Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Roller coaster session

I played a roller coaster session at Northville Downs yesterday, one in which I misplayed/mangled a few hands, and also played a few hands fairly well.

Elementary Fold

After about 1 orbit or so of folding, I pick up JJ in EP. The pot is straddled by the button to 5, one of the blinds call, and I raise to 25. Player after me calls (125 behind), next player (stack of about 400) raises to 110, player immediately after him shoves for 145. Fold to me, I fold, the first caller goes all-in for his 125. The hands are AA out of the first caller, KK out of the guy that made it 110, and unknown out of the shover. The board runs out QQ9KJ, and the kings take down a monster.

Interesting hand I wasn't involved in

An EP player raised to 12, and got 4 callers. The raiser was playing with a big stack, but effective stacks for the hand was 200. Flop came K22, and the raiser bet 35, getting called by a female regular who plays decent, if not a bit station-y. The turn was a 6, putting 2 clubs on board, and the PF raiser checks, and the woman bets 50, leaving about 125 behind. The PF raiser quickly says all-in. After a very brief consideration, she calls. The river is a blank, and the PF raiser is hesitant to flip his cards. She tables 99 and he mucks.

I thought he did a credible job of repping AK, AA or KK there, but apparently she didn't. She seemed to think that betting a K would have been odd on that flop, which I disagree with, at least in regards to my game.

Weak-tight

This was the first hand that I think I really misplayed. UTG (66 total) raises to 14, UTG+3 (stack of about 900, very aggressive opening in the last orbit, but he has shown down AK twice and KK once, so he may just be running hot) 3-bets to 46. I have QcQs on the button, with 240 behind. I am not sure what to do, as I think stack sizes are awkward to both call, and to shove. I think folding is actually fine here, though I decide to just call. UTG shoves his 66, and UTG+3 calls (I'm not sure if he could have re-raised here, I forget the rule there, but him not asking made me feel a little more re-assured). I decided to just call, as I didn't want to ask and tip the strength of my hand any more than I already had.

Flop was K76, and UTG+3 checked to me, I elected to check behind, as I had seen him check the flop with strong hands up to this point and then bet the turn. The turn was a 9, and he led 60. I was really leaning towards a call, but the fact that there was no side pot led me into a fold. He had TT, while UTG had KQ, so had I 4 bet shoved pre-flop, I would have likely taken the whole pot, unless UTG was totally steaming and decided to go for it.

Missed opportunity

Another one that I misplayed. Same player from above hand raised to 12, and I 3 bet in position on the button to 36 with QsQc again, and he flatted. Flop was Q64. He checked, and I should have checked, as I think he would have bet any turn. Instead I bet 45, and he folded.

Getting cute

A few limpers to the CO who raises to 10. He has just lost a buyin, but doesn't seem to be steaming. He does seem like the kind that could overplay a hand and pay me off. I'm in the SB with 8s7s and elect to call, even though this is probably an elementary fold, given my position, as well as my relative position to the raiser. But, given the limpers I can see this being 4-5 ways to the flop, so that was my thinking going in. As expected, 3 players call and we see the flop 5 handed. While the calling was all going on, I decided if I flopped a draw, I would lead out with it, in an attempt to trap the 3 players between me and the PF raiser.

Flop was Ts5x4s. As planned, I make a weak lead of 25 into a pot of 50. Unfortunately all fold to the PF raiser who calls. The turn is a 2x. I follow through and bet 55 on the turn, leaving myself about 125 for the river. My plan is to shove almost all rivers, and my only fear is that my turn bet gets raised. He calls, and I have his range heavily weighted towards 1 pair hands, as I am not expecting a draw, and I think a set would have raised me by now.

The river is the 5s, completing my flush, and pairing the board. I tank for a bit and then shove. He looks resigned, and then decides to call. I table my flush, expecting to be slid the pot, and he tables As6s for the nut flush. Definitely a kick in the teeth there, as I see that I would have likely won the pot with my river bet had the spade or ace not gotten there.

Finally some payback

UTG (same player from the weak tight and missed opportunity hands) opens to 12, I 3bet to 36 with AA(this is the 3rd or 4th time I have 3 bet him, and we haven't shown down yet, so I think he has to be getting suspicious). The BB (A6s nut flush guy) cold calls, and then UTG calls. So 3 to the flop with a pot of 105-ish.

Effective stacks are 280. Flop is 873r. They both check to me and I make an unorthodox check, partially for pot control, and partially for deception, knowing that UTG will bet the turn if given the chance.

The turn is a great card, another 3. THe BB checks, UTG bets 37, I smooth call, and the BB calls (very thrilled he didn't raise, as I am pretty sure I am good here because of it).

The river is a K. Both players check to me and now I know I am good. I elect to bet 90, the BB folds, and UTG goes into the tank before letting curiosity get the better of him and call. My hand is good and I don't see his cards.

In the end I turned a very small profit of 30, which was great considering I was stuck about 340 at one point. Definitely mangled a few hands, but still felt good to battle and eek out a profit.

Friday, September 09, 2011

Dream session at Northville Downs

Here is a brief report from Northville Downs, from about a week and a half ago. It was one of those dream kind of sessions where every move I made I was right. Every time I needed to duck some outs, I was able to dodge them, and any time I needed a card to make my hand, I was able to make it.

In my first major hand, I was in the SB with T7o. Folded around to the bad player on the button who chop-blocked limped, I completed, and the BB (aggressive spewy regular - ASR for now) checked. The button was a bad player, who had a tendency to donk out into pots where he was out of position. After witnessing this a few times I was able to take a pot away from him earlier in the orbit after he called my pre-flop raise and donked the flop. Flop comes 773. Often I lead this flop, but I decided to check given who the other 2 players were in the hand. Surprisingly it gets checked around. Turn is a 4. I check, hoping somebody will stab at it, and it gets checked around again. The river is another 4, making the board 77344. Now I bet $10, ASR folds, and the button raises to $30 (with about $145 more behind, which I cover). After thinking about it for about 15-30 seconds, I shove, which is a slight overbet. My plan is to test the Zeebo theorem (if any of you guys around earlier in the days of online poker remember), that most players will not fold a full house. He debates for about a minute, looks like he is leaning towards a fold, and then calls. I show my hand, and he nods and shows T4 offsuit. Shocking that I was able to get $175 out of him on the river, when the pot started at $6.

After I have gotten my stack at about 400 or so, I really start attacking some of the passive limpers. I would say that I am able to pick up 10-15 pots uncontested after 1-2 limps in the next 2 hours or so, just by raising anywhere from $12-16, so I feel that I have very good control of the table.

A short while later, ASR limps UTG, there are a few more limpers and I check in the BB with QTo. Flop comes J9x. Check to ASR who bets 10, LP calls, and I call. Turn is a K (told you I was hitting good). ASR bets 25, LP calls, and I raise to 75. ASR shoves for 135 total, and LP folds and I call. He asks if I have a straight and the river blanks and my hand is good. He doesn't show but says he had JJ. Not so sure I believe him. He doesn't seem the type to limp JJ.

I win another $100 on another hand with an older regular when my overpair holds against a flush draw with one overcard.

Another hand with ASR. I am really starting to roll at this point. He has rebought in for 200, and may even be up to 250, which I easily cover. Straddled pot by UTG. Fold to me and I raise to 15 UTG+1 with JJ. ASR calls, and there is one other caller in position, so pot is about $50. Flop comes 776. I lead $25, and ASR immediately and confidently says "$50." I'm not inclined to believe he has a 7 here, as he isn't the loosest of players pre-flop, and I also think he would have re-raised QQ+. After the other caller folds, I decide to make it $150, and he quickly folds.

Like I said in the beginning, just one of those sessions where everything went right and you feel like you can do no wrong. There was definitely some good strong play thrown in as well, but often the two can run hand in hand. I've definitely been on the other side of things, so I know the feeling.

Foxwoods Trip Report

In early August I was on a trip to Rhode Island with my wife and daughter. While trying to figure out things to do, I noticed Foxwoods was only about 45 minutes away from where I was staying, so I made a point of it to try to make a trip there. I was able to find a chance on a Wednesday night, so I made the drive, leaving about 9pm or so. I didn't have the call ahead number and I didn't feel like researching it, so I knew I may have a wait on my hands.

The resort wasn't exactly how I envisioned it, as I expected it to be a sprawling resort cut out of the middle of the forest. In fact, I was slightly confused when I missed my turnoff and saw MGM Foxwoods, which I didn't even know existed. I aimed for the original Foxwoods, assuming the poker room would be there somewhere. After parking in the garage and entering the casino, I was able to find the poker room fairly easily due to the signs, and it was down an escalator at basically the ground floor or slightly below the ground (I think, I was a little disoriented from going up the garage, and then up and down escalators and elevators).

I entered the poker room and put my name on both the 1/2 and 2/5 lists (which was dangerous, as I had only about 650 with me). I was about 15th on the 2/5 list, and about 25th on the 1/2 list. The lists ran through semi-quickly, and after about 20 minutes I got called to the 1/2 game. You can buy-in for 300, and I bought in for the max. The table however, didn't have much money, and I covered everybody. There were several 100-150 stacks. The first hand had a bunch of limps, and I took it down with a raise pre-flop with something like ATx. I was immediately called for the 2/5 game, and after observing another limp happy, tightly played post flop hand, I decided to take the seat in the 2/5 game.

The 2/5 was in another area of the room, but the way they run things with multiple floor people, responsible for their own section, and walkie talkies makes it run fairly smoothly. This table had a lot of decent sized stacks, however, the table only had 4 players on it as everyone else had ran to piss/smoke/eat/etc....I treaded water for a while, winning a few pots, losing a few pots. There were what I consider 2-3 tough players, a few average players, and one clear mark. There was more than your average amount of 3 betting from a few players in particular, who I had position on.

The first hand I tangled in, I opened in EP to 20 with 9h6h (very loose, I know, but that tends to be my preflop game, and it helps classify me as a bit of maniac, without a big cost generally). I was called in 3 places, and the flop came down Td9d6d. One of the blinds checked to me, and I led 55 into 80, and wasn't quite sure what I was going to do the rest of the hand if I encountered resistance. The player after me, who I considered the clear mark, almost immediately shoved for 350, and the other players folded. That left me to call about 295, into a pot a little less than 500. This was a tough spot, as I stated earlier, I was underfunded for the game on this trip, and basically only had one bullet with me. Generally in this spot I try to get a physical read on my opponent, so I started staring at him. He was initially leaning back, and when he noticed me looking at him, he immediately leaned forward in his chair and struck a very strong posture. Everything I was picking up off of him said "strong means weak", so I started weighing his range more strongly to weak made hands like AT with no diamonds, and hands with a bare Ad. Made flushes, made straights, and sets comprised a much smaller part of his range. As I continued to look at him he began to look uncomfortable, so I announced call and slid the chips across the line. After I slid them I knew I was correct by his reaction, we kept the cards turned down, the turn was a 2x, and the river was a terrible 8d. He took a few seconds to roll over Ad6x, to scoop the pot. It turned out I was 56% on the call against his actual holdings.

That hand hurt, as it knocked me down to about 250. I continued to play but my heart really wasn't in it, and I dusted off another 100 or so before deciding to leave.

An interesting note which I wasn't prepared for. I ordered a bloody mary, and about 15 minutes later it arrived. What was surprising was that the drink was comped. I'm very accustomed to that in Vegas, but haven't run into it elsewhere.

An interesting hand occurred earlier in the night in which I was not involved. The bottom line is that on the turn the board was unpaired and king high, with 3 diamonds, the 3rd diamond hitting on the turn. A guy who someone said used to be a professional boxer who seemed like a solid player bet something like 80, and an Asian who looked like he lacked experience shoved for what amounted to 300 more. The boxer looked pained when this move was made. The pot was heads-up, so without saying anything, he turned his cards over, exposing a 9 high flush. The Asian guy, apparently thinking this constituted a fold, turned over his cards, showing a set of Kings. The boxer looked confused for a second, and then said call. The board ran out a blank, and the boxer shipped the pot. The Asian guy looked real confused, not realizing what had happened. Eventually the floor was called, and the Asian was made aware that in a heads-up pot, you can expose your cards. He left the table immediately. I felt bad for him for a multitude of reasons, but it definitely goes to show that you need to understand the rules of the cardroom you are playing in.

Tuesday, September 06, 2011

2011 $250 Redraft team

Here's the results of my redraft. Scoring is same as auction team, PPR, and you have to start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 FLEX.

Last year I went 5-8 in the league with a team that everyone loved. I was bit by Turner, Marshall and Shonn Greene all underachieving last year.

In this draft, you got to pick your draft spot and I got the #2 choice. I wanted Rice or Charles, and I looked at 12 high stakes draft leagues to see where players were going. The first choice picked the #3 spot, so I picked the #4 spot. In all of the leagues I looked at, one of Rice and Charles were there. The draft also uses 3rd round reversal, meaning the 3rd round goes the same order as the 2nd, and then snakes from there.

My strategy was again to get strong at WR, and go QB very late.

1.04 - Mendenall - Controversial choice here. Rice and Charles went 2 and 3. I hate ADP this year and didn't want him. Felt Rashard was a better pick. Flame away.

2.09 - Wallace - Love him this year. He was who I pegged in every mock I did. Not thrilled about the PIT-PIT start, but there are worse offenses I could lock in.

3.09 - Welker - PPR monster. With Ocho drawing a bit of attention, think his catch numbers may go back up, though his TD numbers will likely go down. Considered Mike Williams and Blount here.

4.04 - DeAngelo - Looks like I am going all-in on him this year. Definitely scares me, but the other RB's and WR's I liked for this spot were gone.

5.09 - Britt - Another one I am all-in on. Considered nobody else.

6.04 - Lynch - Wanted to go WR, but they were picked pretty thin. Considered V. Davis here.

7.09 - S. Rice - Definitely need WR's. His QB situation scares me, as does this new injury which happened after the pick was made.

8.04 - Meachem - Like the pick , and like him as a WR5 with big upside.

9.09 - Little - Got my 6th WR, another home run pick. Maybe could have waited, but there was nobody else I liked there.

10.04 - Woodhead - Suprised how good he was last year, and he can be a capable RB2/3 since he gets so many touches. Think the Pats will still keep him involved. Probably a need pick here since my RB2 scares the piss out of me.

11.09 - Cutler - I personally hate him, but love his prospects for big #'s this year. They got rid of Olsen, and will be turning the WR's loose this year.

12.04 - G. Olsen - Was going to go with Flacco here, but he went between my picks. Need a TE, and he could be the focal point of their passing game.

13.09 - Fred Davis - As I said in the other draft, could be huge.

14.04 - Cassel - Barf, but needed a backup QB.

15.09 - Thomas Jones - Meh, just trying to get a few RB's that have some potential, since I am fairly set at WR.

16.04 - Forsett - He's a handcuff who has proven capable in limited work starting.

17.09 - Redman - Another cuff.

18.04 - Taiwan Jones - Stranger things have happened, and Oakland's running game has been great in the recent past. DMC and Bush have never been pictures of health.

Overall - Jury is still out here. If DeAngelo shows up, this team could be very good. If not, it will be a struggle.

2011 Auction $250 team

Here's the results of my auction draft. Scoring is PPR, and you have to start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 FLEX.

Last year I went 11-2 in the league with a team that none of you guys really liked, and lost in the semi's because I failed to notice my TE on the inactive list, and would have won starting my backup. $1000 mistake as I would have won the finals.

My strategy was to not spend a lot on anyone, and try to get very deep at WR as I feel that is the way to win this style of league. RB is not near as important, and I would like to start 4 WR's most weeks.

$400 salary cap, basically twice what me and Labelle were allotted when we split the WCOFF auction team, with the same exact scoring.

QB: Schaub 20, Leinart 1

I got a QB I can start every week for a decent price. I didn't want to spend any more on QB, so I rolled without a backup. His bye week is week 11, so I can scour the waiver wire until then. The lack of a backup means I am starting Leinart if he gets hurt, which is ok by me as I think most QB's could be serviceable in that system. In fact, would rather go Leinart then Cassel if that situation happens.

RB: Forte 72, Deangelo 47, Lynch 28, BJGE 15, Snelling 12, McGahee 9, Forsett 1

Forte is a PPR beast. Deangelo scares me, but I thought he was value. I think Lynch is very underrated this year, and can even be a #2 if DeAngelo flops. BJGE is strictly a bye week or injury fill-in. Snelling is a lottery pick, as I think Turner is on his last legs. Willis will be a TD vulture, and Forsett is just a low end handcuff who could pay off.

WR: MWilliams TB 52, Britt 36, Garcon 35, Little 13, Meachem 9, MWilliams SEA 8, Bennett 7

Didn't do as well as I hoped here. I like all of my guys, but I love them one slot lower than they are in my lineup. Williams will have to step up to achieve #1 status. Britt could be a #1, but he also could be a total bust (he is this years Bowe in my eyes). Garcon I always liked, but this was before the Peyton stuff came back out. Little I think could be starter potential in Cleveland, and I also like Meachem's chances with Colston's knee about to fall apart. The bad news is figuring out when to start him and Little. BMW may be a steal, since Rice is dinged up, and he was a great PPR guy last year. Bennett could be the lead guy in Martz's system.

TE: Daniels 27, Fred Davis 2

I had Daniels pegged as my #3 TE on the board, but had to pay for him, as he was one of the last upper tier guys left. Should have gone for Vernon at 25 earlier in the draft, but figured Daniels to be in the 20 range. I do have the Schaub/Daniels hookup though. Fred Davis could be huge, as I don't think Cooley plays much this year.

Overall: I give myself a B- here. I did a lot of pre-work, made a budget, and stuck to my budget. The problem was that a lot of the guys I was very high on went for more $ than I had planned them to go for, reducing my ability to grab other guys.