Some mistakes pay off

I haven't played much online poker lately, since about 2 weeks before the Kentucky Derby, but my fun at 20/40 during the Derby made me want to play some cash games. I login to Party/Empire poker and see they have added more 30/60 tables. 15/30 has been my primary cash game for about 6 months, but with the addition of all the new tables, I figure I can play 1-2 30/60 tables, as opposed to 4 15/30 tables.

Last night I played a brief session, and caught 4 of a kind on one hand from the big blind. While the next hand was being played, I looked at the hand history from the previous hand to see what my opponent had who called me on the river. As this was happening, the action came to me on the table. I accidentally clicked raise, which meant that I was three-betting, after 1 limper and a middle position raise. The BB called cold, the limper called, and the raiser called. My cards for the accident were T3 offsuit. The flop came AT4. I bet out, the BB raised me, all folded to me and I called. There was 480 in the pot at this point. The turn was a 5, and I checked to the BB, he bet, and I decided to call, getting 9-1 on my call. I was pretty sure I was behind, but I figured I had 4 sure outs with any 2, and my T was a likely out for 2 more outs, and the 3 was possibly an out, giving me a total of 7.5 outs (approximate). I called as my 6-1 odds were better than the pot odds. The river was a beautiful deuce, and I checkraised him on the river, for an $840 pot. He had AQ, meaning I did have 9 outs to win the pot.

As a side note, he was really pissed after the hand, and suffice it to say he put a note next to my name indicating that I 3-bet T3o from the SB.

Derby fever

Got back from the Kentucky Derby on Monday. A lot to write about since then.

Was in Cincy for work from Tuesday through Thursday last week, so I went straight from Cincy to Louisville. Doug drove down from Detroit and met me in Cincy and we drove the 2 hours to Louisville together in my rental car. Got in around 830pm and caught the end of Survivor, then Doug and I headed to Mickey D's for dinner and then the bar. We ended up at the same titty bar as last year. We figured we had time to kill until Paul arrived from North Carolina and Sonny arrived from Vegas, both around midnight. This titty bar had two seperate halves. One side was topless, but more like a sportsbar, and the other side was all nude and no alcohol. As much as we both love skank snatch, we spent a majority of our time at the sports bar side, although I ditched Doug whenever the fat chick came by looking for dollars. Doug got stuck giving her $8 or so throughout the night. This chick was disgustingly fat and had no business wearing a tight t-shirt, let alone being topless and in a thong. Absolutely disgusting. Anyways, Paul got in around 12am, and Sonny at 1am. We stayed there the rest of the night and got back around 4am.

Friday was Oaks day, I had some nice success on the Oaks a few years back, cashing the superfecta for $2 with a 20/1 shot in 1st. That got me 1600 that day. This Oaks day started out bad, I was really close to hitting some races, but just barely missing. This was encouraging considering I hadn't bet horses in nearly a year, and my handicapping felt like it was on. I was stuck about 750 going into the 9th race of the day, when I hit for about 700 on a superfecta. Unfortunately this required IRS forms to sign. The next race was the Oaks, and Sis City was a 3-5 favorite (a horse that Joe Torre is part owner of). Doug put a $300 win bet on her, even though I felt like she was extremely beatable. Turns out she ran 4th, and I cashed the trifecta with the longest shot on the board hitting 3rd!!! This again forced me to sign IRS forms, for a cash of about 850. Only one race was after that, and I ended up about 350 ahead for the afternoon.

That night my buddy Eric got into town for his first derby. We decided to drive to Indiana to go to the Caesars riverboat. After waiting for about 2 hours, a spot on the 20/40 table opened up, and Sonny got the next spot. We proceeded to spar for about 2 hours, and played several big pots. There was a lot of good poker going on, more than I can recall live in a while. It was the first time I felt like I could bluff in limit in a long time. I ended up ahead about 800 in poker. Sonny lost a bit more than that, as well as some at blackjack, Eric won at poker but got smoked at blackjack, and Doug lost at poker and at blackjack (notice a theme for Doug...this comes into play on Saturday night).

Saturday was derby day, and it was a rough morning on about 2 hours of sleep, but we were able to get up around 9am and get ready for the track. Doug decided not to go. He was stuck about 1800, and was throwing up in the morning. I thought he would suck it up and go, but he just laid back down. So apparently he came to Kentucky for the titties and the Oaks. I wasn't feeling much like betting, but when I hit the Superfecta in the 3rd race for another IRS ticket (about $800 more), it got me a little more interested. I lost for the next 7 races, including the derby, of which I had no chance to win. I placed bets for Mert and Dave, and their horses were nowhere close (Dave's finished 19th). I actually had the winner on some of my tickets, but the 70-1 2nd place horse was nowhere to be found. The race was such a fluke, with such a blistering early pace that it set up perfectly for the winner. I see very little chance of Giacomo winning the Preakness, but I think many others feel the same way. Going into the last race I was about even for the day, and had a 5-1 shot I really liked. I ended up putting 140 on him to win, and he won in a photo. Following that, the 2nd placer objected to the finish, saying that my horse interfered with him in the stretch. It turns out their was interference, but it was caused by a 3rd horse, so the objection was not allowed. Sonny and Paul caught the trifecta that raise, so it turned out to be a good finish. I ended up +500 on the day.

Saturday night we were exhausted, but found the energy to see some more titties. Went to a dirty place by our hotel, that only had 5 dancers, and left after one beer. Then we went to a new place, that Eric had been to before. I ended up talking to the waitress and paid for Doug to get on stage. They announced him as "The biggest f*cking loser at the Derby." They stripped him down to his boxers, and then whipped his bare ass with his belt. The lashes sounded like they hurt, but as far as I'm concerned, he deserved it for ditching the Derby.

Good time was had by all, I ended up around 1500 or so for the trip, call it 1000 after the money I blew on hotel, beer, strippers, etc....

Update

First update in about a week and a half, and there really isn't much to update. I am down about $150 in my challenge, and obviously am not going to make my goal. It's mostly for lack of trying, I went on a bad run and got very burned out. I've also been really busy with work, spending some time in Cincinnati, and sick as well, so I haven't been able to play. So if I do decide to go to the WSOP, it will be on a whim. I just think I have better places to spend $2000.

I have dabbled a little bit with Full Tilt Poker, playing some low limit Razz. I think I just needed to step back a little bit from Hold'em to sharpen my game. I'll be playing in a live $100 tourney this weekend, so I'm feeling refreshed for that. I assume the caliber of players will be horrible, so barring any really bad luck I should be able to make a good showing there.

Our teams first softball game is tonight. After my horrible showing last year at the plate, I really need to rebound. My batting average was about .575, but that really didn't tell the story. I had very few extra base hits, and really wasn't hitting the ball hard like I usually do. Maybe it's old age, maybe it's me losing my interest, hopefully this season will be different. It's the last year for this group of guys, probably our 10th year playing together. Our last 3 regular seasons, we are probably around 36-6, so maybe we all just lost our fire. But 3 years removed from our Livonia city championship and I'm starting to get a little hungry. Last year we were 3rd place, and with the way our team hit last year, we deserved nowhere near that. Our defense carried us through a lot of close games.

More tomorrow.

A major bump in the road

Well, the short term has really kicked my ass this weekend. Got in a bunch of tourney's, only to lose in every way imaginable. I'm losing with QQ to A8, losing every race I can think of, losing AK to A8, and I am running into AA far too often. 2nd hand of a tourney yesterday and KK ran into AA.

Since my high water mark of +2900 or so, I have played 31 tournaments, with 3 wins, 0 seconds, and 3 thirds, for -2465 in the stretch. That's a 20% in the money percentage, which is almost half of what my long term percentage is. My play for the most part has been pretty good. There are a few moves I would like to have back, but mostly variance has been biting me in the ass.

So now there are about 16 days for me to get to my goal. I have played 79 tourney's so far, with 12 wins, 4 seconds, and 7 thirds, for a profit of $215. The total profit is $415.

I still think I can make it to my goal if I keep my head on straight, but if I don't, no big deal. I've been on fire in sports to allow my bankroll to actually increase during this down streak.

Stuck in neutral (sort of)

To recap the last 2 days:

Tuesday night I didn't play any, as I was putting together a new computer desk and organizing my basement. I also had internet problems (2nd time in a week) where I couldn't get onto anything on the web. Called Comcast and all I got was a recording saying they were having outages. Read on the internet that problems are going on all over the place.

Wednesday night, Doug came over to help me take the old computer desk to the street for trash, and we played some multi-tables. I didn't fare well in the PL Omaha H/L tourney that Doug convinced me to play and then he didn't play himself.

Also got in some SNG's at the end of the night. I played 8, with 1 win and 1 3rd for a loss of $320. Ironically enough, my internet connection still had major issues, but I was able to log on to the poker sites after a few attempts. I took a few tough beats, and wasn't playing very well. Maybe it was my unfamiliarity with my new desk, and playing on the desktop instead of the laptop as I've grown accustomed to. It could have also been the fact that I couldn't surf the net while I played, which is something that I always have going on in the periphery. In any case, it was a down day.

Fortunately I turned in a 4-0-1 bases day, with my only non-win being a tough push on a total (OAK 6 TOR 3...it was tied 2-2 in the bottom of the 8th).

Results to this point:

56 tourney's played
(10-1st, 4-2nd, 5-3rd, total profit $2560 for an ROI of 21.3%)

First losing day

Although only a slight loser. 11 tourney's played, (1 1st, 2 2nd, 0 3rd). I had 3 4th's which hurt. I played very well, with no noticeable mistakes. I got really lucky on the tourney I won, and really unlucky on the ones I finished 2nd and 4th.

For the 4 days I've been doing this, I'm still well ahead of schedule, with 48 tourneys played (9-1st, 4-2nd, 4-3rd), for a profit of $2680 and an ROI of 26.0%. My total profit is $2880. My target at this point was +$700.

After 3 days

Dimarco losing in the playoff was very disappointing, but exciting. At least I was able to add more to my hedge on Tiger prior to the start of the playoff.

A successful day 3:
15 tournie played, (3 1st, 1 2nd, 2 3rd), net profit: $1175, ROI 36.4%


Totals for challenge:
37 tournies played (8 1st, 2 2nd, 4 3rd), net profit: $2845, ROI 35.8%

Total profit of $3045 so far.

I was playing real well last night, and probably could have played more. I'm toying with tonight or tomorrow night being an off day, depending on how I feel.

I'm finishing in the money a little bit less than usual, but my results have been very good because of a huge percentage of wins. Hopefully I can increase my in the money percentage up to about 40%, to counter when my heads-up luck starts to slow down.

Plugging along

Played 8 tournaments yesterday. Started out well, but missed the money in my last 5. I felt my game kind of getting away from me so I decided to stop after that. The 8 tourneys left me with 2 wins and 1 third for a profit of $680. A few nice halftime NBA bets made it a very nice night.

Also finished 28th out of 900 or so in the Stars rebuy, got knocked out in a blind battle between KJ vs AK. I had 11 outs by the river but missed and was eliminated. That left me a profit of $55 or so.

Dimarco came out terrible in the end of the 3rd round, and a 4 stroke lead has turned into a 3 stroke deficit. Fortunately I hedged my action, and if Tiger wins I make about a 1000, if Bjorn wins I make 400, and if Dimarco pulls it back together I make 5800.

Results after 2 days.

22 played (5-1-2), for a profit of $1670. ROI is 35.3%.

Including the cancelled tourney, I am at $1870, more than halfway to the goal after only 2 days. I'm prepared for the inevitable downswing, but by limiting my play when I'm not at my best, hopefully I can keep things on an even level.

The first day has been a success despite some ugly or tough losses. Two of my knockouts were where I flopped two pair from the big blind. One of those I got counterfeited on the river to lose, the other one I ran into a straight.

I was playing 4 tourneys most of the time, and had one real odd occurrence. Suddenly I was missing one table, I was pretty sure I didn't get knocked out of it, but I was watching TV at the time too. So I closed out of Empire, and re-opened it, and all of my tables opened up, except for the one I was missing. So I was confused, found the table # I was in, yet still couldn't find it. Half an hour later, I get an e-mail saying that $415 was credited to my account. At the time I was in 3rd or 4th out of 5 players, with a decent chip stack. So a nice profit, although it was a little odd. The table wasn't very tough, so it's disappointing to not get better than $415.

Here are the results for the day:
Tournaments played (1st-2nd-3rd): 14 (3-1-1)
+/- (ROI): +990 (32.9%)
Cancelled tourneys: +215

Overall: +1205

And so it begins...my second hand out of the gate in the first tourney I pick up TT UTG, raise it to 45. One MP caller and we see a flop of 442. I bet out 90 into a 120 pot, and he calls. The turn is a 4. I bet out 240 into the 300 and he calls. The river is a 2, making the board 44242. I decide that this is the perfect card to push all in with, as he may call playing the board (unless he has JJ or A4, those are the only hands I can put him on that he wins with, and those would be some very passive jacks). He calls and turns over QT, and I double up immediately. Hope it all goes this smooth.

The plan

Ok, I've decided on the parameters of the challenge. I'm giving myself 26 days, which is the amount of time I have until I leave for the Kentucky Derby to make enough money to play in one of the events. I'm using a par of making $400/week playing poker (I'm well above this for the year, but this is a good par). Over these 26 days, I need to make $2000 over par to justify playing in one of the events.

Using the 200+15 Party Poker SNG's, and using a base earn of 15% per SNG, I will need to play 109 SNG's. (my lifetime earn in these is 18.8%, and this year I am at 24%) Assuming 6 days where I play none, I will have to average 5.5 SNG's per day. I will target to play at least 6 SNG's per day when I play. There will be days where I play far more than this, especially if I am running good, but mainly provided I feel that I am playing a good game, I will continue playing.

This seems very attainable. Although I know that variance could rear it's ugly head and I might fall short or even lose money in this stretch, it's worth the shot.

If I reach the goal of this challenge with time to spare, yet still feel like playing, I plan on continuing, as it makes no sense to jeopardize future profits for the sake of hitting a goal.

Setting the guidelines

It's obvious I desire to play in the World Series of Poker at some point in my life, but a 10K buy-in is completely unrealistic for me to invest in a single poker tournament, especially with how long the odds are of making the money (9:1) and of winning (6000 or more : 1). But, the World Series of Poker has several smaller buy-in events that are much more realistic. I am targetting the $1500 buy-in NL Holdem' events that are running on June 3rd, or June 10th.

In order to make this a reward, I am creating a challenge for myself to make it there. The parameters of this challenge will be developed later this evening, but they will entail forcing myself to play a certain # of hours (or sit-n-go's) over a specified period of time. From this I should be able to develop an attainable financial goal if I play the required amount of time.

As most of you know, with my 15 month old daughter, it sometimes is difficult to put in the "hours". By doing this over a short burst (1 week, 2 weeks), and having a set goal in mind, I should be able to put in the required time.

More to follow.