Dullahan - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview

Back in February I made a futures bet on Dullahan to win the Kentucky Derby at 40-1.  I don't really remember what it is I liked about him back then, coming off of his 4th place in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but he has certainly moved forward since then.

The Good: 
1)  He finally seemed to put things altogether in the Blue Grass, coming from well off the the pace, and making a Derby type winning move down the lane to get by Hansen.
2)  His speed figures are improving with every race, albeit a very slow incline.
3)  He has a sold foundation of 4 races over 1 mile at 2, and now two races at 1 1/8 miles at 3. 
4)  He is moving into his all-important 3rd race of the year in his form cycle, suggesting he could peak with the Derby.
5)  He was a 250K purchase as a yearling, so somebody sees a lot of talent in him.
6)  Dale Romans led Shackleford through the Triple Crown campaign last year, and I suspect he learned some things for this go-around. 
7)  Kent Desormeaux knows how to win Derbies, with 3 wins to his credit.

The Bad:  
1)  He has two races at Churchill in his career, a 5th place in a maiden race, and then a 4th in the Juvenile, beaten by 3 horses who are going in the Derby this year.  While Dullahan has improved since then, so have at least 2 of the horses who finished ahead of him.
2)  His speed figures seem a little light, with the 98 in the Blue Grass being his only race above a 90 in 7 previous starts.  His highest dirt Beyer is an 83.  His best races thus far have been on Polytrack and Turf.
3)  His Blue Grass race gave him almost a perfect trip, chasing a pretty hot pace that set it up perfectly for him.
4)  His running style, while likely to be flattered by a hot Derby pace, may force him to cover a lot of extra ground, and may get him blocked behind traffic. 
5)  He has 8 starts, and his record of 2-2-2 in those starts isn't the most inspiring. 
6)  I don't know a lot about his sire, Even the Score, but his sires sire was Unbridled's Song, who couldn't get the Derby distance.  

Betting Strategy:
He is likely to be around the 5th choice in the Derby, with odds somewhere between 10-1 and 12-1.  He may even go lower as sort of a wise guy horse.  He is likely to be coming late, but based on everything that I have examined, it's going to be asking an awful lot for him to be the winner.  To make him the winner, you have to be able to surmise that he will run better on Churchill this time than the previous two chances that he had, turn the tables on the 3 horses that finished ahead of him in the Juvenile on the same track, battle through the likely traffic trouble he will need to overcome, and also improve 5-7 Beyer figure points.  

I could see playing him in 1st on a few backup type tickets, in 2nd on many tickets, and 3rd on virtually all tickets. 

Gemologist - 2012 Kentucky Derby Profile

The Good - There is an absolute ton to like about this horse leading into the race from my perspective.  So many that I am going to have to itemize them:

1)  He has never been beaten, undefeated in 5 starts. 
2)  He has heart.  He got headed by Alpha in the Wood Memorial, and had that unique cliche quality to look another horse in the eye and not let him get by.  Reminds me a bit of Silver Charm at this point. 
3)  His sire is Tiznow, who won the Breeders Cup Classic at the Derby distance twice, including once (and maybe twice) at Churchill Downs.
4)  He owns two victories over the Churchill Downs track.  As mentioned before, Churchill seems to be a unique course, some horses love it, others hate it.  Gemologist has proven to like it.
5)  His trainer, love him or hate him, knows what he is doing.  He only has 1 Derby to his credit, but is one of the best in the business. 
6)  His speed figures have improved in EVERY race he has ever ran.  This will be his 3rd race of the year, and he should be primed to run a big one. 
7)  His running style is versatile, he has won on the lead, and he has won rating slightly off of the pace.  His stalking style insures that he should get a decent trip.
8)  He has won at 4 different tracks (Aqueduct, Churchill, Gulfstream and Turfway), and 2 different surfaces (Dirt and Synthetic).  

The Bad -  Not a lot of bad here, but in the interest of fairness I have to at least list the things that concern me.

1)  He got a great trip in the Wood Memorial, but barely held off Alpha who had a rough trip.  The final eighth of a mile was also run in over 13 1/5 seconds, which is not fast. 
2)  His speed figures, while improving, are a little light by Derby standards, with a 98 in the Wood Memorial.  To win this Derby a horse probably needs to run a 103-105.  Certainly not the lowest in the field, but not the highest either. 

Betting strategy -  He's liable to go off as one of the 4 favorites, but it's difficult to estimate where he will settle out at in the betting.  I'm guessing he settles in as the 3rd choice, somewhere around 7-1 behind Union Rags and Bodemeister.  This is very likely to be one of my key horses for the trifecta and/or superfecta, due to his consistency, versatility, likelihood to get a clean trip, and feeling that he is ramping up into a big race.

Creative Cause - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview

The good: There is a lot to like about Creative Cause. First is his sire, Giant's Causeway is a beast. Believe Causeway ran 2nd in the Breeders Cup Classic at Churchill Downs, so affinity to Churchill and the 1 1/4 mile distance shouldn't be a problem.

Creative Cause ran 3rd at Churchill in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, beaten only a length by Hansen and Union Rags, so he definitely likes the track.

His top Beyer is a 102 from the San Felipe, in a race where he impressively ran by Bodemeister in the stretch. But, it looks like Bode got the worst from a trip perspective. While he was pulling along to set a fast pace, Creative Cause was stalking back in 4th-5th, and made a move around the turn.

His Beyer figures from his last 4 races were 94, 102, 92 and 92....it's possible that the 102 is the outlier. I'm inclined to think it is a legit 102 though, as Bodemeister appeared to legitimize that race with his run in the Arkansas Derby.

The bad: He bounced from that race in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing 2nd to I'll Have Another in a photo. His Beyer that race was 94, and the race wasn't visually impressive, especially considering that Creative Cause got a near perfect trip. But....he didn't need to win that race (similar to Union Rags last race), and it's possible they didn't have him totally amped up for the Santa Anita, preferring to focus on the big prize ahead.

He wore blinkers in his San Felipe (102 Beyer), then switched to no blinkers in the Santa Anita. The reports are that he will still have no blinkers for the Kentucky Derby. In general I am not a fan of going away from what worked in the best race of your career, but apparently the owner/trainer are going off of some less objective measure than speed rating and whether or not they won the race.

Betting strategy: He's probably going to be one of the top 4 choices, with odds settling somewhere around 8-1. Based on his one triple digit Beyer, and his victory over Bodemeister, he is definitely a significant threat to win. His running style suggests he should be able to carve out a decent trip a few lengths off the pace this time around as well. He has also never thrown a bad race, so you have to figure he will give it an honest try.

I don't feel he's the best horse in the field, but I definitely think he is one of the more honest, and could be worth using as a key horse in the Derby superfecta tickets.

Secret Circle - 2012 Kentucky Derby Preview

Over the next 2 weeks, I will be posting thoughts on many of the key 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders. Today is the 2nd of such profiles. Follow the link for the profile on Union Rags.

The good: Secret Circle is trained by Bob Baffert, who knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby, owning 3 winners to his credit (though I think it's deservedly 2 and a half, since he picked up War Emblem merely 2 weeks or so before the Derby).

He holds a win at Churchill Downs, which is always a positive for Derby prospects. That win also came in almost the best company around, as he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint, at odds of 2-5.

From a speed figure perspective he's a contender, with a top Beyer of 102, and 5 Beyers at 95 or over.

The bad : Let's move on to the bad at this point. His top 5 Beyer figures have come at the shorter distances, with 92's at his two longest races, the 1 1/16 mile Rebel and the 1 1/8 mile Arkansas Derby.

He doesn't pass the eye test either. In the previously mentioned Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint, which is run at 6 furlongs, he was weaving in and out in the stretch, with a 3 length margin reduced to a length at the wire. He lost the Sham Stakes in a 5 horse field at Santa Anita getting a great stalking trip at a mile distance. He followed that up with an impressive win in the Southwest Stakes for his top Beyer of 102, but he won that against a very weak field where he again got a perfect stalking trip. The Rebel may have been one of his best preparations for what he will see on the Derby, as he managed to sit a little further back of the pace, make a move on the turn, draw clear, but again floundered a bit in the late stretch to a fast closing Optimizer, who is nothing to speak of. His final prep was the 2nd place to Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby. 2nd to a huge race like that doesn't look bad on the surface, but if you watched that race, Secret Circle was struggling badly in the stretch, again drifted in and out in the lane, and was almost passed for 2nd.

These patterns are not a sign of a horse who wants more distance. Quite the contrary, I think he wants far less distance and may be best at distances between 6-8 furlongs. The 10 furlongs of the Derby will be far more than he ever bargained for. The only conceivable way he could win the race is to actually make the lead or the top 2 in very slow fractions, like 24 and change to the quarter, and 48 and change to the half, which is very unlikely the way this field is shaping up.

Betting strategy: With the emergence of Bodemeister and Dullahan as top contenders, he is very likely to be a nice price, maybe in the range of 20-1. The reality of it is that I think his win odds should be closer to 60-1. I think he stands very little chance of catching even the slightest piece of the pie given his limited distance ability. In my book he is a complete toss from all but the smallest of my tickets.

Sunday, Bloody Sunday

The title is appropriate. It was a bloody Sunday session for me this weekend. After grinding out decent winners early in the weekend, I had high hopes for adding to it, on Sunday which is historically my best day by far. Unfortunately, the results were not good.

A great start

A fish/donkey raises to 10 UTG (he has 100 behind - have played with him a lot recently and typically he flushes 300+ per session with awful overplays/bluffs/etc.), an older woman calls, and normally I would try to isolate the fish on the button with AQs, but decided to flat this time, to try to let him make a bigger mistake if I hit the flop. A woman in the blinds called as well. Flop is Q93. Fish bets 25, old woman folds, I flat call with the hope of letting him fire a final barrel at it. I am probably calling any card on the turn, with the lone exception maybe being a King. The blind folds as well. Turn is a 9, and he shoves the rest of his chips in. I call and hold against his KJ, so up an early 120.

They love their top pair

Tattooed guy limps, there is another limper and I make it 14 on the BTN with KsJs. Tattoo calls and rest fold. Flop Ax8s3s. Tattoo donks 15, I make it 50, and he pretty quickly calls. He has 125 or so behind. Turn is a low blank. Tattoo checks, and I check behind....I've pretty much decided he is married to his hand here and not likely to fold. River blanks out, he checks, and I give up and he shows A7o. I feel really good about this hand, as I think a turn/river shove is fruitless.

Good bluff

After a few limpers, I limp 6d4d in the CO, lady on btn limps, and we see flop 6 handed. Flop Tc8d5d. Flop flush draw (gutshot straight flush draw). Checks to me, I bet 10, the button puts 10 in the pot almost in unison, making me think she thought action was on her and she was betting 10. I get 2 other calls. Turn is a 3s, making my straight draw now open ended, along with my flush draw. Checks to me, I bet 40 - the small flop bet followed by a large turn bet has been a recipe for nice profit in the past. The button quickly calls (about 125 behind), rest fold. River Ah. I debate what I think is my standard amount of time, and then declare all-in. She almost snap calls with JhTh....for flopped top pair. She claimed to be agonizing over it, but the call was literally within 10 seconds of my bet. I do like how I played this hand, but one thing to consider when discussing the hand with Ryan, is why bother even playing it, despite my great position. I need to hit the board hard, and at the same time have somebody else make 2 pair for me to get paid.

Very next hand - Hello overplay!

I have topped off my stack to $200, and I raise Kc9c to 12 in the HJ. Older guy on button calls (210 behind), and fish from first hand calls (73 behind). Flop is KQ4r. Fish donks 15, I raise to 60, and surprisingly the button calls, and then the donk calls. My plan was to iso the fish, but the button calling 60 is a huge warning sign. For some reason though, I was strongly putting him on a draw like JT. Turn is another 4, donk shoves his last 13, and based on previous action I need to just call here. Instead I shove and he snap calls with KQ. River is an A, which means I would have won with AK or AA, two of the hands I was repping. Unfortunately I didn't have those.

In hindsight, I think just calling the flop bet was the way to go. That way, I give the donk rope, and also get to learn more about the buttons hand cheaply. Basically flushed 140 there.

Very next hand - WTF!!

I again top off to $200, and limp 97o in MP after 2 limpers. No excuse for the play, but obviously steaming a little. We see a flop 7 ways, and the flop comes A97, giving me bottom two. Tattoo from the A7 hand bets 12. Folds to me and I raise to 50. Folds to Tattoo and he re-raises to 90. God it feels like he has two pair here, but hands like A9, 99, 77 and even A7 are sometimes raising from the SB, so I slightly discount those. Based on the fact that it could look like I am steaming, and his prior play with only top pair, I elect to shove, and he snaps with A9 and holds up.

This hand I am on the fence on. In an ordinary spot, I think I could simply fold this, but with my steaming/losing dynamic, I think there are a lot of players that will go to war with just an ace here. Curious to hear other thoughts on this one.

The final hand

My stack is at about 175 on my final rebuy, I have been quiet for about 30 minutes. Two limpers and I make it 14 with AA. Button (150 behind) calls, and one of the limpers calls (200 behind). Both were new players, so they don't know how I have been running/playing/steaming. Flop is Q88. When the flop came out I was watching the button and he shook his head, which I took as a huge suggestion of strength. The limper leads out for 25 now. I flat, and the button flats. Turn is a 7, limper checks, I check, and button checks (????). River is a 4. Limper bets 25, I am 100% sure I am ahead of him, but fight off the urge to raise as I am still suspicious of the button. Button now raises to 100. Limper folds, and I go into the tank. I tell him this is the most obvious 8 in the world, and he laughs saying something like "You guys were betting it for me." I mutter something about running so bad today, and then fold my aces face up. He shows me 88 for flopped quads!!! So while I feel bad about the result, I feel very good about actually making the professional play when I was steaming and laying it down to obvious defeat. I'm fairly sure I lost the absolute minimum here.

Overall a really bad session after a promising start. The cards definitely weren't co-operating. I had AA and 99 once, lost them all, and in fact I can't recall winning a single hand with a pair, though I didn't have many either. But the main problem was I got caught bluffing once, made a total overplay in the K9 hand, and then the 97 hand that I am still on the fence on.

Union Rags - Kentucky Derby 2012 preview

I swear that I have been thinking about this for a while, and am not just coming up with this after Union Rags defeat at the hands of Take Charge Indy in last weekend's Florida Derby, you will just have to believe me on that. As I continue the several month long process of handicapping the Kentucky Derby field, something is sticking out like a sore thumb at me....the expected Derby favorite is once again a hugely overrated horse, and I can draw several legitimate comparisons between Union Rags, and Dialed In from 2011, and Lookin at Lucky (LAL) from 2010.

Speed Figures - Kentucky Derby winners typically have to run a 105 Beyer speed figure, just to have a chance at winning the Derby. For a while it was 108, but in the last few years, these lightly raced 3 year olds have had declining figures, so I'll set 105 as my benchmark. In 2010, LAL had a highest figure of 98 entering the Derby, with a next highest figure of 91. In 2011, Dialed In had a highest figure of 97, with a next highest figure of 93. In both cases, the horses were sent off as lukewarm favorites in the Derby, and in both cases I suggested that they did not deserve favoritism.

For 2012, that highly touted horse is Union Rags, his Fountain of Youth performance was visually impressive, as he appeared to do it easily, though his figure was an unimpressive 95. I should say right up front that I'm not generally a believer in the well subscribed theory that they didn't ask him to run, so he could have run better. Some of the best performances I have ever seen from a speed figure perspective have been when a horse wasn't asked for his all and allowed to run freely. So then Union Rags followed that performance up with his 3rd place in the Florida Derby. He was gaining in the final strides, but it was more of a sustained slow gain, then of a Derby winning rally that you like to see out of a horse. For that race, he got a paltry 93 speed figure. So his last 5 races he has run a 93, 95, 94, 92 and 95 speed figure. Does that sound like a horse that will be able to uncork a 105 on the first Saturday in May? I have my doubts.

In quickly looking at the other major prep races, there are some high speed figures out of horses expected in the field, like Creative Cause (102-San Felipe), Secret Circle (102-Southwest), Daddy Nose Best (100-Sunland), El Padrino (98-Risen Star), and even Hansen (95 - BC Juevenile and Gotham).

One other factor to take into account is that Churchill Downs is the type of track that some horses handle really well and some don't. Union Rags lost the Breeders Cup Juvenile by a head in November, in what many thought was a bad performance (his speed figure was a 94). The simple truth is that he may have run the best race he is capable of running at this point.

Jockey - For this part, I will just compare 2011 to 2012, as Julien Leparoux was on Dialed In in 2011, and will be on Union Rags in 2012. For full disclosure, Leparoux is one of my least favorite riders, but I will try to remain objective for this analysis. In 2011, everyone in the world knew it was going to be a very slow pace, except for maybe Julien Leparoux. While Shackleford was cantoring through fractions of 48 and change to the half (I believe one of the slowest ever in recent Derby history), Dialed In was 20 lengths back, going through a 1/2 mile in about 52-53 seconds (his previous 3 workouts were significantly faster than that, like 48-49 seconds), so he was certainly capable of maintaining better position with the pace. So whether it was poor preparation that led to this bad bit of riding, or poor recognition of the slow pace that was developing, that is squarely on Leparoux. It's no surprise that the horses that finished 1-4 in the Derby were all in the top 6 entering the stretch, as nobody could close into those slow fractions. Dialed In was able to pass some tiring horses but only managed to finish a well beaten 8th.

Now we move on to 2012. In the Florida Derby, Leparoux gave Union Rags a dismal ride. He kept him well back of a loose on the lead Take Charge Indy, through relatively slow fractions at Gulfstream. He kept him on the rail (or was kept on the rail by another rider, depending on what you believe), allowing other horses to be outside of him and bottle him up, and did nothing to try to correct for that. If you believe you have the best horse by a lot (like the Rags connections did in the Florida Derby), you keep yourself in the clear, travelling a wider trip if necessary to keep yourself out of trouble. Leparoux failed to do that.

Type of trip - You are going to hear an awful lot in the upcoming weeks about the type of trip that Union Rags got in the Florida Derby. I agree, he didn't get a good trip, but I wouldn't call it a bad one either. He got a bad ride, no doubt, but it wasn't as if he was checked or steadied, and had to start and stop his momentum. He got in a bad spot and had to wait for an opening, and probably move later than his jock would have preferred. This is the kind of trip that may result in a 2 length difference, if that, not a huge difference as many will suggest.

Now think back to 2010, the horse in question was LAL. He had had several troubled trips, so many figured he was capable of a lot more than he had shown to that point. He also had the added issue of breaking from the 1 hole, almost ensuring traffic troubles in the 20 horse field. In order to win, Garrett Gomez was probably going to have to either run more early than he would have liked to ensure position, or drop to the back of the pack, take a wide trip, covering a lot more ground, and then run everyone down. My suggestion was that the horse wasn't good enough to overcome all of that, and I was right, as he had another troubled trip and finished 6th.

On to 2011, where Dialed In earned the favorite role when Uncle Mo was scratched. Again you had a horse with very little tactical speed, who was going to have to drop to the back of the field, then maneuver through 19 horses to the wire, in what was expected to be a very slow pace. Again, this was way too much for him to overcome, unless he was a superhorse....which I think has been proven that he wasn't.

Now we move on to 2012. It's a little difficult to anticipate the type of trip at this point in the race, since we don't yet know who the pacesetters will be, but I believe Union Rags has more tactical speed than the previous 2 favorites. But I expect Leparoux to ride quite a bit different in the Kentucky Derby than he did in the Florida Derby, which may not be a good thing. Here's some quotes from a recent DRF article about the Florida Derby.

"Michael Matz, trainer of Union Rags, said jockey Julien Leparoux likely learned a lot about Union Rags in the race, and Matz said he had no problems with the tactics employed by jockey Javier Castellano – the former rider of Union Rags – aboard El Padrino.

“Hopefully, Julien learned a lot from it. That part of it is good. The rest was disappointing. He wasn’t able to run until he got to the eighth pole. Next time, maybe he’ll let him run away from the gate a little more. You just have to view it as a good lesson. The good thing is he came out of it okay, and we have five weeks to prepare for his next race.”"

I'm reading between the lines here, but my hunch is that Leparoux has "learned" from his mistakes here, and will be very likely try to keep Union Rags on the outside and in the clear, and maybe even use a little bit more of him early to keep him in good position. This is a great idea if you are the best horse in the field, and can win in spite of any bad trip / luck that you are dealt, but as I pointed out earlier this article, he is not the best horse in the field by any objective measure that one can use. If you force him to travel more ground than other horses in this field, I don't believe he is good enough to overcome it.

Betting strategy - Am I going to throw him off of my tickets? No, I will probably treat him like I did Dialed In last year. He won't be a horse that I key on, but I will probably wheel him in several positions, in case he does live up to his potential. But I will not be surprised in the least if he fails to hit the board, and in fact, I kind of expect a 4th-6th place finish for him.