Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 06, 2011

2011 $250 Redraft team

Here's the results of my redraft. Scoring is same as auction team, PPR, and you have to start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 FLEX.

Last year I went 5-8 in the league with a team that everyone loved. I was bit by Turner, Marshall and Shonn Greene all underachieving last year.

In this draft, you got to pick your draft spot and I got the #2 choice. I wanted Rice or Charles, and I looked at 12 high stakes draft leagues to see where players were going. The first choice picked the #3 spot, so I picked the #4 spot. In all of the leagues I looked at, one of Rice and Charles were there. The draft also uses 3rd round reversal, meaning the 3rd round goes the same order as the 2nd, and then snakes from there.

My strategy was again to get strong at WR, and go QB very late.

1.04 - Mendenall - Controversial choice here. Rice and Charles went 2 and 3. I hate ADP this year and didn't want him. Felt Rashard was a better pick. Flame away.

2.09 - Wallace - Love him this year. He was who I pegged in every mock I did. Not thrilled about the PIT-PIT start, but there are worse offenses I could lock in.

3.09 - Welker - PPR monster. With Ocho drawing a bit of attention, think his catch numbers may go back up, though his TD numbers will likely go down. Considered Mike Williams and Blount here.

4.04 - DeAngelo - Looks like I am going all-in on him this year. Definitely scares me, but the other RB's and WR's I liked for this spot were gone.

5.09 - Britt - Another one I am all-in on. Considered nobody else.

6.04 - Lynch - Wanted to go WR, but they were picked pretty thin. Considered V. Davis here.

7.09 - S. Rice - Definitely need WR's. His QB situation scares me, as does this new injury which happened after the pick was made.

8.04 - Meachem - Like the pick , and like him as a WR5 with big upside.

9.09 - Little - Got my 6th WR, another home run pick. Maybe could have waited, but there was nobody else I liked there.

10.04 - Woodhead - Suprised how good he was last year, and he can be a capable RB2/3 since he gets so many touches. Think the Pats will still keep him involved. Probably a need pick here since my RB2 scares the piss out of me.

11.09 - Cutler - I personally hate him, but love his prospects for big #'s this year. They got rid of Olsen, and will be turning the WR's loose this year.

12.04 - G. Olsen - Was going to go with Flacco here, but he went between my picks. Need a TE, and he could be the focal point of their passing game.

13.09 - Fred Davis - As I said in the other draft, could be huge.

14.04 - Cassel - Barf, but needed a backup QB.

15.09 - Thomas Jones - Meh, just trying to get a few RB's that have some potential, since I am fairly set at WR.

16.04 - Forsett - He's a handcuff who has proven capable in limited work starting.

17.09 - Redman - Another cuff.

18.04 - Taiwan Jones - Stranger things have happened, and Oakland's running game has been great in the recent past. DMC and Bush have never been pictures of health.

Overall - Jury is still out here. If DeAngelo shows up, this team could be very good. If not, it will be a struggle.

2011 Auction $250 team

Here's the results of my auction draft. Scoring is PPR, and you have to start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 FLEX.

Last year I went 11-2 in the league with a team that none of you guys really liked, and lost in the semi's because I failed to notice my TE on the inactive list, and would have won starting my backup. $1000 mistake as I would have won the finals.

My strategy was to not spend a lot on anyone, and try to get very deep at WR as I feel that is the way to win this style of league. RB is not near as important, and I would like to start 4 WR's most weeks.

$400 salary cap, basically twice what me and Labelle were allotted when we split the WCOFF auction team, with the same exact scoring.

QB: Schaub 20, Leinart 1

I got a QB I can start every week for a decent price. I didn't want to spend any more on QB, so I rolled without a backup. His bye week is week 11, so I can scour the waiver wire until then. The lack of a backup means I am starting Leinart if he gets hurt, which is ok by me as I think most QB's could be serviceable in that system. In fact, would rather go Leinart then Cassel if that situation happens.

RB: Forte 72, Deangelo 47, Lynch 28, BJGE 15, Snelling 12, McGahee 9, Forsett 1

Forte is a PPR beast. Deangelo scares me, but I thought he was value. I think Lynch is very underrated this year, and can even be a #2 if DeAngelo flops. BJGE is strictly a bye week or injury fill-in. Snelling is a lottery pick, as I think Turner is on his last legs. Willis will be a TD vulture, and Forsett is just a low end handcuff who could pay off.

WR: MWilliams TB 52, Britt 36, Garcon 35, Little 13, Meachem 9, MWilliams SEA 8, Bennett 7

Didn't do as well as I hoped here. I like all of my guys, but I love them one slot lower than they are in my lineup. Williams will have to step up to achieve #1 status. Britt could be a #1, but he also could be a total bust (he is this years Bowe in my eyes). Garcon I always liked, but this was before the Peyton stuff came back out. Little I think could be starter potential in Cleveland, and I also like Meachem's chances with Colston's knee about to fall apart. The bad news is figuring out when to start him and Little. BMW may be a steal, since Rice is dinged up, and he was a great PPR guy last year. Bennett could be the lead guy in Martz's system.

TE: Daniels 27, Fred Davis 2

I had Daniels pegged as my #3 TE on the board, but had to pay for him, as he was one of the last upper tier guys left. Should have gone for Vernon at 25 earlier in the draft, but figured Daniels to be in the 20 range. I do have the Schaub/Daniels hookup though. Fred Davis could be huge, as I don't think Cooley plays much this year.

Overall: I give myself a B- here. I did a lot of pre-work, made a budget, and stuck to my budget. The problem was that a lot of the guys I was very high on went for more $ than I had planned them to go for, reducing my ability to grab other guys.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

2010 Fantasy Football - Pre and Mid-season

A quick recap of the fantasy season thus far. I will dissect the teams by league, giving pre-season thoughts that I wrote up first about the team, followed by thoughts now that nearly 9 weeks of the season are complete.

Champions Club:
Pre-season: Loaded RB’s, average WR’s at this point, but likely to make a move at some point. Definite playoff team, and likely division winner. Consensus top pick for playoffs in pre-season predictions.

Mid-season: Everything just went wrong with this team. The RB’s (MJD, Rice and Turner) couldn’t reach the endzone, the WR’s disappointed mightily in the beginning, and got swept in the doubleheader week. Lost 2 close ones in the middle of the season, and at 4-6 at this point, the team is done. I have moved Ray Rice for a 1st round pick in 2011, and that pick is shaping up to be middle of the road, which is pretty nice. I have also managed to spin 2 QB’s, a WR, and a TE into improved draft position for 2011 as well.

Labelle:
Pre-season: Started in a whole with draft choices, this is probably a middle of the road team. Could be a fringe playoff contender, and I haven’t been afraid to add for a playoff push. Thinking 7-6.

Mid-season: Everything has gone right with this team. Peyton HIllis and Michael Vick have been free agent gold, and also added players like DeAngelo Williams, Marques Colston, and Phillip Rivers. Currently sitting at 8-1 and in first place overall.

Dynasty:
Pre-season: This is the league I really have no idea about. I think there are a lot of teams that are very close to each other, and our division will beat up on each other. The unchanged schedule means I again don’t play Madsprayer, which was an easy win last season. Think I will be 7-6 again and right on the edge of the playoffs.

Mid-season:
My prediction looks dead on here. This team has had a few huge weeks and a few terrible weeks. Sitting at 4-4, they have the 2nd highest point total. Also right on the edge of the playoffs at this point, sitting in the 6th spot. Added Jacob Tamme to try to get superstud performance at TE down the stretch, trading Dexter McCluster and LeGarrette Blount (I also got Chris Wells and Tim Hightower in the deal).

Auction:
Pre-season – Todd’s analysis:
QB: Kolb ($14) All-in on him here. I tried to get a backup, but will use the waiver wire for it, as at the end of the auction I thought grabbing Hillis as a potential RB was more valuable than another QB.
RB: Mccoy ($63), Grant ($60), C Wells ($42), R Williams ($13), Hillis ($8), Choice ($3), Bell ($1) No-name, but I think a decent group. Think Wells and Ricky may have some value, and Grant should be consistent.

WR: Nicks ($50), Bowe ($48), Maclin ($37), Garcon ($29), Burleson ($14), M Thomas ($9), D Henderson ($1 – accidental bid) Again a lot of lesser names, but the whole squad is guys I am really high on.

TE: Scheffler ($1), Gresham ($2)
Because I bid on Ricky, I couldn’t afford even a bottom level TE. So I grabbed Scheffler to start early, and hoping to hit a home run on Gresham
Dave’s analysis: not a huge fan of the Auction team, although i think it can be sneaky good...really gonna depend on how Kolb plays (or if you get a lucky on WW)...i think you may be overly reliant on the Eagles. also with the WRs you dont have any go-to guys, and most of them are in offenses that like to spread it around so you could be in for some down weeks...probably a rollercoaster of a team that should be around .500 but could sneak into the playoffs

Mid-season: Team started 0-2, but has now won 6 straight (looking for 7) and almost assured to be in the playoffs. In the hunt for the division title as well. The gamble at the QB position hasn’t worked out, as Kolb got hurt week 1, and lost the job. It has been patchwork since that week, with guys like Bradford, Young, and now the recently acquired Carson Palmer (got along with Celek in exchange for Garcon and Thomas). The RB’s were hurt by the week 1 injury to Grant, but Hillis has been a revelation in his place. WR’s have been great, with Nicks emerging as a star, and the rest being solid. Waiver wire acquisition Devone Bess made trading Garcon and Thomas possible.

Redraft:
Preseason: Todd’s analysis: This was a snake draft, with the 3rd round going in reverse order from a typical serpentine, hence I am early in the odd number rounds and late in the even number rounds after the 3rd round.
QB: Manning (8.09), Henne (13.04) As most know, I am really big on Eli this year. Henne could be a sleeper this year with Marshall, though I hope to play him only once or twice.
RB: Turner (1.09), Greene (4.09), Ricky (7.04), T Jones (11.04), Snelling (14.09), B Jackson (16.09) Pretty decent group I think. Snelling is a capable handcuff to Turner. No real receiving points out of this group, but hoping to get a ton of carries out of Turner and Greene.
WR: Marshall (2.04), Desean Jackson (3.04), Bowe (5.04), Garcon (6.09), Hester (9.04), Devin Thomas (15.04), Tate (17.04) Love this group. Garcon and Hester as my #4 and #5 is huge in PPR.

TE: Carlson (10.09), Gresham (12.09) As with the other team, I sacrificed at TE for WR depth. Again went with Gresham as a home run candidate.

Dave’s analysis: i like the redraft quite a bit, although not having any pass catching backs could be an issue...as long as Turner and Greene churn out the points it should be a playoff team

Mid-season: This team started off awful, losing first 4 games, and putting up dismal scores in most of those. Since then they have won 5 in a row, and now sit in a jumbled up playoff chase, around the 5 spot at this point. The RB’s aren’t very good after Turner, and the WR’s have slightly underachieved, but this team still has a shot to put it together led by the top 3 WR’s.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Fantasy season round-up

I haven't done an overall roundup in a while, partially due to bad results, partially due to being extremely busy.

WCOFF Main League - 7-5 (winner of the 3rd place game) - I lost in a heartbreaking finish in week 11 to miss the League Championship game, and the chance at 6K for first. I did win my 3rd place game, getting $500 back, and earning a spot in the consolation bowl for some $$$, but way below the 200K I was shooting for.

WCOFF Draftmasters - 1st place out of 12 (not head to head) - We are riding LT as far as he can take us, as the rest of the team has been disappointing. The chase is for 6K to first. Paul and I will split this league again next year, most likely.

WCOFF Auction - 4-7 (finished 4th in points out of 12) - We made some bad lineup decisions, and had a ridiculous amount of points scored against us, which caused us to have a bad head to head record. The season is over, but I felt we did a very good job in this draft. I think we'll definitely split this league again next year.

WCOFF Satellite #1 - 6th place out of 12 (not head to head) - Made a big drop in 3 weeks, but still only a few points out of 2nd. Need to be in the top 4 within 2 weeks for the playoffs. My teams fall has co-incided with the injury to McGahee and Brown, as well as Marques Colston.

Champions Club - 8-4 (4th in points) - Just ended one of the worst 4 week stretches ever. I was 7-0, but lost week 8 (best 4 players on a bye week), lost week 9 (lost McGahee for 3 weeks), lost week 10 (lost Portis for the season), lost week 11 (lost McNabb for the season), then won week 12 (but lost Ronnie Brown for an undetermined length of time. One week left, and I am 99% sure I will be in the playoffs, but it will be a tough hall with the makeshift lineup I have. There is still potential there, but Roy and TO need to play huge, and I have to find a QB to play.

Labelle's League - 4-8 (8th in points) - Team has fallen apart with 4 straight losses. I lost some very high scoring games, then Portis and McNabb got hurt for the season. I decided 2 weeks ago to build towards next year, so I traded Wayne for a future draft choice (since he is ineligible to be kept for next year).

Ultimate Dynasty - 3-9 (9th in power rankings) - I didn't expect to contend this year, and now I have lost 7 straight after a promising start. My rookie draft last year was huge, as I got potential studs in Maroney and Jones-Drew, as well as a serviceable RB in Lundy. Now I need to address WR either in the draft or in off-season trades. Drew may have some big trade value, but I'm not all that excited to trade him either, as he could be a future building block. It won't be long until my youth movement in this league makes my team a power.

Auction practice - 8-4 (1st in power rankings) - Solid team here, despite one of my top players getting hurt before the season started (Dom Davis). I have a hugely reliable WR corps in Andre Johnson, Boldin, Evans, Coles and Mark Clayton, and a decent RB group in McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Maroney and Marion Barber. I have had the high score for the last 2 weeks, earning money for both weeks, and the team is peaking at the right time. I will also likely start Vince Young, as he is rolling right now.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Week 8 Fantasy Round-up

Back to back really bad weeks.

WCOFF Main League - 4-4 (2nd in points, would be in League Championship game if season ended today...but there are 3 weeks left)
WCOFF Draftmasters - 2nd place out of 12 (not head to head)
WCOFF Auction - 2-6 (6th in points, but only 32 points out of the League Championship game)
WCOFF Satellite #1 - 2nd place out of 12 (not head to head)
Champions Club - 7-1 (2nd in points)
Labelle's League - 4-4 (3rd in points)
Ultimate Dynasty - 3-5 (9th in power rankings)
Auction practice - 5-3 (5th in power rankings)

Overall record of 25-23

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Week 7 Fantasy round-up

First really bad week for me.

WCOFF Main League - 4-3 (2nd in points)
WCOFF Draftmasters - 2nd place out of 12 (not head to head)
WCOFF Auction - 2-5 (6th in points)
WCOFF Satellite #1 - 2nd place out of 12 (not head to head)
Champions Club - 7-0 (1st in points)
Labelle's League - 3-4 (2nd in points)
Ultimate Dynasty - 3-4 (8th in power rankings)
Auction practice - 5-2 (3rd in power rankings)

Overall record of 24-18

Friday, October 20, 2006

Mid-season review

Since I'm bored, I thought I'd review my WCOFF draft team at about the midway point of the season. Below is what I wrote following the draft. In bold are my comments now.

1st - Steven Jackson - was the #3 player on my draft board, so it was an easy pick. Ronnie Brown and his 22 Thursday night points were taken directly before me. Currently the 5th rated RB, so a good pick to this point. Very involved in the passing game which is critical.

2nd – Anquan Boldin – Was between Reggie Bush and Boldin here. My draft board said Boldin, but my gut said Bush. I was pretty sure neither would make it back to me in the third round. By the looks of New Orleans first game, Bush is going to be more involved then even I originally thought. I pegged him at 60+ catches, and at the rate he was thrown at yesterday, he could get 100. Currently ranked 3rd at WR, and only getting better. With Fitzgerald hurt right now, his value is even higher.

3rd – Kevin Jones – Revisiting last year I guess. I think he’s going to be very involved in the receiving game. The problem is that the line sucks. I have some faith in the offense getting untracked in a weak division, so I’ll reserve judgment past one week. I didn’t think he would be available here, and was planning on taking Frank Gore…who of course exploded yesterday. Currently ranked 3rd at RB, and hugely involved in the passing game. He scares me to have, but so far has been huge.

4th – Santana Moss – I would have taken Droughns here, but he went 1 before me, so I took my next best WR in Moss. Between him and Boldin they should have a ton of balls thrown to them, a key in a PPR league. Currently ranked 6th, despite underperforming save for his one huge week. I look for more consistent output from him.

5th – Joe Horn – Was hoping for RB here in Fred Taylor, but he went 4 picks earlier. I didn’t feel good about getting involved in the Denver situation at this pick, so I thought Horn was a safe pick as my #3 WR in a rebound season. Trading Stallworth told me NO was comfortable with him…but their first game didn’t excite me about his prospects. I’ll reserve judgment for now though. Ranked 18th at WR, but performing decent. Colston has emerged as the #1 threat, and Bush gets a lot of balls thrown to him. Even so, I like him as my #3 WR.

6th – Cedric Benson – I still had questions in my mind about Kevin Jones and needed some RB’s, preferably with some upside. Tatum and Mike Bell both went off the board, so I had to decide between Benson and Marion Barber (with Barber a possible spot starter due to his 3rd down use). Based on ADP I figured Benson wouldn’t make it back to me, but Barber could. Hasn't done anything to this point, and likely won't unless Thomas Jones gets hurt. Marion Barber would have been better at this point, even though he's only good for 10 pts or so a game, tops.

7th – Kevan Barlow – Well Barber didn’t make it back, and Coles was my target, but he went right before me. I liked Antonio Bryant a lot, but thought he may make it back to me in the 8th, so I grabbed a potential RB starter. He was a huge disappointment for 2 years, so I thought he was worth a shot in a shitty backfield behind a rebuilding offensive line. Basically an insurance pick. This guy sucks now, pure and simple. He will get less carries from here on out. If I had gotten Coles here as my #4 WR I would be in the top 5 out of all of all 840 owners.

8th – Laurence Maroney - Was targeting Michael Clayton, who went two picks before, and Bryant was also taken. So I grabbed another RB, and decided I would be done at that position after this pick for a while. Had Maroney not been on the injury report and expected to be out week 1, he would have been gone by now. They won’t be able to keep him off the field long here. Pure stud here, only good for 10-15 points a game right now, but if Dillon gets hurt, look out. Definitely solid for my #3 RB. Ranked 23rd at RB at this point.

9th - Mark Clayton – Was targeting Braylon Edwards here, who went 3 picks before me (notice a theme?). Needed a 4th WR, as I will be starting 4 for a little while. I’m not as high on Mason as most, with Clayton being the logical other guy there. Game 1 wasn’t a good indicator as Baltimore jumped on TB early. Ranked 34th at WR, had a huge game in week 6, but it was kind of fluky as he caught 2 tipped balls for TD's. Still emerging more as a #4 WR for my team.

10th – Randy McMichael – Love this guy this year. His value dropped due to a disappointing Thursday game, but I think he will see the ball a lot, as he’s too good not to. Took him with the intention of grabbing another TE at the end of the draft to start in week 1, to outscore McMichael’s 2 point effort. Started very slow, but still rated 7th as far as TE's. Emerging more with Joey Harrington at QB.

11th - Aaron Brooks – I can feel the QB run starting, so I grab my best available. He’s a shitty QB, but a very good fantasy QB, with a nice schedule. I take him knowing he may be benched at some point if Oakland disappoints, so I plan on grabbing another one soon. Got hurt in week 1, and Oakland is worse than I ever imagined. Even though Walter, his replacement sucks, Brooks may not see the field again. Wasted pick.

12th – Joe Jurevicious – He proved last year that he can perform as the lead guy. Here he’s the #2. Also a potential spot starter. Hasn't started for me yet, and has been relatively quiet. Starting him in week 7 as a bye week fill-in, hope he can find the end zone.


13th – Eric Parker – For some reason I have him a lot higher than most people. Just grabbing WR depth here and he is the best I have available by far. Nobody really excites me at this point. Also starting him in week 7. Has emerged in the last 2 weeks as a reliable target. Pure bye week fill-in.

14th - Drew Brees – Grabbed my backup in a high scoring potential offense. With Bush, Horn, and Deuce at his disposal, as well as a bad defense, could be nice value. Got the #5 QB in the 14th round, makes up for the bad pick of Brooks. What more can you say.

15th – Brian Calhoun – Simply picking my handcuff. Cut him early in the season, to fill in another roster void. To this point has done nothing.

16th – Marcus Robinson – Could explode when healthy, could be garbage. Worth the risk here. Had a few nice weeks, and a few nothing weeks. Cut him for a needed roster spot. Not very reliable.

17th - Stephen Davis – Fisher already gone in the 13th, I grab another handcuff. Still on the team, as St Louis run game is going nice. If Jackson gets hurt, Davis is a fill-in.

18th - Jeff Wilkins – Decide on an indoor kicker with a late bye week. Didn’t expect him to lead my team in scoring in week 1 (with 2 players pending). Only the 2nd best kicker at this point, with 2 monster weeks under his belt.

19th – Patriots DEF – Weak schedule in first 2 weeks with Buffalo and Jets (I think). After that I will play the defense game by matchup. They sucked and I cut them.

20th – Desmond Clark – My one week TE came through with a 12 point effort. I’ll probably still cut him if there is someone on the waiver wire that appeals to me. Currently the 5th ranked TE. I cut him out of necessity a few weeks ago when he got banged up. Hope that I don't regret that one.

Monday, October 16, 2006

Week 6 Fantasy Roundup

WCOFF Main League - 4-2 (1st in points, 1st place right now)
WCOFF Draftmasters - 2nd place out of 12 (from 12th to 9th to 2nd in 2 weeks time)
WCOFF Auction - 2-4 (4th in points)
WCOFF Satellite #1 - 2nd place out of 12 (not head to head)
Champions Club - 6-0 (1st in points)
Labelle's League - 3-3 (3rd in points)
Ultimate Dynasty - 3-3 (7th in power rankings)
Auction practice - 4-2 (3rd in power rankings)

Overall record of 22-14

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Week 5 Fantasy Round-up

WCOFF Main League - 3-2 (3rd in points)
WCOFF Draftmasters - 9th place out of 12 (not head to head-ugly thus far even though I think our team is solid-up from 12th last week)
WCOFF Auction - 1-4 (8th in points)
WCOFF Satellite #1 - 4th place out of 12 (not head to head)
Champions Club - 5-0 (1st in points)
Labelle's League - 3-2 (3rd in points)
Ultimate Dynasty - 3-2 (6th in power rankings)
Auction practice - 3-2 (4th in power rankings)

18-12 overall

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Week 4 Fantasy Round-up

WCOFF Main League - 3-1 (3rd in points...after a huge 206 point week)
WCOFF Draftmasters - 12th place out of 12 (not head to head-ugly thus far even though I think our team is solid)
WCOFF Auction - 1-3 (6th in points)
WCOFF Satellite #1 - 2nd place out of 12 (not head to head)
Champions Club - 4-0 (1st in points)
Labelle's League - 3-1 (2nd in points)
Ultimate Dynasty - 2-2 (6th in power rankings)
Auction practice - 2-2 (7th in power rankings)

15-9 overall

Monday, September 25, 2006

Week 3 Fantasy wrap-up

Listed in order of importance

WCOFF Main League - 2-1 (10th in points...lucky thus far)
WCOFF Draftmasters - 11th place out of 12 (not head to head)
WCOFF Auction - 1-2 (7th in points)
WCOFF Satellite #1 - 2nd place out of 12 (not head to head)
Champions Club - 3-0
Labelle's League - 3-0
Ultimate Dynasty - 2-1
Auction practice - 1-2

Overall head to head record after 3 weeks: 12-6

Monday, September 11, 2006

2006 WCOFF Draft

This is the first time in a few years that I was actually disappointed in my main WCOFF draft, which may be a good thing based on my past years results.

1st - Steven Jackson - was the #3 player on my draft board, so it was an easy pick. Ronnie Brown and his 22 Thursday night points were taken directly before me.

2nd – Anquan Boldin – Was between Reggie Bush and Boldin here. My draft board said Boldin, but my gut said Bush. I was pretty sure neither would make it back to me in the third round. By the looks of New Orleans first game, Bush is going to be more involved then even I originally thought. I pegged him at 60+ catches, and at the rate he was thrown at yesterday, he could get 100.

3rd – Kevin Jones – Revisiting last year I guess. I think he’s going to be very involved in the receiving game. The problem is that the line sucks. I have some faith in the offense getting untracked in a weak division, so I’ll reserve judgment past one week. I didn’t think he would be available here, and was planning on taking Frank Gore…who of course exploded yesterday.

4th – Santana Moss – I would have taken Droughns here, but he went 1 before me, so I took my next best WR in Moss. Between him and Boldin they should have a ton of balls thrown to them, a key in a PPR league.

5th – Joe Horn – Was hoping for RB here in Fred Taylor, but he went 4 picks earlier. I didn’t feel good about getting involved in the Denver situation at this pick, so I thought Horn was a safe pick as my #3 WR in a rebound season. Trading Stallworth told me NO was comfortable with him…but their first game didn’t excite me about his prospects. I’ll reserve judgment for now though.

6th – Cedric Benson – I still had questions in my mind about Kevin Jones and needed some RB’s, preferably with some upside. Tatum and Mike Bell both went off the board, so I had to decide between Benson and Marion Barber (with Barber a possible spot starter due to his 3rd down use). Based on ADP I figured Benson wouldn’t make it back to me, but Barber could.

7th – Kevan Barlow – Well Barber didn’t make it back, and Coles was my target, but he went right before me. I liked Antonio Bryant a lot, but thought he may make it back to me in the 8th, so I grabbed a potential RB starter. He was a huge disappointment for 2 years, so I thought he was worth a shot in a shitty backfield behind a rebuilding offensive line. Basically an insurance pick.

8th – Laurence Maroney - Was targeting Michael Clayton, who went two picks before, and Bryant was also taken. So I grabbed another RB, and decided I would be done at that position after this pick for a while. Had Maroney not been on the injury report and expected to be out week 1, he would have been gone by now. They won’t be able to keep him off the field long here.

9th - Mark Clayton – Was targeting Braylon Edwards here, who went 3 picks before me (notice a theme?). Needed a 4th WR, as I will be starting 4 for a little while. I’m not as high on Mason as most, with Clayton being the logical other guy there. Game 1 wasn’t a good indicator as Baltimore jumped on TB early.

10th – Randy McMichael – Love this guy this year. His value dropped due to a disappointing Thursday game, but I think he will see the ball a lot, as he’s too good not to. Took him with the intention of grabbing another TE at the end of the draft to start in week 1, to outscore McMichael’s 2 point effort.

11th - Aaron Brooks – I can feel the QB run starting, so I grab my best available. He’s a shitty QB, but a very good fantasy QB, with a nice schedule. I take him knowing he may be benched at some point if Oakland disappoints, so I plan on grabbing another one soon.

12th – Joe Jurevicious – He proved last year that he can perform as the lead guy. Here he’s the #2. Also a potential spot starter.

13th – Eric Parker – For some reason I have him a lot higher than most people. Just grabbing WR depth here and he is the best I have available by far. Nobody really excites me at this point.

14th - Drew Brees – Grabbed my backup in a high scoring potential offense. With Bush, Horn, and Deuce at his disposal, as well as a bad defense, could be nice value.

15th – Brian Calhoun – Simply picking my handcuff.

16th – Marcus Robinson – Could explode when healthy, could be garbage. Worth the risk here.

17th - Stephen Davis – Fisher already gone in the 13th, I grab another handcuff.

18th - Jeff Wilkins – Decide on an indoor kicker with a late bye week. Didn’t expect him to lead my team in scoring in week 1 (with 2 players pending).

19th – Patriots DEF – Weak schedule in first 2 weeks with Buffalo and Jets (I think). After that I will play the defense game by matchup.

20th – Desmond Clark – My one week TE came through with a 12 point effort. I’ll probably still cut him if there is someone on the waiver wire that appeals to me.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Fantasy Football - Larry Johnson thoughts

Larry Johnson is the 2006 consensus #1 pick in all fantasy football circles, but I question whether or not that should be the case. I will outline the reasons below:

Recent history is riddled with RB’s who have torn it up for less than a full season, only to fall flat on their face the following season. In 2005, those players were Julius Jones and Kevin Jones (both correctly pointed out as risks by me prior to the season last year). A few years before that it was William Green. One would be advised to look at recent history, and not just 9 game splits when it comes down to projecting the 2006 season.

The Chiefs offensive system is different. New Head Coach, new offensive co-ordinator. Herm Edwards teams will never be confused with offensive juggernauts. Curtis Martin had some good years there, but nowhere near the kind of numbers that people are predicting out of Johnson.

An improved Chiefs defense (remember, Edwards preaches defense) will likely result in less touches, less wide open games, etc….

Offensive line problems. The loss of Willie Roaf could be a huge impact on the entire offensive scheme. His retirement came unexpected, allowing the Chiefs little time to prepare or counter.

Finally, I don’t expect Johnson to fall on his face and rush for 600 yards or anything ridiculous. The Chiefs don’t have any other valid RB’s, so Johnson will get the lion’s share of the work. But, I think 1200 yards and 10-12 TD’s is far more realistic then the 1800+ yards and 18+ TD’s people expect.