the Woods side again, which included some really bad play, and also a 4 putt. Despite this, I was still beating my playing companions, who had all shot 83 the first day. Heading into the Lakes side I just decided to have some fun, and try to shoot a good score on a side I really enjoy. I parred 1, made a good up and down for par on the long par 5 2nd (my first 1 putt in 29 holes). Then I rolled in a 15 footer for birdie on 3. After bogeying 4 and 6 (both long par 3's), I was 1 over on the side. I then parred the difficult 7th, which the rest of my playing partners totally butchered off of the tee. On 8, which is the par 4 with the super elevated tee and the water on the left, I made sure to not hit the water, and aimed way right, shooting my ball into some trees behind a hill. According to the GPS I had 114 to the hole. But it was a difficult shot as I had to go over the hill, and under a tree, on a blind shot. I decided on hitting a very easy 7 iron, and hit a beauty, landing it 10 feet short of the hole and rolling 15 feet by. I rolled in the putt for a fantastic birdie and after parring the 9th, I had closed with a 36 on the very difficult Lakes side. The rest of my group shot an 84, 91, and 117 (I know, how did he shoot an 83 the 1st round??? Makes you wonder). So I had beaten everyone in my group for the 2 day tournament, but I had no illusions about the rest of the field.
The other 2 groups were following me in, and the scores surprised me. In the end I had passed 7 players to finish in 3rd place, and had the low round of the day by 5 strokes!!! For my work I got a $40 gift certificate, which meant I paid $60 for 2 rounds of tournament golf, not terrible at all.
The tourney taught a pretty valuable lesson, one which you would think I would already know. The first was the importance of managing your game throughout a tournament. I know there were 4-5 strokes that I left out there just by being careless with a few shots. The second is to make sure you understand the tournament format from the beginning, and to make sure you speak to the right people to ensure your information is adequate.
The first round was brutally hot and humid, and I teed off at 10am, which put me in the middle of it. We were scheduled to play the Woods then the Meadows. My favorite side is the Lakes, which wasn't being played on day 1, and the Woods is by far my least favorite, given several holes that make playing a draw like I do very difficult. My playing partners was a very young employee of the course, and a middle aged guy who just seemed happy to be golfing. On the first hole, I piped a drive down the middle, and hit a sand wedge to about 4 feet. I missed the putt but got an easy par to start things off. I was 2 over after 6 holes before 3 putting the par 3 7th for double, and then bogeying 8 and 9, both from the middle of the fairway. So I went out in 42, after playing what I felt was very good (with 20 putts on the front). The back 9 started off bogey, par, then I made a triple on the par 5 3rd (my 12th hole). I had 115 in for my second shot and missed the green by about a yard to the left, which in turn kicked into a wooded area where I had to take an unplayable lie. Then I chili-dipped a chip, and 2 putted for 8. I alternated pars and bogies coming in until the par 5 9th. I smoked a drive down the left hand side, and only had 185 in from the fairway bunker. The shot was straight uphill so I went with my hybrid and hit it very flush, but a bit right of the green. It proceeded to hit the cart path and kick into what I later found out was a hazard. Before I knew it was a hazard I went through the debacle of playing a provisional from the bunker, where my drop plugged. When all was said and done I had carded an 86, which was complete with 39 putts and 2 penalty strokes. I had amazingly not 1 putted a single green. The reality was that I hit the ball fairly well, hitting 9 of 14 fairways, and 10 of 18 greens. I figured this kind of round ensured I wouldn't make championship flight.
The next morning when I arrived at the course, I found out that the pro put me in championship flight, as the last player out of 10. This immediately made me think I would have to shoot low, this being a 1 day shootout and all. Then I found out the scoring was cumulative, which demoralized me. I was 12 strokes behind the leader, and 3 strokes behind even 9th place. This was amazingly frustrating to me, and I played like it, shooting 42 on the Woods side again, which included some really bad play, and also a 4 putt. Despite this, I was still beating my playing companions, who had all shot 83 the first day. Heading into the Lakes side I just decided to have some fun, and try to shoot a good score on a side I really enjoy. I parred 1, made a good up and down for par on the long par 5 2nd (my first 1 putt in 29 holes). Then I rolled in a 15 footer for birdie on 3. After bogeying 4 and 6 (both long par 3's), I was 1 over on the side. I then parred the difficult 7th, which the rest of my playing partners totally butchered off of the tee. On 8, which is the par 4 with the super elevated tee and the water on the left, I made sure to not hit the water, and aimed way right, shooting my ball into some trees behind a hill. According to the GPS I had 114 to the hole. But it was a difficult shot as I had to go over the hill, and under a tree, on a blind shot. I decided on hitting a very easy 7 iron, and hit a beauty, landing it 10 feet short of the hole and rolling 15 feet by. I rolled in the putt for a fantastic birdie and after parring the 9th, I had closed with a 36 on the very difficult Lakes side. The rest of my group shot an 84, 91, and 117 (I know, how did he shoot an 83 the 1st round??? Makes you wonder). So I had beaten everyone in my group for the 2 day tournament, but I had no illusions about the rest of the field.
The other 2 groups were following me in, and the scores surprised me. In the end I had passed 7 players to finish in 3rd place, and had the low round of the day by 5 strokes!!! For my work I got a $40 gift certificate, which meant I paid $60 for 2 rounds of tournament golf, not terrible at all.
The tourney taught a pretty valuable lesson, one which you would think I would already know. The first was the importance of managing your game throughout a tournament. I know there were 4-5 strokes that I left out there just by being careless with a few shots. The second is to make sure you understand the tournament format from the beginning, and to make sure you speak to the right people to ensure your information is adequate.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
2011 Michigan Publinx State Match Play write-up
It's been over a month, so I should probably write about the Michigan State Publinx Matchplay championship that I played in during July.
The tournament was at Bedford Valley and Stonehedge North golf course in Battle Creek. The tournament consists of 36 holes of qualifying, one round at each course, and then players are divided into flights based on their 36 hole scores. I played in this tournament back in the late 90's, and was always in the first or second flight (both below championship flight). But looking at past scores it appears that enrollment is down, and the senior division is now 50 and over, so the flights have become more watered down. In any case, I determined looking at 2009 and 2010 results that a 2 day score of 157 was right on the borderline to making championship flight.
Championship flight was not my goal, as I know that the best players typically shoot under par, and my game is nowhere near that, nor has it ever been. My first round was at Stonehedge North, the course that I had never played, but had deemed easier judging by the course rating. My group had 3 players total, one of them was a 30 year old guy from Livonia, who wore a hearing aid. He was a nice enough guy, but a bit of a close talker, and very loud, talkative and repetitive on the golf course. He said he had played in the tournament 7 times but had yet to win a match. The other player was a guy around 38-40 from the Lansing area, who also had played before in the tournament, though I'm not sure of his results.
The first days forecast was ominous, and play was predictably slow. I bogied an easy par 5 to start, and after doubling the 7th (tee shot in the trees forcing me to punch out to the fairway, and then a 3 putt after my wedge to the green) and I was +4. The 9th was a long par 5, which I reached the front of in 2, and managed to get up and down to go out in 39. I parred 10, 3-putted 11 for bogie, birdied the par 5 12th, and then bogied the 13th with yet another 3 putt. On the par 5 14th I drove the ball through the fairway and had 240 to the green, going straight downhill. The green was guarded on the left by water, and the right hand side was guarded by trees. Even the flight to the green was guarded by an overhanging tree limb, making going for it a stupid idea. But the frustration from my two recent 3-putts must have made me go for it, and in making sure to not go left into the water, I blocked it right into the trees and never found it. I played from my provisional ball, and chunked a chip shot, and when it was all over I made an 8, when it was almost a sure par had I laid up. I made 1 more bogie on 17, and then on the 18th fairway the rain and lightening hit us, and we were hit with a 45 minute rain delay. After the rain delay I had to hit my first shot out of the fairway bunker, and then my approach went into the greenside bunker. I managed to get up and down from the bunker for par to shoot an 80, but I felt I left an awful lot of shots on the course.
That night I went to Firekeepers to play some poker and hang out. There I hooked up with Chris, who I played with on the high school golf team (he was 2 years younger). He had shot 76 and was also disappointed. I ran very cold at cards, and made some very good brute plays to get ahead early, but by the end of the night people started making strong hands against me and I finished down about a buy-in.
The next day was at Bedford Valley, where I had played a practice round 2 weeks earlier and shot 77. The course was very straight forward, but forced you to hit the ball straight, or miss badly to have shots into the green. Prior to the round I calculated my position in the field to be somewhere in the upper 50's, meaning Championship flight was a legitimate possibility. However, before the round started there was word that they may put less than 64 in that flight. I started very poorly, 4 over after 4 holes, missing fairways to the left, and never got it together on the first nine (playing the back first) and made the turn in 42. After parring #1, I piped a drive down the center of the fairway on #2, however when we got to the area where the ball should be, my ball was nowhere to be found. We finally saw a ball way left of the fairway (like 30-40 yards left) and it turned out to be mine. The only possible explanation was that it hit the 150 yard marker, a sprinkler head, or an animal grabbed it and took it away. Regardless, it made my shot much more difficult, and I didn't handle it well, shanking my approach and making a double. I rebounded with a birdie on 3, and played average the last 6 (despite missing every fairway) and finished with back to back 80's.
My thinking after the round was that it wouldn't be good enough to make championship flight. The guys in my group shot 79-87, and 85-92 or something to that effect, so I was the low score in the group. When I returned to the course later that evening and saw the scores, I counted and saw that I was in 64th place all by myself. In other words, the bottom seed of the championship flight, which means that if they do a 64 person flight, I have to play the medalist of the whole tourney, who shot 67-70 for the 2 days. Sure enough ,an hour later when the brackets came out, that was my fate. At least I knew that I had no pressure on me, and I would likely not have to worry about hotel accommodations beyond that night.
That evening I again went to Firekeepers, playing 1/2 and 1/3, turning a small profit, including playing the nut flush very trickily at a 1/3 table to make some decent money.
The first round of the matches was a shotgun start, with my match starting on the 1st hole. My driving woes continued as I snap hooked it into the trees, though my opponent (Steve) made birdie to go 1up early. On #2 I drove down the center and Steve drove left and was partially blocked. He hit a good recovery shot, and got up and down for par, and I parred to halve the hole. The third hole was similar, in that I was in the fairway and he was under pine tree on the left. He hit a phenomenal recovery shot to 20 feet, and I pulled my approach about 30 feet left. I proceeded to 3 putt and he 2 putted and I was 2 down after 3 holes. On #4 we both barely missed birdie putts and halved the hole. On #5, a long par 3, he hit the green and I proceeded to shank a 4 iron, and was now 3 down after 5 holes.
The 6th hole I had a ray of light as he pulled his drive into the trees, but I proceeded to do the same thing, and we both had to punch out to 155 yards out. His approach ended up on the fringe, about 15 feet away from the pin, mine landed about 20 feet short. I rolled in my par putt, and he missed his, and I was back to 2 down after 6. The 7th hole was more of the same, as I immediately hit a monster hook into the greenside bunker of the next hole, effectively eliminating me from the hole. 3 down after 7. His tee shot on the par 3 8th landed just short in the same bunker I was in the previous hole. I hit a good safe shot onto the green, and 2 putted, and he failed to get up and down and I was again 2 down. But I just couldn't hit the driver straight and immediately hooked it into the trees on #9. He made that moot by making birdie, and just like that I was 3 down at the turn. I managed to win 2 holes on the side, but instead of building on that momentum with a good tee shot, I immediately left the door open and gave back the hole I had just won, which you can't do in any match, let alone against a guy as good as Steve.
On the 10th I missed the green with my approach, but got up and down with a great flop shot to save par and halve the hole. On 11 we both hit the green but I was only 8 feet above the hole. After he missed his birdie putt, my putt hung on the edge and I missed an opportunity. The long par 3 12th was more work for me, as I missed in the left bunker, however I hit a good bunker shot and made a nice putt to halve the hole and stay 3 down with 6 to play. The par 5 13th I went with my plan (the one I didn't follow the previous day when I hit the water with a driver) and laid back with my hybrid. Steve piped driver right to the waters edge, and could reach the green from there. I hit a good layup and wedged to 15 feet. His 3 wood approach clipped a tree limb, but it fortuitously stayed out of the woods or bunker, and he pitched to 2 feet for a gimme birdie. My birdie putt lipped out and I was now 4 down with 5 to play. I made another very good up and down on 14 for par to halve the hole, and go dormie 4. After we both missed our birdie putts on 14, I conceded the match and lost 4&3.
It was a respectable score considering that he was the medalist, but I played so awful that I couldn't help but be disappointed. He was 1 under par for the round, but I really felt that I didn't make him work at all. In looking at the results online, he won his next 3 matches to make the semi-finals before losing.
It was a fun tournament, and I learned a lot playing with the medalist. I learned that I am really not that far away from him in terms of skill. The difference is the consistency in ball striking, and the short game. His chip shots were all very close, and every putt he hit felt like it was going in. It also reminded me to think a little more around the golf course, and not give up as many strokes as I did, as I could have earned a better seed and perhaps played a worse player in the 1st round.
The tournament was at Bedford Valley and Stonehedge North golf course in Battle Creek. The tournament consists of 36 holes of qualifying, one round at each course, and then players are divided into flights based on their 36 hole scores. I played in this tournament back in the late 90's, and was always in the first or second flight (both below championship flight). But looking at past scores it appears that enrollment is down, and the senior division is now 50 and over, so the flights have become more watered down. In any case, I determined looking at 2009 and 2010 results that a 2 day score of 157 was right on the borderline to making championship flight.
Championship flight was not my goal, as I know that the best players typically shoot under par, and my game is nowhere near that, nor has it ever been. My first round was at Stonehedge North, the course that I had never played, but had deemed easier judging by the course rating. My group had 3 players total, one of them was a 30 year old guy from Livonia, who wore a hearing aid. He was a nice enough guy, but a bit of a close talker, and very loud, talkative and repetitive on the golf course. He said he had played in the tournament 7 times but had yet to win a match. The other player was a guy around 38-40 from the Lansing area, who also had played before in the tournament, though I'm not sure of his results.
The first days forecast was ominous, and play was predictably slow. I bogied an easy par 5 to start, and after doubling the 7th (tee shot in the trees forcing me to punch out to the fairway, and then a 3 putt after my wedge to the green) and I was +4. The 9th was a long par 5, which I reached the front of in 2, and managed to get up and down to go out in 39. I parred 10, 3-putted 11 for bogie, birdied the par 5 12th, and then bogied the 13th with yet another 3 putt. On the par 5 14th I drove the ball through the fairway and had 240 to the green, going straight downhill. The green was guarded on the left by water, and the right hand side was guarded by trees. Even the flight to the green was guarded by an overhanging tree limb, making going for it a stupid idea. But the frustration from my two recent 3-putts must have made me go for it, and in making sure to not go left into the water, I blocked it right into the trees and never found it. I played from my provisional ball, and chunked a chip shot, and when it was all over I made an 8, when it was almost a sure par had I laid up. I made 1 more bogie on 17, and then on the 18th fairway the rain and lightening hit us, and we were hit with a 45 minute rain delay. After the rain delay I had to hit my first shot out of the fairway bunker, and then my approach went into the greenside bunker. I managed to get up and down from the bunker for par to shoot an 80, but I felt I left an awful lot of shots on the course.
That night I went to Firekeepers to play some poker and hang out. There I hooked up with Chris, who I played with on the high school golf team (he was 2 years younger). He had shot 76 and was also disappointed. I ran very cold at cards, and made some very good brute plays to get ahead early, but by the end of the night people started making strong hands against me and I finished down about a buy-in.
The next day was at Bedford Valley, where I had played a practice round 2 weeks earlier and shot 77. The course was very straight forward, but forced you to hit the ball straight, or miss badly to have shots into the green. Prior to the round I calculated my position in the field to be somewhere in the upper 50's, meaning Championship flight was a legitimate possibility. However, before the round started there was word that they may put less than 64 in that flight. I started very poorly, 4 over after 4 holes, missing fairways to the left, and never got it together on the first nine (playing the back first) and made the turn in 42. After parring #1, I piped a drive down the center of the fairway on #2, however when we got to the area where the ball should be, my ball was nowhere to be found. We finally saw a ball way left of the fairway (like 30-40 yards left) and it turned out to be mine. The only possible explanation was that it hit the 150 yard marker, a sprinkler head, or an animal grabbed it and took it away. Regardless, it made my shot much more difficult, and I didn't handle it well, shanking my approach and making a double. I rebounded with a birdie on 3, and played average the last 6 (despite missing every fairway) and finished with back to back 80's.
My thinking after the round was that it wouldn't be good enough to make championship flight. The guys in my group shot 79-87, and 85-92 or something to that effect, so I was the low score in the group. When I returned to the course later that evening and saw the scores, I counted and saw that I was in 64th place all by myself. In other words, the bottom seed of the championship flight, which means that if they do a 64 person flight, I have to play the medalist of the whole tourney, who shot 67-70 for the 2 days. Sure enough ,an hour later when the brackets came out, that was my fate. At least I knew that I had no pressure on me, and I would likely not have to worry about hotel accommodations beyond that night.
That evening I again went to Firekeepers, playing 1/2 and 1/3, turning a small profit, including playing the nut flush very trickily at a 1/3 table to make some decent money.
The first round of the matches was a shotgun start, with my match starting on the 1st hole. My driving woes continued as I snap hooked it into the trees, though my opponent (Steve) made birdie to go 1up early. On #2 I drove down the center and Steve drove left and was partially blocked. He hit a good recovery shot, and got up and down for par, and I parred to halve the hole. The third hole was similar, in that I was in the fairway and he was under pine tree on the left. He hit a phenomenal recovery shot to 20 feet, and I pulled my approach about 30 feet left. I proceeded to 3 putt and he 2 putted and I was 2 down after 3 holes. On #4 we both barely missed birdie putts and halved the hole. On #5, a long par 3, he hit the green and I proceeded to shank a 4 iron, and was now 3 down after 5 holes.
The 6th hole I had a ray of light as he pulled his drive into the trees, but I proceeded to do the same thing, and we both had to punch out to 155 yards out. His approach ended up on the fringe, about 15 feet away from the pin, mine landed about 20 feet short. I rolled in my par putt, and he missed his, and I was back to 2 down after 6. The 7th hole was more of the same, as I immediately hit a monster hook into the greenside bunker of the next hole, effectively eliminating me from the hole. 3 down after 7. His tee shot on the par 3 8th landed just short in the same bunker I was in the previous hole. I hit a good safe shot onto the green, and 2 putted, and he failed to get up and down and I was again 2 down. But I just couldn't hit the driver straight and immediately hooked it into the trees on #9. He made that moot by making birdie, and just like that I was 3 down at the turn. I managed to win 2 holes on the side, but instead of building on that momentum with a good tee shot, I immediately left the door open and gave back the hole I had just won, which you can't do in any match, let alone against a guy as good as Steve.
On the 10th I missed the green with my approach, but got up and down with a great flop shot to save par and halve the hole. On 11 we both hit the green but I was only 8 feet above the hole. After he missed his birdie putt, my putt hung on the edge and I missed an opportunity. The long par 3 12th was more work for me, as I missed in the left bunker, however I hit a good bunker shot and made a nice putt to halve the hole and stay 3 down with 6 to play. The par 5 13th I went with my plan (the one I didn't follow the previous day when I hit the water with a driver) and laid back with my hybrid. Steve piped driver right to the waters edge, and could reach the green from there. I hit a good layup and wedged to 15 feet. His 3 wood approach clipped a tree limb, but it fortuitously stayed out of the woods or bunker, and he pitched to 2 feet for a gimme birdie. My birdie putt lipped out and I was now 4 down with 5 to play. I made another very good up and down on 14 for par to halve the hole, and go dormie 4. After we both missed our birdie putts on 14, I conceded the match and lost 4&3.
It was a respectable score considering that he was the medalist, but I played so awful that I couldn't help but be disappointed. He was 1 under par for the round, but I really felt that I didn't make him work at all. In looking at the results online, he won his next 3 matches to make the semi-finals before losing.
It was a fun tournament, and I learned a lot playing with the medalist. I learned that I am really not that far away from him in terms of skill. The difference is the consistency in ball striking, and the short game. His chip shots were all very close, and every putt he hit felt like it was going in. It also reminded me to think a little more around the golf course, and not give up as many strokes as I did, as I could have earned a better seed and perhaps played a worse player in the 1st round.
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Upswing continues
Despite a little hiccup at Firekeepers when I was at the Michigan Publinx State Match Play, my upswing continued at Northville Downs yesterday.
Got to Northville at about 5:15pm after work. Table was reasonably deep stacked, with 3-4 players sitting on $400 or more, and only 1 short stack.
A good start: Immediately I get involved, 1st hand I raise up to 12 from MP with AQ, and get one of the blinds, a golfer to call, who has $300, and if I remember right is an action player. Flop is A87, he checks, I bet 15, he check raises to 30 and I call. Turn is a T, he bets 45 and I call. River is a K, which has to scare him if he has a hand like aces up, he checks, I check behind and he says he has queen high, so I am up a quick 80. I don't think betting the river is any good, as I don't see him folding any 2 pair hands, and he likely isn't calling with any 1 pair hands. My plan was to call almost all rivers, unless I picked something up on him.
Willard: Table is starting to get short (7 handed), but everyone has a stack. I am on a nice rush of cards, and raise pre-flop for the 4th straight hand, this time with AJ. I am called by the button and by Willard (tight old man who plays pretty passively, likes donk betting though, and has really had my number). Flop comes Jxx rainbow, and Willard donks 15, I call, and button folds. Turn is another low card putting 2 diamonds on board, and he bets 20, I raise to 55 and he calls. River is another low non-pairing diamond, completing the backdoor diamond draw, he checks and I decide to bet somewhat small for value, 65, and he folds QQ face-up. Says I got unlucky the diamond hit as he would have called.
Big flop, big hand: They combine tables and one of the biggest fish in the room gets moved immediately to my left, with a stack of 700. I have about 500 at this point. The hand is straddled by the button, and after 1 caller, I raise to 20 with AhTh. Fish calls and the limper folds. Flop is beautiful, Tx8h5h. I bet a little larger than normal, but probably imperceptible to him, 35, and he raises to 75. Generally in my experience he makes large bets and raises when he has nut-like hands. I make a small re-raise to 140 and he calls (in hindsight I think I should have raised a little bit more, as I would likely make a larger re-raise to 180 or so with an overpair). At the time I didn't want to fold out any draws that I dominate. The turn is another 8. I think his range is most tens, occasionally he will have an 8, sometimes J9 or even QJ, and a lot of flush draws. I was a little uneasy at the time, but I think the best play is to fire a smallish bet at the turn, maybe 125 or so. I am not folding if raised, but this way it allows him to call with hands that I want him to call with, while not allowing him to easily fold those hands. At the time though I chose checking, and he quickly checked behind. The river was a K. I checked with the intention of snap calling almost all bets, and he bet 65, which I called. He showed 6h3h. I would have gotten him for 250BB's if the heart had come.
A tough decision: Straddled pot, after a few limps I limp 8h6h, and we see a flop 5 ways. Flop is 764 with 1 heart, checks to me and I bet 15 (I had done this the previous hand in a straddled pot and took it down). Golfer on button calls (he has 600, I cover), and BB calls (he has about 325). Turn is another 6, check to me, I bet 40, button calls, and SB raises to 125, leaving himself 180-ish behind. I am pretty sure that the button is done with the hand based on my read of his range, and his demeanor after the raise. My read on him is that he was a thinking player, he was stuck about half of a buy-in, but seemed to play really straight-forward. I wasn't sure that he was capable of bluffing into two players in this spot, so I elected to fold. The button quickly folded. I told people that I folded a 6, just to try to get a response from him. Later in the night as he was racking up I asked him what he had, and he said that he was open-ended and repping the 6. I'm not sure I believe him, as most players would have taken the odds I was giving them to hit their draw (one of which would have given me a full house).
The one that got away: UTG to my right straddled, as he had done every chance he got (he was playing about 350). 2 things had happened when he straddled, the first was that I had raised it and he had folded, or after a lot of limps, he made a large re-raise. I sensed he was getting tired of me raising his straddle. I elected to call the straddle with AhQh. There were about 5 callers to him, and then he raised to 35. I was getting a little bit of a weak vibe from him, but I was a bit afraid to re-raise, knowing that the fish behind me had potential to call. In the end I elected to fold, and the fish took down the pot with A9 on an AJ7 flop. In hindsight, I wish I would have followed my read, and re-raised to 85. If called I could have played passively after the flop, and if re-raised I could easily fold.
There were a few other small wins and losses. I was definitely flopping well with my good pre-flop hands, though I wasn't hitting much on many of my speculative hands. Overall I felt I played good and controlled, and was pleased with the +400 overall result.
Interesting sidenote to the session, a guy a few tables over was selling new boxes of Titleist ProV1's for $25. I'm not sure what the story was on them, but since they are normally $40, I jumped at the opportunity to pick up a box, despite now having 3 dozen in my inventory at home.
Got to Northville at about 5:15pm after work. Table was reasonably deep stacked, with 3-4 players sitting on $400 or more, and only 1 short stack.
A good start: Immediately I get involved, 1st hand I raise up to 12 from MP with AQ, and get one of the blinds, a golfer to call, who has $300, and if I remember right is an action player. Flop is A87, he checks, I bet 15, he check raises to 30 and I call. Turn is a T, he bets 45 and I call. River is a K, which has to scare him if he has a hand like aces up, he checks, I check behind and he says he has queen high, so I am up a quick 80. I don't think betting the river is any good, as I don't see him folding any 2 pair hands, and he likely isn't calling with any 1 pair hands. My plan was to call almost all rivers, unless I picked something up on him.
Willard: Table is starting to get short (7 handed), but everyone has a stack. I am on a nice rush of cards, and raise pre-flop for the 4th straight hand, this time with AJ. I am called by the button and by Willard (tight old man who plays pretty passively, likes donk betting though, and has really had my number). Flop comes Jxx rainbow, and Willard donks 15, I call, and button folds. Turn is another low card putting 2 diamonds on board, and he bets 20, I raise to 55 and he calls. River is another low non-pairing diamond, completing the backdoor diamond draw, he checks and I decide to bet somewhat small for value, 65, and he folds QQ face-up. Says I got unlucky the diamond hit as he would have called.
Big flop, big hand: They combine tables and one of the biggest fish in the room gets moved immediately to my left, with a stack of 700. I have about 500 at this point. The hand is straddled by the button, and after 1 caller, I raise to 20 with AhTh. Fish calls and the limper folds. Flop is beautiful, Tx8h5h. I bet a little larger than normal, but probably imperceptible to him, 35, and he raises to 75. Generally in my experience he makes large bets and raises when he has nut-like hands. I make a small re-raise to 140 and he calls (in hindsight I think I should have raised a little bit more, as I would likely make a larger re-raise to 180 or so with an overpair). At the time I didn't want to fold out any draws that I dominate. The turn is another 8. I think his range is most tens, occasionally he will have an 8, sometimes J9 or even QJ, and a lot of flush draws. I was a little uneasy at the time, but I think the best play is to fire a smallish bet at the turn, maybe 125 or so. I am not folding if raised, but this way it allows him to call with hands that I want him to call with, while not allowing him to easily fold those hands. At the time though I chose checking, and he quickly checked behind. The river was a K. I checked with the intention of snap calling almost all bets, and he bet 65, which I called. He showed 6h3h. I would have gotten him for 250BB's if the heart had come.
A tough decision: Straddled pot, after a few limps I limp 8h6h, and we see a flop 5 ways. Flop is 764 with 1 heart, checks to me and I bet 15 (I had done this the previous hand in a straddled pot and took it down). Golfer on button calls (he has 600, I cover), and BB calls (he has about 325). Turn is another 6, check to me, I bet 40, button calls, and SB raises to 125, leaving himself 180-ish behind. I am pretty sure that the button is done with the hand based on my read of his range, and his demeanor after the raise. My read on him is that he was a thinking player, he was stuck about half of a buy-in, but seemed to play really straight-forward. I wasn't sure that he was capable of bluffing into two players in this spot, so I elected to fold. The button quickly folded. I told people that I folded a 6, just to try to get a response from him. Later in the night as he was racking up I asked him what he had, and he said that he was open-ended and repping the 6. I'm not sure I believe him, as most players would have taken the odds I was giving them to hit their draw (one of which would have given me a full house).
The one that got away: UTG to my right straddled, as he had done every chance he got (he was playing about 350). 2 things had happened when he straddled, the first was that I had raised it and he had folded, or after a lot of limps, he made a large re-raise. I sensed he was getting tired of me raising his straddle. I elected to call the straddle with AhQh. There were about 5 callers to him, and then he raised to 35. I was getting a little bit of a weak vibe from him, but I was a bit afraid to re-raise, knowing that the fish behind me had potential to call. In the end I elected to fold, and the fish took down the pot with A9 on an AJ7 flop. In hindsight, I wish I would have followed my read, and re-raised to 85. If called I could have played passively after the flop, and if re-raised I could easily fold.
There were a few other small wins and losses. I was definitely flopping well with my good pre-flop hands, though I wasn't hitting much on many of my speculative hands. Overall I felt I played good and controlled, and was pleased with the +400 overall result.
Interesting sidenote to the session, a guy a few tables over was selling new boxes of Titleist ProV1's for $25. I'm not sure what the story was on them, but since they are normally $40, I jumped at the opportunity to pick up a box, despite now having 3 dozen in my inventory at home.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Ending the skid
It took a few tries, but I finally ended the losing streak at Northville Downs in a big way. Here's a summary of some of the biggest hands, in what was a +550, 5 hour session.
Chop?: First hand of note, the guy from the 88 v 99 all-in preflop a few weeks ago that I lost. He is very active, always calls 3 bets, and is generally the most active at the table. After a limper, he raises to 12, and I 3 bet to 36 from the BB with AcKc. Limper folds and he calls (I am playing about 175 deep). Flop comes KTx, I bet 45 and he calls. Turn is a J, I shove and he goes into the tank, asking if I have aces. I don't even look at him and just stay fixated on the board. He folds, and claims AK. I call BS on him, reminding him about our 99v88 hand. But I muck without showing. Later on he still claimed he had AK, but whatever, glad he folded in that case.
Bad beat: A bit later I get it all-in on the flop with AxKd on a board of KxTd4d v 9d8d, and a diamond immediately turns. I miss the diamond re-draw for about a $250 pot.
Nice bluff: Limped pot, I have 76. Flop comes T73. Early limper bets 10, one caller, I call. Turn is an A, both check to me and I check behind. River 3, flop bettor bets 20. I am 100% sure he has a ten here, and after a fold, I raise to 75. He folds and shows a T.
Missed bluff: A few limps, and I limp with 75o in LP. Flop comes Ad8h4d. Active guy from first hand bets 10, I call in position, and rest fold. Turn is a 3h, now I have a double gutter. Active guy bets 20, I decide this is a good spot to raise, as I think he raises at least 80% of his aces pre-flop. I raise to 65 (which may have been a little small in retrospect). He calls suprisingly, leaving himself 110 behind. River is inconsequential, as it doesn't complete any draw, including my own. He checks, and his turn call felt too strong to me, and I pussied out and checked behind. He shows Td2d for ten high, which is good in a pot of $200.
You're all-in???: Limped pot, I have A5o in the BB. Flop AAJ. Checked around. Turn J, I check, LP bets 10 and I call. River is a 9. I check, he bets 15, I raise to 45, he jams for like 80. I call and he rolls over QJ?? Said "I just couldn't get away from that". These are the kind of people that I haven't been finding lately.
Cooler: After 2 limps, I make it 14 with AA. Tightish BB confidently raises to 35, I go into hollywood mode, and then 4 bet to 85 (with 165 behind - he covers). He confidently calls. Flop comes 943, he very confidently bets 100, and I shove and he calls. He has KK. The river is a Qd to scare the shit out of me, but I hold in a big pot.
The nuts: I think it was a straddled pot, and I saw it with QT. Flop came KJx, and one of the limpers bets 25, I have about 275 and he covers. He's proven to overplay a few hands (he called a 115 all-in after putting 20 in with 3d2d, with a player still to act and won), so I call. Turn is a beautfiul 9. He bets 25, which is disappointing. I raise to 75 and he calls. River is a total blank, and checks, and I play with chips a while and bet 120. He goes into the tank, and I try to vibe weakness. He says "either you have QT or nothing", and then he calls. Never saw what he had.
Wow: Another limped pot, I limp with 33. Flop comes 977. Checked to me, I take a stab for 10, one of the blinds call, and guy next to me calls. Turn is a 5, both check to me and I check behind. River is an interesting 3. Check to guy next to me, who is pretty bad and will call in a lot of spots where he is clearly beaten. He aggressively bets 25. I raise to 85 (opening the door to disaster), and he pretty quickly goes all-in for something like 125-130 total. I say "Oh man", or something like that, he asks if I have 9's, and then rolls over 97 without me calling. Not sure if he thought I called, or he was trying to be nice, but obviously I folded, saying I also had a full house.
Biggie: Another limped pot, I limp with 22, SB (guy who paid off my 120) raises to 9 (he has done this at least 25% of the time of late). There are 4 to the flop, and it comes 542, SB bets 19, and bad player (playing 225) from last hand VERY confidently raises to 40. I smooth call the 40 not really sure how I am going to proceed with the hand, and SB calls. Turn is a 5, filling me up. SB checks, bad player confidently bets 100. I smooth call again, and SB folds. River is a T, and he stacks the rest of his chips, puts them in his hand, and then surprisingly checks. I stick out a stack of 100, which covers him. After 10-20 seconds, he calls, and I roll over my hand and am good.
Chop?: First hand of note, the guy from the 88 v 99 all-in preflop a few weeks ago that I lost. He is very active, always calls 3 bets, and is generally the most active at the table. After a limper, he raises to 12, and I 3 bet to 36 from the BB with AcKc. Limper folds and he calls (I am playing about 175 deep). Flop comes KTx, I bet 45 and he calls. Turn is a J, I shove and he goes into the tank, asking if I have aces. I don't even look at him and just stay fixated on the board. He folds, and claims AK. I call BS on him, reminding him about our 99v88 hand. But I muck without showing. Later on he still claimed he had AK, but whatever, glad he folded in that case.
Bad beat: A bit later I get it all-in on the flop with AxKd on a board of KxTd4d v 9d8d, and a diamond immediately turns. I miss the diamond re-draw for about a $250 pot.
Nice bluff: Limped pot, I have 76. Flop comes T73. Early limper bets 10, one caller, I call. Turn is an A, both check to me and I check behind. River 3, flop bettor bets 20. I am 100% sure he has a ten here, and after a fold, I raise to 75. He folds and shows a T.
Missed bluff: A few limps, and I limp with 75o in LP. Flop comes Ad8h4d. Active guy from first hand bets 10, I call in position, and rest fold. Turn is a 3h, now I have a double gutter. Active guy bets 20, I decide this is a good spot to raise, as I think he raises at least 80% of his aces pre-flop. I raise to 65 (which may have been a little small in retrospect). He calls suprisingly, leaving himself 110 behind. River is inconsequential, as it doesn't complete any draw, including my own. He checks, and his turn call felt too strong to me, and I pussied out and checked behind. He shows Td2d for ten high, which is good in a pot of $200.
You're all-in???: Limped pot, I have A5o in the BB. Flop AAJ. Checked around. Turn J, I check, LP bets 10 and I call. River is a 9. I check, he bets 15, I raise to 45, he jams for like 80. I call and he rolls over QJ?? Said "I just couldn't get away from that". These are the kind of people that I haven't been finding lately.
Cooler: After 2 limps, I make it 14 with AA. Tightish BB confidently raises to 35, I go into hollywood mode, and then 4 bet to 85 (with 165 behind - he covers). He confidently calls. Flop comes 943, he very confidently bets 100, and I shove and he calls. He has KK. The river is a Qd to scare the shit out of me, but I hold in a big pot.
The nuts: I think it was a straddled pot, and I saw it with QT. Flop came KJx, and one of the limpers bets 25, I have about 275 and he covers. He's proven to overplay a few hands (he called a 115 all-in after putting 20 in with 3d2d, with a player still to act and won), so I call. Turn is a beautfiul 9. He bets 25, which is disappointing. I raise to 75 and he calls. River is a total blank, and checks, and I play with chips a while and bet 120. He goes into the tank, and I try to vibe weakness. He says "either you have QT or nothing", and then he calls. Never saw what he had.
Wow: Another limped pot, I limp with 33. Flop comes 977. Checked to me, I take a stab for 10, one of the blinds call, and guy next to me calls. Turn is a 5, both check to me and I check behind. River is an interesting 3. Check to guy next to me, who is pretty bad and will call in a lot of spots where he is clearly beaten. He aggressively bets 25. I raise to 85 (opening the door to disaster), and he pretty quickly goes all-in for something like 125-130 total. I say "Oh man", or something like that, he asks if I have 9's, and then rolls over 97 without me calling. Not sure if he thought I called, or he was trying to be nice, but obviously I folded, saying I also had a full house.
Biggie: Another limped pot, I limp with 22, SB (guy who paid off my 120) raises to 9 (he has done this at least 25% of the time of late). There are 4 to the flop, and it comes 542, SB bets 19, and bad player (playing 225) from last hand VERY confidently raises to 40. I smooth call the 40 not really sure how I am going to proceed with the hand, and SB calls. Turn is a 5, filling me up. SB checks, bad player confidently bets 100. I smooth call again, and SB folds. River is a T, and he stacks the rest of his chips, puts them in his hand, and then surprisingly checks. I stick out a stack of 100, which covers him. After 10-20 seconds, he calls, and I roll over my hand and am good.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Weathering the storm
I decided to go to Northville Downs for Belmont Day, primarily to see how the action was in the poker room on one of the major racing days, and a secondary goal was to avoid betting too much on horses from the comfort of my own home. Unfortunately what followed was a disaster of near epic proportions.
First on the horses, I still bet a decent amount on the early races, putting a lot of money into 2 separate races where the favorites ran well and I lost a good chunk of change. Then finally comes a race that I didn't put much into, and ends up paying over $300 for a $1 trifecta, with only horses that I liked, yet somehow I managed to miss the race. I most likely missed it because I was trying to bet horses and poker at the same time, and kept going back and forth between the table and the voucher machine.
Hand #1: Playing without a plan
It was a straddled pot to $4 by the button, and I was playing with about $325 at this point. There were at least 2 callers, so I just decided to call with 88. One more caller and then a young aggressive guy who at this point respected my game, but had been raising limpers quite liberally from late position raised to $25. The first callers folded, and when it got to me, I didn't particular like any of my options. Folding was not really an option against his range of hands, but I didn't really like calling either, and not having any initiative in the hand, as I was likely to face a sizeable flop bet, a flop which was likely to miss me. I decided to re-raise to $75, however I did this without much of a plan on what I was going to do for the rest of the hand. He pretty quickly shoved all-in for $225, leaving me with a decision. In the end I felt that his range included AK and AQ, and a few underpairs to my 8's, along with overpairs, and given that range, I felt that the pot odds justified my call. He had 99, and the board missed me. He said he was only afraid of TT and JJ as he knew I wouldn't limp a big pair behind a few limpers already. I'm not positive that's true given his penchant for raising limpers in LP, but it's a reasonable assumption.
Hand #2: Getting in against overpairs, the theme continues
Pot was straddled for $5 from the button, and after 2 callers I raised to $35 with TT. The button then shoved for $62, and I had a trivial call. He rolled over AA, and I was way behind again. Fortunately for me I flopped a T, and my hand held up for a suckout, albeit a small one.
Hand #3: A hand I wasn't involved in, but for context
There were a few limpers, and then the button, a loose spewy player raised to 15, leaving himself 65 behind. There were 2 callers, and the CO , a white haired middle aged guy who had been playing aggressively (Whitey for short) called, saying "I feel a suckout coming." Flop was 987 rainbow, and folded around to Whitey who seemingly randomly decided to bet 45. The button shoved for his 63, and then the tight player who works at the golf course smooth called the 63, leaving himself 125 behind. This looked extremely strong to me, like a set. The other limper then shoved all-in for about 200, then Whitey shoved all-in, then the golf course guy called all-in as well. They rolled the hands over and Whitey had JT for the nuts, golf course guy had T9 for a pair and open ender, and the other limper had T6 for the flopped 2nd nuts. The button didn't turn his hand over. The board ran out with a 7 and a low card, and Whitey swept the entire pot.
Hand #4: The very next hand
After 3 bustouts we are playing 6 handed. Whitey limps UTG, young guy on the button makes it 10, I 3bet to 30 with QQ (I have 3 bet the young guy a few times today), and then Whitey makes it 100 kinda forcefully. When he did this he was still stacking his chips from the previous hand. The one thing that I couldn't get past was that it didn't make sense for him to limp re-raise, especially short handed. After picking up a big pot like that, players will tend to play more loose and more aggressively, so I didn't see a good reason for why he would do that with AA or KK. I decided to shove for 250 and he went into the tank. This was immediately good news, as he obviously didn't have aces. He started saying "Why would you think so long with aces, etc....". Finally he called and rolled over KK, and I missed in the large pot.
Hand #5: Finally aces!
Here is the hand discussion on 2+2:
Relevant stacks and reads:
BB - Me (250)
SB (65) - Regular in the room, he has already dusted off 1.5 buyins with loose mostly passive play.
BTN (325) - I haven't seen him before, and he has been only at the table a few minutes. He has been running good, but I haven't seen a lot from him. From my limited experience so far, he seems slightly above average (though average is pretty bad). He looks to be of Indian descent.
An early position player limps, the button limps behind, the SB completes, and I raise to 17 with AsAc. EP folds, the Indian button calls, and the SB calls.
(Pot: 53) - Flop QdJh8d. SB shoves for his last 48. My thinking here is that I am rarely behind the SB. He likely has a Q, a pair and a draw, or just a random draw. I decide to just call, as I am not ready to commit $250 to this board. While I feel this is exploitable by a good player, I felt that the only way the Indian raises me is if he has me beat. I'm ok with giving him the 3-1 odds he is getting for a draw at this point. My plan is to shove a "blank" turn.
(Pot: 188) - Turn Tc. I check, and button bets 100. I disgustingly fold and the SB rolls over Td4d for a draw, and the Indian has J9 for the turned straight.
The river is a Ks, giving me what would have been the nuts for a nice kick in the dick.
Hand #6: The final insult
Despite all of the above, I still feel like I was playing alright, so I rebought up to $200. I limped 76 in EP, and we saw a family flop. Flop was A63 rainbow. It's checked around to the young kid in the CO bets 15, the Indian again the button calls, and it comes to me. I am pretty sure I am beat here, and while I could call and draw for my 2 pair or trips, the two pair fills a 54 draw. I believe the CO would have raised with any ace here, so I am not giving him credit for anything. I think the button likely has a weak ace. I decide to check raise to 65, as this is how I would play a two pair type hand. The CO folds as expected and the Indian calls after thinking for a few seconds. The turn is a J, and I decide I have to follow through now. I shove for 135 and he tanks for about 30 seconds and calls. I miss on the river and roll over my cards, and he turns over A9. I didn't he was good, but I sure didn't think he would call that much with a marginal ace. The funny thing is that if I play the hand in that manner, I have the best hand 90% of the time, yet he managed to find the 10% (or less) time that I didn't have the best hand.
So another 3+ buy-in loss. Coupled with a 3 buy-in loss 2 sessions ago, which sandwiched a 1 buy-in win, and I am on a bit of a cold streak. My hourly rate is still clicking at about $40 per hour for the last 7.5 months, but this was certainly a painful day.
First on the horses, I still bet a decent amount on the early races, putting a lot of money into 2 separate races where the favorites ran well and I lost a good chunk of change. Then finally comes a race that I didn't put much into, and ends up paying over $300 for a $1 trifecta, with only horses that I liked, yet somehow I managed to miss the race. I most likely missed it because I was trying to bet horses and poker at the same time, and kept going back and forth between the table and the voucher machine.
Hand #1: Playing without a plan
It was a straddled pot to $4 by the button, and I was playing with about $325 at this point. There were at least 2 callers, so I just decided to call with 88. One more caller and then a young aggressive guy who at this point respected my game, but had been raising limpers quite liberally from late position raised to $25. The first callers folded, and when it got to me, I didn't particular like any of my options. Folding was not really an option against his range of hands, but I didn't really like calling either, and not having any initiative in the hand, as I was likely to face a sizeable flop bet, a flop which was likely to miss me. I decided to re-raise to $75, however I did this without much of a plan on what I was going to do for the rest of the hand. He pretty quickly shoved all-in for $225, leaving me with a decision. In the end I felt that his range included AK and AQ, and a few underpairs to my 8's, along with overpairs, and given that range, I felt that the pot odds justified my call. He had 99, and the board missed me. He said he was only afraid of TT and JJ as he knew I wouldn't limp a big pair behind a few limpers already. I'm not positive that's true given his penchant for raising limpers in LP, but it's a reasonable assumption.
Hand #2: Getting in against overpairs, the theme continues
Pot was straddled for $5 from the button, and after 2 callers I raised to $35 with TT. The button then shoved for $62, and I had a trivial call. He rolled over AA, and I was way behind again. Fortunately for me I flopped a T, and my hand held up for a suckout, albeit a small one.
Hand #3: A hand I wasn't involved in, but for context
There were a few limpers, and then the button, a loose spewy player raised to 15, leaving himself 65 behind. There were 2 callers, and the CO , a white haired middle aged guy who had been playing aggressively (Whitey for short) called, saying "I feel a suckout coming." Flop was 987 rainbow, and folded around to Whitey who seemingly randomly decided to bet 45. The button shoved for his 63, and then the tight player who works at the golf course smooth called the 63, leaving himself 125 behind. This looked extremely strong to me, like a set. The other limper then shoved all-in for about 200, then Whitey shoved all-in, then the golf course guy called all-in as well. They rolled the hands over and Whitey had JT for the nuts, golf course guy had T9 for a pair and open ender, and the other limper had T6 for the flopped 2nd nuts. The button didn't turn his hand over. The board ran out with a 7 and a low card, and Whitey swept the entire pot.
Hand #4: The very next hand
After 3 bustouts we are playing 6 handed. Whitey limps UTG, young guy on the button makes it 10, I 3bet to 30 with QQ (I have 3 bet the young guy a few times today), and then Whitey makes it 100 kinda forcefully. When he did this he was still stacking his chips from the previous hand. The one thing that I couldn't get past was that it didn't make sense for him to limp re-raise, especially short handed. After picking up a big pot like that, players will tend to play more loose and more aggressively, so I didn't see a good reason for why he would do that with AA or KK. I decided to shove for 250 and he went into the tank. This was immediately good news, as he obviously didn't have aces. He started saying "Why would you think so long with aces, etc....". Finally he called and rolled over KK, and I missed in the large pot.
Hand #5: Finally aces!
Here is the hand discussion on 2+2:
Relevant stacks and reads:
BB - Me (250)
SB (65) - Regular in the room, he has already dusted off 1.5 buyins with loose mostly passive play.
BTN (325) - I haven't seen him before, and he has been only at the table a few minutes. He has been running good, but I haven't seen a lot from him. From my limited experience so far, he seems slightly above average (though average is pretty bad). He looks to be of Indian descent.
An early position player limps, the button limps behind, the SB completes, and I raise to 17 with AsAc. EP folds, the Indian button calls, and the SB calls.
(Pot: 53) - Flop QdJh8d. SB shoves for his last 48. My thinking here is that I am rarely behind the SB. He likely has a Q, a pair and a draw, or just a random draw. I decide to just call, as I am not ready to commit $250 to this board. While I feel this is exploitable by a good player, I felt that the only way the Indian raises me is if he has me beat. I'm ok with giving him the 3-1 odds he is getting for a draw at this point. My plan is to shove a "blank" turn.
(Pot: 188) - Turn Tc. I check, and button bets 100. I disgustingly fold and the SB rolls over Td4d for a draw, and the Indian has J9 for the turned straight.
The river is a Ks, giving me what would have been the nuts for a nice kick in the dick.
Hand #6: The final insult
Despite all of the above, I still feel like I was playing alright, so I rebought up to $200. I limped 76 in EP, and we saw a family flop. Flop was A63 rainbow. It's checked around to the young kid in the CO bets 15, the Indian again the button calls, and it comes to me. I am pretty sure I am beat here, and while I could call and draw for my 2 pair or trips, the two pair fills a 54 draw. I believe the CO would have raised with any ace here, so I am not giving him credit for anything. I think the button likely has a weak ace. I decide to check raise to 65, as this is how I would play a two pair type hand. The CO folds as expected and the Indian calls after thinking for a few seconds. The turn is a J, and I decide I have to follow through now. I shove for 135 and he tanks for about 30 seconds and calls. I miss on the river and roll over my cards, and he turns over A9. I didn't he was good, but I sure didn't think he would call that much with a marginal ace. The funny thing is that if I play the hand in that manner, I have the best hand 90% of the time, yet he managed to find the 10% (or less) time that I didn't have the best hand.
So another 3+ buy-in loss. Coupled with a 3 buy-in loss 2 sessions ago, which sandwiched a 1 buy-in win, and I am on a bit of a cold streak. My hourly rate is still clicking at about $40 per hour for the last 7.5 months, but this was certainly a painful day.
Thursday, June 09, 2011
A quick winning session
I played a short session, almost 2 hours in the end, at Northville Downs before Christina's rehearsal dinner. The hope was to make a small recovery from my brutal previous session. As I sat down, the guy directly to my right was shipping a big pot to the guy to my left, saying he didn't notice the flush draw getting there, or something to that effect. So my first hand I am in MP, and after one limper for 2, the guy to my right shoves for 42. I have AA and smooth call, and folds to the limper who calls (young early to mid 20's guy who I think I have seen before). Flop comes 544, and the limper checks blind to me. I bet 55 and he folds JJ face up. The board runs out with another 4 and I take the pot of about 125 for an early $80 profit.
A bit later, the tables have combined and there is a total maniac to my left. He has just lost a huge pot with AA v JJ where a J hit on the river, and he is fairly steamed. I limp in EP with QJo, and the maniac raises to 15, there are 3 callers and I call closing the action. Flop is QhQx8h, and I check, the maniac disappointingly checks, and the button (young fat guy who is friends with the young guy in the first hand) bets 20. Folds to me and I make a very small raise to 50, in an attempt to look as bluffy as possible, also because I think calling there screams strength. The maniac folds and the button calls. At this point I am slightly afraid that I am trailing, but I plan on making a large bet on any non heart turn. The turn is a black 6, and I put out a stack of 100 (he has 114 left). He tanks for 30 seconds or so and then shoves. I call, and the river is another 6. I table QJ and he shows JJ, to be drawing stone cold dead.
After losing a few hands with preflop raises and failed continuation bets, I play a hand where I end up in an interesting spot due to playing a hand in a manner unorthodox for me. After a few limpers I limp along with 99 (I had raised in a spot similar to this a few hands ago with TT, and folded on a AJ7 flop to the maniacs A2 and the young kids AJ). Surprisingly the maniac limps along instead of raising, and we see a flop 6-7 ways. Flop is 6d5x2d. After a few checks I elect to check, and the maniac bets 25 (has about 175 behind). Folds to Willard (old tight man who will call a lot of smaller bets with draws, and never bluffs) and he calls. I decide to call and see how the turn plays out. The turn is beautiful for me, as it's the 9h. Willard and I both check, and the maniac bets 60. Willard folds what I later find out is diamonds, which makes my decision a lot easier, and I shove for 150-160 now. The maniac asks me if I show if he folds and I shake my head no, and then he surprisingly mucks. He says "Two pair no good?" to which I reply "You didn't have 2 pair." He insists that he did, but I know better, as I have seen him call large bets with merely top pair already, and he definitely calls with 2 pair having invested half of his stack thus far.
A few hands later he busts out, and the table immediately becomes worse. At that point I get the text that everyone is on their way to dinner, so I cash out up slightly more than a buy-in. I wasn't totally satisfied with my play, but having a maniac directly to my left didn't allow me to play my normal game. But a win is a win and I will take it.
A bit later, the tables have combined and there is a total maniac to my left. He has just lost a huge pot with AA v JJ where a J hit on the river, and he is fairly steamed. I limp in EP with QJo, and the maniac raises to 15, there are 3 callers and I call closing the action. Flop is QhQx8h, and I check, the maniac disappointingly checks, and the button (young fat guy who is friends with the young guy in the first hand) bets 20. Folds to me and I make a very small raise to 50, in an attempt to look as bluffy as possible, also because I think calling there screams strength. The maniac folds and the button calls. At this point I am slightly afraid that I am trailing, but I plan on making a large bet on any non heart turn. The turn is a black 6, and I put out a stack of 100 (he has 114 left). He tanks for 30 seconds or so and then shoves. I call, and the river is another 6. I table QJ and he shows JJ, to be drawing stone cold dead.
After losing a few hands with preflop raises and failed continuation bets, I play a hand where I end up in an interesting spot due to playing a hand in a manner unorthodox for me. After a few limpers I limp along with 99 (I had raised in a spot similar to this a few hands ago with TT, and folded on a AJ7 flop to the maniacs A2 and the young kids AJ). Surprisingly the maniac limps along instead of raising, and we see a flop 6-7 ways. Flop is 6d5x2d. After a few checks I elect to check, and the maniac bets 25 (has about 175 behind). Folds to Willard (old tight man who will call a lot of smaller bets with draws, and never bluffs) and he calls. I decide to call and see how the turn plays out. The turn is beautiful for me, as it's the 9h. Willard and I both check, and the maniac bets 60. Willard folds what I later find out is diamonds, which makes my decision a lot easier, and I shove for 150-160 now. The maniac asks me if I show if he folds and I shake my head no, and then he surprisingly mucks. He says "Two pair no good?" to which I reply "You didn't have 2 pair." He insists that he did, but I know better, as I have seen him call large bets with merely top pair already, and he definitely calls with 2 pair having invested half of his stack thus far.
A few hands later he busts out, and the table immediately becomes worse. At that point I get the text that everyone is on their way to dinner, so I cash out up slightly more than a buy-in. I wasn't totally satisfied with my play, but having a maniac directly to my left didn't allow me to play my normal game. But a win is a win and I will take it.
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Belmont Stakes preview
1. Master of Hounds, Garrett Gomez, 10-1
I kinda liked him going into the Derby, and he should like the added distance. In his earlier races he showed the ability to track the pace a little closer, which he may need to do here. I like him for a piece of the pie, and will play on top on backup tickets.
2. Stay Thirsty, Javier Castellano, 20-1
Regally bred, but thus far that's the only thing to like about him. Belmont is his home track, but the simple truth is that he isn't as fast as a lot of these horses thus far. Have to toss.
3. Ruler On Ice, Jose Valdivia Jr., 20-1
Toss
4. Santiva, Shaun Bridgmohan, 15-1
Liked a bit in the Derby and ran well. Probably can only play for 3rd here.
5. Brilliant Speed, Joel Rosario, 15-1
Ran well in the Derby, but he was behind 6 horses that are running in Belmont. Had some traffic trouble which could account for a few lengths. I like for 3rd at best here.
6. Nehro, Corey Nakatani, 4-1
Something tells me that he isn't going to finish better than 3rd here. He was very flat coming down the lane in the Derby, and he got a very good trip. He does have a lot of stamina in his pedigree from Mineshaft and AP Indy, but like I said, I just have a hunch. He doesn't like to win, but does seem to give an honest effort.
7. Monzon, Jose Lezcano, 30-1
Barf
8. Prime Cut, Edgar Prado, 15-1
May be a slight pace factor, but I think the distance will be his undoing. May play on bottom of backup tickets.
9. Animal Kingdom, John Velazquez, 2-1
Had a great workout the other day, and has given me no reason to not like him. He is the horse to key on (can't believe I was too stupid to do that in the Preakness0.
10. Mucho Macho Man, Ramon Dominguez, 10-1
He always seems to run into trouble, and am concerned that this campaign is taking a lot out of him. BUT.....at 10-1 he is certainly value. The distance may be a bit much for him, but his speed figures are competitive and he always gives it an honest try.
11. Isn't He Perfect, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1
Double barf. Didn't they learn enough in the Preakness?
12. Shackleford, Jesus Castanon, 9-2
Outside post will not hurt him. The lack of early speed in this race should allow him to dictate things similar to how he did in the Derby. He is game as hell, but I just think the Belmont is going to be too far for him, regardless of the fractions he sets (he seems to go best when gunning through fast fractions anyways, like in the Preakness). Going to take a stand and pass on him.
Predicted order of finish:
1st - Animal Kingdom
2nd - Master of Hounds
3rd - Mucho Macho Man
4th - Brilliant Speed
I kinda liked him going into the Derby, and he should like the added distance. In his earlier races he showed the ability to track the pace a little closer, which he may need to do here. I like him for a piece of the pie, and will play on top on backup tickets.
2. Stay Thirsty, Javier Castellano, 20-1
Regally bred, but thus far that's the only thing to like about him. Belmont is his home track, but the simple truth is that he isn't as fast as a lot of these horses thus far. Have to toss.
3. Ruler On Ice, Jose Valdivia Jr., 20-1
Toss
4. Santiva, Shaun Bridgmohan, 15-1
Liked a bit in the Derby and ran well. Probably can only play for 3rd here.
5. Brilliant Speed, Joel Rosario, 15-1
Ran well in the Derby, but he was behind 6 horses that are running in Belmont. Had some traffic trouble which could account for a few lengths. I like for 3rd at best here.
6. Nehro, Corey Nakatani, 4-1
Something tells me that he isn't going to finish better than 3rd here. He was very flat coming down the lane in the Derby, and he got a very good trip. He does have a lot of stamina in his pedigree from Mineshaft and AP Indy, but like I said, I just have a hunch. He doesn't like to win, but does seem to give an honest effort.
7. Monzon, Jose Lezcano, 30-1
Barf
8. Prime Cut, Edgar Prado, 15-1
May be a slight pace factor, but I think the distance will be his undoing. May play on bottom of backup tickets.
9. Animal Kingdom, John Velazquez, 2-1
Had a great workout the other day, and has given me no reason to not like him. He is the horse to key on (can't believe I was too stupid to do that in the Preakness0.
10. Mucho Macho Man, Ramon Dominguez, 10-1
He always seems to run into trouble, and am concerned that this campaign is taking a lot out of him. BUT.....at 10-1 he is certainly value. The distance may be a bit much for him, but his speed figures are competitive and he always gives it an honest try.
11. Isn't He Perfect, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1
Double barf. Didn't they learn enough in the Preakness?
12. Shackleford, Jesus Castanon, 9-2
Outside post will not hurt him. The lack of early speed in this race should allow him to dictate things similar to how he did in the Derby. He is game as hell, but I just think the Belmont is going to be too far for him, regardless of the fractions he sets (he seems to go best when gunning through fast fractions anyways, like in the Preakness). Going to take a stand and pass on him.
Predicted order of finish:
1st - Animal Kingdom
2nd - Master of Hounds
3rd - Mucho Macho Man
4th - Brilliant Speed
Monday, June 06, 2011
A bad session
I headed up to Northville Downs on Saturday night for a brief session, sitting down at about 10pm. I sat down brimming with confidence, knowing that I was one of the best players there, reinforced first by my own observation, and second from the results of my 30 or so sessions I have played there since November. Unfortunately, it was one of those sessions when from the start, nothing seemed to be going right.
When I first sat down, it was hard to ignore the huge stack of chips in front of the 22 year old kid 3 seats to my right. I estimated it to be about $1800, which is a ton in a $200 buy-in game. I was curious to see if it was because he was running great, or playing phenomenally.
I got a chance to see in one of my very first hands. He limped along with another limper, and I made it 14 with KhKd. Folds back to him and he is the only caller. Flop comes TT5 with 2 clubs, and he checks, and I make a relatively small continuation bet of 20, and he calls. The turn is a 7h, he checks, and I check behind for pot control. The river is a 6c, pretty much a terrible card as it completes the flush draw. He confidently leads out 40, and even though I think this is ordinarily a fold, as I don't beat much that would have called that flop, aside from random pairs that didn't believe me on the flop, I decided to call. But then again he is a young kid with a massive stack, so I'm guessing he thinks he can outplay anyone and feels pretty invincible at this point. Based on that, and his likelihood to believe by checking the turn, I called and he showed 66 for the rivered full house.
That put me in an early hole, but I rebought up to the max. I lost a few more pots, and continued to rebuy until I was in for 400 when this hand came up. A few limpers to me and I had ATo in LP, I elected to limp behind as I had been fairly active pre-flop, and felt I was likely to get multiple callers unless I made a giant raise. The flop came AT6r, and the SB led for 8, the guy directly to my right called (playing about 120), and I raised to 28. SB folded and guy to my right called. The turn was a 4, and he led into me for 40. I basically shoved and he called, and rolled over A7 to be drawing completely dead. When he got up to rebuy, the dealer asked me if we had played a lot before, saying that he never sees him get out of line like that. I told him I didn't recall very much history at all between us. This hand got me back to a point where I was down only $50 or so.
A short time later, I was in a large limped pot with 87o, in mid to late position. Flop is JT9, so I flopped the idiot end of the straight. The BB led out 10, there was 1 caller, and I elected to play small ball at this point and called. The SB called as well. The turn was a low blank, and the BB led out 20 this time, again I called, and the SB came along as well ( he only was playing about 100 before the hand started). I realized that I was allowing people with an open ended draw to come along cheap, but I wasn't positive I was ahead of the BB at this point. The river was a 7, making anybody with an 8 the straight. The BB again led, this time leading for 50. His sudden switch to a larger bet, after a bad river card, had me starting to believe that I was behind. But since I played the hand like a calling station to that point, I decided to follow through and complete that plan and called. The SB called as well and the BB rolled over KQ for the nuts. The SB apparently also had 87.
After a stretch, I finally got a chance to play a hand with the table maniac. He had been playing big pots with relatively weak hands the whole night, and I was chomping at the bit to play a biggie with him. He also had just lost a big pot, and I believed he was on the verge of tilting. He was the kind of player who rarely knows when it's his turn to act, didn't really understand the concept of the button straddle, and had shown a large bluff or two to this point. He opened in EP to 10, and after 2 callers, I called with 3d2d from the button. We saw the flop 5 handed, and it came down T54, given me a reasonably hidden OESD. Maniac bet 30, I called, primarily because I wanted to see if someone behind me woke up with a big hand, and also because I didn't think the maniac would fold any pairs in this spot. The rest of the players folded and the turn was a 2, giving me a pair with my draw. The maniac then shoved for 114. My initial inclination was to call, but I sat tight and wanted to observe his behavior. He seemed a little agitated, and I saw him swallow a big gulp in his throat, which is normally an indicator of a player who doesn't want a call. He also began talking a lot, completely unsolicited by me or anybody else. He yelled to the bar to bring him a beer, and generally his behavior just seemed uncomfortable. Putting all of it together, I elected to call. He rolled over T9 for TPNK, and I missed the river and quietly mucked my cards. So I believe I was right in my read that he was weak, but not as weak as I had hoped or needed, as I really believed he had two big cards, including an ace, and felt that he was really only drawing to 3 outs as an ace would have made my straight. In any case, I had a 30% chance of winning the pot after the turn, so it wasn't a completely dire situation, but it didn't work out.
They combine tables as a few are getting shorter, when this hand comes up. I open UTG to 8 with 5d4d, and I believe 4 players go to the flop. Flop is AQT with diamond, and I make a continuation bet of 20 at the pot and a semi-regular calls in position. I don't have any real history with him, but I don't fear him. I am done with the hand until an interesting turn card comes, the Kd. I think for about 10 seconds and bet 40, as I have a diamond draw now, and also the 4 card straight may scare my opponent. He thinks for about 20 seconds and calls. The river is the 6c....meaning I am playing the board. I think the regular has at least 1 pair, maybe 2 pair, but definitely not a straight, so I debate the best way to try to win the pot. I debate the merits of a large bet, and decide he may call bullshit with that line, so I settle on what looks like a small "value" bet, and bet out 50. He thinks for nearly a minute and then decides to call, I roll over my 5 high, and he turns over QT for a flopped 2 pair. I chalk him up as a guy who doesn't like to fold marginal hands.
Finally though, the crown jewel for the night. We are playing 6 handed, and I have about 260 in my stack, with both villians covering. I straddle button for 5. SB (the reg from the previous QT hand) raises to 10, BB calls, 2 others call, I call with 55. Flop Ks5h3d. Pot is 50, SB checks, BB bets 25, fold to me, I call, SB calls. Turn Ks5h3d(Js). Pot is 125. Checks to me, I make a weak bet of 45 as I don't think anyone is very strong at all, and I'm not really worried about being run down either. River Ks5h3dJs(Jc). Pot is 260, checks to me, I have 160 left, but think a shove looks too strong. I settle on betting 110. SB is debating for a while, but I think he's going to fold. Both of them have a recent history with me of me showing down bluffs or not very strong hands. After about a minute SB declares "All-in", and BB folds. I am a little shocked now, but with only 50 left, I call and he rolls over KK! I am absolutely shocked that he checked 3 streets there, I was 100% sure that I was winning that pot.
One of the more painful aspects of that hand was at the end of it, the guy who won the pot looked so smug, like he had just made a dynamite play to get my stack, when in reality he would have had my whole stack at any point, and he actually played the hand in the only way possible where he may not have gotten it all.
Obviously chalk the last hand up to a cooler and move on, but I find after a losing session I always have a slight tinge of fear and bankroll concerns. Even though I can handle a few losses like this, the doubt and fear is creeping in there. I realize that losing sessions are a natural part of the game, but this is my largest loss in this game since I have began keeping meticulous records. Maybe it's because the losing sessions have been so infrequent, that it makes it feel worse. But in any case, I need to get back in there asap, and play my A game and have a winning session to turn things back around.
When I first sat down, it was hard to ignore the huge stack of chips in front of the 22 year old kid 3 seats to my right. I estimated it to be about $1800, which is a ton in a $200 buy-in game. I was curious to see if it was because he was running great, or playing phenomenally.
I got a chance to see in one of my very first hands. He limped along with another limper, and I made it 14 with KhKd. Folds back to him and he is the only caller. Flop comes TT5 with 2 clubs, and he checks, and I make a relatively small continuation bet of 20, and he calls. The turn is a 7h, he checks, and I check behind for pot control. The river is a 6c, pretty much a terrible card as it completes the flush draw. He confidently leads out 40, and even though I think this is ordinarily a fold, as I don't beat much that would have called that flop, aside from random pairs that didn't believe me on the flop, I decided to call. But then again he is a young kid with a massive stack, so I'm guessing he thinks he can outplay anyone and feels pretty invincible at this point. Based on that, and his likelihood to believe by checking the turn, I called and he showed 66 for the rivered full house.
That put me in an early hole, but I rebought up to the max. I lost a few more pots, and continued to rebuy until I was in for 400 when this hand came up. A few limpers to me and I had ATo in LP, I elected to limp behind as I had been fairly active pre-flop, and felt I was likely to get multiple callers unless I made a giant raise. The flop came AT6r, and the SB led for 8, the guy directly to my right called (playing about 120), and I raised to 28. SB folded and guy to my right called. The turn was a 4, and he led into me for 40. I basically shoved and he called, and rolled over A7 to be drawing completely dead. When he got up to rebuy, the dealer asked me if we had played a lot before, saying that he never sees him get out of line like that. I told him I didn't recall very much history at all between us. This hand got me back to a point where I was down only $50 or so.
A short time later, I was in a large limped pot with 87o, in mid to late position. Flop is JT9, so I flopped the idiot end of the straight. The BB led out 10, there was 1 caller, and I elected to play small ball at this point and called. The SB called as well. The turn was a low blank, and the BB led out 20 this time, again I called, and the SB came along as well ( he only was playing about 100 before the hand started). I realized that I was allowing people with an open ended draw to come along cheap, but I wasn't positive I was ahead of the BB at this point. The river was a 7, making anybody with an 8 the straight. The BB again led, this time leading for 50. His sudden switch to a larger bet, after a bad river card, had me starting to believe that I was behind. But since I played the hand like a calling station to that point, I decided to follow through and complete that plan and called. The SB called as well and the BB rolled over KQ for the nuts. The SB apparently also had 87.
After a stretch, I finally got a chance to play a hand with the table maniac. He had been playing big pots with relatively weak hands the whole night, and I was chomping at the bit to play a biggie with him. He also had just lost a big pot, and I believed he was on the verge of tilting. He was the kind of player who rarely knows when it's his turn to act, didn't really understand the concept of the button straddle, and had shown a large bluff or two to this point. He opened in EP to 10, and after 2 callers, I called with 3d2d from the button. We saw the flop 5 handed, and it came down T54, given me a reasonably hidden OESD. Maniac bet 30, I called, primarily because I wanted to see if someone behind me woke up with a big hand, and also because I didn't think the maniac would fold any pairs in this spot. The rest of the players folded and the turn was a 2, giving me a pair with my draw. The maniac then shoved for 114. My initial inclination was to call, but I sat tight and wanted to observe his behavior. He seemed a little agitated, and I saw him swallow a big gulp in his throat, which is normally an indicator of a player who doesn't want a call. He also began talking a lot, completely unsolicited by me or anybody else. He yelled to the bar to bring him a beer, and generally his behavior just seemed uncomfortable. Putting all of it together, I elected to call. He rolled over T9 for TPNK, and I missed the river and quietly mucked my cards. So I believe I was right in my read that he was weak, but not as weak as I had hoped or needed, as I really believed he had two big cards, including an ace, and felt that he was really only drawing to 3 outs as an ace would have made my straight. In any case, I had a 30% chance of winning the pot after the turn, so it wasn't a completely dire situation, but it didn't work out.
They combine tables as a few are getting shorter, when this hand comes up. I open UTG to 8 with 5d4d, and I believe 4 players go to the flop. Flop is AQT with diamond, and I make a continuation bet of 20 at the pot and a semi-regular calls in position. I don't have any real history with him, but I don't fear him. I am done with the hand until an interesting turn card comes, the Kd. I think for about 10 seconds and bet 40, as I have a diamond draw now, and also the 4 card straight may scare my opponent. He thinks for about 20 seconds and calls. The river is the 6c....meaning I am playing the board. I think the regular has at least 1 pair, maybe 2 pair, but definitely not a straight, so I debate the best way to try to win the pot. I debate the merits of a large bet, and decide he may call bullshit with that line, so I settle on what looks like a small "value" bet, and bet out 50. He thinks for nearly a minute and then decides to call, I roll over my 5 high, and he turns over QT for a flopped 2 pair. I chalk him up as a guy who doesn't like to fold marginal hands.
Finally though, the crown jewel for the night. We are playing 6 handed, and I have about 260 in my stack, with both villians covering. I straddle button for 5. SB (the reg from the previous QT hand) raises to 10, BB calls, 2 others call, I call with 55. Flop Ks5h3d. Pot is 50, SB checks, BB bets 25, fold to me, I call, SB calls. Turn Ks5h3d(Js). Pot is 125. Checks to me, I make a weak bet of 45 as I don't think anyone is very strong at all, and I'm not really worried about being run down either. River Ks5h3dJs(Jc). Pot is 260, checks to me, I have 160 left, but think a shove looks too strong. I settle on betting 110. SB is debating for a while, but I think he's going to fold. Both of them have a recent history with me of me showing down bluffs or not very strong hands. After about a minute SB declares "All-in", and BB folds. I am a little shocked now, but with only 50 left, I call and he rolls over KK! I am absolutely shocked that he checked 3 streets there, I was 100% sure that I was winning that pot.
One of the more painful aspects of that hand was at the end of it, the guy who won the pot looked so smug, like he had just made a dynamite play to get my stack, when in reality he would have had my whole stack at any point, and he actually played the hand in the only way possible where he may not have gotten it all.
Obviously chalk the last hand up to a cooler and move on, but I find after a losing session I always have a slight tinge of fear and bankroll concerns. Even though I can handle a few losses like this, the doubt and fear is creeping in there. I realize that losing sessions are a natural part of the game, but this is my largest loss in this game since I have began keeping meticulous records. Maybe it's because the losing sessions have been so infrequent, that it makes it feel worse. But in any case, I need to get back in there asap, and play my A game and have a winning session to turn things back around.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
2011 Preakness analysis
1. Astrology – I was reasonably impressed with his effort in his last 2 races from a visual standpoint, even though the speed figures were a little light. I could see him running a big race and finishing somewhere in the superfecta, but I don’t really see him as a likely winner.
2. Norman Asbjornson – Best figure was an 87 in a dull Wood Memorial. Running style suggests he may be reasonably close to a fast pace. Probably play for 4th if at all.
3. King Congie – A lot will play the Robbie Albarado revenge line, but I don’t buy that as even an issue. If his horse has it, Albarado would love to win, no matter what happened 2 weeks ago. The simple truth is that I don’t really like him. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will like more distance, his 3rd in a weirdly run Blue Grass wasn’t flattered by Brilliant Speed and Twinspired performances in the Derby. 3rd or 4th at best, and even then not strongly.
4. Flashpoint – Looks to be some quality speed, but his pedigree is ALL sprinter. His 102 speed figure in the Hutcheson was huge, but it was only 7F, and played right into the track bias at Gulfstream. He couldn’t keep up with Shackleford in the Florida Derby, who I also consider an outsider here. Will be a pace factor, and may have to play him the back half of tickets strictly because of that, but I lean towards a pass.
5. Shackleford – This horse is game and tough, and I have somehow bet on all of his races this year, despite very limited betting by me. He couldn’t hold on late in the Florida Derby despite running with the track bias, and he couldn’t hold on for more than 4th in the Kentucky Derby, despite getting everything his own way. With Flashpoint, as well as some other speed in this race, and the speedy nature of Pimlico, I don’t see him getting anywhere near as good of a trip, so he is a toss for me.
6. Sway Away – I really like him, and would be shocked if he goes off at anything above 10-1, let alone 15-1. His sire won the Preakness and Belmont, so distance isn’t a concern, and he should get a legit pace to run at.
7. Midnight Interlude – I’ve decided this horse is a phony. He had no real excuse in the Derby, aside from not liking the crowds (Pimlico is no picnic either). The Santa Anita Derby field he beat was beyond weak, so I think I will pass entirely on him.
8. Dance City – Think he may be the front runner that hangs on for a piece, potentially a large piece. Should get a nice stalking trip just off the leaders. The only concern is that his pedigree is full of sprinters, but he has hung on well in all of his races.
9. Mucho Macho Man – The bad news is that everyone likes him, and he will probably be lower than 6-1. The good news is that he is clearly the best to 2nd best horse in this field, and was running well late in the Derby. All indications are that he is training up very well also. Definite win candidate.
10. Dialed In - I don’t like his figures, I don’t like his running style considering the pace isn't going to be fast, he hasn’t beaten anybody, and he will likely deal with a lot of traffic problems. Sound familiar? That’s what I said before the Derby. I STILL don’t like his figures, his running style is still a negative due to the shorter distance, though he should get a legit pace to run at. I’m also not a big Leparoux fan. Stands to get a big bonus for winning, but I think you should put that out of your head, he simply isn’t good enough right now. You can count him to give a decent effort, but I really don’t see better than 3rd out of him.
11. Animal Kingdom – Forget the fact that I may be biased because of my fondness for his Derby effort, but what’s not to like (aside from the price). He was MUCH the best in the Derby, despite closing into slow fractions. None of the horses he beat had any excuse. His Beyer pattern is continually increasing, and though some would say a bounce is expected, we are just starting to see how good he may be. The choice to win again, and head to Belmont looking for a triple crown.
12. Isn’t He Pefect – He isn’t perfect, not even close, and really doesn’t belong in this race. The only factor he could possibly have is that he breaks next to Animal Kingdom and could cause him trouble out of the gate.
13. Concealed Identity – Sire won the Preakness, and he is 2 for 2 at Pimlico. His speed figures are light, but there always seems to be one horse to crash the party, he may be my choice to do it in 3rd or 4th at 30-1.
14. Mr. Commons – Pretty well bred (for turf), and overall I like the way he looks, but he is also coming out of that weak Santa Anita Derby, and breaking from the 14 post with his running style suggests he will be 4 wide on the first turn, which I think will be too much to overcome. Bottom of tickets if at all.
Predicted order of finish:
1st – Animal Kingdom
2nd – Sway Away
3rd – Mucho Macho Man
4th – Astrology
2. Norman Asbjornson – Best figure was an 87 in a dull Wood Memorial. Running style suggests he may be reasonably close to a fast pace. Probably play for 4th if at all.
3. King Congie – A lot will play the Robbie Albarado revenge line, but I don’t buy that as even an issue. If his horse has it, Albarado would love to win, no matter what happened 2 weeks ago. The simple truth is that I don’t really like him. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will like more distance, his 3rd in a weirdly run Blue Grass wasn’t flattered by Brilliant Speed and Twinspired performances in the Derby. 3rd or 4th at best, and even then not strongly.
4. Flashpoint – Looks to be some quality speed, but his pedigree is ALL sprinter. His 102 speed figure in the Hutcheson was huge, but it was only 7F, and played right into the track bias at Gulfstream. He couldn’t keep up with Shackleford in the Florida Derby, who I also consider an outsider here. Will be a pace factor, and may have to play him the back half of tickets strictly because of that, but I lean towards a pass.
5. Shackleford – This horse is game and tough, and I have somehow bet on all of his races this year, despite very limited betting by me. He couldn’t hold on late in the Florida Derby despite running with the track bias, and he couldn’t hold on for more than 4th in the Kentucky Derby, despite getting everything his own way. With Flashpoint, as well as some other speed in this race, and the speedy nature of Pimlico, I don’t see him getting anywhere near as good of a trip, so he is a toss for me.
6. Sway Away – I really like him, and would be shocked if he goes off at anything above 10-1, let alone 15-1. His sire won the Preakness and Belmont, so distance isn’t a concern, and he should get a legit pace to run at.
7. Midnight Interlude – I’ve decided this horse is a phony. He had no real excuse in the Derby, aside from not liking the crowds (Pimlico is no picnic either). The Santa Anita Derby field he beat was beyond weak, so I think I will pass entirely on him.
8. Dance City – Think he may be the front runner that hangs on for a piece, potentially a large piece. Should get a nice stalking trip just off the leaders. The only concern is that his pedigree is full of sprinters, but he has hung on well in all of his races.
9. Mucho Macho Man – The bad news is that everyone likes him, and he will probably be lower than 6-1. The good news is that he is clearly the best to 2nd best horse in this field, and was running well late in the Derby. All indications are that he is training up very well also. Definite win candidate.
10. Dialed In - I don’t like his figures, I don’t like his running style considering the pace isn't going to be fast, he hasn’t beaten anybody, and he will likely deal with a lot of traffic problems. Sound familiar? That’s what I said before the Derby. I STILL don’t like his figures, his running style is still a negative due to the shorter distance, though he should get a legit pace to run at. I’m also not a big Leparoux fan. Stands to get a big bonus for winning, but I think you should put that out of your head, he simply isn’t good enough right now. You can count him to give a decent effort, but I really don’t see better than 3rd out of him.
11. Animal Kingdom – Forget the fact that I may be biased because of my fondness for his Derby effort, but what’s not to like (aside from the price). He was MUCH the best in the Derby, despite closing into slow fractions. None of the horses he beat had any excuse. His Beyer pattern is continually increasing, and though some would say a bounce is expected, we are just starting to see how good he may be. The choice to win again, and head to Belmont looking for a triple crown.
12. Isn’t He Pefect – He isn’t perfect, not even close, and really doesn’t belong in this race. The only factor he could possibly have is that he breaks next to Animal Kingdom and could cause him trouble out of the gate.
13. Concealed Identity – Sire won the Preakness, and he is 2 for 2 at Pimlico. His speed figures are light, but there always seems to be one horse to crash the party, he may be my choice to do it in 3rd or 4th at 30-1.
14. Mr. Commons – Pretty well bred (for turf), and overall I like the way he looks, but he is also coming out of that weak Santa Anita Derby, and breaking from the 14 post with his running style suggests he will be 4 wide on the first turn, which I think will be too much to overcome. Bottom of tickets if at all.
Predicted order of finish:
1st – Animal Kingdom
2nd – Sway Away
3rd – Mucho Macho Man
4th – Astrology
Monday, May 16, 2011
2011 Kentucky Derby Trip Report
Thursday, May 5th
Cinco de Mayo, also travel day for the Derby. Got on the road around 5 with Victoria and Doug. Picked up Mert in Cincinnati around 9ish, and got to see his new house. Guess that short sale worked out for him too. After that we took part in the final segment of the drive, arriving in Louisville around 11pm. We checked into the hotel, and conveniently we had 3 rooms all next to one another. After checking in to the hotel (Super 8 on Preston Hwy in Louisville) and getting settled, we made the annual trip to Trixies / Knockouts. This place has gone downhill every year we’ve been going, and this year was no exception, though I believe it has totally bottomed out. There was one other table occupied, and there was no music (or TV audio) playing. We began the festivities, drinking beer and shooting pool (of which I won 3 of 4 games, therefore I declare myself 2011 Derby Billiards Champion). I also recall a round of Jager shots being ordered. Paul’s contingent arrived around 1am, and the fun continued. At some point in the night Sonny and I went over to the “other” side of the bar, where the girls get naked and the drinking stops. After denying my free pass since it didn’t have the e-mail header on it, Sonny went back to grab another pass from someone in our group. During the time I waited for Sonny, I gave the manager behind the counter a little lip (an incredibly small amount relative to what I am capable of) and the dickhead came around the corner and got in my face. I just stared at him and then looked at other things on the wall, as he continued staring me down. At this point I saw something to the effect of “Save Our Strip Clubs” on the wall, but thought little of it.
Finally Sonny came back with a “valid” free pass, and they let us in. We found it odd that none of the girls were getting naked, and since there were like 5 people in there, we decided to go back with the group. Shortly after that, we headed over to Godfather, where there have been many fun incidents, including Doug being onstage as the biggest fucking loser at the Derby, and most of my bachelor party festivities (note no hyperlink). Again, the girls were wearing clothes, and the vibe seemed totally off. At that point a simple google search noted that the laws in Kentucky changed sometime in 2010, essentially eliminating any fun that can be had in a strip club. After a handful more beers, we left for the hotel, in preparation for Oaks Day.
Friday, May 6th
Woke up in time for first post on Oaks day, getting down to our normal parking spot around 10am. As we were pulling up to the house, and saw our usual hosts, Charlie and Phil, we yelled “Booyah!”, which has become our standard means of saying hello. At that point both Charlie and Phil broke into what is apparently a standard booyah pose, with both arms outstretched in some weird manner (see picture below). Note how everyone has their own little take on the booyah pose. After pounding a quick beer (for the hangovers), we left for the track.
Oaks day started off good, with me nailing a superfecta in the 2nd race (with Doug as a partial investor), but as the day got longer, our bet sizes increased, while our amount of returns decreased. By the end of the day, I was stuck about a nickel, and everyone else was stuck as well. The day as a whole was great though, the forecast had this being our best day, and it didn’t disappoint….partly to mostly sunny, high around 70, basically perfect.
After the track, we headed out to dinner, with the plan being to visit Roosters, which is the restaurant we went to last year with the bachelor party group. We ordered a lot of wings (maybe 100), and didn’t come near finishing them all. An awful lot of beer was consumed, and when it came time for credit card roulette, my good run was ended, as the waitress drew my card to pay the bill, which came out to around $175 (cheaper than I expected). As dinner had progressed, the table got louder and louder, and soon after paying our bill, we were asked to leave. Apparently they had complaints from some of their other patrons. In the end, Paul and I went to the bar area to finish our drinks and the manager and waitress invited us to sit back down, essentially saying Sonny was the reason for us getting the boot (as a side note, I have seen Sonny, and even myself on far worse behavior).
Following Roosters we headed back to the hotel, with undetermined plans. While handicapping the Derby a bit further, I passed out on the bed. Similar things appeared to happen in all rooms, as Doug ended up going downtown (allegedly) with a guy who was staying on our floor, apparently getting a ride in their limo. He ended up coming back by himself around 2am, nearly fighting with the cabbie over the return fare, while nearly getting into a race fight with him.
Saturday, May 7th
Derby day…we got to the track a bit later than planned, and grabbed basically the last 2 parking spots at Charlies. Paul’s contingent had arrived several hours earlier as they were sitting on the infield. On the way to the track, we had to unload 2 Derby tickets, with a $129 face value. We were hoping to get at least $65 each out of them, fully preparing to take a 50% loss. When we hit our first scalper, he was also asking for tickets, we showed him what we had, and he asked how much we wanted for them. I responded, “We’ll take $100 each for them.”, and he immediately peeled $200 from his roll and gave it to me. A guy who was himself looking for tickets said he would have paid a lot more of them. So while it felt good to rid ourselves of the tickets at a small loss, it still felt like we left some money on the table.
Derby day started out a bit like Oaks day finished, with me flushing money down the toilet. Around noon it started raining, so we decided to make the trip down to the infield to check out Paul’s setup, which was phenomenal compared to past infield setups of ours. Along with a tarp, they had a small canopy that allowed us all to stay dry during the brief rainy period. During this time it was a bit cold, as the temperature was around 60. Eventually as the weather improved we decided to head back to the grandstand, partially in order to stake our claim on our spot for the Derby itself. In the 8th race, Sonny opened up a 50 cent pick 4 ticket that would close out on the Derby, netting him over 6K (incidentally the ticket originally was for a $1 base bet, but due to the ticket costing $500 he refunded the ticket and did it for 50 cents. The 9th race came through for him and the pick 4 with Aikenite winning at something like 13-1. I continued to slowly bleed money. In the 10th race, the Woodford Reserve turf race, I concluded that I loved the #7 horse, Get Stormy, who was around 6-1 or 7-1, as I felt he would make an easy uncontested lead. The race played out just as I had imagined, as Get Stormy had enough left to hold on, and I caught the trifecta, which wasn’t a large windfall, but it did give me some more money to play with for the Derby.
Now, on to the Derby. In this post, I predicted Nehro 1st and Animal Kingdom 2nd, so I had Dave put in bets on my Twin Spires account, wheeling Animal Kingdom in 1st, 2nd and 3rd, around a bunch of horses. Since he was 20-1, there was no fear of the payout being poor. We finished constructing our super tickets throughout the early afternoon, and in the end we wheeled Nehro (Sonny and I both loved him) and Midnight Interlude (Sonny’s love, I liked him but not as much) in all 4 spots, surrounded by a bunch of horses, with the final investment being slightly North of $2400. Here is the workout for the Derby ticket.
I also placed a small win bet on Animal Kingdom for Victoria, and then threw in some other trifecta bets. The Derby started out as expected, with Shackleford making the lead in very easy fractions (I expected slow, but not as slow as they went). On the far turn, from our vantage point, we could tell the #19 (Nehro) was making a big move. As the horses passed us, I couldn’t tell who was on the extreme outside. After the finish, all I knew was that Nehro was in there, and that Shackleford finished 4th (all good things). We frantically started asking people who won, and many people said they thought it was the #19. Somebody else said the #16 (Animal Kingdom), which was thrilling to me since I loved him. Then somebody else said they thought it was both of them. The jumbotron was focused on the winner, but due to the odd saddlecloth color, and the fact that the saddlecloth was partially folded over, we still couldn’t tell who it was. Finally they put the winner on the board, the #16 horse. They still didn’t say who was 2nd-4th, though I knew about 4th. Finally after an agonizing minute or two, they put the final order of finish on the board, 16-19 (Nehro)-13 (Mucho Macho Man) – 14 (Shackleford). Once I figured out who the horses were, I knew we had it, and I knew I had the trifecta as well. Here is the winning ticket:
Sonny had run to a TV after the finish to see if he could see the order of finish, and when he returned, we began celebrating, believing this race would pay WAY more than the $29K we got back in 2008, on the Big Brown super. Needless to say, we were “disappointed” when it came back $24K on the $1 bet. My trifecta also got almost $1K on a 50 cent bet. In addition to that, Victoria had $5 to win on Animal Kingdom, as did Jen. Fortunately everyone in our group got a piece of the ticket (from as low as 2% shares), and everybody left the track at worst dead nuts even.
On the way back to the car, I ran ahead and threw Charlie $20 to buy 10 beers. We then proceeded with the traditional “Jimmie Johnson” beer showers. After that, we went to Outback Steakhouse for a celebratory dinner, which we “forced” Sonny to pay for, by virtue of his 40+% stake in our Superfecta ticket, along with his $1.50 cent trifecta, 50 cent pick 4, and $1 pick 3, all closing out on the Derby. Amazingly, we didn’t get kicked out, and had a very good meal. Following dinner we stopped at a party store and bought 30 tall Miller Lites, and proceeded to tailgate in the parking lot. We were eventually joined by the guys from Wisconsin, one of which Doug hung out with the night before.
Sunday, May 9th
Me, Doug, Sonny and Victoria went to Waffle House for the traditional Sunday breakfast, in which we had the slowest and worst server ever. Then we began the drive back, with me allowing Victoria and Sonny to do the driving as I wrestled with a hangover and alcohol induced upset stomach. The hills of Kentucky were rough, as I had to fight the urge to vomit multiple times.
Epilogue:
Overall though, a great trip, one of the best yet. We had a very large contingent. Hopefully I capture it all here, from Michigan it was Me (14th year), Sonny (14th or 15th year), Paul (16th year), Victoria (3rd year), Laura (3rd or 4th??), Doug (who knows, 7 years?), Austin and Beverly (1st timers), Dan and Jen (Dan 2nd time, Jen 1st), Sarah (1st timer), Brett and his 4 brothers (1st timers mostly, maybe 1 of them had been there before). We were also joined in spirit by Erik (had a last minute work conflict), and Dave (wife wouldn’t let him have his balls), and Doug had a few investors of his own in Steve and his Dad.
Nobody lost money, at least none in the immediate group involved in Superfecta. It was the first year in a long time that we didn’t visit the casino.
Other items of note that didn’t make the main blog:
The “Bad TV” didn’t get enough of a mention above, so I need to mention it again.
Charlie and Phil always arguing, and Sonny’s imitation during the post derby fun.
The “Gotcha Bitch” Osama t-shirts that were being aggressively sold outside the track.
The back stairwell carnage, that progressively got worse by late Saturday night, culminating in Paul hearing someone complain about it at the main hotel counter Sunday morning.
Brett mentioned seeing “Barenaked Ladies” performing a free concert on 4th street on Friday night, unfortunately we were all too wrecked to make it.
Another Brett: "While waiting at the limo, drinking beer with chuck and phil, they needed me to move the limo because they boxed in a dude from abc/Lexington for 3 hours...I didn't have the keys- or so I thought! After another 40 minutes, I realized I had the keys!"
More Brett: “The IRS girl looking at me funny when I vouched for my brother and he proceeded to bet $2 to show! Hilarious!”
Last Brett: “Hitting the Tri in 2010 and being part of a Super in 2011....super high 5 next year!”
Cinco de Mayo, also travel day for the Derby. Got on the road around 5 with Victoria and Doug. Picked up Mert in Cincinnati around 9ish, and got to see his new house. Guess that short sale worked out for him too. After that we took part in the final segment of the drive, arriving in Louisville around 11pm. We checked into the hotel, and conveniently we had 3 rooms all next to one another. After checking in to the hotel (Super 8 on Preston Hwy in Louisville) and getting settled, we made the annual trip to Trixies / Knockouts. This place has gone downhill every year we’ve been going, and this year was no exception, though I believe it has totally bottomed out. There was one other table occupied, and there was no music (or TV audio) playing. We began the festivities, drinking beer and shooting pool (of which I won 3 of 4 games, therefore I declare myself 2011 Derby Billiards Champion). I also recall a round of Jager shots being ordered. Paul’s contingent arrived around 1am, and the fun continued. At some point in the night Sonny and I went over to the “other” side of the bar, where the girls get naked and the drinking stops. After denying my free pass since it didn’t have the e-mail header on it, Sonny went back to grab another pass from someone in our group. During the time I waited for Sonny, I gave the manager behind the counter a little lip (an incredibly small amount relative to what I am capable of) and the dickhead came around the corner and got in my face. I just stared at him and then looked at other things on the wall, as he continued staring me down. At this point I saw something to the effect of “Save Our Strip Clubs” on the wall, but thought little of it.
Finally Sonny came back with a “valid” free pass, and they let us in. We found it odd that none of the girls were getting naked, and since there were like 5 people in there, we decided to go back with the group. Shortly after that, we headed over to Godfather, where there have been many fun incidents, including Doug being onstage as the biggest fucking loser at the Derby, and most of my bachelor party festivities (note no hyperlink). Again, the girls were wearing clothes, and the vibe seemed totally off. At that point a simple google search noted that the laws in Kentucky changed sometime in 2010, essentially eliminating any fun that can be had in a strip club. After a handful more beers, we left for the hotel, in preparation for Oaks Day.
Friday, May 6th
Woke up in time for first post on Oaks day, getting down to our normal parking spot around 10am. As we were pulling up to the house, and saw our usual hosts, Charlie and Phil, we yelled “Booyah!”, which has become our standard means of saying hello. At that point both Charlie and Phil broke into what is apparently a standard booyah pose, with both arms outstretched in some weird manner (see picture below). Note how everyone has their own little take on the booyah pose. After pounding a quick beer (for the hangovers), we left for the track.
Oaks day started off good, with me nailing a superfecta in the 2nd race (with Doug as a partial investor), but as the day got longer, our bet sizes increased, while our amount of returns decreased. By the end of the day, I was stuck about a nickel, and everyone else was stuck as well. The day as a whole was great though, the forecast had this being our best day, and it didn’t disappoint….partly to mostly sunny, high around 70, basically perfect.
After the track, we headed out to dinner, with the plan being to visit Roosters, which is the restaurant we went to last year with the bachelor party group. We ordered a lot of wings (maybe 100), and didn’t come near finishing them all. An awful lot of beer was consumed, and when it came time for credit card roulette, my good run was ended, as the waitress drew my card to pay the bill, which came out to around $175 (cheaper than I expected). As dinner had progressed, the table got louder and louder, and soon after paying our bill, we were asked to leave. Apparently they had complaints from some of their other patrons. In the end, Paul and I went to the bar area to finish our drinks and the manager and waitress invited us to sit back down, essentially saying Sonny was the reason for us getting the boot (as a side note, I have seen Sonny, and even myself on far worse behavior).
Following Roosters we headed back to the hotel, with undetermined plans. While handicapping the Derby a bit further, I passed out on the bed. Similar things appeared to happen in all rooms, as Doug ended up going downtown (allegedly) with a guy who was staying on our floor, apparently getting a ride in their limo. He ended up coming back by himself around 2am, nearly fighting with the cabbie over the return fare, while nearly getting into a race fight with him.
Saturday, May 7th
Derby day…we got to the track a bit later than planned, and grabbed basically the last 2 parking spots at Charlies. Paul’s contingent had arrived several hours earlier as they were sitting on the infield. On the way to the track, we had to unload 2 Derby tickets, with a $129 face value. We were hoping to get at least $65 each out of them, fully preparing to take a 50% loss. When we hit our first scalper, he was also asking for tickets, we showed him what we had, and he asked how much we wanted for them. I responded, “We’ll take $100 each for them.”, and he immediately peeled $200 from his roll and gave it to me. A guy who was himself looking for tickets said he would have paid a lot more of them. So while it felt good to rid ourselves of the tickets at a small loss, it still felt like we left some money on the table.
Derby day started out a bit like Oaks day finished, with me flushing money down the toilet. Around noon it started raining, so we decided to make the trip down to the infield to check out Paul’s setup, which was phenomenal compared to past infield setups of ours. Along with a tarp, they had a small canopy that allowed us all to stay dry during the brief rainy period. During this time it was a bit cold, as the temperature was around 60. Eventually as the weather improved we decided to head back to the grandstand, partially in order to stake our claim on our spot for the Derby itself. In the 8th race, Sonny opened up a 50 cent pick 4 ticket that would close out on the Derby, netting him over 6K (incidentally the ticket originally was for a $1 base bet, but due to the ticket costing $500 he refunded the ticket and did it for 50 cents. The 9th race came through for him and the pick 4 with Aikenite winning at something like 13-1. I continued to slowly bleed money. In the 10th race, the Woodford Reserve turf race, I concluded that I loved the #7 horse, Get Stormy, who was around 6-1 or 7-1, as I felt he would make an easy uncontested lead. The race played out just as I had imagined, as Get Stormy had enough left to hold on, and I caught the trifecta, which wasn’t a large windfall, but it did give me some more money to play with for the Derby.
Now, on to the Derby. In this post, I predicted Nehro 1st and Animal Kingdom 2nd, so I had Dave put in bets on my Twin Spires account, wheeling Animal Kingdom in 1st, 2nd and 3rd, around a bunch of horses. Since he was 20-1, there was no fear of the payout being poor. We finished constructing our super tickets throughout the early afternoon, and in the end we wheeled Nehro (Sonny and I both loved him) and Midnight Interlude (Sonny’s love, I liked him but not as much) in all 4 spots, surrounded by a bunch of horses, with the final investment being slightly North of $2400. Here is the workout for the Derby ticket.
I also placed a small win bet on Animal Kingdom for Victoria, and then threw in some other trifecta bets. The Derby started out as expected, with Shackleford making the lead in very easy fractions (I expected slow, but not as slow as they went). On the far turn, from our vantage point, we could tell the #19 (Nehro) was making a big move. As the horses passed us, I couldn’t tell who was on the extreme outside. After the finish, all I knew was that Nehro was in there, and that Shackleford finished 4th (all good things). We frantically started asking people who won, and many people said they thought it was the #19. Somebody else said the #16 (Animal Kingdom), which was thrilling to me since I loved him. Then somebody else said they thought it was both of them. The jumbotron was focused on the winner, but due to the odd saddlecloth color, and the fact that the saddlecloth was partially folded over, we still couldn’t tell who it was. Finally they put the winner on the board, the #16 horse. They still didn’t say who was 2nd-4th, though I knew about 4th. Finally after an agonizing minute or two, they put the final order of finish on the board, 16-19 (Nehro)-13 (Mucho Macho Man) – 14 (Shackleford). Once I figured out who the horses were, I knew we had it, and I knew I had the trifecta as well. Here is the winning ticket:
Sonny had run to a TV after the finish to see if he could see the order of finish, and when he returned, we began celebrating, believing this race would pay WAY more than the $29K we got back in 2008, on the Big Brown super. Needless to say, we were “disappointed” when it came back $24K on the $1 bet. My trifecta also got almost $1K on a 50 cent bet. In addition to that, Victoria had $5 to win on Animal Kingdom, as did Jen. Fortunately everyone in our group got a piece of the ticket (from as low as 2% shares), and everybody left the track at worst dead nuts even.
On the way back to the car, I ran ahead and threw Charlie $20 to buy 10 beers. We then proceeded with the traditional “Jimmie Johnson” beer showers. After that, we went to Outback Steakhouse for a celebratory dinner, which we “forced” Sonny to pay for, by virtue of his 40+% stake in our Superfecta ticket, along with his $1.50 cent trifecta, 50 cent pick 4, and $1 pick 3, all closing out on the Derby. Amazingly, we didn’t get kicked out, and had a very good meal. Following dinner we stopped at a party store and bought 30 tall Miller Lites, and proceeded to tailgate in the parking lot. We were eventually joined by the guys from Wisconsin, one of which Doug hung out with the night before.
Sunday, May 9th
Me, Doug, Sonny and Victoria went to Waffle House for the traditional Sunday breakfast, in which we had the slowest and worst server ever. Then we began the drive back, with me allowing Victoria and Sonny to do the driving as I wrestled with a hangover and alcohol induced upset stomach. The hills of Kentucky were rough, as I had to fight the urge to vomit multiple times.
Epilogue:
Overall though, a great trip, one of the best yet. We had a very large contingent. Hopefully I capture it all here, from Michigan it was Me (14th year), Sonny (14th or 15th year), Paul (16th year), Victoria (3rd year), Laura (3rd or 4th??), Doug (who knows, 7 years?), Austin and Beverly (1st timers), Dan and Jen (Dan 2nd time, Jen 1st), Sarah (1st timer), Brett and his 4 brothers (1st timers mostly, maybe 1 of them had been there before). We were also joined in spirit by Erik (had a last minute work conflict), and Dave (wife wouldn’t let him have his balls), and Doug had a few investors of his own in Steve and his Dad.
Nobody lost money, at least none in the immediate group involved in Superfecta. It was the first year in a long time that we didn’t visit the casino.
Other items of note that didn’t make the main blog:
The “Bad TV” didn’t get enough of a mention above, so I need to mention it again.
Charlie and Phil always arguing, and Sonny’s imitation during the post derby fun.
The “Gotcha Bitch” Osama t-shirts that were being aggressively sold outside the track.
The back stairwell carnage, that progressively got worse by late Saturday night, culminating in Paul hearing someone complain about it at the main hotel counter Sunday morning.
Brett mentioned seeing “Barenaked Ladies” performing a free concert on 4th street on Friday night, unfortunately we were all too wrecked to make it.
Another Brett: "While waiting at the limo, drinking beer with chuck and phil, they needed me to move the limo because they boxed in a dude from abc/Lexington for 3 hours...I didn't have the keys- or so I thought! After another 40 minutes, I realized I had the keys!"
More Brett: “The IRS girl looking at me funny when I vouched for my brother and he proceeded to bet $2 to show! Hilarious!”
Last Brett: “Hitting the Tri in 2010 and being part of a Super in 2011....super high 5 next year!”
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