I have bit my tongue for far too long on this issue (unless you ask my closest friends or my wife). This Jose Valverde experiment is annoying the absolute piss out of me for more reasons than I can count (though I will try in the below post).
The raw numbers:
I thought we were through with this mess at the end of last year. I could see it coming a mile away....anyone with a reasonable baseball IQ who watches the game and understands statistics could see it coming. The guy clearly wasn't the same pitcher in 2012 that we was in previous seasons. Here is his K/INN rate since 2007, the year he became a full time closer with Arizona: 1.21, 1.15, 1.04, 1.00, 0.95, 0.70. Pretty distinct trend there, and something that you could see plainly with the naked eye. The guy was simply struggling to miss bats (more on that later), which is the primary thing a pitcher can control.
What makes this more annoying is that I would have to read articles, and hear people on sports radio touting his high save percentage, and that he is still getting the job done. This was exactly the wrong kind of negative reinforcement that the Tigers brass did not need, as they were constantly putting a pitcher into a critical situation, who was getting by on pure good fortune in a small sample size.
He has 2 pitches
I only say this because I've heard a rumor that Valverde actually has 2 pitches, a fastball, and a splitter. I say it's a rumor because I can't recall seeing anything other than a fastball in the last 1 year plus. Let's first ignore the absurdity of any pitcher ever getting to the highest level of the game and only throwing 1 pitch - a fastball, as it seems ridiculous to me to for it to even be done at a high school level.
So let's first assume that throwing only 1 pitch is rational. If that's the case, you would have to assume that fastball is a top shelf plus pitch, probably lighting up the radar gun near 100 MPH with a good deal of movement, and perhaps even good location and command. That's not the case with Valverde, his fastball regularly clocks in around 91-94 MPH, with the occasional blip at 96 MPH if he somehow catches a hot radar gun. Movement??? What movement, the damn thing seems to be straight as an arrow, flat with zero drop. The capper to this? He can't even control it, evidenced by his recent outing on May 12th, where he walked the leadoff hitter, and throughout the inning had thrown more balls than strikes.
During yesterday's outing, Rod Allen, the Tigers color commentator, who has rarely had an insight that I considered to be groundbreaking, pointed out that of Valverde's first 20 pitches, all were fastballs. No shit!!! If Allen can recognize it, then you better believe other teams are going to pick up on it (unless you are as blind as the Tigers apparently).
Imagine your hitting approach when facing Valverde. You have to be patient, as you don't know whether he is going to throw strikes. You are sitting dead red on fastball, as there is zero chance you are going to receive anything other than that. If you happen to get behind in the count by letting a good fastball go by, not to worry, you are certainly going to get another one.
At this point (and it was the same last year), Valverde is throwing the ball hard, trying to get it over the plate, with zero movement and basically hoping that the other team either doesn't hit it hard, or hits it right at somebody.
Intangibles - settling effect on the bullpen
It's been argued, primarily by Tigers brass, that installing Valverde as the closer has a settling effect on the rest of the bullpen, as the other pitchers better know their roles. They do have a point to this, but this could also be achieved by naming me the closer....or anyone else on the team.
Others may argue that if you don't have a replacement in mind, then you can't argue Valverde being the closer. To that I agree, so my response is ANYONE on the roster, and quite possibly anybody on the AAA roster. I would even allow Don Kelly a shot at it, at least he threw an off-speed pitch in the inning he pitched a couple of years ago.
Conclusions:
There comes a point when the tangibles begin to outweigh the intangibles, we can only hope that day comes before the real games start (and this is assuming we win the division and are in the playoffs, which is a giant leap this early in the season. Having Valverde as the closer is doing the entire team and fanbase a great disservice, as it is not putting the team in anywhere near the best position to win a game, championship, etc....
Monday, May 13, 2013
Thursday, May 02, 2013
2013 Kentucky Derby preview
My prediction is at the bottom of this lengthy post. I may update this as I think about the race a little further.
1. Black Onyx - Disastrous draw for him. His running style seems to be the worst for this spot possible, as he tends to stalk close to the lead (within 5 lengths of the lead at every call in his career). It will be very difficult to get good position without either using a lot of his horse early, or laying way back and coming with one big run. Add to that his best two races have been on turf and poly, means you are asking him to do an awful lot.
Verdict - I can play him for 4th, and maybe 3rd since I think he will be coming late, but I think any better is asking for the world.
2. Oxbow - Another who did not get the best draw. Off of a bit of a bad trip in his last race, and if you excuse the last race he would be a bit more highly regarded. Ridden by Gary Stevens, and out of Awesome Again, meaning the distance should not be a problem. The bad news is that in his last 3 races he has been beaten by 4 of these, and they are not the most highly regarded of the bunch.
Verdict - I have a feeling I'm going to want him on my tickets. The jockey/trainer combo, combined with the pedigree and the long odds make him one of the more attractive if not the most attractive bomb in the field. Not enough for the win, but maybe as high as 2nd.
3. Revolutionary - Off of 3 straight wins, and out of the red hot barn of Pletcher. It was nice to see him race and win outside of New York too at the Fairgrounds. The bad news is that he was life and death to beat Mylute, a horse who I don't think wants any part of more distance. He does have a 102 BSF in his maiden win at Aqueduct, but it was on an off track, which is something I am always skeptical of. Take that race out of his record, and his highest BSF is 93, which puts him outside of the top players. I like the War Pass connections, and Borel in the Derby can never be a bad thing. He seems to be training awesome at Churchill, and with Churchill being a bit of a unique surface in horses taking to it, you can't ignore it.
Verdict - I like him as one of my key horses, though I think he is a cut below the top tier. It would be a terrible idea to ignore him based on the awesome training tab leading up to the race, and the Borel/Churchill factor. That being said, he is likely to be a bit overbet due to Calvin.
4. Golden Soul - Another who could crash the party coming late, and make tickets pay a ton. He closed well in the La Derby, but was no match for the winner. Good result in past race at Churchill, and Albarado knows Churchill.
Verdict - On my tickets for 4th for sure, and maybe as high as 3rd.
5. Normandy Invasion - By Tapit, who is a great sire, but he's never been known to sire horses for much more distance than a miler. Did finish less than a length off Verrazano, but you have to wonder how wound up they had Verrazano for that race, since they didn't need it to make the field. His best races have been at Aqueduct, which is a track I am always a little skeptical of, as it seems to be one of those "horse for the course" type of places. He seems to be training very well leading up to this.
Verdict - I think I can play him for as high as the win in some tickets, but I'm just not sure the mile and a quarter is right for him. I feel like he is going to be overbet. I do have a small future wager on him at 17-1, but that would not even come close to covering my Derby bets.
6. Mylute - Looked like he had every chance to beat Revolutionary, yet couldn't get past him in the Louisiana Derby. It won't get any easier with added distance and a much tougher field. He closed well in the Louisiana Derby, which was a new dimension for him, but that may have been more due to the swift early pace, rather than discovering a new running style. Top speed figure of 93, combined with distance limitations being out of Midnight Lute don't give me a feeling he is ready to take a step forward with the added distance.
Verdict: I'm not particularly fond of him, but may have to use him since he will be one of the few who are running late.
7. Giant Finish - Best race thus far has been on Poly, and he couldn't beat Black Onyx while being in the front end of a slow pace. There are better horses who will be near the front end than this one. In my book he is a toss.
Verdict: Toss him
8. Goldencents - Needed a big Santa Anita Derby to get in, and responded with a lifetime best performance, and perhaps most importantly a 105 beyer. The SA Derby was a path to win the Derby last year, validating it as a prep race again now that it is on dirt. Rookie jockey, coupled with a horse that has had trouble relaxing in some of his races can be a somewhat scary combination (though the rookie jock had no problem last year). I also question his ability at the distance, being out of Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday. We saw with Shenghai Bobby just how much distance he wanted.
Verdict - The good news is I have a future bet on him at 49-1, the bad news is that I don't think it cashes. I think he's going to be very close to the lead, and unless allowed to go very slowly and freely on that lead, I think he's a player until the far turn, when he will get swallowed up by the closers. My initial inclination is to leave him off the tickets entirely, as reckless as that may seem.
May 2nd update: Upon further review though, that does seem totally reckless to ignore him. He has a tie for the highest last race Beyer, has the highest last race Beyer in the field (an angle that has produced a few surprising longshot winners in Charismatic and War Emblem), and will be forwardly placed in a race without a lot of pace. I still think he will be too aggressive early and not be able to hold for the distance, but ignoring him could be a fatal flaw.
9. Overanalyze - From the Pletcher barn, which means you have to respect him. His Arkansas Derby win was visually impressive, but yielded a very low Beyer of 88. On the down side, a turd like Frac Daddy finished 2nd, which immediately calls into question the quality of the race. Out of Dixie Union, which I believe is the same sire as Union Rags, and those horses are always very well regarded. He showed big time ability in the Remsen Stakes as a 2 year old last year, throwing a 99 beyer. He hasn't broke 90 in either of his races this year yet, but the way he has been training leading up to this has been solid. He is very gutty as well, as it appeared that he would be beaten in the Remsen, after Normandy Invasion passed him, and he came again.
Verdict - I have a nice future bet on him also at 49-1. He is one that I am unsure what I am going to do with right now.
10. Palace Malice - By Curlin, it's a bit early to decide how good he is as a sire. He hasn't won since breaking his maiden at Saratoga in August, and his highest Beyer figure is a 94, with that number trending in the wrong direction as the distance increases. Without a significant improvement he is a cut below the best in this field, and he has been training OK leading up to this race, which just isn't good enough in my book.
Verdict - I think I will use him 4th if at all.
11. Lines of Battle - Until Aiden O'Brien proves to me he can travel here for the Derby and compete, he should continually be bet against. Same goes for horses traveling the Dubai route. But the simple truth is that the outsiders that I have been listing outside of the top contenders are so unappealing to me I have to search for a few who may be able to make some noise. He's out of War Front, which is respectable for getting the distance. He just won the UAE derby in decent fashion, however that field was thought to be somewhat weak. The fact that he has never raced on a dirt is scary enough, and it would make me feel a lot better if he were at Churchill training and growing accustomed to the track (ala Animal Kingdom), but I don't believe that has happened either.
Verdict: Unless I see a phenomenal love the track workout, I'm going to have to pass on him.
12. Itsmyluckyday - He nearly has the highest Beyer in the field, but is he just a horse for Gulfstream? He was looking like a potential Derby favorite, until Orb ran by him like he was tied to a post in the Florida Derby. He was still able to hang on for 2nd in that race. Reports have him training well leading up to the race. Sired by Lawyer Ron, who I don't believe is the most suited to mile and a quarter distance.
Verdict - He will be forwardly placed, and potentially in an ideal position on the far turn, and I wouldn't be surprised if he would make the lead on the turn or at the top of the stretch. I think it would be unwise to ignore him, especially because he may be one of the forgotten horses here, and go off at decent odds.
13. Falling Sky - May be the pace setter, or at least will be pressing the pace. Top beyer of a 92 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, nor does being sired by Lion Heart, who actually had the lead in the stretch of the 2004 Derby, but that was a day when early speed dominated, and the track was sloppy following a monsoon. It would take a similar result to let him hit the board in my opinion.
Verdict - Toss him
14. Verrazano - Looks to be the obvious Derby favorite, and deserving at that. Done nothing wrong so far, winning all of his starts, with 2 speed figures over 100 or better, including a 105, which is likely required to win this. Pletcher is hot as hell with his 3 year olds as well. His 4 wins are at 3 different tracks.
There is no bad with him right now, just questions. His sire, More Than Ready, was 4th in the 2000 Kentucky Derby, and sure didn't seem like he wanted that last furlong. I also can't recall any of his progeny being championship caliber horses at the classic distance. He has been very forwardly placed in all of his races thus far. Typically in the Derby you want to be sitting a little further back due what is usually a hot pace. Can he relax enough to get a good trip?
Verdict - He looks to be a dominant player, and he should be ignored at your own risk.
15. Charming Kitten - He's a Kitten's Joy horse who just threw his career high Beyer on polytrack....hmmm....and now he's coming to the Derby. We already went through this with Dean's Kitten a few years ago, and he ran 14th more highly regarded than this one. That career high Beyer, again on Polytrack, was only an 88. So you have to find reason to think he is going to improve double digit points on a surface that Kitten's Joy progeny have proven to not have an affinity for, to believe he can hit the board. And he also has to do it on a surface that he has never run on before, as well as only having a 3rd in 2 starts on the Poly. He does have Pletcher, but he's probably fairly busy with his top contenders.
Verdict - Toss him
16. Orb - Unbeaten in his last 4 starts. Speed figures are a little bit light, with a high of 97, however perhaps more impressively, he closed 3 times at Gulfstream, most of which is on the outside, which is atypical of that track, where a traditional inside speed bias exists. Sired by Malibu Moon, with AP Indy in his bloodline, the distance shouldn't be a problem. He also is not a typical 1 run deep closer, as he has been within 5 lengths of the front at all calls of both the Florida Derby and his claiming win in January.
On 4/29 he had what many consider to be the most impressive work of anyone in the field, and he has Rosario on the mount, who is winning everything in sight, and riding with extreme confidence right now.
Verdict - He feels like a key horse to me if there ever was one.
17. Will Take Charge - He kinda came out of nowhere to win the Rebel at 28-1, following an awful performance in the Southwest Stakes. That win was at Oaklawn, which is a track that tends to portend future Churchill success, but then again so was the Southwest. He raced at Churchill last year, finishing last in a Grade 2 race out of 13 horses. Looking at that field now and their poor recent results, it has to lead you to believe that race was a fluke. With a top speed figure of 95, in a race that I already believe was a fluke, leads me to believe that this horse is a throwaway to the tickets. As for the pedigree, Unbridled was a Derby winner, but his son, Unbridled's Song was more of a miler (led the Derby top of stretch before fading to 5th in 1996).
Verdict - Toss him
18. Frac Daddy - I'm not a big fan of Scat Daddy horses in general, and this one has been a turd this year, having to gut out a 2nd place on less than 2 weeks rest in a weak Arkansas Derby to make this field. What gives on a bit of pause though is that his 2 best races last year both occurred at Churchill Downs. The question you have to answer for yourself is "Is he a better horse at Churchill, or was he a better horse last year?" Nothing he has done this year says he can even hit the board, with an 81 beyer for a high!!! He did throw a 91 at Churchill last year, so it at least makes me consider him.
Verdict - He should be an easy toss based on current form, but the Churchill results will at least make me consider playing him in 3rd place, but probably not at all above that.
19. Java's War - I was very impressed visually with his Blue Grass, though the speed figure was only 89. His inability to break cleanly in any of his starts is very worrisome. With this year's pace scenario more likely to be tepid than hot, getting a clean break is even more paramount. Having Leparoux in a big race in a Derby field, I would expect a less than clean trip, and probably a belated effort late on the outside. Good post position draw though for him, actually helps Leparoux as being on the outside should help him stay out of trouble.
Verdict - The pace scenario is likely to not be in his favor, his speed figures show him to be outside of the top contenders, and his inability to break clean are huge negatives, along with a jockey who until proven that he can navigate a good Derby trip has to be doubted are all very negative factors. I think I can play him to be picking up pieces late in 4th place, and potentially as high as 3rd.
20. Vyjack - Has done little wrong in his career, winning his first 4 races, and then finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial, losing to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. On the bad side, his top beyer is a 96, and his top Beyer at a distance of a mile or more is 93, which is a trend in the wrong direction. My thinking is that he is a horse that absolutely does not want any added ground, and while seeming to be game, will more likely be getting passed rather than passing horses.
Preliminary verdict - There are too many I like better with a similar running style, and there are some that I think that will be coming late that will make me pass on playing this one. You have to take a stand somewhere.
Prediction: I drilled it big time in 2011 calling the exacta in Animal Kingdom and Nehro, hitting the tri, and being a part of a super, all in all killing it that year. Last year, not so much, but I thought last year was an insanely difficult race. This year I think the favorites are just a lot better than the also rans. Note that if the race is on a muddy/off track, I will stick with this, but have a lot less faith in my selections since I suck in wet Churchill conditions.
Predicted order finish:
1st - Orb
2nd - Revolutionary
3rd - Verrazano
4th - Java's War
5th - Itsmyluckyday
1. Black Onyx - Disastrous draw for him. His running style seems to be the worst for this spot possible, as he tends to stalk close to the lead (within 5 lengths of the lead at every call in his career). It will be very difficult to get good position without either using a lot of his horse early, or laying way back and coming with one big run. Add to that his best two races have been on turf and poly, means you are asking him to do an awful lot.
Verdict - I can play him for 4th, and maybe 3rd since I think he will be coming late, but I think any better is asking for the world.
2. Oxbow - Another who did not get the best draw. Off of a bit of a bad trip in his last race, and if you excuse the last race he would be a bit more highly regarded. Ridden by Gary Stevens, and out of Awesome Again, meaning the distance should not be a problem. The bad news is that in his last 3 races he has been beaten by 4 of these, and they are not the most highly regarded of the bunch.
Verdict - I have a feeling I'm going to want him on my tickets. The jockey/trainer combo, combined with the pedigree and the long odds make him one of the more attractive if not the most attractive bomb in the field. Not enough for the win, but maybe as high as 2nd.
3. Revolutionary - Off of 3 straight wins, and out of the red hot barn of Pletcher. It was nice to see him race and win outside of New York too at the Fairgrounds. The bad news is that he was life and death to beat Mylute, a horse who I don't think wants any part of more distance. He does have a 102 BSF in his maiden win at Aqueduct, but it was on an off track, which is something I am always skeptical of. Take that race out of his record, and his highest BSF is 93, which puts him outside of the top players. I like the War Pass connections, and Borel in the Derby can never be a bad thing. He seems to be training awesome at Churchill, and with Churchill being a bit of a unique surface in horses taking to it, you can't ignore it.
Verdict - I like him as one of my key horses, though I think he is a cut below the top tier. It would be a terrible idea to ignore him based on the awesome training tab leading up to the race, and the Borel/Churchill factor. That being said, he is likely to be a bit overbet due to Calvin.
4. Golden Soul - Another who could crash the party coming late, and make tickets pay a ton. He closed well in the La Derby, but was no match for the winner. Good result in past race at Churchill, and Albarado knows Churchill.
Verdict - On my tickets for 4th for sure, and maybe as high as 3rd.
5. Normandy Invasion - By Tapit, who is a great sire, but he's never been known to sire horses for much more distance than a miler. Did finish less than a length off Verrazano, but you have to wonder how wound up they had Verrazano for that race, since they didn't need it to make the field. His best races have been at Aqueduct, which is a track I am always a little skeptical of, as it seems to be one of those "horse for the course" type of places. He seems to be training very well leading up to this.
Verdict - I think I can play him for as high as the win in some tickets, but I'm just not sure the mile and a quarter is right for him. I feel like he is going to be overbet. I do have a small future wager on him at 17-1, but that would not even come close to covering my Derby bets.
6. Mylute - Looked like he had every chance to beat Revolutionary, yet couldn't get past him in the Louisiana Derby. It won't get any easier with added distance and a much tougher field. He closed well in the Louisiana Derby, which was a new dimension for him, but that may have been more due to the swift early pace, rather than discovering a new running style. Top speed figure of 93, combined with distance limitations being out of Midnight Lute don't give me a feeling he is ready to take a step forward with the added distance.
Verdict: I'm not particularly fond of him, but may have to use him since he will be one of the few who are running late.
7. Giant Finish - Best race thus far has been on Poly, and he couldn't beat Black Onyx while being in the front end of a slow pace. There are better horses who will be near the front end than this one. In my book he is a toss.
Verdict: Toss him
8. Goldencents - Needed a big Santa Anita Derby to get in, and responded with a lifetime best performance, and perhaps most importantly a 105 beyer. The SA Derby was a path to win the Derby last year, validating it as a prep race again now that it is on dirt. Rookie jockey, coupled with a horse that has had trouble relaxing in some of his races can be a somewhat scary combination (though the rookie jock had no problem last year). I also question his ability at the distance, being out of Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday. We saw with Shenghai Bobby just how much distance he wanted.
Verdict - The good news is I have a future bet on him at 49-1, the bad news is that I don't think it cashes. I think he's going to be very close to the lead, and unless allowed to go very slowly and freely on that lead, I think he's a player until the far turn, when he will get swallowed up by the closers. My initial inclination is to leave him off the tickets entirely, as reckless as that may seem.
May 2nd update: Upon further review though, that does seem totally reckless to ignore him. He has a tie for the highest last race Beyer, has the highest last race Beyer in the field (an angle that has produced a few surprising longshot winners in Charismatic and War Emblem), and will be forwardly placed in a race without a lot of pace. I still think he will be too aggressive early and not be able to hold for the distance, but ignoring him could be a fatal flaw.
9. Overanalyze - From the Pletcher barn, which means you have to respect him. His Arkansas Derby win was visually impressive, but yielded a very low Beyer of 88. On the down side, a turd like Frac Daddy finished 2nd, which immediately calls into question the quality of the race. Out of Dixie Union, which I believe is the same sire as Union Rags, and those horses are always very well regarded. He showed big time ability in the Remsen Stakes as a 2 year old last year, throwing a 99 beyer. He hasn't broke 90 in either of his races this year yet, but the way he has been training leading up to this has been solid. He is very gutty as well, as it appeared that he would be beaten in the Remsen, after Normandy Invasion passed him, and he came again.
Verdict - I have a nice future bet on him also at 49-1. He is one that I am unsure what I am going to do with right now.
10. Palace Malice - By Curlin, it's a bit early to decide how good he is as a sire. He hasn't won since breaking his maiden at Saratoga in August, and his highest Beyer figure is a 94, with that number trending in the wrong direction as the distance increases. Without a significant improvement he is a cut below the best in this field, and he has been training OK leading up to this race, which just isn't good enough in my book.
Verdict - I think I will use him 4th if at all.
11. Lines of Battle - Until Aiden O'Brien proves to me he can travel here for the Derby and compete, he should continually be bet against. Same goes for horses traveling the Dubai route. But the simple truth is that the outsiders that I have been listing outside of the top contenders are so unappealing to me I have to search for a few who may be able to make some noise. He's out of War Front, which is respectable for getting the distance. He just won the UAE derby in decent fashion, however that field was thought to be somewhat weak. The fact that he has never raced on a dirt is scary enough, and it would make me feel a lot better if he were at Churchill training and growing accustomed to the track (ala Animal Kingdom), but I don't believe that has happened either.
Verdict: Unless I see a phenomenal love the track workout, I'm going to have to pass on him.
12. Itsmyluckyday - He nearly has the highest Beyer in the field, but is he just a horse for Gulfstream? He was looking like a potential Derby favorite, until Orb ran by him like he was tied to a post in the Florida Derby. He was still able to hang on for 2nd in that race. Reports have him training well leading up to the race. Sired by Lawyer Ron, who I don't believe is the most suited to mile and a quarter distance.
Verdict - He will be forwardly placed, and potentially in an ideal position on the far turn, and I wouldn't be surprised if he would make the lead on the turn or at the top of the stretch. I think it would be unwise to ignore him, especially because he may be one of the forgotten horses here, and go off at decent odds.
13. Falling Sky - May be the pace setter, or at least will be pressing the pace. Top beyer of a 92 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, nor does being sired by Lion Heart, who actually had the lead in the stretch of the 2004 Derby, but that was a day when early speed dominated, and the track was sloppy following a monsoon. It would take a similar result to let him hit the board in my opinion.
Verdict - Toss him
14. Verrazano - Looks to be the obvious Derby favorite, and deserving at that. Done nothing wrong so far, winning all of his starts, with 2 speed figures over 100 or better, including a 105, which is likely required to win this. Pletcher is hot as hell with his 3 year olds as well. His 4 wins are at 3 different tracks.
There is no bad with him right now, just questions. His sire, More Than Ready, was 4th in the 2000 Kentucky Derby, and sure didn't seem like he wanted that last furlong. I also can't recall any of his progeny being championship caliber horses at the classic distance. He has been very forwardly placed in all of his races thus far. Typically in the Derby you want to be sitting a little further back due what is usually a hot pace. Can he relax enough to get a good trip?
Verdict - He looks to be a dominant player, and he should be ignored at your own risk.
15. Charming Kitten - He's a Kitten's Joy horse who just threw his career high Beyer on polytrack....hmmm....and now he's coming to the Derby. We already went through this with Dean's Kitten a few years ago, and he ran 14th more highly regarded than this one. That career high Beyer, again on Polytrack, was only an 88. So you have to find reason to think he is going to improve double digit points on a surface that Kitten's Joy progeny have proven to not have an affinity for, to believe he can hit the board. And he also has to do it on a surface that he has never run on before, as well as only having a 3rd in 2 starts on the Poly. He does have Pletcher, but he's probably fairly busy with his top contenders.
Verdict - Toss him
16. Orb - Unbeaten in his last 4 starts. Speed figures are a little bit light, with a high of 97, however perhaps more impressively, he closed 3 times at Gulfstream, most of which is on the outside, which is atypical of that track, where a traditional inside speed bias exists. Sired by Malibu Moon, with AP Indy in his bloodline, the distance shouldn't be a problem. He also is not a typical 1 run deep closer, as he has been within 5 lengths of the front at all calls of both the Florida Derby and his claiming win in January.
On 4/29 he had what many consider to be the most impressive work of anyone in the field, and he has Rosario on the mount, who is winning everything in sight, and riding with extreme confidence right now.
Verdict - He feels like a key horse to me if there ever was one.
17. Will Take Charge - He kinda came out of nowhere to win the Rebel at 28-1, following an awful performance in the Southwest Stakes. That win was at Oaklawn, which is a track that tends to portend future Churchill success, but then again so was the Southwest. He raced at Churchill last year, finishing last in a Grade 2 race out of 13 horses. Looking at that field now and their poor recent results, it has to lead you to believe that race was a fluke. With a top speed figure of 95, in a race that I already believe was a fluke, leads me to believe that this horse is a throwaway to the tickets. As for the pedigree, Unbridled was a Derby winner, but his son, Unbridled's Song was more of a miler (led the Derby top of stretch before fading to 5th in 1996).
Verdict - Toss him
18. Frac Daddy - I'm not a big fan of Scat Daddy horses in general, and this one has been a turd this year, having to gut out a 2nd place on less than 2 weeks rest in a weak Arkansas Derby to make this field. What gives on a bit of pause though is that his 2 best races last year both occurred at Churchill Downs. The question you have to answer for yourself is "Is he a better horse at Churchill, or was he a better horse last year?" Nothing he has done this year says he can even hit the board, with an 81 beyer for a high!!! He did throw a 91 at Churchill last year, so it at least makes me consider him.
Verdict - He should be an easy toss based on current form, but the Churchill results will at least make me consider playing him in 3rd place, but probably not at all above that.
19. Java's War - I was very impressed visually with his Blue Grass, though the speed figure was only 89. His inability to break cleanly in any of his starts is very worrisome. With this year's pace scenario more likely to be tepid than hot, getting a clean break is even more paramount. Having Leparoux in a big race in a Derby field, I would expect a less than clean trip, and probably a belated effort late on the outside. Good post position draw though for him, actually helps Leparoux as being on the outside should help him stay out of trouble.
Verdict - The pace scenario is likely to not be in his favor, his speed figures show him to be outside of the top contenders, and his inability to break clean are huge negatives, along with a jockey who until proven that he can navigate a good Derby trip has to be doubted are all very negative factors. I think I can play him to be picking up pieces late in 4th place, and potentially as high as 3rd.
20. Vyjack - Has done little wrong in his career, winning his first 4 races, and then finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial, losing to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. On the bad side, his top beyer is a 96, and his top Beyer at a distance of a mile or more is 93, which is a trend in the wrong direction. My thinking is that he is a horse that absolutely does not want any added ground, and while seeming to be game, will more likely be getting passed rather than passing horses.
Preliminary verdict - There are too many I like better with a similar running style, and there are some that I think that will be coming late that will make me pass on playing this one. You have to take a stand somewhere.
Prediction: I drilled it big time in 2011 calling the exacta in Animal Kingdom and Nehro, hitting the tri, and being a part of a super, all in all killing it that year. Last year, not so much, but I thought last year was an insanely difficult race. This year I think the favorites are just a lot better than the also rans. Note that if the race is on a muddy/off track, I will stick with this, but have a lot less faith in my selections since I suck in wet Churchill conditions.
Predicted order finish:
1st - Orb
2nd - Revolutionary
3rd - Verrazano
4th - Java's War
5th - Itsmyluckyday
Monday, February 25, 2013
A wild, deep game gets even wilder
With live racing still going on at Northville Downs, the cash games seem to be a little wilder, with the occasional horse player trying their hand at poker, and generally a busier than normal poker room that creates more of an action-y vibe. I got in to the room around 730pm with plans to play for the rest of the night.
The primary players driving action was Abe on my immediate left, a very loose action player, who plays way too many hands and I consider generally to be bad, though he can at least put you to tough decisions. He was playing reasonably deep stacked the whole game ($300-600).
Eric, who I have played with before, could be pretty good, but on this particular night he was drinking and playing way too LAGGY. In general he plays too many hands. He knows me by name, and generally gives me a pretty wide berth. He was on his 4th buy-in before he started winning, and built his stack up to around $900 when the night was coming to a close.
Later on Shaun got into the game, which drove the action to an entirely different level.
I would estimate 1/2 of the pots were straddled, and a lot of the raises even in unstraddled pots were unusually large. That created a table atmosphere where I could raise larger with my premium hands as I was still likely to get value.
The session started out rapid fire, as I picked up 4 pocket pairs in my first 5 hands.
Hand #1: My first hand of the night, I picked up 88 in the BB, in a pot that got limped all the way around. My options were make a big raise to try to thin the field, or check. Since quite a few of the players looked sticky from past experience, I elected to check. The flop came 3 overs and I check folded. It felt weak, but I didn't particularly like the raising option first hand of the night.
Hand #2: Another limped pot, of which there weren't many the rest of the night, I complete with 33 in the SB. Flop comes 6h3h2h. I lead 6 into an $8 pot, and get called by button, who I have never played with before. Turn is Ts, I bet $15, and he calls again. River is Kc, I make a weak bet to $21, and he raises to $42. His line felt so much like a recent 2/5 hand I played at the Bellagio where a guy slow played nut flush into my bets that I was blinded by that and ignored the immediate great odds the pot was offering and folded. He showed T6 for a turned two pair, that I'm sure he felt was best.
Hand #3: Very next hand, my stack at about $155 as I haven't even had a chance to top off, I get KK. Loose bad player raises to 15 in EP, one caller, and I make it 55 on the BTN. Bad player calls and we are HU, and caller goes all-in for less, with me having about 100 behind. Flop is Q9x, he checks, I bet 51, he shoves and I call. Board runs out and my hand is good.
Hand #4: After folding in the CO, I pick up JJ in the HJ. After limps I raise to 21 and get 2 callers. I flop an overpair and they check-fold to my bet.
Hand #5: In a straddled pot there are several limpers, and I make it 35 in the CO with KK. Abe calls on the BTN, along with Eric and one other player. Flop is Ac9c8s, checks to me, I check, and Abe immediately declares all-in for $280 (into a pot of $140). Both fold to me and I'm pretty sure I'm going to fold. I think there's a reasonable chance he has an ace, as well as a reasonable chance he is on JT. He tells me unsolicited "Whatever you want to do, run it once, run it twice...." I debate a little further, thinking more and more that he is drawing, but decide there are better spots to get it in, and fold. He shows JT.
Hand #6: Eric is stuck about 2 buy-ins now, and raises to 15 (playing about 130 or so). He has literally been raising at least 25% of the time, so suffice it to say he doesn't have to be very strong here. After one caller, I 3 bet AcTc to 55. Eric goes all-in after a few seconds, folds to me and I call and hold up vs A9.
Hand #7: A newer player who I could characterize on the tighter side opened UTG to 12, and after 2 callers I called on the BTN with T9s. Flop is 4 ways, and comes Q86, giving me a double gutter. He led $21, which didn't strike me as particularly strong, and got a call from one player. The original raiser had about $200 going into the hand. I debated my options, and didn't feel like his lead felt very strong, so I decided to raise, with the plan of probably calling if he shoved, and shoving most turns if called. The raiser thought for a bit and then called, and the other player folded. Turn was a total blank deuce. He checked and I confidently slid out a large stack of reds. He thought for about 15 seconds and then folded, showing a Q when he did. Eric wanted me to "show the bluff", and I quickly considered it but decided not to pour salt in the wound of the guy who folded.
Things calmed down for a while, as I tightened up and the cards weren't particulary attractive for a while. Was considering racking up and leaving a $400-500 winner, but with so much money in play I decided to hang around. Then things got interesting, a player named Shaun wanted to flip Eric for his stack. Apparently as back story Shaun had been on a massive heater, and had just taken 8K from a PLO game at a bowling alley.
Eric didn't want to do it, so Shaun bought in for $200, after asking to buy more and getting rebuffed. FIrst hand he goes all-in immediately and loses to a player with QQ. Very next hand after rebuying he does the same thing and beats the same players AA with 93. Then the very next hand he beats a different players AA with 98. All of these were all-in pre. Suddenly he has about $600 in front and is still raising to $100 pre every hand. He said his goal was to ruin our game, or take Eric's stack.
Hand #8: I limp AdJd in EP after a limper, and Shaun raises to $40 from the BB. Limper folds and I call. He says "Alright, we're gonna play some poker." I respond with a question "Are we??" Flop is AQT, he checks, and I check behind. Turn is a 5, he checks again, I bet $50 and he folds.
Hand #9: Shaun had gambled his stack away again, and was back down to $200. This hand brought up an interesting ethical spot, that I am curious how others would handle. Straddled pot by Eric (not sure why anyone would straddle or raise now with Shaun driving action on literally 100% of hands). Tommy calls (young player I have played with and beaten up on several times, very fun to have in the game though, and he originally set the unofficial straddle record when he did it for $160 sometime last year), and then I limp the straddle with AA. A few seconds before that, he asks if we mind if he buys in for another $200. Nobody objects and I say ok (following my limp). Then he raises to 100 before the chips are delivered to him. I ask him "Is that playing this hand?", and he says "Yes.". Tommy calls (leaving himself 80 or so more behind. Then I shove, and both players call. Tommy had JTs, and I have no idea what Shaun had. The board paired with 9's, but nothing else of significance, and my hand was good for a pot of nearly $1K.
I don't feel like I did anything wrong here by allowing it, as he had originally asked before the hand started, but still felt a bit conflicted by it. I know all he wanted to do was gamble, and he had no ill will about the hand in any way.
After that hand, the charity had sold out, so I played a few more hands and left a 4 figure winner for the session. Good times, and a nice little boost before the MSPT which I am planning on playing in at Firekeepers.
The primary players driving action was Abe on my immediate left, a very loose action player, who plays way too many hands and I consider generally to be bad, though he can at least put you to tough decisions. He was playing reasonably deep stacked the whole game ($300-600).
Eric, who I have played with before, could be pretty good, but on this particular night he was drinking and playing way too LAGGY. In general he plays too many hands. He knows me by name, and generally gives me a pretty wide berth. He was on his 4th buy-in before he started winning, and built his stack up to around $900 when the night was coming to a close.
Later on Shaun got into the game, which drove the action to an entirely different level.
I would estimate 1/2 of the pots were straddled, and a lot of the raises even in unstraddled pots were unusually large. That created a table atmosphere where I could raise larger with my premium hands as I was still likely to get value.
The session started out rapid fire, as I picked up 4 pocket pairs in my first 5 hands.
Hand #1: My first hand of the night, I picked up 88 in the BB, in a pot that got limped all the way around. My options were make a big raise to try to thin the field, or check. Since quite a few of the players looked sticky from past experience, I elected to check. The flop came 3 overs and I check folded. It felt weak, but I didn't particularly like the raising option first hand of the night.
Hand #2: Another limped pot, of which there weren't many the rest of the night, I complete with 33 in the SB. Flop comes 6h3h2h. I lead 6 into an $8 pot, and get called by button, who I have never played with before. Turn is Ts, I bet $15, and he calls again. River is Kc, I make a weak bet to $21, and he raises to $42. His line felt so much like a recent 2/5 hand I played at the Bellagio where a guy slow played nut flush into my bets that I was blinded by that and ignored the immediate great odds the pot was offering and folded. He showed T6 for a turned two pair, that I'm sure he felt was best.
Hand #3: Very next hand, my stack at about $155 as I haven't even had a chance to top off, I get KK. Loose bad player raises to 15 in EP, one caller, and I make it 55 on the BTN. Bad player calls and we are HU, and caller goes all-in for less, with me having about 100 behind. Flop is Q9x, he checks, I bet 51, he shoves and I call. Board runs out and my hand is good.
Hand #4: After folding in the CO, I pick up JJ in the HJ. After limps I raise to 21 and get 2 callers. I flop an overpair and they check-fold to my bet.
Hand #5: In a straddled pot there are several limpers, and I make it 35 in the CO with KK. Abe calls on the BTN, along with Eric and one other player. Flop is Ac9c8s, checks to me, I check, and Abe immediately declares all-in for $280 (into a pot of $140). Both fold to me and I'm pretty sure I'm going to fold. I think there's a reasonable chance he has an ace, as well as a reasonable chance he is on JT. He tells me unsolicited "Whatever you want to do, run it once, run it twice...." I debate a little further, thinking more and more that he is drawing, but decide there are better spots to get it in, and fold. He shows JT.
Hand #6: Eric is stuck about 2 buy-ins now, and raises to 15 (playing about 130 or so). He has literally been raising at least 25% of the time, so suffice it to say he doesn't have to be very strong here. After one caller, I 3 bet AcTc to 55. Eric goes all-in after a few seconds, folds to me and I call and hold up vs A9.
Hand #7: A newer player who I could characterize on the tighter side opened UTG to 12, and after 2 callers I called on the BTN with T9s. Flop is 4 ways, and comes Q86, giving me a double gutter. He led $21, which didn't strike me as particularly strong, and got a call from one player. The original raiser had about $200 going into the hand. I debated my options, and didn't feel like his lead felt very strong, so I decided to raise, with the plan of probably calling if he shoved, and shoving most turns if called. The raiser thought for a bit and then called, and the other player folded. Turn was a total blank deuce. He checked and I confidently slid out a large stack of reds. He thought for about 15 seconds and then folded, showing a Q when he did. Eric wanted me to "show the bluff", and I quickly considered it but decided not to pour salt in the wound of the guy who folded.
Things calmed down for a while, as I tightened up and the cards weren't particulary attractive for a while. Was considering racking up and leaving a $400-500 winner, but with so much money in play I decided to hang around. Then things got interesting, a player named Shaun wanted to flip Eric for his stack. Apparently as back story Shaun had been on a massive heater, and had just taken 8K from a PLO game at a bowling alley.
Eric didn't want to do it, so Shaun bought in for $200, after asking to buy more and getting rebuffed. FIrst hand he goes all-in immediately and loses to a player with QQ. Very next hand after rebuying he does the same thing and beats the same players AA with 93. Then the very next hand he beats a different players AA with 98. All of these were all-in pre. Suddenly he has about $600 in front and is still raising to $100 pre every hand. He said his goal was to ruin our game, or take Eric's stack.
Hand #8: I limp AdJd in EP after a limper, and Shaun raises to $40 from the BB. Limper folds and I call. He says "Alright, we're gonna play some poker." I respond with a question "Are we??" Flop is AQT, he checks, and I check behind. Turn is a 5, he checks again, I bet $50 and he folds.
Hand #9: Shaun had gambled his stack away again, and was back down to $200. This hand brought up an interesting ethical spot, that I am curious how others would handle. Straddled pot by Eric (not sure why anyone would straddle or raise now with Shaun driving action on literally 100% of hands). Tommy calls (young player I have played with and beaten up on several times, very fun to have in the game though, and he originally set the unofficial straddle record when he did it for $160 sometime last year), and then I limp the straddle with AA. A few seconds before that, he asks if we mind if he buys in for another $200. Nobody objects and I say ok (following my limp). Then he raises to 100 before the chips are delivered to him. I ask him "Is that playing this hand?", and he says "Yes.". Tommy calls (leaving himself 80 or so more behind. Then I shove, and both players call. Tommy had JTs, and I have no idea what Shaun had. The board paired with 9's, but nothing else of significance, and my hand was good for a pot of nearly $1K.
I don't feel like I did anything wrong here by allowing it, as he had originally asked before the hand started, but still felt a bit conflicted by it. I know all he wanted to do was gamble, and he had no ill will about the hand in any way.
After that hand, the charity had sold out, so I played a few more hands and left a 4 figure winner for the session. Good times, and a nice little boost before the MSPT which I am planning on playing in at Firekeepers.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
A great session, for more than one reason
I arrived at Northville Downs for what was likely to be a 3-4 hour session before meeting the wife and her family for dinner nearby. I got there right at noon, and had to wait for about 20 minutes for the first game to start. We started with 5 players, a then the 6th player arrived shortly thereafter. That group composed the people involved in all of my spots/hands of the session.
I feel it was the best that I played in a while. Maybe it was because my decisions weren't the most difficult, but you will see in one of the hands below I avoided getting stacked in a spot where I probably should.
The key players were as follows:
AYK: Aggro young kid, you know the type, plays there a decent amount, thinks he's the best in the room. The reality is that he could be decent, but because he thinks he's so good, he plays WAY too many hands.
Al: Pseudonym for this guy, he's basically a major fish who I love having in my game. He can really frustrate players with the hands that he makes, and the lines that he takes. But I've noticed in playing with him that he has a critical flaw, that is amazingly transparent to me yet somehow nobody else. He tends to overbet, or bet very large with a nut type hand, and tends to make small bets, and even extreme underbets when he doesn't have a strong hand.
Setting the tone:
The very first hand, AYK is on the button and straddles to 5, the blinds fold, and I raise 22 UTG/HJ to 20, as expected the button calls and we are HU to the flop. The flop comes with 3 unconnecting overcards, I believe it was Q high, and I cbet 30 and he folds.
I felt that it was important early on to establish an aggressive image, and not allow the AYK to take control of the table.
First big spot
Playing about 225 deep, I open QQ after a few limpers to 15. Al re-raises on the button to 50. He bought in for 100, and just won a fairly big hand to get his stack above mine. This guy is super loose, and very aggressive with pre-flop raises, but not particularly aggressive with 3 bets, especially larger 3 bets. I considered all of my options. Certainly shoving QQ couldn't be that bad against a fish like this. I also considered folding, as the size of his 3 bet gave me some pause. In the end I thought I could call, and gauge his post flop action to determine if I had run into AA or KK. I called, and the flop came KK5. I check, and he strongly bet 100. I thought for a bit and stared at him and he told me: "I don't have a king." As an aside, at that point a player to my left asked what the rule was on talking during the hand, knowing full well that the rule there is no talking allowed. I appreciated that the dealer said something to the effect of "There's some things I don't hear.", as I don't particularly like the rule, especially when I am getting information volunteered to me. The dealer basically told him, probably wrongly per the rules of the cardroom, to basically mind his own business when he wasn't involved in the hand.
I asked him if he would show and he said "Sure, why not?", and I mucked face up, he proceeded to show me AA, and I immediately felt even more strongly than I already had about the hand.
Ace Magnets
A bit later I raise KK after a few limpers to 15, and get 3 callers, all OOP to me. Flop comes As9s4s. Checked to me, I'm pretty sure I had the Ks, and I bet 25, first limper shoves for 39 total, rest fold. I make sure I have the Ks and call. He has AJ no spades. Board blanks out and I lose. At this point I feel pretty good about the fact that I've lost with QQ and KK, and am still only down about $25, despite not winning any showdowns.
Another one with Al
Al opens the pot first or second to act to 15, SB calls, and I elect to just call in the BB with JJ. Flop comes king high, we check to him, and he bets 15, SB folds and I call. Turn is a blank, I check, he again bets 15 (bet sizing!!!) and I call. River is a K, I check, he checks and shows TT. Maybe I should have gotten more $ on this hand, but it helped further reinforce my bet size read.
I get rolling
UTG (young kid short stack) opens to 15, Al calls, and I call with 99 in the BB. This may not be the best call, but I am not purely setmining. There are plenty of boards and actions where I am willing to continue. Fortunately I don't have to worry about that as the flop is Q95. I check, UTG shoves for 60, Al quickly calls. I then shove for about 170. Al folds JT face up. I turn my cards over and he says he is probably drawing dead. I never saw his cards as I rake a nice pot.
Bluff inducement
This hand I got creative as the hand played out. For background, I saw Al raise a smallish river bet to 50ish on a stone bluff, and get called. For this hand, I raised A6o to 12 in MP (which I hated immediately after doing it, knowing that Al was likely to call me in position). We ended up HU to the flop. Flop was QJ8. I checked and he quickly checked. I'm 100% certain he would bet here with anything that remotely connected to this board. Basically any pair, any gutshot, etc.... Turn was another Q, making board QJ8Q. I checked, he bet 15, and I thought about it and called, thinking I was good. River was an A, now I lead out 15, in hopes of inducing a raise. He doesn't disappoint, and raises to 51. I call knowing that if he does have an ace, that we are chopping the pot since there is no way he AK here. He mucks without showing, and I do the same after being pushed the pot.
Biggest hand
I open UTG to 12 with AA. I get called by Al, and another player, and then AYK 3 bets to 50 with another 200 behind. I 4 bet to 125, 2 players fold, and the AYK thinks for a while and calls. I am putting him pretty strongly on QQ or JJ here, with a very outside shot at AK. Flop comes Ax9d8d. AYK checks, and I think for a while, and decide to give him some rope here, with only a 1/2 PSB left. Based on the action, a free card can't hurt me, and may give him a chance to push me off of the KK that I am trying to rep. The turn is the Ad, giving me quads. He checks his cards, presumably to see if he has a diamond, and then shoves. Obviously I call and he shows JJ. Immediately after this, which means he is down about 2-3 buy-ins, he switches tables, presumably to find greener pastures.
The rest:
Other than that, I played pretty solidly, continuing to pick up occasional pots with Cbets. During that same time Al was on fire, picking up pots with a full range of hands. The most egregious, though it was a small pot, was when he called a flop bet on a board of Td8x4d, with 7d3x, and went runner runner to make a winning flush. He also called a flop bet with a gutterball, and then ran runner runner 2 pair to scoop another pot. About 3.5 hours into the session, I got the call to leave, and Al was racking up as well, along with another player, essentially killing the game.
The best part of it all was that I was able to make over 2 buy-ins, while at the same time Al was able to run his 100 into over 1K, thus ensuring that money makes it back into the poker community.
I feel it was the best that I played in a while. Maybe it was because my decisions weren't the most difficult, but you will see in one of the hands below I avoided getting stacked in a spot where I probably should.
The key players were as follows:
AYK: Aggro young kid, you know the type, plays there a decent amount, thinks he's the best in the room. The reality is that he could be decent, but because he thinks he's so good, he plays WAY too many hands.
Al: Pseudonym for this guy, he's basically a major fish who I love having in my game. He can really frustrate players with the hands that he makes, and the lines that he takes. But I've noticed in playing with him that he has a critical flaw, that is amazingly transparent to me yet somehow nobody else. He tends to overbet, or bet very large with a nut type hand, and tends to make small bets, and even extreme underbets when he doesn't have a strong hand.
Setting the tone:
The very first hand, AYK is on the button and straddles to 5, the blinds fold, and I raise 22 UTG/HJ to 20, as expected the button calls and we are HU to the flop. The flop comes with 3 unconnecting overcards, I believe it was Q high, and I cbet 30 and he folds.
I felt that it was important early on to establish an aggressive image, and not allow the AYK to take control of the table.
First big spot
Playing about 225 deep, I open QQ after a few limpers to 15. Al re-raises on the button to 50. He bought in for 100, and just won a fairly big hand to get his stack above mine. This guy is super loose, and very aggressive with pre-flop raises, but not particularly aggressive with 3 bets, especially larger 3 bets. I considered all of my options. Certainly shoving QQ couldn't be that bad against a fish like this. I also considered folding, as the size of his 3 bet gave me some pause. In the end I thought I could call, and gauge his post flop action to determine if I had run into AA or KK. I called, and the flop came KK5. I check, and he strongly bet 100. I thought for a bit and stared at him and he told me: "I don't have a king." As an aside, at that point a player to my left asked what the rule was on talking during the hand, knowing full well that the rule there is no talking allowed. I appreciated that the dealer said something to the effect of "There's some things I don't hear.", as I don't particularly like the rule, especially when I am getting information volunteered to me. The dealer basically told him, probably wrongly per the rules of the cardroom, to basically mind his own business when he wasn't involved in the hand.
I asked him if he would show and he said "Sure, why not?", and I mucked face up, he proceeded to show me AA, and I immediately felt even more strongly than I already had about the hand.
Ace Magnets
A bit later I raise KK after a few limpers to 15, and get 3 callers, all OOP to me. Flop comes As9s4s. Checked to me, I'm pretty sure I had the Ks, and I bet 25, first limper shoves for 39 total, rest fold. I make sure I have the Ks and call. He has AJ no spades. Board blanks out and I lose. At this point I feel pretty good about the fact that I've lost with QQ and KK, and am still only down about $25, despite not winning any showdowns.
Another one with Al
Al opens the pot first or second to act to 15, SB calls, and I elect to just call in the BB with JJ. Flop comes king high, we check to him, and he bets 15, SB folds and I call. Turn is a blank, I check, he again bets 15 (bet sizing!!!) and I call. River is a K, I check, he checks and shows TT. Maybe I should have gotten more $ on this hand, but it helped further reinforce my bet size read.
I get rolling
UTG (young kid short stack) opens to 15, Al calls, and I call with 99 in the BB. This may not be the best call, but I am not purely setmining. There are plenty of boards and actions where I am willing to continue. Fortunately I don't have to worry about that as the flop is Q95. I check, UTG shoves for 60, Al quickly calls. I then shove for about 170. Al folds JT face up. I turn my cards over and he says he is probably drawing dead. I never saw his cards as I rake a nice pot.
Bluff inducement
This hand I got creative as the hand played out. For background, I saw Al raise a smallish river bet to 50ish on a stone bluff, and get called. For this hand, I raised A6o to 12 in MP (which I hated immediately after doing it, knowing that Al was likely to call me in position). We ended up HU to the flop. Flop was QJ8. I checked and he quickly checked. I'm 100% certain he would bet here with anything that remotely connected to this board. Basically any pair, any gutshot, etc.... Turn was another Q, making board QJ8Q. I checked, he bet 15, and I thought about it and called, thinking I was good. River was an A, now I lead out 15, in hopes of inducing a raise. He doesn't disappoint, and raises to 51. I call knowing that if he does have an ace, that we are chopping the pot since there is no way he AK here. He mucks without showing, and I do the same after being pushed the pot.
Biggest hand
I open UTG to 12 with AA. I get called by Al, and another player, and then AYK 3 bets to 50 with another 200 behind. I 4 bet to 125, 2 players fold, and the AYK thinks for a while and calls. I am putting him pretty strongly on QQ or JJ here, with a very outside shot at AK. Flop comes Ax9d8d. AYK checks, and I think for a while, and decide to give him some rope here, with only a 1/2 PSB left. Based on the action, a free card can't hurt me, and may give him a chance to push me off of the KK that I am trying to rep. The turn is the Ad, giving me quads. He checks his cards, presumably to see if he has a diamond, and then shoves. Obviously I call and he shows JJ. Immediately after this, which means he is down about 2-3 buy-ins, he switches tables, presumably to find greener pastures.
The rest:
Other than that, I played pretty solidly, continuing to pick up occasional pots with Cbets. During that same time Al was on fire, picking up pots with a full range of hands. The most egregious, though it was a small pot, was when he called a flop bet on a board of Td8x4d, with 7d3x, and went runner runner to make a winning flush. He also called a flop bet with a gutterball, and then ran runner runner 2 pair to scoop another pot. About 3.5 hours into the session, I got the call to leave, and Al was racking up as well, along with another player, essentially killing the game.
The best part of it all was that I was able to make over 2 buy-ins, while at the same time Al was able to run his 100 into over 1K, thus ensuring that money makes it back into the poker community.
Thursday, January 03, 2013
2012 Poker Year in Review
As we near the end of 2012, I thought it was a good time to
take stock of my poker play, look for trends, and develop some goals for next
year. As an aside, almost all of the calculations in here are automated, with very little setup required. If anyone would like a template of my record keeping spreadsheet, I will be happy to provide, just drop your e-mail in the comments.
2012 began much like 2011 with a downswing. This one was a quick 1K downswing while out
in Vegas for a work convention. I
played 3 sessions of 2/5, losing about 1100.
Most of that trip report can be read about here and here. I undid the damage in February, and got
things into the black for good for the year in April. May and June were my best months of the year,
and after a loss in July, my play significantly dipped due to Marissa being
born, as I have 9 sessions totaling 42 hours since. Here are the graphs of my profit vs hours,
and profit vs date.
Also, below you can see the graph of hours played by month.
I've found when I analyze my play, it helps to parse my
results by a lot of different categories.
Different limits:
The first thing to look at is my results at different
limits. For the year I played mostly
1/2, and a smattering of 1/3 and 2/5.
Below are the results.
1/2: $25/hr (down from $30/hr in 2011 in a similar # of
hours)
1/3: Not even worth
looking at as I only have 17 hours in 2 years
2/5: -$212/hr (in 11
hours of play - down from $32/hr in 2011 in 20 hours)
Obviously the 2/5 results are horrible, though the sample size
is laughably small. Looking back at the
results, in session #1 I ran QQ into KK in a big pot at the Venetian in a
marginal spot, where I believe I probably could have folded to the 3 bet. It could be considered a minor cooler. My 2nd and 3rd session was also at the
Venetian where I dropped close to a buy-in, and my only real notes say that I
played weak tight.
I played again at 2/5 at Motor City where I ran something
awful, losing 2 buy-ins. That session is chronicled here. The 1st hand of
significance involved me getting it in with top two pair on a JT5 board, only
to run into a set of 5's. The 2nd had of
significance involved me getting it in with AK v a short stacks AQ, and a
frustrated player's larger stack of JT, and I managed to lose both the main pot
and the side pot.
I didn't play 2/5 again until the Michigan Poker Monster March Madness party, where I started out hot, but ended up
dropping a little over $100, mostly due to losing a big pot where I got all-in
on the flop against an open ended straight draw where I held top set and lost
on the river.
After that session, I just never really got a chance to play
2/5 again, only going downtown twice since March, and both times sitting at
1/2.
While the overall results are horrible, I think that these
results were mostly just the bad side of variance. Could I have played better in a few
spots? Maybe, but I think there was no
way I was going to come close to breaking even with the luck that I had
there.
Conclusions?
Obviously I can kill 1/2, and I believe I can beat 2/5 pretty badly as
well, but I haven't given myself enough of a shot to do it.
Different rooms:
My play has been primarily spent at Northville Downs, with
the rest of the hours being in a smattering of other rooms.
Northville Downs (48.6% of my play): $31/hr (up from $28/hr
in 2011, in a similar # of hours)
Docs (20.4% of my play):
$34/hr (down from $58/hr in 2011, in a similar # of hours)
Motor City (7.5% of my play): -$85/hr (down from $92/hr in 2011, the
aforementioned 2/5 results badly skew this one)
The rest of the rooms each represent less than 5% of my play
for the year, and I got time in 12 different rooms this year (last year I
played in 13 different rooms).
Obviously I need to play more at Docs as I am just killing
the players there. The problem is that
the player base is smaller, and you tend to have to wait longer than I would
like when I go there. The plus side of
the room is the beer selection, free food that they routinely put out,
attractive servers, and of course a high win rate.
Session length:
This one tends to be mis-leading, as the longer sessions are
usually when I have fallen behind and am trying to make a comeback, hence the
lower win rate, but since my data can be parsed that way, here it is. But I am happy to say that these results for
this year are much more consistent and flat, which leads me to believe I chased
a lot less this year. This is regardless
of limit, game, etc...
Less than 2 hours (24.6% of sessions): $26/hr
2-4 hrs (37.7%):
$11/hr
4-6 hours (24.6%):
$13/hr
6-8 hours (8.2%):
$28/hr
8+ hours (6.6%):
$11/hr
Day of the week:
I have been charting this for a while, and the results for
2012 aren't really meaningful as the sample size is too small. My lifetime records though indicate my most
profitable days of the week as Thursday, then Sunday, then Monday, then
Wednesday. It's interesting to note that
on Friday and Saturday, which one would think would be a players best days due
to the increased recreational element, that I am barely better than break
even. I don't really have any
conclusions from this, but find it interesting.
2013 Goals:
I believe I created one of these in draft form a year or two
ago, but never sent it out. Here's a few
loose goals. None of them are going to
be associated with a win rate. I believe
I am a winning player, and if I put in the hours and play my game, while being
smart and disciplined, the win rate will take care of itself.
Half of the goals will be evaluated subjectively, but unfortunately that is the nature of the beast when dealing with some of the goals that I put together.
Half of the goals will be evaluated subjectively, but unfortunately that is the nature of the beast when dealing with some of the goals that I put together.
Goal #1: Play 200
hours in 2013.: I need to average 17
hours per month, which is hopefully doable, as the baby gets older. The winter should allow me to get a head
start as I don't have any responsibilities such as softball or coaching Abby's
teams taking up my time, and I also don't have golf competing for my free time
for the first few months of the year.
Goal #2: Play 40
hours of 2/5 or higher in 2013. This
should be a doable, as long as I am smart about bankroll, don't run awful, and
make sure to visit rooms that have this limit available.
Goal #3: Continue to find profitable spots to 3 bet. I wrote an article on it in 2+2 magazine, which was generally well received. Players tend to hate it, and don't properly combat it, and just generally allow themselves to be walked all over.
Goal #4: Continue to
find ways to exploit my position. This
is kind of related to #3, in that I want to generally 3 bet in position. But I believe my goal should be to make the
player or 2 directly to my right very uncomfortable. If I am not doing that, I am not doing my job
well enough.
Goal #5: Once I get
a big stack, aggressively target other big stacks. This is one where I feel I could definitely
improve. I try to be keenly aware of all
stack sizes at the table, and am especially aware of my potential exposure
every time I play a hand. What I need to
do though is to exploit players who are also aware of their exposure,
especially ones who are fearful of playing deep.
Goal #6: I had one article published in 2012 (Low Stakes Live Light 3 Betting) which was published by 2+2 internet magazine, and that I was compensated for. The article remains on the site for 6 months, and is no longer available there. I'm going to start small this year and set a modest goal of 2 articles for 2013.
Goal #6: I had one article published in 2012 (Low Stakes Live Light 3 Betting) which was published by 2+2 internet magazine, and that I was compensated for. The article remains on the site for 6 months, and is no longer available there. I'm going to start small this year and set a modest goal of 2 articles for 2013.
Hopefully in 12 months time I will be able to re-examine
this post to see how I did about attaining my goals.
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