Back in February I made a futures bet on Dullahan to win the Kentucky Derby at 40-1. I don't really remember what it is I liked about him back then, coming off of his 4th place in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but he has certainly moved forward since then.
The Good:
1) He finally seemed to put things altogether in the Blue Grass, coming from well off the the pace, and making a Derby type winning move down the lane to get by Hansen.
2) His speed figures are improving with every race, albeit a very slow incline.
3) He has a sold foundation of 4 races over 1 mile at 2, and now two races at 1 1/8 miles at 3.
4) He is moving into his all-important 3rd race of the year in his form cycle, suggesting he could peak with the Derby.
5) He was a 250K purchase as a yearling, so somebody sees a lot of talent in him.
6) Dale Romans led Shackleford through the Triple Crown campaign last year, and I suspect he learned some things for this go-around.
7) Kent Desormeaux knows how to win Derbies, with 3 wins to his credit.
The Bad:
1) He has two races at Churchill in his career, a 5th place in a maiden race, and then a 4th in the Juvenile, beaten by 3 horses who are going in the Derby this year. While Dullahan has improved since then, so have at least 2 of the horses who finished ahead of him.
2) His speed figures seem a little light, with the 98 in the Blue Grass being his only race above a 90 in 7 previous starts. His highest dirt Beyer is an 83. His best races thus far have been on Polytrack and Turf.
3) His Blue Grass race gave him almost a perfect trip, chasing a pretty hot pace that set it up perfectly for him.
4) His running style, while likely to be flattered by a hot Derby pace, may force him to cover a lot of extra ground, and may get him blocked behind traffic.
5) He has 8 starts, and his record of 2-2-2 in those starts isn't the most inspiring.
6) I don't know a lot about his sire, Even the Score, but his sires sire was Unbridled's Song, who couldn't get the Derby distance.
Betting Strategy:
He is likely to be around the 5th choice in the Derby, with odds somewhere between 10-1 and 12-1. He may even go lower as sort of a wise guy horse. He is likely to be coming late, but based on everything that I have examined, it's going to be asking an awful lot for him to be the winner. To make him the winner, you have to be able to surmise that he will run better on Churchill this time than the previous two chances that he had, turn the tables on the 3 horses that finished ahead of him in the Juvenile on the same track, battle through the likely traffic trouble he will need to overcome, and also improve 5-7 Beyer figure points.
I could see playing him in 1st on a few backup type tickets, in 2nd on many tickets, and 3rd on virtually all tickets.
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