Monday, April 19, 2010

A little Derby "belt tightening"

With the Kentucky Derby trip just 12 days away, I felt that I needed to do a little bit of horse handicapping to get back into the swing of things...a belt tightening of sorts. It was a damn good thing that I did.

I ran up to Northville Downs to get a copy of the Daily Racing form, and then headed back home to bet from the comfort of my office on Twinspires.com. My plan was to bet primarily Keeneland, as that has been my bread and butter in the past year, and also to bet on occasional races at other tracks if there was a full field that interested me. After hitting my first race for $170 profit, I slipped back down to around even. It was the 5th race at Pimlico, a 5 furlong turf 25K claimer. I put together what I thought was going to be a big Superfecta ticket, but when I tried to bet it I found that the minimum bet on Supers was $1, instead of the 10 cents that I planned. Instead I placed a small exacta bet. At post time, one of the horses I liked broke free near the gate for a jaunt around the track. He was subsequently scratched, and they took several minutes before re-loading the gate. In that time, I decided to put together a large trifecta ticket (cost me $100 for the base $1 bet). This was primarily because upon elimination of a horse that I pegged as a potential 2nd placer, it made my ticket more affordable.

Down the stretch I had the winner, but was cursing the 50-1 shot that was streaking for 2nd place. As the race finished I scanned over my bets, and with great pleasure I realized I had him. The odds were 9/2, 55-1, 25-1. At that point I realized that I had drilled a monster. When the payback came back, it was $3200+ for the tri, plus the exacta as well.






For a little while after that, it was difficult to concentrate, so I took care of some mundane tasks like laundry and dishes. A short while later I bet another race at Pimlico. This one was a bottom of the barrel 5000 claimer, going 5.5 furlongs. A horse I really liked was about 8-1 (the eventual winner, went off at a little more than 5-1). I also didn't really like the favorite at all. The race set up beautifully, with the horse I loved streaking to the lead in the stretch to win going away. I was pretty sure I had the race hit, I just couldn't tell who finished 4th. After the replay, I knew I had it....this time by it I mean the trifecta for $2, and the superfecta for $1. The payouts came back way better than expected, with the tri returning $385, despite it being 3 of the top 4 favorites. The super returned an awesome $1363, again without a horse over 10-1.






Following that I lost a few races, and won a few races, turning an excellent profit on the afternoon. This not only significantly increased the Derby bankroll, it also helped the confidence level. The one thing I have to say to slightly temper the enthusiasm. The payouts on both of the races was beyond what I was expecting, and the races came in close to my ideal combination.

Can't wait for 2 weekends from now, for what is sure to be a ridiculous time with it being a bachelor party and the Derby.

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