Jose Valverde - I can't take it any longer

I have bit my tongue for far too long on this issue (unless you ask my closest friends or my wife).  This Jose Valverde experiment is annoying the absolute piss out of me for more reasons than I can count (though I will try in the below post). 

The raw numbers:

I thought we were through with this mess at the end of last year.  I could see it coming a mile away....anyone with a reasonable baseball IQ who watches the game and understands statistics could see it coming.  The guy clearly wasn't the same pitcher in 2012 that we was in previous seasons.   Here is his K/INN rate since 2007, the year he became a full time closer with Arizona:  1.21, 1.15, 1.04, 1.00, 0.95, 0.70.  Pretty distinct trend there, and something that you could see plainly with the naked eye.  The guy was simply struggling to miss bats (more on that later), which is the primary thing a pitcher can control. 

What makes this more annoying is that I would have to read articles, and hear people on sports radio touting his high save percentage, and that he is still getting the job done.  This was exactly the wrong kind of negative reinforcement that the Tigers brass did not need, as they were constantly putting a pitcher into a critical situation, who was getting by on pure good fortune in a small sample size. 

He has 2 pitches

I only say this because I've heard a rumor that Valverde actually has 2 pitches, a fastball, and a splitter.  I say it's a rumor because I can't recall seeing anything other than a fastball in the last 1 year plus.  Let's first ignore the absurdity of any pitcher ever getting to the highest level of the game and only throwing 1 pitch - a fastball, as it seems ridiculous to me to for it to even be done at a high school level. 

So let's first assume that throwing only 1 pitch is rational.  If that's the case, you would have to assume that fastball is a top shelf plus pitch, probably lighting up the radar gun near 100 MPH with a good deal of movement, and perhaps even good location and command.  That's not the case with Valverde, his fastball regularly clocks in around 91-94 MPH, with the occasional blip at 96 MPH if he somehow catches a hot radar gun.  Movement???  What movement, the damn thing seems to be straight as an arrow, flat with zero drop.  The capper to this?  He can't even control it, evidenced by his recent outing on May 12th, where he walked the leadoff hitter, and throughout the inning had thrown more balls than strikes. 

During yesterday's outing, Rod Allen, the Tigers color commentator, who has rarely had an insight that I considered to be groundbreaking, pointed out that of Valverde's first 20 pitches, all were fastballs.  No shit!!!  If Allen can recognize it, then you better believe other teams are going to pick up on it (unless you are as blind as the Tigers apparently).

Imagine your hitting approach when facing Valverde.  You have to be patient, as you don't know whether he is going to throw strikes.  You are sitting dead red on fastball, as there is zero chance you are going to receive anything other than that.  If you happen to get behind in the count by letting a good fastball go by, not to worry, you are certainly going to get another one. 

At this point (and it was the same last year), Valverde is throwing the ball hard, trying to get it over the plate, with zero movement and basically hoping that the other team either doesn't hit it hard, or hits it right at somebody. 

Intangibles - settling effect on the bullpen

It's been argued, primarily by Tigers brass, that installing Valverde as the closer has a settling effect on the rest of the bullpen, as the other pitchers better know their roles.  They do have a point to this, but this could also be achieved by naming me the closer....or anyone else on the team. 

Others may argue that if you don't have a replacement in mind, then you can't argue Valverde being the closer.  To that I agree, so my response is ANYONE on the roster,  and quite possibly anybody on the AAA roster.  I would even allow Don Kelly a shot at it, at least he threw an off-speed pitch in the inning he pitched a couple of years ago. 

Conclusions: 

There comes a point when the tangibles begin to outweigh the intangibles, we can only hope that day comes before the real games start (and this is assuming we win the division and are in the playoffs, which is a giant leap this early in the season.  Having Valverde as the closer is doing the entire team and fanbase a great disservice, as it is not putting the team in anywhere near the best position to win a game, championship, etc.... 

What to do about the Tigers

This has been the most disappointing Tigers season in recent memory. It's been pretty much the antithesis of the magical 2006 "rise from the ashes" season that they put together. Pretty much everyone in the country figured they would have no trouble scoring runs, and the bullpen would be a problem. Well it turned out that at some point in the season every part of the team failed miserably, and wholesale changes are in order. But...if they make the right moves, inject youth into the right spots, 2009 could be a contending season.

My recommendations for the positions:

C: This position was in a ton of upheaval this year. Pudge started the year there, and late in pre-season Brandon Inge got moved to the backup spot. Once Pudge was traded, Inge took it over. I like Inge, but his hitting has been pretty dismal this year, and it was never very good to begin with. That being said, there isn't a lot on the market in the position, and I am willing to give Inge a partial pass due to the off-season upheaval he underwent, along with his rotating positions, so I say that he starts 2009 as the catcher. We really need to grab a suitable backup, because Dane Sardinha might be the worst hitter I have ever seen. Even a poor mans Brandon Inge at the plate would be better than what we are sending up there.

1B: Miguel Cabrera is a stud, no question, even in a down year (by the incredible standards he has created for himself). But the bottom line is that he is getting too fat, and at 25 if he keeps this up, he will look like Cecil Fielder. His 1B defense is a little rough/lazy, but this is his first year at the position and I expect him to improve.

2B: Most people love Placido Polanco, and point to his high average the last few years. He also is one of the few players who can hit to the opposite field with the intention of moving the runners. But because of the reasons listed above, he is one of the few marketable commodities we have left. His high average tends to be somewhat empty, and his range at 2B is incredibly lacking. Because of that, I wouldn't mind trading him if we can get some value for him, but I fully expect us to hang on to him.

3B: Carlos Guillen is another that played musical positions. Hmmm...no wonder the team had some struggles, 3/5 of the infield moved to new positions this year, and even those roles weren't well defined until several months into the season. I'm not sure what to do with him, he can still hit, but he has some significant injury issues, and his defense can go from good to piss-poor. I think we are stuck with him here. The main problem is that he probably needs to DH, but I don't believe he hits for enough power to DH, and we have so many other potential DH's on this roster.

SS: What to do with Edgar Renteria....he has pretty much looked indifferent to me the whole season, both at bat and in the field. I don't believe Ramon Santiago is more than a utility player. Renteria had a terrible season 2 years ago in Boston, only to follow it up with a career year in Atlanta. I'm willing to give Renteria one more year to figure things out.

LF: What a mess. My opinion is to trade Marcus Thames for anything we can get (I know, a lot of people love him). He hits 20+ HR's, but they are in spurts, and then he goes through a month without hitting a damn thing. Inject Matt Joyce or Clete Thomas into this position.

CF: Curtis Granderson....perhaps the only player on the team I struggle to say a bad thing about. Should be an OF fixture in Detroit for another 5-10 years...minimum.

RF: Magglio....a lot of articles that I have read have suggested trading him....but despite some comical defense, his production is phenomenal and consistent. He hit .365 in 2007, and in 2008 he has hovered in the .310-.320 range. I say hold onto him.

DH: Currently held by Gary Sheffield, he has been terrible most of his time here due to either injury or old age. I say dump him, eat his salary if we have to and get somebody else in there.

SP1: Justin Verlander. I have said time and time again that I don't believe he's an ace. This year has been further evidence of that. I believe he is a headcase. However, he is young, so he may develop the mentality needed to be an ace/stopper. At this point he is a cooler though. Obviously at this point though, he is our #1 next season.

SP2: Jeremy Bonderman....his season was cut short due to the blood clot and subsequent surgery. I don't believe he will ever develop into a #1 (headcase issues again), but he can be a #2, especially if he ever develops a third pitch of some type.

SP3: Kenny Rogers - he gone.

SP4: Dontrelle Willis - Control problems and injuries destroyed his season. I don't believe we can count on him at all for next season, despite the recently extended contract.

SP5: Nate Robertson - total trash this season. Another long term contract signed, this one with absolutely zero merit.

Other:
Armando Gallaraga - Came in in May and has been pretty much our ace. He's obviously one to count on for next season.
Zach Miner - I said that he had #5 pitcher written all over him, and to this point he has done excellent in that role.

Suddenly, a rotation that started the season with 2 RHP and 3 LHP has turned into a 2009 rotation of 4 RHP and 0 LHP with the 5th spot being uncertain. It's reasonably certain that the #5 spot will be manned by a lefty, but the question is, who? CC Sabathia would sure look good in the rotation, and though he would be a match made in eating heaven with Miggy, I don't expect it to happen. If that doesn't happen, perhaps Rick Porcello, one of the top prospects in baseball can enter the rotation out of spring training.

Bullpen: Pretty much the worst part of the team all year long, due to injuries and total ineffectiveness.

Todd Jones - He gone.
Fernando Rodney - The closer until we get better.
Joel Zumaya - I don't believe his future is in the rotation given the list above, so hopefully he gets healthy. If the 2006 Zumaya ever returns, we have a closer.
Kyle Farnsworth - He gone
Bobby Seay - Been very good at times, not so good at other times as the lefty specialist. Think he will still be here.
Freddy Dolsi - Showed flashes of ability, think he will get a shot in short relief next year as well.
Aqualino Lopez - Done a good job in mid-relief this season. Not sure his contract status but wouldn't mind if he was still here.

The rest of the pen is a mystery. Our first round pick (his name escapes me) was a relief pitcher in college, and almost MLB ready.

A lot of questions for the team this season.

PNC Park Trip report

Went to Pittsburgh to visit PNC Park for the first time, and to see the Tigers play the Pirates. The Tigers won the game 9-8, nearly blowing a 4-0 and a 9-2 lead.

Some observations/thoughts on the park (most of my comparisons will be relative to Comerica Park, which is my most logical frame of reference):

I like it much more than Comerica Park (built around the same time). PNC seems to have much more character. It includes several local eateries, etc....which is more than I can say for Comerica, unless you count Little Caesars. There is just more of a fun feel about it. Comerica has that feel now, but didn't when our record was similar to the Pirates record is now.

Everything seems cozier...it seems that we are closer to the action at PNC, though not much more. The downtown area where the park is pretty close to Heinz field. I didn't notice a lot of restaurants nearby to the park, though I only saw it from one side. Parking/access was pretty easy, though we were very early.

Tigers fans traveled well, as it seemed there were nearly as many of us there as Pirate fans. I'll give the Pirates fans credit though, they were very loud and excited getting back to within one run. Not bad support considering how bad they have been of late.

The bridges in the background (can be seen in the picture) are pretty cool to look at, and I think the downtown backdrop is better than the one at Comerica.

Overall a good time. I wish I could spend a summer traveling to different ballparks. Unfortunately to this point the only places I have been are Comerica Park, Tiger Stadium, Wrigley Field and Arlington Stadium (Texas old park).

Road trip

Taking a mini road trip with Victory and her family this Sunday to see the Tigers play the Pirates in Pittsburgh. I've heard that PNC Park is an awesome park. Can't wait.

Go get 'em Tigers

So the Tigers are off to an MLB leading 36-18 start. It is a long time coming for this once proud franchise. This is slightly tempered by the fact that Mike Maroth is out for 3 months (at least) after having surgery to have bone chips removed from his elbow. This has caused a lot of panic on the Sports radio waves here in Detroit, wondering how we are going to survive and suggesting swinging a big trade for a pitcher such as Florida's Dontrelle Willis.

First, let's be real, Maroth is really only our 3rd-5th best pitcher, depending on the day. Without him, we still have 2 lefties in our rotation, which is more than most teams aside from the dreadful Royals. We also have Wil Ledezma in AAA, who is a lefty who started in the rotation last year. So let's not make it out like we are losing the best pitcher in baseball.

Now to the second point, those same radio shows have said that to get Willis (or somebody similar) we would likely have to part with rookie phenom Joel Zumaya, who is blowing hitters away in a setup role right now. (Obviously Justin Verlander is untouchable at this point) I argue that Zumaya should be untouchable too...and not just because he is a big part of our future...he is a huge part of our PRESENT. I'm all for making a move to bolster an already solid pitching staff, but not when it comes at the expense of our tremendously solid bullpen.

The final point of this relates to the first point, in that our biggest problem is not the need to replace a starting pitcher, it's to add a better bat to the lineup. The spots of LF and 3B should be the primary targets. Somebody left handed would be great too, but not very likely in the 3B column...although DH is a possibility. Craig Monroe, the current LF is decent, but would be better as a platoon player, replacement. Brandon Inge, the 3B, would be awesome as a super utility man. He could likely play OF, 2B, 3B and C. SS in a pinch wouldn't be a big stretch either. 1B would also be a possiblity. Basically he can play anywhere if necessary. By adding a solid bat to the lineup, you would shore up the lack of depth on the bench by moving Inge/Monroe to the bench, and add some great versatility to your lineup.

So far Dombrowski has been making a lot of great moves (many of them questioned by me when the happened...namely the Weaver trade, signing Kenny Rogers...). Let's hope he doesn't make a knee-jerk reaction to the Maroth injury and trade Zumaya away.