Here are my initial Preakness thoughts.
1: Tiger Walk - The
outsiders in this race are just that, outsiders. This one finished 4th in the Wood, a race in
which the top finishers performed very poorly in the Derby. Top Beyer of 90 puts him on the edge of
hitting the board, so I will play for 4th, and maybe 3rd on a ticket without
Bodemeister.
2: Teeth of the Dog -
Very lightly raced, so eligible to improve.
But another exiting the Wood Memorial, thus far a very un-key race. His running style prior to the Wood suggests
he would be close to the front, which would compromise his chances. In the Wood he raced off the pace and passed
some horses. Of the outsiders, he's the
one I feel may have the best chance of crashing the party.
3: Pretension - Has a
win over the surface, but that is about all there is to like. Top Beyer of 83 thus far, would have to
greatly improve to even hit the board.
Passing here.
4: Zetterholm - All
of his wins are against NY breds, and at Aqueduct, one of my least favorite tracks. He would also have to take a huge step
forward in his toughest race by far.
Unless he gets some of the famous Dutrow drugs, he is a toss.
5: Went The Day Well
- Was running best late in the Derby, but then again, so was Ice Box in 2010,
and I don't think he's hit the board since then. The question to answer is, did he take a step
forward due to improving, or was it more of a function of a dream pace scenario
to nearly get to the leaders? I'm
inclined to think it was a little of both.
Did the race take much out of him, especially with the troubled
trip? Perhaps, but I am inclined to
believe the connections, Team Valor and Graham Motion would have skipped the
Preakness and waited for the Belmont if there were any fitness questions.
6: Creative Cause - I
definitely like this horse. He ran a
very good 5th in the Derby, covering the most ground in the field. It wasn't the difference in him not winning
the race though, he just ran out of gas in the stretch, despite getting a dream
pace scenario. But I'm not sure I love
the handling of the horse, from the whole blinkers decision, to flying him back
to California after the Derby, then flying back to Maryland this week with a
stop at Churchill....I'm not sure I would be primed for my best performance
come Preakness, and am not sure Creative Cause will be either. I think he is very likely to be 3rd-5th,
though it's not inconceivable for him to win, I think it's unlikely. I think this trail is taking something out of
him, and will be playing him as such.
7: Bodemeister - The
key horse to this race. How do you
handle him on the ticket?
First things first, he is the best horse in this field. His Kentucky Derby was a huge race, running
blistering fractions and nearly hanging on for the win, while running a 99
Beyer. But the best horst doesn't always
win, or even hit the board.
Enough already with the talk about Trinniberg costing
Bodemeister the Derby. Watch the
Derby. Watch it again if you need
to. Bode broke fast, and Mike Smith
seized the lead, which they say was the plan.
Fine, I am ok with that. But why
go so damn fast? Trinniberg was there,
but never was really pressing Bode, never tried to grab the lead, and
Trinniberg showed that he is capable of sub 22 quarters in his previous races. So the question becomes, was it Mike Smith
just not having much pace presence, or did Bode simply want to go that
fast? I'm inclined to believe that
Smith, being a veteran of thousands of races, knows what he was doing, and
therefore Bode just wanted to go that fast.
He is a super fast horse, all of his races show basically
that. He runs on the lead or right with
the lead and carries his speed as far as it can go. US horses are bred for speed. Baffert is a former quarterhorse trainer and
trains speed into his horses. For
California horses, especially with the return to dirt at Santa Anita, speed is
a virtue.
What I am getting at here is despite the absence of apparent
speed in the race, getting an easy lead will be a myth for Bode? Do you honestly expect him to run the opening
quarter of a mile in 24 seconds? The
slowest he has ever went is 23 and 1/5 in the San Felipe. If Smith tries to hold him and throttle him
back, it may adversely affect his chances even more than going fast. So he is going to be out there winging it,
and seeing how far he can carry it.
Now a big question....Is this too much too fast for
him? This is his 5th race in 10
weeks. The Derby had to take something
out of him, despite what the owner and trainer are saying. Plum Pretty, racing for Baffert on Oaks Day,
tried to come back in 3 weeks, made an easy lead, and could only hold 3rd
against a weak field, despite looking like more of a standout than Bode is
here.
So how do I see the race playing out? I think Bode has the lead until the turn, I
expect him to be headed by I'll Have Another there, and then the biggest
questions are, 1) Does he quit?, and 2) Are there enough horses in the field
good enough to pass him down the stretch to make this ticket pay big?
At this point I say that Bode is a great horse, but is he a
monster? Until proven otherwise, I will
choose no here, and try to beat him.
8: Daddy Nose Best -
What happened to this horse in the Derby?
No apparent excuse, and he got a great pace to run at. My initial hunch about the Sunland Derby and
El Camino preps being fraudulent is starting to ring true. He got awesome trips to run at in both of
those races, and posted speed figures that are likely higher than he is capable
of producing in a normal scenario. Therefore,
I am inclined to not believe in him. To
perhaps clinch things for me, my favorite jockey, Julien Leparoux gets the
mount. That being said, I am likely to
play him on the board on a non-Bode ticket especially.
9: I'll Have Another - His Derby trip was so
good, it couldn't have possibly taken as much out of him as it did Bode. He has also beaten Creative Cause, one of the
other big threats his last two races, so it looks like he is just better than
him. He traveled to Maryland immediately
after the Derby, so he should be well acclimated to his surroundings, which is
more than I can say for most of the rest of the field. He will be able to track Bode right from the
gate, should get a great stalking trip, and as long as he came out of the Derby
well he is my pick to win.
10: Optimizer - This horse just isn't very good. His best race was against a weak field in the
Rebel, and still only yielded a 91 Beyer, his best by 8 points. I think his best chance is 4th, again maybe
3rd on a non-Bode ticket.
11: Cozzetti - He ran
4th to Bode in the Arkansas Derby, but was beaten by 10 lengths. Before that he ran 3rd to Perspective in the
Tampa Bay Derby, and he did nothing in the Kentucky Derby. So initially he looks like he should be a
toss. I'll probably play him as high as
3rd on selected tickets, and likely 4th on the rest.
Decisions, decisions:
So now how do we play this race? I'm inclined to take a stand against
Bodemeister, for better or for worse. I
know that he is the best horse in this field, but a few circumstances of the
race lead me to believe that he is more vulnerable than you would expect.
My plan is to wheel around I'll Have Another, with a
secondary key horse being Went the Day Well.
I'll probably be chasing strictly superfecta's, with my tickets framed
likely framed like this:
9 / 5 / 2,6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11 (or potentially all)
9 / 5 / 1 ,10,11 / 2,6,7,8
9 / 6,7,8 / 5 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11
9 / 6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11 / 5
And then wheeling around the 9 in 2nd and 3rd, with the 5
finishing in 1st and 2nd, with potentially the 6,7,8 on top as well.
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