A wild, deep game gets even wilder

With live racing still going on at Northville Downs, the cash games seem to be a little wilder, with the occasional horse player trying their hand at poker, and generally a busier than normal poker room that creates more of an action-y vibe.  I got in to the room around 730pm with plans to play for the rest of the night. 

The primary players driving action was Abe on my immediate left, a very loose action player, who plays way too many hands and I consider generally to be bad, though he can at least put you to tough decisions.    He was playing reasonably deep stacked the whole game ($300-600).

Eric, who I have played with before, could be pretty good, but on this particular night he was drinking and playing way too LAGGY.  In general he plays too many hands.  He knows me by name, and generally gives me a pretty wide berth.  He was on his 4th buy-in before he started winning, and built his stack up to around $900 when the night was coming to a close. 

Later on Shaun got into the game, which drove the action to an entirely different level.

I would estimate 1/2 of the pots were straddled, and a lot of the raises even in unstraddled pots were unusually large.  That created a table atmosphere where I could raise larger with my premium hands as I was still likely to get value.  

The session started out rapid fire, as I picked up 4 pocket pairs in my first 5 hands. 

Hand #1:  My first hand of the night, I picked up 88 in the BB, in a pot that got limped all the way around.  My options were make a big raise to try to thin the field, or check.  Since quite a few of the players looked sticky from past experience, I elected to check.  The flop came 3 overs and I check folded.  It felt weak, but I didn't particularly like the raising option first hand of the night.

Hand #2:  Another limped pot, of which there weren't many the rest of the night, I complete with 33 in the SB.  Flop comes 6h3h2h.  I lead 6 into an $8 pot, and get called by button, who I have never played with before.  Turn is Ts, I bet $15, and he calls again.  River is Kc, I make a weak bet to $21, and he raises to $42.  His line felt so much like a recent 2/5 hand I played at the Bellagio where a guy slow played nut flush into my bets that I was blinded by that and ignored the immediate great odds the pot was offering and folded.  He showed T6 for a turned two pair, that I'm sure he felt was best.

Hand #3:  Very next hand, my stack at about $155 as I haven't even had a chance to top off, I get KK.  Loose bad player raises to 15 in EP, one caller, and I make it 55 on the BTN.  Bad player calls and we are HU, and caller goes all-in for less, with me having about 100 behind.  Flop is Q9x, he checks, I bet 51, he shoves and I call.  Board runs out and my hand is good. 

Hand #4:  After folding in the CO, I pick up JJ in the HJ.  After limps I raise to 21 and get 2 callers.  I flop an overpair and they check-fold to my bet. 

Hand #5:   In a straddled pot there are several limpers, and I make it 35 in the CO with KK.  Abe calls on the BTN, along with Eric and one other player.  Flop is Ac9c8s, checks to me, I check, and Abe immediately declares all-in for $280 (into a pot of $140).  Both fold to me and I'm pretty sure I'm going to fold.  I think there's a reasonable chance he has an ace, as well as a reasonable chance he is on JT.  He tells me unsolicited "Whatever you want to do, run it once, run it twice...."  I debate a little further, thinking more and more that he is drawing, but decide there are better spots to get it in, and fold.  He shows JT. 

Hand #6:  Eric is stuck about 2 buy-ins now, and raises to 15 (playing about 130 or so).  He has literally been raising at least 25% of the time, so suffice it to say he doesn't have to be very strong here.  After one caller, I 3 bet AcTc to 55.  Eric goes all-in after a few seconds, folds to me and I call and hold up vs A9. 

Hand #7:  A newer player who I could characterize on the tighter side opened UTG to 12, and after 2 callers I called on the BTN with T9s.  Flop is 4 ways, and comes Q86, giving me a double gutter.  He led $21, which didn't strike me as particularly strong, and got a call from one player.  The original raiser had about $200 going into the hand.  I debated my options, and didn't feel like his lead felt very strong, so I decided to raise, with the plan of probably calling if he shoved, and shoving most turns if called.  The raiser thought for a bit and then called, and the other player folded.  Turn was a total blank deuce.  He checked and I confidently slid out a large stack of reds.  He thought for about 15 seconds and then folded, showing a Q when he did.  Eric wanted me to "show the bluff", and I quickly considered it but decided not to pour salt in the wound of the guy who folded. 

Things calmed down for a while, as I tightened up and the cards weren't particulary attractive for a while.  Was considering racking up and leaving a $400-500 winner, but with so much money in play I decided to hang around.   Then things got interesting, a player named Shaun wanted to flip Eric for his stack.   Apparently as back story Shaun had been on a massive heater, and had just taken 8K from a PLO game at a bowling alley. 

Eric didn't want to do it, so Shaun bought in for $200, after asking to buy more and getting rebuffed.  FIrst hand he goes all-in immediately and loses to a player with QQ.  Very next hand after rebuying he does the same thing and beats the same players AA with 93.  Then the very next hand he beats a different players AA with 98.  All of these were all-in pre.  Suddenly he has about $600 in front and is still raising to $100 pre every hand.  He said his goal was to ruin our game, or take Eric's stack. 

Hand #8:  I limp AdJd in EP after a limper, and Shaun raises to $40 from the BB.  Limper folds and I call.  He says "Alright, we're gonna play some poker."  I respond with a question "Are we??"   Flop is AQT, he checks, and I check behind.  Turn is a 5, he checks again, I bet $50 and he folds.

Hand #9:      Shaun had gambled his stack away again, and was back down to $200.   This hand brought up an interesting ethical spot, that I am curious how others would handle.  Straddled pot by Eric (not sure why anyone would straddle or raise now with Shaun driving action on literally 100% of hands).  Tommy calls (young player I have played with and beaten up on several times, very fun to have in the game though, and he originally set the unofficial straddle record when he did it for $160 sometime last year), and then I limp the straddle with AA.  A few seconds before that, he asks if we mind if he buys in for another $200.  Nobody objects and I say ok (following my limp).  Then he raises to 100 before the chips are delivered to him.   I ask him "Is that playing this hand?", and he says "Yes.".  Tommy calls (leaving himself 80 or so more behind.  Then I shove, and both players call.  Tommy had JTs, and I have no idea what Shaun had.  The board paired with 9's, but nothing else of significance, and my hand was good for a pot of nearly $1K. 

I don't feel like I did anything wrong here by allowing it, as he had originally asked before the hand started, but still felt a bit conflicted by it.  I know all he wanted to do was gamble, and he had no ill will about the hand in any way. 
After that hand, the charity had sold out, so I played a few more hands and left a 4 figure winner for the session.  Good times, and a nice little boost before the MSPT which I am planning on playing in at Firekeepers. 
 

A great session, for more than one reason

I arrived at Northville Downs for what was likely to be a 3-4 hour session before meeting the wife and her family for dinner nearby.  I got there right at noon, and had to wait for about 20 minutes for the first game to start.  We started with 5 players, a then the 6th player arrived shortly thereafter.  That group composed the people involved in all of my spots/hands of the session.
I feel it was the best that I played in a while.  Maybe it was because my decisions weren't the most difficult, but you will see in one of the hands below I avoided getting stacked in a spot where I probably should.

The key players were as follows:

AYK:  Aggro young kid, you know the type, plays there a decent amount, thinks he's the best in the room.  The reality is that he could be decent, but because he thinks he's so good, he plays WAY too many hands.

Al:  Pseudonym for this guy, he's basically a major fish who I love having in my game.  He can really frustrate players with the hands that he makes, and the lines that he takes.  But I've noticed in playing with him that he has a critical flaw, that is amazingly transparent to me yet somehow nobody else.  He tends to overbet, or bet very large with a nut type hand, and tends to make small bets, and even extreme underbets when he doesn't have a strong hand.

Setting the tone:

The very first hand, AYK is on the button and straddles to 5, the blinds fold, and I raise 22 UTG/HJ to 20, as expected the button calls and we are HU to the flop.  The flop comes with 3 unconnecting overcards, I believe it was Q high, and I cbet 30 and he folds. 
I felt that it was important early on to establish an aggressive image, and not allow the AYK to take control of the table. 

First big spot

Playing about 225 deep, I open QQ after a few limpers to 15.  Al re-raises on the button to 50.  He bought in for 100, and just won a fairly big hand to get his stack above mine.  This guy is super loose, and very aggressive with pre-flop raises, but not particularly aggressive with 3 bets, especially larger 3 bets.  I considered all of my options.  Certainly shoving QQ couldn't be that bad against a fish like this.  I also considered folding, as the size of his 3 bet gave me some pause.  In the end I thought I could call, and gauge his post flop action to determine if I had run into AA or KK.  I called, and the flop came KK5.  I check, and he strongly bet 100.  I thought for a bit and stared at him and he told me:  "I don't have a king."  As an aside, at that point a player to my left asked what the rule was on talking during the hand, knowing full well that the rule there is no talking allowed.  I appreciated that the dealer said something to the effect of "There's some things I don't hear.", as I don't particularly like the rule, especially when I am getting information volunteered to me.  The dealer basically told him, probably wrongly per the rules of the cardroom, to basically mind his own business when he wasn't involved in the hand. 

I asked him if he would show and he said "Sure, why not?", and I mucked face up, he proceeded to show me AA, and I immediately felt even more strongly than I already had about the hand. 

Ace Magnets

A bit later I raise KK after a few limpers to 15, and get 3 callers, all OOP to me.  Flop comes As9s4s.  Checked to me, I'm pretty sure I had the Ks, and I bet 25, first limper shoves for 39 total, rest fold.  I make sure I have the Ks and call.  He has AJ no spades.  Board blanks out and I lose.  At this point I feel pretty good about the fact that I've lost with QQ and KK, and am still only down about $25, despite not winning any showdowns. 

Another one with Al

Al opens the pot first or second to act to 15, SB calls, and I elect to just call in the BB with JJ.  Flop comes king high, we check to him, and he bets 15, SB folds and I call.  Turn is a blank, I check, he again bets 15 (bet sizing!!!) and I call.  River is a K, I check, he checks and shows TT.  Maybe I should have gotten more $ on this hand, but it helped further reinforce my bet size read. 

I get rolling

UTG (young kid short stack) opens to 15, Al calls, and I call with 99 in the BB.  This may not be the best call, but I am not purely setmining.  There are plenty of boards and actions where I am willing to continue.  Fortunately I don't have to worry about that as the flop is Q95.  I check, UTG shoves for 60, Al quickly calls.  I then shove for about 170.  Al folds JT face up.  I turn my cards over and he says he is probably drawing dead.  I never saw his cards as I rake a nice pot. 

Bluff inducement

This hand I got creative as the hand played out.  For background, I saw Al raise a smallish river bet to 50ish on a stone bluff, and get called.  For this hand, I raised A6o to 12 in MP (which I hated immediately after doing it, knowing that Al was likely to call me in position).  We ended up HU to the flop.  Flop was QJ8.  I checked and he quickly checked.  I'm 100% certain he would bet here with anything that remotely connected to this board.  Basically any pair, any gutshot, etc....  Turn was another Q, making board QJ8Q.  I checked, he bet 15, and I thought about it and called, thinking I was good.  River was an A, now I lead out 15, in hopes of inducing a raise.  He doesn't disappoint, and raises to 51.  I call knowing that if he does have an ace, that we are chopping the pot since there is no way he AK here.  He mucks without showing, and I do the same after being pushed the pot. 

Biggest hand

I open UTG to 12 with AA.  I get called by Al, and another player, and then AYK 3 bets to 50 with another 200 behind.  I 4 bet to 125, 2 players fold, and the AYK thinks for a while and calls.  I am putting him pretty strongly on QQ or JJ here, with a very outside shot at AK.  Flop comes Ax9d8d.  AYK checks, and I think for a while, and decide to give him some rope here, with only a 1/2 PSB left.  Based on the action, a free card can't hurt me, and may give him a chance to push me off of the KK that I am trying to rep.  The turn is the Ad, giving me quads.  He checks his cards, presumably to see if he has a diamond, and then shoves.  Obviously I call and he shows JJ.  Immediately after this, which means he is down about 2-3 buy-ins, he switches tables, presumably to find greener pastures. 


The rest: 

Other than that, I played pretty solidly, continuing to pick up occasional pots with Cbets.  During that same time Al was on fire, picking up pots with a full range of hands.  The most egregious, though it was a small pot, was when he called a flop bet on a board of Td8x4d, with 7d3x, and went runner runner to make a winning flush.  He also called a flop bet with a gutterball, and then ran runner runner 2 pair to scoop another pot.  About 3.5 hours into the session, I got the call to leave, and Al was racking up as well, along with another player, essentially killing the game.

The best part of it all was that I was able to make over 2 buy-ins, while at the same time Al was able to run his 100 into over 1K, thus ensuring that money makes it back into the poker community. 

2012 Poker Year in Review

As we near the end of 2012, I thought it was a good time to take stock of my poker play, look for trends, and develop some goals for next year.  As an aside, almost all of the calculations in here are automated, with very little setup required.  If anyone would like a template of my record keeping spreadsheet, I will be happy to provide, just drop your e-mail in the comments.

2012 began much like 2011 with a downswing.  This one was a quick 1K downswing while out in Vegas for a work convention.   I played 3 sessions of 2/5, losing about 1100.  Most of that trip report can be read about here and here.   I undid the damage in February, and got things into the black for good for the year in April.  May and June were my best months of the year, and after a loss in July, my play significantly dipped due to Marissa being born, as I have 9 sessions totaling 42 hours since.  Here are the graphs of my profit vs hours, and profit vs date.

      

Also, below you can see the graph of hours played by month.

I've found when I analyze my play, it helps to parse my results by a lot of different categories.

Different limits:

The first thing to look at is my results at different limits.  For the year I played mostly 1/2, and a smattering of 1/3 and 2/5.  Below are the results.

1/2:  $25/hr  (down from $30/hr in 2011 in a similar # of hours)

1/3:  Not even worth looking at as I only have 17 hours in 2 years

2/5:  -$212/hr (in 11 hours of play - down from $32/hr in 2011 in 20 hours)

Obviously the 2/5 results are horrible, though the sample size is laughably small.  Looking back at the results, in session #1 I ran QQ into KK in a big pot at the Venetian in a marginal spot, where I believe I probably could have folded to the 3 bet.  It could be considered a minor cooler.  My 2nd and 3rd session was also at the Venetian where I dropped close to a buy-in, and my only real notes say that I played weak tight.  

I played again at 2/5 at Motor City where I ran something awful, losing 2 buy-ins.  That session is chronicled here.  The 1st hand of significance involved me getting it in with top two pair on a JT5 board, only to run into a set of 5's.  The 2nd had of significance involved me getting it in with AK v a short stacks AQ, and a frustrated player's larger stack of JT, and I managed to lose both the main pot and the side pot.  

I didn't play 2/5 again until the Michigan Poker Monster March Madness party, where I started out hot, but ended up dropping a little over $100, mostly due to losing a big pot where I got all-in on the flop against an open ended straight draw where I held top set and lost on the river.  

After that session, I just never really got a chance to play 2/5 again, only going downtown twice since March, and both times sitting at 1/2.  

While the overall results are horrible, I think that these results were mostly just the bad side of variance.  Could I have played better in a few spots?  Maybe, but I think there was no way I was going to come close to breaking even with the luck that I had there. 

Conclusions?  Obviously I can kill 1/2, and I believe I can beat 2/5 pretty badly as well, but I haven't given myself enough of a shot to do it.

Different rooms: 

My play has been primarily spent at Northville Downs, with the rest of the hours being in a smattering of other rooms.

Northville Downs (48.6% of my play): $31/hr (up from $28/hr in 2011, in a similar # of hours)

Docs (20.4% of my play):  $34/hr (down from $58/hr in 2011, in a similar # of hours)

Motor City (7.5% of my play):  -$85/hr (down from $92/hr in 2011, the aforementioned 2/5 results badly skew this one)

The rest of the rooms each represent less than 5% of my play for the year, and I got time in 12 different rooms this year (last year I played in 13 different rooms).  

Obviously I need to play more at Docs as I am just killing the players there.  The problem is that the player base is smaller, and you tend to have to wait longer than I would like when I go there.  The plus side of the room is the beer selection, free food that they routinely put out, attractive servers, and of course a high win rate. 

Session length:  

This one tends to be mis-leading, as the longer sessions are usually when I have fallen behind and am trying to make a comeback, hence the lower win rate, but since my data can be parsed that way, here it is.  But I am happy to say that these results for this year are much more consistent and flat, which leads me to believe I chased a lot less this year.  This is regardless of limit, game, etc...

Less than 2 hours (24.6% of sessions):  $26/hr

2-4 hrs (37.7%):  $11/hr

4-6 hours (24.6%):  $13/hr

6-8 hours (8.2%):  $28/hr

8+ hours (6.6%):  $11/hr

Day of the week:

I have been charting this for a while, and the results for 2012 aren't really meaningful as the sample size is too small.  My lifetime records though indicate my most profitable days of the week as Thursday, then Sunday, then Monday, then Wednesday.  It's interesting to note that on Friday and Saturday, which one would think would be a players best days due to the increased recreational element, that I am barely better than break even.  I don't really have any conclusions from this, but find it interesting. 

2013 Goals: 

I believe I created one of these in draft form a year or two ago, but never sent it out.  Here's a few loose goals.  None of them are going to be associated with a win rate.  I believe I am a winning player, and if I put in the hours and play my game, while being smart and disciplined, the win rate will take care of itself.

Half of the goals will be evaluated subjectively, but unfortunately that is the nature of the beast when dealing with some of the goals that I put together.

Goal #1:  Play 200 hours in 2013.:  I need to average 17 hours per month, which is hopefully doable, as the baby gets older.  The winter should allow me to get a head start as I don't have any responsibilities such as softball or coaching Abby's teams taking up my time, and I also don't have golf competing for my free time for the first few months of the year.

Goal #2:  Play 40 hours of 2/5 or higher in 2013.  This should be a doable, as long as I am smart about bankroll, don't run awful, and make sure to visit rooms that have this limit available.  

Goal #3:  Continue to find profitable spots to 3 bet.  I wrote an article on it in 2+2 magazine, which was generally well received.  Players tend to hate it, and don't properly combat it, and just generally allow themselves to be walked all over.

Goal #4:  Continue to find ways to exploit my position.  This is kind of related to #3, in that I want to generally 3 bet in position.  But I believe my goal should be to make the player or 2 directly to my right very uncomfortable.  If I am not doing that, I am not doing my job well enough.

Goal #5:   Once I get a big stack, aggressively target other big stacks.  This is one where I feel I could definitely improve.  I try to be keenly aware of all stack sizes at the table, and am especially aware of my potential exposure every time I play a hand.  What I need to do though is to exploit players who are also aware of their exposure, especially ones who are fearful of playing deep. 

Goal #6:  I had one article published in 2012 (Low Stakes Live Light 3 Betting) which was published by 2+2 internet magazine, and that I was compensated for.  The article remains on the site for 6 months, and is no longer available there.  I'm going to start small this year and set a modest goal of 2 articles for 2013.

 

Hopefully in 12 months time I will be able to re-examine this post to see how I did about attaining my goals. 

College Bowl picks - Volume 1

Trying to focus more strongly on the Bowl games this year, in hopes of putting together a solid record. 

New Mexico Bowl -  Let's start this off by stating the obvious.  Both teams have absolutely brutal defenses, averaging 190 and 213 yards allowed on the ground.  Both teams also have dominant rushing attacks, with both averaging well north of 200 yards per game.  With the dominant offenses and piss-poor defenses, the over seems obvious, right?  You would be wrong, I am going to go the opposite direction.  Both teams running the crap out of the ball means churning out a lot of 1st downs, and allowing the clock to continue to wind.  The total is huge, 75 as of now after opening at 76.  That requires 11 TD's to beat you.  Nevada has gone over in 6 of 11 games this year, and Arizona has gone over in 8 of 11 games this year.  But Nevada has only seen a high total of 70, and Arizona only has 1 game with a total higher than we see for this game.  Add in the fact that Nevada will have 2 weeks off before playing, and Arizona 3 weeks off, and you could expect a bit of a slow start.  Those things together just make it too difficult to project this game to easily reach the 70's.  It may very well reach the 60's, but 38-31 will be fine for the under backers.  Play:  UNDER 76  3*

Potato Bowl - I'm kind of a fan of both of these teams.  Toledo has a close loss to Arizona (though they were admittedly outplayed), and has a win over a decent Cincy team, and a close loss to class of MAC Northern Illinois.  Utah State beat Utah, who wasn't very good, almost beat Wisconsin while they were reeling.  Lost to BYU in a pathetic 6-3 game, and beat La Tech, a team that plays zero defense.  Both teams played 1 point games last year in the bowls, with Toledo beating Air Force, and Utah losing to Ohio (also of the MAC).  I personally think the MAC plays some good football, and this Toledo team is led by solid QB play.  Toledo tends to play to the level of their opponents, never really blowing anyone out, but also being within a TD in all of their losses.  I think Toledo is good enough to keep this close, and is a potential threat to win.  Play:  Toledo +10



Summary:
12/15:  3*  Arizona/Nevada UNDER 76
12/15:  4*  Toledo +10 

A poker post?? Wow!

I was able to get away from the home life for my 4th short session since Marissa's birth.  It was a busy Veteran's Day Monday at Northville Downs, and to show I don't discriminate, I thought a good way to spend it would be to try to extract money from both Vets and non-Vets alike.

My table was fairly active, a lot of straddling, a lot of pre-flop raising, and even some 3 betting.  So not ideal, but a lot of the 3 betting was spewy, and there was way too much calling of 3 bets.  Therefore, still beatable, and potentially very profitable, but higher variance at the same time.  I started out winning a few smaller pots, and opened up a bit, but I folded to 3 bets on back to back hands, in both cases I had KJ, and I was back around even, and my image had started to erode.  I began playing a little too passive for a few orbits, and potentially even a bit timid, and bled through about $75-80.

Hand #1:  I topped off my stack, and UTG picked up AKo.  I raised to 10, and got called by a good sometimes overly aggressive player two to my left, who had been making my life a little difficult (Over aggro for short), and eventually was called by 5 other players as well, including both blinds, making the pot $70.  Flop was AQ7r.  Checks to me, and I bet 35, pretty sure I was going to commit unless there was a raise and a call after me.  The CO (older guy who covered) called, the button and SB also called (both with only about 50 more behind.  The turn was a 9, and now the SB shoved for 50, I reshoved for about 150, CO folded, and button called.  Somehow both players had KT, and I dodged the jack to pick up a nice pot, and I was suddenly ahead about $100. 

Hand #2:  A few hands later, 8 handed, I raised a weak limper on my right with 6c5c to $12.  I was called in 3 spots, including the limper and one of the blinds.  Flop came Kx9c7c, giving me a gutshot, flush draw, and even a gutshot straight flush draw.  Checked to me, and with still a player to act behind me, I felt I had to c-bet, so I bet $30, and got called by the short stack SB, and then the weak limper raised to $130, leaving himself about $80-90 behind.  I was clearly left with no fold equity, so despite hating it, I felt I had to fold as I think a hand like the nut flush draw is in his range of hands to make this move.  The SB went all-in, and I got to see the hands.  The SB had KQ, and the weak limper had 97 for bottom two pair.  To add a bit of insult to injury the river was the 8c for a straight flush for me.  Still the right play regardless of the result.

Hand #3:  I open 7d6d 7 handed, and am again called by over aggro guy (I realized I should be tightening my raising range early on since I was getting called often and found myself OOP to him, and believe me, I did, it just seems like I was raising all of my suited connectors), as well as called by one of the blinds.  Flop was Th6s2c, checks to me, and I decided to check to let aggro guy bet, figuring he would fire with almost 100% of his range here.  Betting is probably better here, but I figured I would let him take the initiative, as my plan was call down mode.  Turn was a 3s, I checked, he bet 40, and I elected to call, figuring him still for absolutely nothing.  River was another 6 giving me trips, I checked, and he bet 80 - leaving himself about 80 more behind.  I hemmed and hawed about raising him, but in the end just decided to call, as my read was that he was bluffing, and I didn't feel there was any value in a raise, as it would just be called by a hand that had me beat.  I was shocked when he rolled over As6s and I lost the pot.  His turn bet was what solidified the fact to me that he had nothing, as despite being over-aggro, he tended to check the turn when he had marginal showdown value.  I guess picking up the flush draw emboldened him to bet (as it would have for me as well). 

I should explain my thought process further, as I think it's where I went wrong in the hand, though in this  case it wouldn't have mattered had I bet flop and bet turn.  This guy also seemed to float an awful lot in position, and I felt that I could be put into a really tough spot every street by betting out and double barreling....though in the end that's exactly where I ended up.  If I bet the flop and he calls, his hand still isn't very well defined given his wide range.  By check calling, I was keeping his range at its widest.   

Oh well, obviously I am a little confused at the spot I put myself into....folding pre-flop may be best when dealing with an opponent like this, or changing seats at the table. 

Hand #4:  Over aggro guy has started bleeding chips to other players, and is definitely not playing sharp, borderline tilty, and he straddled on the button to 7.  Two very loose semi-aggro players call in the blinds, and it's folded to me in the CO with KQo.  I feel like this one is very close, and could make a case for all of my 3 options.  In the end I think Raising > Fold > Call, and I elected the high variance route and raised to 35.  The button called, along with only one of the blinds (all stacks are roughly equal around $200ish).  With over  $100 in the pot, and only about $170 in my stack, I decided I had no choice but to commit if I hit top pair, unless something extraordinary happened like a player raising and showing me his cards after doing so in order to get me to fold.  As far as C-betting, I wasn't sure what my plan would be, though I was thinking about cutting out a half pot bet at most boards if checked to me.  The flop was QJx, the blind checked, I bet 50, over aggro guy shoved, blind folded and I called.  It turned out I had him covered by $1.  He had KT for an open ended draw.  We ran it once (I never offered twice and it wasn't discussed), and  my hand held up for a big pot.

Hand #5:  Button straddles for 5, and the table dynamic has slightly changed, a little less aggressive.  The straddler has not raised his straddle yet.  A few players limp, I elect to limp the CO with Js9s.  Button checks.  Flop is KT8sxx.  Checks to button, he bets 10, one player calls, and I call, but I hesitated, and intentionally looked kind of weak, trying to act like I had minor showdown value.  Turn 3s, checks to button again, and he bets 22 with about 180 behind, other player folds and I was really close to raising, but felt that the weakness I showed earlier in the hand would be seen through and I would get looked up light, so elected to call.  River was 6s giving me the flush.  Since players instinctively check when a flush hits, even a backdoor one, I decided to try to bet large and look bluffy, and bet 65.  He thought for about 30 seconds and called with what he said was a rivered two pair.  In any case I think leading large got me the most money on the river, as he wasn't likely to call a check-raise in my opinion.

In the end I won a bit less than a buy-in, for a very swingy but profitable 4 hour session.  A few parts of my game seem a bit rusty, but I also felt like I was seeing things for the most part very clearly.  I may not have been mixing it up as much as I could have and fighting for every pot, but at 1/2 that just isn't necessary for the most part.

Doc's Poker - What's your play?

I had a little more than an hour to kill before my championship softball game (which was subsequently rained out), so I stopped in at Docs, which is near the field for my game.  There were 2 1/2 tables going, and both tables looked good.  Unfortunately my table didn't have the spewiest fish that plays in the room, it did still have a few guys who make the table great.  A few hands follow.

Hand #1 - 3 bet:
I had played one hand so far, where I raised pre in LP with Q5s, and check folded a T96 flop, so my stack was about 190.  EP raised to 7, which typically isn't very strong, and I 3 bet next to act with AQo.  One of the blinds cold called, who I didn't have a read on, and his stack was about 300.  The original raiser called as well.  The flop was 853r.  Blind checks, initial pre-flop raiser counts out chips like he was going to bet, and then checks.  I follow through as that feels weak as hell with a cbet of 45, and the blind quickly calls, initial raiser folds.  Turn is a 3, making board 8533.  I was planning on betting any face card or ace, but this is a pretty bad card.  I don't think I am getting a fold out of a hand like 98, or 99.  He checks, and I check behind.   River is a T, making board 8533T.  He leads out 20 into a pot of 150ish.  I have about 130 behind.  Does anybody like shoving here, or is it spew?  How about barreling the turn? 

Hand #2 - Loose preflop call creates weird spot:
I've lost a few hands at this point, and my stack has slipped to about 185.  A fish limps, and then a super fish who makes all kinds of spewy plays with marginal hands in weird spots opens to 13.  The SB (initial raiser from hand #1 calls), and I make a loose call with As8s, knowing almost 100% of the time that the fish is going to call to close the action.  The fish has 100, raiser has 250, and SB has 210.  Flop is AxKs8x, giving me two pair.  The SB leads out 25, and I elect to just call, in hopes that the initial raiser makes a committing raise, and I can go heads up with him.  The first fish folds, and now super fish raises to 75 after a lot of thought and fidgeting.   His mannerisms at the time screamed of uncertainty, and though that can be hollywooding, my read was genuine uncertainty.  While AK, AA and KK are options, I think a hand like AJ or AQ are far more likely based on his mannerisms.  But now the surprise part comes in.  I was trying to convey an aura of disinterest, but was surprised by the SB, who now shoved for 210.  My initial read is that the SB is aggro.  All-in or fold?

Results later. 

Favorite Poker posts

This is specifically for Frank Panama, who recently commented on my lack of recent blog posts.  Unfortunately, I don't have any new content, and may not for a while, as my wife is due to give birth in a little over 2 weeks.

But, assuming the few readers I have haven't read through all of my archives, here are a few of my favorite poker posts:

#5:  Learning NL 'Holdem
Right at the beginning of my NL journey.  Sometimes you lose sight of the main goal, and that is stacking people.  This post shows that I knew it right away, and it's sometimes important to remind yourself of your goals.

#4:  Greektown 2/5 Game
Holy shit....Greektown had a 2/5 game going?  Wait, they had 2 of them???

#3:  Most Idiotic Hand
How could I not mention having a large raise called on the river by 9 high?

#2:  21K!!!
I wish the recap had more hand detail when I wrote it, but it's still a nice memory of my biggest tourney score.

#1:  Golf trip report of a lifetime
This post is long, includes very little actual poker content.  But it does include a great deal of degeneracy, and a huge winning rush if you fight through it til the end.

2012 Belmont Stakes Preview

It's time to preview this weekends Belmont Stakes, which has to be the most anticipated in recent memory, firstly because of another opportunity to capture the elusive triple crown, and secondly because for some reason this horse has captured the attention/imagination of more people than other previous attempts.  Do I think it will happen?  We'll see...

1 - Street Life -  This one intrigues me a bit.  May have been a bit late developing, and seeming to love all the extra distance they can throw at him.  I am always skeptical of New York horses, but this race is at Belmont, where his best race to date is.  He will have to take a step forward, but not as much as you may think IF (big capital letters here) I'll Have Another and Paynter take a big step backwards, which is very possible.

2 - Unstoppable U - Another that could be very late developing, but would have to take too big of a step forward.  Also not sure how much he will appreciate the distance, so he's a pass for me.

3 - Union Rags - My feelings about him are well known.  He isn't good enough to win unless he takes a big step forward.  I think he's a likely 3rd placer here, and probably a good distance behind the top 2.

4 - Atigun - Really??  Only chance is if the track comes up muddy, and the top contenders hate it, which I doubt.

5 - Dullahan - I'm not telling anybody anything they don't know when I say that he is the prime threat (one of two) to upset the triple crown shot.  He has gotten better pretty much every race, was a fast closing 3rd in the Derby, perhaps the winner if they go another 1/16 of a mile.  Sometimes that logic is faulty though, as we saw with Ice Box in the 2010 rendition.   You have to love that he took the 5 weeks off and is coming in fresh for this.  All reports are that he is training wonderfully.  Does he have more improvement in store, or is he topped out?  Will I Have Another regress off of his Preakness win?  Those are the questions you have to ask yourself.

6 - Ravelo's Boy - ZERO CHANCE

7 - Five Sixteen - Slightly greater than ZERO chance.

8 - Guyana Star Dweej  - The horse is nowhere near good enough, and is training poorly as well.  ZERO CHANCE.

9 - Paynter - The other most likely spoiler.  His career mark looks similar to I'll Have Another, he just arrived a bit late to the party.  Ran a 106 Beyer at Pimlico on Preakness Day, which rivals IHA's 109.  His sire is Awesome Again, a winner of the Breeders Cup Classic, so you wouldn't think the distance would be a problem.  Trained by Baffert, no stranger to the Triple Crown trail.  Could Baffert run 2nd in all the crown races, with 2 different horses?  His running style is perfect, he should be near the front and have zero traffic troubles.  In fact, he may find himself in the lead or in the 2nd spot the whole way around.

10 - Optimizer - 11th in Derby, 6th in Preakness without much of an excuse.  The horse is simply not fast enough.

11 - I'll Have Another - That was quite simply a huge race in the Preakness, to run down Bodemeister, who had the lead all to himself.  That put away the naysayers of his Derby performance, who touted his perfect trip.  I love everything about the way they have handled this horse, the keys in my mind being sending him directly to Pimlico following the Derby, and then directly to Belmont following the Preakness, allowing him to get acclimated to the track.  He should be right up near the front with Paynter, thus ensuring a clean trip.  

Gutierrez has shown a lot of patience thus far, and now he must fight the urge to use his horse too soon.  We have seen it time and again in the Belmont, with horses moving too soon and getting swallowed up late, the most vivid being Spectacular Bid in 1979, Real Quiet in 1999, and Smarty Jones in 2004.  

We have also seen horses who have run huge Preaknesses regress in the Belmont, possibly from the wear and tear of the Triple Crown.  These recent examples include Big Brown, Smarty Jones and Real Quiet. 

12 - My Adonis - A late addition to the fray, and probably not one that needs to be worried about.

Final analysis:  Will the Triple Crown happen this year?  I have learned to never count on it, as in 2008 Big Brown towered over the field he faced, and he ran dead last.  That being said, unless chaos happens, there are only 5 horses capable of winning.  IHA, Paynter, Dullahan, Union Rags (maybe), and I'll give Street Life a very outside chance as well. 

All indications say that IHA has handled the campaign well.  His connections have handled it well and are having fun with it.  I think he will do it.  My prediction is that IHA will enter the stretch in front, just outside of Paynter.  Dullahan will be moving towards them, looking like the winner, and will flatten out in mid-stretch.  Union Rags will be coming late, but will also flatten and finish 5th.  Street Life will come out of nowhere and run by Dullahan and Union Rags, but not threaten the top 2.

Prediction:
1st - I'll Have Another

2nd - Paynter

3rd - Street Life

4th - Dullahan

5th - Union Rags

2012 Preakness - Betting preview

Here are my initial Preakness thoughts.

1:  Tiger Walk - The outsiders in this race are just that, outsiders.  This one finished 4th in the Wood, a race in which the top finishers performed very poorly in the Derby.  Top Beyer of 90 puts him on the edge of hitting the board, so I will play for 4th, and maybe 3rd on a ticket without Bodemeister.

2:  Teeth of the Dog - Very lightly raced, so eligible to improve.  But another exiting the Wood Memorial, thus far a very un-key race.  His running style prior to the Wood suggests he would be close to the front, which would compromise his chances.   In the Wood he raced off the pace and passed some horses.  Of the outsiders, he's the one I feel may have the best chance of crashing the party.

3:  Pretension - Has a win over the surface, but that is about all there is to like.  Top Beyer of 83 thus far, would have to greatly improve to even hit the board.  Passing here.  

4:  Zetterholm - All of his wins are against NY breds, and at Aqueduct, one of my least favorite tracks.  He would also have to take a huge step forward in his toughest race by far.  Unless he gets some of the famous Dutrow drugs, he is a toss.

5:  Went The Day Well - Was running best late in the Derby, but then again, so was Ice Box in 2010, and I don't think he's hit the board since then.  The question to answer is, did he take a step forward due to improving, or was it more of a function of a dream pace scenario to nearly get to the leaders?  I'm inclined to think it was a little of both.  Did the race take much out of him, especially with the troubled trip?  Perhaps, but I am inclined to believe the connections, Team Valor and Graham Motion would have skipped the Preakness and waited for the Belmont if there were any fitness questions.  

6:  Creative Cause - I definitely like this horse.  He ran a very good 5th in the Derby, covering the most ground in the field.  It wasn't the difference in him not winning the race though, he just ran out of gas in the stretch, despite getting a dream pace scenario.  But I'm not sure I love the handling of the horse, from the whole blinkers decision, to flying him back to California after the Derby, then flying back to Maryland this week with a stop at Churchill....I'm not sure I would be primed for my best performance come Preakness, and am not sure Creative Cause will be either.  I think he is very likely to be 3rd-5th, though it's not inconceivable for him to win, I think it's unlikely.  I think this trail is taking something out of him, and will be playing him as such.  

7:  Bodemeister - The key horse to this race.  How do you handle him on the ticket? 

First things first, he is the best horse in this field.  His Kentucky Derby was a huge race, running blistering fractions and nearly hanging on for the win, while running a 99 Beyer.  But the best horst doesn't always win, or even hit the board.

Enough already with the talk about Trinniberg costing Bodemeister the Derby.  Watch the Derby.  Watch it again if you need to.  Bode broke fast, and Mike Smith seized the lead, which they say was the plan.  Fine, I am ok with that.  But why go so damn fast?  Trinniberg was there, but never was really pressing Bode, never tried to grab the lead, and Trinniberg showed that he is capable of sub 22 quarters in his previous races.  So the question becomes, was it Mike Smith just not having much pace presence, or did Bode simply want to go that fast?  I'm inclined to believe that Smith, being a veteran of thousands of races, knows what he was doing, and therefore Bode just wanted to go that fast.  

He is a super fast horse, all of his races show basically that.  He runs on the lead or right with the lead and carries his speed as far as it can go.  US horses are bred for speed.  Baffert is a former quarterhorse trainer and trains speed into his horses.  For California horses, especially with the return to dirt at Santa Anita, speed is a virtue.  

What I am getting at here is despite the absence of apparent speed in the race, getting an easy lead will be a myth for Bode?  Do you honestly expect him to run the opening quarter of a mile in 24 seconds?  The slowest he has ever went is 23 and 1/5 in the San Felipe.  If Smith tries to hold him and throttle him back, it may adversely affect his chances even more than going fast.  So he is going to be out there winging it, and seeing how far he can carry it.  

Now a big question....Is this too much too fast for him?  This is his 5th race in 10 weeks.  The Derby had to take something out of him, despite what the owner and trainer are saying.  Plum Pretty, racing for Baffert on Oaks Day, tried to come back in 3 weeks, made an easy lead, and could only hold 3rd against a weak field, despite looking like more of a standout than Bode is here.

So how do I see the race playing out?  I think Bode has the lead until the turn, I expect him to be headed by I'll Have Another there, and then the biggest questions are, 1) Does he quit?, and 2) Are there enough horses in the field good enough to pass him down the stretch to make this ticket pay big?

At this point I say that Bode is a great horse, but is he a monster?  Until proven otherwise, I will choose no here, and try to beat him.  

8:  Daddy Nose Best - What happened to this horse in the Derby?  No apparent excuse, and he got a great pace to run at.  My initial hunch about the Sunland Derby and El Camino preps being fraudulent is starting to ring true.  He got awesome trips to run at in both of those races, and posted speed figures that are likely higher than he is capable of producing in a normal scenario.  Therefore, I am inclined to not believe in him.  To perhaps clinch things for me, my favorite jockey, Julien Leparoux gets the mount.  That being said, I am likely to play him on the board on a non-Bode ticket especially. 

 9:  I'll Have Another - His Derby trip was so good, it couldn't have possibly taken as much out of him as it did Bode.  He has also beaten Creative Cause, one of the other big threats his last two races, so it looks like he is just better than him.  He traveled to Maryland immediately after the Derby, so he should be well acclimated to his surroundings, which is more than I can say for most of the rest of the field.  He will be able to track Bode right from the gate, should get a great stalking trip, and as long as he came out of the Derby well he is my pick to win.

10:  Optimizer - This horse just isn't very good.  His best race was against a weak field in the Rebel, and still only yielded a 91 Beyer, his best by 8 points.  I think his best chance is 4th, again maybe 3rd on a non-Bode ticket.  

11:  Cozzetti - He ran 4th to Bode in the Arkansas Derby, but was beaten by 10 lengths.  Before that he ran 3rd to Perspective in the Tampa Bay Derby, and he did nothing in the Kentucky Derby.  So initially he looks like he should be a toss.  I'll probably play him as high as 3rd on selected tickets, and likely 4th on the rest.

Decisions, decisions:

So now how do we play this race?  I'm inclined to take a stand against Bodemeister, for better or for worse.  I know that he is the best horse in this field, but a few circumstances of the race lead me to believe that he is more vulnerable than you would expect.  

My plan is to wheel around I'll Have Another, with a secondary key horse being Went the Day Well.   I'll probably be chasing strictly superfecta's, with my tickets framed likely framed like this:

9 / 5 / 2,6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11 (or potentially all)

9 / 5 / 1 ,10,11 / 2,6,7,8 

9 / 6,7,8 / 5 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11

9 / 6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,11 / 5

And then wheeling around the 9 in 2nd and 3rd, with the 5 finishing in 1st and 2nd, with potentially the 6,7,8 on top as well. 

Kentucky Derby 2012 trip report

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Thursday saw us leave Michigan around 4pm.  Al by himself in one car, Erik, Dave and Doug in Erik's car, and myself and Jim in my car.  We stopped for a bite at Arby's somewhere in Ohio, picked up Mert in Cincy, and made it to Louisville around 11pm.  After checking into the hotel, this time the Comfort Suites in Louisville on Paramount Parkway - which we got for a song at a rate of $109 per night, they were going for $429 per night online a few days before the trip - we made our way out for what is now the annual trip to Trixies.  

After we got there (minus Al, who apparently fell asleep in his room and missed the festivities), we immediately started on the beer, as well as shooting pool.  The vibe was pretty dead when we got there, and the "dancers" were about the same.  A few girls were trying to get our attention, but they were nasty, and we were more interested in our own thing than what little they had to offer.  At this point Erik discovered the punching bag machine, where your punch strength is measured.  Here is some video of Erik running across the bar to get a head of steam before punching it.  Here is a link in case the embedded video below doesn't work.

Also here is Jim punching said machine.  Here is a link in case the embedded video below doesn't work.

Our group must have put $100+ into that machine at $1 a pop throughout the night, betting more and more money as the night went on.  Finally near the end I decided to give it a go.  I figured I would be one of the weakest ones, but once I saw Dave's piss poor effort, I figured there was no way I could do worse.  It turned out that I had the second highest score of the night, which was much to the chagrin of people who were betting against me.   Unfortunately, I wasn't able to make much on myself for whatever reason.  Theories were abound as to how I was able to get the 2nd highest number, with Dan's theory being that since I am an Engineer, I was able to somehow determine the optimum angle of attack / trajectory.  My theory is that most of the guys are bigger pussies than they think, while I am less of a pussy than they think.

We ended up staying until 3am, which as usual makes Oaks day difficult to handle.  

Friday, May 4, 2012 - Oaks Day

We grabbed the usual parking spots at Charlie and Phil's, had some beers for the road, and made our way to Churchill. The day started off slowly, with a few marginal hits.  Sonny hit a few signers, but he was putting a lot into the races to hit them, so while building a profit, it wasn't as big as it would have seemed.   In the 6th race, 2011 Kentucky Oaks runner Plum Pretty looked very good on paper, but my friend Erin had a theory that she was tired, and was vulnerable.  I have no recollection about how I profited from that race, but I am fairly sure I did, as she ran 3rd behind Juanita and St Johns River.  

Then in the 7th race I got something going with a superfecta that I shared with the Dave and Erik.  I didn't think we had it at first, I think I wheeled on the 21-1 longshot in 1st and 2nd, and she ran 3rd, but then I realized I did have her for 3rd on one ticket, and the longest shot on the board ran 4th.  I had also started a pick 5 ticket with both Dave and Erik on this race, where most of the money was focused on the winner of the 7th race, and singling on Stephanies Kitten in the 8th, who I felt was a standout in that field.  Unfortunately, because I had opened a pick 5 already, I chose not to open any pick 4 tickets, since the combinations were duplicated.  The 8th race went as expected with Stephanies Kitten winning by a comfortable 2 lengths.  The 9th race was a good result, as the 3rd choice, Successful Dan won, which helps the pk5 payout as well.  The 10th race was a difficult race, and my two key horses were the 13 and 14.  Because of my pick 5, I chose not to put money into the race, and was slightly upset to see the race come in 13-10-14, and pay $14K on the superfecta, and $1300 on the trifecta.  But, we were through with the 3rd choice again in the pick 5.  There was also a long weather delay before the 10th race, where they actually evacuated the infield and grandstand, so part of the reason I didn't bet the race was because of uncertainty with (A) whether the race would stay on the turf, and (B) how the track would be playing following the rain. 

The Oaks was closing out the pick 5, and we thought the race was very wide open.  We had 6 possible horses to win, with some really good payoffs on the longshots.  Our hopes were rewarded when Rosie Napravnik brought in Believe You Can at 14-1 to win the Oaks, getting us one of our best results, a payout of $1595 for the .50 cent pick 5.  It was the first pick 5 that I had ever hit.  As I mentioned before, the pick 4 which I had neglected to play and was easy to hit based on my handicapping, as I got it AABA, paid $750 on a .50 cent bet.  

By the conclusion of Oaks Day, most people were doing well, with Sonny up over 1K, myself up about 200.  Al was up, and Dave and Erik weren't doing badly either.  The only person not doing so well was Doug, who was the victim of losing some large win bets on prohibitive favorites.  

After the Oaks, we went to the Mexican restaurant next to the hotel.  Seeing that the following day was Cinco de Mayo, it not only seemed appropriate, it seemed prudent since the following day would likely be very crowded.  I could barely touch my burrito due to the copious amounts of chips and salsa I consumed prior the burrito delivery.  Sonny ordered the "Burrito gigante", which lived up to its name.  We played credit card roulette for the bill, which Doug lost.  Fortunately for Doug, he and Jim bought insurance for each other, so they split the bill.

After the Mexican food, a few of us went out to the Godfather, a place we have been a time or two.  It was me, Jim, Doug, Sonny and Erin who were the troopers.  Not much to add here, as we just had some beers and shot the shit.

Saturday, May 5, 2012 - Derby day

Derby day started out well.  We got to our normal parking place, and Al actually paid for a guy to "shuttle" us to the entrance in a golf cart.  This would save from the inevitable "chaf-age" from walking far in the heat.  Unfortunately, the golf cart couldn't go all the way to the main entrance due to the way pedestrian/vehicle traffic was routed, so it didn't end up saving us much time or effort. 

    

When we got to the track, I kept my betting fairly small for the most part.  Part of the problem was that the races were difficult, part of it was that I wasn't feeling well, and part of it was that I was showing a little bit of discipline, since my horse betting has been pretty bad since last years Derby.  So I apologize to anyone who was counting on any of my handicapping and/or help on the days races.  The sad truth is that I likely wouldn't have been a lot of help. 

It appeared to be a sound decision on my part, as nobody in our group seemed to be doing anything very well, save for Jim, who continued to be mysterious with his betting for the entire weekend.  (He did buy picks from some online source....I doubt they did very well).  For the weekend then I have absolutely no clue how well he did, somewhere between winning a grand and losing 2 grand I would say (I told you he was being mysterious).  

It also didn't seem to be a very prudent idea to put much money into races I had handicapped for 10-20 minutes, in comparison to the Derby which I had spent 10-20 hours handicapping and thinking about.  So I was essentially saving myself for the Derby.  

As expected, we had no shortage of money to put into the Derby superfecta.  Previous years we have put in 1440, 1500ish, 2000ish, and 2400.  This year our team put together 4K to put into the race, and that was with Sonny putting in far less than he had invested in previous years, leaving him only 25% of our tickets.   Knowing it was a tough race, I knew we needed all of the money we could put together.  

Everyone in our team agreed to key Gemologist, which apparently turned out to be very wrong.  But we had difficulty identifying a 2nd horse to key.  I liked Bodemeister a lot, but it didn't make a lot of sense to key on 2 horses who were likely to be near the front of what we expected to be quick early fractions.  After much debate and discussion, we settled on Union Rags, despite the linked article where I basically shit on his chances.  The reason being that even though he wasn't likely good enough to win, he appeared to run a decent race every time, and that race gave him a decent shot at hitting the board.  Plus, he was likely to be off of the hot pace.  Here's how we shaped our tickets, and how the investors shook out.

As we tend to say in horse racing, you can't play em' all, and I'll Have Another was one of the last horses we eliminated from the win portion of the ticket, and I even went as far as to recommend throwing him completely off of the ticket.  My reasoning made sense, in that from the 19 hole I expected him to be very forwardly placed, as that was the running style he had shown in all of his previous races.  Consequently, I expected him to be hung 4-5 wide on the first turn, while tracking a very hot pace.  His jockey, being in his first Kentucky Derby and relatively inexperienced, would not be capable of calming himself down, or his horse, and would burn his energy out very early.  Essentially I'll Have Another got the trip that I was thinking/hoping that Gemologist would get. 

What happened in reality was that I'll Have Another was able to get him into a great position entering the first turn about two spots out from the rail, and in an area where he was almost all by himself, with no traffic around him.  This was the key to the victory in my opinion.  In almost every Derby, the winner finds himself in a great spot on the first turn, and encounters very little traffic the whole way. 

Mike Smith on the other hand, I'm not sure what he was doing all Derby day....first he moves WAY too soon on Amazombie, basically heading Shackleford on the turn.  Shackleford is as game as they come, and you don't want to run neck and neck with him for over 1/4 of a mile, especially when the distance is more of a question for your horse than his.  Then in the Derby, he immediately seizes the lead from the start on Bodemeister, which apparently was the plan of Bob Baffert all along.  This part I have no problem with, but the part I do have a problem with is them blaming Trinniberg for the hot pace.  Trinniberg was up close, but it didn't appear to me that he at any time tried to get the lead from Bodemeister.  Smith just didn't harness enough of his speed to last, and consequently ran through lightening fast fractions, and ran a HUGE race to nearly hold on.  

So as I said before, I take the blame for leaving the winner off of our tickets, but since our key horses both missed the board, it wasn't to be.  I will take the credit for predicting Rags poor run and bad trip in my previous write-up.  It appears Julien Leparoux will lose the mount on him, after failing to follow instructions, and even going as far as suggesting that he heard a pop on Rags on the turn, yet still riding him to a closing 7th place finish.  What's the deal Julien?  If he was hurt, why continue riding him?  Just admit that you gave him yet another bad ride, and that you are afraid of sticking a horse in a tight spot Calvin Borel style.

As an aside, I read an article on the Derby the other day that bears mentioning.  The article basically suggested that unless you have top end speed (like Bodemeister), the outside/auxiliary gate is where you not only want to be, but NEED to be.  This means posts 15-20.  The likelihood of you getting a cleaner trip far outweigh any ground you are going to lose.  This is a point that I definitely already knew, however the top end speed thing is something I hadn't thought of but makes sense.  I will not let drawing an outside post position affect me one iota, unless they are a horse I expect on the lead.  

Basically the entire group got whitewashed on the Derby, save for Erin hitting a small win bet on the winner.  I hit a win bet in one of the last 2 races, but basically ended up down about a grand on Derby day, with basically all of it coming on the Derby itself.  

Following the Derby, we decided to hit the Chinese buffet.  I suggested this was a bad intestinal idea (as Dan will affirm to, since he spent 30+ minutes in the community bathroom in the hotel).  What was another bad idea was the credit card roulette, which saw me losing and footing the $150 bill.  I have probably lost 3 of my last 6 times at CCR, and decided that credit card will be retired from the battle, and I proceeded to use another on at breakfast the next morning.  

After dinner, a few of us (Me, Dave, Erik, Jim, Sonny and Doug) went back to Trixies.  We managed to get Jim  and Dave a nice motorboat, and Sonny broke our groups record at the punching bag machine.  I neglected to try, as I didn't think I could beat Sonny's mark, and also didn't want to hurt my hand anymore than it already did (from an errant shot two nights before).  

The aftermath

Overall a very fun trip, despite ending in financial disappointment for all.  Hopefully I'm able to apply some of the lessons learned from this year's Derby into next years Derby.

My next effort at credit card roulette, using a different credit card at the Waffle House nearby the hotel, was successful, as Erik was the victim. 

Lessons learned

As I mentioned before.  We've seen it countless times.  The auxiliary gate is the place to be.  It's not good, but the inside is "less good".  

For god's sake, when there is a horse with standout speed figures, ala Bodemeister, make that horse one of your key horses. 

Just because you have Pick 5 tickets live, doesn't mean you can't play Pick 4, especially when you have a few strong opinions upcoming.  That decision likely cost me at least $750.