2012 Preakness - Betting preview

Here are my initial Preakness thoughts.

1:  Tiger Walk - The outsiders in this race are just that, outsiders.  This one finished 4th in the Wood, a race in which the top finishers performed very poorly in the Derby.  Top Beyer of 90 puts him on the edge of hitting the board, so I will play for 4th, and maybe 3rd on a ticket without Bodemeister.

2:  Teeth of the Dog - Very lightly raced, so eligible to improve.  But another exiting the Wood Memorial, thus far a very un-key race.  His running style prior to the Wood suggests he would be close to the front, which would compromise his chances.   In the Wood he raced off the pace and passed some horses.  Of the outsiders, he's the one I feel may have the best chance of crashing the party.

3:  Pretension - Has a win over the surface, but that is about all there is to like.  Top Beyer of 83 thus far, would have to greatly improve to even hit the board.  Passing here.  

4:  Zetterholm - All of his wins are against NY breds, and at Aqueduct, one of my least favorite tracks.  He would also have to take a huge step forward in his toughest race by far.  Unless he gets some of the famous Dutrow drugs, he is a toss.

5:  Went The Day Well - Was running best late in the Derby, but then again, so was Ice Box in 2010, and I don't think he's hit the board since then.  The question to answer is, did he take a step forward due to improving, or was it more of a function of a dream pace scenario to nearly get to the leaders?  I'm inclined to think it was a little of both.  Did the race take much out of him, especially with the troubled trip?  Perhaps, but I am inclined to believe the connections, Team Valor and Graham Motion would have skipped the Preakness and waited for the Belmont if there were any fitness questions.  

6:  Creative Cause - I definitely like this horse.  He ran a very good 5th in the Derby, covering the most ground in the field.  It wasn't the difference in him not winning the race though, he just ran out of gas in the stretch, despite getting a dream pace scenario.  But I'm not sure I love the handling of the horse, from the whole blinkers decision, to flying him back to California after the Derby, then flying back to Maryland this week with a stop at Churchill....I'm not sure I would be primed for my best performance come Preakness, and am not sure Creative Cause will be either.  I think he is very likely to be 3rd-5th, though it's not inconceivable for him to win, I think it's unlikely.  I think this trail is taking something out of him, and will be playing him as such.  

7:  Bodemeister - The key horse to this race.  How do you handle him on the ticket? 

First things first, he is the best horse in this field.  His Kentucky Derby was a huge race, running blistering fractions and nearly hanging on for the win, while running a 99 Beyer.  But the best horst doesn't always win, or even hit the board.

Enough already with the talk about Trinniberg costing Bodemeister the Derby.  Watch the Derby.  Watch it again if you need to.  Bode broke fast, and Mike Smith seized the lead, which they say was the plan.  Fine, I am ok with that.  But why go so damn fast?  Trinniberg was there, but never was really pressing Bode, never tried to grab the lead, and Trinniberg showed that he is capable of sub 22 quarters in his previous races.  So the question becomes, was it Mike Smith just not having much pace presence, or did Bode simply want to go that fast?  I'm inclined to believe that Smith, being a veteran of thousands of races, knows what he was doing, and therefore Bode just wanted to go that fast.  

He is a super fast horse, all of his races show basically that.  He runs on the lead or right with the lead and carries his speed as far as it can go.  US horses are bred for speed.  Baffert is a former quarterhorse trainer and trains speed into his horses.  For California horses, especially with the return to dirt at Santa Anita, speed is a virtue.  

What I am getting at here is despite the absence of apparent speed in the race, getting an easy lead will be a myth for Bode?  Do you honestly expect him to run the opening quarter of a mile in 24 seconds?  The slowest he has ever went is 23 and 1/5 in the San Felipe.  If Smith tries to hold him and throttle him back, it may adversely affect his chances even more than going fast.  So he is going to be out there winging it, and seeing how far he can carry it.  

Now a big question....Is this too much too fast for him?  This is his 5th race in 10 weeks.  The Derby had to take something out of him, despite what the owner and trainer are saying.  Plum Pretty, racing for Baffert on Oaks Day, tried to come back in 3 weeks, made an easy lead, and could only hold 3rd against a weak field, despite looking like more of a standout than Bode is here.

So how do I see the race playing out?  I think Bode has the lead until the turn, I expect him to be headed by I'll Have Another there, and then the biggest questions are, 1) Does he quit?, and 2) Are there enough horses in the field good enough to pass him down the stretch to make this ticket pay big?

At this point I say that Bode is a great horse, but is he a monster?  Until proven otherwise, I will choose no here, and try to beat him.  

8:  Daddy Nose Best - What happened to this horse in the Derby?  No apparent excuse, and he got a great pace to run at.  My initial hunch about the Sunland Derby and El Camino preps being fraudulent is starting to ring true.  He got awesome trips to run at in both of those races, and posted speed figures that are likely higher than he is capable of producing in a normal scenario.  Therefore, I am inclined to not believe in him.  To perhaps clinch things for me, my favorite jockey, Julien Leparoux gets the mount.  That being said, I am likely to play him on the board on a non-Bode ticket especially. 

 9:  I'll Have Another - His Derby trip was so good, it couldn't have possibly taken as much out of him as it did Bode.  He has also beaten Creative Cause, one of the other big threats his last two races, so it looks like he is just better than him.  He traveled to Maryland immediately after the Derby, so he should be well acclimated to his surroundings, which is more than I can say for most of the rest of the field.  He will be able to track Bode right from the gate, should get a great stalking trip, and as long as he came out of the Derby well he is my pick to win.

10:  Optimizer - This horse just isn't very good.  His best race was against a weak field in the Rebel, and still only yielded a 91 Beyer, his best by 8 points.  I think his best chance is 4th, again maybe 3rd on a non-Bode ticket.  

11:  Cozzetti - He ran 4th to Bode in the Arkansas Derby, but was beaten by 10 lengths.  Before that he ran 3rd to Perspective in the Tampa Bay Derby, and he did nothing in the Kentucky Derby.  So initially he looks like he should be a toss.  I'll probably play him as high as 3rd on selected tickets, and likely 4th on the rest.

Decisions, decisions:

So now how do we play this race?  I'm inclined to take a stand against Bodemeister, for better or for worse.  I know that he is the best horse in this field, but a few circumstances of the race lead me to believe that he is more vulnerable than you would expect.  

My plan is to wheel around I'll Have Another, with a secondary key horse being Went the Day Well.   I'll probably be chasing strictly superfecta's, with my tickets framed likely framed like this:

9 / 5 / 2,6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11 (or potentially all)

9 / 5 / 1 ,10,11 / 2,6,7,8 

9 / 6,7,8 / 5 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11

9 / 6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11 / 5

And then wheeling around the 9 in 2nd and 3rd, with the 5 finishing in 1st and 2nd, with potentially the 6,7,8 on top as well. 

Kentucky Derby 2012 trip report

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Thursday saw us leave Michigan around 4pm.  Al by himself in one car, Erik, Dave and Doug in Erik's car, and myself and Jim in my car.  We stopped for a bite at Arby's somewhere in Ohio, picked up Mert in Cincy, and made it to Louisville around 11pm.  After checking into the hotel, this time the Comfort Suites in Louisville on Paramount Parkway - which we got for a song at a rate of $109 per night, they were going for $429 per night online a few days before the trip - we made our way out for what is now the annual trip to Trixies.  

After we got there (minus Al, who apparently fell asleep in his room and missed the festivities), we immediately started on the beer, as well as shooting pool.  The vibe was pretty dead when we got there, and the "dancers" were about the same.  A few girls were trying to get our attention, but they were nasty, and we were more interested in our own thing than what little they had to offer.  At this point Erik discovered the punching bag machine, where your punch strength is measured.  Here is some video of Erik running across the bar to get a head of steam before punching it.  Here is a link in case the embedded video below doesn't work.

Also here is Jim punching said machine.  Here is a link in case the embedded video below doesn't work.

Our group must have put $100+ into that machine at $1 a pop throughout the night, betting more and more money as the night went on.  Finally near the end I decided to give it a go.  I figured I would be one of the weakest ones, but once I saw Dave's piss poor effort, I figured there was no way I could do worse.  It turned out that I had the second highest score of the night, which was much to the chagrin of people who were betting against me.   Unfortunately, I wasn't able to make much on myself for whatever reason.  Theories were abound as to how I was able to get the 2nd highest number, with Dan's theory being that since I am an Engineer, I was able to somehow determine the optimum angle of attack / trajectory.  My theory is that most of the guys are bigger pussies than they think, while I am less of a pussy than they think.

We ended up staying until 3am, which as usual makes Oaks day difficult to handle.  

Friday, May 4, 2012 - Oaks Day

We grabbed the usual parking spots at Charlie and Phil's, had some beers for the road, and made our way to Churchill. The day started off slowly, with a few marginal hits.  Sonny hit a few signers, but he was putting a lot into the races to hit them, so while building a profit, it wasn't as big as it would have seemed.   In the 6th race, 2011 Kentucky Oaks runner Plum Pretty looked very good on paper, but my friend Erin had a theory that she was tired, and was vulnerable.  I have no recollection about how I profited from that race, but I am fairly sure I did, as she ran 3rd behind Juanita and St Johns River.  

Then in the 7th race I got something going with a superfecta that I shared with the Dave and Erik.  I didn't think we had it at first, I think I wheeled on the 21-1 longshot in 1st and 2nd, and she ran 3rd, but then I realized I did have her for 3rd on one ticket, and the longest shot on the board ran 4th.  I had also started a pick 5 ticket with both Dave and Erik on this race, where most of the money was focused on the winner of the 7th race, and singling on Stephanies Kitten in the 8th, who I felt was a standout in that field.  Unfortunately, because I had opened a pick 5 already, I chose not to open any pick 4 tickets, since the combinations were duplicated.  The 8th race went as expected with Stephanies Kitten winning by a comfortable 2 lengths.  The 9th race was a good result, as the 3rd choice, Successful Dan won, which helps the pk5 payout as well.  The 10th race was a difficult race, and my two key horses were the 13 and 14.  Because of my pick 5, I chose not to put money into the race, and was slightly upset to see the race come in 13-10-14, and pay $14K on the superfecta, and $1300 on the trifecta.  But, we were through with the 3rd choice again in the pick 5.  There was also a long weather delay before the 10th race, where they actually evacuated the infield and grandstand, so part of the reason I didn't bet the race was because of uncertainty with (A) whether the race would stay on the turf, and (B) how the track would be playing following the rain. 

The Oaks was closing out the pick 5, and we thought the race was very wide open.  We had 6 possible horses to win, with some really good payoffs on the longshots.  Our hopes were rewarded when Rosie Napravnik brought in Believe You Can at 14-1 to win the Oaks, getting us one of our best results, a payout of $1595 for the .50 cent pick 5.  It was the first pick 5 that I had ever hit.  As I mentioned before, the pick 4 which I had neglected to play and was easy to hit based on my handicapping, as I got it AABA, paid $750 on a .50 cent bet.  

By the conclusion of Oaks Day, most people were doing well, with Sonny up over 1K, myself up about 200.  Al was up, and Dave and Erik weren't doing badly either.  The only person not doing so well was Doug, who was the victim of losing some large win bets on prohibitive favorites.  

After the Oaks, we went to the Mexican restaurant next to the hotel.  Seeing that the following day was Cinco de Mayo, it not only seemed appropriate, it seemed prudent since the following day would likely be very crowded.  I could barely touch my burrito due to the copious amounts of chips and salsa I consumed prior the burrito delivery.  Sonny ordered the "Burrito gigante", which lived up to its name.  We played credit card roulette for the bill, which Doug lost.  Fortunately for Doug, he and Jim bought insurance for each other, so they split the bill.

After the Mexican food, a few of us went out to the Godfather, a place we have been a time or two.  It was me, Jim, Doug, Sonny and Erin who were the troopers.  Not much to add here, as we just had some beers and shot the shit.

Saturday, May 5, 2012 - Derby day

Derby day started out well.  We got to our normal parking place, and Al actually paid for a guy to "shuttle" us to the entrance in a golf cart.  This would save from the inevitable "chaf-age" from walking far in the heat.  Unfortunately, the golf cart couldn't go all the way to the main entrance due to the way pedestrian/vehicle traffic was routed, so it didn't end up saving us much time or effort. 

    

When we got to the track, I kept my betting fairly small for the most part.  Part of the problem was that the races were difficult, part of it was that I wasn't feeling well, and part of it was that I was showing a little bit of discipline, since my horse betting has been pretty bad since last years Derby.  So I apologize to anyone who was counting on any of my handicapping and/or help on the days races.  The sad truth is that I likely wouldn't have been a lot of help. 

It appeared to be a sound decision on my part, as nobody in our group seemed to be doing anything very well, save for Jim, who continued to be mysterious with his betting for the entire weekend.  (He did buy picks from some online source....I doubt they did very well).  For the weekend then I have absolutely no clue how well he did, somewhere between winning a grand and losing 2 grand I would say (I told you he was being mysterious).  

It also didn't seem to be a very prudent idea to put much money into races I had handicapped for 10-20 minutes, in comparison to the Derby which I had spent 10-20 hours handicapping and thinking about.  So I was essentially saving myself for the Derby.  

As expected, we had no shortage of money to put into the Derby superfecta.  Previous years we have put in 1440, 1500ish, 2000ish, and 2400.  This year our team put together 4K to put into the race, and that was with Sonny putting in far less than he had invested in previous years, leaving him only 25% of our tickets.   Knowing it was a tough race, I knew we needed all of the money we could put together.  

Everyone in our team agreed to key Gemologist, which apparently turned out to be very wrong.  But we had difficulty identifying a 2nd horse to key.  I liked Bodemeister a lot, but it didn't make a lot of sense to key on 2 horses who were likely to be near the front of what we expected to be quick early fractions.  After much debate and discussion, we settled on Union Rags, despite the linked article where I basically shit on his chances.  The reason being that even though he wasn't likely good enough to win, he appeared to run a decent race every time, and that race gave him a decent shot at hitting the board.  Plus, he was likely to be off of the hot pace.  Here's how we shaped our tickets, and how the investors shook out.

As we tend to say in horse racing, you can't play em' all, and I'll Have Another was one of the last horses we eliminated from the win portion of the ticket, and I even went as far as to recommend throwing him completely off of the ticket.  My reasoning made sense, in that from the 19 hole I expected him to be very forwardly placed, as that was the running style he had shown in all of his previous races.  Consequently, I expected him to be hung 4-5 wide on the first turn, while tracking a very hot pace.  His jockey, being in his first Kentucky Derby and relatively inexperienced, would not be capable of calming himself down, or his horse, and would burn his energy out very early.  Essentially I'll Have Another got the trip that I was thinking/hoping that Gemologist would get. 

What happened in reality was that I'll Have Another was able to get him into a great position entering the first turn about two spots out from the rail, and in an area where he was almost all by himself, with no traffic around him.  This was the key to the victory in my opinion.  In almost every Derby, the winner finds himself in a great spot on the first turn, and encounters very little traffic the whole way. 

Mike Smith on the other hand, I'm not sure what he was doing all Derby day....first he moves WAY too soon on Amazombie, basically heading Shackleford on the turn.  Shackleford is as game as they come, and you don't want to run neck and neck with him for over 1/4 of a mile, especially when the distance is more of a question for your horse than his.  Then in the Derby, he immediately seizes the lead from the start on Bodemeister, which apparently was the plan of Bob Baffert all along.  This part I have no problem with, but the part I do have a problem with is them blaming Trinniberg for the hot pace.  Trinniberg was up close, but it didn't appear to me that he at any time tried to get the lead from Bodemeister.  Smith just didn't harness enough of his speed to last, and consequently ran through lightening fast fractions, and ran a HUGE race to nearly hold on.  

So as I said before, I take the blame for leaving the winner off of our tickets, but since our key horses both missed the board, it wasn't to be.  I will take the credit for predicting Rags poor run and bad trip in my previous write-up.  It appears Julien Leparoux will lose the mount on him, after failing to follow instructions, and even going as far as suggesting that he heard a pop on Rags on the turn, yet still riding him to a closing 7th place finish.  What's the deal Julien?  If he was hurt, why continue riding him?  Just admit that you gave him yet another bad ride, and that you are afraid of sticking a horse in a tight spot Calvin Borel style.

As an aside, I read an article on the Derby the other day that bears mentioning.  The article basically suggested that unless you have top end speed (like Bodemeister), the outside/auxiliary gate is where you not only want to be, but NEED to be.  This means posts 15-20.  The likelihood of you getting a cleaner trip far outweigh any ground you are going to lose.  This is a point that I definitely already knew, however the top end speed thing is something I hadn't thought of but makes sense.  I will not let drawing an outside post position affect me one iota, unless they are a horse I expect on the lead.  

Basically the entire group got whitewashed on the Derby, save for Erin hitting a small win bet on the winner.  I hit a win bet in one of the last 2 races, but basically ended up down about a grand on Derby day, with basically all of it coming on the Derby itself.  

Following the Derby, we decided to hit the Chinese buffet.  I suggested this was a bad intestinal idea (as Dan will affirm to, since he spent 30+ minutes in the community bathroom in the hotel).  What was another bad idea was the credit card roulette, which saw me losing and footing the $150 bill.  I have probably lost 3 of my last 6 times at CCR, and decided that credit card will be retired from the battle, and I proceeded to use another on at breakfast the next morning.  

After dinner, a few of us (Me, Dave, Erik, Jim, Sonny and Doug) went back to Trixies.  We managed to get Jim  and Dave a nice motorboat, and Sonny broke our groups record at the punching bag machine.  I neglected to try, as I didn't think I could beat Sonny's mark, and also didn't want to hurt my hand anymore than it already did (from an errant shot two nights before).  

The aftermath

Overall a very fun trip, despite ending in financial disappointment for all.  Hopefully I'm able to apply some of the lessons learned from this year's Derby into next years Derby.

My next effort at credit card roulette, using a different credit card at the Waffle House nearby the hotel, was successful, as Erik was the victim. 

Lessons learned

As I mentioned before.  We've seen it countless times.  The auxiliary gate is the place to be.  It's not good, but the inside is "less good".  

For god's sake, when there is a horse with standout speed figures, ala Bodemeister, make that horse one of your key horses. 

Just because you have Pick 5 tickets live, doesn't mean you can't play Pick 4, especially when you have a few strong opinions upcoming.  That decision likely cost me at least $750.

Final 2012 Kentucky Derby preview

Here is the final Kentucky Derby field, with my prediction at the end of this.  Recall that last year I pegged the exacta in reverse order, and on track hit the trifecta and superfecta (as a team on the last bet).

1 - Daddy Long Legs - I didn't want to use him before, and him drawing the rail assures it.  Until proven otherwise, Aidan O'Brien does not know how to win the Kentucky Derby.

2 - Optimizer - Basically an outsider in this group.  I can play him for 4th....maybe.....and even then I don't feel very good about it.

3 - Take Charge Indy -Definitely a tough one to figure.  Borel will get the rail as long as he wants it.

4 - Union Rags - Everybody in my Derby group is falling into the same trap, expecting him to take a step forward despite no evidence that he can, and paying a terrible price to boot.  Does he have the talent?  I don't know, but you are paying 9-2, near favoritism for the POSSIBILITY.

5 - Dullahan -  He probably would have rather drawn a bit further outside, but I don't think it's a big deal.  I'm inclined to say he's much more likely in 5th-8th place, than 1st-4th.

6 - Bodemeister - I think it's a very good draw.  The question is can Smith get him to settle at the right pace to be able to carry his speed.  It may all depend on how fast Trinniberg goes. 

7 - Rousing Sermon - Outsider closer that may have a chance for 4th.

8 - Creative Cause - Most of my group is souring on him.  I'm not sure that I have yet.  Yes, he has hung a bit in the stretch, but he beat Bodemeister once.

9 - Trinniberg - He's a speedster, and I think he will lead for about 7/8 of a mile, and then fade.  I'll be wheeling him in 19th and 20th place on all tickets. 

10 - Daddy Nose Best - My daughters pick, but I think she is biased.  I think he would need a perfect setup and trip to win, don't think he will get it. 

11 - Alpha - Everything seems to be shaping up well for him.  Good draw, training up well, added distance.  Big threat. 

12 - Prospective - Hard to see better than 4th for this outsider.

13 - Went The Day Well - I think he will be overrated based on the Animal Kingdom comparisons, but the simple fact is that despite his running style, he is not well suited for this distance.  I'm inclined to toss him.

14 - Hansen - Is game, but I just don't think he will want the distance.  3rd at best, but I think he fades to 7th or 8th. 

15 - Gemologist - He drew perfectly, and is a huge threat to win. 

16 - El Padrino - Not a bad draw for him either.  An outside threat at the win.

17 - Done Talking - The less time I talk about him, the better off I am.

18 - Sabercat - Another outsider that could maybe crash the party if the pace collapses.  Thinking no though.

19 - I'll Have Another - I don't think he is as good as some of the others here, so I am inclined to pass. 

20 - Liaison - He has Baffert and bad form.  I pass. 

21AE - My Adonis - Maybe he could crash the party also if the pace totally collapses, and that's even if he gets in the field.  I will pass.


Now, the big moment....the prediction....in what is maybe the most difficult Kentucky Derby I have ever handicapped.

1st - Alpha
2nd - Bodemeister
3rd - Gemologist
4th - Take Charge Indy

El Padrino - 2012 Kentucky Derby preview

This is another one I just have no clue how to deal with.

The Good:
1)  One of only 4 horses who has a triple digit Beyer speed figure, a 100 in a non-winners of 1 race at Gulfstream, on a "good" track, a race in which he beat Take Charge Indy.
2)  His Risen Star race got a 98 Beyer at Fairgrounds.  Combine that with a win at Belmont, and he has won on 3 different tracks. 
3)  There is stamina in his bloodlines, with both AP Indy and Giants Causeway as "grandparents". 
4)  His stalking style is almost a perfect fit for the Derby. 
5)  Pletcher....despite the Derby record one of the best in the business.  

The Bad:
1)  Horses out of Pulpit in general haven't seemed to get the Derby distance.  Pulpit himself faded in the last eighth of a mile.  El Padrino has seemed to flatten out a bit in the end of his races.
2)  Both of his starts at 1 and 1/16 miles were revelations, then he regressed in the Florida Derby.  A closer look at that race though may provide a reason for the struggle.  He raced wide most of the way, and in watching that race, it seemed jockey JJ Castellano was more interested in keeping Union Rags in tight along the rail, then he was in racing his own horse.  You can bet that Rafael Bejarano will not make that mistake in the Derby.  Because of that, I argue that you could almost completely discount this race from his record. 
3)  2 of his 3 wins were on an off track.  It can definitely be argued that his chances increase if the going is wet. 

Betting strategy:
Is he going to be overlooked?  I'm not sure.  His speed figures fit, his running style fits, he has one of the best trainers and a good jock.   He also shares my birthday, which probably can't be a bad thing.  I think he will go off around 12-1 or so, and I think that's a pretty good price on him.

So in the 30-45 minutes that I just spent devouring his past performances and race history, I believe I have talked myself into including him on most of my tickets, and believe he has a legitimate shot at winning. 

Daddy Nose Best - 2012 Kentucky Derby preview

The horses I'm doing near the end are clearly the ones that I have the least informed opinion of, outside of the outsiders that I don't plan on dedicating a single post to.  Daddy Nose Best is one of those horses that I have really been wrestling with in my mind.

The good:
1.  He is one of only 4 horses with a triple digit Beyer in the field, which will be required to win this race.
2.  He has twice won at a distance of a mile and an eighth.
3.  This is his third race of the year, which is again typically a big effort in the form cycle. 
4.  His running style suggests he will be a deep closer in this field, which figures to be good for him as it looks like a hot pace for this year.
5.  He has won on all 3 surfaces, which suggests that he shouldn't have a problem with the track. 
6.  All reports indicate that he is training up really well.

The bad:
1.  I believe he was the beneficiary of an absolutely PERFECT trip in the Sunland Derby, and think that speed figure may not be attainable under conditions any more adverse than what he received there.
2.  His ability to get the distance is a question mark.  His sire, Scat Daddy won the Florida Derby at a mile and an eighth, but Scat Daddy ran 18th in the Derby. 
3.  While his win was impressive in the Sunland Derby, it didn't appear that he was relishing the last eighth of a mile, which makes me question how much he wants another furlong.  But, the time for that final quarter mile was 12 and change, which wasn't all that bad.   
4. The first two starts of his career were at Churchill, with one being a decent 2nd in a MSW, and the other one being a  badly beaten 7th in another MSW. 
5.  His running style, while it may be flattered by the Derby pace, will likely require him to travel very wide, or weave through traffic.


Betting strategy: 
I'm thinking he's going to go off at 18-1 or so, which is a great price based on his last race Beyer.  He is getting largely overlooked due to the quality in this field.  He should definitely get a good pace to run at, and is one of the few in this field who you would expect to be running late.  I can't use him as a key horse, but I can certainly use him on my tickets, perhaps even as high as the win.