Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Weathering the storm

I decided to go to Northville Downs for Belmont Day, primarily to see how the action was in the poker room on one of the major racing days, and a secondary goal was to avoid betting too much on horses from the comfort of my own home. Unfortunately what followed was a disaster of near epic proportions.
First on the horses, I still bet a decent amount on the early races, putting a lot of money into 2 separate races where the favorites ran well and I lost a good chunk of change. Then finally comes a race that I didn't put much into, and ends up paying over $300 for a $1 trifecta, with only horses that I liked, yet somehow I managed to miss the race. I most likely missed it because I was trying to bet horses and poker at the same time, and kept going back and forth between the table and the voucher machine.

Hand #1: Playing without a plan

It was a straddled pot to $4 by the button, and I was playing with about $325 at this point. There were at least 2 callers, so I just decided to call with 88. One more caller and then a young aggressive guy who at this point respected my game, but had been raising limpers quite liberally from late position raised to $25. The first callers folded, and when it got to me, I didn't particular like any of my options. Folding was not really an option against his range of hands, but I didn't really like calling either, and not having any initiative in the hand, as I was likely to face a sizeable flop bet, a flop which was likely to miss me. I decided to re-raise to $75, however I did this without much of a plan on what I was going to do for the rest of the hand. He pretty quickly shoved all-in for $225, leaving me with a decision. In the end I felt that his range included AK and AQ, and a few underpairs to my 8's, along with overpairs, and given that range, I felt that the pot odds justified my call. He had 99, and the board missed me. He said he was only afraid of TT and JJ as he knew I wouldn't limp a big pair behind a few limpers already. I'm not positive that's true given his penchant for raising limpers in LP, but it's a reasonable assumption.

Hand #2: Getting in against overpairs, the theme continues

Pot was straddled for $5 from the button, and after 2 callers I raised to $35 with TT. The button then shoved for $62, and I had a trivial call. He rolled over AA, and I was way behind again. Fortunately for me I flopped a T, and my hand held up for a suckout, albeit a small one.

Hand #3: A hand I wasn't involved in, but for context

There were a few limpers, and then the button, a loose spewy player raised to 15, leaving himself 65 behind. There were 2 callers, and the CO , a white haired middle aged guy who had been playing aggressively (Whitey for short) called, saying "I feel a suckout coming." Flop was 987 rainbow, and folded around to Whitey who seemingly randomly decided to bet 45. The button shoved for his 63, and then the tight player who works at the golf course smooth called the 63, leaving himself 125 behind. This looked extremely strong to me, like a set. The other limper then shoved all-in for about 200, then Whitey shoved all-in, then the golf course guy called all-in as well. They rolled the hands over and Whitey had JT for the nuts, golf course guy had T9 for a pair and open ender, and the other limper had T6 for the flopped 2nd nuts. The button didn't turn his hand over. The board ran out with a 7 and a low card, and Whitey swept the entire pot.

Hand #4: The very next hand

After 3 bustouts we are playing 6 handed. Whitey limps UTG, young guy on the button makes it 10, I 3bet to 30 with QQ (I have 3 bet the young guy a few times today), and then Whitey makes it 100 kinda forcefully. When he did this he was still stacking his chips from the previous hand. The one thing that I couldn't get past was that it didn't make sense for him to limp re-raise, especially short handed. After picking up a big pot like that, players will tend to play more loose and more aggressively, so I didn't see a good reason for why he would do that with AA or KK. I decided to shove for 250 and he went into the tank. This was immediately good news, as he obviously didn't have aces. He started saying "Why would you think so long with aces, etc....". Finally he called and rolled over KK, and I missed in the large pot.

Hand #5: Finally aces!

Here is the hand discussion on 2+2:

Relevant stacks and reads:
BB - Me (250)
SB (65) - Regular in the room, he has already dusted off 1.5 buyins with loose mostly passive play.
BTN (325) - I haven't seen him before, and he has been only at the table a few minutes. He has been running good, but I haven't seen a lot from him. From my limited experience so far, he seems slightly above average (though average is pretty bad). He looks to be of Indian descent.

An early position player limps, the button limps behind, the SB completes, and I raise to 17 with AsAc. EP folds, the Indian button calls, and the SB calls.

(Pot: 53) - Flop QdJh8d. SB shoves for his last 48. My thinking here is that I am rarely behind the SB. He likely has a Q, a pair and a draw, or just a random draw. I decide to just call, as I am not ready to commit $250 to this board. While I feel this is exploitable by a good player, I felt that the only way the Indian raises me is if he has me beat. I'm ok with giving him the 3-1 odds he is getting for a draw at this point. My plan is to shove a "blank" turn.

(Pot: 188) - Turn Tc. I check, and button bets 100. I disgustingly fold and the SB rolls over Td4d for a draw, and the Indian has J9 for the turned straight.

The river is a Ks, giving me what would have been the nuts for a nice kick in the dick.

Hand #6: The final insult

Despite all of the above, I still feel like I was playing alright, so I rebought up to $200. I limped 76 in EP, and we saw a family flop. Flop was A63 rainbow. It's checked around to the young kid in the CO bets 15, the Indian again the button calls, and it comes to me. I am pretty sure I am beat here, and while I could call and draw for my 2 pair or trips, the two pair fills a 54 draw. I believe the CO would have raised with any ace here, so I am not giving him credit for anything. I think the button likely has a weak ace. I decide to check raise to 65, as this is how I would play a two pair type hand. The CO folds as expected and the Indian calls after thinking for a few seconds. The turn is a J, and I decide I have to follow through now. I shove for 135 and he tanks for about 30 seconds and calls. I miss on the river and roll over my cards, and he turns over A9. I didn't he was good, but I sure didn't think he would call that much with a marginal ace. The funny thing is that if I play the hand in that manner, I have the best hand 90% of the time, yet he managed to find the 10% (or less) time that I didn't have the best hand.

So another 3+ buy-in loss. Coupled with a 3 buy-in loss 2 sessions ago, which sandwiched a 1 buy-in win, and I am on a bit of a cold streak. My hourly rate is still clicking at about $40 per hour for the last 7.5 months, but this was certainly a painful day.

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