Monday, April 02, 2012

High variance session

Sunday is historically my best winning day at Northville Downs, and with a baby girl on the way in 4 months, there may not be a lot more Sunday sessions in my future. So I decided to head over there. Immediately I ran into some interesting, tough spots....and then the session got really interesting.

Bad start: Playing 7 handed, UTG (playing about 300, loose and dumb) raises to 10, 2 people call. I re-raise QQ from the SB to 45, UTG calls without a lot of hesitation, rest fold. Flop is AJTccx. I check-fold to a bet of 40 and he shows KQ.

Gotta fold, right?: A bit later, I open with 99 to 10 UTG, and get 2 callers, both with position on me. Flop is 642hhx. I lead 20-25 and the button calls (very loose, semi-aggressive in some odd spots). Turn is a 6, I check call a bet of 40, intending to call any non-heart rivers. River is 7h. I check, he shoves for 80. I folded and he said he had 76. I tell him if that's the case than that was a bad river card for him.

Thought this may be a huge one: Open TT UTG to 12, one player calls, loose player from Hand #1 re-raises to 24, button cold calls, I call, other player calls. Flop T42sdd. Checked around. Turn 7s. I bet 40, short stack all-in for 65, loose re-raiser and button folds, I call, river 5h and I am good.

Dodging a huge bullet: All players are 325 effective. UTG (player from hand #2 who claimed he had 76) limps, UTG+3 raises to 12 (he is reasonably tight opening, certainly not anywhere near as laggy as I am), I decide to flat QQ right after him for safety, as well as to keep UTG in the hand. Rest fold and UTG calls. Flop 944r. UTG checks, original raiser bets 18, I call, now UTG check raises to 70. Original raiser 3 bets to 150 (this is KK minimum), I fold, UTG now looks pained and calls. Turn 8. UTG checks, original raiser says all-in, which UTG snap-calls. UTG shows Ad4d for flopped trips, while UTG+3 shows 99 for flopped full. I think there is a reasonable chance that if I 3 bet my QQ, at least one if not both of the players call, and I likely lose my stack on that board.

Bad flops continue: I raise 99 on the btn, and what has become the table fish calls in the BB (KQ guy from the first hand). Flop AKJ, he ckeck calls 16 on the flop, turn 7, both check, river K, he shoves for 50, I fold.

The day gets really fun: ATM Eric shows up (I didn't give him this nickname. He is all around a really nice guy that pisses a lot of people off by throwing money around in a ridiculous manner). This is my 2nd time playing with him, the first time being at the Heidelberg. That session I got all-in preflop with him for 225 with TT v 98s, and also doubled through him at 2/5 with him drawing dead. When he got to the table I realized that my normal game would have to go away, and any hand I played I would have to be prepared to go to the felt with. When you play with him, the game can be hugely profitable, but like the old hyper turbo SNG's on Pokerstars, you have to be prepared to take some miserable beats. I looked in my wallet and saw I only had $200 in reserve, on top of the $200 I had on the table at that point, so I started plotting my reload plan if necessary, as these situations don't come around often.

Gamble gamble 1: Eric raises to 10 (his first buy-in of 200 was down to 75), I 3 bet to 30 with AJo on the btn, he shoves and I call, and my hand holds vs his T9o.

Gamble gamble 2: Eric raises to 15 (he is down to 125 on his second buy-in of 200), I 3 bet to 45 with JJ from the blinds, he shoves and I call. Board runs out 532A4, and he has 96o to take the pot.

Gamble gamble 3: Eric straddles for 5 from the button (he has about 125 again), blind calls, UTG calls, I raise to 25 with KK, Eric shoves, rest fold and I call (he says "Me and You again?"). He tells another player that this time he has the best hand. Board runs out A3xKx, and his 43o is no match for my set of kings.

A real flop and turn: I limped 88 in EP, Eric raised to 10 (he's playing about 200). Duke calls in the blinds (very loose laggy player, between him and Eric at the table you have a dream action table). Flop comes 996r. Checked to Eric who bets 30, Duke folds and I call. Pot is about $90. Turn is a Q. I check, and Eric starts stacking out chips, then appears to change his mind and stacks them and goes all-in for $158. My initial inclination was to call, but the way he stacked out the chips gave me some pause, as it was in a different manner than before. Even if I call and am right, if he has two overcards he still has 6 outs. I was looking away from him, and then when I looked at him, he was leaning back, with his arms crossed (which is generally uncomfortable body-language). When he saw me looking at him, he immediately leaned forward and put his elbow on the table looking at me. The deliberate show of strength shifted things toward a call for me, and I put the chips in. River was a 5, and he says "I have a 5", and rolled over K5, and I took down a big pot.

This hand is a perfect example of how the guy can run over timid players. A ton of players would call the flop bet, but then meekly fold to the shove on the turn, but against these guys you have to take stands with marginal hands and be prepared to stack off extremely light. There is no point in even calling the flop bet if you aren't perpared to let him bluff the turn. Sure, he could have a 9, or a queen in that spot, but as you can see, there are also a shit ton of hands he can have that are drawing to 6 outs, 3 outs....or less.

Straddle record: Less than a month ago, Northville began allowing straddles from any position and for any amount of money. Eric (now he is in for $1150) previously held the "un-official" straddle record at $78, but was told it was beaten the other day with a straddle of $80. So he decided to button straddle for $85, with about $150 or so behind. SB folds, and Duke very forcefully raises to 210 in the BB. Rest fold to Eric who shoves for $240ish total. They roll their cards, Eric has K8o, Duke has ATdd. Flop is 8 high with 2 diamonds, but Duke misses all of his outs and Eric scoops the pot. Now Eric is approaching $500 in stack size, and is getting very dangerous.

Dream hand....or not???: I limp in EP with 77 (I have $500), Eric raises to 15 (playing $600), Duke calls in one of the blinds (playing about $360), and I call. Flop is T74dd. I notice Eric is palming about $50 in chips, waiting to bet. Duke donks 25, I call, Eric folds. Turn is a 3x. Duke bets 45, and I raise to 135. He calls without a lot hesitation. River is 6h. He jams for $158 more. Board is now T7436, with a missed diamond draw. Initially I am trying to figure out what hand that would donk the flop would have a 5 in it. A diamond draw with a 5 could have done that, but I don't think he would want to open the door to Eric making a big raise and pushing him off of the draw. Then I notice that 98 also got there. This is really starting to give me pause.

When he shoved, I was staring directly across the table at him and we held eye contact for a while. I stayed staring at him because I wanted to see what he would do when he finally got uncomfortable. It took a while but finally he smiled and waved. I asked if he would show if I folded, and he said "I'm not sure." Eric had stepped away from the table during the hand, and when he got back he called the clock on me. The whole time me and Duke were talking a bit to each other, with the dealer continuing to admonish us that we couldn't talk about our hands (dumb rule in a heads up pot I think, especially where one player is all-in). The dealer was doing a horrible job of telling me where the clock was, and then she said, "You have 8 seconds to decide.", and I immediately blurted out "I call." He rolls over AT, and I table my winner. Most of the table is shocked that I called, and generally impressed. After thinking about the hand more, maybe the call is a little more trivial given how big the pot was relative to the bet (it was about $350 going into the river).

After that I won a few more pots of decent size. I was starting to get really hungry as I skipped lunch, started to develop a headache, and also had a fantasy baseball draft going in a few hours, so I decided to bail and cash out a winner of $674. It was a super wild, high variance roller coaster, but fortunately I was able to come out on top.

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