Oakland Hills - take 2

Just like last time, we had a shotgun start. This time we started on 16, the signature hole, and a very difficult one at that.

16: Drilled driver down the left-center of the fairway. Wedge to the front right of the green. First putt about 4 feet by, missed the comebacker when I felt that I hit a good putt, just missed it low. 3 putts for BOGIE

17: Long par 3 playing about 215, uphill and into the wind. Chokedown 3 wood to pin high left of the green. Shank a flop shot, then flop onto the green and lipped out the 8 footer. DOUBLE BOGIE.

18: Drilled driver down the LH side of the fairway. Drilled another 3 wood from 235 to just left of the green. Flop shot to less than a foot. BIRDIE

1: Good drive down the LH side. Very good wedge to a tucked pin to 15 feet. First putt 4 feet by. Missed comebacker as the putt broke opposite of my read. After I missed it, the caddie told me the putt breaks the other way (no shit!). BOGIE

2: Snap hooked driver left (start of a trend) just short of a bunker. From a bad lie, chunked an 8 iron into the middle of the fairway. 7 iron to 10 feet, and just missed the birdie. PAR

3: Medium length par 3 playing into the wind with a cross-wind. Good 5 iron gets blown to the right pin high. Very good flop shot to 8 feet, but missed the putt. BOGIE

4: Hooked driver down the LH side deep into a fairway bunker. 170 yards in I was only able to hit a wedge to the RH side of the fairway. 40 yard wedge went off the back of the green about 10 feet away. Putted to 2 feet. BOGIE

5: Best drive of the day down RH center of the fairway. 7 iron to about 15 feet. Birdie putt just missed on the edge. PAR

6: Tees were up, playing only 300. 3 wood just barely cleared the LH bunkers and barely went into the rough on the RH side. 60 yard lob wedge to 10 feet, and made birdie putt. BIRDIE

7: Kinda skied a drive down LH side of fairway. 6 iron to about 30 feet. Another disappointing 3 putt. BOGIE

8: Pull hooked drive down LH side. 3 wood from 240 uphill left 25 yards short (and way short sided. Hit a really bad and stupid flop shot, leaving it in the bunker just left of the green....ball was plugged in the bunker, with only 5-10 feet of green to work with. Good shot to get out ran all the way to opposite side of the green. 2 putts from there. BOGIE

9: Shot of the day. Playing 210, into the teeth of the wind. Choked down on 3 wood and knocked 2 feet above the hole. Before I hit my putt, another member of my group hit a 4 footer on my same line about 30 feet by. Make the putt for my third birdie of the day. BIRDIE

10: Pulled drive down the left side into the rough. From a bad lie, knocked a 7 iron onto the green about 30 feet short. Another 3 putt (they are starting to run together, I don't remember the details of it). BOGIE

11: Totally skied a driver into the fairway. 3 iron uphill from 200 pin high in the RH rough. Flopped next shot about 8 feet above the hole (intentionally above the hole to avoid going off the green). Missed the par putt low. BOGIE

12: Driver into the LH rough (somehow between 2 bunkers). 3 wood pulled left into the rough under some trees, but with a good angle in. 60 yard wedge to 15 feet. Ho-hum 2 putt for par. PAR

13: Into the wind with a cross wind, 3 iron pin high in the RH rough. Terrible lie with an impossible shot to the pin tucked in back, ball rolls down to the front of the green. Good 2 putt for BOGIE.

14: Tried to cut a drive and blew it way right. Caught a break and had a clearing between some trees. Punched a 3 iron from 200 just short of the LH greenside bunker. Pin was up front, and green is heavily sloped front to back. Got too cute with a flop and left it in the fairway a few yards short of the green. Made the putt from off the green (might have gone 20 feet by if missed). PAR

15: Needing a birdie to break 80, hooked drive way left into the trees. Wedge caught the top of a tree and stopped near the trunk. Abbreviated backswing, knocked it to 10 feet. Missed the par putt. BOGIE

I really struggled with my driver for the last 10 holes, and almost the last 14 save for one good shot. Fortunately almost all of them were snap hooks to the left, so I could manage them. My irons were still solid coming in, but it was definitely a chore. The wind was howling for most of the round, up to about 30mph, so all in all an 81 is a very good score.

Having only 4 pars in a round is odd, but sneaking 3 birdies in always helps the final result. Too many 3 putts, but that is excusable given the difficulty and speed of the greens.

As always, I would love to have another shot at the course.

2009 Kentucky Derby preview

My opinions are subject to change between now and the Derby based on odds, the pace scenario, post positions, and the track bias that day.

All of these are listed in order of Mike Watchmakers projected Derby odds:

I Want Revenge (9-2) – Got beat twice in a row by Pioneerof the Nile out West, so came to Aqueduct and through two monster races under two entirely different sets of circumstances, including his last race where he was nearly left in the starting gate and spotted the field 5 lengths. Big contender, especially given him showing he can win from on the pace or off the pace.

Quality Road (5-1) – Two straight huge races in FLA, both over 110 beyers, including a win over high touted Dunkirk. Figures to be close to what is likely not going to be a very hot pace. My concern on him is his ability to get the mile and a quarter with only 2 routes on his resume. Check the dosage here.

Dunkirk (6-1) – Lightly raced and looks full of talent. Sire is Unbridled’s Song, and I remember his Derby, where he was clear at the top of the stretch but couldn’t hold on. I think he is one that will make a move on the turn and then fade/flatten out in the end.

Friesan Fire (8-1) – Looks and feels like a Derby winner to me. Has 7 races under his belt, but will have 6 weeks off leading to the Derby. Drew clear in the Louisiana Derby and I think he may be sitting on a big race come Derby day.

Pioneerof the Nile (8-1) – If you like I Want Revenge, you have to like him, and at a better price. His Beyers are short, but Revenge made a big step forward going from synthetic to dirt, and it can be projected that Pioneer will as well. His running style may hurt with a slower pace than most Derby’s expected, but his last race showed him staying very close to the pace. If a hot pace is expected, he could move forward even more.

Chocolate Candy (15-1) - Just a length behind Pioneer in his last start, and the lack of pace in Santa Anita likely hurt him, but looking at his running line, I just don’t think he’s good enough. May be good enough for 3rd-4th.

Desert Party (15-1) – The more highly touted of the Goldophin pair, hard to figure with all of his 3 year old campaign being in UAE. I’ll have to compare his ratings to other horses to get a comparable Beyer figure. But until Goldophin shows they can get it done in the Derby, inclined to avoid.

Hold Me Back (20-1) – Would be helped by a live pace, and if the pace completely collapses he could prove to be this year’s Giacamo. I don’t think it’s likely to happen, but he could grab a piece. I also feel he could be sitting on a 105 beyer. I smell a potential 3rd placer here.

Musket Man (20-1) – 5 wins in 6, but top Beyer figure of 98, and that was in a weak Illinois Derby field, a race that I watched. Running style suits Derby winning style, but I just don’t think he’s fast enough.

Papa Clem (20-1) – Profile looks similar to Friesan Fire, however, Friesan Fire hammered him the only time they raced together. Papa’s last race was an all out win over a horse that suffered a major injury too. Although he looks like a decent longshot, I am guessing the Derby chase has taken a lot out of him. Looking past.

General Quarters (30-1) – Difficult horse to figure. Ran a bigger race in the Blue Grass in very slow fractions, near the front end. His other big race, the G3 Davis was also in very slow fractions. While the pace will not be ultra fast, I expect it to be 23 and 46 and change to the half. I also question his ability to go the distance.

Mr. Hot Stuff (30-1) – Can’t argue with the lineage, and the ownership knows what they are doing. I don’t think he’s fast enough to win…but he looks to be cut in the mold of Denis of Cork (last years 3rd placer), and I am definitely playing him on my tickets for 3rd and 4th.

Regal Ransom (30-1) – The other half of the Goldophin group. Maybe he liked the extra distance his last race in finally being able to get past Desert Party. I again question the Goldophin angle, but like the price on him far more than his stable mate.

Square Eddie (30-1) – This one will put in an honest effort, but simply isn’t fast enough, and will need a career effort to hit the board. I may play as 4th if at all.

West Side Bernie (30-1) – How can you argue with 30-1 on a horse coming off a 101 beyer? I’m not sure of the lineage and ability to make the distance though. He also couldn’t beat I Want Revenge despite the hellish trip for him. Still, the price intrigues me, and of the long shots, he’s the one that has shown the most promise so far.

Win Willy (30-1) – Sire is a Derby winner. This one seems to like to close from the clouds, which is normally a bad idea in a 20 horse derby field, and is even a worse idea in a slower pace. Still, you have to believe that he will be making an honest run late, and could easily hit the board. Possible win candidate if the pace is faster, and early speed is having a problem holding.

Charitable Man (50-1) – Very lightly raced, threw two big races as a 2 year old (93,96 beyers) and a clunker in the Blue Grass. It’s very possible he didn’t like the Polytrack, and he also could have needed that race. Based on his 2 year old ability, he has every right to throw a 100+ beyer this race. If he goes off anywhere near 25-1 he is worth playing.

Jeranimo (50-1) – I have no idea on this horse, never saw his PP’s.

Mafaaz (80-1) – I can’t find his PP’s, but I remember looking at them and seeing low 80 beyers. He made the field by winning some stupid race, but probably has little to no shot of doing anything here.

Advice (not listed) – Showed a huge closing move in the Lexington with a slow pace, yielding a career Beyer by 11 pts. Will need to move forward another 15 points to win, which isn’t likely with 2 weeks between starts. 4th maybe.

Flying Private (not listed) – Son of a Derby winner, a 700K purchase and trained by a several time Derby winner. But that hasn’t translated into the races. Career best Beyer of 94, simply isn’t good enough to contend.

Mine that Bird (not listed) – Zero chance.

Summer Bird (not listed) – Late bloomer as 1st race was March 1st. Huge closing move to get 3rd in the Arkansas Derby. Unlikely to get much of a pace to run at. Could be rounding into form around Belmont time. Candidate to hit the board if he runs.

People are idiots

I have mentioned this many times before. It bears mentioning again. People are idiots. Flat out morons. Now this isn't going to be a political rant, just something I have said to friends many times before, but finally deciding I need to actually write this shit down.

On the way in to work today at about 6:45am, one of the traffic lights was not functioning properly (Telegraph and Ford Rd.). I approach the light with a sense of dread at what kind of douchebaggery is about to unfold. The scene does not disappoint, as one set of cars that actually patiently awaited their turn, followed by 1-2 more cars following those come barreling through the light, despite not waiting their turn.

This kind of behavior can only lead to two conclusions:
1) They don't understand the concept of a 4 way stop....however, this is quickly dismissed as they seem to handle stop signs in residential neighborhoods with at least a mild degree of understanding as to what they mean.
2) They believe that they don't have to wait, and decide to just punch the gas. This is the most troubling, and makes me yearn for to have a shitty car and no fear of law enforcement or increased insurance rates, so that I could just plow into them.

I have seen this scenario unfold EVERY time I have approached a traffic light that is not working, and I can instantly feel my blood pressure climb 10-20 clicks.

So what conclusion can we draw from this story? Simply and to the point...people are idiots.

Engaged

Yesterday night (2/26/09)I got engaged to Victoria, my girlfriend of more than 3 and a half years. No date has been set, but it will likely be summer of 2010.

More details can be found on my facebook page.

Another Greektown trip on the off Friday

I have had the itch to go play some live poker for several weeks now, but my off Friday was a perfect opportunity. I opted for Greektown, since I didn't have a lot of cash and just wanted to play 1/2. I arrived around 9:45am, and there were only two tables open. The idiots that run the place didn't open a third table until 10:30am, despite the act that they had a dealer available and a full list. When they finally called the game, my name suddenly disappeared from the list. Despite that, I sat down at the table anyways, without a problem.

My first major hand of the day was about an orbit in. Despite the table starting fresh, a player at the other end of the table was acting very steamed. He had raised pre-flop to about 17-20 on 3-4 hands in a row. In this hand, he was UTG and straddled to 5. EP raised to 10, one player called, and I raised in the CO to 50 with AsKs. Folds to UTG (steamer) who moves all-in for about 150. Folds to me and I quickly call. He shows KdQd. The flop is a K with 2 spades, and my hand holds up and I am ahead early. At this time, one of the players comments that I made a pretty big re-raise with AK (obviously most live players aren't accustomed to 3 betting "light").


The very next hand, I pick up AK again. EP raises to 10, one player calls, and I decide to flat this time with AK. The rest fold, and the flop comes ATx. First two players check, and I bet 20 (in hindsight too small of a bet). The original raiser calls, and the two of us see the turn. The turn is another T, he checks and I check. The river is an incosequential rag, and he bets 40, I call and see QT and a good deal of my profits are gone.

I am up about 50 when this hand occurs. A player raises to 6 and after a caller, I call with 77. One of the blinds call and the flop comes 865. The original bettor bets 20, I call, and the blind calls. The turn is a 2, and both players check to me. I bet 50, and then the BB goes all-in for 104. The other player folds and I call knowing that I am behind, and he shows an oddly played TT. The river bricks and I lose the pot and am suddenly stuck.

A little while later, there is a table full of limpers to me and I raise to 16, and everybody folds to the button, who calls. He is a player that has tangled a bit with me up to now, but never taken it too far past the flop. The flop comes KJ3 with two diamonds. I make a smallish bet of 20, and he raises to 100. At this poin there is only one hand I am afraid of, and that's KJ (I guess 33 is possible too...but not very likely IMO). I think for about 20 seconds and then shove for 180. He starts thinking, and at this point I know that I have him. He calls and has K9, and my hand holds, and I am back in the black. He mentions something about it being a good call and that he was putting a move on me. I am not afraid of folding an overpair or TPTK if I think I am beaten, but this wasn't one of those cases. As a general rule, folding these type of hands is bad poker at 1/2.

An orbit or so later, I decide to straddle for 5. A few players call the straddle, and when it gets back to me I raise to 30 with AJo. The big stack (about 500, covers me) in the CO calls and the SB (about 135 before the hand) calls. The flop comes Jh6h2x rainbow, and the SB immediately shoves all-in for about 105. I take my time to debate the best play. Ultimately I determine that I am going to take my chances that he doesn't have a set, and decide to raise, to make the bigger stack pay if he decides to come along with a flush draw. I shove out two stacks of chips (about 250ish) and the big stack folds. The BB sheepishly says "Nice call, I was stealing." and shows K6, so he still has 5 outs. Fortunately he misses and I pick up a very nice pot.

At this point I am rolling, and have been very active. A few players limp to me and I decide to limp KdJd from the button. The flop Kx8d5d, all check to me and I bet 10. The BB and another player call. The turn is the 7d. All check to me again and I bet 30. The SB raises to 100, the other player debates and folds (what he later told me was 87 for 2 pair). I am fairly certain that I have the best hand, despite the possiblility of the nut flush and straight flush, that's a chance I am willing to take. So I move in and he calls another 80 or so with QdTd, drawing stone dead. The river is another 8, which would have lost me the hand to the player who folded 87. Fortunately the SB check-raising kept the other player in the pot.

Right before my BB, I take a bathroom break, when I get back I post from the cutof with Th2h, and I see the flop 5-6 handed. The flop is Kh9h2x, and one of the limpers bets 10, one player calls, I call (probably should have raised here) and the BB calls. The turn is another heart, and they check to me, I bet 20, and the BB check-raises to 40....all fold to me. He has been reasonably tight, and never gotten out of line post flop, but he could have a smaller flush, so I debate and call. The river is a blank, and the BB bets 60. I go in the tank, and say "I'm not in the habit of folding flushes." but I get no response. Finally my curiousity gets the better of me and he shows Ah4h for the nuts. I know that I should have found a fold on the river, but I didn't have enough info to distinguish whether he had a baby flush or a bigger one. Too bad because it's a hand I never would have played had I not been a poster.

I am starting to mentally prepare myself to leave, up about $250. I straddle again, and one player calls. The BB (fairly transparent player with about 150 or so) raises to 15. I make a loose call with KTo, and the limper calls as well. The flop comes Kxx with 2 clubs, and the BB checks to me. I make a bet of 30, and the limper folds, and the BB calls. By him calling I think he either has a middling pair or a club draw. The turn is another K, he checks to me and I decide to just get it in, and put him in for about 100. He calls fairly quickly and as AcJc. He misses and I regain some momentum.

Finally, the clincher hand, and one of my few live suckouts. UTG raises to 7, UTG+1 calls, 1 more caller, and I close action out of the BB with 54. The flop is 542, UTG checks, UTG+1 (very laggy player who has been playing a ton of pots) bets 10, BTN (tight player) raises to 20, and I make it 60. UTG+1 goes all-in for 120. The BTN debates (asks if i can re-raise if he calls) and folds (he later says he had 77). I call, still thinking I could be ahead of him and he shows 63 for the nuts. Despite his loose nature, I wasn't putting 63 in his UTG+1 raise calling range. The board comes 25 for me to suck out in a nice pot.

A few orbits later, despite being on a nice run and the table starting to become fun, I call it a day, as I promised Victory I would be leaving 30-45 minutes before I actually did. All in all, a fun day with a tidy profit of $583.

Super Bowl 43 Notes

Just some random musings on yesterday's Super Bowl.

* For the first time in recent memory, I didn’t have a bet on the game. Not even a square. Yes, I am disappointed in myself.

* Tomlin electing to kick the field goal at 4th and goal from the one foot line was a bad decision. Even worse was Madden saying that he was playing the percentages, and Tomlin was right. I beg to differ. The expected value of a field goal try is near 3.0 pts. The expected value of going for the TD is debatable, but for all things to be equal, Pitt would have to have a success percentage of 43%. I would hazard a guess that even the worst teams can succeed in this play 60% of the time, and a great team like Pitt is probably damn near 80%. This doesn’t even take into account that if you do fail, having the ball at your own 1 yard line has got to have a negative expected value.

* Larry Fitzgerald is a beast.

* The number of close replays that there were was unbelievable. Fortunately, I feel the referee made the right decision on every replay.

*I can’t say the same for the rest of the officiating. While I was happy that there were no phantom pass interference calls (hard to be when almost every pass is complete), the holding calls were dis-proportionate against Arizona. The roughing the passer call was just plain bad on Zona as well.

* That being said about replays, I can't believe they didn't take the time to closely review the final play for the Cardinals, when Warner was sacked and fumbled. It was at least close enough to an incomplete pass to warrant a second look, especially given how important it was. But the NFL never ceases to amaze.

* The holding in the end zone which caused the safety was bad in my opinion. I almost felt bad for Pitt when Zona was ahead, as I hate to see a team lose a game no less a championship on a bad call, but then I remembered that the Steelers were completely handed Super Bowl 40 here in Detroit. This was the game I had my biggest gambling loss ever on, and will never get over how much bullshit there was. I am now recognizing Pittsburgh as having 5 Super Bowls, and not the 6 that everyone else recognizes. I also recognize Seattle as having one “moral” championship for their “victory” that day.

* I was also hoping that the game would go to OT, and the team winning the flip would march down the field and score, forcing more outrage at the NFL overtime rules. Yes, I am a cynical bastard.

* It always blows my mind that teams with awesome passing attacks like Arizona don’t run no-huddle almost all of the time. They got into such a rhythm with it, and were unstoppable. Coaches are such pussies because it exposes your defense, but when your offense has such an edge, and your defense is anywhere near adequate, you want to exploit that edge as much as possible, even if it creates a deficiency elsewhere.

* The INT at the end of the half was an unbelievable play in terms of it’s impact. It’s hard to think of a bigger single play, happening in such a critical moment of a Championship game.

Basketball

For the last 3-4 years I have been playing basketball every Thursday night between October and April. We rent a gym for that span, and play with the same core group of 12 guys. Lately it has been very difficult to be motivated to play. First, the level of play has deteriorated. Second, ever since my tooth incident, I don't play the same kind of game.

When I drive the lane, or am defending, I tend to shy away from contact, despite the fact that I am now wearing a mouthguard courtesy of the tooth injury. I'm sure similar things happen to people who suffer major injuries (ACL tears, achilles injuries), but this has been my only "major" injury so I this is a new experience for me. Couple that with my lagging physical condition (I don't have the speed/quickness that I used to have, I can't jump as high as I used to, my wind is significantly reduced), and it is very difficult to get out of the house to go.

In the past I used to be excited to playing, actually looking forward to it thoughout the week, but it has mostly felt like a job. I am toying with the idea of becoming a sub next season, just so that I am not obligated to play anymore, and can pick and choose when I play (to some degree).

Gas prices - December 2008

Just for my own little log...gas prices are $1.42 at the station by my house.

Another poker trip to Windsor

Me and Victory headed over to Windsor for some more fun poker action on Friday/Saturday. In between the poker, we were able to play some Pai Gow (big loser), eat a nice expensive meal, spend some time in the hot tub and pool, and relax.

Hand #1: Set over set turns into quads at 1/2

I had slowly burned off about $40-50 when this hand came up. A few players limped, and I limped along with 33. The flop came a beautiful Qh3h2x. Checked to the 20 year old kid 2 to my right, who led out $5. The guy to my right called, and I raised to $25. All folded to the kid, who called, and the first caller folded.

The turn was the other 3, giving me quads, and the kid led $25 into me again. The only other hand I had previously seen was similar, with him continually donking into players, despite being raised on an earlier street (that hand he showed up with top pair, good kicker). I didn’t want to lose him, so I made a smallish raise to $50, which he called.

The river was some other inconsequential card (didn’t make the board any more scary for a top pair type hand), and he led $50 into me again. At this point he only had another $50 or so behind, so I raised and he called, showing 22 for a cooler. I can’t believe it took until the river to get the money in, despite me raising him on every post-flop street.

Hand #2: Gin flop at 1/2

One player raised UTG to $12, and 2 players called (including the kid from hand 1). I called with TT, and almost the whole table called behind, so 7 went to the flop for $12 apiece. Flop came Ts7x7s, and the original raiser checked, another checked, and then the kid from hand #1 bet out $15 (a tiny bet relative to the pot), I decided to just call and invite others to come along. A short stack in the SB called as well, and the three of us went to the turn.

The turn was a 6x (98 just got a straight), the SB checked, the kid led out $25. I again just called, and now the SB moved all-in (obviously a 7) for $59 total. The kid called the $34 extra, and now I woke up, announcing a raise. Again wanting to bring him along with what I deemed a lock hand, I re-raised another $50, which he called.

The river was a J, and disappointingly he checked. I moved in for his last $100 into the $400 pot or so and shockingly he folded. I showed my full house to win the main pot, and the kid triumphantly grabbed his cards out of the muck, showing KK???? Yeah, nice fold kid….you should have made it last street, or at least realized somebody was in there with a 7.

Hand #3: Stupid hand at 1/2

This hand wasn’t all that interesting, just found it funny. I limped after a bunch of limpers with Ah4h, and the flop came Q92 (no hearts), all checked to me so I took a $6 stab. One of the early limpers (young douchebag in a knit cap called). The turn was a J, and he checked, and I decided to take another stab, betting $15….which he called. Now I am done with the hand. Then a T came on the river, making any 9 or K a straight. When checked to, I decided to take one more stab and bet $30. He thought for about 15 seconds and called, I tabled my hand and he showed J2 for a turned 2 pair. Then he starts lecturing me that “he would have folded if I bet 10, but he was calling 30”. I told him, congrats, because I would have bet 30 with a K also. He kept repeating the lecture, and finally I just told him “Shut-up dude, you won the hand, nice job.”

Hand #4: Huge welcome to the 2/5 Table:

My first hand was JJ, which I took down a 3 way pot on the flop with a bet of $60. My second hand I pick up AdKd, the lady to my right limps (with 350 behind), and I raise to 25. I get called in like 5 spots, and the flop comes Jx3d2d. After being checked to, I decide to check, with the hopes of getting the last raise in, and potentially take it down without a showdown, or get a free card. The Asian guy to my left with about $325 bets $100 (more than I was hoping), all fold to the lady on my right who calls the $100. I then raise to $300 (thinking this shows a hell of a lot of strength, and I have seen live players make folds like this before). The Asian folds and then the woman declares all-in, which I have basically already done for her, and she shows KJo, so I have a few less outs then I had hoped, but it’s really not all that bad for me.

Things look bleaker when the turn is an offsuit 6, but the Jd falls off on the river for a huge pot.

Hand #5: First time feeling bad on a hand in a while

A bit later, I open UTG with 7d6d to $20, and as is typical I am called in 5 places, including by the guy right after me, who I had been bullshitting with for a bit and seemed like a legitimately nice guy. The flop came A66, and I immediately knew we were shaping up for a big pot. I led out $60, as there is no reason to slowplay here. The guy I mentioned after me just called, and the rest folded. He didn’t seem like the type to play a 6 for a raise, so I was fairly certain he had an A.

The turn was another 6, giving me quads. Now I obviously knew he didn’t have a 6, and continued firing, by betting out $125. He called, and that’s when I started to feel bad for the poor guy, knowing that he was running into a certain disaster.

The river was inconsequential and I moved him in for his last $200 or so (I said I felt bad, but it’s still poker), he called after a few seconds, and I quietly turned over my cards and collected the pot, and just like that, I was up $950 at the table in a matter of 30 minutes.

Hand #6: A tough spot with QQ Hand posting on 2+2

Villian has a little over 500, and I cover. I have been at the table about an hour and am up nearly 2 buy-ins, once showing an aggressively played nut flush draw, and the other time quads. The only action I have seen from villian is once calling a lot of money on a flush draw, but he seems to be the type not afraid to make a move, and also appears to be a regular.

He opens UTG to 15, and gets 2 callers. I have QQ in the CO and make it 75. He flat calls, and the other two callers fold.

Flop is 852r. He check-calls my bet of 125.

Turn is a 9, putting 2 to a suit out, and he slowly gathers his chips and moves-in for 320.

After debating I opted to fold face up. I felt that there were was a possibility he had a bigger overpair than mine (though he likely would have raised the flop), potentially a connecting hand that made 2 pair or a straight, or a set that woke up on the turn, not wanting me to check behind.

After folding he showed 87, for a pair and a gutshot straight draw. I'm surprised he made a move like that, as he had no reason to believe that I could fold an overpair there, which was exactly what I was representing. This type of thinking is exactly why I folded in the first place.

Hand #7: AK in a tough river spot Hand posting on 2+2

Villain has about 900, and I cover. Only hand I have seen of villain is a pretty straight-forwardly played set where he got a full double-up. I did see one of his buddy going broke on the turn with TPGK on the turn, not sure it necessarily relates but it was some information that I had.

One player limps, and I pop it to 25 with AKo (no hearts), villain right after me calls, and the limper calls.

Flop is AxQx3h. I bet 50 and he calls.

Turn is the 6h. I check, he bets 75, I think and call. I guess this was pot control, but it probably makes my hand pretty transparent.

River is the Kh. I opted to check-call, as I expected him to bet somewhere in the neighborhood of $150. After a few seconds, he bet $300, which was a slight overbet and way more than I anticipated. It didn't seem to fall in line with the play of the rest of the hand, and smelled really bad. I was pretty sure I was beat, but I wasn't sure how. I almost found the fold button, but in the end I made the call, and he showed AhJh.

In the end, I think there are better ways to play the hand, though without folding the river, I got away from it as cheap as possible. If I had it to do over again, I would bet the turn, and then bet/fold the river. I just don't see most 2/5 players being able to raise that river with anything less than a flush there. 2 pair will call, and a set may even call to be safe because of how deep we are, even though it's a fairly weak play. I'm fairly certain it would have turned out worse for me had I followed that plan here, but in the long run I think it's the best plan of attack.

I just have to make sure that I follow my gut instinct and make those big folds.

Oh well, enough rambling, if I get a chance I'll "wordsmith" this so it makes better sense, as at this point it's just getting my thoughts down on "paper".

Bah

I decided to play my first online multi-table poker tournament in a while on Saturday night. For some reason, I had a good feeling about it. It seems that when I am playing my best cash poker, I am playing poorly at tournaments, and when I am playing my worst cash poker, I am playing well in tournaments. Since I have had a bad month or so at the cash table (including one of only two live losses in the last year or so), playing a mid-size buy-in tourney was an obvious way to come back.

I decided to play the 7pm Pokerstars $100 buy-in, and the 8pm $27.50 tourney. In the 7pm I started off slowly, leaking about 500 of my starting chip count of 3K, and then about 90 minutes into it I ran into a big (and lucky) hand. Blinds of 75/150, I had about 2700, UTG raises to 450, and then 5 players call, and then the SB calls as well. That leaves me getting some ridiculous sum of 250 to call into a pot of 2500 or so. I have Qd7d, and debate the merits of all 3 options, moving in, calling and/or folding. I decide that moving in is likely go elicit at least one call, due to the especially juicy pot odds that I will be offering, and at the same time I can’t pass up 10-1 odds with a suited hand like that, so folding it out. After calling, the flop comes KT5, with two diamonds. I immediately move in for essentially a pot sized bet with my 2nd nut flush draw, and UTG moves in over the top of me, and the rest fold. UTG flopped a set of tens. The board runs out J9 to make me a straight, and I essentially triple up. Following that fortuitous hand, I maintain myself in the top 10 or so all the way into the money (top 72 got paid $192 at least). Mid-way through the money though, I start to go a little card dead, and the table is active, so I just sit and wait for a while, hoping to get an opportunity to start stealing or a big hand. Finally my chance comes around 25 players or so left, as the overactive chip leader opens, and I jam with 99. He calls with A5 and I hold up and am suddenly above average.

I am still sitting above average, when the two fateful hands come up. There are 16 players left, with a payjump from $460 to $590 coming at the next knockout (1st place is worth upwards of $11K). I don’t have a problem with my jam in hand 1 from the button. Both blinds are around 8-9 BB’s, and with the pot potentially adding 12% to my stack, moving in seems worth it. The BB instantly calls with what I consider a somewhat marginal hand for the situation, A4. I don’t fault it but I don’t like it either, as he is barely ahead of me best case, and could be way behind. If he were a little shorter stacked (about 25-30K) I could see it, but here I thought it was close, and ranging towards a fold.

PokerStars Game #22079560681: Tournament #119387997, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (2500/5000) - 2008/11/15 23:39:49 ET
Table '119387997 65' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Kucko06 (50006 in chips)
Seat 2: phins1013 (86156 in chips)
Seat 3: Steeser (72275 in chips)
Seat 4: REALLY STOOP (40018 in chips)
Seat 5: Jamieg1981 (43310 in chips)
Seat 6: moyave (179016 in chips)
Seat 7: Jurunasp (167946 in chips)
Seat 8: rusostreet (150267 in chips)
Kucko06: posts the ante 500
phins1013: posts the ante 500
Steeser: posts the ante 500
REALLY STOOP: posts the ante 500
Jamieg1981: posts the ante 500
moyave: posts the ante 500
Jurunasp: posts the ante 500
rusostreet: posts the ante 500
REALLY STOOP: posts small blind 2500
Jamieg1981: posts big blind 5000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Steeser [Jc Qh]
moyave: folds
Jurunasp: folds
rusostreet: folds
Kucko06: folds
phins1013: folds
Steeser: raises 45000 to 50000
REALLY STOOP: folds
Jamieg1981: calls 37810 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (7190) returned to Steeser
*** FLOP *** [Qc Ah 8s]
*** TURN *** [Qc Ah 8s] [5d]
*** RIVER *** [Qc Ah 8s 5d] [Kd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Jamieg1981: shows [Ad 4c] (a pair of Aces)
Steeser: shows [Jc Qh] (a pair of Queens)
Jamieg1981 collected 92120 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 92120 | Rake 0
Board [Qc Ah 8s 5d Kd]
Seat 1: Kucko06 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: phins1013 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Steeser (button) showed [Jc Qh] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 4: REALLY STOOP (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Jamieg1981 (big blind) showed [Ad 4c] and won (92120) with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: moyave folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Jurunasp folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: rusostreet folded before Flop (didn't bet)

So unfortunately I miss, and suddenly I am crippled, down to about 6 BB’s. So, of course, the very next hand, I pick up KK, and have a trivial shove. As expected, the initial opener calls, although he took a while despite his significant pot odds, telling me he wasn’t too fond of his situation.

PokerStars Game #22079573387: Tournament #119387997, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (2500/5000) - 2008/11/15 23:40:28 ET
Table '119387997 65' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Kucko06 (49506 in chips)
Seat 2: phins1013 (85656 in chips)
Seat 3: Steeser (28965 in chips)
Seat 4: REALLY STOOP (37018 in chips)
Seat 5: Jamieg1981 (92120 in chips)
Seat 6: moyave (178516 in chips)
Seat 7: Jurunasp (167446 in chips)
Seat 8: rusostreet (149767 in chips)
Kucko06: posts the ante 500
phins1013: posts the ante 500
Steeser: posts the ante 500
REALLY STOOP: posts the ante 500
Jamieg1981: posts the ante 500
moyave: posts the ante 500
Jurunasp: posts the ante 500
rusostreet: posts the ante 500
Jamieg1981: posts small blind 2500
moyave: posts big blind 5000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Steeser [Ks Kh]
Jurunasp: folds
rusostreet: folds
Kucko06: raises 7990 to 12990
phins1013: folds
Steeser: raises 15475 to 28465 and is all-in
REALLY STOOP: folds
Jamieg1981: folds
moyave: folds
Kucko06: calls 15475
*** FLOP *** [4s Th 2c]
*** TURN *** [4s Th 2c] [Js]
*** RIVER *** [4s Th 2c Js] [5s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Kucko06: shows [Tc Jh] (two pair, Jacks and Tens)
Steeser: shows [Ks Kh] (a pair of Kings)
Kucko06 collected 68430 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 68430 | Rake 0
Board [4s Th 2c Js 5s]
Seat 1: Kucko06 showed [Tc Jh] and won (68430) with two pair, Jacks and Tens
Seat 2: phins1013 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Steeser showed [Ks Kh] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 4: REALLY STOOP (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Jamieg1981 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: moyave (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Jurunasp folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: rusostreet folded before Flop (didn't bet)
So, of course I lose a hand that would have vaulted me back to average, despite being a big favorite, and miss out on a big payout at the final table.

The result of this hand of course made me go back and think about the previous hand, where I gave up most of my chips. Had I not lost/played the previous hand, I would have likely had enough chips to 3 bet the original raiser and take down the pot uncontested. But that’s just results oriented thinking. I realize that the first play was a reasonable aggressive play, that just didn’t work out.

Oh well, it’s always depressing to run late into a tourney only to fall short of the big money.

Heartland Poker tour qualifier

Greektown Casino is having their 2nd Heartland Poker tour event of the year starting on October 24th. It is a $1650 buy-in, with their last event drawing nearly 500 players. I went downtown to play a $340 qualifier, with the top 20% of the field receiving spots in the HPT Main Event.

The structure was reasonably good, with 10K chips, blinds starting at 100/100 and 30 minute levels. I started off very good, picking up a few hands early (44 flopped a set, got value from flop and turn), AK hit TPTK, flopped bottom two pair, as well as picking up some small pots. I felt I had good control over the table and knew what most of the players were doing. During that time there were a few eliminations, and they were replaced by better players. I also was starting to get the feeling that people weren’t respecting my pre-flop raises as much, since I was opening up a lot of pots, so for the next 30 minutes or so, I went somewhat card dead, and tightened up considerably over this time.

We reached level 4, the 300/600 blind level, with me at about 12.5K in chips (down from a high water mark of a little over 14K). UTG, an older man who I had played at the cash table for about an hour before the tournament jammed for 6K. In our time at the cash table, he had gone through about 2 buy-ins, most notably way overplaying hands like A4 and A5 pre-flop. He had also been very active in the tournament, as he had gotten down to around 2500 at one point. Back to the hand…I was pretty sure he didn’t need a big hand to jam at this point. I put his range at most aces that are AT or better, and all pairs up to about QQ. I had JJ and decided that it was a trivial call from the cut-off position, and the rest folded. He disappointingly had AK and I was racing for a pot of 13K. The board ran out XXXXA, with him drilling the ace on the river to double up and badly hurt me. I was down to about 6K now….which was not quite desperation, but nowhere near the 19K I would have had had I won the flip.

About an orbit later, I was down to 5K, and blinds were still 300/600. Two players limped to me for 600. I was 2 to the right of the button with A9o. I decided to shove, as the pot had 2100 in it already, and both limpers seemed weak. If I were to pickup this pot it would increase my stack by over 40%. One player folded, and then the button went into the tank. The button (with a stack of around 18K) is apparently a regular player, named Yoshi. In the time he was at the table, he did nothing that made me believe he was a nutjob. Obviously I knew that if I got called I was in very bad shape (or should have been…hint…foreshadowing). Finally he called, which surprised and scared the crap out of me. The other players folded (as expected) and we turned over our cards. As I turned them over, I said, “I need help.” Much to my shock and dismay, he turned over 55!!!! I was actually in a coin flip to increase my stack from 5K to 12K. Of course the board bricked out, and I lost my 2nd coin-flip in 15 minutes, from both sides of the proverbial coin-flip fence.

This is the 3rd time I have been knocked out in a row from a Greektown tournament in a coin-flip where that my opponent made a horrible call with a small pair. My range of shoving hands in that situation is probably 70% of the time a coin-flip, and 25% of the time I am WAY ahead. The other 5% of the time I might have 22-44, or a hand like A2. And then of course, there is the chance (seemingly remote) that I actually win the coin flip and not have their bad call be rewarded.

Following my elimination, I played more cash. I made about 200 at the easy 1-2 game, despite donking off about 200 in the last hour or two. But the game is nowhere near as fun as the 2-5 game (where a little bit more poker is being played). Called Victory up to go to an expensive dinner at the Alley Grille, then won another 75 playing Pai Gow while enjoying a few beers.

But I guess I have to wait until the next HPT event to try another qualifier. In the meantime, this tourney served as another reminder of how excruciating tournament poker can be, especially when you are losing coin-flips.

A bad session

Played a bad session yesterday with many of the hands against the same villain (maybe I should have moved tables as he definitely got the better of me). It felt like I was playing slow and passive when I should have been playing and fast, and I was playing fast and blowing people off of hands when I had near-nut hands.

Hand #1: Me and the BB have nearly zero history. The only history I can recollect is him 3 betting me a few times, with me folding to his aggression.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $284.70
CO: $308.35
Hero (BTN): $303.95
SB: $249.70
BB: $313.15
UTG: $194.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with 7c 6c
3 folds, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, BB raises to $24, Hero calls $18

Flop: ($49.00) Ac 4s 2s (2 players)
BB bets $35, Hero calls $35

Turn: ($119.00) 2h (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $72, BB calls $72

River: ($263.00) Ah (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $172.95 all in, BB calls $172.95

Final Pot: $608.90
Hero shows 7c 6c (two pair, Aces and Deuces)
BB shows Qd Qh (two pair, Aces and Queens)
BB wins $605.90
(Rake: $3.00)

The flop float was obviously very costly, but my thought was that by calling there my hand range “should” be extremely small…when he “gives up” and checks the turn, I feel like I know exactly where he was at (and I was right). I was surprised when he called the turn, but then when the ace rolls off on the river, and he checks to me I am about 99.9% certain he doesn’t have an ace and I can move in to pick up the pot. The funny thing is that I play any ace that I call his pre-flop 3 bet with the same exact way. He just happened to find the 1% of the time that I don’t destroy him.



Hand #2: Villain is reasonably tight.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $190.40
Hero (MP): $193.75
CO: $246.60
BTN: $218.00
SB: $201.00
BB: $401.65

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP with Kd Ks
UTG raises to $6, Hero raises to $20, 4 folds, UTG calls $14

Flop: ($43.00) 7s 5c Jh (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $32, UTG raises to $75, Hero raises to $173.75 all in, UTG calls $95.40 all in

Turn: ($383.80) 2c (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($383.80) 5h (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $383.80
UTG shows Ac As (two pair, Aces and Fives)
Hero mucks Kd Ks
UTG wins $380.80
(Rake: $3.00)

I don’t think I can not stack off here in this situation. Just bad luck that it was AA vs KK.



Hand #3: Button is very loose and I should be able to value bet him to death.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $163.90
UTG: $264.35
Hero (CO): $194.40
BTN: $302.15
SB: $187.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is CO with 4d 4s
UTG raises to $6, Hero calls $6, BTN calls $6, SB calls $5, BB calls $4

Flop: ($30.00) 4c Kh 7d (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $17, BTN calls $17, SB folds, BB calls $17, UTG folds

Turn: ($81.00) 8h (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $50, BB folds, Hero calls $50

River: ($181.00) 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $121.40 all in, BTN calls $121.40

Final Pot: $423.80
Hero shows 4d 4s (a full house, Fours full of Sevens)
BTN shows 8d 7h (a full house, Sevens full of Eights)
BTN wins $421.80
(Rake: $2.00)

I don’t like my turn check in retrospect, though I definitely thought 65 and 77 was very possible. I may have folded to a bet from the button and shove from the BB. In hindsight it probably would have ended the same way though. Obviously I am shoving the river hoping now that he has a straight, since 77 is extremely unlikely now. Just a bad river card.



Hand #4: Me and villain had been going at it for a while. He has 3 bet me a ton and folded once to a 4 bet. His numbers are something like 29/25. He is also EXTREMELY aggressive.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $193.65
Hero (CO): $271.25
BTN: $205.00
SB: $208.00
BB: $103.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is CO with 3s 3d
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, SB raises to $20, 1 fold, Hero calls $14

Flop: ($42.00) Ac Th 2h (2 players)
SB bets $32, Hero calls $32

Turn: ($106.00) 9h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $62, SB raises to $156 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: $230.00
SB wins $228.00
(Rake: $2.00)

As I said above, he has 3 bet me above, so I float the flop. Perhaps my bet was too weak on the turn, but I wanted to look like I was leaving enough for a big river bet as well. Obviously floating was quite a problem for me last night.



Hand #5: His numbers are 29/25, so his flat call of my PF raise feels more like a mid-pocket pair than an ace.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $278.90
Hero (MP): $312.40
CO: $247.50
BTN: $53.30
SB: $207.00
BB: $200.30

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP with 4d As
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, 2 folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($19.00) Ah 8s Ad (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, CO calls $14, BB folds

Turn: ($47.00) Th (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $32, Hero calls $32

River: ($111.00) 7c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $111, Hero calls $111

Final Pot: $333.00
Hero mucks 4d As
CO shows 7s 7d (a full house, Sevens full of Aces)
CO wins $330.00
(Rake: $3.00)

I check the turn planning on letting him bet if I beat him, and for pot control if I am wrong about him having an ace. His river bet scared the hell out of me, as it felt like it was a big value bet (since my hand was relatively face-up). But I still felt he would bluff the river as well, so I felt obliged to call.



Hand #6: Same villain as hand #4 and #5. I call pre-flop because of the other two calls.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $194.00
Hero (SB): $340.00
BB: $212.60
UTG: $454.10
MP: $651.30
CO: $100.10

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is SB with Qc 9c
1 fold, MP raises to $6, CO calls $6, BTN calls $6, Hero calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($26.00) Ac 7c 4s (4 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $18, CO folds, BTN calls $18, Hero calls $18

Turn: ($80.00) Qd (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $54, BTN folds, Hero calls $54

River: ($188.00) Kd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Final Pot: $188.00
Hero shows Qc 9c (a pair of Queens)
MP shows Kc Th (a pair of Kings)
MP wins $185.00
(Rake: $3.00)

The flop felt like an easy call, but frankly I didn’t like the turn at all and think I should have led out at it, or check-shoved. I was a little tilted from the river on the 77 hand while playing this one. Of course he got there with a hand that beat me again. Overall felt really bad about the play of this one.



Hand #7: Same villain again.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $296.50
Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $274.70
CO: $81.00
BTN: $248.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with Jh Ad
UTG raises to $6, 3 folds, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($13.00) Jc 4h 9d (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $10, Hero raises to $30, UTG calls $20

Turn: ($73.00) 4c (2 players)
Hero bets $42, UTG calls $42

River: ($157.00) 8h (2 players)
Hero bets $62, UTG folds

Final Pot: $157.00
Hero mucks Jh Ad
Hero wins $155.00
(Rake: $2.00)

I was actually kind of afraid that he got there on the river for a straight, and probably bet too small. Not sure what he had that would fold the river.



Hand #8: Again the same villain.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $279.50
Hero (BB): $276.00
UTG: $215.40
MP: $90.95
CO: $200.00
BTN: $240.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with 9c 9d
UTG raises to $6, 2 folds, BTN calls $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($19.00) 7s Ac 9s (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $14, BTN calls $14, Hero raises to $54, UTG calls $40, BTN folds

Turn: ($141.00) 4h (2 players)
Hero bets $92, UTG folds

Final Pot: $141.00
Hero mucks 9c 9d
Hero wins $138.00
(Rake: $3.00)

I was surprised he folded here. I debated checking but with the flush and straight draw possible I decided to lead out hoping he had a big ace.



Hand #9: Villain is kind of loose bad. I think he does this with most top pairs, draws and 2 pairs. Maybe I could have flatted the flop and then folded the turn.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $156.00
Hero (UTG): $277.25
MP: $201.60
CO: $432.05
BTN: $203.00
SB: $180.25

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with Ad As
Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, CO calls $6, 1 fold, SB calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($20.00) Jd Ks 3c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, CO folds, SB raises to $32, Hero raises to $92, SB raises to $174.25 all in, Hero calls $82.25

Turn: ($368.50) Qs (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($368.50) 5s (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $368.50
Hero mucks Ad As
SB shows Kd Jh (two pair, Kings and Jacks)
SB wins $365.50
(Rake: $3.00)



Hand #10: Unknown villain here.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $314.25
Hero (BTN): $214.30
SB: $198.00
BB: $39.30
UTG: $182.60
MP: $147.20

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with Tc Td
3 folds, Hero raises to $6, SB calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($14.00) Ad 8s Ts (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB raises to $24, Hero raises to $58, SB folds

Final Pot: $62.00
Hero mucks Tc Td
Hero wins $59.00
(Rake: $3.00)

He makes a small flop check-raise, so instead of flatting I elect to make a small three bet with middle set, leaving still $100+ behind to look like I can fold. Unfortunately he folds.

Oakland Hills Country Club

I was fortunate enough to get a chance to play golf at Oakland Hills country club last Monday through a contact at work (see scorecard pictured in post). It has only been 1 month since the PGA Championship was held there, and I was anxious to see how I would handle the lightening fast and difficult greens, as well as the long, gnarly rough.

Surprisingly, the greens were not anywhere near as fast as I expected them to be. It's difficult to comprehend some of the extreme contours on the greens, and I left several putts very short (like miles). I didn't hit many fairways, so I definitely got to visit the rough a lot. The areas where the gallery had been during the PGA was considered ground under repair, as it was being re-seeded. But the rough close to the fairway tended to be long and thick. When against the grain, it was very difficult to get much club on the ball, however, downgrain I was able to get a good amount of club on the ball, and still hold the greens (though they were softer than I imagine they were during the PGA).

All in all, a potentially once in a lifetime experience to play there. Here is a hole-by-hole recap of my round, at least as best as I can remember all of the details.

#12: Long par 5. Driver into trees on the right. Punch-cut 5 iron into fairway, 9 iron to green from 135, 2 putt for PAR.

#13: Short par 3. Pin at the back, 9 iron to front of green. First putt a mile short. 3 putts for BOGEY.

#14: Very long par 4. Driver into right rough, 4 iron into front bunker, bunker shot barely cleared lip and left in the rough, excellent chip rolled 20 feet past pin. 2 putts for DOUBLE BOGEY.

#15: Short dogleg left par 4. Driver nearly topped, 3 wood into woods on right. Wedge onto front of green. 3 putts for DOUBLE BOGEY.

#16: Signature par 4 you see on TV. Blasted driver in fairway near waters edge. Missed green short left with 110 yard wedge. Putted from off the green to barely on. 2 more putts for a shitty BOGEY.

#17: Uphill par 3. Beautiful 6 iron to 15 feet. Lipped out birdie try. PAR.

#18: Played as a very short par 5 for members. Drive over dogleg into right rough. Chunked 6 iron way short. Chunked wedge to short of green. Pitched up and 2 putts for a terrible BOGEY.


#1: Medium length par 4. Crushed driver in center of fairway. Pitching wedge from 110 to 3 feet. Made putt for BIRDIE.

#2: Uphill par 5. Crushed driver to right side of fairway. Choked down on 3 wood from 220 into trees on right just off green. Pitched up and ball went over green into chipping area that I didn’t originally see. Putt up hill almost rolled back to me. 2 more putts for another terrible BOGEY on a par 5.

#3: Medium par 3, misjudged wind as I left an iron 10 yards short. Chili-dipped a chip, and then 2 putt for BOGEY.

#4: Downhill par 4. Drive into right side of fairway. 9 iron to 25 feet. 2 putts for PAR.

#5: Drive a foot away from creek. Awkward stance and punched a 6 iron up the mouth of the green and into the rough (pin tucked on a ridge on opposite side). Putted from off the green, didn’t make it up ridge and left with 30 feet. 2 putts from there for BOGEY.

#6: Crushed driver into right rough. Chunked lob wedge from 65 yards. Flop shot to 2 feet and made putt for PAR.

#7: Short par 4 into wind. Don’t remember much other than the rain starting. DOUBLE BOGEY.

#8: LONG par 4. Made a nice up and down for PAR.

#9: Long par 3. 4 iron was pin high but right of the bunker (pin tucked on RH side so I was short sided). Flop shot left in the deep bunker. Beautiful bunker shot from there to 4 feet. Made putt for BOGEY.


#10: Medium par 4. Driver into RH rough. 7 iron onto green 30 feet past. 2 putts for PAR.

#11: Short par 4 with tough sloped green. Driver into RH fairway bunker (close to lip). Had 150 in, and I hit nearly the shot of my life, a 7 iron that cleared the lip and cut around the trees blocking me out. Wind caught it though and ended up 10 yards short of green. Chunked a pitch short of the green. Pitched again 15 feet past pin and made downhill putt for BOGEY.

What to do about the Tigers

This has been the most disappointing Tigers season in recent memory. It's been pretty much the antithesis of the magical 2006 "rise from the ashes" season that they put together. Pretty much everyone in the country figured they would have no trouble scoring runs, and the bullpen would be a problem. Well it turned out that at some point in the season every part of the team failed miserably, and wholesale changes are in order. But...if they make the right moves, inject youth into the right spots, 2009 could be a contending season.

My recommendations for the positions:

C: This position was in a ton of upheaval this year. Pudge started the year there, and late in pre-season Brandon Inge got moved to the backup spot. Once Pudge was traded, Inge took it over. I like Inge, but his hitting has been pretty dismal this year, and it was never very good to begin with. That being said, there isn't a lot on the market in the position, and I am willing to give Inge a partial pass due to the off-season upheaval he underwent, along with his rotating positions, so I say that he starts 2009 as the catcher. We really need to grab a suitable backup, because Dane Sardinha might be the worst hitter I have ever seen. Even a poor mans Brandon Inge at the plate would be better than what we are sending up there.

1B: Miguel Cabrera is a stud, no question, even in a down year (by the incredible standards he has created for himself). But the bottom line is that he is getting too fat, and at 25 if he keeps this up, he will look like Cecil Fielder. His 1B defense is a little rough/lazy, but this is his first year at the position and I expect him to improve.

2B: Most people love Placido Polanco, and point to his high average the last few years. He also is one of the few players who can hit to the opposite field with the intention of moving the runners. But because of the reasons listed above, he is one of the few marketable commodities we have left. His high average tends to be somewhat empty, and his range at 2B is incredibly lacking. Because of that, I wouldn't mind trading him if we can get some value for him, but I fully expect us to hang on to him.

3B: Carlos Guillen is another that played musical positions. Hmmm...no wonder the team had some struggles, 3/5 of the infield moved to new positions this year, and even those roles weren't well defined until several months into the season. I'm not sure what to do with him, he can still hit, but he has some significant injury issues, and his defense can go from good to piss-poor. I think we are stuck with him here. The main problem is that he probably needs to DH, but I don't believe he hits for enough power to DH, and we have so many other potential DH's on this roster.

SS: What to do with Edgar Renteria....he has pretty much looked indifferent to me the whole season, both at bat and in the field. I don't believe Ramon Santiago is more than a utility player. Renteria had a terrible season 2 years ago in Boston, only to follow it up with a career year in Atlanta. I'm willing to give Renteria one more year to figure things out.

LF: What a mess. My opinion is to trade Marcus Thames for anything we can get (I know, a lot of people love him). He hits 20+ HR's, but they are in spurts, and then he goes through a month without hitting a damn thing. Inject Matt Joyce or Clete Thomas into this position.

CF: Curtis Granderson....perhaps the only player on the team I struggle to say a bad thing about. Should be an OF fixture in Detroit for another 5-10 years...minimum.

RF: Magglio....a lot of articles that I have read have suggested trading him....but despite some comical defense, his production is phenomenal and consistent. He hit .365 in 2007, and in 2008 he has hovered in the .310-.320 range. I say hold onto him.

DH: Currently held by Gary Sheffield, he has been terrible most of his time here due to either injury or old age. I say dump him, eat his salary if we have to and get somebody else in there.

SP1: Justin Verlander. I have said time and time again that I don't believe he's an ace. This year has been further evidence of that. I believe he is a headcase. However, he is young, so he may develop the mentality needed to be an ace/stopper. At this point he is a cooler though. Obviously at this point though, he is our #1 next season.

SP2: Jeremy Bonderman....his season was cut short due to the blood clot and subsequent surgery. I don't believe he will ever develop into a #1 (headcase issues again), but he can be a #2, especially if he ever develops a third pitch of some type.

SP3: Kenny Rogers - he gone.

SP4: Dontrelle Willis - Control problems and injuries destroyed his season. I don't believe we can count on him at all for next season, despite the recently extended contract.

SP5: Nate Robertson - total trash this season. Another long term contract signed, this one with absolutely zero merit.

Other:
Armando Gallaraga - Came in in May and has been pretty much our ace. He's obviously one to count on for next season.
Zach Miner - I said that he had #5 pitcher written all over him, and to this point he has done excellent in that role.

Suddenly, a rotation that started the season with 2 RHP and 3 LHP has turned into a 2009 rotation of 4 RHP and 0 LHP with the 5th spot being uncertain. It's reasonably certain that the #5 spot will be manned by a lefty, but the question is, who? CC Sabathia would sure look good in the rotation, and though he would be a match made in eating heaven with Miggy, I don't expect it to happen. If that doesn't happen, perhaps Rick Porcello, one of the top prospects in baseball can enter the rotation out of spring training.

Bullpen: Pretty much the worst part of the team all year long, due to injuries and total ineffectiveness.

Todd Jones - He gone.
Fernando Rodney - The closer until we get better.
Joel Zumaya - I don't believe his future is in the rotation given the list above, so hopefully he gets healthy. If the 2006 Zumaya ever returns, we have a closer.
Kyle Farnsworth - He gone
Bobby Seay - Been very good at times, not so good at other times as the lefty specialist. Think he will still be here.
Freddy Dolsi - Showed flashes of ability, think he will get a shot in short relief next year as well.
Aqualino Lopez - Done a good job in mid-relief this season. Not sure his contract status but wouldn't mind if he was still here.

The rest of the pen is a mystery. Our first round pick (his name escapes me) was a relief pitcher in college, and almost MLB ready.

A lot of questions for the team this season.

Most idiotic hand I've seen in some time

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

BB: $210.15
UTG: $222
MP: $197
CO: $216.45
Hero (BTN): $206
SB: $173

Dealt to Hero (BTN) Ah 8d
3 folds, Hero raises to $6, SB folds, BB calls $4

Flop:($13) 8s Jh Kd (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($13) 8h (2 Players)
BB bets $8, Hero raises to $28, BB raises to $54, Hero calls $26

River: ($121) 6c (2 Players)
BB bets $54, Hero raises to $146 and is All-In, BB calls $92

Results: $413 Pot ($3 Rake)
BB mucked 9h 5s and LOST (-$206 NET)
Hero showed Ad 8h (three of a kind, Eights) and WON $410 (+$204 NET)


Dude just threw me almost $100 with his river call with 9 high!!!

Tactical errors....

I played a few of the 180 man $20 SNG's on Stars last night. In one of them I was sitting near average before I made a huge hand, nearly tripling up and catapaulting myself near the chip lead.

The situation was I had about 2250 in the 50/100 blind level, and raised to 300 with QQ. The button called, and the SB called. Flop came Qc5c4x, and I opted for the check, hoping that the button, who only had 1K left, would shove. The button obliged, and then the SB flat called the 1K. I obviously shoved at this point with the SB calling. The button had Tc7c, and the SB had Ac2c....so I was dodging the other 7 clubs, and the 4 3's. They missed and suddenly I was up to around 6K. From there it was very smooth sailing until the final 3 tables, I started building a stack with limited resistance, and took down a ton of pots either with pre-flop raises or re-raises, or flop continuation bets. I eventually built my stack up to about 38K, when the average was 12K.

Then things started going wrong. It began with AJ < AK on an ace high flop to a shorter stack, and that started a run of my pre-flop raises being the only ones that were met with resistance. I wasn't opening an unreasonable amount of pots at this point, but whenever I did I was being met by a call or raise...then an unsatisfactory flop.

Finally, I re-raised a MP raise with AQ, only to run into AK...board ran out A54AQ for me to hit the miracle 3 outer, and I was back in business with 25K in chips. I hovered in that general vicinity up to the final table, which I reached in 5th position. I treaded water for a while until I reached the critical final decision.

This hand should be prefaced by the fact that I had to work this morning, and this tourney had gone over one hour later than I planned on playing, so I was less than 5 hours from my wake-up call. I had Ac6c, and commented to myself that I would re-pop the frequent raiser all-in if he opened. Sure enough he opened in EP to 3K (600/1200 blinds)...he had been opening a ton of pots, but almost all of them were full 3X raises. I even commented that this was a smaller than normal raise, but instead of stopping myself, I decided to shove, and of course ran into a real hand in JJ, even though my intuition expected it. Unfortunately I didn't get lucky and I was eliminated in a disappointing 7th place, for a paltry $120...when first was over $1k.

It just goes to show that you need to maintain focus at all times in order to make a big score.

4th of July weekend

Thursday, July 3rd

The day got off to an interesting start, as a round of storms the night before knocked the power out at my work. Unfortunately, I still had to make the 30+ mile drive out there. But in any case, I was home by 10am after a breakfast meeting with the boss, which left me time to work on preparing Abby’s bedroom for painting.

Following several hours of work, I went with Victory and her family to Joey’s comedy club. The headliner was surprisingly excellent, despite the small crowd (which he mentioned multiple times during his routine). He had a lot of energy, and was quite the physical comic.

Friday, July 4th

Woke up somewhat early, and immediately went to work on the bedroom. We primed the walls and ceiling (not my favorite job at all…but then again, rarely do I enjoy and kind of physical labor). Following the work, which seemed exhausting due to most of the work being above my head, we got showered and went to Victory’s parents house for a 4th of July BBQ. The meal was chicken kabobs and corn on the cob, along with a few other items I don’t eat (potato salad, pasta salad, etc….). After dinner we sat down to play some cards. We played one round of Uno (which Linda won), but none of us really wanted to play that. Then we played a game of hearts up to 200….Victory led most of the game, but on the last hand I stuck her with the black Mariah for the late win.

After I got home, we watched the neighbors from down the block put on a display with their fireworks, which in the end must have been several hundred dollars worth.

Saturday, July 5th

I reserved a (free) room for Caesar’s Windsor for Saturday night, as did my buddy Al for him and his wife. We decided to get down there early for the $100 buy-in poker tourney. I have had a good deal of success in the 2 previous tourney’s I played before, splitting 1st 3 ways out of 25 runners the first time (for $833 apiece) and then finishing 6th of 34, after turning down a 6 way chop of $500 (a story for another time).

Early on, I missed out on a couple of chances to accumulate chips.

Tourney Hand #1: I limp 55 (with about 2K in chips) in the 25/50 level. 5 players see a flop of T53r…one of the blinds (the table captain) leads out 100, another player calls and I decide to just call as this board is safe enough to give a free card. Turn is a 7….Captain leads out 350…one fold, and I decide it’s time to raise and make it 800. He says something to the effect of “I can’t believe you played 64 here, but I’ll fold my T.” He proceeds to rant for several minutes about the terrible play in this tournament. In defense of the Captain, he was a decent player, but the kind that likes to tell everyone how wonderful he is. In the meantime, I like to develop a quiet assassin type of image that makes people afraid of playing a pot with me.

Tourney Hand #2: The real missed opportunity here. I raise AA after an EP limper to 200, all fold but the limper calls (seems like a decent player). I flop huge with AJJ. He checks and I go against my standard play of betting my strong hands and decide to check. Turn is a K, he bets 300….I just call again. River is a terrible card, another K (unless he has a K). He checks to me and my worst fears are realize, and folds to my bet of 650. Later he claims he had the jack, which if true means I could have busted him (as I barely had him covered). In hindsight, especially on that board, I think betting the flop is the right play. A free card isn’t likely to do a lot to make his hand strong enough to stand a turn bet. I may as well try to get some value out of him if he has the case A or a J.

Tourney Hand #3: At this point, Victory, Al, and his wife have already been eliminated and I am the only hope. I have accumulated chips from a few bad plays of other players, and this hand comes up. Blinds are 200/400, and the SB (a weak player who I have seen limp some big hands before, has about 5K in chips, I cover with 9K) limps into my BB…I have A3 and decide to check. Flop comes A84, he checks and I decide to check to disguise my hand. Turn is a 7 (putting 2 diamonds on board), he checks, and I min-bet 400…again trying to disguise my hand as a steal and he calls. River is the Ad…giving me trips, but putting a flush draw out. He checks and I bet 800 (1/2 pot), thinking I can get a call out of a marginal hand like a 7. He surprises me and raises 1200 more to 2K….this surprises me as I thought he would lead out with a flush. In the end though, I decided to fold, as he has no reason to believe I have a hand as strong as I do, and I can’t see him being able to pull off this bluff, especially for how small his raise was.

Tourney Hand #4: A little while later we are at the final table, with the top 5 getting paid. Down to 8, my stack is about average, but blinds are going up. I am in the BB with about 10K, SB has about 4500. The table has been pretty tight so far, and the SB has given me two walks to this point. All fold to the SB, and he says that he can’t give me a walk this time, and raises to 2400 (blinds of 300/600). I have Ad9d and move him in. He says something about not being able to fold and tables AK!!! No shit you can’t fold! The flop has a K, and he makes a full house by the river, knocking me into 7th in chips.

Tourney Hand #5: An orbit or two later, and I am up to about 7500. Blinds are 500/1000. UTG moves in for 2500 (player with the diamond flush in hand #3). I am planning on calling with any two cards….and then the CO re-raises to 6K. I look down at AhKh, and based on the blind level, my chip stack, and the fact that he could be re-raising with any reasonable ace or mid-pocket pair, I move in. UTG has A5, the CO has JJ, but the JJ holds and I am eliminated in 7th. Of course the players chop the tournament up 6 ways after my elimination, so I have either chopped for first, or been eliminated one spot from cashing in my 3 experiences.

Following the poker, I check into the room. Unfortunately they couldn’t give me the room in new tower that I reserved (city view, king bed, non-smoking), so I selected a room in the old town just to get the king bed. After checking in, we decided to grab a bite to eat and go swimming. The swim helped re-charge my poker mind and desire…though it wouldn’t be satisfied until later that night.

Before dinner, I staked Victory in some Pai Gow, since I am unable to play –EV games due to my bet with Sonny. During that time, she turned a small profit, but was able to have some fun. I also sweated Al and his wife at Carribean Stud while waiting for our dinner reservation, telling the story about how Sonny once got a royal flush at the game but wasn’t playing the progressive, missing out on a jackpot of $90K Canadian, which at the time was about $200 US dollars (not really, actually probably $60K US).

I invited Al and his wife to dinner at Nero’s steakhouse (my previous review of Nero's and Caesar's Windsor) with us. This time, I ordered the rack of lamb, which was excellent. Victory ordered a filet, which has one half of it cooked perfectly for her (well done) and the other half cooked perfectly for me (medium). Go figure…but one of the first good things to happen on the trip. Al ordered a Bone-in NY Strip (he said it was excellent) and his wife ordered the salmon (also good). Dinner was a lot of laughing, fortunately the server had a good sense of humor, as he needed it. The final tab for the bill was like $230, which we paid with reward credits from both mine and Al’s account.

After dinner, it was time for poker. I sat in the 2/5NL game, and was placed in one of the must move games. Unfortunately I didn’t want to move at all. Despite that, it didn’t stop me from making a bad call on a hand and being stuck about 200 when this hand came up:

Cash hand #1: 6 handed right now, UTG opens to 15, 2 callers and I call from the BB with Th7h. Flop comes Jh8x3h…giving me a flush draw and gutshot straight draw. I check with the intention of making a large check-raise. UTG (250 behind, I cover) bets 30, rest fold to me and I raise to 150 (committing me to the pot). He debates for a minute and then shoves…I call and he asks if I have air, I tell him I have a big draw, and am shocked to see he has Tc9c, and had moved in with an open ended straight draw with no fold equity, but somehow had the best hand. The turn was a Qh completing both of our draws, but locking up the hand for me.

Cash hand #2: I get moved to the main game, and have about 800 (covers villain’s 550). Villian limps in EP, and I raise to 25 with QQ. Rest fold and villain calls. Previously I had seen the villain stack off with AT on an ace high flop to AK, so I didn’t take him to be very good. Flop comes T53r….he donks out 40, and after I ask him how much he has behind, I raise to 140 with the full intention of calling a shove as I don’t think he would play a set this way. He debates and shoves, saying something about being “Ready to go home”. This comment kind of scares me, but I decide to go with my instinct, figuring I have to dodge 5 outs. It turns out I have to dodge 6 outs, as he only has an un-improved AK, putting me about 75% to win the pot. Fortunately my hand holds, and I scoop the $1100 pot. It blows my mind how people can lose their mind on a hand like that. If he had gotten his money in pre-flop against me, I might have folded, as limping AA or KK is very possible in a game like this, but as played, there was no way I could fold.

When all was said and done, I ended up winning about $700 in the game.

Sunday, July 6th

After a 30 minute wait at the border, we made it back into the states. Since Abby had been gone for a week on vacation with her mom, I was dying to see her, so we picked her up for most of the afternoon. At home I set up the slip and slide in the backyard and watched her play on that for about half an hour. Then I went inside and watched the end of the Federer/Nadal match. After that, we had grilled burgers and corn, made brownies, and then Victory had the idea to have a water balloon fight. Abby had so much fun soaking both of us, that we repeated the fight 2 more times before we finally had to take her back to her mom’s house.

All in all an excellent weekend, it’s too bad they all can’t be this good.

Greektown 2/5 game

After the exciting Tigers game on Saturday night, we headed to Greektown Casino for some live NL action. I bought in at the 2/5 NL game for $500, and was immediately seated at a table with only 4 other players (they had 2 games going, and both were short). Most live players get very frantic when the table has less than 10 players at it, but I tend to love it, as that is what I am accustomed to playing online, and you can play way more hands. Anyways, to the key hands of the night.

Hand 1: 6 handed, villian has about 450, I cover. 2 limps to me and I limp KT in the SB. Flop comes QTT(rainbow). I lead 20, folds to button right next to me who makes it 40. The villain has already raised pre-flop a few times, so I am not concerned about AT here, and I don't believe he would raise with a full house, so I call as I don't want to push out a hand like QJ just yet. Turn is a 6 (putting 2 to a heart flush on the board). I check and he leads 200 (pot of 100), with 210 or so more behind. The overbet of the pot was surprising to me, as that is not a move I see live often (however when seen online, it typically is a huge hand). After debating for a while, I couldn't see him doing this with any hand that was ahead of me, so I moved in on him. He called his last 210 off, and showed Th5h, for trips with a lower kicker and a flush draw. I faded his 10 or so outs, and was quickly up 500.

Hand 2: I have been moved to the main game, and it is one of my first hands. After a handful of limpers, I limp Tc8c from the button. Flop comes KT8 (with two hearts). Checked to me and I lead 40 into a pot of about 40. BB calls (he has 300 left and I cover) and the rest fold. At this point I am weary of a lot of turn cards, since there are a lot of potential draws (QJ, J9, heart draw) and a lot of potential two pair outs I have to dodge since I have bottom two. The turn is an A (QJ just got there). He checks and I check behind, not sure if I plan on betting, folding, calling or raising the river (depending on the card and his action). The river is a small heart (heart draw just got there). He checks, and I do a safety check and win the pot over his KJ, and feel like a bit of a pussy afterwards. By the same token, I would have felt like a dildo had I bet the river and he raised.

Hand 3: I raise UTG with KQ to 20...guy 2 after me re-raises to 40 (he seems very loose, and has shown both aggressive and passive play to this point). 3 people call the 40, so I quickly call the 20 when it is back to me. The flop comes gin for me...QQQ. I check, re-raiser bets 60....guy to the right of me calls, and I call. Turn is a K (apparently I have the entire deck this hand). I check, re-raiser bets 105, guy to the right of me now folds...and I decide I have to get more money in the pot now, and raise to 300...hoping that he has AK, KK, or AA and will feel he has to call me down. Unfortunately he folded, saying "I had a lower full house." People at the table were excited, thinking the hand was a prospect for the bad beat jackpot, but alas it wasn't to be.

Hand 4: 10 handed, I had AK and KK the previous 2 hands, so people might have been suspicious....but I hadn't shown down anything out of line. I raise KK for the 2nd hand in a row, and after a raise to 20 sees 2 callers. Flop comes 976r, I lead 45, get raised by the same player from hand 3 to 100 and I call (he has 650 and I cover). Turn is a 3, and I check and he bets 150. My read on this player is that he could have called my pre-flop raise with any suited relatively connected card...so hands like T8, 97, and 76 are in his range. But also hands like A9 (thinking he was raising for value), and A8 (open ended draw) are possible as well. I decide to call the 150 to see how he plays the river. The river is a 2 (an absolute blank). I check and he goes all-in for about 450...I debate and fold. I think this was a good fold, as I just don't think he can 3 barrel bluff me in this spot. In retrospect though, I probably should have just folded the turn. When I called the turn, I thought that he might be one of those live donkey's that fires the same river bet as the turn bet, and I might be able to call the river for like 150 or so. But he at least played it right with a healthy river bet.

Hand 5: Nothing too interesting here....UTG opens for 25, MP calls, I repop to 100 with AK. UTG moves in for 255, MP folds, I call. He has QQ, I have AKs. Door card is an A....flop A66, turn T, river Q....kick in the gut in a $500+ pot.

All in all a good trip though, I walked away about 650 to the good for about 3 hours of work.

Gas prices

Just for my own notes...gas prices are at $3.85 by my house. It makes me laugh 1.5 years ago I was joking about gas prices at $2.54...and see how far we have come.

A post I made in 2006

2008 Kentucky Derby trip report

Friday - Oaks Day

We made the long drive to Churchill Downs from our hotel in Corydon, IN, as I had already handicapped the first few races we decided to get there for the first post at 11am. After arriving, we had to get tickets for Paul and Mark, since Sonny and I already had grandstand tickets that I purchase every year. Doug was arriving by plane later, so he was planning on picking up a ticket on the way in. We found a couple of people selling tickets outside, and asked one guy about his tickets that were a few sections over from ours. We asked how much and he said $100 apiece (face value of $47). We said "No thanks" and walked away. Next he asked how much did we want to pay, and Paul said "$100 for both." He said "No" and we started to walk away. He immediately accepted our offer and we were on our way with the tickets. Doug ended up arriving late on his flight, and just hung out at the guys house where we traditionally park.

The day started off pretty nice weather-wise, despite a rainy forecast. I started off losing, despite having the winner or top 2 or 3 in each race pegged (through poor bet selection). Around the 4th race, the rain started, and everyone congregated in the grandstand betting area. As the track got more crowded, this area became ridiculously busy, and made most of Oaks day relatively unpleasant. Late in the day, we found a spot to stand outside and watch the races but not get wet, so that made things more tolerable. Around the 8th or 9th race of the day, Sonny hit a nice superfecta with the longest shot on the board in 1st. It paid him about 4K, so that got his weekend off to a very nice start. I hit a few small bets, but never anything good and probably lost about 600 (far more than I planned on betting on horses that day). The Oaks was a pretty competitive race on paper, even though Eight Belles was scratched to be able to run in the Derby (more on her later). In the end, Proud Spell, the favorite and Eight Belle's stablemate won in an impressive performance. I already liked Eight Belle's chances in the Derby, and this race by Proud Spell confirmed my feelings that she stood a good chance in the big race.

After the Oaks, we made the long drive back to the hotel, changed clothes, and then drove back to Caesars Indiana in what has become pretty much a tradition. Doug accompanied Sonny and I, while Paul and Mark stayed back at the hotel in what would be a theme for the weekend. Both Sonny and I planned on playing some poker and drink. After we arrived, we went to the poker room to get our names on the lists. Unfortunately the main room is being renovated, so the room was much smaller, and we had to wait about 30-40 minutes to play. Finally Sonny and I got into the same 2/5 NL table. They allow you to buy in pretty deep, up to $1K. I started at $500. For the first hour or two I played somewhat tight, never really getting anything going. The table was kind of tough for Caesars, but there was one maniac who turned more and more maniacal as the night went on. As has been the case lately when I play with Sonny, he gets big hands very early on, and runs into players intent on throwing him their chips. Sonny and the maniac also tangled several times in big pots with marginal hands, mostly exchanging blows.

I got moved into the main game a short while later, and this is where things started to get fun. Most of the players were fairly deepstacked. I started picking up some pots, mostly out of brute force as I was running pretty cold decked (never flopped a set, never made a straight, never made a flush, had KK once, and my next best hand was TT). Eventually Sonny and the maniac got moved over to our table. The maniac also started buying everyone at the table drinks, and despite the fact that I drove, and had already been drinking heavily, I didn't miss a single drink that he ordered.

Some brief background info on the maniac. He was playing very loose and very aggressive. He wasn't afraid to bet with nothing, or call large bets with very marginal hands. Earlier in the night, he showed Sonny credit card receipts from the previous few days showing over 100K in losses. Occasionally he would raise to $100 from 5, and he even once made it $500 to go from a bet of $5. One of the times he made it $100 to go, he showed AA.

Eventually I made a few hands and was up about $500, when the following hand came up. Somehow I got into a pot with 65, and the flop came A75, but unfortunately I don't remember any of the preflop action as I was pretty hammered. The blind led out 15 or so, and for some reason I raised to 50 and he called. The turn was a K, and he checked. I decided to fire out $125 and he called again. The river came a K, and after he checked, I decided that I had to take a shot at the pot, and fired out $275. He debated for a while, and I actually thought he was going to fold. Eventually he called and said "AK is good" and flipped over 77. I was shocked that he was that strong, as 77 was nowhere near my radar for him on that particular hand. At that point, I was pretty frustrated for bluffing off nearly $500, but felt I played the hand well given my holdings and his range for holdings. He just happened to be way stronger than I believed (one of the bad things about drinking is that you believe you can make anyone fold, although one of the good things is that you tend to play fearless at the same time). I didn't have to be angry for long though, a few hands later, I raised AQ in early position to $25 (and got 2-3 callers, standard in this game). The flop came QQ6. I led out 45ish, getting a call from one of the blinds, who had me covered. The turn was a 7, and he check called a bet of 125 from me. At this point I was pretty sure he had a Q, and was hoping for the river to be a low non-pairing card. The dealer obliged with a 2 or a 4 (in other words a blank). He checked and I debated my options, and finally decided to make a small overbet and moved in for $380. He said something about me probably having AQ and he called. I showed my hand and he showed me a Q. I said "QJ" and he nodded. Tough break for him to make trips with a lower kicker, but at least I extracted full value on the hand by playing it fast.

Shortly after that hand, we decided it was time to go. There was some drama with Doug and security, but I'm not sure whether it was going to get into arrest territory. In any case, I hurriedly got to the front and made sure to diffuse the situation. At that point, we decided that we needed to take a taxi (despite the near $100 fare) back to the hotel and leave my car there, despite the fact that it was 4:15am, and we had to leave for Churchill Downs at 8:30ish. We left Doug the instructions to inform Paul and Mark that we needed a ride to the track on Saturday morning, and then following the Derby the subsequent ride to the casino to get my car.

I ended up +600ish at the casino, Sonny around the same, and Doug +2K.

Saturday - Derby Day

I woke up Saturday at about 8:30am. I immediately called Paul and found out him and Mark were already at Churchill Downs. Obviously Doug didn't do his job very well. Following that I went downstairs to see if I could score us a ride to the Derby. After finding no takers, it became apparent we would have to call a taxi. The taxi showed up and said he could do it for $70, which felt like a bargain compared to the ride the previous night. We got to the track in time for race 2 (and I won a bet that I had Paul place on Race 1). We entered through the main gate which had a much shorter line (since we weren't carrying any chairs). Most of my party immediately started drinking, but I was pretty hung over from the night before, so I took it easy on the drinking and betting front. Over the course of Derby Day the lines began getting progressively longer, slower, and more annoying. It got bad enough that I made all of my Derby bets an hour and a half before the race. I ended up splitting a big Trifecta ticket with Paul and Doug (cost $200), and then put win and place bets on Gayego and Z Fortune, and a bet on the Filly for Victory.

Sonny and I decided to put together a large superfecta ticket. In the end we came up with a ticket that cost $1440....it consisted of something like 5 horses in 1st and 2nd, and then 10 horses in 3rd, and 12 horses in 4th. I didn't have a lot of money to blow, so I bought in for 10% of the ticket as did Doug, while Sonny had the last 80% of it. As the race entered the stretch, I knew it was Big Brown (the favorite) in the front, and I was pretty sure it was the filly in 2nd, but I had no clue who was 3rd and 4th. When the race finished, we pretty much had no idea if we won or lost, though I knew we had a decent chance given that those 2 horses were all over both of our tickets. Once we heard who the 3rd (Denis of Cork) and 4th (Tale of Ekati) place finishers were, I looked at my ticket and knew I had the tri. Sonny wasn't sure if we had the super, but I was positive as I had both of those horses on my tri ticket, and the Super ticket nearly mirrored my tri ticket. As I looked at the board, I pondered the potential payoffs. I figured the tri would be somewhere in the 1K range...or lower, given that it was the favorite and 4th favorite in 1st and 2nd....but I wasn't sure what the 3rd and 4th place horses would do to those payoffs. Both horses were longshots, but so was most of the field, so it all depended on the sometimes fickle tri and super pools. When the payoffs came up, the Super was the first thing I saw....$58K for a $2 bet!!!! Our ticket was only for $1, but this was WAY beyond anything I was expecting. Too bad I only had 10% of it. At that point Sonny came up yelling "Yahtzee" as he had seen the payout at the windows. At that time it occurred to me to check the Tri payout, which was a much more reasonable $3400 on a $2 ticket. Still more than I expected.

It was at that point that I heard the sad news about Eight Belles, the filly, breaking both ankles galloping out at the end of the race, and being euthanized on the track. Very sad story for horse racing, but it is one of the risks of the sport. It's absurd that a nutjob group like PETA is getting involved in this, blaming the jockey. She just finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby...there is no way she had an injury during the race and was able to run on it. It happened in the gallop following the race, and was a totally fluky occurrence.

The tragedy aside, it was a phenomenal result for the Derby for almost all of us, except for Paul and Mark who made the wise decision to turn down grabbing a piece of our tickets. Our enthusiasm was tempered significantly upon the realization that IRS was taking 9K off of our tickets from the top. Instead of 29K, we pulled 20K, bringing my share of the Super score down to 2K, and Sonny's down to 16K. It's frustrating how many times a single dollar can get taxed by our government, but that's a story for another day entirely. My share of the tri was just a little over 550, meaning I turned a profit of about 2200 on the Derby. In the end after all of my expenses, my profit for the trip was about 1800....in other words a damn nice way to spend a weekend.

After arriving back at Mark's car, we bought some beer from the guys whose house we park at and proceeded to have a "Jimmie Johnson" festival, spraying cans of beer all over each other. These were promised if anyone hit a race that they had to sign for that also put them in the black for the weekend. Sonny hit 3 signers on his own, along with the 4th that he split. I was a part of 2 signers myself.

Following the Derby, we had to make the trek back to Caesars Indiana, to pick up my car. While we were there we grabbed dinner and drinks at the main restaurant in the casino. I had a pretty good NY Strip, with a pretty stingy baked potato. All in all a good meal following a long Derby day. We wanted to celebrate our win but we were all just really tired.