I have bit my tongue for far too long on this issue (unless you ask my closest friends or my wife). This Jose Valverde experiment is annoying the absolute piss out of me for more reasons than I can count (though I will try in the below post).
The raw numbers:
I thought we were through with this mess at the end of last year. I could see it coming a mile away....anyone with a reasonable baseball IQ who watches the game and understands statistics could see it coming. The guy clearly wasn't the same pitcher in 2012 that we was in previous seasons. Here is his K/INN rate since 2007, the year he became a full time closer with Arizona: 1.21, 1.15, 1.04, 1.00, 0.95, 0.70. Pretty distinct trend there, and something that you could see plainly with the naked eye. The guy was simply struggling to miss bats (more on that later), which is the primary thing a pitcher can control.
What makes this more annoying is that I would have to read articles, and hear people on sports radio touting his high save percentage, and that he is still getting the job done. This was exactly the wrong kind of negative reinforcement that the Tigers brass did not need, as they were constantly putting a pitcher into a critical situation, who was getting by on pure good fortune in a small sample size.
He has 2 pitches
I only say this because I've heard a rumor that Valverde actually has 2 pitches, a fastball, and a splitter. I say it's a rumor because I can't recall seeing anything other than a fastball in the last 1 year plus. Let's first ignore the absurdity of any pitcher ever getting to the highest level of the game and only throwing 1 pitch - a fastball, as it seems ridiculous to me to for it to even be done at a high school level.
So let's first assume that throwing only 1 pitch is rational. If that's the case, you would have to assume that fastball is a top shelf plus pitch, probably lighting up the radar gun near 100 MPH with a good deal of movement, and perhaps even good location and command. That's not the case with Valverde, his fastball regularly clocks in around 91-94 MPH, with the occasional blip at 96 MPH if he somehow catches a hot radar gun. Movement??? What movement, the damn thing seems to be straight as an arrow, flat with zero drop. The capper to this? He can't even control it, evidenced by his recent outing on May 12th, where he walked the leadoff hitter, and throughout the inning had thrown more balls than strikes.
During yesterday's outing, Rod Allen, the Tigers color commentator, who has rarely had an insight that I considered to be groundbreaking, pointed out that of Valverde's first 20 pitches, all were fastballs. No shit!!! If Allen can recognize it, then you better believe other teams are going to pick up on it (unless you are as blind as the Tigers apparently).
Imagine your hitting approach when facing Valverde. You have to be patient, as you don't know whether he is going to throw strikes. You are sitting dead red on fastball, as there is zero chance you are going to receive anything other than that. If you happen to get behind in the count by letting a good fastball go by, not to worry, you are certainly going to get another one.
At this point (and it was the same last year), Valverde is throwing the ball hard, trying to get it over the plate, with zero movement and basically hoping that the other team either doesn't hit it hard, or hits it right at somebody.
Intangibles - settling effect on the bullpen
It's been argued, primarily by Tigers brass, that installing Valverde as the closer has a settling effect on the rest of the bullpen, as the other pitchers better know their roles. They do have a point to this, but this could also be achieved by naming me the closer....or anyone else on the team.
Others may argue that if you don't have a replacement in mind, then you can't argue Valverde being the closer. To that I agree, so my response is ANYONE on the roster, and quite possibly anybody on the AAA roster. I would even allow Don Kelly a shot at it, at least he threw an off-speed pitch in the inning he pitched a couple of years ago.
Conclusions:
There comes a point when the tangibles begin to outweigh the intangibles, we can only hope that day comes before the real games start (and this is assuming we win the division and are in the playoffs, which is a giant leap this early in the season. Having Valverde as the closer is doing the entire team and fanbase a great disservice, as it is not putting the team in anywhere near the best position to win a game, championship, etc....
Monday, May 13, 2013
Thursday, May 02, 2013
2013 Kentucky Derby preview
My prediction is at the bottom of this lengthy post. I may update this as I think about the race a little further.
1. Black Onyx - Disastrous draw for him. His running style seems to be the worst for this spot possible, as he tends to stalk close to the lead (within 5 lengths of the lead at every call in his career). It will be very difficult to get good position without either using a lot of his horse early, or laying way back and coming with one big run. Add to that his best two races have been on turf and poly, means you are asking him to do an awful lot.
Verdict - I can play him for 4th, and maybe 3rd since I think he will be coming late, but I think any better is asking for the world.
2. Oxbow - Another who did not get the best draw. Off of a bit of a bad trip in his last race, and if you excuse the last race he would be a bit more highly regarded. Ridden by Gary Stevens, and out of Awesome Again, meaning the distance should not be a problem. The bad news is that in his last 3 races he has been beaten by 4 of these, and they are not the most highly regarded of the bunch.
Verdict - I have a feeling I'm going to want him on my tickets. The jockey/trainer combo, combined with the pedigree and the long odds make him one of the more attractive if not the most attractive bomb in the field. Not enough for the win, but maybe as high as 2nd.
3. Revolutionary - Off of 3 straight wins, and out of the red hot barn of Pletcher. It was nice to see him race and win outside of New York too at the Fairgrounds. The bad news is that he was life and death to beat Mylute, a horse who I don't think wants any part of more distance. He does have a 102 BSF in his maiden win at Aqueduct, but it was on an off track, which is something I am always skeptical of. Take that race out of his record, and his highest BSF is 93, which puts him outside of the top players. I like the War Pass connections, and Borel in the Derby can never be a bad thing. He seems to be training awesome at Churchill, and with Churchill being a bit of a unique surface in horses taking to it, you can't ignore it.
Verdict - I like him as one of my key horses, though I think he is a cut below the top tier. It would be a terrible idea to ignore him based on the awesome training tab leading up to the race, and the Borel/Churchill factor. That being said, he is likely to be a bit overbet due to Calvin.
4. Golden Soul - Another who could crash the party coming late, and make tickets pay a ton. He closed well in the La Derby, but was no match for the winner. Good result in past race at Churchill, and Albarado knows Churchill.
Verdict - On my tickets for 4th for sure, and maybe as high as 3rd.
5. Normandy Invasion - By Tapit, who is a great sire, but he's never been known to sire horses for much more distance than a miler. Did finish less than a length off Verrazano, but you have to wonder how wound up they had Verrazano for that race, since they didn't need it to make the field. His best races have been at Aqueduct, which is a track I am always a little skeptical of, as it seems to be one of those "horse for the course" type of places. He seems to be training very well leading up to this.
Verdict - I think I can play him for as high as the win in some tickets, but I'm just not sure the mile and a quarter is right for him. I feel like he is going to be overbet. I do have a small future wager on him at 17-1, but that would not even come close to covering my Derby bets.
6. Mylute - Looked like he had every chance to beat Revolutionary, yet couldn't get past him in the Louisiana Derby. It won't get any easier with added distance and a much tougher field. He closed well in the Louisiana Derby, which was a new dimension for him, but that may have been more due to the swift early pace, rather than discovering a new running style. Top speed figure of 93, combined with distance limitations being out of Midnight Lute don't give me a feeling he is ready to take a step forward with the added distance.
Verdict: I'm not particularly fond of him, but may have to use him since he will be one of the few who are running late.
7. Giant Finish - Best race thus far has been on Poly, and he couldn't beat Black Onyx while being in the front end of a slow pace. There are better horses who will be near the front end than this one. In my book he is a toss.
Verdict: Toss him
8. Goldencents - Needed a big Santa Anita Derby to get in, and responded with a lifetime best performance, and perhaps most importantly a 105 beyer. The SA Derby was a path to win the Derby last year, validating it as a prep race again now that it is on dirt. Rookie jockey, coupled with a horse that has had trouble relaxing in some of his races can be a somewhat scary combination (though the rookie jock had no problem last year). I also question his ability at the distance, being out of Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday. We saw with Shenghai Bobby just how much distance he wanted.
Verdict - The good news is I have a future bet on him at 49-1, the bad news is that I don't think it cashes. I think he's going to be very close to the lead, and unless allowed to go very slowly and freely on that lead, I think he's a player until the far turn, when he will get swallowed up by the closers. My initial inclination is to leave him off the tickets entirely, as reckless as that may seem.
May 2nd update: Upon further review though, that does seem totally reckless to ignore him. He has a tie for the highest last race Beyer, has the highest last race Beyer in the field (an angle that has produced a few surprising longshot winners in Charismatic and War Emblem), and will be forwardly placed in a race without a lot of pace. I still think he will be too aggressive early and not be able to hold for the distance, but ignoring him could be a fatal flaw.
9. Overanalyze - From the Pletcher barn, which means you have to respect him. His Arkansas Derby win was visually impressive, but yielded a very low Beyer of 88. On the down side, a turd like Frac Daddy finished 2nd, which immediately calls into question the quality of the race. Out of Dixie Union, which I believe is the same sire as Union Rags, and those horses are always very well regarded. He showed big time ability in the Remsen Stakes as a 2 year old last year, throwing a 99 beyer. He hasn't broke 90 in either of his races this year yet, but the way he has been training leading up to this has been solid. He is very gutty as well, as it appeared that he would be beaten in the Remsen, after Normandy Invasion passed him, and he came again.
Verdict - I have a nice future bet on him also at 49-1. He is one that I am unsure what I am going to do with right now.
10. Palace Malice - By Curlin, it's a bit early to decide how good he is as a sire. He hasn't won since breaking his maiden at Saratoga in August, and his highest Beyer figure is a 94, with that number trending in the wrong direction as the distance increases. Without a significant improvement he is a cut below the best in this field, and he has been training OK leading up to this race, which just isn't good enough in my book.
Verdict - I think I will use him 4th if at all.
11. Lines of Battle - Until Aiden O'Brien proves to me he can travel here for the Derby and compete, he should continually be bet against. Same goes for horses traveling the Dubai route. But the simple truth is that the outsiders that I have been listing outside of the top contenders are so unappealing to me I have to search for a few who may be able to make some noise. He's out of War Front, which is respectable for getting the distance. He just won the UAE derby in decent fashion, however that field was thought to be somewhat weak. The fact that he has never raced on a dirt is scary enough, and it would make me feel a lot better if he were at Churchill training and growing accustomed to the track (ala Animal Kingdom), but I don't believe that has happened either.
Verdict: Unless I see a phenomenal love the track workout, I'm going to have to pass on him.
12. Itsmyluckyday - He nearly has the highest Beyer in the field, but is he just a horse for Gulfstream? He was looking like a potential Derby favorite, until Orb ran by him like he was tied to a post in the Florida Derby. He was still able to hang on for 2nd in that race. Reports have him training well leading up to the race. Sired by Lawyer Ron, who I don't believe is the most suited to mile and a quarter distance.
Verdict - He will be forwardly placed, and potentially in an ideal position on the far turn, and I wouldn't be surprised if he would make the lead on the turn or at the top of the stretch. I think it would be unwise to ignore him, especially because he may be one of the forgotten horses here, and go off at decent odds.
13. Falling Sky - May be the pace setter, or at least will be pressing the pace. Top beyer of a 92 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, nor does being sired by Lion Heart, who actually had the lead in the stretch of the 2004 Derby, but that was a day when early speed dominated, and the track was sloppy following a monsoon. It would take a similar result to let him hit the board in my opinion.
Verdict - Toss him
14. Verrazano - Looks to be the obvious Derby favorite, and deserving at that. Done nothing wrong so far, winning all of his starts, with 2 speed figures over 100 or better, including a 105, which is likely required to win this. Pletcher is hot as hell with his 3 year olds as well. His 4 wins are at 3 different tracks.
There is no bad with him right now, just questions. His sire, More Than Ready, was 4th in the 2000 Kentucky Derby, and sure didn't seem like he wanted that last furlong. I also can't recall any of his progeny being championship caliber horses at the classic distance. He has been very forwardly placed in all of his races thus far. Typically in the Derby you want to be sitting a little further back due what is usually a hot pace. Can he relax enough to get a good trip?
Verdict - He looks to be a dominant player, and he should be ignored at your own risk.
15. Charming Kitten - He's a Kitten's Joy horse who just threw his career high Beyer on polytrack....hmmm....and now he's coming to the Derby. We already went through this with Dean's Kitten a few years ago, and he ran 14th more highly regarded than this one. That career high Beyer, again on Polytrack, was only an 88. So you have to find reason to think he is going to improve double digit points on a surface that Kitten's Joy progeny have proven to not have an affinity for, to believe he can hit the board. And he also has to do it on a surface that he has never run on before, as well as only having a 3rd in 2 starts on the Poly. He does have Pletcher, but he's probably fairly busy with his top contenders.
Verdict - Toss him
16. Orb - Unbeaten in his last 4 starts. Speed figures are a little bit light, with a high of 97, however perhaps more impressively, he closed 3 times at Gulfstream, most of which is on the outside, which is atypical of that track, where a traditional inside speed bias exists. Sired by Malibu Moon, with AP Indy in his bloodline, the distance shouldn't be a problem. He also is not a typical 1 run deep closer, as he has been within 5 lengths of the front at all calls of both the Florida Derby and his claiming win in January.
On 4/29 he had what many consider to be the most impressive work of anyone in the field, and he has Rosario on the mount, who is winning everything in sight, and riding with extreme confidence right now.
Verdict - He feels like a key horse to me if there ever was one.
17. Will Take Charge - He kinda came out of nowhere to win the Rebel at 28-1, following an awful performance in the Southwest Stakes. That win was at Oaklawn, which is a track that tends to portend future Churchill success, but then again so was the Southwest. He raced at Churchill last year, finishing last in a Grade 2 race out of 13 horses. Looking at that field now and their poor recent results, it has to lead you to believe that race was a fluke. With a top speed figure of 95, in a race that I already believe was a fluke, leads me to believe that this horse is a throwaway to the tickets. As for the pedigree, Unbridled was a Derby winner, but his son, Unbridled's Song was more of a miler (led the Derby top of stretch before fading to 5th in 1996).
Verdict - Toss him
18. Frac Daddy - I'm not a big fan of Scat Daddy horses in general, and this one has been a turd this year, having to gut out a 2nd place on less than 2 weeks rest in a weak Arkansas Derby to make this field. What gives on a bit of pause though is that his 2 best races last year both occurred at Churchill Downs. The question you have to answer for yourself is "Is he a better horse at Churchill, or was he a better horse last year?" Nothing he has done this year says he can even hit the board, with an 81 beyer for a high!!! He did throw a 91 at Churchill last year, so it at least makes me consider him.
Verdict - He should be an easy toss based on current form, but the Churchill results will at least make me consider playing him in 3rd place, but probably not at all above that.
19. Java's War - I was very impressed visually with his Blue Grass, though the speed figure was only 89. His inability to break cleanly in any of his starts is very worrisome. With this year's pace scenario more likely to be tepid than hot, getting a clean break is even more paramount. Having Leparoux in a big race in a Derby field, I would expect a less than clean trip, and probably a belated effort late on the outside. Good post position draw though for him, actually helps Leparoux as being on the outside should help him stay out of trouble.
Verdict - The pace scenario is likely to not be in his favor, his speed figures show him to be outside of the top contenders, and his inability to break clean are huge negatives, along with a jockey who until proven that he can navigate a good Derby trip has to be doubted are all very negative factors. I think I can play him to be picking up pieces late in 4th place, and potentially as high as 3rd.
20. Vyjack - Has done little wrong in his career, winning his first 4 races, and then finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial, losing to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. On the bad side, his top beyer is a 96, and his top Beyer at a distance of a mile or more is 93, which is a trend in the wrong direction. My thinking is that he is a horse that absolutely does not want any added ground, and while seeming to be game, will more likely be getting passed rather than passing horses.
Preliminary verdict - There are too many I like better with a similar running style, and there are some that I think that will be coming late that will make me pass on playing this one. You have to take a stand somewhere.
Prediction: I drilled it big time in 2011 calling the exacta in Animal Kingdom and Nehro, hitting the tri, and being a part of a super, all in all killing it that year. Last year, not so much, but I thought last year was an insanely difficult race. This year I think the favorites are just a lot better than the also rans. Note that if the race is on a muddy/off track, I will stick with this, but have a lot less faith in my selections since I suck in wet Churchill conditions.
Predicted order finish:
1st - Orb
2nd - Revolutionary
3rd - Verrazano
4th - Java's War
5th - Itsmyluckyday
1. Black Onyx - Disastrous draw for him. His running style seems to be the worst for this spot possible, as he tends to stalk close to the lead (within 5 lengths of the lead at every call in his career). It will be very difficult to get good position without either using a lot of his horse early, or laying way back and coming with one big run. Add to that his best two races have been on turf and poly, means you are asking him to do an awful lot.
Verdict - I can play him for 4th, and maybe 3rd since I think he will be coming late, but I think any better is asking for the world.
2. Oxbow - Another who did not get the best draw. Off of a bit of a bad trip in his last race, and if you excuse the last race he would be a bit more highly regarded. Ridden by Gary Stevens, and out of Awesome Again, meaning the distance should not be a problem. The bad news is that in his last 3 races he has been beaten by 4 of these, and they are not the most highly regarded of the bunch.
Verdict - I have a feeling I'm going to want him on my tickets. The jockey/trainer combo, combined with the pedigree and the long odds make him one of the more attractive if not the most attractive bomb in the field. Not enough for the win, but maybe as high as 2nd.
3. Revolutionary - Off of 3 straight wins, and out of the red hot barn of Pletcher. It was nice to see him race and win outside of New York too at the Fairgrounds. The bad news is that he was life and death to beat Mylute, a horse who I don't think wants any part of more distance. He does have a 102 BSF in his maiden win at Aqueduct, but it was on an off track, which is something I am always skeptical of. Take that race out of his record, and his highest BSF is 93, which puts him outside of the top players. I like the War Pass connections, and Borel in the Derby can never be a bad thing. He seems to be training awesome at Churchill, and with Churchill being a bit of a unique surface in horses taking to it, you can't ignore it.
Verdict - I like him as one of my key horses, though I think he is a cut below the top tier. It would be a terrible idea to ignore him based on the awesome training tab leading up to the race, and the Borel/Churchill factor. That being said, he is likely to be a bit overbet due to Calvin.
4. Golden Soul - Another who could crash the party coming late, and make tickets pay a ton. He closed well in the La Derby, but was no match for the winner. Good result in past race at Churchill, and Albarado knows Churchill.
Verdict - On my tickets for 4th for sure, and maybe as high as 3rd.
5. Normandy Invasion - By Tapit, who is a great sire, but he's never been known to sire horses for much more distance than a miler. Did finish less than a length off Verrazano, but you have to wonder how wound up they had Verrazano for that race, since they didn't need it to make the field. His best races have been at Aqueduct, which is a track I am always a little skeptical of, as it seems to be one of those "horse for the course" type of places. He seems to be training very well leading up to this.
Verdict - I think I can play him for as high as the win in some tickets, but I'm just not sure the mile and a quarter is right for him. I feel like he is going to be overbet. I do have a small future wager on him at 17-1, but that would not even come close to covering my Derby bets.
6. Mylute - Looked like he had every chance to beat Revolutionary, yet couldn't get past him in the Louisiana Derby. It won't get any easier with added distance and a much tougher field. He closed well in the Louisiana Derby, which was a new dimension for him, but that may have been more due to the swift early pace, rather than discovering a new running style. Top speed figure of 93, combined with distance limitations being out of Midnight Lute don't give me a feeling he is ready to take a step forward with the added distance.
Verdict: I'm not particularly fond of him, but may have to use him since he will be one of the few who are running late.
7. Giant Finish - Best race thus far has been on Poly, and he couldn't beat Black Onyx while being in the front end of a slow pace. There are better horses who will be near the front end than this one. In my book he is a toss.
Verdict: Toss him
8. Goldencents - Needed a big Santa Anita Derby to get in, and responded with a lifetime best performance, and perhaps most importantly a 105 beyer. The SA Derby was a path to win the Derby last year, validating it as a prep race again now that it is on dirt. Rookie jockey, coupled with a horse that has had trouble relaxing in some of his races can be a somewhat scary combination (though the rookie jock had no problem last year). I also question his ability at the distance, being out of Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday. We saw with Shenghai Bobby just how much distance he wanted.
Verdict - The good news is I have a future bet on him at 49-1, the bad news is that I don't think it cashes. I think he's going to be very close to the lead, and unless allowed to go very slowly and freely on that lead, I think he's a player until the far turn, when he will get swallowed up by the closers. My initial inclination is to leave him off the tickets entirely, as reckless as that may seem.
May 2nd update: Upon further review though, that does seem totally reckless to ignore him. He has a tie for the highest last race Beyer, has the highest last race Beyer in the field (an angle that has produced a few surprising longshot winners in Charismatic and War Emblem), and will be forwardly placed in a race without a lot of pace. I still think he will be too aggressive early and not be able to hold for the distance, but ignoring him could be a fatal flaw.
9. Overanalyze - From the Pletcher barn, which means you have to respect him. His Arkansas Derby win was visually impressive, but yielded a very low Beyer of 88. On the down side, a turd like Frac Daddy finished 2nd, which immediately calls into question the quality of the race. Out of Dixie Union, which I believe is the same sire as Union Rags, and those horses are always very well regarded. He showed big time ability in the Remsen Stakes as a 2 year old last year, throwing a 99 beyer. He hasn't broke 90 in either of his races this year yet, but the way he has been training leading up to this has been solid. He is very gutty as well, as it appeared that he would be beaten in the Remsen, after Normandy Invasion passed him, and he came again.
Verdict - I have a nice future bet on him also at 49-1. He is one that I am unsure what I am going to do with right now.
10. Palace Malice - By Curlin, it's a bit early to decide how good he is as a sire. He hasn't won since breaking his maiden at Saratoga in August, and his highest Beyer figure is a 94, with that number trending in the wrong direction as the distance increases. Without a significant improvement he is a cut below the best in this field, and he has been training OK leading up to this race, which just isn't good enough in my book.
Verdict - I think I will use him 4th if at all.
11. Lines of Battle - Until Aiden O'Brien proves to me he can travel here for the Derby and compete, he should continually be bet against. Same goes for horses traveling the Dubai route. But the simple truth is that the outsiders that I have been listing outside of the top contenders are so unappealing to me I have to search for a few who may be able to make some noise. He's out of War Front, which is respectable for getting the distance. He just won the UAE derby in decent fashion, however that field was thought to be somewhat weak. The fact that he has never raced on a dirt is scary enough, and it would make me feel a lot better if he were at Churchill training and growing accustomed to the track (ala Animal Kingdom), but I don't believe that has happened either.
Verdict: Unless I see a phenomenal love the track workout, I'm going to have to pass on him.
12. Itsmyluckyday - He nearly has the highest Beyer in the field, but is he just a horse for Gulfstream? He was looking like a potential Derby favorite, until Orb ran by him like he was tied to a post in the Florida Derby. He was still able to hang on for 2nd in that race. Reports have him training well leading up to the race. Sired by Lawyer Ron, who I don't believe is the most suited to mile and a quarter distance.
Verdict - He will be forwardly placed, and potentially in an ideal position on the far turn, and I wouldn't be surprised if he would make the lead on the turn or at the top of the stretch. I think it would be unwise to ignore him, especially because he may be one of the forgotten horses here, and go off at decent odds.
13. Falling Sky - May be the pace setter, or at least will be pressing the pace. Top beyer of a 92 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, nor does being sired by Lion Heart, who actually had the lead in the stretch of the 2004 Derby, but that was a day when early speed dominated, and the track was sloppy following a monsoon. It would take a similar result to let him hit the board in my opinion.
Verdict - Toss him
14. Verrazano - Looks to be the obvious Derby favorite, and deserving at that. Done nothing wrong so far, winning all of his starts, with 2 speed figures over 100 or better, including a 105, which is likely required to win this. Pletcher is hot as hell with his 3 year olds as well. His 4 wins are at 3 different tracks.
There is no bad with him right now, just questions. His sire, More Than Ready, was 4th in the 2000 Kentucky Derby, and sure didn't seem like he wanted that last furlong. I also can't recall any of his progeny being championship caliber horses at the classic distance. He has been very forwardly placed in all of his races thus far. Typically in the Derby you want to be sitting a little further back due what is usually a hot pace. Can he relax enough to get a good trip?
Verdict - He looks to be a dominant player, and he should be ignored at your own risk.
15. Charming Kitten - He's a Kitten's Joy horse who just threw his career high Beyer on polytrack....hmmm....and now he's coming to the Derby. We already went through this with Dean's Kitten a few years ago, and he ran 14th more highly regarded than this one. That career high Beyer, again on Polytrack, was only an 88. So you have to find reason to think he is going to improve double digit points on a surface that Kitten's Joy progeny have proven to not have an affinity for, to believe he can hit the board. And he also has to do it on a surface that he has never run on before, as well as only having a 3rd in 2 starts on the Poly. He does have Pletcher, but he's probably fairly busy with his top contenders.
Verdict - Toss him
16. Orb - Unbeaten in his last 4 starts. Speed figures are a little bit light, with a high of 97, however perhaps more impressively, he closed 3 times at Gulfstream, most of which is on the outside, which is atypical of that track, where a traditional inside speed bias exists. Sired by Malibu Moon, with AP Indy in his bloodline, the distance shouldn't be a problem. He also is not a typical 1 run deep closer, as he has been within 5 lengths of the front at all calls of both the Florida Derby and his claiming win in January.
On 4/29 he had what many consider to be the most impressive work of anyone in the field, and he has Rosario on the mount, who is winning everything in sight, and riding with extreme confidence right now.
Verdict - He feels like a key horse to me if there ever was one.
17. Will Take Charge - He kinda came out of nowhere to win the Rebel at 28-1, following an awful performance in the Southwest Stakes. That win was at Oaklawn, which is a track that tends to portend future Churchill success, but then again so was the Southwest. He raced at Churchill last year, finishing last in a Grade 2 race out of 13 horses. Looking at that field now and their poor recent results, it has to lead you to believe that race was a fluke. With a top speed figure of 95, in a race that I already believe was a fluke, leads me to believe that this horse is a throwaway to the tickets. As for the pedigree, Unbridled was a Derby winner, but his son, Unbridled's Song was more of a miler (led the Derby top of stretch before fading to 5th in 1996).
Verdict - Toss him
18. Frac Daddy - I'm not a big fan of Scat Daddy horses in general, and this one has been a turd this year, having to gut out a 2nd place on less than 2 weeks rest in a weak Arkansas Derby to make this field. What gives on a bit of pause though is that his 2 best races last year both occurred at Churchill Downs. The question you have to answer for yourself is "Is he a better horse at Churchill, or was he a better horse last year?" Nothing he has done this year says he can even hit the board, with an 81 beyer for a high!!! He did throw a 91 at Churchill last year, so it at least makes me consider him.
Verdict - He should be an easy toss based on current form, but the Churchill results will at least make me consider playing him in 3rd place, but probably not at all above that.
19. Java's War - I was very impressed visually with his Blue Grass, though the speed figure was only 89. His inability to break cleanly in any of his starts is very worrisome. With this year's pace scenario more likely to be tepid than hot, getting a clean break is even more paramount. Having Leparoux in a big race in a Derby field, I would expect a less than clean trip, and probably a belated effort late on the outside. Good post position draw though for him, actually helps Leparoux as being on the outside should help him stay out of trouble.
Verdict - The pace scenario is likely to not be in his favor, his speed figures show him to be outside of the top contenders, and his inability to break clean are huge negatives, along with a jockey who until proven that he can navigate a good Derby trip has to be doubted are all very negative factors. I think I can play him to be picking up pieces late in 4th place, and potentially as high as 3rd.
20. Vyjack - Has done little wrong in his career, winning his first 4 races, and then finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial, losing to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. On the bad side, his top beyer is a 96, and his top Beyer at a distance of a mile or more is 93, which is a trend in the wrong direction. My thinking is that he is a horse that absolutely does not want any added ground, and while seeming to be game, will more likely be getting passed rather than passing horses.
Preliminary verdict - There are too many I like better with a similar running style, and there are some that I think that will be coming late that will make me pass on playing this one. You have to take a stand somewhere.
Prediction: I drilled it big time in 2011 calling the exacta in Animal Kingdom and Nehro, hitting the tri, and being a part of a super, all in all killing it that year. Last year, not so much, but I thought last year was an insanely difficult race. This year I think the favorites are just a lot better than the also rans. Note that if the race is on a muddy/off track, I will stick with this, but have a lot less faith in my selections since I suck in wet Churchill conditions.
Predicted order finish:
1st - Orb
2nd - Revolutionary
3rd - Verrazano
4th - Java's War
5th - Itsmyluckyday
Monday, February 25, 2013
A wild, deep game gets even wilder
With live racing still going on at Northville Downs, the cash games seem to be a little wilder, with the occasional horse player trying their hand at poker, and generally a busier than normal poker room that creates more of an action-y vibe. I got in to the room around 730pm with plans to play for the rest of the night.
The primary players driving action was Abe on my immediate left, a very loose action player, who plays way too many hands and I consider generally to be bad, though he can at least put you to tough decisions. He was playing reasonably deep stacked the whole game ($300-600).
Eric, who I have played with before, could be pretty good, but on this particular night he was drinking and playing way too LAGGY. In general he plays too many hands. He knows me by name, and generally gives me a pretty wide berth. He was on his 4th buy-in before he started winning, and built his stack up to around $900 when the night was coming to a close.
Later on Shaun got into the game, which drove the action to an entirely different level.
I would estimate 1/2 of the pots were straddled, and a lot of the raises even in unstraddled pots were unusually large. That created a table atmosphere where I could raise larger with my premium hands as I was still likely to get value.
The session started out rapid fire, as I picked up 4 pocket pairs in my first 5 hands.
Hand #1: My first hand of the night, I picked up 88 in the BB, in a pot that got limped all the way around. My options were make a big raise to try to thin the field, or check. Since quite a few of the players looked sticky from past experience, I elected to check. The flop came 3 overs and I check folded. It felt weak, but I didn't particularly like the raising option first hand of the night.
Hand #2: Another limped pot, of which there weren't many the rest of the night, I complete with 33 in the SB. Flop comes 6h3h2h. I lead 6 into an $8 pot, and get called by button, who I have never played with before. Turn is Ts, I bet $15, and he calls again. River is Kc, I make a weak bet to $21, and he raises to $42. His line felt so much like a recent 2/5 hand I played at the Bellagio where a guy slow played nut flush into my bets that I was blinded by that and ignored the immediate great odds the pot was offering and folded. He showed T6 for a turned two pair, that I'm sure he felt was best.
Hand #3: Very next hand, my stack at about $155 as I haven't even had a chance to top off, I get KK. Loose bad player raises to 15 in EP, one caller, and I make it 55 on the BTN. Bad player calls and we are HU, and caller goes all-in for less, with me having about 100 behind. Flop is Q9x, he checks, I bet 51, he shoves and I call. Board runs out and my hand is good.
Hand #4: After folding in the CO, I pick up JJ in the HJ. After limps I raise to 21 and get 2 callers. I flop an overpair and they check-fold to my bet.
Hand #5: In a straddled pot there are several limpers, and I make it 35 in the CO with KK. Abe calls on the BTN, along with Eric and one other player. Flop is Ac9c8s, checks to me, I check, and Abe immediately declares all-in for $280 (into a pot of $140). Both fold to me and I'm pretty sure I'm going to fold. I think there's a reasonable chance he has an ace, as well as a reasonable chance he is on JT. He tells me unsolicited "Whatever you want to do, run it once, run it twice...." I debate a little further, thinking more and more that he is drawing, but decide there are better spots to get it in, and fold. He shows JT.
Hand #6: Eric is stuck about 2 buy-ins now, and raises to 15 (playing about 130 or so). He has literally been raising at least 25% of the time, so suffice it to say he doesn't have to be very strong here. After one caller, I 3 bet AcTc to 55. Eric goes all-in after a few seconds, folds to me and I call and hold up vs A9.
Hand #7: A newer player who I could characterize on the tighter side opened UTG to 12, and after 2 callers I called on the BTN with T9s. Flop is 4 ways, and comes Q86, giving me a double gutter. He led $21, which didn't strike me as particularly strong, and got a call from one player. The original raiser had about $200 going into the hand. I debated my options, and didn't feel like his lead felt very strong, so I decided to raise, with the plan of probably calling if he shoved, and shoving most turns if called. The raiser thought for a bit and then called, and the other player folded. Turn was a total blank deuce. He checked and I confidently slid out a large stack of reds. He thought for about 15 seconds and then folded, showing a Q when he did. Eric wanted me to "show the bluff", and I quickly considered it but decided not to pour salt in the wound of the guy who folded.
Things calmed down for a while, as I tightened up and the cards weren't particulary attractive for a while. Was considering racking up and leaving a $400-500 winner, but with so much money in play I decided to hang around. Then things got interesting, a player named Shaun wanted to flip Eric for his stack. Apparently as back story Shaun had been on a massive heater, and had just taken 8K from a PLO game at a bowling alley.
Eric didn't want to do it, so Shaun bought in for $200, after asking to buy more and getting rebuffed. FIrst hand he goes all-in immediately and loses to a player with QQ. Very next hand after rebuying he does the same thing and beats the same players AA with 93. Then the very next hand he beats a different players AA with 98. All of these were all-in pre. Suddenly he has about $600 in front and is still raising to $100 pre every hand. He said his goal was to ruin our game, or take Eric's stack.
Hand #8: I limp AdJd in EP after a limper, and Shaun raises to $40 from the BB. Limper folds and I call. He says "Alright, we're gonna play some poker." I respond with a question "Are we??" Flop is AQT, he checks, and I check behind. Turn is a 5, he checks again, I bet $50 and he folds.
Hand #9: Shaun had gambled his stack away again, and was back down to $200. This hand brought up an interesting ethical spot, that I am curious how others would handle. Straddled pot by Eric (not sure why anyone would straddle or raise now with Shaun driving action on literally 100% of hands). Tommy calls (young player I have played with and beaten up on several times, very fun to have in the game though, and he originally set the unofficial straddle record when he did it for $160 sometime last year), and then I limp the straddle with AA. A few seconds before that, he asks if we mind if he buys in for another $200. Nobody objects and I say ok (following my limp). Then he raises to 100 before the chips are delivered to him. I ask him "Is that playing this hand?", and he says "Yes.". Tommy calls (leaving himself 80 or so more behind. Then I shove, and both players call. Tommy had JTs, and I have no idea what Shaun had. The board paired with 9's, but nothing else of significance, and my hand was good for a pot of nearly $1K.
I don't feel like I did anything wrong here by allowing it, as he had originally asked before the hand started, but still felt a bit conflicted by it. I know all he wanted to do was gamble, and he had no ill will about the hand in any way.
After that hand, the charity had sold out, so I played a few more hands and left a 4 figure winner for the session. Good times, and a nice little boost before the MSPT which I am planning on playing in at Firekeepers.
The primary players driving action was Abe on my immediate left, a very loose action player, who plays way too many hands and I consider generally to be bad, though he can at least put you to tough decisions. He was playing reasonably deep stacked the whole game ($300-600).
Eric, who I have played with before, could be pretty good, but on this particular night he was drinking and playing way too LAGGY. In general he plays too many hands. He knows me by name, and generally gives me a pretty wide berth. He was on his 4th buy-in before he started winning, and built his stack up to around $900 when the night was coming to a close.
Later on Shaun got into the game, which drove the action to an entirely different level.
I would estimate 1/2 of the pots were straddled, and a lot of the raises even in unstraddled pots were unusually large. That created a table atmosphere where I could raise larger with my premium hands as I was still likely to get value.
The session started out rapid fire, as I picked up 4 pocket pairs in my first 5 hands.
Hand #1: My first hand of the night, I picked up 88 in the BB, in a pot that got limped all the way around. My options were make a big raise to try to thin the field, or check. Since quite a few of the players looked sticky from past experience, I elected to check. The flop came 3 overs and I check folded. It felt weak, but I didn't particularly like the raising option first hand of the night.
Hand #2: Another limped pot, of which there weren't many the rest of the night, I complete with 33 in the SB. Flop comes 6h3h2h. I lead 6 into an $8 pot, and get called by button, who I have never played with before. Turn is Ts, I bet $15, and he calls again. River is Kc, I make a weak bet to $21, and he raises to $42. His line felt so much like a recent 2/5 hand I played at the Bellagio where a guy slow played nut flush into my bets that I was blinded by that and ignored the immediate great odds the pot was offering and folded. He showed T6 for a turned two pair, that I'm sure he felt was best.
Hand #3: Very next hand, my stack at about $155 as I haven't even had a chance to top off, I get KK. Loose bad player raises to 15 in EP, one caller, and I make it 55 on the BTN. Bad player calls and we are HU, and caller goes all-in for less, with me having about 100 behind. Flop is Q9x, he checks, I bet 51, he shoves and I call. Board runs out and my hand is good.
Hand #4: After folding in the CO, I pick up JJ in the HJ. After limps I raise to 21 and get 2 callers. I flop an overpair and they check-fold to my bet.
Hand #5: In a straddled pot there are several limpers, and I make it 35 in the CO with KK. Abe calls on the BTN, along with Eric and one other player. Flop is Ac9c8s, checks to me, I check, and Abe immediately declares all-in for $280 (into a pot of $140). Both fold to me and I'm pretty sure I'm going to fold. I think there's a reasonable chance he has an ace, as well as a reasonable chance he is on JT. He tells me unsolicited "Whatever you want to do, run it once, run it twice...." I debate a little further, thinking more and more that he is drawing, but decide there are better spots to get it in, and fold. He shows JT.
Hand #6: Eric is stuck about 2 buy-ins now, and raises to 15 (playing about 130 or so). He has literally been raising at least 25% of the time, so suffice it to say he doesn't have to be very strong here. After one caller, I 3 bet AcTc to 55. Eric goes all-in after a few seconds, folds to me and I call and hold up vs A9.
Hand #7: A newer player who I could characterize on the tighter side opened UTG to 12, and after 2 callers I called on the BTN with T9s. Flop is 4 ways, and comes Q86, giving me a double gutter. He led $21, which didn't strike me as particularly strong, and got a call from one player. The original raiser had about $200 going into the hand. I debated my options, and didn't feel like his lead felt very strong, so I decided to raise, with the plan of probably calling if he shoved, and shoving most turns if called. The raiser thought for a bit and then called, and the other player folded. Turn was a total blank deuce. He checked and I confidently slid out a large stack of reds. He thought for about 15 seconds and then folded, showing a Q when he did. Eric wanted me to "show the bluff", and I quickly considered it but decided not to pour salt in the wound of the guy who folded.
Things calmed down for a while, as I tightened up and the cards weren't particulary attractive for a while. Was considering racking up and leaving a $400-500 winner, but with so much money in play I decided to hang around. Then things got interesting, a player named Shaun wanted to flip Eric for his stack. Apparently as back story Shaun had been on a massive heater, and had just taken 8K from a PLO game at a bowling alley.
Eric didn't want to do it, so Shaun bought in for $200, after asking to buy more and getting rebuffed. FIrst hand he goes all-in immediately and loses to a player with QQ. Very next hand after rebuying he does the same thing and beats the same players AA with 93. Then the very next hand he beats a different players AA with 98. All of these were all-in pre. Suddenly he has about $600 in front and is still raising to $100 pre every hand. He said his goal was to ruin our game, or take Eric's stack.
Hand #8: I limp AdJd in EP after a limper, and Shaun raises to $40 from the BB. Limper folds and I call. He says "Alright, we're gonna play some poker." I respond with a question "Are we??" Flop is AQT, he checks, and I check behind. Turn is a 5, he checks again, I bet $50 and he folds.
Hand #9: Shaun had gambled his stack away again, and was back down to $200. This hand brought up an interesting ethical spot, that I am curious how others would handle. Straddled pot by Eric (not sure why anyone would straddle or raise now with Shaun driving action on literally 100% of hands). Tommy calls (young player I have played with and beaten up on several times, very fun to have in the game though, and he originally set the unofficial straddle record when he did it for $160 sometime last year), and then I limp the straddle with AA. A few seconds before that, he asks if we mind if he buys in for another $200. Nobody objects and I say ok (following my limp). Then he raises to 100 before the chips are delivered to him. I ask him "Is that playing this hand?", and he says "Yes.". Tommy calls (leaving himself 80 or so more behind. Then I shove, and both players call. Tommy had JTs, and I have no idea what Shaun had. The board paired with 9's, but nothing else of significance, and my hand was good for a pot of nearly $1K.
I don't feel like I did anything wrong here by allowing it, as he had originally asked before the hand started, but still felt a bit conflicted by it. I know all he wanted to do was gamble, and he had no ill will about the hand in any way.
After that hand, the charity had sold out, so I played a few more hands and left a 4 figure winner for the session. Good times, and a nice little boost before the MSPT which I am planning on playing in at Firekeepers.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
A great session, for more than one reason
I arrived at Northville Downs for what was likely to be a 3-4 hour session before meeting the wife and her family for dinner nearby. I got there right at noon, and had to wait for about 20 minutes for the first game to start. We started with 5 players, a then the 6th player arrived shortly thereafter. That group composed the people involved in all of my spots/hands of the session.
I feel it was the best that I played in a while. Maybe it was because my decisions weren't the most difficult, but you will see in one of the hands below I avoided getting stacked in a spot where I probably should.
The key players were as follows:
AYK: Aggro young kid, you know the type, plays there a decent amount, thinks he's the best in the room. The reality is that he could be decent, but because he thinks he's so good, he plays WAY too many hands.
Al: Pseudonym for this guy, he's basically a major fish who I love having in my game. He can really frustrate players with the hands that he makes, and the lines that he takes. But I've noticed in playing with him that he has a critical flaw, that is amazingly transparent to me yet somehow nobody else. He tends to overbet, or bet very large with a nut type hand, and tends to make small bets, and even extreme underbets when he doesn't have a strong hand.
Setting the tone:
The very first hand, AYK is on the button and straddles to 5, the blinds fold, and I raise 22 UTG/HJ to 20, as expected the button calls and we are HU to the flop. The flop comes with 3 unconnecting overcards, I believe it was Q high, and I cbet 30 and he folds.
I felt that it was important early on to establish an aggressive image, and not allow the AYK to take control of the table.
First big spot
Playing about 225 deep, I open QQ after a few limpers to 15. Al re-raises on the button to 50. He bought in for 100, and just won a fairly big hand to get his stack above mine. This guy is super loose, and very aggressive with pre-flop raises, but not particularly aggressive with 3 bets, especially larger 3 bets. I considered all of my options. Certainly shoving QQ couldn't be that bad against a fish like this. I also considered folding, as the size of his 3 bet gave me some pause. In the end I thought I could call, and gauge his post flop action to determine if I had run into AA or KK. I called, and the flop came KK5. I check, and he strongly bet 100. I thought for a bit and stared at him and he told me: "I don't have a king." As an aside, at that point a player to my left asked what the rule was on talking during the hand, knowing full well that the rule there is no talking allowed. I appreciated that the dealer said something to the effect of "There's some things I don't hear.", as I don't particularly like the rule, especially when I am getting information volunteered to me. The dealer basically told him, probably wrongly per the rules of the cardroom, to basically mind his own business when he wasn't involved in the hand.
I asked him if he would show and he said "Sure, why not?", and I mucked face up, he proceeded to show me AA, and I immediately felt even more strongly than I already had about the hand.
Ace Magnets
A bit later I raise KK after a few limpers to 15, and get 3 callers, all OOP to me. Flop comes As9s4s. Checked to me, I'm pretty sure I had the Ks, and I bet 25, first limper shoves for 39 total, rest fold. I make sure I have the Ks and call. He has AJ no spades. Board blanks out and I lose. At this point I feel pretty good about the fact that I've lost with QQ and KK, and am still only down about $25, despite not winning any showdowns.
Another one with Al
Al opens the pot first or second to act to 15, SB calls, and I elect to just call in the BB with JJ. Flop comes king high, we check to him, and he bets 15, SB folds and I call. Turn is a blank, I check, he again bets 15 (bet sizing!!!) and I call. River is a K, I check, he checks and shows TT. Maybe I should have gotten more $ on this hand, but it helped further reinforce my bet size read.
I get rolling
UTG (young kid short stack) opens to 15, Al calls, and I call with 99 in the BB. This may not be the best call, but I am not purely setmining. There are plenty of boards and actions where I am willing to continue. Fortunately I don't have to worry about that as the flop is Q95. I check, UTG shoves for 60, Al quickly calls. I then shove for about 170. Al folds JT face up. I turn my cards over and he says he is probably drawing dead. I never saw his cards as I rake a nice pot.
Bluff inducement
This hand I got creative as the hand played out. For background, I saw Al raise a smallish river bet to 50ish on a stone bluff, and get called. For this hand, I raised A6o to 12 in MP (which I hated immediately after doing it, knowing that Al was likely to call me in position). We ended up HU to the flop. Flop was QJ8. I checked and he quickly checked. I'm 100% certain he would bet here with anything that remotely connected to this board. Basically any pair, any gutshot, etc.... Turn was another Q, making board QJ8Q. I checked, he bet 15, and I thought about it and called, thinking I was good. River was an A, now I lead out 15, in hopes of inducing a raise. He doesn't disappoint, and raises to 51. I call knowing that if he does have an ace, that we are chopping the pot since there is no way he AK here. He mucks without showing, and I do the same after being pushed the pot.
Biggest hand
I open UTG to 12 with AA. I get called by Al, and another player, and then AYK 3 bets to 50 with another 200 behind. I 4 bet to 125, 2 players fold, and the AYK thinks for a while and calls. I am putting him pretty strongly on QQ or JJ here, with a very outside shot at AK. Flop comes Ax9d8d. AYK checks, and I think for a while, and decide to give him some rope here, with only a 1/2 PSB left. Based on the action, a free card can't hurt me, and may give him a chance to push me off of the KK that I am trying to rep. The turn is the Ad, giving me quads. He checks his cards, presumably to see if he has a diamond, and then shoves. Obviously I call and he shows JJ. Immediately after this, which means he is down about 2-3 buy-ins, he switches tables, presumably to find greener pastures.
The rest:
Other than that, I played pretty solidly, continuing to pick up occasional pots with Cbets. During that same time Al was on fire, picking up pots with a full range of hands. The most egregious, though it was a small pot, was when he called a flop bet on a board of Td8x4d, with 7d3x, and went runner runner to make a winning flush. He also called a flop bet with a gutterball, and then ran runner runner 2 pair to scoop another pot. About 3.5 hours into the session, I got the call to leave, and Al was racking up as well, along with another player, essentially killing the game.
The best part of it all was that I was able to make over 2 buy-ins, while at the same time Al was able to run his 100 into over 1K, thus ensuring that money makes it back into the poker community.
I feel it was the best that I played in a while. Maybe it was because my decisions weren't the most difficult, but you will see in one of the hands below I avoided getting stacked in a spot where I probably should.
The key players were as follows:
AYK: Aggro young kid, you know the type, plays there a decent amount, thinks he's the best in the room. The reality is that he could be decent, but because he thinks he's so good, he plays WAY too many hands.
Al: Pseudonym for this guy, he's basically a major fish who I love having in my game. He can really frustrate players with the hands that he makes, and the lines that he takes. But I've noticed in playing with him that he has a critical flaw, that is amazingly transparent to me yet somehow nobody else. He tends to overbet, or bet very large with a nut type hand, and tends to make small bets, and even extreme underbets when he doesn't have a strong hand.
Setting the tone:
The very first hand, AYK is on the button and straddles to 5, the blinds fold, and I raise 22 UTG/HJ to 20, as expected the button calls and we are HU to the flop. The flop comes with 3 unconnecting overcards, I believe it was Q high, and I cbet 30 and he folds.
I felt that it was important early on to establish an aggressive image, and not allow the AYK to take control of the table.
First big spot
Playing about 225 deep, I open QQ after a few limpers to 15. Al re-raises on the button to 50. He bought in for 100, and just won a fairly big hand to get his stack above mine. This guy is super loose, and very aggressive with pre-flop raises, but not particularly aggressive with 3 bets, especially larger 3 bets. I considered all of my options. Certainly shoving QQ couldn't be that bad against a fish like this. I also considered folding, as the size of his 3 bet gave me some pause. In the end I thought I could call, and gauge his post flop action to determine if I had run into AA or KK. I called, and the flop came KK5. I check, and he strongly bet 100. I thought for a bit and stared at him and he told me: "I don't have a king." As an aside, at that point a player to my left asked what the rule was on talking during the hand, knowing full well that the rule there is no talking allowed. I appreciated that the dealer said something to the effect of "There's some things I don't hear.", as I don't particularly like the rule, especially when I am getting information volunteered to me. The dealer basically told him, probably wrongly per the rules of the cardroom, to basically mind his own business when he wasn't involved in the hand.
I asked him if he would show and he said "Sure, why not?", and I mucked face up, he proceeded to show me AA, and I immediately felt even more strongly than I already had about the hand.
Ace Magnets
A bit later I raise KK after a few limpers to 15, and get 3 callers, all OOP to me. Flop comes As9s4s. Checked to me, I'm pretty sure I had the Ks, and I bet 25, first limper shoves for 39 total, rest fold. I make sure I have the Ks and call. He has AJ no spades. Board blanks out and I lose. At this point I feel pretty good about the fact that I've lost with QQ and KK, and am still only down about $25, despite not winning any showdowns.
Another one with Al
Al opens the pot first or second to act to 15, SB calls, and I elect to just call in the BB with JJ. Flop comes king high, we check to him, and he bets 15, SB folds and I call. Turn is a blank, I check, he again bets 15 (bet sizing!!!) and I call. River is a K, I check, he checks and shows TT. Maybe I should have gotten more $ on this hand, but it helped further reinforce my bet size read.
I get rolling
UTG (young kid short stack) opens to 15, Al calls, and I call with 99 in the BB. This may not be the best call, but I am not purely setmining. There are plenty of boards and actions where I am willing to continue. Fortunately I don't have to worry about that as the flop is Q95. I check, UTG shoves for 60, Al quickly calls. I then shove for about 170. Al folds JT face up. I turn my cards over and he says he is probably drawing dead. I never saw his cards as I rake a nice pot.
Bluff inducement
This hand I got creative as the hand played out. For background, I saw Al raise a smallish river bet to 50ish on a stone bluff, and get called. For this hand, I raised A6o to 12 in MP (which I hated immediately after doing it, knowing that Al was likely to call me in position). We ended up HU to the flop. Flop was QJ8. I checked and he quickly checked. I'm 100% certain he would bet here with anything that remotely connected to this board. Basically any pair, any gutshot, etc.... Turn was another Q, making board QJ8Q. I checked, he bet 15, and I thought about it and called, thinking I was good. River was an A, now I lead out 15, in hopes of inducing a raise. He doesn't disappoint, and raises to 51. I call knowing that if he does have an ace, that we are chopping the pot since there is no way he AK here. He mucks without showing, and I do the same after being pushed the pot.
Biggest hand
I open UTG to 12 with AA. I get called by Al, and another player, and then AYK 3 bets to 50 with another 200 behind. I 4 bet to 125, 2 players fold, and the AYK thinks for a while and calls. I am putting him pretty strongly on QQ or JJ here, with a very outside shot at AK. Flop comes Ax9d8d. AYK checks, and I think for a while, and decide to give him some rope here, with only a 1/2 PSB left. Based on the action, a free card can't hurt me, and may give him a chance to push me off of the KK that I am trying to rep. The turn is the Ad, giving me quads. He checks his cards, presumably to see if he has a diamond, and then shoves. Obviously I call and he shows JJ. Immediately after this, which means he is down about 2-3 buy-ins, he switches tables, presumably to find greener pastures.
The rest:
Other than that, I played pretty solidly, continuing to pick up occasional pots with Cbets. During that same time Al was on fire, picking up pots with a full range of hands. The most egregious, though it was a small pot, was when he called a flop bet on a board of Td8x4d, with 7d3x, and went runner runner to make a winning flush. He also called a flop bet with a gutterball, and then ran runner runner 2 pair to scoop another pot. About 3.5 hours into the session, I got the call to leave, and Al was racking up as well, along with another player, essentially killing the game.
The best part of it all was that I was able to make over 2 buy-ins, while at the same time Al was able to run his 100 into over 1K, thus ensuring that money makes it back into the poker community.
Thursday, January 03, 2013
2012 Poker Year in Review
As we near the end of 2012, I thought it was a good time to
take stock of my poker play, look for trends, and develop some goals for next
year. As an aside, almost all of the calculations in here are automated, with very little setup required. If anyone would like a template of my record keeping spreadsheet, I will be happy to provide, just drop your e-mail in the comments.
2012 began much like 2011 with a downswing. This one was a quick 1K downswing while out
in Vegas for a work convention. I
played 3 sessions of 2/5, losing about 1100.
Most of that trip report can be read about here and here. I undid the damage in February, and got
things into the black for good for the year in April. May and June were my best months of the year,
and after a loss in July, my play significantly dipped due to Marissa being
born, as I have 9 sessions totaling 42 hours since. Here are the graphs of my profit vs hours,
and profit vs date.
Also, below you can see the graph of hours played by month.
I've found when I analyze my play, it helps to parse my
results by a lot of different categories.
Different limits:
The first thing to look at is my results at different
limits. For the year I played mostly
1/2, and a smattering of 1/3 and 2/5.
Below are the results.
1/2: $25/hr (down from $30/hr in 2011 in a similar # of
hours)
1/3: Not even worth
looking at as I only have 17 hours in 2 years
2/5: -$212/hr (in 11
hours of play - down from $32/hr in 2011 in 20 hours)
Obviously the 2/5 results are horrible, though the sample size
is laughably small. Looking back at the
results, in session #1 I ran QQ into KK in a big pot at the Venetian in a
marginal spot, where I believe I probably could have folded to the 3 bet. It could be considered a minor cooler. My 2nd and 3rd session was also at the
Venetian where I dropped close to a buy-in, and my only real notes say that I
played weak tight.
I played again at 2/5 at Motor City where I ran something
awful, losing 2 buy-ins. That session is chronicled here. The 1st hand of
significance involved me getting it in with top two pair on a JT5 board, only
to run into a set of 5's. The 2nd had of
significance involved me getting it in with AK v a short stacks AQ, and a
frustrated player's larger stack of JT, and I managed to lose both the main pot
and the side pot.
I didn't play 2/5 again until the Michigan Poker Monster March Madness party, where I started out hot, but ended up
dropping a little over $100, mostly due to losing a big pot where I got all-in
on the flop against an open ended straight draw where I held top set and lost
on the river.
After that session, I just never really got a chance to play
2/5 again, only going downtown twice since March, and both times sitting at
1/2.
While the overall results are horrible, I think that these
results were mostly just the bad side of variance. Could I have played better in a few
spots? Maybe, but I think there was no
way I was going to come close to breaking even with the luck that I had
there.
Conclusions?
Obviously I can kill 1/2, and I believe I can beat 2/5 pretty badly as
well, but I haven't given myself enough of a shot to do it.
Different rooms:
My play has been primarily spent at Northville Downs, with
the rest of the hours being in a smattering of other rooms.
Northville Downs (48.6% of my play): $31/hr (up from $28/hr
in 2011, in a similar # of hours)
Docs (20.4% of my play):
$34/hr (down from $58/hr in 2011, in a similar # of hours)
Motor City (7.5% of my play): -$85/hr (down from $92/hr in 2011, the
aforementioned 2/5 results badly skew this one)
The rest of the rooms each represent less than 5% of my play
for the year, and I got time in 12 different rooms this year (last year I
played in 13 different rooms).
Obviously I need to play more at Docs as I am just killing
the players there. The problem is that
the player base is smaller, and you tend to have to wait longer than I would
like when I go there. The plus side of
the room is the beer selection, free food that they routinely put out,
attractive servers, and of course a high win rate.
Session length:
This one tends to be mis-leading, as the longer sessions are
usually when I have fallen behind and am trying to make a comeback, hence the
lower win rate, but since my data can be parsed that way, here it is. But I am happy to say that these results for
this year are much more consistent and flat, which leads me to believe I chased
a lot less this year. This is regardless
of limit, game, etc...
Less than 2 hours (24.6% of sessions): $26/hr
2-4 hrs (37.7%):
$11/hr
4-6 hours (24.6%):
$13/hr
6-8 hours (8.2%):
$28/hr
8+ hours (6.6%):
$11/hr
Day of the week:
I have been charting this for a while, and the results for
2012 aren't really meaningful as the sample size is too small. My lifetime records though indicate my most
profitable days of the week as Thursday, then Sunday, then Monday, then
Wednesday. It's interesting to note that
on Friday and Saturday, which one would think would be a players best days due
to the increased recreational element, that I am barely better than break
even. I don't really have any
conclusions from this, but find it interesting.
2013 Goals:
I believe I created one of these in draft form a year or two
ago, but never sent it out. Here's a few
loose goals. None of them are going to
be associated with a win rate. I believe
I am a winning player, and if I put in the hours and play my game, while being
smart and disciplined, the win rate will take care of itself.
Half of the goals will be evaluated subjectively, but unfortunately that is the nature of the beast when dealing with some of the goals that I put together.
Half of the goals will be evaluated subjectively, but unfortunately that is the nature of the beast when dealing with some of the goals that I put together.
Goal #1: Play 200
hours in 2013.: I need to average 17
hours per month, which is hopefully doable, as the baby gets older. The winter should allow me to get a head
start as I don't have any responsibilities such as softball or coaching Abby's
teams taking up my time, and I also don't have golf competing for my free time
for the first few months of the year.
Goal #2: Play 40
hours of 2/5 or higher in 2013. This
should be a doable, as long as I am smart about bankroll, don't run awful, and
make sure to visit rooms that have this limit available.
Goal #3: Continue to find profitable spots to 3 bet. I wrote an article on it in 2+2 magazine, which was generally well received. Players tend to hate it, and don't properly combat it, and just generally allow themselves to be walked all over.
Goal #4: Continue to
find ways to exploit my position. This
is kind of related to #3, in that I want to generally 3 bet in position. But I believe my goal should be to make the
player or 2 directly to my right very uncomfortable. If I am not doing that, I am not doing my job
well enough.
Goal #5: Once I get
a big stack, aggressively target other big stacks. This is one where I feel I could definitely
improve. I try to be keenly aware of all
stack sizes at the table, and am especially aware of my potential exposure
every time I play a hand. What I need to
do though is to exploit players who are also aware of their exposure,
especially ones who are fearful of playing deep.
Goal #6: I had one article published in 2012 (Low Stakes Live Light 3 Betting) which was published by 2+2 internet magazine, and that I was compensated for. The article remains on the site for 6 months, and is no longer available there. I'm going to start small this year and set a modest goal of 2 articles for 2013.
Goal #6: I had one article published in 2012 (Low Stakes Live Light 3 Betting) which was published by 2+2 internet magazine, and that I was compensated for. The article remains on the site for 6 months, and is no longer available there. I'm going to start small this year and set a modest goal of 2 articles for 2013.
Hopefully in 12 months time I will be able to re-examine
this post to see how I did about attaining my goals.
Monday, December 10, 2012
College Bowl picks - Volume 1
Trying to focus more strongly on the Bowl games this year, in hopes of putting together a solid record.
New Mexico Bowl - Let's start this off by stating the obvious. Both teams have absolutely brutal defenses, averaging 190 and 213 yards allowed on the ground. Both teams also have dominant rushing attacks, with both averaging well north of 200 yards per game. With the dominant offenses and piss-poor defenses, the over seems obvious, right? You would be wrong, I am going to go the opposite direction. Both teams running the crap out of the ball means churning out a lot of 1st downs, and allowing the clock to continue to wind. The total is huge, 75 as of now after opening at 76. That requires 11 TD's to beat you. Nevada has gone over in 6 of 11 games this year, and Arizona has gone over in 8 of 11 games this year. But Nevada has only seen a high total of 70, and Arizona only has 1 game with a total higher than we see for this game. Add in the fact that Nevada will have 2 weeks off before playing, and Arizona 3 weeks off, and you could expect a bit of a slow start. Those things together just make it too difficult to project this game to easily reach the 70's. It may very well reach the 60's, but 38-31 will be fine for the under backers. Play: UNDER 76 3*
Potato Bowl - I'm kind of a fan of both of these teams. Toledo has a close loss to Arizona (though they were admittedly outplayed), and has a win over a decent Cincy team, and a close loss to class of MAC Northern Illinois. Utah State beat Utah, who wasn't very good, almost beat Wisconsin while they were reeling. Lost to BYU in a pathetic 6-3 game, and beat La Tech, a team that plays zero defense. Both teams played 1 point games last year in the bowls, with Toledo beating Air Force, and Utah losing to Ohio (also of the MAC). I personally think the MAC plays some good football, and this Toledo team is led by solid QB play. Toledo tends to play to the level of their opponents, never really blowing anyone out, but also being within a TD in all of their losses. I think Toledo is good enough to keep this close, and is a potential threat to win. Play: Toledo +10
Summary:
12/15: 3* Arizona/Nevada UNDER 76
12/15: 4* Toledo +10
New Mexico Bowl - Let's start this off by stating the obvious. Both teams have absolutely brutal defenses, averaging 190 and 213 yards allowed on the ground. Both teams also have dominant rushing attacks, with both averaging well north of 200 yards per game. With the dominant offenses and piss-poor defenses, the over seems obvious, right? You would be wrong, I am going to go the opposite direction. Both teams running the crap out of the ball means churning out a lot of 1st downs, and allowing the clock to continue to wind. The total is huge, 75 as of now after opening at 76. That requires 11 TD's to beat you. Nevada has gone over in 6 of 11 games this year, and Arizona has gone over in 8 of 11 games this year. But Nevada has only seen a high total of 70, and Arizona only has 1 game with a total higher than we see for this game. Add in the fact that Nevada will have 2 weeks off before playing, and Arizona 3 weeks off, and you could expect a bit of a slow start. Those things together just make it too difficult to project this game to easily reach the 70's. It may very well reach the 60's, but 38-31 will be fine for the under backers. Play: UNDER 76 3*
Potato Bowl - I'm kind of a fan of both of these teams. Toledo has a close loss to Arizona (though they were admittedly outplayed), and has a win over a decent Cincy team, and a close loss to class of MAC Northern Illinois. Utah State beat Utah, who wasn't very good, almost beat Wisconsin while they were reeling. Lost to BYU in a pathetic 6-3 game, and beat La Tech, a team that plays zero defense. Both teams played 1 point games last year in the bowls, with Toledo beating Air Force, and Utah losing to Ohio (also of the MAC). I personally think the MAC plays some good football, and this Toledo team is led by solid QB play. Toledo tends to play to the level of their opponents, never really blowing anyone out, but also being within a TD in all of their losses. I think Toledo is good enough to keep this close, and is a potential threat to win. Play: Toledo +10
Summary:
12/15: 3* Arizona/Nevada UNDER 76
12/15: 4* Toledo +10
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
A poker post?? Wow!
I was able to get away from the home life for my 4th short session since Marissa's birth. It was a busy Veteran's Day Monday at Northville Downs, and to show I don't discriminate, I thought a good way to spend it would be to try to extract money from both Vets and non-Vets alike.
My table was fairly active, a lot of straddling, a lot of pre-flop raising, and even some 3 betting. So not ideal, but a lot of the 3 betting was spewy, and there was way too much calling of 3 bets. Therefore, still beatable, and potentially very profitable, but higher variance at the same time. I started out winning a few smaller pots, and opened up a bit, but I folded to 3 bets on back to back hands, in both cases I had KJ, and I was back around even, and my image had started to erode. I began playing a little too passive for a few orbits, and potentially even a bit timid, and bled through about $75-80.
Hand #1: I topped off my stack, and UTG picked up AKo. I raised to 10, and got called by a good sometimes overly aggressive player two to my left, who had been making my life a little difficult (Over aggro for short), and eventually was called by 5 other players as well, including both blinds, making the pot $70. Flop was AQ7r. Checks to me, and I bet 35, pretty sure I was going to commit unless there was a raise and a call after me. The CO (older guy who covered) called, the button and SB also called (both with only about 50 more behind. The turn was a 9, and now the SB shoved for 50, I reshoved for about 150, CO folded, and button called. Somehow both players had KT, and I dodged the jack to pick up a nice pot, and I was suddenly ahead about $100.
Hand #2: A few hands later, 8 handed, I raised a weak limper on my right with 6c5c to $12. I was called in 3 spots, including the limper and one of the blinds. Flop came Kx9c7c, giving me a gutshot, flush draw, and even a gutshot straight flush draw. Checked to me, and with still a player to act behind me, I felt I had to c-bet, so I bet $30, and got called by the short stack SB, and then the weak limper raised to $130, leaving himself about $80-90 behind. I was clearly left with no fold equity, so despite hating it, I felt I had to fold as I think a hand like the nut flush draw is in his range of hands to make this move. The SB went all-in, and I got to see the hands. The SB had KQ, and the weak limper had 97 for bottom two pair. To add a bit of insult to injury the river was the 8c for a straight flush for me. Still the right play regardless of the result.
Hand #3: I open 7d6d 7 handed, and am again called by over aggro guy (I realized I should be tightening my raising range early on since I was getting called often and found myself OOP to him, and believe me, I did, it just seems like I was raising all of my suited connectors), as well as called by one of the blinds. Flop was Th6s2c, checks to me, and I decided to check to let aggro guy bet, figuring he would fire with almost 100% of his range here. Betting is probably better here, but I figured I would let him take the initiative, as my plan was call down mode. Turn was a 3s, I checked, he bet 40, and I elected to call, figuring him still for absolutely nothing. River was another 6 giving me trips, I checked, and he bet 80 - leaving himself about 80 more behind. I hemmed and hawed about raising him, but in the end just decided to call, as my read was that he was bluffing, and I didn't feel there was any value in a raise, as it would just be called by a hand that had me beat. I was shocked when he rolled over As6s and I lost the pot. His turn bet was what solidified the fact to me that he had nothing, as despite being over-aggro, he tended to check the turn when he had marginal showdown value. I guess picking up the flush draw emboldened him to bet (as it would have for me as well).
I should explain my thought process further, as I think it's where I went wrong in the hand, though in this case it wouldn't have mattered had I bet flop and bet turn. This guy also seemed to float an awful lot in position, and I felt that I could be put into a really tough spot every street by betting out and double barreling....though in the end that's exactly where I ended up. If I bet the flop and he calls, his hand still isn't very well defined given his wide range. By check calling, I was keeping his range at its widest.
Oh well, obviously I am a little confused at the spot I put myself into....folding pre-flop may be best when dealing with an opponent like this, or changing seats at the table.
Hand #4: Over aggro guy has started bleeding chips to other players, and is definitely not playing sharp, borderline tilty, and he straddled on the button to 7. Two very loose semi-aggro players call in the blinds, and it's folded to me in the CO with KQo. I feel like this one is very close, and could make a case for all of my 3 options. In the end I think Raising > Fold > Call, and I elected the high variance route and raised to 35. The button called, along with only one of the blinds (all stacks are roughly equal around $200ish). With over $100 in the pot, and only about $170 in my stack, I decided I had no choice but to commit if I hit top pair, unless something extraordinary happened like a player raising and showing me his cards after doing so in order to get me to fold. As far as C-betting, I wasn't sure what my plan would be, though I was thinking about cutting out a half pot bet at most boards if checked to me. The flop was QJx, the blind checked, I bet 50, over aggro guy shoved, blind folded and I called. It turned out I had him covered by $1. He had KT for an open ended draw. We ran it once (I never offered twice and it wasn't discussed), and my hand held up for a big pot.
Hand #5: Button straddles for 5, and the table dynamic has slightly changed, a little less aggressive. The straddler has not raised his straddle yet. A few players limp, I elect to limp the CO with Js9s. Button checks. Flop is KT8sxx. Checks to button, he bets 10, one player calls, and I call, but I hesitated, and intentionally looked kind of weak, trying to act like I had minor showdown value. Turn 3s, checks to button again, and he bets 22 with about 180 behind, other player folds and I was really close to raising, but felt that the weakness I showed earlier in the hand would be seen through and I would get looked up light, so elected to call. River was 6s giving me the flush. Since players instinctively check when a flush hits, even a backdoor one, I decided to try to bet large and look bluffy, and bet 65. He thought for about 30 seconds and called with what he said was a rivered two pair. In any case I think leading large got me the most money on the river, as he wasn't likely to call a check-raise in my opinion.
In the end I won a bit less than a buy-in, for a very swingy but profitable 4 hour session. A few parts of my game seem a bit rusty, but I also felt like I was seeing things for the most part very clearly. I may not have been mixing it up as much as I could have and fighting for every pot, but at 1/2 that just isn't necessary for the most part.
My table was fairly active, a lot of straddling, a lot of pre-flop raising, and even some 3 betting. So not ideal, but a lot of the 3 betting was spewy, and there was way too much calling of 3 bets. Therefore, still beatable, and potentially very profitable, but higher variance at the same time. I started out winning a few smaller pots, and opened up a bit, but I folded to 3 bets on back to back hands, in both cases I had KJ, and I was back around even, and my image had started to erode. I began playing a little too passive for a few orbits, and potentially even a bit timid, and bled through about $75-80.
Hand #1: I topped off my stack, and UTG picked up AKo. I raised to 10, and got called by a good sometimes overly aggressive player two to my left, who had been making my life a little difficult (Over aggro for short), and eventually was called by 5 other players as well, including both blinds, making the pot $70. Flop was AQ7r. Checks to me, and I bet 35, pretty sure I was going to commit unless there was a raise and a call after me. The CO (older guy who covered) called, the button and SB also called (both with only about 50 more behind. The turn was a 9, and now the SB shoved for 50, I reshoved for about 150, CO folded, and button called. Somehow both players had KT, and I dodged the jack to pick up a nice pot, and I was suddenly ahead about $100.
Hand #2: A few hands later, 8 handed, I raised a weak limper on my right with 6c5c to $12. I was called in 3 spots, including the limper and one of the blinds. Flop came Kx9c7c, giving me a gutshot, flush draw, and even a gutshot straight flush draw. Checked to me, and with still a player to act behind me, I felt I had to c-bet, so I bet $30, and got called by the short stack SB, and then the weak limper raised to $130, leaving himself about $80-90 behind. I was clearly left with no fold equity, so despite hating it, I felt I had to fold as I think a hand like the nut flush draw is in his range of hands to make this move. The SB went all-in, and I got to see the hands. The SB had KQ, and the weak limper had 97 for bottom two pair. To add a bit of insult to injury the river was the 8c for a straight flush for me. Still the right play regardless of the result.
Hand #3: I open 7d6d 7 handed, and am again called by over aggro guy (I realized I should be tightening my raising range early on since I was getting called often and found myself OOP to him, and believe me, I did, it just seems like I was raising all of my suited connectors), as well as called by one of the blinds. Flop was Th6s2c, checks to me, and I decided to check to let aggro guy bet, figuring he would fire with almost 100% of his range here. Betting is probably better here, but I figured I would let him take the initiative, as my plan was call down mode. Turn was a 3s, I checked, he bet 40, and I elected to call, figuring him still for absolutely nothing. River was another 6 giving me trips, I checked, and he bet 80 - leaving himself about 80 more behind. I hemmed and hawed about raising him, but in the end just decided to call, as my read was that he was bluffing, and I didn't feel there was any value in a raise, as it would just be called by a hand that had me beat. I was shocked when he rolled over As6s and I lost the pot. His turn bet was what solidified the fact to me that he had nothing, as despite being over-aggro, he tended to check the turn when he had marginal showdown value. I guess picking up the flush draw emboldened him to bet (as it would have for me as well).
I should explain my thought process further, as I think it's where I went wrong in the hand, though in this case it wouldn't have mattered had I bet flop and bet turn. This guy also seemed to float an awful lot in position, and I felt that I could be put into a really tough spot every street by betting out and double barreling....though in the end that's exactly where I ended up. If I bet the flop and he calls, his hand still isn't very well defined given his wide range. By check calling, I was keeping his range at its widest.
Oh well, obviously I am a little confused at the spot I put myself into....folding pre-flop may be best when dealing with an opponent like this, or changing seats at the table.
Hand #4: Over aggro guy has started bleeding chips to other players, and is definitely not playing sharp, borderline tilty, and he straddled on the button to 7. Two very loose semi-aggro players call in the blinds, and it's folded to me in the CO with KQo. I feel like this one is very close, and could make a case for all of my 3 options. In the end I think Raising > Fold > Call, and I elected the high variance route and raised to 35. The button called, along with only one of the blinds (all stacks are roughly equal around $200ish). With over $100 in the pot, and only about $170 in my stack, I decided I had no choice but to commit if I hit top pair, unless something extraordinary happened like a player raising and showing me his cards after doing so in order to get me to fold. As far as C-betting, I wasn't sure what my plan would be, though I was thinking about cutting out a half pot bet at most boards if checked to me. The flop was QJx, the blind checked, I bet 50, over aggro guy shoved, blind folded and I called. It turned out I had him covered by $1. He had KT for an open ended draw. We ran it once (I never offered twice and it wasn't discussed), and my hand held up for a big pot.
Hand #5: Button straddles for 5, and the table dynamic has slightly changed, a little less aggressive. The straddler has not raised his straddle yet. A few players limp, I elect to limp the CO with Js9s. Button checks. Flop is KT8sxx. Checks to button, he bets 10, one player calls, and I call, but I hesitated, and intentionally looked kind of weak, trying to act like I had minor showdown value. Turn 3s, checks to button again, and he bets 22 with about 180 behind, other player folds and I was really close to raising, but felt that the weakness I showed earlier in the hand would be seen through and I would get looked up light, so elected to call. River was 6s giving me the flush. Since players instinctively check when a flush hits, even a backdoor one, I decided to try to bet large and look bluffy, and bet 65. He thought for about 30 seconds and called with what he said was a rivered two pair. In any case I think leading large got me the most money on the river, as he wasn't likely to call a check-raise in my opinion.
In the end I won a bit less than a buy-in, for a very swingy but profitable 4 hour session. A few parts of my game seem a bit rusty, but I also felt like I was seeing things for the most part very clearly. I may not have been mixing it up as much as I could have and fighting for every pot, but at 1/2 that just isn't necessary for the most part.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Doc's Poker - What's your play?
I had a little more than an hour to kill before my championship softball game (which was subsequently rained out), so I stopped in at Docs, which is near the field for my game. There were 2 1/2 tables going, and both tables looked good. Unfortunately my table didn't have the spewiest fish that plays in the room, it did still have a few guys who make the table great. A few hands follow.
Hand #1 - 3 bet:
I had played one hand so far, where I raised pre in LP with Q5s, and check folded a T96 flop, so my stack was about 190. EP raised to 7, which typically isn't very strong, and I 3 bet next to act with AQo. One of the blinds cold called, who I didn't have a read on, and his stack was about 300. The original raiser called as well. The flop was 853r. Blind checks, initial pre-flop raiser counts out chips like he was going to bet, and then checks. I follow through as that feels weak as hell with a cbet of 45, and the blind quickly calls, initial raiser folds. Turn is a 3, making board 8533. I was planning on betting any face card or ace, but this is a pretty bad card. I don't think I am getting a fold out of a hand like 98, or 99. He checks, and I check behind. River is a T, making board 8533T. He leads out 20 into a pot of 150ish. I have about 130 behind. Does anybody like shoving here, or is it spew? How about barreling the turn?
Hand #2 - Loose preflop call creates weird spot:
I've lost a few hands at this point, and my stack has slipped to about 185. A fish limps, and then a super fish who makes all kinds of spewy plays with marginal hands in weird spots opens to 13. The SB (initial raiser from hand #1 calls), and I make a loose call with As8s, knowing almost 100% of the time that the fish is going to call to close the action. The fish has 100, raiser has 250, and SB has 210. Flop is AxKs8x, giving me two pair. The SB leads out 25, and I elect to just call, in hopes that the initial raiser makes a committing raise, and I can go heads up with him. The first fish folds, and now super fish raises to 75 after a lot of thought and fidgeting. His mannerisms at the time screamed of uncertainty, and though that can be hollywooding, my read was genuine uncertainty. While AK, AA and KK are options, I think a hand like AJ or AQ are far more likely based on his mannerisms. But now the surprise part comes in. I was trying to convey an aura of disinterest, but was surprised by the SB, who now shoved for 210. My initial read is that the SB is aggro. All-in or fold?
Results later.
Hand #1 - 3 bet:
I had played one hand so far, where I raised pre in LP with Q5s, and check folded a T96 flop, so my stack was about 190. EP raised to 7, which typically isn't very strong, and I 3 bet next to act with AQo. One of the blinds cold called, who I didn't have a read on, and his stack was about 300. The original raiser called as well. The flop was 853r. Blind checks, initial pre-flop raiser counts out chips like he was going to bet, and then checks. I follow through as that feels weak as hell with a cbet of 45, and the blind quickly calls, initial raiser folds. Turn is a 3, making board 8533. I was planning on betting any face card or ace, but this is a pretty bad card. I don't think I am getting a fold out of a hand like 98, or 99. He checks, and I check behind. River is a T, making board 8533T. He leads out 20 into a pot of 150ish. I have about 130 behind. Does anybody like shoving here, or is it spew? How about barreling the turn?
Hand #2 - Loose preflop call creates weird spot:
I've lost a few hands at this point, and my stack has slipped to about 185. A fish limps, and then a super fish who makes all kinds of spewy plays with marginal hands in weird spots opens to 13. The SB (initial raiser from hand #1 calls), and I make a loose call with As8s, knowing almost 100% of the time that the fish is going to call to close the action. The fish has 100, raiser has 250, and SB has 210. Flop is AxKs8x, giving me two pair. The SB leads out 25, and I elect to just call, in hopes that the initial raiser makes a committing raise, and I can go heads up with him. The first fish folds, and now super fish raises to 75 after a lot of thought and fidgeting. His mannerisms at the time screamed of uncertainty, and though that can be hollywooding, my read was genuine uncertainty. While AK, AA and KK are options, I think a hand like AJ or AQ are far more likely based on his mannerisms. But now the surprise part comes in. I was trying to convey an aura of disinterest, but was surprised by the SB, who now shoved for 210. My initial read is that the SB is aggro. All-in or fold?
Results later.
Monday, August 06, 2012
Favorite Poker posts
This is specifically for Frank Panama, who recently commented on my lack of recent blog posts. Unfortunately, I don't have any new content, and may not for a while, as my wife is due to give birth in a little over 2 weeks.
But, assuming the few readers I have haven't read through all of my archives, here are a few of my favorite poker posts:
#5: Learning NL 'Holdem
Right at the beginning of my NL journey. Sometimes you lose sight of the main goal, and that is stacking people. This post shows that I knew it right away, and it's sometimes important to remind yourself of your goals.
#4: Greektown 2/5 Game
Holy shit....Greektown had a 2/5 game going? Wait, they had 2 of them???
#3: Most Idiotic Hand
How could I not mention having a large raise called on the river by 9 high?
#2: 21K!!!
I wish the recap had more hand detail when I wrote it, but it's still a nice memory of my biggest tourney score.
#1: Golf trip report of a lifetime
This post is long, includes very little actual poker content. But it does include a great deal of degeneracy, and a huge winning rush if you fight through it til the end.
But, assuming the few readers I have haven't read through all of my archives, here are a few of my favorite poker posts:
#5: Learning NL 'Holdem
Right at the beginning of my NL journey. Sometimes you lose sight of the main goal, and that is stacking people. This post shows that I knew it right away, and it's sometimes important to remind yourself of your goals.
#4: Greektown 2/5 Game
Holy shit....Greektown had a 2/5 game going? Wait, they had 2 of them???
#3: Most Idiotic Hand
How could I not mention having a large raise called on the river by 9 high?
#2: 21K!!!
I wish the recap had more hand detail when I wrote it, but it's still a nice memory of my biggest tourney score.
#1: Golf trip report of a lifetime
This post is long, includes very little actual poker content. But it does include a great deal of degeneracy, and a huge winning rush if you fight through it til the end.
Thursday, June 07, 2012
2012 Belmont Stakes Preview
It's time to preview this weekends Belmont Stakes, which has
to be the most anticipated in recent memory, firstly because of another
opportunity to capture the elusive triple crown, and secondly because for some
reason this horse has captured the attention/imagination of more people than
other previous attempts. Do I think it
will happen? We'll see...
1 - Street Life -
This one intrigues me a bit. May
have been a bit late developing, and seeming to love all the extra distance
they can throw at him. I am always
skeptical of New York horses, but this race is at Belmont, where his best race
to date is. He will have to take a step
forward, but not as much as you may think IF (big capital letters here) I'll
Have Another and Paynter take a big step backwards, which is very possible.
2 - Unstoppable U - Another that could be very late
developing, but would have to take too big of a step forward. Also not sure how much he will appreciate the
distance, so he's a pass for me.
3 - Union Rags - My feelings about him are well known. He isn't good enough to win unless he takes a
big step forward. I think he's a likely 3rd
placer here, and probably a good distance behind the top 2.
4 - Atigun - Really??
Only chance is if the track comes up muddy, and the top contenders hate
it, which I doubt.
5 - Dullahan - I'm not telling anybody anything they don't know when
I say that he is the prime threat (one of two) to upset the triple crown
shot. He has gotten better pretty much
every race, was a fast closing 3rd in the Derby, perhaps the winner if they go
another 1/16 of a mile. Sometimes that
logic is faulty though, as we saw with Ice Box in the 2010 rendition. You
have to love that he took the 5 weeks off and is coming in fresh for this. All reports are that he is training
wonderfully. Does he have more
improvement in store, or is he topped out?
Will I Have Another regress off of his Preakness win? Those are the questions you have to ask
yourself.
6 - Ravelo's Boy - ZERO CHANCE
7 - Five Sixteen - Slightly greater than ZERO chance.
8 - Guyana Star Dweej
- The horse is nowhere near good enough, and is training poorly as
well. ZERO CHANCE.
9 - Paynter - The other most likely spoiler. His career mark looks similar to I'll Have
Another, he just arrived a bit late to the party. Ran a 106 Beyer at Pimlico on Preakness Day,
which rivals IHA's 109. His sire is
Awesome Again, a winner of the Breeders Cup Classic, so you wouldn't think the
distance would be a problem. Trained by
Baffert, no stranger to the Triple Crown trail.
Could Baffert run 2nd in all the crown races, with 2 different
horses? His running style is perfect, he
should be near the front and have zero traffic troubles. In fact, he may find himself in the lead or
in the 2nd spot the whole way around.
10 - Optimizer - 11th in Derby, 6th in Preakness without
much of an excuse. The horse is simply
not fast enough.
11 - I'll Have Another - That was quite simply a huge race
in the Preakness, to run down Bodemeister, who had the lead all to
himself. That put away the naysayers of
his Derby performance, who touted his perfect trip. I love everything about the way they have handled
this horse, the keys in my mind being sending him directly to Pimlico following
the Derby, and then directly to Belmont following the Preakness, allowing him
to get acclimated to the track. He
should be right up near the front with Paynter, thus ensuring a clean trip.
Gutierrez has shown a lot of patience thus far, and now he
must fight the urge to use his horse too soon.
We have seen it time and again in the Belmont, with horses moving too
soon and getting swallowed up late, the most vivid being Spectacular Bid in
1979, Real Quiet in 1999, and Smarty Jones in 2004.
We have also seen horses who have run huge Preaknesses
regress in the Belmont, possibly from the wear and tear of the Triple
Crown. These recent examples include Big
Brown, Smarty Jones and Real Quiet.
12 - My Adonis - A late addition to the fray, and probably
not one that needs to be worried about.
Final analysis: Will
the Triple Crown happen this year? I
have learned to never count on it, as in 2008 Big Brown towered over the field
he faced, and he ran dead last. That
being said, unless chaos happens, there are only 5 horses capable of
winning. IHA, Paynter, Dullahan, Union
Rags (maybe), and I'll give Street Life a very outside chance as well.
All indications say that IHA has handled the campaign
well. His connections have handled it
well and are having fun with it. I think
he will do it. My prediction is that IHA
will enter the stretch in front, just outside of Paynter. Dullahan will be moving towards them, looking
like the winner, and will flatten out in mid-stretch. Union Rags will be coming late, but will also
flatten and finish 5th. Street Life will
come out of nowhere and run by Dullahan and Union Rags, but not threaten the
top 2.
Prediction:
1st - I'll Have Another
1st - I'll Have Another
2nd - Paynter
3rd - Street Life
4th - Dullahan
5th - Union Rags
Thursday, May 17, 2012
2012 Preakness - Betting preview
Here are my initial Preakness thoughts.
1: Tiger Walk - The
outsiders in this race are just that, outsiders. This one finished 4th in the Wood, a race in
which the top finishers performed very poorly in the Derby. Top Beyer of 90 puts him on the edge of
hitting the board, so I will play for 4th, and maybe 3rd on a ticket without
Bodemeister.
2: Teeth of the Dog -
Very lightly raced, so eligible to improve.
But another exiting the Wood Memorial, thus far a very un-key race. His running style prior to the Wood suggests
he would be close to the front, which would compromise his chances. In the Wood he raced off the pace and passed
some horses. Of the outsiders, he's the
one I feel may have the best chance of crashing the party.
3: Pretension - Has a
win over the surface, but that is about all there is to like. Top Beyer of 83 thus far, would have to
greatly improve to even hit the board.
Passing here.
4: Zetterholm - All
of his wins are against NY breds, and at Aqueduct, one of my least favorite tracks. He would also have to take a huge step
forward in his toughest race by far.
Unless he gets some of the famous Dutrow drugs, he is a toss.
5: Went The Day Well
- Was running best late in the Derby, but then again, so was Ice Box in 2010,
and I don't think he's hit the board since then. The question to answer is, did he take a step
forward due to improving, or was it more of a function of a dream pace scenario
to nearly get to the leaders? I'm
inclined to think it was a little of both.
Did the race take much out of him, especially with the troubled
trip? Perhaps, but I am inclined to
believe the connections, Team Valor and Graham Motion would have skipped the
Preakness and waited for the Belmont if there were any fitness questions.
6: Creative Cause - I
definitely like this horse. He ran a
very good 5th in the Derby, covering the most ground in the field. It wasn't the difference in him not winning
the race though, he just ran out of gas in the stretch, despite getting a dream
pace scenario. But I'm not sure I love
the handling of the horse, from the whole blinkers decision, to flying him back
to California after the Derby, then flying back to Maryland this week with a
stop at Churchill....I'm not sure I would be primed for my best performance
come Preakness, and am not sure Creative Cause will be either. I think he is very likely to be 3rd-5th,
though it's not inconceivable for him to win, I think it's unlikely. I think this trail is taking something out of
him, and will be playing him as such.
7: Bodemeister - The
key horse to this race. How do you
handle him on the ticket?
First things first, he is the best horse in this field. His Kentucky Derby was a huge race, running
blistering fractions and nearly hanging on for the win, while running a 99
Beyer. But the best horst doesn't always
win, or even hit the board.
Enough already with the talk about Trinniberg costing
Bodemeister the Derby. Watch the
Derby. Watch it again if you need
to. Bode broke fast, and Mike Smith
seized the lead, which they say was the plan.
Fine, I am ok with that. But why
go so damn fast? Trinniberg was there,
but never was really pressing Bode, never tried to grab the lead, and
Trinniberg showed that he is capable of sub 22 quarters in his previous races. So the question becomes, was it Mike Smith
just not having much pace presence, or did Bode simply want to go that
fast? I'm inclined to believe that
Smith, being a veteran of thousands of races, knows what he was doing, and
therefore Bode just wanted to go that fast.
He is a super fast horse, all of his races show basically
that. He runs on the lead or right with
the lead and carries his speed as far as it can go. US horses are bred for speed. Baffert is a former quarterhorse trainer and
trains speed into his horses. For
California horses, especially with the return to dirt at Santa Anita, speed is
a virtue.
What I am getting at here is despite the absence of apparent
speed in the race, getting an easy lead will be a myth for Bode? Do you honestly expect him to run the opening
quarter of a mile in 24 seconds? The
slowest he has ever went is 23 and 1/5 in the San Felipe. If Smith tries to hold him and throttle him
back, it may adversely affect his chances even more than going fast. So he is going to be out there winging it,
and seeing how far he can carry it.
Now a big question....Is this too much too fast for
him? This is his 5th race in 10
weeks. The Derby had to take something
out of him, despite what the owner and trainer are saying. Plum Pretty, racing for Baffert on Oaks Day,
tried to come back in 3 weeks, made an easy lead, and could only hold 3rd
against a weak field, despite looking like more of a standout than Bode is
here.
So how do I see the race playing out? I think Bode has the lead until the turn, I
expect him to be headed by I'll Have Another there, and then the biggest
questions are, 1) Does he quit?, and 2) Are there enough horses in the field
good enough to pass him down the stretch to make this ticket pay big?
At this point I say that Bode is a great horse, but is he a
monster? Until proven otherwise, I will
choose no here, and try to beat him.
8: Daddy Nose Best -
What happened to this horse in the Derby?
No apparent excuse, and he got a great pace to run at. My initial hunch about the Sunland Derby and
El Camino preps being fraudulent is starting to ring true. He got awesome trips to run at in both of
those races, and posted speed figures that are likely higher than he is capable
of producing in a normal scenario. Therefore,
I am inclined to not believe in him. To
perhaps clinch things for me, my favorite jockey, Julien Leparoux gets the
mount. That being said, I am likely to
play him on the board on a non-Bode ticket especially.
9: I'll Have Another - His Derby trip was so
good, it couldn't have possibly taken as much out of him as it did Bode. He has also beaten Creative Cause, one of the
other big threats his last two races, so it looks like he is just better than
him. He traveled to Maryland immediately
after the Derby, so he should be well acclimated to his surroundings, which is
more than I can say for most of the rest of the field. He will be able to track Bode right from the
gate, should get a great stalking trip, and as long as he came out of the Derby
well he is my pick to win.
10: Optimizer - This horse just isn't very good. His best race was against a weak field in the
Rebel, and still only yielded a 91 Beyer, his best by 8 points. I think his best chance is 4th, again maybe
3rd on a non-Bode ticket.
11: Cozzetti - He ran
4th to Bode in the Arkansas Derby, but was beaten by 10 lengths. Before that he ran 3rd to Perspective in the
Tampa Bay Derby, and he did nothing in the Kentucky Derby. So initially he looks like he should be a
toss. I'll probably play him as high as
3rd on selected tickets, and likely 4th on the rest.
Decisions, decisions:
So now how do we play this race? I'm inclined to take a stand against
Bodemeister, for better or for worse. I
know that he is the best horse in this field, but a few circumstances of the
race lead me to believe that he is more vulnerable than you would expect.
My plan is to wheel around I'll Have Another, with a
secondary key horse being Went the Day Well.
I'll probably be chasing strictly superfecta's, with my tickets framed
likely framed like this:
9 / 5 / 2,6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11 (or potentially all)
9 / 5 / 1 ,10,11 / 2,6,7,8
9 / 6,7,8 / 5 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11
9 / 6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11 / 5
And then wheeling around the 9 in 2nd and 3rd, with the 5
finishing in 1st and 2nd, with potentially the 6,7,8 on top as well.
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