The gas companies officially have me brainwashed now.
I filled up this morning on the way into work for ONLY $2.54 per gallon, and I actually felt like I was getting a good deal. I'm such a lemming.
Thursday, August 31, 2006
Wednesday, August 23, 2006
Fantasy Football - Larry Johnson thoughts
Larry Johnson is the 2006 consensus #1 pick in all fantasy football circles, but I question whether or not that should be the case. I will outline the reasons below:
Recent history is riddled with RB’s who have torn it up for less than a full season, only to fall flat on their face the following season. In 2005, those players were Julius Jones and Kevin Jones (both correctly pointed out as risks by me prior to the season last year). A few years before that it was William Green. One would be advised to look at recent history, and not just 9 game splits when it comes down to projecting the 2006 season.
The Chiefs offensive system is different. New Head Coach, new offensive co-ordinator. Herm Edwards teams will never be confused with offensive juggernauts. Curtis Martin had some good years there, but nowhere near the kind of numbers that people are predicting out of Johnson.
An improved Chiefs defense (remember, Edwards preaches defense) will likely result in less touches, less wide open games, etc….
Offensive line problems. The loss of Willie Roaf could be a huge impact on the entire offensive scheme. His retirement came unexpected, allowing the Chiefs little time to prepare or counter.
Finally, I don’t expect Johnson to fall on his face and rush for 600 yards or anything ridiculous. The Chiefs don’t have any other valid RB’s, so Johnson will get the lion’s share of the work. But, I think 1200 yards and 10-12 TD’s is far more realistic then the 1800+ yards and 18+ TD’s people expect.
Recent history is riddled with RB’s who have torn it up for less than a full season, only to fall flat on their face the following season. In 2005, those players were Julius Jones and Kevin Jones (both correctly pointed out as risks by me prior to the season last year). A few years before that it was William Green. One would be advised to look at recent history, and not just 9 game splits when it comes down to projecting the 2006 season.
The Chiefs offensive system is different. New Head Coach, new offensive co-ordinator. Herm Edwards teams will never be confused with offensive juggernauts. Curtis Martin had some good years there, but nowhere near the kind of numbers that people are predicting out of Johnson.
An improved Chiefs defense (remember, Edwards preaches defense) will likely result in less touches, less wide open games, etc….
Offensive line problems. The loss of Willie Roaf could be a huge impact on the entire offensive scheme. His retirement came unexpected, allowing the Chiefs little time to prepare or counter.
Finally, I don’t expect Johnson to fall on his face and rush for 600 yards or anything ridiculous. The Chiefs don’t have any other valid RB’s, so Johnson will get the lion’s share of the work. But, I think 1200 yards and 10-12 TD’s is far more realistic then the 1800+ yards and 18+ TD’s people expect.
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
Main Event report
Well it was a very disappointing Main Event for me…and not just because I was eliminated on day 1, but it was the way that I played that was disappointing. My buddy who played on Sunday said it sounded like I just didn’t get the cards, which is partially right, but I didn’t play the cards I got very good either.
Joe Sebok (Barry Greenstein’s son), who lost a prop bet to Gavin Smith was wearing a costume of a bear, with a diaper on….or a bear cub. Doyle Brunson’s daughter, Pam, was also at my table. Immediately I could peg one guy at my table the soft spot. The rest of the table was pretty tough.
Some interesting/key hands from my main event:
Level 1 (blinds of 25/50) Hand #1: I pick up my first pot
A player in MP raises to 150, I call on the button with As9s. The SB and BB both call as well. Flop comes AdTd2d, all check to me, I bet 500 and take it down.
Level 1 Hand #2: I get my stack to a high point of 10,600
I raise to 150 with 8s7s in MP, one caller and the weak player calls in the BB. Flop comes Ks8d5s. BB leads out for 300, I raise to 1200, caller folds, and the BB goes into the tank. I am pretty sure he is on a K here, or a spade draw. I am definitely planning on moving in here if he re-raises me. He finally folds.
Level 1 Hand #3: A dumb, dumb play by me
UTG+1, an Argentinian guy wearing a scarf limps, all fold to me in the SB, I complete with Q9, and the BB checks. Flop comes A94, I check, BB checks, Argentina bets 150, I raise to 450, BB folds and Argentina calls. Turn is a 5, I bet 600 and he thinks and calls. The river is a 6, and I decide that he has the ace, and is likely calling if I bet, so I check. He checks behind and tables AcJc. I have figured out that he won’t fold top pair, unfortunately I am unable to exploit it.
I go to the first break after 2 hours and 20 minutes play with 9550 in chips, down from the 10K we started with.
Level 2 (blinds of 50/100) Hand #4: Toughest hand of the tourney here
UTG + 1 raises to 300 (he just got moved here about 5 hands ago, so no read). I flat call with 99 on the button and we see the flop heads up. (Pot = 750) Flop comes 863, suits unimportant. He leads out a continuation bet of 600, I flat call again. (Pot = 1950) Turn comes a 7, and he very dis-interestingly checks. I debate checking behind, but decide I don’t want to give overcards a free look so I bet 1000. He re-raises all-in. After thinking for a while I decide to fold.
Commentary: His turn check was so dis-interested that I was a little scared by it, as it seemed too put on. I couldn’t bring myself to check it though at the time. My feelings are that I should have checked it and then called the river. Playing it the way that I did was the only way I could lose the pot. My actual feelings on the hand are that he had 88 or 77, and either flopped a set or turned a set, with the possibility that he had overcards like AK and was making a move. I don’t think AA, KK or QQ would have played it this way.
Not much else happened the rest of this level and I was at 5250 when this level ended.
Level 3 (blinds of 100/200) Hand #5: I get lucky
UTG limps (had a stack of 3100, he had been doing some limping up to that point), I raise to 900 from MP with AKo. All fold to UTG who moves all-in for his 3100. I figured he could have been doing this with anything from AK, to 77 and up. Getting 5-2 odds to call, I make the call and he shows KK. I spike a K on the turn and eliminate him. This gets me back to about 8300.
Dinner break comes at 6:45pm, so we are 6 hours into play. My count going into break was 8250, and I am feeling pretty decent about myself. Grab dinner at the All American Grill with Victory and Joe (up to 35K chips at this point). Nice filet and baked potato, as it’s going to hopefully be a long night.
Level 4 (blinds of 100/200 with a 25 ante) Hand #6: A play I wish I had back
I’m in the SB, and all fold to Pam Brunson in the CO, who raised to 800. She has been a habitual thief from this position, so I was planning on a re-steal. I get 77 and re-raise to 2100. BB folds and she calls. The flop comes J65 and I bet out 2500, she raises all-in and I fold. I am left with about 3600 now.
Commentary: I hate this hand all-around. First off, if I am going to re-steal with 77, and get that flop, I have to move all-in at the flop and make this my stand. By betting what I did, I make it look like I want a way to fold and still be alive. She may have had me or may not have, but I have to put the onus on her. If she has a hand like 88-TT, I may get her to fold. She also hadn’t shown that she would fold to a re-raise after entering the pot, so I definitely should have flat-called the flop and re-evaluated.
Level 4 Hand #7: Just pure stupidity.
Limper on my right in EP (he had limped a lot and folded to a raise). I raise to 1K with 77, and guy immediately to my left raises to 2500. This raise meant a lot to me, as he had been cold calling raises with hands like AK and QQ-TT to that point. I read him as having to have a big pair, with AK being a slight possibility. The fact that I only left 2500 or so behind the line made it seem like I was definitely calling, so I put him on the higher pair and decided to fold and leave myself one last barrel in my gun.
Commentary: This might have been my worst hand of the night right here.
Level 4 Hand #8: The end.
3-4 limpers to me in the SB with J9o. I complete (I should have pushed all-in for the 2K I had left), BB checks. Flop comes Q94 and I move all-in. All fold to button who calls with KQ. Turn is a K, and river is a blank and I am out.
Commentary: Just chalk it up to another desperate mistake in a day filled with mistakes and bad plays.
All in all it was an incredible experience, but I played weak and reckless, which is a horrible combination. I can only hope I qualify next year to give it another shot. Maybe next year I can also get a table full of weaker players, as they were all around.
Our table did get a lot of camera work due to the attention whoring of Sebok and Gavin Smith. Other interesting notes was Shannon Elizabeth being a few tables away and coming by twice (very hot in person too), and the tall guy from “Everybody Love’s Raymond” being a table over as well. Doyle Brunson also was one table away for several hours.
Joe Sebok (Barry Greenstein’s son), who lost a prop bet to Gavin Smith was wearing a costume of a bear, with a diaper on….or a bear cub. Doyle Brunson’s daughter, Pam, was also at my table. Immediately I could peg one guy at my table the soft spot. The rest of the table was pretty tough.
Some interesting/key hands from my main event:
Level 1 (blinds of 25/50) Hand #1: I pick up my first pot
A player in MP raises to 150, I call on the button with As9s. The SB and BB both call as well. Flop comes AdTd2d, all check to me, I bet 500 and take it down.
Level 1 Hand #2: I get my stack to a high point of 10,600
I raise to 150 with 8s7s in MP, one caller and the weak player calls in the BB. Flop comes Ks8d5s. BB leads out for 300, I raise to 1200, caller folds, and the BB goes into the tank. I am pretty sure he is on a K here, or a spade draw. I am definitely planning on moving in here if he re-raises me. He finally folds.
Level 1 Hand #3: A dumb, dumb play by me
UTG+1, an Argentinian guy wearing a scarf limps, all fold to me in the SB, I complete with Q9, and the BB checks. Flop comes A94, I check, BB checks, Argentina bets 150, I raise to 450, BB folds and Argentina calls. Turn is a 5, I bet 600 and he thinks and calls. The river is a 6, and I decide that he has the ace, and is likely calling if I bet, so I check. He checks behind and tables AcJc. I have figured out that he won’t fold top pair, unfortunately I am unable to exploit it.
I go to the first break after 2 hours and 20 minutes play with 9550 in chips, down from the 10K we started with.
Level 2 (blinds of 50/100) Hand #4: Toughest hand of the tourney here
UTG + 1 raises to 300 (he just got moved here about 5 hands ago, so no read). I flat call with 99 on the button and we see the flop heads up. (Pot = 750) Flop comes 863, suits unimportant. He leads out a continuation bet of 600, I flat call again. (Pot = 1950) Turn comes a 7, and he very dis-interestingly checks. I debate checking behind, but decide I don’t want to give overcards a free look so I bet 1000. He re-raises all-in. After thinking for a while I decide to fold.
Commentary: His turn check was so dis-interested that I was a little scared by it, as it seemed too put on. I couldn’t bring myself to check it though at the time. My feelings are that I should have checked it and then called the river. Playing it the way that I did was the only way I could lose the pot. My actual feelings on the hand are that he had 88 or 77, and either flopped a set or turned a set, with the possibility that he had overcards like AK and was making a move. I don’t think AA, KK or QQ would have played it this way.
Not much else happened the rest of this level and I was at 5250 when this level ended.
Level 3 (blinds of 100/200) Hand #5: I get lucky
UTG limps (had a stack of 3100, he had been doing some limping up to that point), I raise to 900 from MP with AKo. All fold to UTG who moves all-in for his 3100. I figured he could have been doing this with anything from AK, to 77 and up. Getting 5-2 odds to call, I make the call and he shows KK. I spike a K on the turn and eliminate him. This gets me back to about 8300.
Dinner break comes at 6:45pm, so we are 6 hours into play. My count going into break was 8250, and I am feeling pretty decent about myself. Grab dinner at the All American Grill with Victory and Joe (up to 35K chips at this point). Nice filet and baked potato, as it’s going to hopefully be a long night.
Level 4 (blinds of 100/200 with a 25 ante) Hand #6: A play I wish I had back
I’m in the SB, and all fold to Pam Brunson in the CO, who raised to 800. She has been a habitual thief from this position, so I was planning on a re-steal. I get 77 and re-raise to 2100. BB folds and she calls. The flop comes J65 and I bet out 2500, she raises all-in and I fold. I am left with about 3600 now.
Commentary: I hate this hand all-around. First off, if I am going to re-steal with 77, and get that flop, I have to move all-in at the flop and make this my stand. By betting what I did, I make it look like I want a way to fold and still be alive. She may have had me or may not have, but I have to put the onus on her. If she has a hand like 88-TT, I may get her to fold. She also hadn’t shown that she would fold to a re-raise after entering the pot, so I definitely should have flat-called the flop and re-evaluated.
Level 4 Hand #7: Just pure stupidity.
Limper on my right in EP (he had limped a lot and folded to a raise). I raise to 1K with 77, and guy immediately to my left raises to 2500. This raise meant a lot to me, as he had been cold calling raises with hands like AK and QQ-TT to that point. I read him as having to have a big pair, with AK being a slight possibility. The fact that I only left 2500 or so behind the line made it seem like I was definitely calling, so I put him on the higher pair and decided to fold and leave myself one last barrel in my gun.
Commentary: This might have been my worst hand of the night right here.
Level 4 Hand #8: The end.
3-4 limpers to me in the SB with J9o. I complete (I should have pushed all-in for the 2K I had left), BB checks. Flop comes Q94 and I move all-in. All fold to button who calls with KQ. Turn is a K, and river is a blank and I am out.
Commentary: Just chalk it up to another desperate mistake in a day filled with mistakes and bad plays.
All in all it was an incredible experience, but I played weak and reckless, which is a horrible combination. I can only hope I qualify next year to give it another shot. Maybe next year I can also get a table full of weaker players, as they were all around.
Our table did get a lot of camera work due to the attention whoring of Sebok and Gavin Smith. Other interesting notes was Shannon Elizabeth being a few tables away and coming by twice (very hot in person too), and the tall guy from “Everybody Love’s Raymond” being a table over as well. Doyle Brunson also was one table away for several hours.
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