Trying to focus more strongly on the Bowl games this year, in hopes of putting together a solid record.
New Mexico Bowl - Let's start this off by stating the obvious. Both teams have absolutely brutal defenses, averaging 190 and 213 yards allowed on the ground. Both teams also have dominant rushing attacks, with both averaging well north of 200 yards per game. With the dominant offenses and piss-poor defenses, the over seems obvious, right? You would be wrong, I am going to go the opposite direction. Both teams running the crap out of the ball means churning out a lot of 1st downs, and allowing the clock to continue to wind. The total is huge, 75 as of now after opening at 76. That requires 11 TD's to beat you. Nevada has gone over in 6 of 11 games this year, and Arizona has gone over in 8 of 11 games this year. But Nevada has only seen a high total of 70, and Arizona only has 1 game with a total higher than we see for this game. Add in the fact that Nevada will have 2 weeks off before playing, and Arizona 3 weeks off, and you could expect a bit of a slow start. Those things together just make it too difficult to project this game to easily reach the 70's. It may very well reach the 60's, but 38-31 will be fine for the under backers. Play: UNDER 76 3*
Potato Bowl - I'm kind of a fan of both of these teams. Toledo has a close loss to Arizona (though they were admittedly outplayed), and has a win over a decent Cincy team, and a close loss to class of MAC Northern Illinois. Utah State beat Utah, who wasn't very good, almost beat Wisconsin while they were reeling. Lost to BYU in a pathetic 6-3 game, and beat La Tech, a team that plays zero defense. Both teams played 1 point games last year in the bowls, with Toledo beating Air Force, and Utah losing to Ohio (also of the MAC). I personally think the MAC plays some good football, and this Toledo team is led by solid QB play. Toledo tends to play to the level of their opponents, never really blowing anyone out, but also being within a TD in all of their losses. I think Toledo is good enough to keep this close, and is a potential threat to win. Play: Toledo +10
Summary:
12/15: 3* Arizona/Nevada UNDER 76
12/15: 4* Toledo +10
Monday, December 10, 2012
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
A poker post?? Wow!
I was able to get away from the home life for my 4th short session since Marissa's birth. It was a busy Veteran's Day Monday at Northville Downs, and to show I don't discriminate, I thought a good way to spend it would be to try to extract money from both Vets and non-Vets alike.
My table was fairly active, a lot of straddling, a lot of pre-flop raising, and even some 3 betting. So not ideal, but a lot of the 3 betting was spewy, and there was way too much calling of 3 bets. Therefore, still beatable, and potentially very profitable, but higher variance at the same time. I started out winning a few smaller pots, and opened up a bit, but I folded to 3 bets on back to back hands, in both cases I had KJ, and I was back around even, and my image had started to erode. I began playing a little too passive for a few orbits, and potentially even a bit timid, and bled through about $75-80.
Hand #1: I topped off my stack, and UTG picked up AKo. I raised to 10, and got called by a good sometimes overly aggressive player two to my left, who had been making my life a little difficult (Over aggro for short), and eventually was called by 5 other players as well, including both blinds, making the pot $70. Flop was AQ7r. Checks to me, and I bet 35, pretty sure I was going to commit unless there was a raise and a call after me. The CO (older guy who covered) called, the button and SB also called (both with only about 50 more behind. The turn was a 9, and now the SB shoved for 50, I reshoved for about 150, CO folded, and button called. Somehow both players had KT, and I dodged the jack to pick up a nice pot, and I was suddenly ahead about $100.
Hand #2: A few hands later, 8 handed, I raised a weak limper on my right with 6c5c to $12. I was called in 3 spots, including the limper and one of the blinds. Flop came Kx9c7c, giving me a gutshot, flush draw, and even a gutshot straight flush draw. Checked to me, and with still a player to act behind me, I felt I had to c-bet, so I bet $30, and got called by the short stack SB, and then the weak limper raised to $130, leaving himself about $80-90 behind. I was clearly left with no fold equity, so despite hating it, I felt I had to fold as I think a hand like the nut flush draw is in his range of hands to make this move. The SB went all-in, and I got to see the hands. The SB had KQ, and the weak limper had 97 for bottom two pair. To add a bit of insult to injury the river was the 8c for a straight flush for me. Still the right play regardless of the result.
Hand #3: I open 7d6d 7 handed, and am again called by over aggro guy (I realized I should be tightening my raising range early on since I was getting called often and found myself OOP to him, and believe me, I did, it just seems like I was raising all of my suited connectors), as well as called by one of the blinds. Flop was Th6s2c, checks to me, and I decided to check to let aggro guy bet, figuring he would fire with almost 100% of his range here. Betting is probably better here, but I figured I would let him take the initiative, as my plan was call down mode. Turn was a 3s, I checked, he bet 40, and I elected to call, figuring him still for absolutely nothing. River was another 6 giving me trips, I checked, and he bet 80 - leaving himself about 80 more behind. I hemmed and hawed about raising him, but in the end just decided to call, as my read was that he was bluffing, and I didn't feel there was any value in a raise, as it would just be called by a hand that had me beat. I was shocked when he rolled over As6s and I lost the pot. His turn bet was what solidified the fact to me that he had nothing, as despite being over-aggro, he tended to check the turn when he had marginal showdown value. I guess picking up the flush draw emboldened him to bet (as it would have for me as well).
I should explain my thought process further, as I think it's where I went wrong in the hand, though in this case it wouldn't have mattered had I bet flop and bet turn. This guy also seemed to float an awful lot in position, and I felt that I could be put into a really tough spot every street by betting out and double barreling....though in the end that's exactly where I ended up. If I bet the flop and he calls, his hand still isn't very well defined given his wide range. By check calling, I was keeping his range at its widest.
Oh well, obviously I am a little confused at the spot I put myself into....folding pre-flop may be best when dealing with an opponent like this, or changing seats at the table.
Hand #4: Over aggro guy has started bleeding chips to other players, and is definitely not playing sharp, borderline tilty, and he straddled on the button to 7. Two very loose semi-aggro players call in the blinds, and it's folded to me in the CO with KQo. I feel like this one is very close, and could make a case for all of my 3 options. In the end I think Raising > Fold > Call, and I elected the high variance route and raised to 35. The button called, along with only one of the blinds (all stacks are roughly equal around $200ish). With over $100 in the pot, and only about $170 in my stack, I decided I had no choice but to commit if I hit top pair, unless something extraordinary happened like a player raising and showing me his cards after doing so in order to get me to fold. As far as C-betting, I wasn't sure what my plan would be, though I was thinking about cutting out a half pot bet at most boards if checked to me. The flop was QJx, the blind checked, I bet 50, over aggro guy shoved, blind folded and I called. It turned out I had him covered by $1. He had KT for an open ended draw. We ran it once (I never offered twice and it wasn't discussed), and my hand held up for a big pot.
Hand #5: Button straddles for 5, and the table dynamic has slightly changed, a little less aggressive. The straddler has not raised his straddle yet. A few players limp, I elect to limp the CO with Js9s. Button checks. Flop is KT8sxx. Checks to button, he bets 10, one player calls, and I call, but I hesitated, and intentionally looked kind of weak, trying to act like I had minor showdown value. Turn 3s, checks to button again, and he bets 22 with about 180 behind, other player folds and I was really close to raising, but felt that the weakness I showed earlier in the hand would be seen through and I would get looked up light, so elected to call. River was 6s giving me the flush. Since players instinctively check when a flush hits, even a backdoor one, I decided to try to bet large and look bluffy, and bet 65. He thought for about 30 seconds and called with what he said was a rivered two pair. In any case I think leading large got me the most money on the river, as he wasn't likely to call a check-raise in my opinion.
In the end I won a bit less than a buy-in, for a very swingy but profitable 4 hour session. A few parts of my game seem a bit rusty, but I also felt like I was seeing things for the most part very clearly. I may not have been mixing it up as much as I could have and fighting for every pot, but at 1/2 that just isn't necessary for the most part.
My table was fairly active, a lot of straddling, a lot of pre-flop raising, and even some 3 betting. So not ideal, but a lot of the 3 betting was spewy, and there was way too much calling of 3 bets. Therefore, still beatable, and potentially very profitable, but higher variance at the same time. I started out winning a few smaller pots, and opened up a bit, but I folded to 3 bets on back to back hands, in both cases I had KJ, and I was back around even, and my image had started to erode. I began playing a little too passive for a few orbits, and potentially even a bit timid, and bled through about $75-80.
Hand #1: I topped off my stack, and UTG picked up AKo. I raised to 10, and got called by a good sometimes overly aggressive player two to my left, who had been making my life a little difficult (Over aggro for short), and eventually was called by 5 other players as well, including both blinds, making the pot $70. Flop was AQ7r. Checks to me, and I bet 35, pretty sure I was going to commit unless there was a raise and a call after me. The CO (older guy who covered) called, the button and SB also called (both with only about 50 more behind. The turn was a 9, and now the SB shoved for 50, I reshoved for about 150, CO folded, and button called. Somehow both players had KT, and I dodged the jack to pick up a nice pot, and I was suddenly ahead about $100.
Hand #2: A few hands later, 8 handed, I raised a weak limper on my right with 6c5c to $12. I was called in 3 spots, including the limper and one of the blinds. Flop came Kx9c7c, giving me a gutshot, flush draw, and even a gutshot straight flush draw. Checked to me, and with still a player to act behind me, I felt I had to c-bet, so I bet $30, and got called by the short stack SB, and then the weak limper raised to $130, leaving himself about $80-90 behind. I was clearly left with no fold equity, so despite hating it, I felt I had to fold as I think a hand like the nut flush draw is in his range of hands to make this move. The SB went all-in, and I got to see the hands. The SB had KQ, and the weak limper had 97 for bottom two pair. To add a bit of insult to injury the river was the 8c for a straight flush for me. Still the right play regardless of the result.
Hand #3: I open 7d6d 7 handed, and am again called by over aggro guy (I realized I should be tightening my raising range early on since I was getting called often and found myself OOP to him, and believe me, I did, it just seems like I was raising all of my suited connectors), as well as called by one of the blinds. Flop was Th6s2c, checks to me, and I decided to check to let aggro guy bet, figuring he would fire with almost 100% of his range here. Betting is probably better here, but I figured I would let him take the initiative, as my plan was call down mode. Turn was a 3s, I checked, he bet 40, and I elected to call, figuring him still for absolutely nothing. River was another 6 giving me trips, I checked, and he bet 80 - leaving himself about 80 more behind. I hemmed and hawed about raising him, but in the end just decided to call, as my read was that he was bluffing, and I didn't feel there was any value in a raise, as it would just be called by a hand that had me beat. I was shocked when he rolled over As6s and I lost the pot. His turn bet was what solidified the fact to me that he had nothing, as despite being over-aggro, he tended to check the turn when he had marginal showdown value. I guess picking up the flush draw emboldened him to bet (as it would have for me as well).
I should explain my thought process further, as I think it's where I went wrong in the hand, though in this case it wouldn't have mattered had I bet flop and bet turn. This guy also seemed to float an awful lot in position, and I felt that I could be put into a really tough spot every street by betting out and double barreling....though in the end that's exactly where I ended up. If I bet the flop and he calls, his hand still isn't very well defined given his wide range. By check calling, I was keeping his range at its widest.
Oh well, obviously I am a little confused at the spot I put myself into....folding pre-flop may be best when dealing with an opponent like this, or changing seats at the table.
Hand #4: Over aggro guy has started bleeding chips to other players, and is definitely not playing sharp, borderline tilty, and he straddled on the button to 7. Two very loose semi-aggro players call in the blinds, and it's folded to me in the CO with KQo. I feel like this one is very close, and could make a case for all of my 3 options. In the end I think Raising > Fold > Call, and I elected the high variance route and raised to 35. The button called, along with only one of the blinds (all stacks are roughly equal around $200ish). With over $100 in the pot, and only about $170 in my stack, I decided I had no choice but to commit if I hit top pair, unless something extraordinary happened like a player raising and showing me his cards after doing so in order to get me to fold. As far as C-betting, I wasn't sure what my plan would be, though I was thinking about cutting out a half pot bet at most boards if checked to me. The flop was QJx, the blind checked, I bet 50, over aggro guy shoved, blind folded and I called. It turned out I had him covered by $1. He had KT for an open ended draw. We ran it once (I never offered twice and it wasn't discussed), and my hand held up for a big pot.
Hand #5: Button straddles for 5, and the table dynamic has slightly changed, a little less aggressive. The straddler has not raised his straddle yet. A few players limp, I elect to limp the CO with Js9s. Button checks. Flop is KT8sxx. Checks to button, he bets 10, one player calls, and I call, but I hesitated, and intentionally looked kind of weak, trying to act like I had minor showdown value. Turn 3s, checks to button again, and he bets 22 with about 180 behind, other player folds and I was really close to raising, but felt that the weakness I showed earlier in the hand would be seen through and I would get looked up light, so elected to call. River was 6s giving me the flush. Since players instinctively check when a flush hits, even a backdoor one, I decided to try to bet large and look bluffy, and bet 65. He thought for about 30 seconds and called with what he said was a rivered two pair. In any case I think leading large got me the most money on the river, as he wasn't likely to call a check-raise in my opinion.
In the end I won a bit less than a buy-in, for a very swingy but profitable 4 hour session. A few parts of my game seem a bit rusty, but I also felt like I was seeing things for the most part very clearly. I may not have been mixing it up as much as I could have and fighting for every pot, but at 1/2 that just isn't necessary for the most part.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Doc's Poker - What's your play?
I had a little more than an hour to kill before my championship softball game (which was subsequently rained out), so I stopped in at Docs, which is near the field for my game. There were 2 1/2 tables going, and both tables looked good. Unfortunately my table didn't have the spewiest fish that plays in the room, it did still have a few guys who make the table great. A few hands follow.
Hand #1 - 3 bet:
I had played one hand so far, where I raised pre in LP with Q5s, and check folded a T96 flop, so my stack was about 190. EP raised to 7, which typically isn't very strong, and I 3 bet next to act with AQo. One of the blinds cold called, who I didn't have a read on, and his stack was about 300. The original raiser called as well. The flop was 853r. Blind checks, initial pre-flop raiser counts out chips like he was going to bet, and then checks. I follow through as that feels weak as hell with a cbet of 45, and the blind quickly calls, initial raiser folds. Turn is a 3, making board 8533. I was planning on betting any face card or ace, but this is a pretty bad card. I don't think I am getting a fold out of a hand like 98, or 99. He checks, and I check behind. River is a T, making board 8533T. He leads out 20 into a pot of 150ish. I have about 130 behind. Does anybody like shoving here, or is it spew? How about barreling the turn?
Hand #2 - Loose preflop call creates weird spot:
I've lost a few hands at this point, and my stack has slipped to about 185. A fish limps, and then a super fish who makes all kinds of spewy plays with marginal hands in weird spots opens to 13. The SB (initial raiser from hand #1 calls), and I make a loose call with As8s, knowing almost 100% of the time that the fish is going to call to close the action. The fish has 100, raiser has 250, and SB has 210. Flop is AxKs8x, giving me two pair. The SB leads out 25, and I elect to just call, in hopes that the initial raiser makes a committing raise, and I can go heads up with him. The first fish folds, and now super fish raises to 75 after a lot of thought and fidgeting. His mannerisms at the time screamed of uncertainty, and though that can be hollywooding, my read was genuine uncertainty. While AK, AA and KK are options, I think a hand like AJ or AQ are far more likely based on his mannerisms. But now the surprise part comes in. I was trying to convey an aura of disinterest, but was surprised by the SB, who now shoved for 210. My initial read is that the SB is aggro. All-in or fold?
Results later.
Hand #1 - 3 bet:
I had played one hand so far, where I raised pre in LP with Q5s, and check folded a T96 flop, so my stack was about 190. EP raised to 7, which typically isn't very strong, and I 3 bet next to act with AQo. One of the blinds cold called, who I didn't have a read on, and his stack was about 300. The original raiser called as well. The flop was 853r. Blind checks, initial pre-flop raiser counts out chips like he was going to bet, and then checks. I follow through as that feels weak as hell with a cbet of 45, and the blind quickly calls, initial raiser folds. Turn is a 3, making board 8533. I was planning on betting any face card or ace, but this is a pretty bad card. I don't think I am getting a fold out of a hand like 98, or 99. He checks, and I check behind. River is a T, making board 8533T. He leads out 20 into a pot of 150ish. I have about 130 behind. Does anybody like shoving here, or is it spew? How about barreling the turn?
Hand #2 - Loose preflop call creates weird spot:
I've lost a few hands at this point, and my stack has slipped to about 185. A fish limps, and then a super fish who makes all kinds of spewy plays with marginal hands in weird spots opens to 13. The SB (initial raiser from hand #1 calls), and I make a loose call with As8s, knowing almost 100% of the time that the fish is going to call to close the action. The fish has 100, raiser has 250, and SB has 210. Flop is AxKs8x, giving me two pair. The SB leads out 25, and I elect to just call, in hopes that the initial raiser makes a committing raise, and I can go heads up with him. The first fish folds, and now super fish raises to 75 after a lot of thought and fidgeting. His mannerisms at the time screamed of uncertainty, and though that can be hollywooding, my read was genuine uncertainty. While AK, AA and KK are options, I think a hand like AJ or AQ are far more likely based on his mannerisms. But now the surprise part comes in. I was trying to convey an aura of disinterest, but was surprised by the SB, who now shoved for 210. My initial read is that the SB is aggro. All-in or fold?
Results later.
Monday, August 06, 2012
Favorite Poker posts
This is specifically for Frank Panama, who recently commented on my lack of recent blog posts. Unfortunately, I don't have any new content, and may not for a while, as my wife is due to give birth in a little over 2 weeks.
But, assuming the few readers I have haven't read through all of my archives, here are a few of my favorite poker posts:
#5: Learning NL 'Holdem
Right at the beginning of my NL journey. Sometimes you lose sight of the main goal, and that is stacking people. This post shows that I knew it right away, and it's sometimes important to remind yourself of your goals.
#4: Greektown 2/5 Game
Holy shit....Greektown had a 2/5 game going? Wait, they had 2 of them???
#3: Most Idiotic Hand
How could I not mention having a large raise called on the river by 9 high?
#2: 21K!!!
I wish the recap had more hand detail when I wrote it, but it's still a nice memory of my biggest tourney score.
#1: Golf trip report of a lifetime
This post is long, includes very little actual poker content. But it does include a great deal of degeneracy, and a huge winning rush if you fight through it til the end.
But, assuming the few readers I have haven't read through all of my archives, here are a few of my favorite poker posts:
#5: Learning NL 'Holdem
Right at the beginning of my NL journey. Sometimes you lose sight of the main goal, and that is stacking people. This post shows that I knew it right away, and it's sometimes important to remind yourself of your goals.
#4: Greektown 2/5 Game
Holy shit....Greektown had a 2/5 game going? Wait, they had 2 of them???
#3: Most Idiotic Hand
How could I not mention having a large raise called on the river by 9 high?
#2: 21K!!!
I wish the recap had more hand detail when I wrote it, but it's still a nice memory of my biggest tourney score.
#1: Golf trip report of a lifetime
This post is long, includes very little actual poker content. But it does include a great deal of degeneracy, and a huge winning rush if you fight through it til the end.
Thursday, June 07, 2012
2012 Belmont Stakes Preview
It's time to preview this weekends Belmont Stakes, which has
to be the most anticipated in recent memory, firstly because of another
opportunity to capture the elusive triple crown, and secondly because for some
reason this horse has captured the attention/imagination of more people than
other previous attempts. Do I think it
will happen? We'll see...
1 - Street Life -
This one intrigues me a bit. May
have been a bit late developing, and seeming to love all the extra distance
they can throw at him. I am always
skeptical of New York horses, but this race is at Belmont, where his best race
to date is. He will have to take a step
forward, but not as much as you may think IF (big capital letters here) I'll
Have Another and Paynter take a big step backwards, which is very possible.
2 - Unstoppable U - Another that could be very late
developing, but would have to take too big of a step forward. Also not sure how much he will appreciate the
distance, so he's a pass for me.
3 - Union Rags - My feelings about him are well known. He isn't good enough to win unless he takes a
big step forward. I think he's a likely 3rd
placer here, and probably a good distance behind the top 2.
4 - Atigun - Really??
Only chance is if the track comes up muddy, and the top contenders hate
it, which I doubt.
5 - Dullahan - I'm not telling anybody anything they don't know when
I say that he is the prime threat (one of two) to upset the triple crown
shot. He has gotten better pretty much
every race, was a fast closing 3rd in the Derby, perhaps the winner if they go
another 1/16 of a mile. Sometimes that
logic is faulty though, as we saw with Ice Box in the 2010 rendition. You
have to love that he took the 5 weeks off and is coming in fresh for this. All reports are that he is training
wonderfully. Does he have more
improvement in store, or is he topped out?
Will I Have Another regress off of his Preakness win? Those are the questions you have to ask
yourself.
6 - Ravelo's Boy - ZERO CHANCE
7 - Five Sixteen - Slightly greater than ZERO chance.
8 - Guyana Star Dweej
- The horse is nowhere near good enough, and is training poorly as
well. ZERO CHANCE.
9 - Paynter - The other most likely spoiler. His career mark looks similar to I'll Have
Another, he just arrived a bit late to the party. Ran a 106 Beyer at Pimlico on Preakness Day,
which rivals IHA's 109. His sire is
Awesome Again, a winner of the Breeders Cup Classic, so you wouldn't think the
distance would be a problem. Trained by
Baffert, no stranger to the Triple Crown trail.
Could Baffert run 2nd in all the crown races, with 2 different
horses? His running style is perfect, he
should be near the front and have zero traffic troubles. In fact, he may find himself in the lead or
in the 2nd spot the whole way around.
10 - Optimizer - 11th in Derby, 6th in Preakness without
much of an excuse. The horse is simply
not fast enough.
11 - I'll Have Another - That was quite simply a huge race
in the Preakness, to run down Bodemeister, who had the lead all to
himself. That put away the naysayers of
his Derby performance, who touted his perfect trip. I love everything about the way they have handled
this horse, the keys in my mind being sending him directly to Pimlico following
the Derby, and then directly to Belmont following the Preakness, allowing him
to get acclimated to the track. He
should be right up near the front with Paynter, thus ensuring a clean trip.
Gutierrez has shown a lot of patience thus far, and now he
must fight the urge to use his horse too soon.
We have seen it time and again in the Belmont, with horses moving too
soon and getting swallowed up late, the most vivid being Spectacular Bid in
1979, Real Quiet in 1999, and Smarty Jones in 2004.
We have also seen horses who have run huge Preaknesses
regress in the Belmont, possibly from the wear and tear of the Triple
Crown. These recent examples include Big
Brown, Smarty Jones and Real Quiet.
12 - My Adonis - A late addition to the fray, and probably
not one that needs to be worried about.
Final analysis: Will
the Triple Crown happen this year? I
have learned to never count on it, as in 2008 Big Brown towered over the field
he faced, and he ran dead last. That
being said, unless chaos happens, there are only 5 horses capable of
winning. IHA, Paynter, Dullahan, Union
Rags (maybe), and I'll give Street Life a very outside chance as well.
All indications say that IHA has handled the campaign
well. His connections have handled it
well and are having fun with it. I think
he will do it. My prediction is that IHA
will enter the stretch in front, just outside of Paynter. Dullahan will be moving towards them, looking
like the winner, and will flatten out in mid-stretch. Union Rags will be coming late, but will also
flatten and finish 5th. Street Life will
come out of nowhere and run by Dullahan and Union Rags, but not threaten the
top 2.
Prediction:
1st - I'll Have Another
1st - I'll Have Another
2nd - Paynter
3rd - Street Life
4th - Dullahan
5th - Union Rags
Thursday, May 17, 2012
2012 Preakness - Betting preview
Here are my initial Preakness thoughts.
1: Tiger Walk - The
outsiders in this race are just that, outsiders. This one finished 4th in the Wood, a race in
which the top finishers performed very poorly in the Derby. Top Beyer of 90 puts him on the edge of
hitting the board, so I will play for 4th, and maybe 3rd on a ticket without
Bodemeister.
2: Teeth of the Dog -
Very lightly raced, so eligible to improve.
But another exiting the Wood Memorial, thus far a very un-key race. His running style prior to the Wood suggests
he would be close to the front, which would compromise his chances. In the Wood he raced off the pace and passed
some horses. Of the outsiders, he's the
one I feel may have the best chance of crashing the party.
3: Pretension - Has a
win over the surface, but that is about all there is to like. Top Beyer of 83 thus far, would have to
greatly improve to even hit the board.
Passing here.
4: Zetterholm - All
of his wins are against NY breds, and at Aqueduct, one of my least favorite tracks. He would also have to take a huge step
forward in his toughest race by far.
Unless he gets some of the famous Dutrow drugs, he is a toss.
5: Went The Day Well
- Was running best late in the Derby, but then again, so was Ice Box in 2010,
and I don't think he's hit the board since then. The question to answer is, did he take a step
forward due to improving, or was it more of a function of a dream pace scenario
to nearly get to the leaders? I'm
inclined to think it was a little of both.
Did the race take much out of him, especially with the troubled
trip? Perhaps, but I am inclined to
believe the connections, Team Valor and Graham Motion would have skipped the
Preakness and waited for the Belmont if there were any fitness questions.
6: Creative Cause - I
definitely like this horse. He ran a
very good 5th in the Derby, covering the most ground in the field. It wasn't the difference in him not winning
the race though, he just ran out of gas in the stretch, despite getting a dream
pace scenario. But I'm not sure I love
the handling of the horse, from the whole blinkers decision, to flying him back
to California after the Derby, then flying back to Maryland this week with a
stop at Churchill....I'm not sure I would be primed for my best performance
come Preakness, and am not sure Creative Cause will be either. I think he is very likely to be 3rd-5th,
though it's not inconceivable for him to win, I think it's unlikely. I think this trail is taking something out of
him, and will be playing him as such.
7: Bodemeister - The
key horse to this race. How do you
handle him on the ticket?
First things first, he is the best horse in this field. His Kentucky Derby was a huge race, running
blistering fractions and nearly hanging on for the win, while running a 99
Beyer. But the best horst doesn't always
win, or even hit the board.
Enough already with the talk about Trinniberg costing
Bodemeister the Derby. Watch the
Derby. Watch it again if you need
to. Bode broke fast, and Mike Smith
seized the lead, which they say was the plan.
Fine, I am ok with that. But why
go so damn fast? Trinniberg was there,
but never was really pressing Bode, never tried to grab the lead, and
Trinniberg showed that he is capable of sub 22 quarters in his previous races. So the question becomes, was it Mike Smith
just not having much pace presence, or did Bode simply want to go that
fast? I'm inclined to believe that
Smith, being a veteran of thousands of races, knows what he was doing, and
therefore Bode just wanted to go that fast.
He is a super fast horse, all of his races show basically
that. He runs on the lead or right with
the lead and carries his speed as far as it can go. US horses are bred for speed. Baffert is a former quarterhorse trainer and
trains speed into his horses. For
California horses, especially with the return to dirt at Santa Anita, speed is
a virtue.
What I am getting at here is despite the absence of apparent
speed in the race, getting an easy lead will be a myth for Bode? Do you honestly expect him to run the opening
quarter of a mile in 24 seconds? The
slowest he has ever went is 23 and 1/5 in the San Felipe. If Smith tries to hold him and throttle him
back, it may adversely affect his chances even more than going fast. So he is going to be out there winging it,
and seeing how far he can carry it.
Now a big question....Is this too much too fast for
him? This is his 5th race in 10
weeks. The Derby had to take something
out of him, despite what the owner and trainer are saying. Plum Pretty, racing for Baffert on Oaks Day,
tried to come back in 3 weeks, made an easy lead, and could only hold 3rd
against a weak field, despite looking like more of a standout than Bode is
here.
So how do I see the race playing out? I think Bode has the lead until the turn, I
expect him to be headed by I'll Have Another there, and then the biggest
questions are, 1) Does he quit?, and 2) Are there enough horses in the field
good enough to pass him down the stretch to make this ticket pay big?
At this point I say that Bode is a great horse, but is he a
monster? Until proven otherwise, I will
choose no here, and try to beat him.
8: Daddy Nose Best -
What happened to this horse in the Derby?
No apparent excuse, and he got a great pace to run at. My initial hunch about the Sunland Derby and
El Camino preps being fraudulent is starting to ring true. He got awesome trips to run at in both of
those races, and posted speed figures that are likely higher than he is capable
of producing in a normal scenario. Therefore,
I am inclined to not believe in him. To
perhaps clinch things for me, my favorite jockey, Julien Leparoux gets the
mount. That being said, I am likely to
play him on the board on a non-Bode ticket especially.
9: I'll Have Another - His Derby trip was so
good, it couldn't have possibly taken as much out of him as it did Bode. He has also beaten Creative Cause, one of the
other big threats his last two races, so it looks like he is just better than
him. He traveled to Maryland immediately
after the Derby, so he should be well acclimated to his surroundings, which is
more than I can say for most of the rest of the field. He will be able to track Bode right from the
gate, should get a great stalking trip, and as long as he came out of the Derby
well he is my pick to win.
10: Optimizer - This horse just isn't very good. His best race was against a weak field in the
Rebel, and still only yielded a 91 Beyer, his best by 8 points. I think his best chance is 4th, again maybe
3rd on a non-Bode ticket.
11: Cozzetti - He ran
4th to Bode in the Arkansas Derby, but was beaten by 10 lengths. Before that he ran 3rd to Perspective in the
Tampa Bay Derby, and he did nothing in the Kentucky Derby. So initially he looks like he should be a
toss. I'll probably play him as high as
3rd on selected tickets, and likely 4th on the rest.
Decisions, decisions:
So now how do we play this race? I'm inclined to take a stand against
Bodemeister, for better or for worse. I
know that he is the best horse in this field, but a few circumstances of the
race lead me to believe that he is more vulnerable than you would expect.
My plan is to wheel around I'll Have Another, with a
secondary key horse being Went the Day Well.
I'll probably be chasing strictly superfecta's, with my tickets framed
likely framed like this:
9 / 5 / 2,6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11 (or potentially all)
9 / 5 / 1 ,10,11 / 2,6,7,8
9 / 6,7,8 / 5 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11
9 / 6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11 / 5
And then wheeling around the 9 in 2nd and 3rd, with the 5
finishing in 1st and 2nd, with potentially the 6,7,8 on top as well.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Kentucky Derby 2012 trip report
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Thursday saw us leave Michigan around 4pm. Al by himself in one car, Erik, Dave and Doug
in Erik's car, and myself and Jim in my car.
We stopped for a bite at Arby's somewhere in Ohio, picked up Mert in
Cincy, and made it to Louisville around 11pm.
After checking into the hotel, this time the Comfort Suites in
Louisville on Paramount Parkway - which we got for a song at a rate of $109 per
night, they were going for $429 per night online a few days before the trip -
we made our way out for what is now the annual trip to Trixies.
After we got there (minus Al, who apparently fell asleep in
his room and missed the festivities), we immediately started on the beer, as
well as shooting pool. The vibe was
pretty dead when we got there, and the "dancers" were about the
same. A few girls were trying to get our
attention, but they were nasty, and we were more interested in our own thing
than what little they had to offer. At
this point Erik discovered the punching bag machine, where your punch strength
is measured. Here is some video of Erik
running across the bar to get a head of steam before punching it. Here is a link in case the embedded video below doesn't work.
Also here is Jim punching said machine. Here is a link in case the embedded video below doesn't work.
Our group must have put $100+ into that machine at $1 a pop
throughout the night, betting more and more money as the night went on. Finally near the end I decided to give it a
go. I figured I would be one of the
weakest ones, but once I saw Dave's piss poor effort, I figured there was no
way I could do worse. It turned out that
I had the second highest score of the night, which was much to the chagrin of
people who were betting against me. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to make much on
myself for whatever reason. Theories
were abound as to how I was able to get the 2nd highest number, with Dan's
theory being that since I am an Engineer, I was able to somehow determine the
optimum angle of attack / trajectory. My
theory is that most of the guys are bigger pussies than they think, while I am
less of a pussy than they think.
We ended up staying until 3am, which as usual makes Oaks day
difficult to handle.
Friday, May 4, 2012 - Oaks Day
We grabbed the usual parking spots at Charlie and Phil's,
had some beers for the road, and made our way to Churchill. The day started off slowly, with a few marginal hits. Sonny hit a few signers, but he was putting a
lot into the races to hit them, so while building a profit, it wasn't as big as
it would have seemed. In the 6th race, 2011 Kentucky Oaks runner
Plum Pretty looked very good on paper, but my friend Erin had a theory that she
was tired, and was vulnerable. I have no
recollection about how I profited from that race, but I am fairly sure I did,
as she ran 3rd behind Juanita and St Johns River.
Then in the 7th race I got something going with a superfecta
that I shared with the Dave and Erik. I
didn't think we had it at first, I think I wheeled on the 21-1 longshot in 1st
and 2nd, and she ran 3rd, but then I realized I did have her for 3rd on one
ticket, and the longest shot on the board ran 4th. I had also started a pick 5 ticket with both
Dave and Erik on this race, where most of the money was focused on the winner
of the 7th race, and singling on Stephanies Kitten in the 8th, who I felt was a
standout in that field. Unfortunately,
because I had opened a pick 5 already, I chose not to open any pick 4 tickets,
since the combinations were duplicated.
The 8th race went as expected with Stephanies Kitten winning by a
comfortable 2 lengths. The 9th race was
a good result, as the 3rd choice, Successful Dan won, which helps the pk5
payout as well. The 10th race was a
difficult race, and my two key horses were the 13 and 14. Because of my pick 5, I chose not to put
money into the race, and was slightly upset to see the race come in 13-10-14,
and pay $14K on the superfecta, and $1300 on the trifecta. But, we were through with the 3rd choice
again in the pick 5. There was also a
long weather delay before the 10th race, where they actually evacuated the
infield and grandstand, so part of the reason I didn't bet the race was because
of uncertainty with (A) whether the race would stay on the turf, and (B) how
the track would be playing following the rain.
The Oaks was closing out the pick 5, and we thought the race
was very wide open. We had 6 possible
horses to win, with some really good payoffs on the longshots. Our hopes were rewarded when Rosie Napravnik
brought in Believe You Can at 14-1 to win the Oaks, getting us one of our best
results, a payout of $1595 for the .50 cent pick 5. It was the first pick 5 that I had ever
hit. As I mentioned before, the pick 4
which I had neglected to play and was easy to hit based on my handicapping, as
I got it AABA, paid $750 on a .50 cent bet.
By the conclusion of Oaks Day, most people were doing well,
with Sonny up over 1K, myself up about 200.
Al was up, and Dave and Erik weren't doing badly either. The only person not doing so well was Doug,
who was the victim of losing some large win bets on prohibitive favorites.
After the Oaks, we went to the Mexican restaurant next to
the hotel. Seeing that the following day
was Cinco de Mayo, it not only seemed appropriate, it seemed prudent since the
following day would likely be very crowded.
I could barely touch my burrito due to the copious amounts of chips and
salsa I consumed prior the burrito delivery.
Sonny ordered the "Burrito gigante", which lived up to its
name. We played credit card roulette for
the bill, which Doug lost. Fortunately
for Doug, he and Jim bought insurance for each other, so they split the
bill.
After the Mexican food, a few of us went out to the
Godfather, a place we have been a time or two.
It was me, Jim, Doug, Sonny and Erin who were the troopers. Not much to add here, as we just had some
beers and shot the shit.
Saturday, May 5, 2012 - Derby day
Derby day started out well.
We got to our normal parking place, and Al actually paid for a guy to
"shuttle" us to the entrance in a golf cart. This would save from the inevitable
"chaf-age" from walking far in the heat. Unfortunately, the golf cart couldn't go all
the way to the main entrance due to the way pedestrian/vehicle traffic was
routed, so it didn't end up saving us much time or effort.
When we got to the track, I kept my betting fairly small for
the most part. Part of the problem was
that the races were difficult, part of it was that I wasn't feeling well, and
part of it was that I was showing a little bit of discipline, since my horse
betting has been pretty bad since last years Derby. So I apologize to anyone who was counting on
any of my handicapping and/or help on the days races. The sad truth is that I likely wouldn't have
been a lot of help.
It appeared to be a sound decision on my part, as nobody in
our group seemed to be doing anything very well, save for Jim, who continued to
be mysterious with his betting for the entire weekend. (He did buy picks from some online
source....I doubt they did very well).
For the weekend then I have absolutely no clue how well he did,
somewhere between winning a grand and losing 2 grand I would say (I told you he
was being mysterious).
It also didn't seem to be a very prudent idea to put much
money into races I had handicapped for 10-20 minutes, in comparison to the
Derby which I had spent 10-20 hours handicapping and thinking about. So I was essentially saving myself for the
Derby.
As expected, we had no shortage of money to put into the
Derby superfecta. Previous years we have
put in 1440, 1500ish, 2000ish, and 2400.
This year our team put together 4K to put into the race, and that was
with Sonny putting in far less than he had invested in previous years, leaving
him only 25% of our tickets. Knowing it
was a tough race, I knew we needed all of the money we could put together.
Everyone in our team agreed to key Gemologist, which
apparently turned out to be very wrong.
But we had difficulty identifying a 2nd horse to key. I liked Bodemeister a lot, but it didn't make
a lot of sense to key on 2 horses who were likely to be near the front of what
we expected to be quick early fractions.
After much debate and discussion, we settled on Union Rags, despite the
linked article where I basically shit on his chances. The reason being that even though he wasn't
likely good enough to win, he appeared to run a decent race every time, and
that race gave him a decent shot at hitting the board. Plus, he was likely to be off of the hot
pace. Here's how we shaped our tickets, and how the investors shook out.
As we tend to say in horse racing, you can't play em' all,
and I'll Have Another was one of the last horses we eliminated from the win
portion of the ticket, and I even went as far as to recommend throwing him
completely off of the ticket. My
reasoning made sense, in that from the 19 hole I expected him to be very forwardly
placed, as that was the running style he had shown in all of his previous
races. Consequently, I expected him to
be hung 4-5 wide on the first turn, while tracking a very hot pace. His jockey, being in his first Kentucky Derby
and relatively inexperienced, would not be capable of calming himself down, or
his horse, and would burn his energy out very early. Essentially I'll Have Another got the trip that I was thinking/hoping that Gemologist would get.
What happened in reality was that I'll Have Another was able
to get him into a great position entering the first turn about two spots out
from the rail, and in an area where he was almost all by himself, with no
traffic around him. This was the key to
the victory in my opinion. In almost
every Derby, the winner finds himself in a great spot on the first turn, and
encounters very little traffic the whole way.
Mike Smith on the other hand, I'm not sure what he was doing
all Derby day....first he moves WAY too soon on Amazombie, basically heading
Shackleford on the turn. Shackleford is
as game as they come, and you don't want to run neck and neck with him for over
1/4 of a mile, especially when the distance is more of a question for your
horse than his. Then in the Derby, he
immediately seizes the lead from the start on Bodemeister, which apparently was
the plan of Bob Baffert all along. This
part I have no problem with, but the part I do have a problem with is them
blaming Trinniberg for the hot pace.
Trinniberg was up close, but it didn't appear to me that he at any time
tried to get the lead from Bodemeister.
Smith just didn't harness enough of his speed to last, and consequently
ran through lightening fast fractions, and ran a HUGE race to nearly hold
on.
So as I said before, I take the blame for leaving the winner
off of our tickets, but since our key horses both missed the board, it wasn't
to be. I will take the credit for
predicting Rags poor run and bad trip in my previous write-up. It appears Julien Leparoux will lose the
mount on him, after failing to follow instructions, and even going as far as
suggesting that he heard a pop on Rags on the turn, yet still riding him to a
closing 7th place finish. What's the
deal Julien? If he was hurt, why
continue riding him? Just admit that you
gave him yet another bad ride, and that you are afraid of sticking a horse in a
tight spot Calvin Borel style.
As an aside, I read an article on the Derby the other day
that bears mentioning. The article
basically suggested that unless you have top end speed (like Bodemeister), the
outside/auxiliary gate is where you not only want to be, but NEED to be. This means posts 15-20. The likelihood of you getting a cleaner trip
far outweigh any ground you are going to lose.
This is a point that I definitely already knew, however the top end speed
thing is something I hadn't thought of but makes sense. I will not let drawing an outside post
position affect me one iota, unless they are a horse I expect on the lead.
Basically the entire group got whitewashed on the Derby, save
for Erin hitting a small win bet on the winner.
I hit a win bet in one of the last 2 races, but basically ended up down
about a grand on Derby day, with basically all of it coming on the Derby
itself.
Following the Derby, we decided to hit the Chinese
buffet. I suggested this was a bad
intestinal idea (as Dan will affirm to, since he spent 30+ minutes in the
community bathroom in the hotel). What
was another bad idea was the credit card roulette, which saw me losing and
footing the $150 bill. I have probably
lost 3 of my last 6 times at CCR, and decided that credit card will be retired
from the battle, and I proceeded to use another on at breakfast the next
morning.
After dinner, a few of us (Me, Dave, Erik, Jim, Sonny and
Doug) went back to Trixies. We managed
to get Jim and Dave a nice motorboat,
and Sonny broke our groups record at the punching bag machine. I neglected to try, as I didn't think I could
beat Sonny's mark, and also didn't want to hurt my hand anymore than it already
did (from an errant shot two nights before).
The aftermath
Overall a very fun trip, despite ending in financial
disappointment for all. Hopefully I'm
able to apply some of the lessons learned from this year's Derby into next
years Derby.
My next effort at credit card roulette, using a different credit card at the Waffle House nearby the hotel, was successful, as Erik was the victim.
Lessons learned
As I mentioned before. We've seen it countless times. The auxiliary gate is the place to be. It's not good, but the inside is "less good".
For god's sake, when there is a horse with standout speed figures, ala Bodemeister, make that horse one of your key horses.
Just because you have Pick 5 tickets live, doesn't mean you can't play Pick 4, especially when you have a few strong opinions upcoming. That decision likely cost me at least $750.
Thursday, May 03, 2012
Final 2012 Kentucky Derby preview
Here is the final Kentucky Derby field, with my prediction at the end of this. Recall that last year I pegged the exacta in reverse order, and on track hit the trifecta and superfecta (as a team on the last bet).
1 - Daddy Long Legs - I didn't want to use him before, and him drawing the rail assures it. Until proven otherwise, Aidan O'Brien does not know how to win the Kentucky Derby.
2 - Optimizer - Basically an outsider in this group. I can play him for 4th....maybe.....and even then I don't feel very good about it.
3 - Take Charge Indy -Definitely a tough one to figure. Borel will get the rail as long as he wants it.
4 - Union Rags - Everybody in my Derby group is falling into the same trap, expecting him to take a step forward despite no evidence that he can, and paying a terrible price to boot. Does he have the talent? I don't know, but you are paying 9-2, near favoritism for the POSSIBILITY.
5 - Dullahan - He probably would have rather drawn a bit further outside, but I don't think it's a big deal. I'm inclined to say he's much more likely in 5th-8th place, than 1st-4th.
6 - Bodemeister - I think it's a very good draw. The question is can Smith get him to settle at the right pace to be able to carry his speed. It may all depend on how fast Trinniberg goes.
7 - Rousing Sermon - Outsider closer that may have a chance for 4th.
8 - Creative Cause - Most of my group is souring on him. I'm not sure that I have yet. Yes, he has hung a bit in the stretch, but he beat Bodemeister once.
9 - Trinniberg - He's a speedster, and I think he will lead for about 7/8 of a mile, and then fade. I'll be wheeling him in 19th and 20th place on all tickets.
10 - Daddy Nose Best - My daughters pick, but I think she is biased. I think he would need a perfect setup and trip to win, don't think he will get it.
11 - Alpha - Everything seems to be shaping up well for him. Good draw, training up well, added distance. Big threat.
12 - Prospective - Hard to see better than 4th for this outsider.
13 - Went The Day Well - I think he will be overrated based on the Animal Kingdom comparisons, but the simple fact is that despite his running style, he is not well suited for this distance. I'm inclined to toss him.
14 - Hansen - Is game, but I just don't think he will want the distance. 3rd at best, but I think he fades to 7th or 8th.
15 - Gemologist - He drew perfectly, and is a huge threat to win.
16 - El Padrino - Not a bad draw for him either. An outside threat at the win.
17 - Done Talking - The less time I talk about him, the better off I am.
18 - Sabercat - Another outsider that could maybe crash the party if the pace collapses. Thinking no though.
19 - I'll Have Another - I don't think he is as good as some of the others here, so I am inclined to pass.
20 - Liaison - He has Baffert and bad form. I pass.
21AE - My Adonis - Maybe he could crash the party also if the pace totally collapses, and that's even if he gets in the field. I will pass.
Now, the big moment....the prediction....in what is maybe the most difficult Kentucky Derby I have ever handicapped.
1st - Alpha
2nd - Bodemeister
3rd - Gemologist
4th - Take Charge Indy
1 - Daddy Long Legs - I didn't want to use him before, and him drawing the rail assures it. Until proven otherwise, Aidan O'Brien does not know how to win the Kentucky Derby.
2 - Optimizer - Basically an outsider in this group. I can play him for 4th....maybe.....and even then I don't feel very good about it.
3 - Take Charge Indy -Definitely a tough one to figure. Borel will get the rail as long as he wants it.
4 - Union Rags - Everybody in my Derby group is falling into the same trap, expecting him to take a step forward despite no evidence that he can, and paying a terrible price to boot. Does he have the talent? I don't know, but you are paying 9-2, near favoritism for the POSSIBILITY.
5 - Dullahan - He probably would have rather drawn a bit further outside, but I don't think it's a big deal. I'm inclined to say he's much more likely in 5th-8th place, than 1st-4th.
6 - Bodemeister - I think it's a very good draw. The question is can Smith get him to settle at the right pace to be able to carry his speed. It may all depend on how fast Trinniberg goes.
7 - Rousing Sermon - Outsider closer that may have a chance for 4th.
8 - Creative Cause - Most of my group is souring on him. I'm not sure that I have yet. Yes, he has hung a bit in the stretch, but he beat Bodemeister once.
9 - Trinniberg - He's a speedster, and I think he will lead for about 7/8 of a mile, and then fade. I'll be wheeling him in 19th and 20th place on all tickets.
10 - Daddy Nose Best - My daughters pick, but I think she is biased. I think he would need a perfect setup and trip to win, don't think he will get it.
11 - Alpha - Everything seems to be shaping up well for him. Good draw, training up well, added distance. Big threat.
12 - Prospective - Hard to see better than 4th for this outsider.
13 - Went The Day Well - I think he will be overrated based on the Animal Kingdom comparisons, but the simple fact is that despite his running style, he is not well suited for this distance. I'm inclined to toss him.
14 - Hansen - Is game, but I just don't think he will want the distance. 3rd at best, but I think he fades to 7th or 8th.
15 - Gemologist - He drew perfectly, and is a huge threat to win.
16 - El Padrino - Not a bad draw for him either. An outside threat at the win.
17 - Done Talking - The less time I talk about him, the better off I am.
18 - Sabercat - Another outsider that could maybe crash the party if the pace collapses. Thinking no though.
19 - I'll Have Another - I don't think he is as good as some of the others here, so I am inclined to pass.
20 - Liaison - He has Baffert and bad form. I pass.
21AE - My Adonis - Maybe he could crash the party also if the pace totally collapses, and that's even if he gets in the field. I will pass.
Now, the big moment....the prediction....in what is maybe the most difficult Kentucky Derby I have ever handicapped.
1st - Alpha
2nd - Bodemeister
3rd - Gemologist
4th - Take Charge Indy
Tuesday, May 01, 2012
El Padrino - 2012 Kentucky Derby preview
This is another one I just have no clue how to deal with.
The Good:
1) One of only 4 horses who has a triple digit Beyer speed figure, a 100 in a non-winners of 1 race at Gulfstream, on a "good" track, a race in which he beat Take Charge Indy.
2) His Risen Star race got a 98 Beyer at Fairgrounds. Combine that with a win at Belmont, and he has won on 3 different tracks.
3) There is stamina in his bloodlines, with both AP Indy and Giants Causeway as "grandparents".
4) His stalking style is almost a perfect fit for the Derby.
5) Pletcher....despite the Derby record one of the best in the business.
The Bad:
1) Horses out of Pulpit in general haven't seemed to get the Derby distance. Pulpit himself faded in the last eighth of a mile. El Padrino has seemed to flatten out a bit in the end of his races.
2) Both of his starts at 1 and 1/16 miles were revelations, then he regressed in the Florida Derby. A closer look at that race though may provide a reason for the struggle. He raced wide most of the way, and in watching that race, it seemed jockey JJ Castellano was more interested in keeping Union Rags in tight along the rail, then he was in racing his own horse. You can bet that Rafael Bejarano will not make that mistake in the Derby. Because of that, I argue that you could almost completely discount this race from his record.
3) 2 of his 3 wins were on an off track. It can definitely be argued that his chances increase if the going is wet.
Betting strategy:
Is he going to be overlooked? I'm not sure. His speed figures fit, his running style fits, he has one of the best trainers and a good jock. He also shares my birthday, which probably can't be a bad thing. I think he will go off around 12-1 or so, and I think that's a pretty good price on him.
So in the 30-45 minutes that I just spent devouring his past performances and race history, I believe I have talked myself into including him on most of my tickets, and believe he has a legitimate shot at winning.
The Good:
1) One of only 4 horses who has a triple digit Beyer speed figure, a 100 in a non-winners of 1 race at Gulfstream, on a "good" track, a race in which he beat Take Charge Indy.
2) His Risen Star race got a 98 Beyer at Fairgrounds. Combine that with a win at Belmont, and he has won on 3 different tracks.
3) There is stamina in his bloodlines, with both AP Indy and Giants Causeway as "grandparents".
4) His stalking style is almost a perfect fit for the Derby.
5) Pletcher....despite the Derby record one of the best in the business.
The Bad:
1) Horses out of Pulpit in general haven't seemed to get the Derby distance. Pulpit himself faded in the last eighth of a mile. El Padrino has seemed to flatten out a bit in the end of his races.
2) Both of his starts at 1 and 1/16 miles were revelations, then he regressed in the Florida Derby. A closer look at that race though may provide a reason for the struggle. He raced wide most of the way, and in watching that race, it seemed jockey JJ Castellano was more interested in keeping Union Rags in tight along the rail, then he was in racing his own horse. You can bet that Rafael Bejarano will not make that mistake in the Derby. Because of that, I argue that you could almost completely discount this race from his record.
3) 2 of his 3 wins were on an off track. It can definitely be argued that his chances increase if the going is wet.
Betting strategy:
Is he going to be overlooked? I'm not sure. His speed figures fit, his running style fits, he has one of the best trainers and a good jock. He also shares my birthday, which probably can't be a bad thing. I think he will go off around 12-1 or so, and I think that's a pretty good price on him.
So in the 30-45 minutes that I just spent devouring his past performances and race history, I believe I have talked myself into including him on most of my tickets, and believe he has a legitimate shot at winning.
Daddy Nose Best - 2012 Kentucky Derby preview
The horses I'm doing near the end are clearly the ones that I have the least informed opinion of, outside of the outsiders that I don't plan on dedicating a single post to. Daddy Nose Best is one of those horses that I have really been wrestling with in my mind.
The good:
1. He is one of only 4 horses with a triple digit Beyer in the field, which will be required to win this race.
2. He has twice won at a distance of a mile and an eighth.
3. This is his third race of the year, which is again typically a big effort in the form cycle.
4. His running style suggests he will be a deep closer in this field, which figures to be good for him as it looks like a hot pace for this year.
5. He has won on all 3 surfaces, which suggests that he shouldn't have a problem with the track.
6. All reports indicate that he is training up really well.
The bad:
1. I believe he was the beneficiary of an absolutely PERFECT trip in the Sunland Derby, and think that speed figure may not be attainable under conditions any more adverse than what he received there.
2. His ability to get the distance is a question mark. His sire, Scat Daddy won the Florida Derby at a mile and an eighth, but Scat Daddy ran 18th in the Derby.
3. While his win was impressive in the Sunland Derby, it didn't appear that he was relishing the last eighth of a mile, which makes me question how much he wants another furlong. But, the time for that final quarter mile was 12 and change, which wasn't all that bad.
4. The first two starts of his career were at Churchill, with one being a decent 2nd in a MSW, and the other one being a badly beaten 7th in another MSW.
5. His running style, while it may be flattered by the Derby pace, will likely require him to travel very wide, or weave through traffic.
Betting strategy:
I'm thinking he's going to go off at 18-1 or so, which is a great price based on his last race Beyer. He is getting largely overlooked due to the quality in this field. He should definitely get a good pace to run at, and is one of the few in this field who you would expect to be running late. I can't use him as a key horse, but I can certainly use him on my tickets, perhaps even as high as the win.
The good:
1. He is one of only 4 horses with a triple digit Beyer in the field, which will be required to win this race.
2. He has twice won at a distance of a mile and an eighth.
3. This is his third race of the year, which is again typically a big effort in the form cycle.
4. His running style suggests he will be a deep closer in this field, which figures to be good for him as it looks like a hot pace for this year.
5. He has won on all 3 surfaces, which suggests that he shouldn't have a problem with the track.
6. All reports indicate that he is training up really well.
The bad:
1. I believe he was the beneficiary of an absolutely PERFECT trip in the Sunland Derby, and think that speed figure may not be attainable under conditions any more adverse than what he received there.
2. His ability to get the distance is a question mark. His sire, Scat Daddy won the Florida Derby at a mile and an eighth, but Scat Daddy ran 18th in the Derby.
3. While his win was impressive in the Sunland Derby, it didn't appear that he was relishing the last eighth of a mile, which makes me question how much he wants another furlong. But, the time for that final quarter mile was 12 and change, which wasn't all that bad.
4. The first two starts of his career were at Churchill, with one being a decent 2nd in a MSW, and the other one being a badly beaten 7th in another MSW.
5. His running style, while it may be flattered by the Derby pace, will likely require him to travel very wide, or weave through traffic.
Betting strategy:
I'm thinking he's going to go off at 18-1 or so, which is a great price based on his last race Beyer. He is getting largely overlooked due to the quality in this field. He should definitely get a good pace to run at, and is one of the few in this field who you would expect to be running late. I can't use him as a key horse, but I can certainly use him on my tickets, perhaps even as high as the win.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Take Charge Indy - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Take Charge Indy is a horse that I have been intrigued in from the start, primarily due to his breeding. I even have a future bet on him to win the Derby at something like 40-1. Let's examine further.
The good:
1) Start with the most obvious, the breeding. He is out of AP Indy, who is by Seattle Slew. That's a ton of classic victories. AP Indy won the Belmont and the Breeders Cup Classic. Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. His Dam, Take Charge Lady ran 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks, and won 9 stakes races, going as far as 1 and 1/16 miles. Stamina is not an issue with this one.
2) He has taken a step forward as a 3 year old, and this is his 3rd race in his form cycle. His high Beyer of 96 is a little light, and definitely shy of where he needs to be. But the curious thing about his Florida Derby (95) race was it earned a 104 Bris figure, which is right on par with Bodemeister's big effort in the Arkansas Derby. A similar case can be made for his race prior to the Florida Derby, where his Beyer was low (96), but his Bris figure was through the roof at 109. This leads me to believe that something is going on with Gulfstream Park Beyers and Bris speed figures that require those races to be looked at a little bit more closely. (The same goes for Union Rags as well)
3) His rider is Calvin Borel, who has won 3 derbies in 5 years. Churchill is his home track. Nobody, and I mean nobody knows that track as well as he does, and I am counting on him being able to judge pace better than any other rider.
4) He seems to be very versatile, as he has gained ground and passed horses in the stretch (all in his 2 year old campaign), and also raced well while on the lead.
The bad:
1) His Florida Derby win has been discounted as he was able to set leisurely fractions, which is true. Union Rags also got boxed in and was given a poor ride, which compromised his chances. He will not get that free run on the lead.
2) The aforementioned Beyer figures definitely need to improve from where they are at now. Again, part of this I question due to the difference between Beyers and Bris at Gulfstream, but strictly based on Beyers, he needs to take a step forward.
3) While his best races have happened this year, they also have happened either on the lead or very close to the lead. Running with that style could potentially negatively effect his chances.
4) He raced at Churchill Downs once, in the Juvenile. It was not necessarily a bad race, but not a good race either. He got an 83 beyer, in what was his first race on dirt, finishing 5th in a tough field. This can in part be explained by the fact that he was doing something for the first time. Each of his subsequent races have been on dirt.
Betting strategy:
He's going to be probably 12-1 to 15-1, and he may be longer than that in the exotics pools since Borel will certainly drive his win price down. I can't help but think he is WAY underrated, as he is getting almost no press, as people are downplaying his Florida Derby win, and overplaying a lot of his rivals. I believe that he can run forever, and the only question is can he take a step forward off of his last two Gulfstream races, although as I mentioned earlier, those Beyer figures are questionable to me.
I will certainly have him on all of my tickets, and likely lobby to have him on all of the super tickets as well. I'm not sure we can use him as key horse, but I think that is likely to be due to my other ticket investors, and not through any knock against him.
The good:
1) Start with the most obvious, the breeding. He is out of AP Indy, who is by Seattle Slew. That's a ton of classic victories. AP Indy won the Belmont and the Breeders Cup Classic. Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. His Dam, Take Charge Lady ran 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks, and won 9 stakes races, going as far as 1 and 1/16 miles. Stamina is not an issue with this one.
2) He has taken a step forward as a 3 year old, and this is his 3rd race in his form cycle. His high Beyer of 96 is a little light, and definitely shy of where he needs to be. But the curious thing about his Florida Derby (95) race was it earned a 104 Bris figure, which is right on par with Bodemeister's big effort in the Arkansas Derby. A similar case can be made for his race prior to the Florida Derby, where his Beyer was low (96), but his Bris figure was through the roof at 109. This leads me to believe that something is going on with Gulfstream Park Beyers and Bris speed figures that require those races to be looked at a little bit more closely. (The same goes for Union Rags as well)
3) His rider is Calvin Borel, who has won 3 derbies in 5 years. Churchill is his home track. Nobody, and I mean nobody knows that track as well as he does, and I am counting on him being able to judge pace better than any other rider.
4) He seems to be very versatile, as he has gained ground and passed horses in the stretch (all in his 2 year old campaign), and also raced well while on the lead.
The bad:
1) His Florida Derby win has been discounted as he was able to set leisurely fractions, which is true. Union Rags also got boxed in and was given a poor ride, which compromised his chances. He will not get that free run on the lead.
2) The aforementioned Beyer figures definitely need to improve from where they are at now. Again, part of this I question due to the difference between Beyers and Bris at Gulfstream, but strictly based on Beyers, he needs to take a step forward.
3) While his best races have happened this year, they also have happened either on the lead or very close to the lead. Running with that style could potentially negatively effect his chances.
4) He raced at Churchill Downs once, in the Juvenile. It was not necessarily a bad race, but not a good race either. He got an 83 beyer, in what was his first race on dirt, finishing 5th in a tough field. This can in part be explained by the fact that he was doing something for the first time. Each of his subsequent races have been on dirt.
Betting strategy:
He's going to be probably 12-1 to 15-1, and he may be longer than that in the exotics pools since Borel will certainly drive his win price down. I can't help but think he is WAY underrated, as he is getting almost no press, as people are downplaying his Florida Derby win, and overplaying a lot of his rivals. I believe that he can run forever, and the only question is can he take a step forward off of his last two Gulfstream races, although as I mentioned earlier, those Beyer figures are questionable to me.
I will certainly have him on all of my tickets, and likely lobby to have him on all of the super tickets as well. I'm not sure we can use him as key horse, but I think that is likely to be due to my other ticket investors, and not through any knock against him.
I'll Have Another - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
I'll Have Another is a horse that has given me a lot of difficulty as far as handicapping. I'm not sure that I can pinpoint the exact reasons why, but I have really struggled with him.
The good:
1) He is 2 for 2 this year, winning a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 at Santa Anita.
2) His speed figures for the year are decent, 96 and 94 in his two starts, and this being his 3rd race of the year he is definitely eligible to improve.
3) His sire Flower Alley, didn't make the Derby distance when he raced in it, but he did follow up by winning the Travers and finished 2nd in the Breeders Cup, so the distance shouldn't be a problem.
4) His win over Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby was very game, although there is the question as to whether or not Creative Cause was wound very tightly for that start.
5) His running style should ensure that he gets a good trip.
The bad:
1) His only race outside of California was a dismal performance in the Hopeful Stakes. It's possible it was the sloppy track that was the reason for his performance. But I am always skeptical of horses who throw their best few races on a specific track, especially when that track is not Churchill Downs.
2) His aforementioned Beyer Speed figures are a little on the low side, with a 96 being his highest. He will have to step forward off of that. The fact that he didn't improve in going an extra 1/16 of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby is also concerning.
3) In general, Flower Alley has been an average sire to this point.
4) The Santa Anita Derby hasn't produced much in the Kentucky Derby lately, though the recent switch to dirt last year definitely increases it's relevance. Last years Santa Anita Derby winner, Midnight Interlude raced poorly on Derby day.
5) The running style previously mentioned as a plus, scares me slightly in that he may be a little too close to a hot, contested early pace. In the Derby that Flower Alley ran in, he pressed the pace in 2nd but gave way after about 3/4 of a mile.
Betting strategy:
He's likely to be in the 10-1 to 15-1 range, as despite being the Santa Anita Derby winner, he isn't getting a lot of attention. I think that's right around where he should be, considering his 96 top Beyer, and the questions I have.
My hopes were that after writing this up, some of my questions in my head would be resolved, but unfortunately that's not the case. I would be surprised if he won, but not shocked. My inclination is to leave him off of my personal smaller money tickets, but I believe we will use him in the Superfecta tickets, as it makes sense from a value perspective, likely even as a potential winner on some of the key tickets.
The good:
1) He is 2 for 2 this year, winning a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 at Santa Anita.
2) His speed figures for the year are decent, 96 and 94 in his two starts, and this being his 3rd race of the year he is definitely eligible to improve.
3) His sire Flower Alley, didn't make the Derby distance when he raced in it, but he did follow up by winning the Travers and finished 2nd in the Breeders Cup, so the distance shouldn't be a problem.
4) His win over Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby was very game, although there is the question as to whether or not Creative Cause was wound very tightly for that start.
5) His running style should ensure that he gets a good trip.
The bad:
1) His only race outside of California was a dismal performance in the Hopeful Stakes. It's possible it was the sloppy track that was the reason for his performance. But I am always skeptical of horses who throw their best few races on a specific track, especially when that track is not Churchill Downs.
2) His aforementioned Beyer Speed figures are a little on the low side, with a 96 being his highest. He will have to step forward off of that. The fact that he didn't improve in going an extra 1/16 of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby is also concerning.
3) In general, Flower Alley has been an average sire to this point.
4) The Santa Anita Derby hasn't produced much in the Kentucky Derby lately, though the recent switch to dirt last year definitely increases it's relevance. Last years Santa Anita Derby winner, Midnight Interlude raced poorly on Derby day.
5) The running style previously mentioned as a plus, scares me slightly in that he may be a little too close to a hot, contested early pace. In the Derby that Flower Alley ran in, he pressed the pace in 2nd but gave way after about 3/4 of a mile.
Betting strategy:
He's likely to be in the 10-1 to 15-1 range, as despite being the Santa Anita Derby winner, he isn't getting a lot of attention. I think that's right around where he should be, considering his 96 top Beyer, and the questions I have.
My hopes were that after writing this up, some of my questions in my head would be resolved, but unfortunately that's not the case. I would be surprised if he won, but not shocked. My inclination is to leave him off of my personal smaller money tickets, but I believe we will use him in the Superfecta tickets, as it makes sense from a value perspective, likely even as a potential winner on some of the key tickets.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Alpha - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Alpha is one of the more curious horses in this years projected Kentucky Derby field. There are a lot of things to like, things to not like, and some questions that I would have liked answered in the prep races that unfortunately still linger.
The good:
1) His top Beyer speed figure of 98 stacks up pretty well with the rest of the field, outside of Bodemeister. Sure, he will have to take a step forward to win, but that goes for almost every horse in the field.
2) His running style is prefect for the race, with his ideal spot probably 4th-7th down the backstretch, making a move on the turn.
3) His sire is Bernardini, out of AP Indy. His best race also came in his longest race, indicating he may get better with distance. The Derby distance shouldn't be a problem at all.
4) His top figure, in the Wood Memorial, he nearly passed Gemologist, despite getting a very troubled trip, and sustaining a cut on his leg.
The bad:
1) First, the obvious, his worst race by far came at Churchill Downs in the Juvenile, where he was a badly beaten 11th. He was fractious in the gate, so you could maybe discount this performance, but it's still there for all to see.
2) Despite running well at 3 of the 4 tracks he has been on, all dirt, none of them have been outside of New York. I am particularly suspicious of horses whose top figures have come at Aqueduct, as through personal experience they seem unlikely to repeat elsewhere.
3) The aforementioned cut/injury kept him out of training for a few days. He just had a sharp workout at Belmont Park which seems to indicate that he is healed, but you never want an interruption in training to coincide with your preparation for the biggest and most demanding race of his life.
4) Despite having a good run at Gemologist, he was never able to get by him. Was that a product of Gemologist heart, or an indictment against Alpha.
5) It's something I have noticed, and my friend Erin also brought it up to me. Bernardini colts seem to develop a bit later than other horses. Stay Thirsty last year comes to mind.
Betting strategy:
He is going to be a nice price in the Derby, potentially around 15-1, which is phenomenal considering his speed figures are comparable to horses that are expected to fall around the 5-1 to 8-1 range. He isn't being ignored, but in this Derby field there are a lot of other horses to take money in this field.
He should be able to manufacture a good trip, and be in good striking position when turning for home. The only real question is whether or not he is good enough to win.
My plan is to likely include Alpha on all of my tickets, likely in all of the spots, including the win. I have a few too many questions to use him as a key horse, but he would definitely not surprise me to see him crack the superfecta.
The good:
1) His top Beyer speed figure of 98 stacks up pretty well with the rest of the field, outside of Bodemeister. Sure, he will have to take a step forward to win, but that goes for almost every horse in the field.
2) His running style is prefect for the race, with his ideal spot probably 4th-7th down the backstretch, making a move on the turn.
3) His sire is Bernardini, out of AP Indy. His best race also came in his longest race, indicating he may get better with distance. The Derby distance shouldn't be a problem at all.
4) His top figure, in the Wood Memorial, he nearly passed Gemologist, despite getting a very troubled trip, and sustaining a cut on his leg.
The bad:
1) First, the obvious, his worst race by far came at Churchill Downs in the Juvenile, where he was a badly beaten 11th. He was fractious in the gate, so you could maybe discount this performance, but it's still there for all to see.
2) Despite running well at 3 of the 4 tracks he has been on, all dirt, none of them have been outside of New York. I am particularly suspicious of horses whose top figures have come at Aqueduct, as through personal experience they seem unlikely to repeat elsewhere.
3) The aforementioned cut/injury kept him out of training for a few days. He just had a sharp workout at Belmont Park which seems to indicate that he is healed, but you never want an interruption in training to coincide with your preparation for the biggest and most demanding race of his life.
4) Despite having a good run at Gemologist, he was never able to get by him. Was that a product of Gemologist heart, or an indictment against Alpha.
5) It's something I have noticed, and my friend Erin also brought it up to me. Bernardini colts seem to develop a bit later than other horses. Stay Thirsty last year comes to mind.
Betting strategy:
He is going to be a nice price in the Derby, potentially around 15-1, which is phenomenal considering his speed figures are comparable to horses that are expected to fall around the 5-1 to 8-1 range. He isn't being ignored, but in this Derby field there are a lot of other horses to take money in this field.
He should be able to manufacture a good trip, and be in good striking position when turning for home. The only real question is whether or not he is good enough to win.
My plan is to likely include Alpha on all of my tickets, likely in all of the spots, including the win. I have a few too many questions to use him as a key horse, but he would definitely not surprise me to see him crack the superfecta.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Hansen - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Hansen is probably the most accomplished horse in this field, and yet I find him one of the more difficult to handicap for this Derby because I have a lot of questions about him and how the race will play out.
The good -
1. He's won 4 of 6 starts, with 2 seconds the times he didn't win.
2. He won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill in November, beating many of the horses that are racing again in the Derby.
3. He appears to be very game, as he dug in when headed in the Juvenile.
4. He's very consistent, last 4 Beyers 96, 95, 96, 94.
5. He's almost white as snow. You will always know where he's at in the field, regardless of saddlecloth color.
The bad -
1. He sure doesn't look like a horse that wants any more distance than he has already traveled. His longest race, the Blue Grass at a mile and an eighth, he was caught in the stretch. In the Juvenile at 1 and 1/16 miles, he was nearly caught, barely holding off a few challengers. Tapit colts, like Pulpit colts, seem to be better around a mile to 1 and 1/16.
2. His running style is not the most conducive to winning the Derby. He has been in front at nearly every call of his races except for the Gotham, where he stalked the pace in 2nd and ran a big race. That was a new dimension that I expected to see in the Blue Grass, so either it was bad race riding by Dominguez, or the horse really wanted the lead (I'm inclined to believe this is the case). In any case, wanting the lead in this Derby is not a good idea.
3. His consistent speed figures that I alluded to, while nice, are not high enough to win the Derby. He had a 94 in the Juvenile last year, and has now raced 3 times this year, with all between 95-96. That seems like a horse that has topped out, and isn't going to make a huge jump the first Saturday in May, especially considering that his chances are likely to be compromised by the added distance and pace setup.
Betting strategy -
He's probably going to be around 10-1 or so, which is a great price considering he's the 2 year old champion, and he's in good form this year as well. That being said, that form doesn't look like it's good enough to be the best on Derby day. On top of that, his running style and pedigree suggests he will be moving backwards at the wire rather than forward. Unless the track is very speed favoring, or some of the early speed defects from the race, I am inclined to avoid him entirely on my tickets. For superfecta strategy, I am inclined to play him as high as 3rd on a few backup style tickets, maybe 4th on a main ticket, but off the board on the primary tickets.
The good -
1. He's won 4 of 6 starts, with 2 seconds the times he didn't win.
2. He won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill in November, beating many of the horses that are racing again in the Derby.
3. He appears to be very game, as he dug in when headed in the Juvenile.
4. He's very consistent, last 4 Beyers 96, 95, 96, 94.
5. He's almost white as snow. You will always know where he's at in the field, regardless of saddlecloth color.
The bad -
1. He sure doesn't look like a horse that wants any more distance than he has already traveled. His longest race, the Blue Grass at a mile and an eighth, he was caught in the stretch. In the Juvenile at 1 and 1/16 miles, he was nearly caught, barely holding off a few challengers. Tapit colts, like Pulpit colts, seem to be better around a mile to 1 and 1/16.
2. His running style is not the most conducive to winning the Derby. He has been in front at nearly every call of his races except for the Gotham, where he stalked the pace in 2nd and ran a big race. That was a new dimension that I expected to see in the Blue Grass, so either it was bad race riding by Dominguez, or the horse really wanted the lead (I'm inclined to believe this is the case). In any case, wanting the lead in this Derby is not a good idea.
3. His consistent speed figures that I alluded to, while nice, are not high enough to win the Derby. He had a 94 in the Juvenile last year, and has now raced 3 times this year, with all between 95-96. That seems like a horse that has topped out, and isn't going to make a huge jump the first Saturday in May, especially considering that his chances are likely to be compromised by the added distance and pace setup.
Betting strategy -
He's probably going to be around 10-1 or so, which is a great price considering he's the 2 year old champion, and he's in good form this year as well. That being said, that form doesn't look like it's good enough to be the best on Derby day. On top of that, his running style and pedigree suggests he will be moving backwards at the wire rather than forward. Unless the track is very speed favoring, or some of the early speed defects from the race, I am inclined to avoid him entirely on my tickets. For superfecta strategy, I am inclined to play him as high as 3rd on a few backup style tickets, maybe 4th on a main ticket, but off the board on the primary tickets.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Bodemeister - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview
Just two weeks ago there was debate as to whether or not Bodemeister would even make the Derby field, as he needed a win or a 2nd place in the Arkansas Derby to secure his spot in the field. A 9 length victory and a 108 Beyer later and he is the presumed favorite (at least presumed by me).
The good -
1) He has the highest last race Beyer in the field, at 108. And he has 3 triple digit Beyers, whereas nobody else in the field even has 2.
2) He passes the eye test. As Sonny said, he "looks" fast.
3) His sire is Empire Maker, who won the Belmont, and ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, so despite the appearance that he portrays as a speed horse, he has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree.
4) Trained by Bob Baffert....as said in the Secret Circle post, he knows how to win Derbies.
5) He showed an ability to rate from just off the pace in the San Felipe, a race that he took the lead in the stretch, ran greenly, and was outfinished by Creative Cause. While finishing 2nd was disappointing, it shows a different dimension, that may be required to win the Derby.
6) The Arkansas Derby was won at Oaklawn Park, a surface that many consider to be very similar to Churchill Downs.
7) He is ridden by Mike Smith, who is widely considered the top jock around.
The bad - Not a lot of bad here, the stuff below is reaching.
1) Never raced as a 2 year old. Yes, this is a trend that he is bucking, as no horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 in like forever. Personally I feel it is meaningless, as he raced on January 16th, had it been 17 days earlier this point would have been moot.
2) Only 4 lifetime races. Similar to Gemologist, he is very lightly raced. He showed that lack of experience in the stretch of the San Felipe, when he weaved in and out in the stretch. Looked much more professional in the Arkansas Derby though.
3) His running style is what many will point to as a hang-up, and part of me wants to agree. The pace will likely be hot with the addition of Trinniberg to the field, and winning the Derby on the front end is an extremely difficult task, unless you are allowed to get away with moderate fractions. The hope for his backers is that Smith will be able to settle him in a good spot behind Trinniberg, and wait for him to inevitably stop. The key will be for Smith to judge the pace keenly and keep him in a striking position while not burning him up early.
Betting strategy - I think he will be the favorite. Top last race Beyer,. 3 triple digit Beyers, Bob Baffert, etc....probably somewhere around 4-1. I will likely use him everywhere on my tickets, but I don't forsee myself using him as a key horse, just due to the risk of him blowing himself out in a speed duel. If this race was devoid of early speed, I would have no problem keying on him, but that's not the case at this point. He looks to be the best horse in the field, but the best horse rarely wins the Derby. I expect him to throw a strong race, and am anxious to see if Gemologist, Creative Cause, Union Rags, Dullahan, or someone else can run him down.
The good -
1) He has the highest last race Beyer in the field, at 108. And he has 3 triple digit Beyers, whereas nobody else in the field even has 2.
2) He passes the eye test. As Sonny said, he "looks" fast.
3) His sire is Empire Maker, who won the Belmont, and ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, so despite the appearance that he portrays as a speed horse, he has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree.
4) Trained by Bob Baffert....as said in the Secret Circle post, he knows how to win Derbies.
5) He showed an ability to rate from just off the pace in the San Felipe, a race that he took the lead in the stretch, ran greenly, and was outfinished by Creative Cause. While finishing 2nd was disappointing, it shows a different dimension, that may be required to win the Derby.
6) The Arkansas Derby was won at Oaklawn Park, a surface that many consider to be very similar to Churchill Downs.
7) He is ridden by Mike Smith, who is widely considered the top jock around.
The bad - Not a lot of bad here, the stuff below is reaching.
1) Never raced as a 2 year old. Yes, this is a trend that he is bucking, as no horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 in like forever. Personally I feel it is meaningless, as he raced on January 16th, had it been 17 days earlier this point would have been moot.
2) Only 4 lifetime races. Similar to Gemologist, he is very lightly raced. He showed that lack of experience in the stretch of the San Felipe, when he weaved in and out in the stretch. Looked much more professional in the Arkansas Derby though.
3) His running style is what many will point to as a hang-up, and part of me wants to agree. The pace will likely be hot with the addition of Trinniberg to the field, and winning the Derby on the front end is an extremely difficult task, unless you are allowed to get away with moderate fractions. The hope for his backers is that Smith will be able to settle him in a good spot behind Trinniberg, and wait for him to inevitably stop. The key will be for Smith to judge the pace keenly and keep him in a striking position while not burning him up early.
Betting strategy - I think he will be the favorite. Top last race Beyer,. 3 triple digit Beyers, Bob Baffert, etc....probably somewhere around 4-1. I will likely use him everywhere on my tickets, but I don't forsee myself using him as a key horse, just due to the risk of him blowing himself out in a speed duel. If this race was devoid of early speed, I would have no problem keying on him, but that's not the case at this point. He looks to be the best horse in the field, but the best horse rarely wins the Derby. I expect him to throw a strong race, and am anxious to see if Gemologist, Creative Cause, Union Rags, Dullahan, or someone else can run him down.
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