My prediction is at the bottom of this lengthy post. I may update this as I think about the race a little further.
1. Black Onyx - Disastrous draw for him. His running style seems to be the worst for this spot possible, as he tends to stalk close to the lead (within 5 lengths of the lead at every call in his career). It will be very difficult to get good position without either using a lot of his horse early, or laying way back and coming with one big run. Add to that his best two races have been on turf and poly, means you are asking him to do an awful lot.
Verdict - I can play him for 4th, and maybe 3rd since I think he will be coming late, but I think any better is asking for the world.
2. Oxbow - Another who did not get the best draw. Off of a bit of a bad trip in his last race, and if you excuse the last race he would be a bit more highly regarded. Ridden by Gary Stevens, and out of Awesome Again, meaning the distance should not be a problem. The bad news is that in his last 3 races he has been beaten by 4 of these, and they are not the most highly regarded of the bunch.
Verdict - I have a feeling I'm going to want him on my tickets. The jockey/trainer combo, combined with the pedigree and the long odds make him one of the more attractive if not the most attractive bomb in the field. Not enough for the win, but maybe as high as 2nd.
3. Revolutionary - Off of 3 straight wins, and out of the red hot barn of Pletcher. It was nice to see him race and win outside of New York too at the Fairgrounds. The bad news is that he was life and death to beat Mylute, a horse who I don't think wants any part of more distance. He does have a 102 BSF in his maiden win at Aqueduct, but it was on an off track, which is something I am always skeptical of. Take that race out of his record, and his highest BSF is 93, which puts him outside of the top players. I like the War Pass connections, and Borel in the Derby can never be a bad thing. He seems to be training awesome at Churchill, and with Churchill being a bit of a unique surface in horses taking to it, you can't ignore it.
Verdict - I like him as one of my key horses, though I think he is a cut below the top tier. It would be a terrible idea to ignore him based on the awesome training tab leading up to the race, and the Borel/Churchill factor. That being said, he is likely to be a bit overbet due to Calvin.
4. Golden Soul - Another who could crash the party coming late, and make tickets pay a ton. He closed well in the La Derby, but was no match for the winner. Good result in past race at Churchill, and Albarado knows Churchill.
Verdict - On my tickets for 4th for sure, and maybe as high as 3rd.
5. Normandy Invasion - By Tapit, who is a great sire, but he's never been known to sire horses for much more distance than a miler. Did finish less than a length off Verrazano, but you have to wonder how wound up they had Verrazano for that race, since they didn't need it to make the field. His best races have been at Aqueduct, which is a track I am always a little skeptical of, as it seems to be one of those "horse for the course" type of places. He seems to be training very well leading up to this.
Verdict - I think I can play him for as high as the win in some tickets, but I'm just not sure the mile and a quarter is right for him. I feel like he is going to be overbet. I do have a small future wager on him at 17-1, but that would not even come close to covering my Derby bets.
6. Mylute - Looked like he had every chance to beat Revolutionary, yet couldn't get past him in the Louisiana Derby. It won't get any easier with added distance and a much tougher field. He closed well in the Louisiana Derby, which was a new dimension for him, but that may have been more due to the swift early pace, rather than discovering a new running style. Top speed figure of 93, combined with distance limitations being out of Midnight Lute don't give me a feeling he is ready to take a step forward with the added distance.
Verdict: I'm not particularly fond of him, but may have to use him since he will be one of the few who are running late.
7. Giant Finish - Best race thus far has been on Poly, and he couldn't beat Black Onyx while being in the front end of a slow pace. There are better horses who will be near the front end than this one. In my book he is a toss.
Verdict: Toss him
8. Goldencents - Needed a big Santa Anita Derby to get in, and responded with a lifetime best performance, and perhaps most importantly a 105 beyer. The SA Derby was a path to win the Derby last year, validating it as a prep race again now that it is on dirt. Rookie jockey, coupled with a horse that has had trouble relaxing in some of his races can be a somewhat scary combination (though the rookie jock had no problem last year). I also question his ability at the distance, being out of Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday. We saw with Shenghai Bobby just how much distance he wanted.
Verdict - The good news is I have a future bet on him at 49-1, the bad news is that I don't think it cashes. I think he's going to be very close to the lead, and unless allowed to go very slowly and freely on that lead, I think he's a player until the far turn, when he will get swallowed up by the closers. My initial inclination is to leave him off the tickets entirely, as reckless as that may seem.
May 2nd update: Upon further review though, that does seem totally reckless to ignore him. He has a tie for the highest last race Beyer, has the highest last race Beyer in the field (an angle that has produced a few surprising longshot winners in Charismatic and War Emblem), and will be forwardly placed in a race without a lot of pace. I still think he will be too aggressive early and not be able to hold for the distance, but ignoring him could be a fatal flaw.
9. Overanalyze - From the Pletcher barn, which means you have to respect him. His Arkansas Derby win was visually impressive, but yielded a very low Beyer of 88. On the down side, a turd like Frac Daddy finished 2nd, which immediately calls into question the quality of the race. Out of Dixie Union, which I believe is the same sire as Union Rags, and those horses are always very well regarded. He showed big time ability in the Remsen Stakes as a 2 year old last year, throwing a 99 beyer. He hasn't broke 90 in either of his races this year yet, but the way he has been training leading up to this has been solid. He is very gutty as well, as it appeared that he would be beaten in the Remsen, after Normandy Invasion passed him, and he came again.
Verdict - I have a nice future bet on him also at 49-1. He is one that I am unsure what I am going to do with right now.
10. Palace Malice - By Curlin, it's a bit early to decide how good he is as a sire. He hasn't won since breaking his maiden at Saratoga in August, and his highest Beyer figure is a 94, with that number trending in the wrong direction as the distance increases. Without a significant improvement he is a cut below the best in this field, and he has been training OK leading up to this race, which just isn't good enough in my book.
Verdict - I think I will use him 4th if at all.
11. Lines of Battle - Until Aiden O'Brien proves to me he can travel here for the Derby and compete, he should continually be bet against. Same goes for horses traveling the Dubai route. But the simple truth is that the outsiders that I have been listing outside of the top contenders are so unappealing to me I have to search for a few who may be able to make some noise. He's out of War Front, which is respectable for getting the distance. He just won the UAE derby in decent fashion, however that field was thought to be somewhat weak. The fact that he has never raced on a dirt is scary enough, and it would make me feel a lot better if he were at Churchill training and growing accustomed to the track (ala Animal Kingdom), but I don't believe that has happened either.
Verdict: Unless I see a phenomenal love the track workout, I'm going to have to pass on him.
12. Itsmyluckyday - He nearly has the highest Beyer in the field, but is he just a horse for Gulfstream? He was looking like a potential Derby favorite, until Orb ran by him like he was tied to a post in the Florida Derby. He was still able to hang on for 2nd in that race. Reports have him training well leading up to the race. Sired by Lawyer Ron, who I don't believe is the most suited to mile and a quarter distance.
Verdict - He will be forwardly placed, and potentially in an ideal position on the far turn, and I wouldn't be surprised if he would make the lead on the turn or at the top of the stretch. I think it would be unwise to ignore him, especially because he may be one of the forgotten horses here, and go off at decent odds.
13. Falling Sky - May be the pace setter, or at least will be pressing the pace. Top beyer of a 92 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, nor does being sired by Lion Heart, who actually had the lead in the stretch of the 2004 Derby, but that was a day when early speed dominated, and the track was sloppy following a monsoon. It would take a similar result to let him hit the board in my opinion.
Verdict - Toss him
14. Verrazano - Looks to be the obvious Derby favorite, and deserving at that. Done nothing wrong so far, winning all of his starts, with 2 speed figures over 100 or better, including a 105, which is likely required to win this. Pletcher is hot as hell with his 3 year olds as well. His 4 wins are at 3 different tracks.
There is no bad with him right now, just questions. His sire, More Than Ready, was 4th in the 2000 Kentucky Derby, and sure didn't seem like he wanted that last furlong. I also can't recall any of his progeny being championship caliber horses at the classic distance. He has been very forwardly placed in all of his races thus far. Typically in the Derby you want to be sitting a little further back due what is usually a hot pace. Can he relax enough to get a good trip?
Verdict - He looks to be a dominant player, and he should be ignored at your own risk.
15. Charming Kitten - He's a Kitten's Joy horse who just threw his career high Beyer on polytrack....hmmm....and now he's coming to the Derby. We already went through this with Dean's Kitten a few years ago, and he ran 14th more highly regarded than this one. That career high Beyer, again on Polytrack, was only an 88. So you have to find reason to think he is going to improve double digit points on a surface that Kitten's Joy progeny have proven to not have an affinity for, to believe he can hit the board. And he also has to do it on a surface that he has never run on before, as well as only having a 3rd in 2 starts on the Poly. He does have Pletcher, but he's probably fairly busy with his top contenders.
Verdict - Toss him
16. Orb - Unbeaten in his last 4 starts. Speed figures are a little bit light, with a high of 97, however perhaps more impressively, he closed 3 times at Gulfstream, most of which is on the outside, which is atypical of that track, where a traditional inside speed bias exists. Sired by Malibu Moon, with AP Indy in his bloodline, the distance shouldn't be a problem. He also is not a typical 1 run deep closer, as he has been within 5 lengths of the front at all calls of both the Florida Derby and his claiming win in January.
On 4/29 he had what many consider to be the most impressive work of anyone in the field, and he has Rosario on the mount, who is winning everything in sight, and riding with extreme confidence right now.
Verdict - He feels like a key horse to me if there ever was one.
17. Will Take Charge - He kinda came out of nowhere to win the Rebel at 28-1, following an awful performance in the Southwest Stakes. That win was at Oaklawn, which is a track that tends to portend future Churchill success, but then again so was the Southwest. He raced at Churchill last year, finishing last in a Grade 2 race out of 13 horses. Looking at that field now and their poor recent results, it has to lead you to believe that race was a fluke. With a top speed figure of 95, in a race that I already believe was a fluke, leads me to believe that this horse is a throwaway to the tickets. As for the pedigree, Unbridled was a Derby winner, but his son, Unbridled's Song was more of a miler (led the Derby top of stretch before fading to 5th in 1996).
Verdict - Toss him
18. Frac Daddy - I'm not a big fan of Scat Daddy horses in general, and this one has been a turd this year, having to gut out a 2nd place on less than 2 weeks rest in a weak Arkansas Derby to make this field. What gives on a bit of pause though is that his 2 best races last year both occurred at Churchill Downs. The question you have to answer for yourself is "Is he a better horse at Churchill, or was he a better horse last year?" Nothing he has done this year says he can even hit the board, with an 81 beyer for a high!!! He did throw a 91 at Churchill last year, so it at least makes me consider him.
Verdict - He should be an easy toss based on current form, but the Churchill results will at least make me consider playing him in 3rd place, but probably not at all above that.
19. Java's War - I was very impressed visually with his Blue Grass, though the speed figure was only 89. His inability to break cleanly in any of his starts is very worrisome. With this year's pace scenario more likely to be tepid than hot, getting a clean break is even more paramount. Having Leparoux in a big race in a Derby field, I would expect a less than clean trip, and probably a belated effort late on the outside. Good post position draw though for him, actually helps Leparoux as being on the outside should help him stay out of trouble.
Verdict - The pace scenario is likely to not be in his favor, his speed figures show him to be outside of the top contenders, and his inability to break clean are huge negatives, along with a jockey who until proven that he can navigate a good Derby trip has to be doubted are all very negative factors. I think I can play him to be picking up pieces late in 4th place, and potentially as high as 3rd.
20. Vyjack - Has done little wrong in his career, winning his first 4 races, and then finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial, losing to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. On the bad side, his top beyer is a 96, and his top Beyer at a distance of a mile or more is 93, which is a trend in the wrong direction. My thinking is that he is a horse that absolutely does not want any added ground, and while seeming to be game, will more likely be getting passed rather than passing horses.
Preliminary verdict - There are too many I like better with a similar running style, and there are some that I think that will be coming late that will make me pass on playing this one. You have to take a stand somewhere.
Prediction: I drilled it big time in 2011 calling the exacta in Animal Kingdom and Nehro, hitting the tri, and being a part of a super, all in all killing it that year. Last year, not so much, but I thought last year was an insanely difficult race. This year I think the favorites are just a lot better than the also rans. Note that if the race is on a muddy/off track, I will stick with this, but have a lot less faith in my selections since I suck in wet Churchill conditions.
Predicted order finish:
1st - Orb
2nd - Revolutionary
3rd - Verrazano
4th - Java's War
5th - Itsmyluckyday
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts
Thursday, May 02, 2013
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Kentucky Derby 2012 trip report
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Thursday saw us leave Michigan around 4pm. Al by himself in one car, Erik, Dave and Doug
in Erik's car, and myself and Jim in my car.
We stopped for a bite at Arby's somewhere in Ohio, picked up Mert in
Cincy, and made it to Louisville around 11pm.
After checking into the hotel, this time the Comfort Suites in
Louisville on Paramount Parkway - which we got for a song at a rate of $109 per
night, they were going for $429 per night online a few days before the trip -
we made our way out for what is now the annual trip to Trixies.
After we got there (minus Al, who apparently fell asleep in
his room and missed the festivities), we immediately started on the beer, as
well as shooting pool. The vibe was
pretty dead when we got there, and the "dancers" were about the
same. A few girls were trying to get our
attention, but they were nasty, and we were more interested in our own thing
than what little they had to offer. At
this point Erik discovered the punching bag machine, where your punch strength
is measured. Here is some video of Erik
running across the bar to get a head of steam before punching it. Here is a link in case the embedded video below doesn't work.
Also here is Jim punching said machine. Here is a link in case the embedded video below doesn't work.
Our group must have put $100+ into that machine at $1 a pop
throughout the night, betting more and more money as the night went on. Finally near the end I decided to give it a
go. I figured I would be one of the
weakest ones, but once I saw Dave's piss poor effort, I figured there was no
way I could do worse. It turned out that
I had the second highest score of the night, which was much to the chagrin of
people who were betting against me. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to make much on
myself for whatever reason. Theories
were abound as to how I was able to get the 2nd highest number, with Dan's
theory being that since I am an Engineer, I was able to somehow determine the
optimum angle of attack / trajectory. My
theory is that most of the guys are bigger pussies than they think, while I am
less of a pussy than they think.
We ended up staying until 3am, which as usual makes Oaks day
difficult to handle.
Friday, May 4, 2012 - Oaks Day
We grabbed the usual parking spots at Charlie and Phil's,
had some beers for the road, and made our way to Churchill. The day started off slowly, with a few marginal hits. Sonny hit a few signers, but he was putting a
lot into the races to hit them, so while building a profit, it wasn't as big as
it would have seemed. In the 6th race, 2011 Kentucky Oaks runner
Plum Pretty looked very good on paper, but my friend Erin had a theory that she
was tired, and was vulnerable. I have no
recollection about how I profited from that race, but I am fairly sure I did,
as she ran 3rd behind Juanita and St Johns River.
Then in the 7th race I got something going with a superfecta
that I shared with the Dave and Erik. I
didn't think we had it at first, I think I wheeled on the 21-1 longshot in 1st
and 2nd, and she ran 3rd, but then I realized I did have her for 3rd on one
ticket, and the longest shot on the board ran 4th. I had also started a pick 5 ticket with both
Dave and Erik on this race, where most of the money was focused on the winner
of the 7th race, and singling on Stephanies Kitten in the 8th, who I felt was a
standout in that field. Unfortunately,
because I had opened a pick 5 already, I chose not to open any pick 4 tickets,
since the combinations were duplicated.
The 8th race went as expected with Stephanies Kitten winning by a
comfortable 2 lengths. The 9th race was
a good result, as the 3rd choice, Successful Dan won, which helps the pk5
payout as well. The 10th race was a
difficult race, and my two key horses were the 13 and 14. Because of my pick 5, I chose not to put
money into the race, and was slightly upset to see the race come in 13-10-14,
and pay $14K on the superfecta, and $1300 on the trifecta. But, we were through with the 3rd choice
again in the pick 5. There was also a
long weather delay before the 10th race, where they actually evacuated the
infield and grandstand, so part of the reason I didn't bet the race was because
of uncertainty with (A) whether the race would stay on the turf, and (B) how
the track would be playing following the rain.
The Oaks was closing out the pick 5, and we thought the race
was very wide open. We had 6 possible
horses to win, with some really good payoffs on the longshots. Our hopes were rewarded when Rosie Napravnik
brought in Believe You Can at 14-1 to win the Oaks, getting us one of our best
results, a payout of $1595 for the .50 cent pick 5. It was the first pick 5 that I had ever
hit. As I mentioned before, the pick 4
which I had neglected to play and was easy to hit based on my handicapping, as
I got it AABA, paid $750 on a .50 cent bet.
By the conclusion of Oaks Day, most people were doing well,
with Sonny up over 1K, myself up about 200.
Al was up, and Dave and Erik weren't doing badly either. The only person not doing so well was Doug,
who was the victim of losing some large win bets on prohibitive favorites.
After the Oaks, we went to the Mexican restaurant next to
the hotel. Seeing that the following day
was Cinco de Mayo, it not only seemed appropriate, it seemed prudent since the
following day would likely be very crowded.
I could barely touch my burrito due to the copious amounts of chips and
salsa I consumed prior the burrito delivery.
Sonny ordered the "Burrito gigante", which lived up to its
name. We played credit card roulette for
the bill, which Doug lost. Fortunately
for Doug, he and Jim bought insurance for each other, so they split the
bill.
After the Mexican food, a few of us went out to the
Godfather, a place we have been a time or two.
It was me, Jim, Doug, Sonny and Erin who were the troopers. Not much to add here, as we just had some
beers and shot the shit.
Saturday, May 5, 2012 - Derby day
Derby day started out well.
We got to our normal parking place, and Al actually paid for a guy to
"shuttle" us to the entrance in a golf cart. This would save from the inevitable
"chaf-age" from walking far in the heat. Unfortunately, the golf cart couldn't go all
the way to the main entrance due to the way pedestrian/vehicle traffic was
routed, so it didn't end up saving us much time or effort.
When we got to the track, I kept my betting fairly small for
the most part. Part of the problem was
that the races were difficult, part of it was that I wasn't feeling well, and
part of it was that I was showing a little bit of discipline, since my horse
betting has been pretty bad since last years Derby. So I apologize to anyone who was counting on
any of my handicapping and/or help on the days races. The sad truth is that I likely wouldn't have
been a lot of help.
It appeared to be a sound decision on my part, as nobody in
our group seemed to be doing anything very well, save for Jim, who continued to
be mysterious with his betting for the entire weekend. (He did buy picks from some online
source....I doubt they did very well).
For the weekend then I have absolutely no clue how well he did,
somewhere between winning a grand and losing 2 grand I would say (I told you he
was being mysterious).
It also didn't seem to be a very prudent idea to put much
money into races I had handicapped for 10-20 minutes, in comparison to the
Derby which I had spent 10-20 hours handicapping and thinking about. So I was essentially saving myself for the
Derby.
As expected, we had no shortage of money to put into the
Derby superfecta. Previous years we have
put in 1440, 1500ish, 2000ish, and 2400.
This year our team put together 4K to put into the race, and that was
with Sonny putting in far less than he had invested in previous years, leaving
him only 25% of our tickets. Knowing it
was a tough race, I knew we needed all of the money we could put together.
Everyone in our team agreed to key Gemologist, which
apparently turned out to be very wrong.
But we had difficulty identifying a 2nd horse to key. I liked Bodemeister a lot, but it didn't make
a lot of sense to key on 2 horses who were likely to be near the front of what
we expected to be quick early fractions.
After much debate and discussion, we settled on Union Rags, despite the
linked article where I basically shit on his chances. The reason being that even though he wasn't
likely good enough to win, he appeared to run a decent race every time, and
that race gave him a decent shot at hitting the board. Plus, he was likely to be off of the hot
pace. Here's how we shaped our tickets, and how the investors shook out.
As we tend to say in horse racing, you can't play em' all,
and I'll Have Another was one of the last horses we eliminated from the win
portion of the ticket, and I even went as far as to recommend throwing him
completely off of the ticket. My
reasoning made sense, in that from the 19 hole I expected him to be very forwardly
placed, as that was the running style he had shown in all of his previous
races. Consequently, I expected him to
be hung 4-5 wide on the first turn, while tracking a very hot pace. His jockey, being in his first Kentucky Derby
and relatively inexperienced, would not be capable of calming himself down, or
his horse, and would burn his energy out very early. Essentially I'll Have Another got the trip that I was thinking/hoping that Gemologist would get.
What happened in reality was that I'll Have Another was able
to get him into a great position entering the first turn about two spots out
from the rail, and in an area where he was almost all by himself, with no
traffic around him. This was the key to
the victory in my opinion. In almost
every Derby, the winner finds himself in a great spot on the first turn, and
encounters very little traffic the whole way.
Mike Smith on the other hand, I'm not sure what he was doing
all Derby day....first he moves WAY too soon on Amazombie, basically heading
Shackleford on the turn. Shackleford is
as game as they come, and you don't want to run neck and neck with him for over
1/4 of a mile, especially when the distance is more of a question for your
horse than his. Then in the Derby, he
immediately seizes the lead from the start on Bodemeister, which apparently was
the plan of Bob Baffert all along. This
part I have no problem with, but the part I do have a problem with is them
blaming Trinniberg for the hot pace.
Trinniberg was up close, but it didn't appear to me that he at any time
tried to get the lead from Bodemeister.
Smith just didn't harness enough of his speed to last, and consequently
ran through lightening fast fractions, and ran a HUGE race to nearly hold
on.
So as I said before, I take the blame for leaving the winner
off of our tickets, but since our key horses both missed the board, it wasn't
to be. I will take the credit for
predicting Rags poor run and bad trip in my previous write-up. It appears Julien Leparoux will lose the
mount on him, after failing to follow instructions, and even going as far as
suggesting that he heard a pop on Rags on the turn, yet still riding him to a
closing 7th place finish. What's the
deal Julien? If he was hurt, why
continue riding him? Just admit that you
gave him yet another bad ride, and that you are afraid of sticking a horse in a
tight spot Calvin Borel style.
As an aside, I read an article on the Derby the other day
that bears mentioning. The article
basically suggested that unless you have top end speed (like Bodemeister), the
outside/auxiliary gate is where you not only want to be, but NEED to be. This means posts 15-20. The likelihood of you getting a cleaner trip
far outweigh any ground you are going to lose.
This is a point that I definitely already knew, however the top end speed
thing is something I hadn't thought of but makes sense. I will not let drawing an outside post
position affect me one iota, unless they are a horse I expect on the lead.
Basically the entire group got whitewashed on the Derby, save
for Erin hitting a small win bet on the winner.
I hit a win bet in one of the last 2 races, but basically ended up down
about a grand on Derby day, with basically all of it coming on the Derby
itself.
Following the Derby, we decided to hit the Chinese
buffet. I suggested this was a bad
intestinal idea (as Dan will affirm to, since he spent 30+ minutes in the
community bathroom in the hotel). What
was another bad idea was the credit card roulette, which saw me losing and
footing the $150 bill. I have probably
lost 3 of my last 6 times at CCR, and decided that credit card will be retired
from the battle, and I proceeded to use another on at breakfast the next
morning.
After dinner, a few of us (Me, Dave, Erik, Jim, Sonny and
Doug) went back to Trixies. We managed
to get Jim and Dave a nice motorboat,
and Sonny broke our groups record at the punching bag machine. I neglected to try, as I didn't think I could
beat Sonny's mark, and also didn't want to hurt my hand anymore than it already
did (from an errant shot two nights before).
The aftermath
Overall a very fun trip, despite ending in financial
disappointment for all. Hopefully I'm
able to apply some of the lessons learned from this year's Derby into next
years Derby.
My next effort at credit card roulette, using a different credit card at the Waffle House nearby the hotel, was successful, as Erik was the victim.
Lessons learned
As I mentioned before. We've seen it countless times. The auxiliary gate is the place to be. It's not good, but the inside is "less good".
For god's sake, when there is a horse with standout speed figures, ala Bodemeister, make that horse one of your key horses.
Just because you have Pick 5 tickets live, doesn't mean you can't play Pick 4, especially when you have a few strong opinions upcoming. That decision likely cost me at least $750.
Thursday, May 03, 2012
Final 2012 Kentucky Derby preview
Here is the final Kentucky Derby field, with my prediction at the end of this. Recall that last year I pegged the exacta in reverse order, and on track hit the trifecta and superfecta (as a team on the last bet).
1 - Daddy Long Legs - I didn't want to use him before, and him drawing the rail assures it. Until proven otherwise, Aidan O'Brien does not know how to win the Kentucky Derby.
2 - Optimizer - Basically an outsider in this group. I can play him for 4th....maybe.....and even then I don't feel very good about it.
3 - Take Charge Indy -Definitely a tough one to figure. Borel will get the rail as long as he wants it.
4 - Union Rags - Everybody in my Derby group is falling into the same trap, expecting him to take a step forward despite no evidence that he can, and paying a terrible price to boot. Does he have the talent? I don't know, but you are paying 9-2, near favoritism for the POSSIBILITY.
5 - Dullahan - He probably would have rather drawn a bit further outside, but I don't think it's a big deal. I'm inclined to say he's much more likely in 5th-8th place, than 1st-4th.
6 - Bodemeister - I think it's a very good draw. The question is can Smith get him to settle at the right pace to be able to carry his speed. It may all depend on how fast Trinniberg goes.
7 - Rousing Sermon - Outsider closer that may have a chance for 4th.
8 - Creative Cause - Most of my group is souring on him. I'm not sure that I have yet. Yes, he has hung a bit in the stretch, but he beat Bodemeister once.
9 - Trinniberg - He's a speedster, and I think he will lead for about 7/8 of a mile, and then fade. I'll be wheeling him in 19th and 20th place on all tickets.
10 - Daddy Nose Best - My daughters pick, but I think she is biased. I think he would need a perfect setup and trip to win, don't think he will get it.
11 - Alpha - Everything seems to be shaping up well for him. Good draw, training up well, added distance. Big threat.
12 - Prospective - Hard to see better than 4th for this outsider.
13 - Went The Day Well - I think he will be overrated based on the Animal Kingdom comparisons, but the simple fact is that despite his running style, he is not well suited for this distance. I'm inclined to toss him.
14 - Hansen - Is game, but I just don't think he will want the distance. 3rd at best, but I think he fades to 7th or 8th.
15 - Gemologist - He drew perfectly, and is a huge threat to win.
16 - El Padrino - Not a bad draw for him either. An outside threat at the win.
17 - Done Talking - The less time I talk about him, the better off I am.
18 - Sabercat - Another outsider that could maybe crash the party if the pace collapses. Thinking no though.
19 - I'll Have Another - I don't think he is as good as some of the others here, so I am inclined to pass.
20 - Liaison - He has Baffert and bad form. I pass.
21AE - My Adonis - Maybe he could crash the party also if the pace totally collapses, and that's even if he gets in the field. I will pass.
Now, the big moment....the prediction....in what is maybe the most difficult Kentucky Derby I have ever handicapped.
1st - Alpha
2nd - Bodemeister
3rd - Gemologist
4th - Take Charge Indy
1 - Daddy Long Legs - I didn't want to use him before, and him drawing the rail assures it. Until proven otherwise, Aidan O'Brien does not know how to win the Kentucky Derby.
2 - Optimizer - Basically an outsider in this group. I can play him for 4th....maybe.....and even then I don't feel very good about it.
3 - Take Charge Indy -Definitely a tough one to figure. Borel will get the rail as long as he wants it.
4 - Union Rags - Everybody in my Derby group is falling into the same trap, expecting him to take a step forward despite no evidence that he can, and paying a terrible price to boot. Does he have the talent? I don't know, but you are paying 9-2, near favoritism for the POSSIBILITY.
5 - Dullahan - He probably would have rather drawn a bit further outside, but I don't think it's a big deal. I'm inclined to say he's much more likely in 5th-8th place, than 1st-4th.
6 - Bodemeister - I think it's a very good draw. The question is can Smith get him to settle at the right pace to be able to carry his speed. It may all depend on how fast Trinniberg goes.
7 - Rousing Sermon - Outsider closer that may have a chance for 4th.
8 - Creative Cause - Most of my group is souring on him. I'm not sure that I have yet. Yes, he has hung a bit in the stretch, but he beat Bodemeister once.
9 - Trinniberg - He's a speedster, and I think he will lead for about 7/8 of a mile, and then fade. I'll be wheeling him in 19th and 20th place on all tickets.
10 - Daddy Nose Best - My daughters pick, but I think she is biased. I think he would need a perfect setup and trip to win, don't think he will get it.
11 - Alpha - Everything seems to be shaping up well for him. Good draw, training up well, added distance. Big threat.
12 - Prospective - Hard to see better than 4th for this outsider.
13 - Went The Day Well - I think he will be overrated based on the Animal Kingdom comparisons, but the simple fact is that despite his running style, he is not well suited for this distance. I'm inclined to toss him.
14 - Hansen - Is game, but I just don't think he will want the distance. 3rd at best, but I think he fades to 7th or 8th.
15 - Gemologist - He drew perfectly, and is a huge threat to win.
16 - El Padrino - Not a bad draw for him either. An outside threat at the win.
17 - Done Talking - The less time I talk about him, the better off I am.
18 - Sabercat - Another outsider that could maybe crash the party if the pace collapses. Thinking no though.
19 - I'll Have Another - I don't think he is as good as some of the others here, so I am inclined to pass.
20 - Liaison - He has Baffert and bad form. I pass.
21AE - My Adonis - Maybe he could crash the party also if the pace totally collapses, and that's even if he gets in the field. I will pass.
Now, the big moment....the prediction....in what is maybe the most difficult Kentucky Derby I have ever handicapped.
1st - Alpha
2nd - Bodemeister
3rd - Gemologist
4th - Take Charge Indy
Tuesday, May 01, 2012
El Padrino - 2012 Kentucky Derby preview
This is another one I just have no clue how to deal with.
The Good:
1) One of only 4 horses who has a triple digit Beyer speed figure, a 100 in a non-winners of 1 race at Gulfstream, on a "good" track, a race in which he beat Take Charge Indy.
2) His Risen Star race got a 98 Beyer at Fairgrounds. Combine that with a win at Belmont, and he has won on 3 different tracks.
3) There is stamina in his bloodlines, with both AP Indy and Giants Causeway as "grandparents".
4) His stalking style is almost a perfect fit for the Derby.
5) Pletcher....despite the Derby record one of the best in the business.
The Bad:
1) Horses out of Pulpit in general haven't seemed to get the Derby distance. Pulpit himself faded in the last eighth of a mile. El Padrino has seemed to flatten out a bit in the end of his races.
2) Both of his starts at 1 and 1/16 miles were revelations, then he regressed in the Florida Derby. A closer look at that race though may provide a reason for the struggle. He raced wide most of the way, and in watching that race, it seemed jockey JJ Castellano was more interested in keeping Union Rags in tight along the rail, then he was in racing his own horse. You can bet that Rafael Bejarano will not make that mistake in the Derby. Because of that, I argue that you could almost completely discount this race from his record.
3) 2 of his 3 wins were on an off track. It can definitely be argued that his chances increase if the going is wet.
Betting strategy:
Is he going to be overlooked? I'm not sure. His speed figures fit, his running style fits, he has one of the best trainers and a good jock. He also shares my birthday, which probably can't be a bad thing. I think he will go off around 12-1 or so, and I think that's a pretty good price on him.
So in the 30-45 minutes that I just spent devouring his past performances and race history, I believe I have talked myself into including him on most of my tickets, and believe he has a legitimate shot at winning.
The Good:
1) One of only 4 horses who has a triple digit Beyer speed figure, a 100 in a non-winners of 1 race at Gulfstream, on a "good" track, a race in which he beat Take Charge Indy.
2) His Risen Star race got a 98 Beyer at Fairgrounds. Combine that with a win at Belmont, and he has won on 3 different tracks.
3) There is stamina in his bloodlines, with both AP Indy and Giants Causeway as "grandparents".
4) His stalking style is almost a perfect fit for the Derby.
5) Pletcher....despite the Derby record one of the best in the business.
The Bad:
1) Horses out of Pulpit in general haven't seemed to get the Derby distance. Pulpit himself faded in the last eighth of a mile. El Padrino has seemed to flatten out a bit in the end of his races.
2) Both of his starts at 1 and 1/16 miles were revelations, then he regressed in the Florida Derby. A closer look at that race though may provide a reason for the struggle. He raced wide most of the way, and in watching that race, it seemed jockey JJ Castellano was more interested in keeping Union Rags in tight along the rail, then he was in racing his own horse. You can bet that Rafael Bejarano will not make that mistake in the Derby. Because of that, I argue that you could almost completely discount this race from his record.
3) 2 of his 3 wins were on an off track. It can definitely be argued that his chances increase if the going is wet.
Betting strategy:
Is he going to be overlooked? I'm not sure. His speed figures fit, his running style fits, he has one of the best trainers and a good jock. He also shares my birthday, which probably can't be a bad thing. I think he will go off around 12-1 or so, and I think that's a pretty good price on him.
So in the 30-45 minutes that I just spent devouring his past performances and race history, I believe I have talked myself into including him on most of my tickets, and believe he has a legitimate shot at winning.
Daddy Nose Best - 2012 Kentucky Derby preview
The horses I'm doing near the end are clearly the ones that I have the least informed opinion of, outside of the outsiders that I don't plan on dedicating a single post to. Daddy Nose Best is one of those horses that I have really been wrestling with in my mind.
The good:
1. He is one of only 4 horses with a triple digit Beyer in the field, which will be required to win this race.
2. He has twice won at a distance of a mile and an eighth.
3. This is his third race of the year, which is again typically a big effort in the form cycle.
4. His running style suggests he will be a deep closer in this field, which figures to be good for him as it looks like a hot pace for this year.
5. He has won on all 3 surfaces, which suggests that he shouldn't have a problem with the track.
6. All reports indicate that he is training up really well.
The bad:
1. I believe he was the beneficiary of an absolutely PERFECT trip in the Sunland Derby, and think that speed figure may not be attainable under conditions any more adverse than what he received there.
2. His ability to get the distance is a question mark. His sire, Scat Daddy won the Florida Derby at a mile and an eighth, but Scat Daddy ran 18th in the Derby.
3. While his win was impressive in the Sunland Derby, it didn't appear that he was relishing the last eighth of a mile, which makes me question how much he wants another furlong. But, the time for that final quarter mile was 12 and change, which wasn't all that bad.
4. The first two starts of his career were at Churchill, with one being a decent 2nd in a MSW, and the other one being a badly beaten 7th in another MSW.
5. His running style, while it may be flattered by the Derby pace, will likely require him to travel very wide, or weave through traffic.
Betting strategy:
I'm thinking he's going to go off at 18-1 or so, which is a great price based on his last race Beyer. He is getting largely overlooked due to the quality in this field. He should definitely get a good pace to run at, and is one of the few in this field who you would expect to be running late. I can't use him as a key horse, but I can certainly use him on my tickets, perhaps even as high as the win.
The good:
1. He is one of only 4 horses with a triple digit Beyer in the field, which will be required to win this race.
2. He has twice won at a distance of a mile and an eighth.
3. This is his third race of the year, which is again typically a big effort in the form cycle.
4. His running style suggests he will be a deep closer in this field, which figures to be good for him as it looks like a hot pace for this year.
5. He has won on all 3 surfaces, which suggests that he shouldn't have a problem with the track.
6. All reports indicate that he is training up really well.
The bad:
1. I believe he was the beneficiary of an absolutely PERFECT trip in the Sunland Derby, and think that speed figure may not be attainable under conditions any more adverse than what he received there.
2. His ability to get the distance is a question mark. His sire, Scat Daddy won the Florida Derby at a mile and an eighth, but Scat Daddy ran 18th in the Derby.
3. While his win was impressive in the Sunland Derby, it didn't appear that he was relishing the last eighth of a mile, which makes me question how much he wants another furlong. But, the time for that final quarter mile was 12 and change, which wasn't all that bad.
4. The first two starts of his career were at Churchill, with one being a decent 2nd in a MSW, and the other one being a badly beaten 7th in another MSW.
5. His running style, while it may be flattered by the Derby pace, will likely require him to travel very wide, or weave through traffic.
Betting strategy:
I'm thinking he's going to go off at 18-1 or so, which is a great price based on his last race Beyer. He is getting largely overlooked due to the quality in this field. He should definitely get a good pace to run at, and is one of the few in this field who you would expect to be running late. I can't use him as a key horse, but I can certainly use him on my tickets, perhaps even as high as the win.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Take Charge Indy - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Take Charge Indy is a horse that I have been intrigued in from the start, primarily due to his breeding. I even have a future bet on him to win the Derby at something like 40-1. Let's examine further.
The good:
1) Start with the most obvious, the breeding. He is out of AP Indy, who is by Seattle Slew. That's a ton of classic victories. AP Indy won the Belmont and the Breeders Cup Classic. Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. His Dam, Take Charge Lady ran 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks, and won 9 stakes races, going as far as 1 and 1/16 miles. Stamina is not an issue with this one.
2) He has taken a step forward as a 3 year old, and this is his 3rd race in his form cycle. His high Beyer of 96 is a little light, and definitely shy of where he needs to be. But the curious thing about his Florida Derby (95) race was it earned a 104 Bris figure, which is right on par with Bodemeister's big effort in the Arkansas Derby. A similar case can be made for his race prior to the Florida Derby, where his Beyer was low (96), but his Bris figure was through the roof at 109. This leads me to believe that something is going on with Gulfstream Park Beyers and Bris speed figures that require those races to be looked at a little bit more closely. (The same goes for Union Rags as well)
3) His rider is Calvin Borel, who has won 3 derbies in 5 years. Churchill is his home track. Nobody, and I mean nobody knows that track as well as he does, and I am counting on him being able to judge pace better than any other rider.
4) He seems to be very versatile, as he has gained ground and passed horses in the stretch (all in his 2 year old campaign), and also raced well while on the lead.
The bad:
1) His Florida Derby win has been discounted as he was able to set leisurely fractions, which is true. Union Rags also got boxed in and was given a poor ride, which compromised his chances. He will not get that free run on the lead.
2) The aforementioned Beyer figures definitely need to improve from where they are at now. Again, part of this I question due to the difference between Beyers and Bris at Gulfstream, but strictly based on Beyers, he needs to take a step forward.
3) While his best races have happened this year, they also have happened either on the lead or very close to the lead. Running with that style could potentially negatively effect his chances.
4) He raced at Churchill Downs once, in the Juvenile. It was not necessarily a bad race, but not a good race either. He got an 83 beyer, in what was his first race on dirt, finishing 5th in a tough field. This can in part be explained by the fact that he was doing something for the first time. Each of his subsequent races have been on dirt.
Betting strategy:
He's going to be probably 12-1 to 15-1, and he may be longer than that in the exotics pools since Borel will certainly drive his win price down. I can't help but think he is WAY underrated, as he is getting almost no press, as people are downplaying his Florida Derby win, and overplaying a lot of his rivals. I believe that he can run forever, and the only question is can he take a step forward off of his last two Gulfstream races, although as I mentioned earlier, those Beyer figures are questionable to me.
I will certainly have him on all of my tickets, and likely lobby to have him on all of the super tickets as well. I'm not sure we can use him as key horse, but I think that is likely to be due to my other ticket investors, and not through any knock against him.
The good:
1) Start with the most obvious, the breeding. He is out of AP Indy, who is by Seattle Slew. That's a ton of classic victories. AP Indy won the Belmont and the Breeders Cup Classic. Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. His Dam, Take Charge Lady ran 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks, and won 9 stakes races, going as far as 1 and 1/16 miles. Stamina is not an issue with this one.
2) He has taken a step forward as a 3 year old, and this is his 3rd race in his form cycle. His high Beyer of 96 is a little light, and definitely shy of where he needs to be. But the curious thing about his Florida Derby (95) race was it earned a 104 Bris figure, which is right on par with Bodemeister's big effort in the Arkansas Derby. A similar case can be made for his race prior to the Florida Derby, where his Beyer was low (96), but his Bris figure was through the roof at 109. This leads me to believe that something is going on with Gulfstream Park Beyers and Bris speed figures that require those races to be looked at a little bit more closely. (The same goes for Union Rags as well)
3) His rider is Calvin Borel, who has won 3 derbies in 5 years. Churchill is his home track. Nobody, and I mean nobody knows that track as well as he does, and I am counting on him being able to judge pace better than any other rider.
4) He seems to be very versatile, as he has gained ground and passed horses in the stretch (all in his 2 year old campaign), and also raced well while on the lead.
The bad:
1) His Florida Derby win has been discounted as he was able to set leisurely fractions, which is true. Union Rags also got boxed in and was given a poor ride, which compromised his chances. He will not get that free run on the lead.
2) The aforementioned Beyer figures definitely need to improve from where they are at now. Again, part of this I question due to the difference between Beyers and Bris at Gulfstream, but strictly based on Beyers, he needs to take a step forward.
3) While his best races have happened this year, they also have happened either on the lead or very close to the lead. Running with that style could potentially negatively effect his chances.
4) He raced at Churchill Downs once, in the Juvenile. It was not necessarily a bad race, but not a good race either. He got an 83 beyer, in what was his first race on dirt, finishing 5th in a tough field. This can in part be explained by the fact that he was doing something for the first time. Each of his subsequent races have been on dirt.
Betting strategy:
He's going to be probably 12-1 to 15-1, and he may be longer than that in the exotics pools since Borel will certainly drive his win price down. I can't help but think he is WAY underrated, as he is getting almost no press, as people are downplaying his Florida Derby win, and overplaying a lot of his rivals. I believe that he can run forever, and the only question is can he take a step forward off of his last two Gulfstream races, although as I mentioned earlier, those Beyer figures are questionable to me.
I will certainly have him on all of my tickets, and likely lobby to have him on all of the super tickets as well. I'm not sure we can use him as key horse, but I think that is likely to be due to my other ticket investors, and not through any knock against him.
I'll Have Another - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
I'll Have Another is a horse that has given me a lot of difficulty as far as handicapping. I'm not sure that I can pinpoint the exact reasons why, but I have really struggled with him.
The good:
1) He is 2 for 2 this year, winning a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 at Santa Anita.
2) His speed figures for the year are decent, 96 and 94 in his two starts, and this being his 3rd race of the year he is definitely eligible to improve.
3) His sire Flower Alley, didn't make the Derby distance when he raced in it, but he did follow up by winning the Travers and finished 2nd in the Breeders Cup, so the distance shouldn't be a problem.
4) His win over Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby was very game, although there is the question as to whether or not Creative Cause was wound very tightly for that start.
5) His running style should ensure that he gets a good trip.
The bad:
1) His only race outside of California was a dismal performance in the Hopeful Stakes. It's possible it was the sloppy track that was the reason for his performance. But I am always skeptical of horses who throw their best few races on a specific track, especially when that track is not Churchill Downs.
2) His aforementioned Beyer Speed figures are a little on the low side, with a 96 being his highest. He will have to step forward off of that. The fact that he didn't improve in going an extra 1/16 of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby is also concerning.
3) In general, Flower Alley has been an average sire to this point.
4) The Santa Anita Derby hasn't produced much in the Kentucky Derby lately, though the recent switch to dirt last year definitely increases it's relevance. Last years Santa Anita Derby winner, Midnight Interlude raced poorly on Derby day.
5) The running style previously mentioned as a plus, scares me slightly in that he may be a little too close to a hot, contested early pace. In the Derby that Flower Alley ran in, he pressed the pace in 2nd but gave way after about 3/4 of a mile.
Betting strategy:
He's likely to be in the 10-1 to 15-1 range, as despite being the Santa Anita Derby winner, he isn't getting a lot of attention. I think that's right around where he should be, considering his 96 top Beyer, and the questions I have.
My hopes were that after writing this up, some of my questions in my head would be resolved, but unfortunately that's not the case. I would be surprised if he won, but not shocked. My inclination is to leave him off of my personal smaller money tickets, but I believe we will use him in the Superfecta tickets, as it makes sense from a value perspective, likely even as a potential winner on some of the key tickets.
The good:
1) He is 2 for 2 this year, winning a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 at Santa Anita.
2) His speed figures for the year are decent, 96 and 94 in his two starts, and this being his 3rd race of the year he is definitely eligible to improve.
3) His sire Flower Alley, didn't make the Derby distance when he raced in it, but he did follow up by winning the Travers and finished 2nd in the Breeders Cup, so the distance shouldn't be a problem.
4) His win over Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby was very game, although there is the question as to whether or not Creative Cause was wound very tightly for that start.
5) His running style should ensure that he gets a good trip.
The bad:
1) His only race outside of California was a dismal performance in the Hopeful Stakes. It's possible it was the sloppy track that was the reason for his performance. But I am always skeptical of horses who throw their best few races on a specific track, especially when that track is not Churchill Downs.
2) His aforementioned Beyer Speed figures are a little on the low side, with a 96 being his highest. He will have to step forward off of that. The fact that he didn't improve in going an extra 1/16 of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby is also concerning.
3) In general, Flower Alley has been an average sire to this point.
4) The Santa Anita Derby hasn't produced much in the Kentucky Derby lately, though the recent switch to dirt last year definitely increases it's relevance. Last years Santa Anita Derby winner, Midnight Interlude raced poorly on Derby day.
5) The running style previously mentioned as a plus, scares me slightly in that he may be a little too close to a hot, contested early pace. In the Derby that Flower Alley ran in, he pressed the pace in 2nd but gave way after about 3/4 of a mile.
Betting strategy:
He's likely to be in the 10-1 to 15-1 range, as despite being the Santa Anita Derby winner, he isn't getting a lot of attention. I think that's right around where he should be, considering his 96 top Beyer, and the questions I have.
My hopes were that after writing this up, some of my questions in my head would be resolved, but unfortunately that's not the case. I would be surprised if he won, but not shocked. My inclination is to leave him off of my personal smaller money tickets, but I believe we will use him in the Superfecta tickets, as it makes sense from a value perspective, likely even as a potential winner on some of the key tickets.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Alpha - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Alpha is one of the more curious horses in this years projected Kentucky Derby field. There are a lot of things to like, things to not like, and some questions that I would have liked answered in the prep races that unfortunately still linger.
The good:
1) His top Beyer speed figure of 98 stacks up pretty well with the rest of the field, outside of Bodemeister. Sure, he will have to take a step forward to win, but that goes for almost every horse in the field.
2) His running style is prefect for the race, with his ideal spot probably 4th-7th down the backstretch, making a move on the turn.
3) His sire is Bernardini, out of AP Indy. His best race also came in his longest race, indicating he may get better with distance. The Derby distance shouldn't be a problem at all.
4) His top figure, in the Wood Memorial, he nearly passed Gemologist, despite getting a very troubled trip, and sustaining a cut on his leg.
The bad:
1) First, the obvious, his worst race by far came at Churchill Downs in the Juvenile, where he was a badly beaten 11th. He was fractious in the gate, so you could maybe discount this performance, but it's still there for all to see.
2) Despite running well at 3 of the 4 tracks he has been on, all dirt, none of them have been outside of New York. I am particularly suspicious of horses whose top figures have come at Aqueduct, as through personal experience they seem unlikely to repeat elsewhere.
3) The aforementioned cut/injury kept him out of training for a few days. He just had a sharp workout at Belmont Park which seems to indicate that he is healed, but you never want an interruption in training to coincide with your preparation for the biggest and most demanding race of his life.
4) Despite having a good run at Gemologist, he was never able to get by him. Was that a product of Gemologist heart, or an indictment against Alpha.
5) It's something I have noticed, and my friend Erin also brought it up to me. Bernardini colts seem to develop a bit later than other horses. Stay Thirsty last year comes to mind.
Betting strategy:
He is going to be a nice price in the Derby, potentially around 15-1, which is phenomenal considering his speed figures are comparable to horses that are expected to fall around the 5-1 to 8-1 range. He isn't being ignored, but in this Derby field there are a lot of other horses to take money in this field.
He should be able to manufacture a good trip, and be in good striking position when turning for home. The only real question is whether or not he is good enough to win.
My plan is to likely include Alpha on all of my tickets, likely in all of the spots, including the win. I have a few too many questions to use him as a key horse, but he would definitely not surprise me to see him crack the superfecta.
The good:
1) His top Beyer speed figure of 98 stacks up pretty well with the rest of the field, outside of Bodemeister. Sure, he will have to take a step forward to win, but that goes for almost every horse in the field.
2) His running style is prefect for the race, with his ideal spot probably 4th-7th down the backstretch, making a move on the turn.
3) His sire is Bernardini, out of AP Indy. His best race also came in his longest race, indicating he may get better with distance. The Derby distance shouldn't be a problem at all.
4) His top figure, in the Wood Memorial, he nearly passed Gemologist, despite getting a very troubled trip, and sustaining a cut on his leg.
The bad:
1) First, the obvious, his worst race by far came at Churchill Downs in the Juvenile, where he was a badly beaten 11th. He was fractious in the gate, so you could maybe discount this performance, but it's still there for all to see.
2) Despite running well at 3 of the 4 tracks he has been on, all dirt, none of them have been outside of New York. I am particularly suspicious of horses whose top figures have come at Aqueduct, as through personal experience they seem unlikely to repeat elsewhere.
3) The aforementioned cut/injury kept him out of training for a few days. He just had a sharp workout at Belmont Park which seems to indicate that he is healed, but you never want an interruption in training to coincide with your preparation for the biggest and most demanding race of his life.
4) Despite having a good run at Gemologist, he was never able to get by him. Was that a product of Gemologist heart, or an indictment against Alpha.
5) It's something I have noticed, and my friend Erin also brought it up to me. Bernardini colts seem to develop a bit later than other horses. Stay Thirsty last year comes to mind.
Betting strategy:
He is going to be a nice price in the Derby, potentially around 15-1, which is phenomenal considering his speed figures are comparable to horses that are expected to fall around the 5-1 to 8-1 range. He isn't being ignored, but in this Derby field there are a lot of other horses to take money in this field.
He should be able to manufacture a good trip, and be in good striking position when turning for home. The only real question is whether or not he is good enough to win.
My plan is to likely include Alpha on all of my tickets, likely in all of the spots, including the win. I have a few too many questions to use him as a key horse, but he would definitely not surprise me to see him crack the superfecta.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Hansen - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Hansen is probably the most accomplished horse in this field, and yet I find him one of the more difficult to handicap for this Derby because I have a lot of questions about him and how the race will play out.
The good -
1. He's won 4 of 6 starts, with 2 seconds the times he didn't win.
2. He won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill in November, beating many of the horses that are racing again in the Derby.
3. He appears to be very game, as he dug in when headed in the Juvenile.
4. He's very consistent, last 4 Beyers 96, 95, 96, 94.
5. He's almost white as snow. You will always know where he's at in the field, regardless of saddlecloth color.
The bad -
1. He sure doesn't look like a horse that wants any more distance than he has already traveled. His longest race, the Blue Grass at a mile and an eighth, he was caught in the stretch. In the Juvenile at 1 and 1/16 miles, he was nearly caught, barely holding off a few challengers. Tapit colts, like Pulpit colts, seem to be better around a mile to 1 and 1/16.
2. His running style is not the most conducive to winning the Derby. He has been in front at nearly every call of his races except for the Gotham, where he stalked the pace in 2nd and ran a big race. That was a new dimension that I expected to see in the Blue Grass, so either it was bad race riding by Dominguez, or the horse really wanted the lead (I'm inclined to believe this is the case). In any case, wanting the lead in this Derby is not a good idea.
3. His consistent speed figures that I alluded to, while nice, are not high enough to win the Derby. He had a 94 in the Juvenile last year, and has now raced 3 times this year, with all between 95-96. That seems like a horse that has topped out, and isn't going to make a huge jump the first Saturday in May, especially considering that his chances are likely to be compromised by the added distance and pace setup.
Betting strategy -
He's probably going to be around 10-1 or so, which is a great price considering he's the 2 year old champion, and he's in good form this year as well. That being said, that form doesn't look like it's good enough to be the best on Derby day. On top of that, his running style and pedigree suggests he will be moving backwards at the wire rather than forward. Unless the track is very speed favoring, or some of the early speed defects from the race, I am inclined to avoid him entirely on my tickets. For superfecta strategy, I am inclined to play him as high as 3rd on a few backup style tickets, maybe 4th on a main ticket, but off the board on the primary tickets.
The good -
1. He's won 4 of 6 starts, with 2 seconds the times he didn't win.
2. He won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill in November, beating many of the horses that are racing again in the Derby.
3. He appears to be very game, as he dug in when headed in the Juvenile.
4. He's very consistent, last 4 Beyers 96, 95, 96, 94.
5. He's almost white as snow. You will always know where he's at in the field, regardless of saddlecloth color.
The bad -
1. He sure doesn't look like a horse that wants any more distance than he has already traveled. His longest race, the Blue Grass at a mile and an eighth, he was caught in the stretch. In the Juvenile at 1 and 1/16 miles, he was nearly caught, barely holding off a few challengers. Tapit colts, like Pulpit colts, seem to be better around a mile to 1 and 1/16.
2. His running style is not the most conducive to winning the Derby. He has been in front at nearly every call of his races except for the Gotham, where he stalked the pace in 2nd and ran a big race. That was a new dimension that I expected to see in the Blue Grass, so either it was bad race riding by Dominguez, or the horse really wanted the lead (I'm inclined to believe this is the case). In any case, wanting the lead in this Derby is not a good idea.
3. His consistent speed figures that I alluded to, while nice, are not high enough to win the Derby. He had a 94 in the Juvenile last year, and has now raced 3 times this year, with all between 95-96. That seems like a horse that has topped out, and isn't going to make a huge jump the first Saturday in May, especially considering that his chances are likely to be compromised by the added distance and pace setup.
Betting strategy -
He's probably going to be around 10-1 or so, which is a great price considering he's the 2 year old champion, and he's in good form this year as well. That being said, that form doesn't look like it's good enough to be the best on Derby day. On top of that, his running style and pedigree suggests he will be moving backwards at the wire rather than forward. Unless the track is very speed favoring, or some of the early speed defects from the race, I am inclined to avoid him entirely on my tickets. For superfecta strategy, I am inclined to play him as high as 3rd on a few backup style tickets, maybe 4th on a main ticket, but off the board on the primary tickets.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Bodemeister - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Just two weeks ago there was debate as to whether or not Bodemeister would even make the Derby field, as he needed a win or a 2nd place in the Arkansas Derby to secure his spot in the field. A 9 length victory and a 108 Beyer later and he is the presumed favorite (at least presumed by me).
The good -
1) He has the highest last race Beyer in the field, at 108. And he has 3 triple digit Beyers, whereas nobody else in the field even has 2.
2) He passes the eye test. As Sonny said, he "looks" fast.
3) His sire is Empire Maker, who won the Belmont, and ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, so despite the appearance that he portrays as a speed horse, he has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree.
4) Trained by Bob Baffert....as said in the Secret Circle post, he knows how to win Derbies.
5) He showed an ability to rate from just off the pace in the San Felipe, a race that he took the lead in the stretch, ran greenly, and was outfinished by Creative Cause. While finishing 2nd was disappointing, it shows a different dimension, that may be required to win the Derby.
6) The Arkansas Derby was won at Oaklawn Park, a surface that many consider to be very similar to Churchill Downs.
7) He is ridden by Mike Smith, who is widely considered the top jock around.
The bad - Not a lot of bad here, the stuff below is reaching.
1) Never raced as a 2 year old. Yes, this is a trend that he is bucking, as no horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 in like forever. Personally I feel it is meaningless, as he raced on January 16th, had it been 17 days earlier this point would have been moot.
2) Only 4 lifetime races. Similar to Gemologist, he is very lightly raced. He showed that lack of experience in the stretch of the San Felipe, when he weaved in and out in the stretch. Looked much more professional in the Arkansas Derby though.
3) His running style is what many will point to as a hang-up, and part of me wants to agree. The pace will likely be hot with the addition of Trinniberg to the field, and winning the Derby on the front end is an extremely difficult task, unless you are allowed to get away with moderate fractions. The hope for his backers is that Smith will be able to settle him in a good spot behind Trinniberg, and wait for him to inevitably stop. The key will be for Smith to judge the pace keenly and keep him in a striking position while not burning him up early.
Betting strategy - I think he will be the favorite. Top last race Beyer,. 3 triple digit Beyers, Bob Baffert, etc....probably somewhere around 4-1. I will likely use him everywhere on my tickets, but I don't forsee myself using him as a key horse, just due to the risk of him blowing himself out in a speed duel. If this race was devoid of early speed, I would have no problem keying on him, but that's not the case at this point. He looks to be the best horse in the field, but the best horse rarely wins the Derby. I expect him to throw a strong race, and am anxious to see if Gemologist, Creative Cause, Union Rags, Dullahan, or someone else can run him down.
The good -
1) He has the highest last race Beyer in the field, at 108. And he has 3 triple digit Beyers, whereas nobody else in the field even has 2.
2) He passes the eye test. As Sonny said, he "looks" fast.
3) His sire is Empire Maker, who won the Belmont, and ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, so despite the appearance that he portrays as a speed horse, he has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree.
4) Trained by Bob Baffert....as said in the Secret Circle post, he knows how to win Derbies.
5) He showed an ability to rate from just off the pace in the San Felipe, a race that he took the lead in the stretch, ran greenly, and was outfinished by Creative Cause. While finishing 2nd was disappointing, it shows a different dimension, that may be required to win the Derby.
6) The Arkansas Derby was won at Oaklawn Park, a surface that many consider to be very similar to Churchill Downs.
7) He is ridden by Mike Smith, who is widely considered the top jock around.
The bad - Not a lot of bad here, the stuff below is reaching.
1) Never raced as a 2 year old. Yes, this is a trend that he is bucking, as no horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 in like forever. Personally I feel it is meaningless, as he raced on January 16th, had it been 17 days earlier this point would have been moot.
2) Only 4 lifetime races. Similar to Gemologist, he is very lightly raced. He showed that lack of experience in the stretch of the San Felipe, when he weaved in and out in the stretch. Looked much more professional in the Arkansas Derby though.
3) His running style is what many will point to as a hang-up, and part of me wants to agree. The pace will likely be hot with the addition of Trinniberg to the field, and winning the Derby on the front end is an extremely difficult task, unless you are allowed to get away with moderate fractions. The hope for his backers is that Smith will be able to settle him in a good spot behind Trinniberg, and wait for him to inevitably stop. The key will be for Smith to judge the pace keenly and keep him in a striking position while not burning him up early.
Betting strategy - I think he will be the favorite. Top last race Beyer,. 3 triple digit Beyers, Bob Baffert, etc....probably somewhere around 4-1. I will likely use him everywhere on my tickets, but I don't forsee myself using him as a key horse, just due to the risk of him blowing himself out in a speed duel. If this race was devoid of early speed, I would have no problem keying on him, but that's not the case at this point. He looks to be the best horse in the field, but the best horse rarely wins the Derby. I expect him to throw a strong race, and am anxious to see if Gemologist, Creative Cause, Union Rags, Dullahan, or someone else can run him down.
Dullahan - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Back in February I made a futures bet on Dullahan to win the Kentucky Derby at 40-1. I don't really remember what it is I liked about him back then, coming off of his 4th place in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but he has certainly moved forward since then.
The Good:
1) He finally seemed to put things altogether in the Blue Grass, coming from well off the the pace, and making a Derby type winning move down the lane to get by Hansen.
2) His speed figures are improving with every race, albeit a very slow incline.
3) He has a sold foundation of 4 races over 1 mile at 2, and now two races at 1 1/8 miles at 3.
4) He is moving into his all-important 3rd race of the year in his form cycle, suggesting he could peak with the Derby.
5) He was a 250K purchase as a yearling, so somebody sees a lot of talent in him.
6) Dale Romans led Shackleford through the Triple Crown campaign last year, and I suspect he learned some things for this go-around.
7) Kent Desormeaux knows how to win Derbies, with 3 wins to his credit.
The Bad:
1) He has two races at Churchill in his career, a 5th place in a maiden race, and then a 4th in the Juvenile, beaten by 3 horses who are going in the Derby this year. While Dullahan has improved since then, so have at least 2 of the horses who finished ahead of him.
2) His speed figures seem a little light, with the 98 in the Blue Grass being his only race above a 90 in 7 previous starts. His highest dirt Beyer is an 83. His best races thus far have been on Polytrack and Turf.
3) His Blue Grass race gave him almost a perfect trip, chasing a pretty hot pace that set it up perfectly for him.
4) His running style, while likely to be flattered by a hot Derby pace, may force him to cover a lot of extra ground, and may get him blocked behind traffic.
5) He has 8 starts, and his record of 2-2-2 in those starts isn't the most inspiring.
6) I don't know a lot about his sire, Even the Score, but his sires sire was Unbridled's Song, who couldn't get the Derby distance.
Betting Strategy:
He is likely to be around the 5th choice in the Derby, with odds somewhere between 10-1 and 12-1. He may even go lower as sort of a wise guy horse. He is likely to be coming late, but based on everything that I have examined, it's going to be asking an awful lot for him to be the winner. To make him the winner, you have to be able to surmise that he will run better on Churchill this time than the previous two chances that he had, turn the tables on the 3 horses that finished ahead of him in the Juvenile on the same track, battle through the likely traffic trouble he will need to overcome, and also improve 5-7 Beyer figure points.
I could see playing him in 1st on a few backup type tickets, in 2nd on many tickets, and 3rd on virtually all tickets.
The Good:
1) He finally seemed to put things altogether in the Blue Grass, coming from well off the the pace, and making a Derby type winning move down the lane to get by Hansen.
2) His speed figures are improving with every race, albeit a very slow incline.
3) He has a sold foundation of 4 races over 1 mile at 2, and now two races at 1 1/8 miles at 3.
4) He is moving into his all-important 3rd race of the year in his form cycle, suggesting he could peak with the Derby.
5) He was a 250K purchase as a yearling, so somebody sees a lot of talent in him.
6) Dale Romans led Shackleford through the Triple Crown campaign last year, and I suspect he learned some things for this go-around.
7) Kent Desormeaux knows how to win Derbies, with 3 wins to his credit.
The Bad:
1) He has two races at Churchill in his career, a 5th place in a maiden race, and then a 4th in the Juvenile, beaten by 3 horses who are going in the Derby this year. While Dullahan has improved since then, so have at least 2 of the horses who finished ahead of him.
2) His speed figures seem a little light, with the 98 in the Blue Grass being his only race above a 90 in 7 previous starts. His highest dirt Beyer is an 83. His best races thus far have been on Polytrack and Turf.
3) His Blue Grass race gave him almost a perfect trip, chasing a pretty hot pace that set it up perfectly for him.
4) His running style, while likely to be flattered by a hot Derby pace, may force him to cover a lot of extra ground, and may get him blocked behind traffic.
5) He has 8 starts, and his record of 2-2-2 in those starts isn't the most inspiring.
6) I don't know a lot about his sire, Even the Score, but his sires sire was Unbridled's Song, who couldn't get the Derby distance.
Betting Strategy:
He is likely to be around the 5th choice in the Derby, with odds somewhere between 10-1 and 12-1. He may even go lower as sort of a wise guy horse. He is likely to be coming late, but based on everything that I have examined, it's going to be asking an awful lot for him to be the winner. To make him the winner, you have to be able to surmise that he will run better on Churchill this time than the previous two chances that he had, turn the tables on the 3 horses that finished ahead of him in the Juvenile on the same track, battle through the likely traffic trouble he will need to overcome, and also improve 5-7 Beyer figure points.
I could see playing him in 1st on a few backup type tickets, in 2nd on many tickets, and 3rd on virtually all tickets.
Gemologist - 2012 Kentucky Derby Profile
The Good - There is an absolute ton to like about this horse leading into the race from my perspective. So many that I am going to have to itemize them:
1) He has never been beaten, undefeated in 5 starts.
2) He has heart. He got headed by Alpha in the Wood Memorial, and had that unique cliche quality to look another horse in the eye and not let him get by. Reminds me a bit of Silver Charm at this point.
3) His sire is Tiznow, who won the Breeders Cup Classic at the Derby distance twice, including once (and maybe twice) at Churchill Downs.
4) He owns two victories over the Churchill Downs track. As mentioned before, Churchill seems to be a unique course, some horses love it, others hate it. Gemologist has proven to like it.
5) His trainer, love him or hate him, knows what he is doing. He only has 1 Derby to his credit, but is one of the best in the business.
6) His speed figures have improved in EVERY race he has ever ran. This will be his 3rd race of the year, and he should be primed to run a big one.
7) His running style is versatile, he has won on the lead, and he has won rating slightly off of the pace. His stalking style insures that he should get a decent trip.
8) He has won at 4 different tracks (Aqueduct, Churchill, Gulfstream and Turfway), and 2 different surfaces (Dirt and Synthetic).
The Bad - Not a lot of bad here, but in the interest of fairness I have to at least list the things that concern me.
1) He got a great trip in the Wood Memorial, but barely held off Alpha who had a rough trip. The final eighth of a mile was also run in over 13 1/5 seconds, which is not fast.
2) His speed figures, while improving, are a little light by Derby standards, with a 98 in the Wood Memorial. To win this Derby a horse probably needs to run a 103-105. Certainly not the lowest in the field, but not the highest either.
Betting strategy - He's liable to go off as one of the 4 favorites, but it's difficult to estimate where he will settle out at in the betting. I'm guessing he settles in as the 3rd choice, somewhere around 7-1 behind Union Rags and Bodemeister. This is very likely to be one of my key horses for the trifecta and/or superfecta, due to his consistency, versatility, likelihood to get a clean trip, and feeling that he is ramping up into a big race.
1) He has never been beaten, undefeated in 5 starts.
2) He has heart. He got headed by Alpha in the Wood Memorial, and had that unique cliche quality to look another horse in the eye and not let him get by. Reminds me a bit of Silver Charm at this point.
3) His sire is Tiznow, who won the Breeders Cup Classic at the Derby distance twice, including once (and maybe twice) at Churchill Downs.
4) He owns two victories over the Churchill Downs track. As mentioned before, Churchill seems to be a unique course, some horses love it, others hate it. Gemologist has proven to like it.
5) His trainer, love him or hate him, knows what he is doing. He only has 1 Derby to his credit, but is one of the best in the business.
6) His speed figures have improved in EVERY race he has ever ran. This will be his 3rd race of the year, and he should be primed to run a big one.
7) His running style is versatile, he has won on the lead, and he has won rating slightly off of the pace. His stalking style insures that he should get a decent trip.
8) He has won at 4 different tracks (Aqueduct, Churchill, Gulfstream and Turfway), and 2 different surfaces (Dirt and Synthetic).
The Bad - Not a lot of bad here, but in the interest of fairness I have to at least list the things that concern me.
1) He got a great trip in the Wood Memorial, but barely held off Alpha who had a rough trip. The final eighth of a mile was also run in over 13 1/5 seconds, which is not fast.
2) His speed figures, while improving, are a little light by Derby standards, with a 98 in the Wood Memorial. To win this Derby a horse probably needs to run a 103-105. Certainly not the lowest in the field, but not the highest either.
Betting strategy - He's liable to go off as one of the 4 favorites, but it's difficult to estimate where he will settle out at in the betting. I'm guessing he settles in as the 3rd choice, somewhere around 7-1 behind Union Rags and Bodemeister. This is very likely to be one of my key horses for the trifecta and/or superfecta, due to his consistency, versatility, likelihood to get a clean trip, and feeling that he is ramping up into a big race.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Creative Cause - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
The good: There is a lot to like about Creative Cause. First is his sire, Giant's Causeway is a beast. Believe Causeway ran 2nd in the Breeders Cup Classic at Churchill Downs, so affinity to Churchill and the 1 1/4 mile distance shouldn't be a problem.
Creative Cause ran 3rd at Churchill in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, beaten only a length by Hansen and Union Rags, so he definitely likes the track.
His top Beyer is a 102 from the San Felipe, in a race where he impressively ran by Bodemeister in the stretch. But, it looks like Bode got the worst from a trip perspective. While he was pulling along to set a fast pace, Creative Cause was stalking back in 4th-5th, and made a move around the turn.
His Beyer figures from his last 4 races were 94, 102, 92 and 92....it's possible that the 102 is the outlier. I'm inclined to think it is a legit 102 though, as Bodemeister appeared to legitimize that race with his run in the Arkansas Derby.
The bad: He bounced from that race in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing 2nd to I'll Have Another in a photo. His Beyer that race was 94, and the race wasn't visually impressive, especially considering that Creative Cause got a near perfect trip. But....he didn't need to win that race (similar to Union Rags last race), and it's possible they didn't have him totally amped up for the Santa Anita, preferring to focus on the big prize ahead.
He wore blinkers in his San Felipe (102 Beyer), then switched to no blinkers in the Santa Anita. The reports are that he will still have no blinkers for the Kentucky Derby. In general I am not a fan of going away from what worked in the best race of your career, but apparently the owner/trainer are going off of some less objective measure than speed rating and whether or not they won the race.
Betting strategy: He's probably going to be one of the top 4 choices, with odds settling somewhere around 8-1. Based on his one triple digit Beyer, and his victory over Bodemeister, he is definitely a significant threat to win. His running style suggests he should be able to carve out a decent trip a few lengths off the pace this time around as well. He has also never thrown a bad race, so you have to figure he will give it an honest try.
I don't feel he's the best horse in the field, but I definitely think he is one of the more honest, and could be worth using as a key horse in the Derby superfecta tickets.
Secret Circle - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Over the next 2 weeks, I will be posting thoughts on many of the key 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders. Today is the 2nd of such profiles. Follow the link for the profile on Union Rags.
The good: Secret Circle is trained by Bob Baffert, who knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby, owning 3 winners to his credit (though I think it's deservedly 2 and a half, since he picked up War Emblem merely 2 weeks or so before the Derby).
He holds a win at Churchill Downs, which is always a positive for Derby prospects. That win also came in almost the best company around, as he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint, at odds of 2-5.
From a speed figure perspective he's a contender, with a top Beyer of 102, and 5 Beyers at 95 or over.
The bad : Let's move on to the bad at this point. His top 5 Beyer figures have come at the shorter distances, with 92's at his two longest races, the 1 1/16 mile Rebel and the 1 1/8 mile Arkansas Derby.
He doesn't pass the eye test either. In the previously mentioned Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint, which is run at 6 furlongs, he was weaving in and out in the stretch, with a 3 length margin reduced to a length at the wire. He lost the Sham Stakes in a 5 horse field at Santa Anita getting a great stalking trip at a mile distance. He followed that up with an impressive win in the Southwest Stakes for his top Beyer of 102, but he won that against a very weak field where he again got a perfect stalking trip. The Rebel may have been one of his best preparations for what he will see on the Derby, as he managed to sit a little further back of the pace, make a move on the turn, draw clear, but again floundered a bit in the late stretch to a fast closing Optimizer, who is nothing to speak of. His final prep was the 2nd place to Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby. 2nd to a huge race like that doesn't look bad on the surface, but if you watched that race, Secret Circle was struggling badly in the stretch, again drifted in and out in the lane, and was almost passed for 2nd.
These patterns are not a sign of a horse who wants more distance. Quite the contrary, I think he wants far less distance and may be best at distances between 6-8 furlongs. The 10 furlongs of the Derby will be far more than he ever bargained for. The only conceivable way he could win the race is to actually make the lead or the top 2 in very slow fractions, like 24 and change to the quarter, and 48 and change to the half, which is very unlikely the way this field is shaping up.
Betting strategy: With the emergence of Bodemeister and Dullahan as top contenders, he is very likely to be a nice price, maybe in the range of 20-1. The reality of it is that I think his win odds should be closer to 60-1. I think he stands very little chance of catching even the slightest piece of the pie given his limited distance ability. In my book he is a complete toss from all but the smallest of my tickets.
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